What's the mood at Lib Dem conference?

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0:22Hello and welcome to Coffeehouse Shots, the Spectator's daily politics podcast. I'm Patrick Gibbons and today I'm joined by our Deputy Political Editor James Heal and Michael Stevens, Senior Associate Fellow at RECI, friend of the pod, who is since we last spoke the prospective parliamentary candidate for Maidstone for the Liberal Democrats. Now, James, the conference season continues and we're in Brighton today and it has to be said that the sun always seems to shine from Liberal Democrat conference. Does the weather fit the mood for the Lib Dems? I think sunny, but with the prospect of clouds on the horizon, would certainly sum up what I'm hearing.

0:57Look, I mean, two years ago, we were here in this exact venue and the Liberal Democrats were delighted. And I think maybe that is at the back of everyone's minds when we compare it to today. So at that conference, they were having a sort of extended election party. They'd just won 71 MPs. They'd obviously had their best ever haul in 100 years or so. I think two years on, there's now a creeping sense of frustration about what the party is doing with those MPs. So I think what we're seeing is a sharper messaging. And I think that maybe is marching with the times to an extent. You know, in the seats that they won in 2024, these are some of the loveliest parts of England.

1:33I remember talking to a Tory friend of mine who described them as the sort of having a lovely time seats. Very much traditionally the places where you go for the English social season, places like Wimbledon, places like Henley, going Liberal Democrat after being long held Tory seats. But these seats now are not having such a lovely time. To take Bicester, for instance, which is Callum Miller's seat, who was on the podcast yesterday. They've now got the Piddington migrant village across the southeast of England. You're starting to see the trickle down effects of mass migration, either legal or illegal.

2:04And I think that what we're now seeing is the party's spokesman demanding responses to that and also trying to put a bit more meat on the bones. I have to say, I think that when I listened to Ed Davies address on Saturday, some of that was a bit more substantive than before. But then you go back to the Q &A he gave to members yesterday where he was very much talking about the greatest hits, you know, electoral reform and a bit more about getting closer to Europe. A lot of the stuff they've done is defining themselves as the anti-party, anti-Trump, anti-Musk, anti-reform. And I just wonder whether, Patrick, now we're seeing an element of a conservative revival under Kemmy Baden-Ock, albeit one that hasn't translated in parts of the country yet, whether it makes it harder for Ed Davey to have this framing around Lib Dem versus reform, civility versus tyranny, the kind of framing that worked over the past two years or so.

2:59And I'm really struck, actually, by how a number of key staff in Davies' team who were there in 2024 are no longer there. You've now got James Holt and the political director. And I think the party is really the message from the top is trying to keep everyone's nerves, holding it all together. Don't do a thing rash and silly at a time when there's a bit of sense of maybe a team that has long suffered kind of mid-table finishes, having a bit of cup success. And now they want to taste for more. So trying to say, look, guys, things are going pretty well now. Let's not ruin it. Keep it all together.

3:30And if there's an election in 12 months, we can stand to get up close to 100 seats. Yeah, I thought it was striking that Ed has, he sort of continued with some of his, I don't know if you want to call them stunts, but some of his kind of visuals. He calls them visuals. Yeah, visuals. So he was pictured working in a chippy, handing out fish and chips. You know, he was out on, I think, Sunday morning picking litter up from Brighton Beach. But there was noticeably less fanfare than perhaps the sort of like marching band of Bournemouth last year. So is that is that them sort of trying to show that they're a bit more serious?

4:03Yes, I think that they have to try and get publicity how they can. I think you're right. In fact, I think last year, maybe Ed Day looked like he was having perhaps too much fun. I mean, I think I christened him the Mr. Tumble of British politics. He was more like a kid's entertainer. But they're doing more sort of in the vein of trying to be quintessentially English, suggesting that one nation Tories that were the bedrock of the party across as much of the South have gone to them, the Tunbridge Tories. But really, I think a combination of the visuals and, as I say, more policy. You've got a series of announcements that also make the most of the talents.

4:35I mean, people like Max Wilkinson has got an announcement today on crime. You've seen people like Mira Wilson on education, Al Pinkerton talk about foreign policy. I think it's an attempt to build out the team. So it's not just a photo of a Davey in a wetsuit, as charming as that may be. And Michael, I mentioned at the beginning that obviously regular Shots listeners will be familiar with you coming on to talk about foreign policy. but since you've last been on the programme, you're a PPC for the Lib Dems now. How's that gone for you? And perhaps for listeners, you could sort of lift the veil a little bit on the process.

5:08Sure. Well, it's hard work. Being a Lib Dem parliamentary candidate, there's no parachuting. I had to work for six to seven months to get selected here in Maidstone. I had to canvas all the party membership. I had to get their approval. and there was a voting process where I was up against a very strong local candidate who was the mayor of Maidstone and it was a tough fight. And, you know, you feel very much when you're in situ that you've been approved by the party and I think they saw someone like me at least as a reflection of the direction they wanted to go. And obviously it's well known that I did used to be a One Nation Conservative, so I'm not going to be on the left of the party.

5:53And they were very accepting of that. And that's the same through the selection process. I was very open about the fact that I'd come from a different political party. And it's quite hard work. I mean, you have to do an hour written test on manifestos. And that includes the Reform Manifesto, the Tory Manifesto and the Labour Manifesto. And if you don't know their positions, you will not get accepted to go through the process. So it's a very complex series of steps that you must do. But at the same time, I'm very happy that I went through it and the quality control was very good. And I went through it in the Conservative Party as well.

6:27And both processes are pretty rigorous. I would say the Lib Dem process was more rigorous. You know, you mentioned having been a One Nation Tory before and Maidstone, I believe, has voted sort of solidly Conservative up until now. The Lib Dems have won swathes of seats across the southeast. So presumably you obviously feel that they haven't reached the ceiling in the southeast. And how do you feel they and you can appeal to those kind of voters that you need to win over in a seat like Maidstone? Yeah. And obviously I was selected very early. Now, look, there could be a general election in a couple of months time.

6:58It really depends on what Andy Burnham wants to do. But if we assume that it's going to be in 2029, I have three years in place here to build support in the seat, to build the structure in the party and to raise funds. and that's an indication that they're taking southeast England very seriously. We have a very strong party next to us in Tunbridge Wells and they are obviously a source of strength and support in Maidstone. We have a growing presence as well in Sevenoaks and Tunbridge. So in that southeastern corner of England where you have an interesting mix of local people from Kent, people coming from London and growing middle classes that have left London because of cost of living, there's a changing demographic.

7:41And, you know, that's reflected in the fact that the house building targets out here are very aggressive. It's about 1500 new houses a year we have to build and they got to be filled by people. Now, many of them will be from Kent, but a lot of them will also be from London. And the changing demographics in the area, I think, certainly are reflective of a different type of politics. Now, that does not mean that reform don't have a presence here. Of course they do uh we are the county closest to where all the boats are landing and that plays heavily on people's minds cost of living plays heavily on people's minds and we we've been focused very much and especially on the last two days of conference about that cost of living aspect and um we have to have a message that that makes people feel that they're included and obviously the gaps are growing between the haves and the have-nots and you know as a lib dem out here yes we are not in Twickenham we are not in Richmond there are parts of Kent where people feel very let down by central London by the system and as a local Lib Dem what you have to do is get out on the ground with your councillors and we have a lot of councillors here that do very good local work.

8:48Kemi Badenock might say you know we build church roofs the thing about that is that people see it and when you do local things and you change the dial on I don't know fixing a roundabout or whatever. That's the sort of tangible thing that people notice. So even if, let's say, you know, our polling doesn't go back to 15, we focus on the local issues, we get them done, and then people feel heard. And that's the thing I would stress, and I think is very different from my Lib Dem colleagues in a Richmond or a Twickenham, is that people here need to feel heard. If they don't feel heard and listened to, then, you know, that Farage narrative starts to stick.

9:26And that's what we've got to fight. James, when I spoke to Lib Dem figures and talk about kind of this sort of stagnation around the polls of sort of 10 percent, and you interviewed Callum Miller, the foreign affairs spokesperson for the for the podcast yesterday. And, you know, he was quick to point out this sort of era of five party politics being partly to blame. But Lib Dem figures would sort of say back to me, well, if you look back at the local elections earlier this year, you know, it might not have got as much attention, but the Lib Dems did increase their councillors. They did increase their councils, even if it was modestly.

9:55You know, is that something that will give that will have given Lib Dems in areas like Michael's comfort despite the polls? Yeah, of course. And it gives them a good line. You know, winning is a habit and people want to keep winning. So you therefore had yesterday Josh Barbarunde doing the media briefing and saying we've won eight councillors for eight consecutive years running. Now, of course, that's because they started from a very low base in the aftermath of the coalition and the Brexit wars. But, you know, it can keep saying that. But I was struck, you know, sitting in the conference yesterday, listening to Davies Q &A.

10:24There was some of the first round of applause that happened was when Carolyn Quinn pointed out that people want them to do more nationally. Why aren't they more of a national party? Why are they restricted to certain areas? And I go back and forth with this. And on the one hand, I think, is it ever going to get as good as it was for Ed Davey? You know, have we reached the high watermark, as it were, in the sense of people's expectations now outrunning their realistic prospects? But I also think the question is for his critics is to say, well, what else would you do? What else could you do? And to be frank, in a fragmented environment where you are maybe the same level or 1 % up on your last polling, I mean, neither the Conservatives nor Labour can say the same because reform has changed the game.

11:07and so there's this weird thing where everyone's looking at each other but the Tories down on 2024 Labour are still down on 2024 reform have come in and still are on about 20 22 percent or so and the ideal scenario for the Libra Dems is that you know they're not complete masters of their fate in the sense that they need reform to do well not too well in some seats in the south take a lot of the votes there siphon them off and also pose as a kind of foil which enables Davy to kind of cut can we knock out the conversation now there's a lot of ifs and dependables there and of course Michael acknowledges the timing of the election will be key for this but right now I think Davey's doing a lot of the sensible things you know he's trying to keep his MPs on board he's giving them different positions and obviously what he tried to do is have retail friendly policies I do think there is a degree of incoherence in the sense that for instance they want to talk about the green vote and why we're getting more of that at the same time as maybe doing a 10p fuel cut and there's questions around, as I put the column yesterday, state capacity in the sense of do you want to be a bigger party or smaller party?

12:05I think there's questions around ideology. I'm very struck to see this think tank launching tonight, which I reported a few months ago. And I think that shows there is a hunger for a more ideological or sense of philosophical underpinning for the Liberal Democrats. But overall, I think most journalists will come away from right and thinking, yeah, it's not entirely a happy ship. But, you know, this isn't a mutinous party who's about to pose with their leader. That's the sentence I'm picking up right now. But, you know, after a few more wines in the Brighton ground tonight, we shall see. And Michael, and ordinarily, we would have you on to talk about foreign affairs.

12:36And we're speaking in a week when the Lib Dems have announced, you know, eye-catching policies around closer defence ties with Europe. There's a focus on Ukraine. There's a focus on the UN General Assembly in meeting Trump. James will be the first person to say that elections aren't won on foreign affairs. But is defence and security an area where the Lib Dems could sort of solidify their lead in seats like in the southeast? Well, if I can talk from an anecdotal perspective, when people ask me about my background, and I say it's in national security, people immediately start to take you seriously.

13:08You know, you have to get the local issues right as a parliamentary candidate. But at the same time, people want their candidates to speak authoritatively about the issues that are affecting Britain as well. And people are concerned. Now, mostly this is cost of living. but when you're able to tie that to events in the Middle East and what's happening with you know diesel prices and these sorts of things and you're talking on the doorstep to someone that's really struggling to pay the extra 60 quid a week or whatever it is they want to know that that person understands the problem in its entirety and I think you know we do have a very serious group of experienced policymakers Callum is one of them you know Mike Martin came from the defense world as well.

13:48Obviously, you know, people like me with national security backgrounds have been brought into the party. And, you know, 20 years ago, this was a party that, you know, didn't know if it supported nuclear weapons and the deterrent or not. Now that is cast iron part of our defence policy. We are, I think, a very, very serious party on defence and security issues. Yes, Ed Davey takes his sort of aim at Trump and has criticised Trump quite regularly, but that's no different from anyone I speak to in the cabinet office let's be honest they just aren't allowed to speak about it in public so I think we reflect the concern that we're hearing from some old colleagues we're trying to come up with realistic solutions as to how we do that within a European security framework and there needs to be a grown-up conversation about this ultimately our biggest security threat is in Europe so we need to deal with that Middle East and and you know our relationship with Trump come in a close second, I would say.

14:44And then China is there on the horizon and AI and all the other things that you know. So I am very infused by the level of conversations I have with MPs. They are extremely detailed. And, you know, I'm coming from a policy wonk background. I want to see deep critical thinking and plan A, B and C for dealing with certain, you know, defence and security issues. And those are there in the party. Now, There's a wider question about how we communicate those at the national level. And that's something I think we'll be working on. And just very finally, James, questions around Ed Davies' leadership aside, party conferences are often a time when the rising stars or future leaders of a party reveal themselves.

15:25Have you got any ideas of who could be tipped to be the next Liberal Democrat leader? Well, Josh Baberinde's linen suits could be the new wetsuit of the late 2020s. The man was out in the bars last night flashing the smiles. Obviously, Daisy Cooper is the longstanding deputy. Callum Miller is a more sober, conventional figure. I think those are three names right there. There's also Max Wilkinson as well, Cheltenham. The key thing for Davey in terms of his survival, no one's suggesting he's sort of on the brink, as it were. But I've mentioned a whole series of names there. In some respects, the fact that it's quite an open field, I think perhaps reflects that there is no obvious pretend to the crown.

16:04in the way that, for instance, Gordon Brown was under Tony Blair. There is a good crop of talent. They're all sort of similar background in terms of the 2024 intake. So, you know, about two years or so. I think they're now maturing, some of them, from just local champions to more of a national stage. But right now, I think the failure for the sort of clear frontrunner should probably help him out. I mean, it's interesting, Mamarindo got elected party president. But overall, I think that right now there is still a lack of consensus about who his successor would be. Well, Ed Davey tried out one of his new slogans on Saturday at conference.

16:38So as a treat for listeners, we thought we'd close the pod with it. Thank you, James. Thank you, Michael. And thank you for listening to Coffeehouse Shots. Will they hear? We care, we fight. We care, we fight. We care, we fight. That's right.

17:03Thank you.

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