What Keeps Sam Harris Up At Night

23 Mar 2026 · 1 h 10 min · 24 chapters

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In short

Podcast Notes: Conversations With Coleman - Episode: What Keeps Sam Harris Up At Night

Episode Overview

  • Host: Coleman Hughes
  • Guest: Sam Harris (neuroscientist, philosopher, public intellectual)
  • Main Topics:
  • Ethical and strategic dilemmas regarding a potential conflict with Iran
  • Jihadist ideologies and their implications for nuclear capabilities
  • Confusion surrounding anti-Zionism and antisemitism
  • Internet conspiracies and their cultural impact
  • Discussing the implications of declining birth rates
  • Political commentary on Gavin Newsom's presidential prospects

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Key Discussions

  1. War in Iran
  2. Ethical Considerations:
  3. Harris views regime change in Iran as a morally worthy project due to the regime's history of terror and oppression toward its citizens.
  4. He acknowledges the complexities and risks involved, particularly regarding the current leadership in the U.S.
  • Competence of Leadership:
  • Criticism of the current U.S. administration's handling of foreign policy, labeling them as "incompetent and corrupt."
  • Expresses hope for positive outcomes despite concerns about potential failures.
  • Different Perspectives on Timing:
  • Discussion on the timing and rationale behind potential military actions against Iran, questioning the need for immediate action without an evident trigger.
  1. Jihadism and Nuclear Threats
  2. General Stance:
  3. Harris emphasizes the threat posed by jihadist regimes acquiring nuclear weapons, advocating for preventive measures rather than waiting for crises to escalate.
  • Distinction in Threat Levels:
  • He discusses the difference in perceived existential threats between Israel and the U.S. regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions.
  1. Antisemitism and Anti-Zionism
  2. Defining the Terms:
  3. Harris argues that while anti-Zionism is conceptually distinct from antisemitism, in practice, they often overlap.
  4. The focus on Israel compared to other nations, despite their respective histories, raises questions about underlying antisemitic sentiments.
  • Cultural Impact:
  • Analyzes how misinformation and propaganda shape public perceptions of Israel and the Jewish community.
  1. Conspiracy Theories
  2. Cultural Phenomenon:
  3. Discusses the rise of conspiratorial thinking, particularly in the context of social media and independent media.
  • Psychological Insights:
  • Reflects on human psychology's inclination toward conspiracy theories, likening it to narrative structures preferred in storytelling.
  1. Social Media and Mental Health
  2. Negative Impacts:
  3. Harris aligns with Jonathan Haidt's views on the detrimental effects of social media on mental health, particularly for teenagers.
  • Personal Experience:
  • Shares his own positive experience after deleting his Twitter account, citing significant improvements in well-being.
  1. Declining Birth Rates
  2. Concerns:
  3. Discusses the implications of declining birth rates across the developed world, suggesting potential economic difficulties.
  • Technological Solutions:
  • Speculates on the role of technology in mitigating challenges posed by population declines.
  1. Gavin Newsom's Political Future
  2. Analysis of Newsom:
  3. Expresses skepticism about Newsom's viability as a presidential candidate due to California's contentious reputation.
  • Political Landscape:
  • Explores the challenges any candidate from California might face in appealing to voters in other states.

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Key Takeaways

  • War and Ethics: Harris advocates for moral considerations in foreign policy, particularly regarding oppressive regimes.
  • Nuclear Threats: The intersection of jihadist ideologies with nuclear capabilities presents a significant risk that warrants preemptive action.
  • Cultural Narratives: The current media landscape and public discourse are heavily influenced by misinformation and conspiracy theories, affecting societal perspectives on sensitive topics like antisemitism and political conflict.
  • Impact of Social Media: The negative influence of social media on mental health calls for a critical approach to its use, particularly among youth.
  • Demographic Shifts: The implications of declining birth rates extend beyond demographics into broader economic and cultural realms.

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Conclusion The episode presents a comprehensive discussion on pressing global issues, integrating ethical considerations with strategic foresight. Sam Harris's insights challenge listeners to think critically about international relations, societal trends, and the role of media in shaping public opinion.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Craftsmanship and Modern Society

1:02 to 2:12

Sam discusses the importance of craftsmanship in a fast-paced world.

“One thing I care about a lot is craftsmanship.”

The War in Iran: Perspectives

2:12 to 3:18

Sam shares his views on the ongoing conflict in Iran and its implications.

“I've been listening to your recent podcast, in particular your Ask Me Anything podcast that you've been doing with Jaren to get a sense of what you've been thinking about.”

Regime Change and Its Complexities

3:18 to 4:30

Sam elaborates on the complexities of advocating for regime change in Iran.

“I mean, when I say this is a worthy project, I'm saying this was worthy at any point in the last 47 years, right?”

The Role of Jihadism in Iran's Politics

4:30 to 5:54

Discussion on jihadism's influence on Iran's political landscape and its threats.

“Okay, so there's a million of those people who I'm not talking about in Iran, say.”

Consequences of Nuclear Weapons

5:54 to 6:49

Exploration of the dangers of nuclear weapons in the hands of jihadist regimes.

“So that's why it's a worthy project ethically and perhaps strategically, and especially when you add in the fact that Iran was on the cusp of producing nuclear weapons.”

The Nature of Deterrence

6:49 to 7:34

Examining the limits of deterrence when facing ideologically driven actors.

“So I think we're at war with jihadists at all times and everywhere, at least potentially.”

Comparing Threats to Israel and America

7:34 to 9:24

Sam contrasts the existential threats faced by Israel and the U.S. regarding Iran.

“So these are just cartoon characters and grifters and, you know, social media stars and moral lunatics in the second Trump administration.”

Implications of Nuclear Terrorism

9:24 to 14:00

Discussion on the potential risks of nuclear terrorism from Iran.

“we don't really understand the timing of this decision.”

Israel's Existential Threats and American Perspectives

14:00 to 17:04

Explore the differences in existential threats faced by Israel and America regarding Iran and jihadism.

“And again, this is not, I'll grant you and I'll grant, you know, critics of everything I've just said that are narrowly framed.”

Defending Israel: Ideological Justifications

17:04 to 21:33

Sam Harris discusses the ideological reasons for supporting Israel amidst global conflicts.

“And to minimize the influence of ideologies like communism and Islamism that have reliably produced pretty terrible societies to live in.”
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Double Standards and Perceptions of Israel

21:33 to 23:49

Delve into the double standards applied to Israel compared to other nations in similar situations.

“What is this double standard that's being applied to Israel?”

Anti-Zionism vs. Anti-Semitism: Understanding the Distinction

23:49 to 28:00

Investigate the relationship between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism and the societal implications of each.

“Okay, I want to talk about anti-Semitism in America.”

The Unique Situation of Israel

28:00 to 30:00

Explore the complexities surrounding Israel's legitimacy and its geopolitical challenges.

“There's something like 195 countries on Earth.”

Anti-Semitism and Its Political Ramifications

30:00 to 32:00

Discuss the rise of anti-Semitism on the far right and its implications.

“You can be fundamentally critical of this whole project.”

Conspiracy Theories and Human Psychology

32:00 to 36:20

Analyze the human tendency to gravitate toward conspiracy theories and their cultural impact.

“pretty immediately after that he was killed by someone who probably had left-wing views and hated him for what he perceived as like right-wing bigotry.”

The Role of Media in Shaping Beliefs

36:20 to 39:20

Examine how media formats influence public perception and understanding of events.

“Yeah, I think it's just a feature of human psychology that we prefer the structure of conspiracy theories to the way that problems actually play out.”

Transparency and Accountability in Government

39:20 to 42:01

Debate the need for transparency in government and the implications of revealing sensitive information.

“Well, I don't think I've looked into it as deeply as you have, certainly not as deeply as Tracy has.”

The Release of Controversial Files

42:01 to 47:12

Discussion on the implications of releasing sensitive files related to public figures and the cultural context surrounding it.

“But that's all, it's all to say that, yeah, let's see what's in the files.”

Social Media's Impact on Mental Health

47:29 to 54:19

Exploration of social media's effects on mental health, especially for teenagers.

“Well, I, at this point, see no reason to doubt that it's a problem, more or less of the shape and depth that Haidt claims.”

Democracy and Authoritarianism in Foreign Policy

54:19 to 56:00

Debate on the effectiveness of democracy compared to authoritarian regimes in various contexts.

“Are they going to want to hang people for blasphemy?”

Population Decline and Economic Implications

56:00 to 58:10

Discusses the impacts of shrinking populations and the potential need for technological solutions.

“Everywhere except Israel, basically, we're shrinking.”

The 100% Risk of Existential Threats

58:10 to 1:01:25

Explores the perception of risks from jihadism, pandemics, and their high likelihood of occurrence.

“So I just have to think that ultimately, technology is going to come to our rescue here.”

Pandemic Preparedness and AI Risks

1:01:25 to 1:04:50

Examines pandemic probabilities and the risks associated with AI, including the alignment problem.

“I instinctively didn't believe that because my then girlfriend, now fiance, had been working in a BSL-3 lab in Colombia, and she had just, she wanted to show it to me one time, like show me the research she was doing.”

Evaluating Gavin Newsom as a Candidate

1:04:50 to 1:06:30

Assesses Gavin Newsom's political viability and the challenges of being a Californian candidate.

“And yet that's where we seem to be with AI on the account of the people who are closest to this, to advancing the technology.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Coleman Hughes:Starting a business can seem like a daunting task, unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website, to marketing, to selling, and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz, and Allbirds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into... Sign up for your$1 per month trial at shopify.com slash special offer. Welcome to another episode of Conversations with Coleman. My guest today is Sam Harris. Sam is a neuroscientist, philosopher, public intellectual, and host of the Making Sense podcast.

0:40Coleman Hughes:In this episode, we talk about Sam's views on the war in Iran. We talk about antisemitism on the far left and the far right. We talk about the spread of conspiracy thinking on the right. We talk about the effects of social media on mental health. We talk about Sam's views on birth rate decline. We talk about the presidential prospects of Gavin Newsom, and much more. So without further ado, Sam Harris.

1:13Coleman Hughes:One thing I care about a lot is craftsmanship. What it means to actually care about how something is made and whether that ethic still has a place in a world that mostly optimizes for cheap and fast. Today's sponsor is a pretty compelling answer to that question. Vayer, that's V-A-E-R, was founded in Los Angeles with a mission to revive American watchmaking. And they've actually done it. They're now the largest independent watch assembler in the U.S., building watches across California, Arizona, Rhode Island, and Alabama. Even their leather straps are made domestically in Illinois and Florida.

1:46Coleman Hughes:These are serious, well-built watches, top-grade materials, over 10 ,000 five-star reviews. The weight, the feel on your wrist, the materials, it all signals that someone actually thought about this. And everyone comes with a waterproof warranty so you can swim or dive without thinking twice. If you're tired of disposable products and want something rugged, timeless, and thoughtfully made, go to vayrwatches.com. Okay, Sam Harris, thanks for coming back on my show.

2:13Sam Harris:Hey, good to see you, Coleman. Been a while.

2:16Coleman Hughes:Yeah, a lot to talk about. I've been listening to your recent podcast, in particular your Ask Me Anything podcast that you've been doing with Jaren to get a sense of what you've been thinking about. And first thing I want to talk with you about is the war in Iran. I've been doing a few podcasts about it. Here hosted a debate that turned into not really a debate between Neil Ferguson and Richard Haas. I'm curious I know you have mixed feelings about it because the project you feel is worthy but the people carrying it out you feel are incompetent so tell me how you're thinking about the war in Iran right now

2:59Sam Harris:Yeah well so I guess start with the first claim that the project is worthy that is not a claim that specifically checks all the boxes that I think many listeners would want checked in order to agree with the claim, right? So am I claiming that I know that Iran posed a so-called imminent threat to America? No, I'm not claiming that. I mean, when I say this is a worthy project, I'm saying this was worthy at any point in the last 47 years, right? We've been at odds with Iran, and Iran has been at odds with the human rights of its own people, and it has been a terror state, and it has exported terrorism to the world, and it has killed Americans in various contexts from our misguided, you might think, war in Iraq to the 1983 bombing in Beirut and other terrorist atrocities the world over.

4:01Sam Harris:It's funded Hezbollah. this has been a bad actor for nearly as long as I've been alive.

4:10Sam Harris:And importantly, it has been a source of utter misery for all the Iranians who don't want to live under theocracy, right? Which I am convinced is a majority. Certainly, if you talk to anyone in the diaspora, you will hear to a man and woman that it is a majority, and they will make that claim of the people who are still living in Iran. So whether it's, you know, whether it's 20 % of the Iranians who support the regime or 10%, or I was speaking to a Persian last night who thought that those figures were vastly inflated and he thought it was more like 1%, something like a million people of the 90 million Iranians that could be brought into the streets on any given day to claim that they would support the regime because they are in fact, you know, proper Shiite Religious fanatics who really do support the regime and are willing to die for it.

5:02Sam Harris:Okay, so there's a million of those people who I'm not talking about in Iran, say. But Iran, unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, where we perhaps learn the wrong lessons from our meddling in the Middle East, is a society that I think is—the majority of its inhabitants, I think, are truly sick of theocracy. they're far more sophisticated and educated and aspiring to live secular lives than the people of Afghanistan, certainly. And I would say even the people of Iraq. So I think it's, I don't think we can, we, at any point, we, I don't think we could have concluded from how awful our meddling in Afghanistan and Iraq turned out to be.

5:50Sam Harris:And again, even those two cases are different, that meddling in Iran was doomed to failure. So that's why it's a worthy project ethically and perhaps strategically, and especially when you add in the fact that Iran was on the cusp of producing nuclear weapons. And we've obviously been negotiating them back from the brink for many, many years. I never imagined those negotiations could have taken place in good faith on the Iranian side. I was never supportive of Obama's efforts or Biden's efforts to negotiate all that. I just think jihadism plus nuclear weapons is always a deal breaker. And this was and is a proper jihadist regime, which is to say that the people running Iran really are a death cult of the sort that we see in other groups like Hamas or Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State.

6:53Sam Harris:Right. Granted, there are differences among those groups, but they're united in their sincere belief in martyrdom and paradise and in this cosmic war they're fighting against infidels and apostates and Jews and blasphemers, etc. So I think we're at war with jihadists at all times and everywhere, at least potentially. And I think we should disrupt jihadist projects wherever we can. um so that's the reason why i would at least generically be in favor of regime change in iran again it didn't happen it didn't have to happen this month uh i'm not i don't know why it happened when it did uh uh but i also share the misgivings of many people uh the misgivings that many people have about this war um not because i think it's ethically or or politically or otherwise illegitimate to have intruded into this country, but because we are being led by some of the most incompetent and corrupt and amoral people who have ever been in public life in America now.

8:02Sam Harris:So these are just cartoon characters and grifters and, you know, social media stars and moral lunatics in the second Trump administration. They inspire no confidence whatsoever from Trump on down. And whenever they start talking about why we're in Iran and why we're doing what we're doing on, you know, on this front and more or less every other, they, what you get is just a tissue of self-contradiction and malapropism and confusion, right? And occasionally something that sounds rational and then you can seize on that and say, okay, that's the real reason we're doing what we're doing. And then that just gets obviated the next moment by the next dumb thing, Trump says.

8:43Sam Harris:So we're in bad hands. And that doesn't mean this project will fail. I mean, again, I will not, I certainly hope it succeeds. I hope there really is a regime change and the Iranian people get the society they deserve. And if that comes about, I'll certainly praise Trump for having accomplished that. But I think it's totally reasonably worried that we are going to turn this into some sort of ghastly failure and perhaps failed state. I mean, that's possible, and that's certainly worth worrying about.

9:18Coleman Hughes:I think a lot of people are focused on a point you mentioned in passing, which is that we don't really understand the timing of this decision. There's an intuition that wars should be triggered by something that could have rationally, that makes this moment especially rational. Like, say, you know, Iran, hypothetically, if they tried to attack the US mainland, that would make sense as a trigger to a war, or any number of other things, whereas this, the timing seems random. But I think, you know, if you zoom out, and, you know, I share your, broadly consequentialist philosophy. I'm a big fan of your book, The Moral Landscape.

10:06Coleman Hughes:And if you think from a consequentialist perspective about war in general, the fact that there's no... It might not make sense to wait for an event to trigger a war with Iran, especially when you think about the nuclear end of it. So I debated Dave Smith a few months ago, for instance, Dave Smith and a lot of people.

10:30Sam Harris:That's yeoman's work. I admire you for agreeing to do that under whatever conditions.

10:44Coleman Hughes:But a lot of people in his orbit, and I think a lot of well-intentioned people who follow him and others like Glenn Greenwald and stuff, they believe that it's not rational to go to war with Iran until Iran is sprinting towards the bomb. In other words, the IAEA, basically the entire responsible world agrees, which makes it unlike Iraq. Obviously, there were lots of suspicion and false confidence when it came to Saddam's nuclear program. There's actually earned confidence when it comes to Iran's nuclear program. They've admitted they've enriched uranium to 60%, and there's no other reason why you do that other than to create a bomb.

11:29Coleman Hughes:But there's still this sense that we've got to wait until they actually send the signal to make the final 10-yard. I don't know. This is a very powerful intuition for people. I don't share it. I think it would be ridiculous to wait until that point. Right.

11:45Sam Harris:I mean, we're under no obligation to give jihadists the benefit of the doubt, ever. Right? I mean, because there is no doubt as to their ultimate aims. I mean, Iran is ruled by, again, I'm not talking about the Iranian people. I'm talking about the Islamic Republic, the regime of jihadists ruling the country. They're ruled by a death cult that has the explicit project of genocide with respect to Israel, and if they could only accomplish it, genocide with respect to America. I mean, you know, death to Israel, death to America, what they've been chanting, these slogans they've been chanting for, again, nearly 50 years.

12:31Sam Harris:Let us take these people at their word, right? I mean, all you have to know is how they fought their war against Iraq to know how crazy this regime is. I mean, they sent children by the tens of thousands across minefields with keys around their necks that would grant them access to paradise to clear the mines and to get ground up under Iraqi tanks, right? I mean, this has nothing to do with Israel or Jews or anyone else in principle. This has to do with an utterly pernicious and yet heartfelt belief system about the moral structure of this universe. I'm talking about the true believers here. I'm not talking about people who would pay lip service to things they don't believe.

13:27Sam Harris:I'm talking about a quorum of people who are quite ready to die, right? And this makes a total mockery of any notion of deterrence, nuclear or otherwise. You can't deter suicide bombers. And suicide bombers with nuclear weapons are totally unacceptable. I mean, we can't get to a position where we're wondering whether or not jihadists are weeks away from acquiring bombs that then we can't locate, right? And again, this is not, I'll grant you and I'll grant, you know, critics of everything I've just said that are narrowly framed. Our interests are not identical to Israel's. Iran really is an existential threat for Israel.

14:15Sam Harris:When Iran says that they're going to annihilate the Jewish state and they're on the verge of getting a nuclear weapon to do that, you connect those dots. People in Tel Aviv are right to worry that they may all die in a sea of fire. That is just, in fact, the situation they're in. That's not the situation most Americans are in. It's true that Iran could perpetrate an act of nuclear terrorism against us. They could smuggle a Hiroshima-sized device at some point into the States and blow it up in a major city. I mean, that's totally conceivable, and that would be awful and be the worst thing we've ever experienced.

15:03Sam Harris:It would be much worse than 9-11 or anything else that has deranged us for decades at a stretch. So it's worth preventing at almost any cost, but it's not existential. So there is a difference between Israel and America here. But generally speaking, I think all open societies, not just Western societies, just all liberal open societies, have to be united against this possibility, which is in fact an inevitability if we don't do something about it, that a jihadist regime will acquire nuclear weapons. It's just we cannot let ourselves stumble into that situation. And above all, I think the Muslim world needs to understand that we can't let this come to pass.

15:52Sam Harris:And I think many Muslim countries probably do, whether they'll express it or not, they do agree with this point that Iran having the bomb is different from Israel or any other country having the bomb because of jihadism. Yeah.

16:11Coleman Hughes:I'm sometimes asked by people, including by Jews, why I have defended Israel. And, you know, the answer I give, and I really believe this, is that it's important to protect the good places in the world. Like we, if we go back, some of us don't have to go back very far in our family trees to find poor, struggling people leaving desperate places that are hopeless and coming basically to the West. Basically to America, Canada, Western Europe, Australia, a few other countries that have sort of figured out a formula for human well-being that is the best one we have thus far discovered. And I think we have an obligation to protect those places.

17:03Coleman Hughes:And I consider Israel such a place. And to minimize the influence of ideologies like communism and Islamism that have reliably produced pretty terrible societies to live in. to me it's that simple um although you know i i with so much propaganda going around it's actually hard to convince a skeptic that israel is one of those places that like the difference between israel and iran is akin to the difference between north korea and south korea or i should say south korea and north korea right um how do you convince a skeptic that israel is the kind of place that is worth defending relative to its enemies?

17:49Sam Harris:Well, in many cases, I don't know that you can. I mean, is there anything you can say to Dave Smith to get his head screwed on straight? I don't think so at this point. I mean, an unawareness of facts is unlikely to be his problem. There's something else going on there. I don't know what that is. So I think it's worth admitting that in many cases, it's a hopeless project. In other cases, the first thing to point out is that people have been the victim of really a kind of a psyop, right? I mean, there's just been a deluge of misinformation and disinformation and half-truths and lies and exaggerations.

18:33Sam Harris:And it's all aimed in one direction. And the asymmetry of it, I mean, just, you know, I guess it could be anticipated just by, you know, dint of numbers. I mean, there's only 15 million Jews on earth and there are 2 billion Muslims. So what do you expect TikTok to look like in the aftermath of October 7th? But I think it's more than that, right? There's also anti-Semitism that has been engineered and weaponized in ways that we could talk about. There's also whatever the algorithms have done or been led to do for whatever reason. But the bias is extraordinary and the level of deception is extraordinary, right?

19:18So, you know, we have people walking around with facts in their heads that are not facts, right?

19:24Sam Harris:There are people who think that Israel has perpetrated a genocide in Gaza, right? And they think they're using the word genocide correctly, right? So they think the Israelis are, in fact, the new Nazis, right? So that something in Gaza is akin to what happened in a death camp like Treblinka, right? I mean, that's what they think is real. They think there was a famine in Gaza, right? They think that the Israelis stopped food shipments to such a degree that, yeah, you got people dying of starvation in Gaza, right? They believe they've seen pictures of this, right? They've seen pictures from the Syrian civil war that they thought were, you know, depicted suffering and death in Gaza, right?

20:09Sam Harris:So I'm not saying there hasn't been tremendous suffering and death in Gaza, but if in fact it is true that the IDF faced a challenge, an urban warfare challenge of a sort that no society has ever faced, and they met that challenge at least as scrupulously, if not more scrupulously than we ever fought jihadists in anything like an analogous urban warfare setting in any of our wars, right?

20:46Sam Harris:If in fact they, I mean, of course collateral damage is going to happen and of course even some isolated war crimes will happen. And I would expect both of those things to happen in any war. But if it is in fact true that the IDF has been better behaved or at least as well behaved as Americans or Brits or any other Western power has been in anything like an analogous situation, admitting that there really has been no analogous situation. Again, we're talking about a society that used its own civilians as human shields and kept hundreds of hostages in tunnels.

21:29Sam Harris:If all that's true, then what are we talking about here? What is this double standard that's being applied to Israel? And to get out of the identity politics of it all and to dissect out the seemingly relevant variable of Judaism and the Jewish state, which is in fact not relevant at all from my point of view, I would just say that if an analogous thing had happened in Western Europe, if Denmark had a similar atrocity perpetrated against it, If some jihadist death cult had murdered 1 ,200 Danes and taken 250 hostage, everything I've said in the aftermath of October 7th, I would have said, you modulo the changes applying to Denmark.

22:21Sam Harris:Right. Just the Danes should the Danes should have done exactly what the IDF did. You know, or I mean, there's no that that's the standard I judge all of this by. Right. This is not there's no special concern about Israel because it's a Jewish state from my point of view. I'm talking about open societies and their enemies and the worst enemies of open societies in our lifetime are jihadists. They're not the only enemies, but I think they're the worst. And Israel really is, because of where it is, it is the tip of the spear for this conflict. And that's why we should be a loyal ally of this country.

23:06Sam Harris:How is it in the American interest to support Israel? It's in the interest of every open society to win a civilizational war against jihadism. Full stop. That explains everything from my point of view. It's not that there's not more we could talk about, but that's enough. And anyone who's fundamentally critical of everything that's happened here, who on October 8th was chanting in support of the Palestinian cause before Israel had done anything in response, all of those people are at best confused about this morally and politically. And at worst, many of them simply support jihadists.

23:49Coleman Hughes:Okay, I want to talk about anti-Semitism in America. This is a topic where I've had two directly contradictory impulses. One is the impulse to resist moral panics about bigotry in general. As you know, most of the writing and speaking I've done related to the moral panic about white supremacy and racism and the myth that the cops were, it was open season on unarmed Black people and all the bad policies, including terrible policies for Black people that people endorsed as a result of this very compelling myth, this very emotionally compelling myth. and so I think I've developed a very finely tuned sense that you know if someone's being accused of racism you should take a deep breath and actually see if that's what they're doing or if you know as you know you've been you've been accused of being a racist for saying some of the things that that I've said and some of the things that that actually a lot of black people would agree with and so I'm very sensitive to this happening with the charge of anti-semitism as well if someone is criticizing Israel saying oh I'm an anti-zionist Israel's an apartheid state I've been listening to Dave Smith and Glenn Greenwald and it seems like you know what's going on over there is really messed up and it sort of reminds me of South Africa and the Palestinians are being oppressed well I'm not going to jump to to call that person an anti-Semite necessarily, unless I hear them saying nasty things about Jews qua Jews.

25:38Coleman Hughes:And this is also influenced, I think, by that I was recently on one of the worst campuses in terms of deranged hatred of Israel, Columbia University. And this is obviously, I graduated in 2020, it's six years ago now. But it was equally bad then as it is now. It's just that there was no major war to bring it to the surface. But every year, there was an anti-Zionist protest that had like a hundred, over a hundred people. The anti-Zionists, they would knock on all of our dorm rooms and go door to door handing us misinformation about Israel. And then there was like 10 Jewish kids from the pro-Israel group, like sort of meekly, like trying to counter protest.

26:21Coleman Hughes:And they're outnumbered 10 to 1. And, you know, but in all the things I would hear people say casually about Israel, I would never hear those same kids say something nasty about Jews, you know? And so my sense was that they're, and I've heard you say this as well on one of your recent podcasts, is that for them, the way they arrive at their obsession with hating Israel is because they view Jews as a special case of white people. And they're really at root. What they hate is whiteness and Western values. And so that's not quite the same as an anti-black bigot who actually just has a disgust reaction when he or she thinks about or sees black people.

27:09Coleman Hughes:So all that is context for the question, how do you distinguish anti-Zionism from anti-Semitism and to what extent do you think there should be a big focus on fighting anti-Semitism given that it is a real thing?

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27:27Sam Harris:Well, I would admit that there you can logically differentiate anti-Semitism from anti-Zionism. I mean, I think that those are distinct, at least in principle, but in practice, I think most people who are anti-Zionist are in fact anti-Semitic. And I think that the unique focus, the special focus on Israel as a country that has a problem in justifying its right to exist. The only way I can explain that is, at some level, anti-Semitism, globally speaking. I don't know how else to explain the focus on Israel at this point. There's something like 195 countries on Earth. I think about two-thirds of them were formed, their boundaries were formed by map makers just drawing those boundaries on a map without much regard for the lives of the people living within those boundaries, which is to say that there's just, you know, something like two-thirds of existing countries have a similar origin story to Israel's, right?

28:28Sam Harris:It's just there's a mess on the ground, and, you know, in the aftermath of wars, people just divided up the map. only Israel is constantly put into question, right? And it has to justify its existence when its neighbors are actually trying to murder its inhabitants, right? It's not a normal situation. I mean, they're threatened. They continually are attacked and they win wars, And then the world demands that they give back the strategically valuable land they got after they won those wars, defensive wars, purely defensive wars. I don't know where else this has happened in human history. I mean, it should strike us as astonishing that the UN and the Human Rights Commission have passed more resolutions against Israel than against all other countries combined, right?

29:30Sam Harris:And those countries include countries that have perpetrated actual genocides. I mean, we're talking about countries like Sudan and Syria and Yemen and Iran and North Korea. I mean, just like the worst actors, you add them all together and they have not had enough opprobrium heaped on them to equal what Israel has attracted on the world stage, right? So how do you explain that? I don't have an explanation beyond some weird fixation on the country because of its character as the Jewish state, right? And yes, you can be an anti-Zionist. You can be fundamentally critical of this whole project. You could think, you know, the Jews don't need a state, don't deserve a state, don't require a state.

30:20Sam Harris:They can just live wherever they live, you know, like the Roma do. There would be some way to do a tightrope walk through all that and still come out not saying anything bad against the Jews as Jews. But practically speaking, most people who are really concerned about the existence of Israel, I think, are probably also anti-Semitic.

30:52Coleman Hughes:I've been genuinely surprised by the degree to which anti-Semitic obsession has flowered on the far right. I genuinely wouldn't have predicted it two or three years ago. um it's and you know maybe it's a failure of me updating my model of right-wing psychology but it's uh like i was genuinely surprised for instance that when charlie kirk was killed that very same day you see viral tweets instantly blaming israel that couldn't possibly have had evidence because it had just happened right from like total moron like just people on on the internet, right? And that... But then Candace Owens.

31:37Sam Harris:Yeah, but then that would filter

31:40Coleman Hughes:even to people who I had some degree of respect for, like Megyn Kelly would be just asking questions about the assassination of Charlie Kirk. And that almost uniquely Ben Shapiro would be like the last major conservative broadcaster to just not entertain any of this BS, especially when it seemed obvious pretty immediately after that he was killed by someone who probably had left-wing views and hated him for what he perceived as like right-wing bigotry. Seems like a lot of the right is just driving right past very simple explanations for phenomena and going straight to anti-Semitism. Again, the Iran war is another example.

32:25Coleman Hughes:President Trump has said he believes Iran tried to kill him. Now, put aside where the state of the evidence actually is on those claims right now, I think it's kind of murky. I wouldn't have trouble believing it, but I don't think it's like a rock-solid capital F fact yet. But Trump has said he believes that. We know how famously vindictive he is, right? That itself would be a parsimonious explanation for his aggressive posture towards Iran, but people drive right past that on the freeway. go right to the stop where Beebe's controlling him.

33:00Sam Harris:He's been saying that we should do something against Iran since, I think, 1980. Right. He's an old guy, and he remembers 1979, right? He remembers Jimmy Carter pathetically, you know, speaking from the Oval Office, you know, helplessly talking about our hostage crisis day after day after day. And, you know, just what a, on some level, what a national humiliation that was, right? So from his point of view, we should have kicked the shit out of Iran a long time ago. I mean, I can only imagine that's his default. I think he spoke out against Obama's nuclear deal from the very beginning.

33:49Sam Harris:I think it's a, I mean, the anti-Semitism problem on the right is not surprising. I mean, this is, you know, antisemitism has always been a problem right of center. And, you know, William F. Buckley and other gatekeepers on the right have kept it at bay for many decades. And now that we live in some sort of hunger games like dystopia online, all the guardrails are gone. And now we're just seeing what people think and believe and want to talk about. But in addition to that, we're seeing an appetite for conspiracism, conspiracy theories that seems unslakeable right of center. I mean, there's some conspiracy thinking left of center, too, but on the right, it's just, it is one of the most pervasive features of the culture.

34:49Sam Harris:And anti-Semitism is like the Ur conspiracy theory, right? It's just one of the most well-subscribed strands of virtually any conspiratorial style of accounting for world events. is just the most obvious attractor on that landscape. So almost everything winds up coming back to the Jews at some point if you're a conspiracist. Not always, but so often that it's just, again, this is unsurprising, but what is surprising is just how many seemingly normal people have so much time for conspiracy thinking. The independent media space has been an engine of conspiracism. Look at Joe Rogan's podcast, which alone has brought conspiracism back into the public conversation on almost every point in a way that it's almost impossible to exaggerate.

36:04Sam Harris:And that's just one podcast. But then you add to that the truly crazy permutations that come from people like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens. It's just what the right is doing now with its collective mind. And that doesn't go well for the Jews.

36:26Coleman Hughes:Yeah, I think it's just a feature of human psychology that we prefer the structure of conspiracy theories to the way that problems actually play out. So if you open up any Hollywood screenwriting book, it's basically going to tell you that you should write a conspiracy plot and then have a hero uncover it. And that's not something Hollywood invented. That's something Hollywood discovered. It discovered that stories which have that structure do better. And I think people look for stories of that structure in the news. And it's also possible that more and more we're, I think Tyler Cowen made this point somewhere that we are becoming less of a literate culture and more of a oral culture.

37:16Coleman Hughes:Not meaning that people can't read. Obviously, people can read, but most people are just not reading the news anymore. They're not reading the newspaper. And that actually changes how you interact with information. Yeah. It makes charisma more important and logic less important, I think. And I don't think anyone's immune from this.

37:39Sam Harris:The way you produce this content, I mean, think about how these documents get made. If someone is taking the time to write an article for The Atlantic that has been deeply researched, that's one sort of way to produce propositional claims of knowledge about the world. if somebody's just shooting the shit on a podcast, and even, you know, even, you know, the two of us talking now is, is looser than, than, than a written document. But, you know, Dave Smith over on Joe Rogan's podcast, I mean, that's just, it's, it's just tennis without the net. Right. And so someone who's just speculating, so just, just creating a vibe with words, just saying, maybe, maybe it's like this right in front of 20 million people um if that's your new if that's your news diet right you're going to be reliably misinformed yeah this is all of these concerns are why i had

38:44Coleman Hughes:michael tracy on my podcast recently to talk about epstein and related conspiracies because on his sub stack he's been doing the hard work of like writing down everything we know as a fact and distinguishing that from just conjecture and vibes. And when you pair out everything that isn't a confirmed fact and keep it to what we actually know and do the work and track down the footnotes of the footnotes of the footnotes, it becomes much more, in my view, a story of one man's depravity than a story that really should interest the public. At least how I feel about it. How do you feel about that story?

39:30Sam Harris:Well, I don't think I've looked into it as deeply as you have, certainly not as deeply as Tracy has. I've seen, I've read and seen some of what he's produced. I worry a little bit about him and his focus on this. I mean, again, I don't, this is slightly unfair to say and slightly ad hominem, But I feel like my spidey sense is going off a little bit around his deep dive down this particular rabbit hole. There's a reason why I haven't invited him on my podcast to have that conversation. But again, I could be wrong about all that. I just, I think, I do share his sense and I think your sense that there's a bit of a moral panic around this.

40:14Sam Harris:But I also, at this point, think we should just see all the evidence, right? I mean, normally I wouldn't be in favor of just airing, you know, unvetted emails and pictures and documents, you know, online to millions of people to just let the public make of it what it will. But given how we got here, given the level of betrayal by our institutions and the level of distrust in our institutions, now well-earned distrust, I think that the only remedy is sunlight. So I would be in favor of just revealing everything in as unredacted a way as possible. and I think the suspicion that the Trump administration has something to hide is probably warranted at this point because these guys are inveterate liars on every other point, right?

41:15Sam Harris:They're just, this is the, again, this is the most dishonest group of people we've ever assembled in a government. So there's no reason to trust anything that comes out of Trump's mouth or J.D. Vance's mouth or Pam Bondi's mouth or Cash, but I mean, these are, again, this is just, to call them liars doesn't even quite get at what it's like to hear them message on any topic. It's not that they sometimes lie or lie when they need to. They lie always and everywhere, and even when it doesn't serve their interest, right? I mean, it's just, it's like they're malfunctioning robots on some level. I mean, it's just like the mendacity knob got turned to 11 and it just got stuck there.

42:01Sam Harris:I have no idea what these people, why they even lie the way they lie. But that's all, it's all to say that, yeah, let's see what's in the files. And maybe -

42:12Coleman Hughes:I'm off two minds about that because, you know, when I saw someone like Larry Summers emails coming out with, where he's talking about... Actually, strangely, I had the woman he was talking about as a guest on my podcast a couple years ago, by coincidence. But he's basically just asking for advice about how to pursue this younger woman who is in her 20s. And do we need all... Should the government be releasing and embarrassing and at the height of basically a witch hunt of these people, people that are not even within miles of being accused of a crime. I mean, that seems like a big price to pay for releasing files that I doubt will actually ever satisfy the crazies.

43:06Sam Harris:Yeah, no, I totally agree that it's not fair and it's not good. I just think I'm just wondering what the path back to normalcy is. Right. And to release pages where every word has been blacked out and to and to expose everything about Bill Clinton and nothing about Donald Trump. I mean, clearly, that's that this is not how we can play the game at this moment. So I wouldn't know what to do. If I could walk back in time, I would say a more judicious process is the right one. But given that we're here, I mean, I showed up in those files, right? And some of that communication, I think, was misunderstood by some people.

43:58Sam Harris:I mean, I found it just, frankly, funny how I was in there. And then there's some other person named Sam Harris in there, too. There's a woman named Sam Harris in there who I think was buying Epstein shoes. And so people thought I was buying Epstein shoes, and that was funny. But so, in any case, it's just, it's not good that we're here. It's not good that we have a culture that is as defined as it is by conspiracy loons. I mean, this is like the pizzagatification of our entire society, right?

44:41Sam Harris:Most of the people who have contributed to this discourse are people we should never consult again on any topic. I mean, they're like, how is Kash Patel running the FBI, right? How is he even a person whose name I know? It's madness, right? Jack Posobiec, why is this a guy who's right of center of influence in any way, right? I mean, this guy gave us Pizzagate, right? This is just not, you know, and yet this is, I mean, this is Alex Jones's world and we're just living in it, right? And yet it's a, you have to figure out how to find a path back to the adults in the room You know, identifying them, promoting them, getting them, you know, to be in charge once again.

45:28Sam Harris:And I don't know how to do that on this particular case, given the level of mistrust, but apart from attempting to slake the thirst of all the crazies who think that this is the biggest story of the decade, right? So let's just open all the files and see what's there. I do worry that, you know, Pacey, Michael Tracy, that there might be more there that should be prosecuted and that is worth being shocked by, right? I mean, it could be that the word trafficking here means more than, you know, Epstein and Maxwell were just trafficking to Epstein. and maybe, you know, Prince Andrew and maybe one or two other people.

46:16Sam Harris:Maybe there was just, maybe there are a lot of people who should go to jail. I don't actually know. I mean, it's just, it remains to be seen. But it's possible that there are a lot of guys who had sex with girls they knew to be underage on Epstein's Island. Or it's possible that he was the only person who ever did anything like that. And even his crimes have been exaggerated. I just don't know what's true.

46:41Coleman Hughes:Some things are just better in person. High fives, hugging your dog, and shopping for Crocs. If you've never been to a Crocs store, you're missing out. Sure, you can find us online, but when you step inside our shop, you'll get it. And your feet will feel fantastic with a fresh pair of classic cloths, or cozy slippers, or beach-ready sandals, or even sneakers. Everything's ridiculously comfy, and you can even pick out Gibbets Charms to personalize your new pair. Go check out your nearest Crocs store. You deserve that in-person moment. Okay, let's shift topic a little bit. I'm curious what you think, and Jonathan Haidt, you know, does a lot of work on this, about age restricting social media, banning various parts of social media.

47:28Coleman Hughes:Do you have a strong position on that topic and on the wider question of what social media is doing to mental health and well-being? Well, I, at this point, see no reason to doubt that it's a problem, more or less of the shape and depth that Haidt

47:56Sam Harris:claims. I think social media has done something. It's done many things, but most of them were bad to our culture in the last 15 some odd years.

48:21Sam Harris:I mean, I can say, you know, I can speak personally about the effects of, of deleting my Twitter account. And that was, you know, I'm always embarrassed to say this, but it's the greatest life hack I've discovered in the last quarter century, right? I mean, it's just, just unbelievable improvement in my day-to-day wellbeing by deleting my Twitter account. Now that, now granted, I'm not a general case. I was a public-facing person who had a fairly large following on Twitter, and I'm a controversial public figure who is getting a lot of hate from both the left and the right. And so it's probably not a surprise that when I pull the plug on all that and then just live my life in the real world, there's a lot of relief to be found.

49:06Sam Harris:But it is more than that. It's just even when social media was a source of apparent pleasure and I was using it, you know, to my advantage, um, the, the fragmentation of my life, I mean, just the checking of it, you know, just, just the dopaminergic, you know, invitation hour by hour. Um, you know, if, whether I did, whether I checked it 10 times or 20 times or a hundred times, if things were really happening. In retrospect, I think virtually all of that time was misspent, right? And the effect on my other moments in life was on balance negative. So this is obviously my use case is completely different from a teenager's, you know, a teenage girl on Instagram has a different set of problems on social media than I ever had.

50:00Sam Harris:But I think on balance, a lot of that has to be bad. And so I do think that Haidt is probably right about this being a kind of emergency for teens. And, you know, Anik and I have kept our daughters off social media in any kind of public-facing way until the last minute. And, you know, I think our oldest daughter has accounts that are private with her friends. But still, I mean, our kind of rolling out the leash on all that has been careful because we are just sensitive to the prospects of this just being a really unhappy influence on a young mind, right? To feel that your personhood, in some important sense, exists online and has to be managed there.

51:04Sam Harris:I mean, it's inevitable to some degree, but we should allow our kids to migrate their lives onto that digital landscape.

51:23Sam Harris:very, I mean, it should be, this process should be very carefully thought out and circumspect because the way it can go wrong is just so obvious. Yeah.

51:37Coleman Hughes:I was listening to a podcast a couple months ago. It was Haviv Retigor's podcast where he was interviewing a former Al-Qaeda spy. This was, I don't know if you caught this, he was an Al-Qaeda member who flipped. It was a really good podcast. Haviv is great. I'm a huge Haviv fan. He's the man. But this guy was making the argument that we, I'm translating it into my own conceptual terms, that we kind of overly fetishize democracy in the West because it's worked very well for us. But if you look at the Middle East, all of the places, virtually all the places that are sort of stable and going in the direction broadly of our values are the monarchies, not the democracies.

52:28Coleman Hughes:The democracies generally turn out to be failed states or civil conflicts or Islamist states. And I thought that was a provocative, but I think very interesting argument. Where do you actually place democracy as a political system in your set of priorities for encouraging other countries in terms of our foreign policy?

52:53Sam Harris:Yeah, I don't think democracy itself is an intrinsic good. So yeah, I think I would take instruction from that former jihadist on this point. I mean, it's totally plausible to me that there are societies that are not ready for democracy and that some kind of benevolent dictatorship is, it might be the path to democracy for them. But what you need is that you need cultural change sufficient for most people to want to live in a way that makes democracy viable, right? And a path to human flourishing, right? So if you're just going to just give everyone the right to vote for, because voting is some kind of sacred right that supersedes all others, well, you might run that experiment once in a society that will vote in the theocrats, right?

53:47Sam Harris:And then it's over. So there's nothing to be recommended about that project. So I do think you want people who are ready for something like secularism and something like liberalism, right, before you can be confident that whether it's a democracy or anything else is going to matter. What's the majority going to want to do? Are they just going to want to stifle the free speech of everyone, including themselves? Are they going to want to hang people for blasphemy? I mean, it's just, if the majority is sufficiently crazy, well, then it almost doesn't matter, right? Then you want some authoritarian, you know, albeit a benevolent one to say, no, no, sorry, we're not going to hang people for blasphemy.

54:43Sam Harris:You don't get a vote on that. And so I would agree that, you know, just empirically, what we're seeing in the Middle East is that these closed societies, these authoritarian, really even despotic societies like Saudi and the UAE, are the ones that are both reigning in their religious fanatics to a degree at this moment and taking obvious steps toward some version of secularism and integration with modernity. And the so-called Arab street, when left to its own devices, seems to want to you know, kill people like Salman Rushdie, right? It's just, I mean, that's, if you can get the mob together and ask it what it wants, it's not going to sound like, you know, what they want in Marin County or any other place that many left of center secularists would find recognizable.

55:46Coleman Hughes:How worried are you about declining birth rates all around the world? Obviously, this is a much talked about phenomenon. We are below replacement level, meaning, you know, left to our own devices. our population is shrinking everywhere from America to basically every country in Europe, basically everywhere in the developed world outside of Israel, which has a real culture of having big families and feeling a sort of responsibility to bring about a new generation. Everywhere except Israel, basically, we're shrinking. And this creates economic problems, first of all, but do you think this is a problem?

56:30Coleman Hughes:If so, how big a problem is it, and how should we think about mitigating it?

56:37Sam Harris:Well, I can well imagine it's a problem. It's not a problem I've thought much about. I mean, this is certainly an argument for at least hoping for robots that we can rely on in our old age to care for us, right? I mean, this is, you know, if the human experiment is at bottom, a kind of Ponzi scheme that requires, you know, more and more people always at the bottom, you know, in the limit, it obviously doesn't, it can't work, right? I mean, we can't just, we can't get to, I mean, what's the, I think the carrying capacity of the earth, or at least the last time I heard anyone estimate what the carrying capacity of the earth was, was something like 40 billion people, Right.

57:20Sam Harris:So we're not we can't get to 60 billion people, presumably, just because, you know, everyone on Social Security needs 2.1 people beneath them to take care of them. Right. So technology is going to have to come to our rescue on some level or there there's going to have to be some path to. To population decline that is more benign than others. I mean, obviously, having it get cut in half in a generation has got to be dystopian. But I don't know what is to be hoped for here. I mean, in the limit, the arithmetic just doesn't work out, right? Or we have to fly away to other planets, right? So I just have to think that ultimately, technology is going to come to our rescue here.

58:19Coleman Hughes:I think I'm trying to, if I put together my model of Sam Harris based on having followed you for a long time on many different topics from Islam to AI to, you know, to any number of issues. It seems like you, more than other public intellectuals and authors I follow, focus on the 1 % chance that something will go very wrong. and that you allocate a much larger percentage of your intellectual energy towards preventing— oh, pandemics would be another example— to the worst-case scenario, to preparing for the worst-case scenario than most people who do this kind of work. Do you think that's accurate as a perception?

59:12Coleman Hughes:And does that come from a philosophical concern? or is it personality?

59:23Sam Harris:I guess I would dispute the allegation because just take jihadism, say. I don't think it's a 1 % chance that things are going to go very wrong there. I think it's 100 % chance that things have already gone wrong and they will keep going wrong until we get a handle on it. I mean, it's just a guarantee. It's guaranteed to be a problem. And it's an asymmetric problem, right? So it's just so easy to do something sufficiently terrible that it deranges a society for a year, five, ten, right? A bunch of guys with box cutters got us to spend trillions of dollars fighting wars. you know a you might think those wars were misbegotten and at least one of them probably was but still right it's like the asymmetry the amount of leverage you get for being a suicidal maniac supported by lots of people who are just fans of suicidal maniacs it's just so extraordinary that it's just it's not a one percent problem this is a this is a hundred percent problem um so just with pandemics just if we wait around long enough we're going to have another pandemic that's worse than COVID, I would put the chances of that at 100%.

1:00:40Right?

1:00:41Sam Harris:So, and much worse than COVID. So, and to say nothing of engineered pandemics, if we just democratize the ability to engineer, you know, pandemic, you know, pandemically plausible viruses, I think the chance that some death cult is going to do that, whether it's a jihadist one or it's one like Aum Shinrikyo or some other group of crazies, I think the chances of that happening are close to 100%. So these are not tail risks. These are just, you take any, on a generational timeline, just give me 30 years, both of these things are going to happen. Let me just underscore that.

1:01:28Coleman Hughes:I remember I told this story on Joe Rogan years ago, but I haven't told it in a while, that when COVID first started and people were debating about whether it was lab leak or not, many people emphasized, well, they did this research in Wuhan in a BSL-3 lab, and that's like a really, the security of that lab is super tight. I instinctively didn't believe that because my then girlfriend, now fiance, had been working in a BSL-3 lab in Colombia, and she had just, she wanted to show it to me one time, like show me the research she was doing. So I just walked in. Like I just walked in. I don't think I washed my hands.

1:02:09Coleman Hughes:I don't think I had a mask on. So, which is just like, you know, on paper, something is what it is, but it's only ever as secure as the people working in it, in which case was me.

1:02:22Sam Harris:And I was talking about intentional, you know, weaponizing of lethal agents. But yeah, the inadvertent spread is also, So again, given enough time, I think on the order of 100 % likely to occur. So, I mean, the BSL-4 labs leak, right? So this is just an enduring problem worth worrying about. and when you look at what we spend our time and attention and resources on, I mean, they're not apportioned in any rational way commensurate with these risks, right? I just think we should be much more focused on, I mean, there are even tail risks that I think we should be more focused on. And I think with AI too, it's just, is the alignment problem a 1 % risk?

1:03:16Sam Harris:I don't know, but the people who are doing the work are rarely estimating it to be that low, right? It's like when you ask Sam Altman, what are the chances that AI ruins everything? I think he once gave an answer of like 20%, right? So it's not, maybe he's down to 1 % now, but no one's lower than 1%, right? And if during the Manhattan Project, if you had asked the assembled scientists, you know, what's the chance that you, you know, your Trinity test is going to ruin everything? I mean, just ignite the atmosphere and all the nitrogen in the atmosphere and cancel life on Earth. I mean, they were debating the possibility of that.

1:04:00Sam Harris:They put it in, I think, at the end, one in some millions, but they did several rounds of calculation to ensure themselves that there's no significant risk there. But what if at the end of all that calculation, they had said, yeah, we think it's probably a 1 % risk or a 10 % risk? What if you had Edward Teller saying it was a 20 % risk and you had one outlier, like the analogous person to Jan LeCun, saying that there's no risk, but everyone else couldn't drive it even into single digits for the most part. And they still detonated the bomb at Alamogordo, just rolling the dice with the future. That would have been astonishing and astonishingly irresponsible.

1:04:50Sam Harris:And yet that's where we seem to be with AI on the account of the people who are closest to this, to advancing the technology. So it's, again, I don't know what the real, I don't know what it is rational to believe about the alignment problem. I don't know if it is a 1 % risk or a 90 % risk, really. But I guess I'm disputing that the things that have captured my attention here are really the kind of tiny tail risks.

1:05:23Sam Harris:I spent a lot of time whinging about Trump and the prospects of having him for a second term. And now we're, whatever, 14 months into a second term. what was the risk that he was going to do massive harm to the integrity of our society and its standing on the world stage? You know, if I had estimated 100%, I don't think I would have been wrong, right? So it wasn't a 1 % risk. All those hours spent worrying about Trump and his incompetence and his corruption and his aptitude for alienating our allies and giving comfort to our enemies, that seems to be how it's been playing out. And so it's, I mean, I don't know what probability I would have put it at, but it would have been very high.

1:06:09Coleman Hughes:Okay, final question. You're a longtime resident of California and Gavin Newsom seems, based on prediction markets, to be the best hope for the Democrats in 2028. What do you make of him as a politician and a candidate and his record in California?

1:06:30Sam Harris:Well, I certainly hope it doesn't come to pass that we're running Newsom in 2028. I mean, leaving aside his qualities as a person or a politician, I mean, just take any liberal coming out of California or anyone who's had to have a political life in California and had to pander to the leftist interests that you had to pander to in order to succeed as a politician in California. So whatever leftist pieties you're trailing in your wake to accomplish that, that candidate is going to have a hard time selling him or herself to the other 49 states, I think, in 2028. I just think the albatross of California hung around his neck, and its reputation, real and imagined, in the other 49 states is not good, right?

1:07:27Sam Harris:So I just think it's the oppo research and the negative ads sort of cut themselves, right? You just show a lot of footage of homeless encampments and fentanyl addled addicts on the sidewalk in San Francisco and elsewhere. And fires burning down half of Los Angeles. And California is a much better place to live than its critics imagined, but it's so easy to straw man the state. And there are so many real problems that politically speaking, it just doesn't seem pragmatic to put forward a Californian. And in addition to that, I think Newsom has some other strikes against him. And he's also very talented in other ways and very telegenic.

1:08:22Sam Harris:And, you know, he looks the part. And I think he, you know, I would imagine, you know, in a debate against J.D. Vance, I think he probably would do well, right? But, again, I do think the reputation of California for the rest of the country is an albatross that we just shouldn't, you know, voluntarily put around our necks as Democrats. it.

1:08:45Coleman Hughes:Okay, Sam Harris, until next time, thanks for coming on.

1:08:49Sam Harris:Yeah, good to see you, Coleman.

From the publisher

In this episode, Sam Harris joins Coleman Hughes for a sweeping conversation about the biggest risks facing humanity. They unpack the ethical and strategic dilemmas of a potential Iran conflict, the dangers of jihadist ideology paired with nuclear capability, and the persistent confusion around anti-Zionism and antisemitism. We also talk about the Epstein files, the conspiracies ruling the internet, Gavin Newsom, and the declining birth rate.
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