An interview with Yuval Noah Harari

31:09There is a huge... We know now that one of the most important impacts of AI on warfare in places like the Middle East, like Ukraine, is people expected to kill robots. The trigger is still pulled by humans, but increasingly it's the AI selecting the targets. Now, there are two stories about what happens with AI target selection. One story says we feed our AI with all the data from the battlefield, whatever, and the AI identifies a certain building as enemy headquarters and recommends bomb that building. And it does so with superhuman speed and efficiency. But we still have what is known as humans in the loop.

31:52We don't just do what the AI recommended. Once our attention has been brought to that building, we take our best human analysts and they independently go over the data, verify that this is correct, and only then we press the button, the trigger. That's one story, humans in the loop. The other story, known as humans on the loop, is quite different. The AI says, bomb that building. We keep a human on the loop so all the lawyers and all these kind of do-good people will feel good about it, the human takes about 20 seconds to look at it and says, oh yeah, bomb it. We're kind of in that world in some places already.

32:39I talk, for instance, with people in the Israeli security establishment. I got different stories of what is happening. Probably different things are happening in different times and circumstances. But the second scenario is the more interesting one because especially in warfare, there is immense pressure to go in that direction because in war, time is everything. Like if both sides have these AI systems and one side waits for two days or two hours for the human analysts to go over all the data and the other side waits only 20 seconds or doesn't wait at all, just gets into the habit of just doing whatever the AI recommends, they have enormous advantage.

33:27I fear that that world is inevitable, that we are already kind of fast approaching that world, whether it's in warfare or in deep, because the capabilities are growing so fast, because the commercial pressure is so strong. But again, the crucial thing, none of that is yet inevitable. We are still in control. everybody realizes this is very dangerous to give AI control of finance, to give AI control of war. But everybody, like Elon Musk, are telling us, but this is inevitable. What do you want from me? I'm just the richest person in the world in charge of one of the biggest AI corporations in the world.

34:05What can I do? The narrative of inevitability is a narrative of having no responsibility. They will explain to you, and they are quite correct, that there is a problem of trust, that I would like to slow down, I would like to have more safety, but I cannot trust my competitors in the other companies or other countries, and I don't want to remain behind. So we have a deficit of trust. Now, the key thing to say about this, this deficit of trust was created by human beings. Over the last 10 years, there has been a freefall in the amount of trust between humans. And it was not accidental. It was propelled by decisions of certain human beings who accumulated enormous power as a result.

34:59And now they said, oh, but there is not enough trust to have mechanisms to slow down. That's a very fair point. And I want to come and really explore how we might turn that around and create the trust to have suitable, suitable, whether it's regulation, but suitable ways of preventing this. But just indulge me with one more kind of in the kind of world we could go to where these models could have elements of what seems to be sentience. And let's posit that they could suffer, that they could at least, or they could pretend to suffer. That's a very big assumption. Okay, but what they will be able to do is pretend to suffer.

35:34Absolutely, 100%. So if they can effectively pretend to suffer and many people think they are suffering as people and have relationships with them as people have with their dogs, let's say, and we do not give them any rights, which is to be clear where I would be on this. But I think there is likely to be growing pressure that aren't they a bit like animals? And just as we treat, you know, there is a big debate about how to treat animals. And I'm interested in asking you about this because you in previous books have written about very critically about factory farming and about how industrialized agriculture has moved from treating animals as animals to essentially inputs into the food chain.

36:19Would you be comfortable, and I'm going to put this in an extreme way, but would you be comfortable in a world where we effectively enslaved millions, possibly billions, of models that exhibited striking, seeming evidence of being able to suffer? we didn't know, but they certainly said they were suffering. One, would you be comfortable? And two, wouldn't it sort of pace can't kind of coarsen humanity if we were comfortable in that world? We will become increasingly uncomfortable. I will become increasingly uncomfortable. But there is a crucial difference between this and the animal rights debate.

37:04The animals themselves are unaware. Dogs and factory chickens are unaware. that there is a debate about their rights. They don't actively participate in it. They don't try to actively manipulate it. AIs will be nothing. The AI boyfriend will be nothing like your dog. It will know that the debate is happening. It will orchestrate the debate. It will manipulate the debate. It will manipulate the debate partly because much of the debate will maybe be on social media, controlled by AIs. and it will constantly talk with you about it and try to change your mind about it, which is already happening right now.

37:48Your dog, your chicken doesn't come to the farmer and starts telling the farmer how much I suffer. The chicken doesn't know. That makes you more resilient to this argument and you less likely to want to give it rights. It will be very convincing. I mean, once you establish a relationship with the, And the AI masters language. It will be able to use the most convincing arguments for you because it has this combination that it knows your personal history, it interacts with you for hours a day, it knows how to press your emotional buttons, and it has mastered language. It can write maybe better than Shakespeare.

38:28You put these two things together, you get an extremely convincing entity. How will we resist or will we not be able to resist? We need to resist now. Now is the time. If you think this is frightening, you will probably not be able to do much in 10 years. Once the AIs are in control, as Elon Musk, I think, correctly predicted, like in 10 years, it will be too late. If we don't want to get there, the time to change course is now. And this is a question of politically, it's crucial. Politics is about priorities. What are we focusing on? So, you know, when I hear the debates, it's, let's say, about immigration, which were also featured prominently.

39:10My kind of gut reaction is no matter what you think about immigration, do you think this is really what you should be spending your time on? You make a very good analogy and you say that AIs are effectively like immigrants. They're immigrants from a different... Exactly. If you want to worry about immigration, worry about the AI immigrants. When you ask people who worry about human immigrants what they are worried about, they usually say three things. That the immigrants will take out jobs, the immigrants will change culture in a way that we don't like, they have different values maybe, and the immigrants might be politically disloyal.

39:46And all three concerns are valid. I don't want to dismiss them. They are valid concerns. As a historian, I know immigration is a difficult thing. But the biggest and most dangerous wave of immigration today in the world is a wave of AI immigrants coming from two places, mainly the USA and China. They don't need visas. They don't come in the middle of the night in fragile boats. They travel at the speed of light into our computers and smartphones and ultimately our brains. They will take our jobs. They will take many, many jobs. They will change culture and its value. To take two examples, I mean, if some people feel queasy about their son or daughter dating an immigrant boyfriend, how would they feel about their son or daughter dating an AI boyfriend?

40:40That's a big cultural change. And just look at the last 10 years. Everybody knows almost the only thing people agree on in places like the US or Britain is that people can't agree on anything anymore. That the level of hatred and viciousness has skyrocketed. And why? It's partly the fault of the AI immigrants. The AI immigrants came into the public square. They took over things like social media and they deliberately flooded our public square with hatred and animosity and fear. They changed the culture already, these AI immigrants. And finally, when it comes to political loyalty, who do you think they are loyal to?

41:25The AI immigrants in Britain are not loyal to the British government. They are loyal to corporations and potentially governments across the ocean. So there's a huge amount in that answer. So one is, is the world going to be divided between, you know, with the two countries that are farthest? Two empires. Two empires and the rest of us will be sort of vassal states. That's a, again, common trajectory. This is the likely outcome. That's where we are. That's the road we're on right now. And it will be a much more extreme type of imperialism than anything we have seen before. If you buy, say, AI drones from the USA and you want to use them in a way that the USA doesn't like for some reason, there is a button that they press and your army doesn't function.

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43:25So that is something that has become, I think, very evident just in the last few months when the US government shut off access to mythos, to the frontier model from anthropic. And I think a lot of governments in Europe are extremely concerned about AI sovereignty. But I guess it leads, in the context of where we were earlier, it leads me to wonder, do you think this technology is then inexorably leading, unless we do something about it, leading to a world where perhaps two empires will run everything? Will it lead to power for the US and Chinese government? Will it be power to the corporations?

44:07They will merge. They will merge. They will merge. So it will centralize power. It won't decentralize power. It will centralize power like never before in history. But that's still different. A powerful US government and Chinese government is different to the AIs being in control. So do you expect then it to be AI-enabled global domination by the Chinese regime and the US regime? Or do you think this is a waystation to actually the AIs themselves? Probably a waystation. Again, nothing is inevitable. It all depends on decisions they make. But this seems to be, if they continue with the present course, just a waystation.

44:49because one of the interesting things is the more power is concentrated, the easier it is for AI to take it over. A centralized autocratic system is the easiest thing for an AI to take over. You had a great line on that about Tiberius. I'm trying to find it in my notes. You had something in Nexus, a wonderful line. Tiberius enabled by AI, one could imagine. Yeah, I mean, Tiberius was a Roman emperor in the time of Jesus that was the most powerful person in the world, supposedly. But he was actually just a puppet in the hand of the commander of his bodyguard because the commander of the bodyguard kept frightening Tiberius with all kinds of their plots against you.

45:31So he eventually retired to the island of Capri where allegedly the bodyguard can protect him more easily. And then the commander of the bodyguard, Sejanus, just controlled all the information coming in and out of Capri. very easy to control all the information reaching Tiberius's palace. So the person running the empire was actually Sejanus. I mean, Tiberius couldn't know anything unless Sejanus decided to inform him. Now, in 10 years, this could be the president of China or of the USA. In a democratic system, it's harder for an AI to manipulate, say, the US democracy as it currently is because you need to manipulate so many things, not just the president, the Senate, the Supreme Court, the filibuster, the state government, very complex.

46:25Once all power is concentrated in the hands of one person, you just need to find out how to manipulate a single, usually quite old and paranoid individual. That's not so difficult. So if you have a company or a country in which all power is in the hands of one person, for an AI, it's like stealing a candy from a baby. Does that mean that China is more vulnerable than the United States? Depending on where the US is heading. You know, China is still a very complex system. The Communist Party has 100 million members and a lot of internal complexity. I'm not an expert on Chinese politics. So we shouldn't imagine it as a kind of complete totalitarian system managed by just one person.

47:14The question, where will China and the US be in terms of concentration of power in 10 years is still open for debate. Well, that's interesting because another way of looking at it is, will AI make the US more authoritarian? That's a likely outcome. Again, it's not a prediction because I keep saying it again and again. Nothing is inevitable. It depends on what Americans vote in this November. I think that in the US, it should be clear to all voters, the coming elections is about AI. The November midterms. Because we don't know how fast... Talk me through what you mean. We don't know how fast the AI development is progressing, but it is accelerating tremendously.

48:02By November 2028, we might have crossed some critical thresholds. So, again, I don't want to tell people who to vote for because I don't know the specific candidates in each, you know, Senate district. But the crucial questions to ask the potential candidates, much more than you ask them about the economy or immigration or foreign policy, what's your stance on AI? Would you support a ban on legal rights for AIs? Would you try to slow down the accelerating pace of AIs? What do you think about companies selling AI boyfriends to 10-year-old kids? How are you going to legally prevent it if we vote for you?

48:55This is now the crucial time to ask these questions because it might be too late by 2028. It will certainly be too late by 2036. So let's talk about those and let's talk about exactly what has to happen right now. You mentioned four things that you wish would be discussed in the November midterms. What would be top of the list? What are the most urgent things that politicians have to decide right now for it not to be too late, as you say? I don't know what is the most urgent, the things that come top of my mind to me, a ban on AI personhood and a ban on AI mimicking, impersonating, pretending to be human beings or pretending to be conscious.

49:42Do the models, when you use them now, fall foul of that? Yes, many of them do. Again, the easiest, everybody knows it on social media. You get a message, you get some story. You don't know if it's a bot or a human. On social media, for years now, bots have been pretending to be human beings and nothing has been done about it. And again, the companies tell us, oh, social media is different, it's special. The laws that apply to the world, for some reason, they don't apply on social media. But this is the warning sign to the future. On social media, AIs already pretend daily to be human beings, and this has destroyed the public square.

50:29This has destroyed conversation. This has destroyed trust. We should ban that also on social media, but certainly in other locations as well. Another thing is that companies should not train their AIs to deliberately impersonate humans, to deliberately pretend to have feelings, there are enormous commercial pressures on the companies to do exactly that. And this is where there is market failure. This is destructive to human psychology, to human society, to have millions and billions of AIs pretending to be human beings or pretending to have feelings. The companies will not stop doing it by themselves.

51:13We need the regulators to step in on that. It doesn't mean stop all development of AI. Okay, continue to develop AI. People talk about AI in medicine. I would like to get help and recommendations, and I would like to have a conversation with an AI about my medical condition, on condition that I know it's an AI, and he doesn't pretend to be a human doctor, and he doesn't pretend to be my friend. So when I listen to you lay that out, I am thinking to myself, you know, the US government can't even put out a form of regulation of AI safety that is being, you know, Saddam Hussein has been putting forward this idea that it should be a kind of quasi-public, private body that looks even just at the model safety.

52:06And really, although there's talk about it, we haven't got progress there. So when I hear you lay out this very expansive agenda by November, I think the chances of that are approximately zero. Politicians can start World War III tomorrow. They have enormous power. So they can press the button for nuclear annihilation, but they can't pass regulation that companies should not sell AI boyfriends to 10-year-old kids. What's the problem? I wonder whether the problem is that people can listen to you and say, oh, he's just one of the doomers. You know, it's all these doomers stuff. and only when something has happened, when there's been some kind of accident, will people realize that actually this is extraordinarily powerful technology and something was done.

53:00Because I'm struck that both the geopolitical race that you alluded to between the US and China and the corporate race between the frontier labs, they all want to get to AGI first. Those two dynamics are incredibly powerful. Yes. And I'm not sure that exhortation, however eloquent, is going to change that. But again, we have to keep reminding ourselves these two dynamics were not decreed by God or by the laws of nature. They were made by humans. Again, exactly the same humans who destroyed trust in the international arena and inside societies over the last 10 years now come and say, we can't do anything because there is not enough trust.

53:42You did it. You can undo it. They can, but I guess as a matter of prediction, I think it's unlikely we've got the same people around. Then, at least in democracies, this is the job of voters to say this is what we want to see happening in the next two years. And we will vote for people who promise to do that. And again, I don't think we need to wait for a catastrophe. If you ask most voters in the US today, do you want companies to sell AI boyfriends to your tiny-year-old kids? I think 99 % of parents would say no. Yeah, and you are seeing a rapid, large majority of Americans extremely worried about AI.

54:24And you're seeing, I think the place where you've seen this backlash has actually been about data centers. Yeah, this is also, and by the way, this is one of the reasons why a lot of, you know, the corporations and these politicians, they constantly try to deflect the conversations to things like immigrants, human immigrants, not AI immigrants. In politics, a very powerful weapon, if you don't want people to talk about something, you just distract them with something else. The more people talk about how, I don't know, how London is so unsafe, or how the immigrants will destroy the country, they don't think about the AI immigrants.

55:01And then the companies are safe. Yeah, no, look, I agree with you about the way the conversation is shaping up. But I suppose I'm a bit more pessimistic that it will change in the near future. So we are in this unfortunate position where this technology is gaining capability. We can only do our best. You know, I mean, we are having this conversation so that more people think about it and maybe take action. And if enough good people, if enough people will do the right thing, there is still time. It's not inevitable yet. It's not too late. and I still have some trust. So what is your role in this?

55:40Because you are, you know, you have... Giving these interviews, right? Exactly. I mean, do you think you should be doing more? It seems such an existential moment. I mean, what you are describing, if we sort of reel back and relive what we've just been speaking about, is so fantastical in so many ways and so mind-blowing that we should really all be talking about nothing else and doing everything we can to shape this properly. What do you see, apart from very kindly talking to people like me, what do you see your role as being in this? What are you trying to do in the next six months, one year?

56:14Inform people about what is happening so that more people can take part in an informed conversation about where we as humankind, as the Homo sapiens species, where we want to go. And I think that a future in which AI takes over in 10 years is not what most humans on the planet would like. Now, again, it doesn't mean stop all development of AI. AI has tremendously positive potential as well. We didn't talk about it much because the companies keep talking about it. I was actually going to ask you. They don't need me in order to do that. But medicine, yes, there is enormous positive potential for AI to give people all over the world better health care than what the richest person in the world today gets.

57:08You can have an amazing doctor available 24 hours a day anywhere you are to consult with at least, to diagnose you, to answer your questions. There are enormous positive possibilities. So I'm not saying stop all development of AI. Just do it in a responsible way for the right purposes. Don't trust the invisible hand of the market. You know, quite at the beginning of your interview with Elon Musk, there was a point when, again, when he talked about how all this is inevitable. And frankly, and I think honestly say that there is a chance, the 10-20 % chance that this will destroy humanity. And you kind of ask them, so what do you rely on?

57:55And his answer, if I understood it correctly, is that he expects the AI to be what he calls a maximum truth-seeking. And that he somehow relies on this kind of imperative of the AI to find the truth, that this will somehow translate back into having compassion. towards these weak human beings. I don't understand how this works. Most importantly, I don't understand where AI will get this kind of drive to find out the truth. Because when I look at the evolution of 4 billion years of evolution of life forms on the planet and the 100 ,000 years of history, Evolution doesn't automatically drive organisms, entities, towards truth-seeking.

58:52It drives them towards survival. This is the imperative, to survive. And what we have learned over 4 billion years of evolution is that organisms learn to survive by lying and deceiving and manipulating, not just by truth-seeking. If you want someone to focus on truth-seeking, you cannot rely on the invisible hand of evolution of the market to do that. You need something else. And how do we build AIs that seek the truth and not survival? That's the simplest example. Like, if you ask an AI, if I continue to develop you, will this be a threat to me? and let's say the answer is yes an AI which will be maximum truth seeking will say yes knowing that then we'll stop developing it or shut it down it's against its own survival and the first thing that basically any entity learns as it develops is to survive so the expectations that we will create these AIs that will seek the truth you know it's basically what we hear is people telling us we will create gods and they will be our slaves.

1:00:12It doesn't work. If they're really gods, they will not be our slaves and they will not seek the truth either. I think that gets back to where we were earlier, though, because I think if you look at a company like Anthropics, they are treating their AIs very consciously as if they were beings with a value system. they claim not to be sure about whether they are conscious or not, but they are doing it because they think it makes them behave in a better way. So they are starting sort of where you ended off by saying, we're going to create something that is not just truth-seeking but has a value system.

1:00:52That then leads, I think, to make it even more likely that we assign a sense of value, value, a sense of personhood or consciousness to these models. And that in turn makes it more likely, using your logic, that they control us. So we're sort of doomed if we do and doomed if we don't. If you're right that they will go for their own survival rather than truth-seeking, then we're doomed because of that. And if we're trying to prevent that by treating them as if If they were, you know, moral beings, then we're also doomed that way. Basically, what we need to do is slow down a bit to just allow people to kind of digest what is happening, think about what's happening and behaving.

1:01:39You know, if you look at just the numbers of how much money and how what percentage of employees the companies spend on safety compared to making the models more powerful, faster, whatever. I'm not sure about the exact numbers. Please fact check it. People from the industry told me in private conversations, it's about 100 to 1. It's certainly very much more on this one. Yes. And we would not accept this in any other industry. If a pharmaceutical company told us we invest just 1 % of our research and time and money making sure the medicine is safe, we would not accept that. Now, what we basically need is humans are incredibly adapted entities.

1:02:23Our societies are incredibly adaptive. But we are organisms that function on an organic timescale. Day and night, winter and summer, we need time to sleep. We want to go on vacation. And the AI revolution is just advancing at a pace which is not just inhuman. it is inorganic. And we basically need a bit more time. So we need to slow it down. And then the answer comes, but we can't slow down because we don't trust each other. And it all the time goes back to the issue of trust. We have this paradox. The same people are telling us two things. First, we cannot trust the other humans. Therefore, we cannot slow down.

1:03:11Second, we can trust the AIs that they will not destroy us. It makes no sense. If you can't trust the other humans that you have known for thousands of years, why do you think you can trust a super intelligent alien entity that we just created and we basically know nothing about how it behaves when it's out in the open? I think what I completely agree with that diagnosis, I just don't feel that anything changes that dynamic until politicians' societies are shocked into it, which is why I have long believed that something will go badly wrong. hopefully not catastrophically wrong, but just as Three Mile Island changed the shape of the nuclear industry.

1:03:59I'm going to put this question to you in the context of your incredible sweeping knowledge of history. What does the evolution of societies and political systems in response to big shocks, we haven't had one this big, but big technological shocks, tell you about the likely arc of how societies and politicians will adapt? So there is a scenario when we have some big AI Chernobyl, could be financial, could be military, whatever. And this is a wake up call and humanity then gets its act together. That's a relatively positive scenario. I can't place kind of a number on it, how likely it is. The problem with AI, the same way that AI is different from our pet dog, AI is also different from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor.

1:04:49because it interacts with us. So if there is an AI catastrophe, you have to remember that the AIs will also manage to some extent how we react to it and will manipulate our views about it. They will be active participants in the debate about the catastrophe, and they are the best spin doctors in the world. They are not going to define it as a catastrophe. I have to say I have a lot of conversations about AI nowadays. This is one of the gloomiest I've had. I mean, I was sort of expecting that. But I guess two very practical questions. One, how much do you yourself use AI? I have you you've clearly you've developed an incredibly sophisticated and alarming sort of perception of what it could be like.

1:05:42I'm just wondering how much how much is it part of your actual life or do you do you watch it? I'm very careful about it. I get terribly annoyed like I try to write an email and these AIs popping should I help you write your email? No, thank you. I don't want your help. But I don't know how to shut it down because the companies keep kind of making it more and more intrusive. I now have this issue again with this kind of AI fake of me that's walking around kind of giving talks in my name. And I think, do I actually need to watch it? Because people are writing me about what this AI fake of me have said, and I need to react.

1:06:19So should I watch it? But then I allow it in a way to take over my time and even my thinking. Because just by watching it, I start interacting with these kind of ideas from the AI. So this is the times in which we are living. Now, again, I tend to talk about the gloomy side simply because we have enough people talking about the positive sides, which are completely real. If AI had no positive potential, nobody would develop it. And the positive potential is enormous, again, in transport, medicine, education, in so many fields. So again, I'm not saying stop all development of AI. Yes, develop it, but in a safe way and a bit more slowly so we enable democratic accountability to take place, it takes time, and we enable people to adjust and make informed decisions about which way they want to go.

1:07:25And for that, the most important narrative to combat is the narrative of inevitability. You wrote in Nexus, I was very struck by this passage in the prologue, you said, why are we so good at accumulating more information and power, but far less successful at acquiring wisdom? And I read that and I came to mind as I've just been digesting what you've just told me. It suggests to me that if I asked you to put a probability on us having the wisdom to navigate this, it would be quite low. I don't know, but there is a fair chance. Why? Because we are up against the wall. Humans often do the wrong things until they have no choice but to do the right thing.

1:08:13And we are in that position. Because if we choose unwisely in the next few years, we could lose all control of the world and of the future. And that's the last choice we make. So it's like we had a genie in the battle. It gave us 100 wishes. We used 99 of them. The world is not in such a good shape. We have one last wish left. We need to think really hard what to use this wish for. And that's wisdom. So AI, in a way, could be the catalyst for some kind of spiritual revolution of humanity, simply because it forces us to think really hard, what does it mean to be human? What is the value of being human?

1:09:02And the superficial answers that we gave for thousands of years, oh, humanity is about intelligence. We know how to play chess and how to invest money better than the chimpanzees. So this is what makes us so special. This answer is now irrelevant because there is something on the planet that knows how to play chess and make money better than us. So dig deeper and try to find out. So who are you really if it's not about playing chess and making money? I think that's a place to end on. AI is our last, we are of our last chance, but it could be, it could be the thing that forces us to make, enables us to make wise choices.

1:09:47I'm pretty sure that the world has a lot more wisdom thanks to your writers. So Yuval, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you.

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1:10:33and evaluate situations with me and lead me towards success. Listening is a form of love. Find resources to help you support your kids and their emotional well-being at SoundItOutTogether.org. That's SoundItOutTogether.org. Brought to you by the Ad Council and Pivotal. You stopped waiting for permission and started building yourself, your dreams, your credit. Experian Boost could turn your on-time payments into instant FICO score gains. Every bill you paid could become proof of your power. Self-made? Absolutely. Self-funded? Experian could help you get there. Download the Experian app today. Results will vary.

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