Big meet, little meat: the Trump-Xi summit

0:00This intelligence podcast is sponsored by Perk, the intelligent platform for travel and spend. Every person on your team loses up to seven hours a week doing the work behind the work, submitting expenses, matching receipts and booking travel. Using AI and automation, Perk can do that work, bringing travel and spend together in one place. Enjoy three months without platform fees when you sign up at Perk.com forward slash the intelligence. That's Perk.com forward slash the intelligence. New U.S.-based corporate customers only. Terms apply. This intelligence podcast is sponsored by business travel on hotels.com.

0:35Does booking business travel feel like another job? Hotels.com makes booking work trips easy and rewarding. It's easy because you can set your preferences once and get results tailored to your business travel needs every time. It's rewarding because with hotels.com's free rewards program, you can save instantly on your next work trip and earn rewards for future travel. Book faster with confidence at Hotels.com. Loyalty members 18+.

1:09Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

1:19Today on the show, how a British right-wing influencer is influencing American politics, and a tribute to Bob Mackey, dressmaker to the stars.

1:34First up, though.

1:43So much of diplomacy is the orchestrated little stuff. Who stands where on the stage? Whose hand is in front during a handshake? Yesterday, Donald Trump went big on a little thing. Where to meet Xi Jinping. It's been 64 years since a sitting president met a foreign leader as they deplained.

2:05It was all pageantry from there. Military band and cannon fire and flyovers and those big guns with the bayonets and stuff. Mr. Trump, it seems, loves this kind of thing. And it's sort of telling he wanted to lay it on so thick ahead of their meeting. Here's pretty much the most detailed summary currently available on how it went. We had a great meeting. They had a great meeting. There was so much to discuss. So what came of it? There has been a great show of goodwill between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Xi called for peaceful coexistence between the two countries, a lot more cooperation for the business world, cooperation on AI.

2:52Simon Rabinovich is our Beijing bureau chief. President Trump, for his part, said that the two countries had never gotten along better. But the truth is that beyond some nice words and an awful lot of pomp and ceremony, the actual outcomes of the summit look to have been extremely meager. So what were you expecting? What do you think people in general were expecting from this summit going into it? Well, I think it's important to step back for a second to remember that although there's very positive mood music right now between America and China, they are still in the midst of a trade war, which dates back to the start of Donald Trump's first term in office.

3:33And last year, it looked like they were headed for a total rupture in economic terms with tariffs on each other of more than triple digits. Now, they've been in a basic truce since October of last year, and there had been hopes that this year might bring bigger breakthroughs in the bilateral relationship. This summit in Washington is the second of a possible four meetings between the leaders this year. Trump came to Beijing in May. Of course, Xi Jinping is in Washington right now. And it's possible they'll be seeing each other again in November and in December. So there had been hope that this year might prove to be a hinge point where things get to a more stable path for the two great superpowers.

4:17But there's a lot of stumbling blocks in that path. What did they talk about this time around? The single most important outcome, and it is important, although it was widely expected, is that the truce between the two countries has been extended, the trade truce. They will not be racing to raise tariffs on each other. China will be continuing to export rare earth's key group of critical minerals to America needed for American industry. That will continue as well. Now, unfortunately, the two countries still have a lot to disagree about. So there had been some talk about the idea that China would like that truce to be extended for the duration of Trump's second term.

4:55As a matter of fact, the truce expires in November and they've only agreed to extend it for two months. So there will be a lot more trade talks between the two countries over the next little while. There are two other big categories of discussion. One is AI and whether the two countries can find some way to manage the risks that are facing not just them but all of humanity. And the other is security and specifically China pushing for America to oppose Taiwanese independence. and seeing whether or not they have a chance to get Donald Trump to agree to something which previous U.S. presidents would not agree to.

5:32And so where do things stand on those two counts on AI and defense? On AI, they've agreed to have a dialogue. In some ways, that's nothing new. In fact, even under the Biden administration, there were already talks on AI between the two countries taking place. And the fact of the matter is they've basically agreed that they both want to move at their own pace. They see themselves not as cooperating on AI, but really being locked in a fierce competition. So no big breakthrough, not even a real hotline being established to warn each other about significant AI risks. On the matter of Taiwan, Xi Jinping has made a stronger demand of Donald Trump more public now than we've seen in the past, which is he specifically has asked that America oppose Taiwan independence.

6:18Previously, America's wording has effectively been that it does not support Taiwanese independence. Xi Jinping has made a really big emphasis on the idea that the two countries need to be in a relationship of strategic stability. And he's trying to link this to American opposition to Taiwanese independence. We don't yet have a detailed word out on what exactly President Trump said in response to those demands. Certainly a lot of American officials and advisors are concerned that he might give too much away. So that has been one key issue to watch. And you've been talking to a lot of people in China about how the relationship has been evolving.

6:55What are you hearing? I think the single most important thing is that China is acting from a position of much, much greater confidence now. They were really thrown off balance in Trump's first term. They hadn't encountered that kind of aggressive behavior on the economic front from America. And so they were thrown off kilter. They've had several years to digest what is Donald Trump's approach to geopolitics. The industrial picture is a lot stronger for China. They believe that they've achieved much greater self-reliance in a range of different technological sectors. They're not nearly as advanced as America in semiconductors yet, but they're closer to the frontier than they used to be.

7:36So heading into Donald Trump's second term, they knew that they would be able to fight back with more force, which is exactly what they did. So when they got the truce last year and then built up into the summit in May with Trump in Beijing, they redefined the relationship with America as being, quote-unquote, a constructive relationship of strategic stability, which sounds all very nice, but when you actually speak to Chinese advisors, the way that they actually describe it is as a relationship of strategic stalemate. And those are words which are drawn, in fact, from Mao Zedong, which refer to the idea that China had been this revolutionary underdog and it has caught up to incumbent power in America.

8:23So simply getting to the point that China is now effectively a pure power to America and equal, able to fight it to a standstill, that is already seen as great, great progress by the Chinese side. And what about from the American side? How do you think the Trump administration sees this evolving relationship? Well, certainly there's an acknowledgement that China has a great deal of leverage, and that's why they gave up on their big tariffs on China. And that's why Donald Trump seems to be talking about China and Xi Jinping in particular in much more respectful, even deferential terms. People in America and Washington have been aghast at the treatment that was accorded to Xi Jinping on arrival in Washington with President Trump greeting him on the tarmac.

9:08Having said that, there still is a lot of belief that China has a lot more to give to America. They've been asking for China to step up its purchases of American products, specifically of soybeans, of beef, of Boeings. There's great disappointment that in this particular summit, it does not appear that China has made any big purchase commitments, but there will be more meetings over the course of the year. And Trump's trade officials, Jameson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, and Scott Best and the Treasury Secretary, they still believe that America has economic leverage over China. They see China as being an export-reliant economy, which is not entirely true, but that certainly is their conception of China.

9:55So one of the reasons why the truce has only been expended for two months is that they think they will be able to wrest more concessions out of China and get to a bigger and better deal. But where do you see this going? Strategic stalemate sounds like an unstable equilibrium. And clearly, as you say, China has a certain amount of momentum at the moment. What do you expect from the next couple of summits from the next couple of years? Part of the risk of there not being enough substance to this meeting is that you might begin to see some of the momentum petering out for more leader-to-leader meetings over the rest of the year.

10:28But there clearly are a lot of big topics for these two countries to get together on. In terms of geo-security, China has an awful lot of leverage over Iran, both in terms of supplying satellite imagery to Iran, which it has used for bombings, including bombings that have killed Americans. China is a crucial exporter and supplier of dual-use technology to Iran, and the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil. So the Americans are certainly hoping for China to play what the Americans would see as a more constructive role in helping to get them out of the pickle that they've created for themselves in Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz.

11:04And then the question of whether Trump does change America's position on Taiwan, because this is an area where China sees a really, really unique opportunity with Donald Trump as president. These are things that no other American leader would really be willing to change American policy on. Even if Trump does change American policy, it's possible that whoever follows after him will reverse it. Nevertheless, China sees the next two years the Trump presidency as being a possible soft patch in American diplomatic power and therefore giving it a chance to make real inroads on issues of core security, of core interest to it.

11:44Simon, thanks very much for your time. Thank you, Jason.

12:15From failing to join Saudi Arabia this month in strikes against the Houthis, to a quiet departure from Iraq, America is getting out, and countries including Iran, Turkey, and Israel are poised to fill the void. Edward Carr, our deputy editor, is joined by a panel of our top Middle East experts to consider what it would mean for the main source of security in the region to be a local power for the first time in a century. If you're a digital subscriber, Insider is already included in your subscription. And if you're listening for free, you can watch extended clips via the link in our show notes.

13:13You a discounted subscription plan. Head to Scribd.com to claim yours. That's S-C-R-I-B-D.com. Must be 18 or over. Meet Amazon Ads rising star Daryl Spencer, who set out to redefine men's self-care with his brand Crown Skin. Amazon Ads helped him grow. I walked away from big tech to build a luxury brand in a category that no one was paying attention to. With the help of Amazon Ads, I'm reaching relevant audiences and competing with the biggest names in men's grooming. We've scaled to over$500 ,000 in monthly revenue. Watch Crown Skin's story at advertising.amazon.com slash rising-stars.

14:02On the Weekend Intelligence tomorrow is the final installment of our three-part series, Shire Folk. The story of how some of the most powerful people in America came to see Britain and Islam through the eyes of a fringe football hooligan named Tommy Robinson. The growing anti-Muslim feeling in America can be most clearly seen in Texas. And our correspondent Georgia Banjo traveled there to see how Mr. Robinson's brand of right-wing rabble-rousing has found traction among Texans as they approach the midterm elections. And she's here with me to talk about it. Hello, Georgia. Hello, Jason. So first, for those who haven't heard of or about Tommy Robinson, who is he?

14:42Tommy Robinson, when he first came on the scene, he was wearing a balaclava. He was using a pseudonym. Tommy Robinson isn't his real name. It's Stephen Yaxley Lennon. So he started out as a co-founder of the English Defence League in 2009. That was really an anti-Islam street movement. Since then, he's rebranded himself as a citizen journalist. So someone who posts a lot of videos doing what he calls journalism, showing the world what he says is the truth. And now he's become increasingly influential among certain parts of the internet. And certain parts of America. I mean, what do Texans make of him?

15:25So Tommy Robinson isn't a household name in America. But if you chat to certain people in the MAGA movement, he definitely is. So when we were travelling around Texas, I met lots of people who'd heard of Tommy Robinson, some of them Christian nationalists, some of them retirees who just think that Europe is gone. It's a certain type of person who would know who Tommy Robinson is, but he is becoming more well known. Tommy Robinson's main message is to warn that Islam is fundamentally incompatible with the West. And he points to Britain as a sort of cautionary tale for America. America has a much smaller Muslim population than Britain does in the rest of Europe.

16:04And Robinson's message is essentially to say, if you're not careful, this is coming for you too. And his influence is more than just with the MAGA enthusiasts, but rather with the elites of the movement too. Yeah, exactly. So one of the people I met when I was in America was a senator named Tommy Tuberville. He's from Alabama, he met Tommy Robinson. He said that he was inspired by his ideas. It's not just politicians, it's also Elon Musk, who obviously owns X. And Tommy Robinson has essentially become one of Musk's favorite influences. He amplifies his messages. So Tommy Robinson, earlier this year, he went on a visit to America.

16:46It was his big American tour. Just to give you a sense, Tommy Robinson has multiple criminal convictions. I'm sure you know Jason as an American that it's quite hard to get into the US if you've got that sort of record. But he got a waiver from the State Department. And not only that, he then got invited on a tour by an official at the State Department. And there's some incredible pictures of Tommy Robinson in the John Quincy Adams state drawing room looking at old documents and being given a special treatment. And yeah, a certain number of American elites are increasingly looking to his message and using it as well for their own ends.

17:22But tell me about where this message is landing. What is a sort of snapshot of anti-Islam sentiment in America right now? So we've said that Tommy Robinson has been finding an audience among politicians. We're also beginning to see public views shifting as well. So there was a recent survey by the Pew Research Center which showed that 51 % of Americans think that Islam is a more violent religion than others. And just for comparison, if you go back to 2001 and the aftermath of the horrendous September 11th attacks, that was 25%. So we are seeing this shift in public sentiment. We are seeing this idea that Muslims pose a particular threat to the West.

18:04That is becoming a more majority view, even if not everyone would agree with everything that Tommy Robinson thinks. And from what you saw, do you think his message is going to have an impact on the outcomes of the coming midterms? Yeah, I think we can see that already. So when we went to Texas, they just had some primaries at the time, and there'd been a huge focus on the rise of Sharia law, as many of the candidates put it. And we're seeing that even more now as we approach the midterms. So at the center of controversy really in Texas is a mosque in Plano, which is in the suburban area of Dallas.

18:45And there was a huge controversy about plans for the mosque to develop a community, so to build homes which are for the community who go to the mosque. And perhaps unfortunately they called that place Epic City, after East Plano Islamic Centre. But that then became the idea that Sharia enclaves were coming to Texas. The governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, picked up on it, so did many of these politicians. and that firestorm, if you like, has now continued into these midterms. Down-ballot candidates as well now say that they think they've been invaded by Muslims. Again, Muslims are about 1 % of the population in America, but it's really turned into this almost culture clash, which is also dividing in some ways the Republican Party.

19:30And in the course of reporting this, you did eventually get to speak to Mr. Robinson himself. What did he have to say to you? Yeah, so it was a bit of a weird moment because I've spent quite a few months following this man online, reading what he says, watching his videos. And yes, eventually I did have a chat with him. And in many ways, it wasn't surprising. If you follow Robinson's message, you know what he's about. He's about this idea that Britain has been invaded by Islamists, that it's been betrayed by woke liberal elites. And of course, we in the mainstream media are part of those elites, right?

20:05So he's not the biggest fan of The Economist, as you might expect. but he is in many ways more relevant than ever and his message is a bleak one. It's a bit like Elon Musk who The Economist recently interviewed who warns of a coming civil war. Tommy Robinson's message is unless we deal with some of these issues profound unrest is coming to the west the country is screwed and whatever you think of that message I think it is now something that we've got to be thinking seriously about. But what was he like when you sat down to chat? So I spoke to him a couple of times. One time he was walking his dog.

20:41You doorstepped him while he was walking his dog. Well, actually, he called me Jason. He was walking his German Shepherd. The signal wasn't brilliant. But, you know, he's kind of cordial. One-on-one, he's fairly charismatic. He's got a consistent message. There's lots of caricatures about Tommy Robinson. He's just a flat, out-and-out racist. He has very unpalatable views. But he is speaking to a number of people that believe his message, that are worried about some of the things he says. And he can communicate that message very effectively. What is the nugget then? What is the thing that you want the listeners to take away from this series?

21:17When we set out to do this series, my aim was always to try and understand this movement. It's not something that I agree with. Lots of this stuff. Tommy Robinson's message is not something that's appealing to me. But I thought it was worth trying to understand where it comes from. Just because we ignore someone in the mainstream media doesn't mean their ideas go away. Quite the contrary. Often they can develop a very powerful alternate base of support. And indeed, every time you try and cancel someone like that, that often makes them more powerful, right? Because they can tell their followers to ignore what's being said about them in the mainstream media.

21:51So I would love people to take away that you might not agree with what we believe at The Economist. You might not agree with what Tommy Robinson thinks. But we do need to try and understand these ideas. And we don't want to surrender that space to people who have their own agenda. We need space to have real conversations. Georgia, thanks very much for your time. Thanks as ever, Jason.

22:27Ann Wroe:Everyone remembered that dress. Anne Rowe is The Economist's obituaries editor. It was a long sheath, floor length, and beaded all over. And Marilyn Monroe wore it to sing in Madison Square Garden. Happy birthday to you. She was addressing President John F. Kennedy, who was then 45. Her voice was light and shy, but not many people were noticing the voice. They were looking at the dress, and this had been designed by Bob Mackey. And after then, all kinds of outrageous outfits were produced by Bob Mackey for the stars of the day.

23:22Ann Wroe:very memorably he put Cher in a dress called the Naked Illusion which was sheer but just scattered with white sequins and she wore that to the Met Gala in 1974 it caused an absolute scandal. Then he designed for her, four years later, a flame dress, which again gave the impression of a fire that was licking every part of her body. He designed for Tina Turner when she broke up with Ike, a tunic dress fringed with gold and silver chains and with gold lamy wings as if she was going to fly away. He put Diana Ross in a long evening gown, again shocking, with beads and the sheer vividness of the blue.

24:14Ann Wroe:He believed in having glitter everywhere. It was said he never saw a sequin or rhinestone that he didn't like. He didn't design for many men, but Elton John was a very keen client of his. He dressed Elton in a sequined baseball uniform when he went to play a concert in the Dodgers Stadium. He later dressed him as a sequined Donald Duck because he always wanted to be dressed up in something Disney. The reason he loved glitter so much was because he thought of the star, all the spotlights of the world, it seemed, on them, and they had to prove that they were the most special person in the place.

25:04Ann Wroe:And that was why he loved to think of them shimmering in the lights and showing their whole presence as brightly as they could. His weekly trips to the cinema with his mother and half-sister were the real joy of his childhood, which was otherwise rather lonely brought up by a very strict grandmother. But once he'd seen an American in Paris, he began to create little cut-out figures and dress them in shiny paper clothes. And already his career was mapped out in front of him. He'd never been that interested, however, in fashion itself. He thought just producing clothes to wear was heartless and also boring.