In arms’ way: Gaza-deal sticking points

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1:05The Economist

1:12Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

1:21Today on the show, the small business entrepreneurship boom in America and why radio remains so popular in Africa.

1:36But first...

1:43Day after day, news from Gaza brings the same message. Israel is carrying out strikes and Palestinians are dying. Only the number changes. It's not what you might have expected if you took President Donald Trump's announcement from last Thursday at face value.

2:01Anshel Pfeffer:It's a great breakthrough. Nobody's ever thought that would, nobody thought that would be possible to disarm Hamas. That shows you how much success we're having with Iran. Hamas would lay down its arms in Gaza and Israeli forces would withdraw, as simple and as synchronized as that. Exactly what had been laid out by the Board of Peace that Mr. Trump assembled in January. By yesterday, the board was doing the repetitive but necessary business of walking back a Trump promise. Well, we know that there is an agreement between Hamas and the Board of Peace and between the Board of Peace and Israel, which is supposed to set out a timetable for both the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

2:51Anshel Pfeffer:Anshul Pfeffer is our Israel correspondent. In reality, both sides seem deeply skeptical and are basically waiting for the other side to screw it up. And before we get into what it is that would screw it up, let's talk about what things are like in Gaza at the moment. What is the situation on the ground? Roughly 2.1 million Gazans are now clustered in around a third of the Gaza Strip territory. Around three quarters of them are displaced. That means that either their previous homes are in the area under Israeli occupation or their homes have been destroyed and they're in temporary housing. In the nearly 10 months since the ceasefire, what was officially a ceasefire, was announced, over 1 ,200 have been killed in Gaza by Israeli strikes.

3:42And who is in control? Who's actually running things and how much of things are they running?

3:49Anshel Pfeffer:Well, currently there are three forces inside Gaza. There's Israeli army, which occupies about two-thirds of the territory. The remaining third is under Hamas control. And even though Hamas said a couple of months ago that they're relinquishing control of civilian affairs in Gaza, from all accounts, they're still very much in control of what's happening there in the third of the territory. They rule. There are also a number of militias or gangs sponsored by Israel, which are in charge of some small enclaves. And that makes the whole line between Israel and the rest of Gaza quite blurred. And that's one of the things that they're trying to work out now is where exactly Israel will withdraw to in the interim period.

4:41And as you say, it's 10 months on since a deal that was to end the conflict. Doesn't sound as if it's ended.

4:47Anshel Pfeffer:Well, when Donald Trump announced his 20-point plan 10 months ago, it was already clear then that while those points did, in principle, lead to an end to the war, to the withdrawal of the Israelis, to disarmament of Hamas and to the reconstruction of Gaza, there were a lot of details that needed to be filled in. It wasn't at all clear. who would be implementing all this. And it wasn't at all clear whether Hamas or Israel would actually agree to it, even though they agreed in principle to the 20-point plan. It's something we've talked a lot on the show about, the nature of the deals that the Trump administration strikes being sort of sketchy at best.

5:28But what we've heard most recently is that Hamas has agreed to disarm. It's not as simple as that, though, is it?

5:34Anshel Pfeffer:No, it's not as simple as that. For a start, it isn't quite clear what the sequencing of this will be, How, which arms does Hamas divest themselves of? Who will take over those arms? Will they be stored in Gaza? Will they be destroyed? Will they be taken elsewhere? Hamas has since pushed back and said that any arms that it gives up will not be taken out of Gaza and will only be kept in storage by a Palestinian administration there in Gaza. Israel at the same time has said that it won't withdraw from any part of Gaza that it currently controls, unless Hamas first disarms completely. Obviously, Hamas wants Israel first to withdraw, and then it will start disarming.

6:16Anshel Pfeffer:So these issues of the sequence of how it's going to happen are still very much up in the air. The Board of Peace, which has been in charge of negotiating these deals, said that there is a timetable. We're yet to see it. The head of the Board of Peace, Nikolai Mladenov, was here in Israel yesterday day meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And after that meeting, there was a clarification that Israel will be required to withdraw only after Hamas ends the disarmament. So that's still very much all up in the air. But the fact that we've had this announcement suggests that something is changing.

6:51There's some momentum here. Are things materially different, do you think?

6:54Anshel Pfeffer:Well, on the ground, nothing has changed so far. Israel has continued to attack. Just on Sunday, It carried out a series of airstrikes killing 19 people. Israel claims that they were members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Some of them were civilians as well. But the main questions of when Hamas will start disarming and how will Israel, if at all, withdraw and where to, they still remain unaddressed. And you've got this alphabet soup of new groups and organizations that are supposed to be taking charge. in Gaza. You've got NCAG, the National Committee for Administration of Gaza, which is supposed to be the Palestinian technocratic government that's going to come in and take charge of Gaza.

7:39Anshel Pfeffer:They've been by the pool in Cairo now for nearly 10 months. The Israeli cabinet authorized last week their entrance into Gaza, but we still don't know when it's going to happen. And when it does happen, what part of Gaza will they be in charge of? What will their powers be? They're supposed to have some kind of a new policing force. Where are those police officers going to come from? We've heard that they've been training in Jordan, but we still have yet to see them. Then there's the International Stabilization Force, which is a, as the name says, it's an international force of peacekeepers. They are also supposed to arrive soon in Gaza, but it's a very small force, at least to begin with.

8:19Anshel Pfeffer:Only a couple of hundred personnel from Morocco and Uganda. and once again it isn't clear where they're supposed to be deployed and what their powers are to be. And then there's the IVC, an international verification committee who was supposed to verify Hamas' disarmament and we still don't know who they're going to be and what their procedures are going to be. So this announcement by Donald Trump on Thursday, a great breakthrough that Israel and Hamas are very happy with and it's going to ensure peace in Gaza and beyond, is a tad premature. But as far as Israel and Hamas themselves, you said each side is waiting for the other to screw it up.

9:01Why did you choose that framing?

9:03Anshel Pfeffer:Well, from Hamas's perspective, they're in no rush to relinquish power in Gaza and they certainly don't want to give up on their arms. On the other hand, they are under a lot of pressure from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, the countries which, without them, Hamas really can't operate around the region. Egypt is the way that Hamas leaders can leave Gaza and go back in again. Turkey and Qatar are Hamas's main patrons in the Arab world. And those three countries are working with the Trump administration and they want to show that they can get some kind of progress out of Hamas. So Hamas have had no choice but to accept in principle the agreement, even though they've already pushed back on the issue of disarmament.

9:49Anshel Pfeffer:And then on the Israeli side, there's a similar dynamic. Benjamin Netanyahu is under a lot of pressure from Donald Trump. He needs to show that Trump is still on his side, that we've seen in the last few weeks, quite a bit of tension between them. So Netanyahu is facing election in 85 days. He's behind in the polls and he needs to hold on to his coalition. Any sign that he's prepared to withdraw from Gaza will be very disruptive to his coalition, to his far-right allies. So he's keeping quiet about this so far. It doesn't sound like there is a way to resolve all of these tensions to everyone's satisfaction, clearly, or else that would have been done in the past 10 months.

10:31How do you see any real movement happening?

10:35Anshel Pfeffer:Well, diplomats I've been talking to have been involved in this say there is movement and there will be movement, but it will be much, much slower than the announcements from Trump and from his Board of Peace would give the impression. It'll be really at a snail's pace, unlikely to see much movement before the election in Israel because Netanyahu can't pay the political price of any developments in Gaza. But there may be a window of opportunity immediately after the election. There could be a withdrawal of Israeli troops from what's called the orange line, which is the unofficial line that they currently hold, to the yellow line, which is sort of the official ceasefire lines from last October.

11:18Anshel Pfeffer:So these are very marginal changes. They could also be finally the arrival in Gaza of the technocrats and they could start, at least they could open their office and start taking responsibility for some parts of life in Gaza. But these will be slow and very, very small steps. Anshul, thanks very much for joining us. Thanks for having me, Jason.

11:51This Economist podcast is sponsored by Bill, the intelligent finance platform that helps businesses and accounting firms scale with proven results. With AI-powered automation, Bill isn't just moving money. They're simplifying financial operations for nearly half a million customers. Bill has securely processed over a trillion dollars in transactions. That's proven infrastructure. Ready to talk with an expert? Visit bill.com slash proven and get a$150 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.com slash proven. Terms and conditions apply. See offer page for details. When demand slowed for HydroJug, Amazon Ads rising star Hayden Wadsworth pivoted.

12:32When our bank account hit near zero, my brother Jake and I had one last shot to save HydroJug. So we engineered the Traveler, a leak-proof, cup-holder-friendly Tumblr. Amazon Ads enables a business to be able to expand their product shelf because of the visibility and the reach you can get. Each week, our new-to-brand customers make up about 95 % of all of our sales. Watch HydroJug's story at advertising.amazon.com slash rising-stars.

13:04One version of the American dream has always been being your own boss. going all the way back to colonial days when New Yorkers borrowed the word boss from the Dutch. But for a while there, fewer and fewer Americans actually did start their own businesses. Until recently. So America's experiencing a boom in small businesses. Shira Aviglona is a business correspondent for The Economist. One way you can see that is that full-time self-employment reached its highest level this century in 2025. So about 16.8 million Americans worked full time for themselves. And we've also seen a huge boom in the number of new business applications.

13:44And a lot of those are concentrated in things like retail, health care and professional services. OK, when did this big uptick actually start? So we first saw a huge rise in the number of new business applications during the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. And we think a lot of that was related to either people losing their job or moving to a different place or their job changed a lot. So they decided it's time to try something different. What's amazing is that it's actually continued to be at a high level every month and, in fact, even recently surpassed some of the highs of the COVID pandemic.

14:19So Americans are still moving in droves to start their own firms, even though we're not in that unprecedented moment anymore. So what's changed then if this is not just a sort of tale of the pandemic effect? So part of this has to do with the general macroeconomic environment. For the past few years, American firms have been in a low hire, low fire environment. So they're not laying too many people off, but they're not hiring a lot of new people. Young people in particular, people who are outside the labor market may have seen that, you know, I don't really have a way to get in, so I might as well start my own business.

14:51And we see some evidence that a lot of these new entrepreneurs are young. Another thing is just that various changes, including ones that started during the pandemic, people might have moved somewhere else, worked remotely, then they had a return to office order and they decided, I actually like living here, so I'm going to start my own business and not return to my old job. And then I think another thing is just shifting consumption patterns. Some of these businesses, especially the one in healthcare and social care, are catering to an aging population, so they might be, for example, home healthcare aides starting their own business.

15:21And another There might be just the huge growth of online retail that's also part of the long tail of the pandemic. You can become a pretty successful small business owner selling pill cases or selling merch that has to do with a certain TV show. And you can find an audience online through platforms like TikTok Shop, where it's really easy for even someone with relatively few resources to reach a huge pool of consumers. Because we speak so much on the show about AI, I'm tempted to ask whether AI has anything to do with this. Yes. So I think AI may not be the reason why this started, but it's certainly a tailwind that has continued to push it higher.

15:58Many of the things that might have made it difficult to start your own business, it's hard to find an accountant or maybe expensive, you don't know how to draw up contracts, are now no longer as much of an issue. I spoke to some small business owners who said, yeah, I just use a chatbot to bounce ideas off of. They're like my co-founder. I say, are these good colors for my Pilates studio or how do I build a website? And so the share of founders who say they're using AI in surveys has really risen. And we think that that is a big reason why people who might have been on the fence now say, well, there's no reason not to.

16:32So if this is a bigger and seemingly ever growing fraction of the economy, what are the macro effects here? So traditionally, we would have said that small businesses are the most helpful. We want them the most when they're going to be job creators. Most of this new wave are businesses that the government thinks is not likely to hire anyone, at least at first. People have AI, right? They don't need a bunch of stuff. Of course. But I think that should cause us to maybe reconsider some of those assumptions about what makes a productive business. So Sam Altman, the boss of OpenAI, has talked for a while about when will we see the first billion-dollar firm that's just one person, and possibly that company already exists.

17:12So hiring and payroll is not necessarily a proxy for having a successful business anymore. I guess the other thing is Americans have always loved this idea of being your own boss, but over the past century, we've seen a slow march towards working for larger firms, and this may reverse that. And people say that's what they want, then it might lead them to have happier and more fulfilling careers. Shira, thanks very much for joining us. Thank you so much.

18:06Transcription by CastingWords Streaming video abound, but lots and lots of Africans still literally tune in to radio. I love my radio. You don't know how much I love, babe. Please, please. Radio, baby, I think you found it.

18:35Radio has done surprisingly well in Africa. You'd expect the proliferation of smartphones and social media to have really reduced listenership, but it hasn't. William Finlater writes for The Economist. Radio's advantages are clear. It's cheap. It doesn't require internet connectivity. it helps kill time and traffic jams that clog Africa's cities. And is this just a historical effect that radio has been around for a while and just simply hasn't been crowded out yet? That's certainly part of it. Broadcast towers first went up in Africa in the 1920s. They were promoted by colonial regimes because they wanted to control messaging and it seemed like an effective way to do so.

19:17But liberation movements set up clandestine stations And in the 1960s, post-colonial governments really started taking ownership of this radio infrastructure, started doing things like subsidizing transistor sets, state-controlled radio stations. And many of these advertised some of the grand modernist dreams of nation builders like Kenneth Counter or Kwame Nkrumah. But even in the 90s and the noughties, radio was continuing to expand across the continent. The liberalization of state controls really led to a proliferation of stations, particularly commercial. Certainly, I think that the history definitely plays a role in why there's just so many listeners today.

20:10Is that to say then that it's an older demographic that just remembers the prior eras of radio? or is it everyone? It is everyone, I think. Over half of Africans between 18 to 35 say they regularly get their news from radio, just a little less than those who cite social media as their main source. And if you look at the urban-rural divide as well, it's not that significant. Around 60 % of people in cities and the countryside still listen to radio multiple times a week, according to Afrobarometer, which is a pollster. And I think there's something very interesting potentially actually going on with the internet and radio.