Power ballot: Japanese PM’s electoral gamble

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1:04Economist Podcasts:The Economist

1:11Economist Podcasts:Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

1:16Takaichi Sanae:And I'm Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

1:26Economist Podcasts:In the books about long-ago pirates, on the high seas, anything goes. Turns out it's the same story for fishermen today. There just hasn't been a workable international treaty to protect the high seas and their fishy bounty. Until now.

1:42Takaichi Sanae:And just in case your New Year diet involves drugs too, you'd better listen to this one. The rise of weight loss medicines has led some fancy restaurants to offer tiny meals at fancy prices. Sounds like an unhappy meal to me.

2:04But first…

2:12Takaichi Sanae:Japan's Prime Minister, Takeuchi Sanai, is taking a gamble.

2:21Takaichi Sanae:Yesterday, less than 100 days into her term, she called a snap election. Parliament will be dissolved on Friday, and elections for the powerful lower house held on February 8. That makes it the shortest campaign in Japan's post-war history, and it comes little more than a year after the previous poll. Since becoming Japan's first female prime minister, Takeichi's approval ratings have been consistently high. Less so the group she heads, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP. So will the gamble pay off? Takai Chisanae says it's essential that she wins a direct mandate from the voters.

3:06Takaichi Sanae:In her press conference, she said she wanted to let the people of Japan decide whether or not she should be prime minister. Noah Snyder is our East Asia bureau chief. Now, the part that she didn't say out loud is that this is a pretty big gamble in order to consolidate her power base while her popularity is high. And she's betting that this is the right timing, the peak moment of her popularity to carry the party to a stronger position in the powerful lower house, a stronger position than the one it currently holds, which is a very slim one-seat majority. And the question for Takaichi and for the LDP heading into this election is whether her personal appeal is really enough to help her much less popular party fend off big challenges from a new opposition alliance and from upstart populist outfits.

4:00Takaichi Sanae:So before we get to the election, Noah, I feel like this is a rare chance to talk about a popular politician who's actually in power. Why is she so popular? It is an unusual situation. I mean, both globally and in Japan, Her ratings have been around 70 % or even above 70 % in most polls here since she took office. At this stage in her administration, it's basically the highest ratings we've seen for a Japanese administration since the early 2000s, when the uber-popular Koizumi Junichiro was prime minister. With Takaiichi, I think it's really a question of style more than substance, at least at this stage.

4:40Takaichi Sanae:She's plain spoken, and she's got a performative flair. I mean, just the other week, she was in her hometown of Nara with the South Korean president, Lee Jae-myung, and she busted out her old drumsticks to play a duet with him.

4:57Takaichi Sanae:And she's got a kind of an every-woman background and a really sharp and striking contrast with the leaders who've preceded her, who tended to be older men in gray suits from political dynasties. And that's helped her appeal, especially to younger voters here in Japan. Amongst voters under 30, her ratings have exceeded even 90 % in one recent poll. Her policy accomplishments, by contrast, are thinner. She's passed a big supplementary budget, which had a lot of goodies for voters who've been feeling the pinch from inflation. And she's been deft in her handling of foreign relations, including a big visit from Donald Trump last year.

5:36Takaichi Sanae:And also she's stood up to Chinese pressure during a recent diplomatic spat over Taiwan. So there may be a bit of a rally around the flag effect working in her favor as well. But you said that her party, the LDP, is much less popular. That's right, Rosie. And the party turned to Takaichi last fall in order to revive its flagging fortunes. The LDP, as we've talked about many times before, has long dominated Japanese politics. has held power with only two brief interruptions since its creation in 1955. But in recent years, the party has been slipping. It's gone from one scandal to another over fundraising and campaign practices, and its image has been sullied.

6:17Takaichi Sanae:And at the same time, inflation has been pinching and social media has really come to play a bigger role in Japanese politics. And And that's all made for a much more competitive political scene. So the LDP is feeling that competitive pressure. And while the party has seen its support rise slightly since Takeji took office, it's still only at about the same level as the time of the last lower house election in October of 2024. And that was when the LDP first lost its outright majority in the lower house. So how is the opposition going to approach this election? Well, there's two parts to this story, Rosie.

6:56Takaichi Sanae:One is what's happening with the centrist parties. The old school center-left mainstream opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has just entered into an interesting new alliance with, in fact, the LDP's former coalition partner, Kometo, which is a center-right lay Buddhist party. They're calling themselves the Centrist Reform Alliance. Now, we at The Economist might love to see more reform-minded centrism, but it remains to be seen whether that's what Japanese voters actually want. Nonetheless, that new alliance could pose a big problem for the LDP because Kometo was traditionally really important in mobilizing voters in closely contested districts.

7:39Takaichi Sanae:They've got a big support base from the Buddhist group Sokka Gakkai, and they have helped to swing close districts in many past elections. So that's one thing to watch heading into this vote. But there's also a second part of the story, which is the upstart populists who I mentioned earlier. And how are the upstart populists doing? Do they pose a threat? It's a different kind of threat. They are still relatively small in terms of absolute numbers. But there are two parties that have managed to break through and start to shift the discourse. One is the Democratic Party for the People, which is a centrist outfit with some populist flair.

8:17Takaichi Sanae:But they've been pushing a lot on economic policies that are aimed at helping working people, lowering the burden for the every man and every woman in Japan. And the other is a party that calls itself the Do-It-Yourself Party. You might know them as Sanseito. And they're a more nativist group on the hard right. And they've been hitting hard on immigration and on sort of identity politics issues. Their support rates have slid since Takeuchi took office, which may again be part of the reason why she thinks this is a good moment to call this election. But the underlying forces that have fueled their emergence from immigration to inflation to social media, they're still there.

8:57Takaichi Sanae:So these two parties could play crucial roles in this upcoming election. So what's your verdict, Noah? Will Takeuchi's gamble pay off? How will she do? Well, part of the answer to that question depends on how you define winning, Rosie. And in Japanese politics, as ever, it's not really a question of whether the LDP will win or lose, but by how much the LDP will win. I don't think the LDP is in danger of outright losing power in this election. But if Takaichi emerges with a stronger majority than the one she currently commands, maybe with an outright majority for the LDP on its own without its new coalition partner, she can claim a big victory.

9:38Takaichi Sanae:And that seems to be what a lot of folks are expecting. Markets are already pricing in, essentially, the impact of Takaichi having a freer hand to pursue policies she's promised to implement if she gets this mandate from voters. And a lot of that is big spending, fiscal expansionism, a new industrial policy, defense and security reforms. So we've seen stock markets boom, while bond yields on the flip side have spiked, hitting the highest levels in nearly three decades for long-term government bonds. But there is, of course, a chance that this gamble doesn't pay off. And if that happens, I think Japanese politics, which have been getting messier in recent years, will only continue to get even more messy.

10:23Takaichi Sanae:We'll probably see another turn of the revolving door of prime ministers. Takaichi herself seems to have no illusions about the stakes when she announced the snap election. She made it very clear that she's not only putting her party's standing in parliament on the line, she's putting her own position as prime minister on the line. Noah, thank you very much for talking to me. Thank you, as ever, for having me.

11:24Economist Podcasts:We'll see you next time. could save over$1 ,300 a year. Don't settle for higher rates. Download the Jerry app or visit jerry.ai slash ACAST today.

11:35Takaichi Sanae:There's one place for the newest drops in wellness and performance and the biggest sale of the year. It's The Drop by GNC, curating the best of what's new, handpicked by the pros who know what works. And right now, get it all, buy one, get one 50 % off during the semi-annual Live Well sale. From crushing workouts to leveling up your nutrition and everything in between get the best deals on the latest innovations. All the newness is all on sale right now during the LiveWell sale on The Drop by GNC.

12:13Economist Podcasts:You know the usual suspects when it comes to fronting the global conservation movement. Mostly they're charismatic land animals, pandas, elephants, rhinos. But there is and has long been a glaring blind spot in conservation policy.

12:32Economist Podcasts:The high seas, the parts of the oceans that are outside each maritime country's exclusive economic zone off its shores. Now, at long last, there's a credible international effort to protect those seas from plunder. Up till now, nearly half of the Earth's surface was pretty much a free-for-all when it came to conservation. Dominic Ziegler is a senior editor at The Economist. But international waters will now come under the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Agreement. It's a UN agreement, and it was signed by 145 countries. That's quite an accomplishment in this age when multilateral cooperation is on the way.

13:15Economist Podcasts:And what exactly was the state of play with conservation on the high seas before now? There was no protection? Until now, on the high seas, it's been a wild west. There have been a couple of protected areas that countries that neighbour the high seas have agreed on, but they're very small. Currently, less than 1 % of the high seas. There was also a regulation of kinds amongst fisheries organisations. But these agreements don't protect wildlife or biodiversity more broadly. And besides, most of these organizations are not well run and have allowed massive overfishing of the seas that they are supposed to have oversight of.

13:58Economist Podcasts:So what's prompted this big, sweeping, globe-spanning treaty? Well, scientists for a couple of decades now have been urging protection in the high seas. and that's in big part because of very big declines in many fish stocks, many commercial fish stocks. But there's also more awareness of the importance that the ocean plays as a carbon sink and as a regulator of the climate. And of course this isn't just about biodiversity and sea ecosystems. Many human communities depend upon a healthy sea for their livelihood, for their sustenance. And in ecological terms, the ocean's health is right now going downhill.

14:40Economist Podcasts:Well, tell me more about that. What do you mean by that? Well, the first big issue is overfishing. There have been huge declines in many commercially fished stocks since the 1970s. In fact, one study shows that most fish stocks that are being removed are being removed faster than they can reproduce. More recently, the ocean's crucial contributions to the climate cycle have come into focus. It's not just that the ocean is the Earth's chief climate buffer by absorbing atmospheric heat and slowing global warming. It's also the biggest carbon sink. But here, warming seas, acidification, pollution and degrading ecosystems, well, they're really hurting the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide.

15:25Economist Podcasts:And then lastly, The tiny phytoplankton in the ocean are by far Earth's biggest producers of oxygen. I mean, much more so than tropical forests, for instance. One bacterium alone called Prochlorococcus produces 20 % of the oxygen in our entire biosphere. So how much of this new effort, this treaty, is about directly addressing fishing and how that's done? It's not just that commercial fish stocks are being overfished. It's also that the bycatch of these fishing operations is huge. These are animals like dolphins, turtles, sharks. And so the harm to the ocean by fishing is not just commercial fish stocks.

16:07Economist Podcasts:It's widespread and it's devastating. We've seen sharp falls in the populations of a number of charismatic megafauna. And of course, the most hugely destructive thing is bottom trawling. I mean, these are great heavy beams that drag nets across the seabed. And they not only catch the commercial fish that are being hunted, they leave a nuclear winter behind. It's incredibly damaging. So talk me through the structure of this treaty and how it aims to deal with the damage caused by fishing and indeed by any other mismanagement of the oceans. The High Seas Treaty has a few key pillars. One is equitably sharing scientific knowledge and marine resources, especially marine genetic resources.

16:49Economist Podcasts:Now, this is slightly for the future, but a better understanding of marine genetics might open new avenues for pharmaceuticals. It might just be valuable for understanding the kind of biodiversity in the ocean that we're all trying to protect. But the treaty is very clear. The ocean is the common heritage of mankind. Another pillar, and an important one, is the requirement that all activities in the ocean that might have an impact must be accompanied by an environmental impact. assessment. And then these assessments are also going to be shared. So it's going to be really important for determining which activities in the ocean, fishing, seabed mining, extraction of oil and gas, which ones are harmful and which are not.

17:34Economist Podcasts:Lastly, and perhaps most important, the High Seas Treaty allows for areas of the ocean to be designated as marine protected areas. And in these no fishing or other resource extraction can take place. As on land, protected areas are by far the best way to ensure the health of ecosystems and of biodiversity. And to work best, they need to be big and they need to be networked to a broader canvas of marine protected areas. You know, after all, fish, phytoplankton, whales, they're all highly mobile. They go to different places to breed, different places to feed, and it's important that the protected areas reflect those habits.

18:16Economist Podcasts:All of that makes great sense and sounds like a worthy goal, but it's easy to be skeptical that all of this can be done, that everyone will pull together to head off the tragedy of the commons. Well, you're right to be skeptical, Jason, and there's an awful lot of bureaucratic progress that has to be made first. But still, I do think that this treaty really marks significant progress, and although not every country has signed up, notably the US doesn't want to be part of it right now, 145 countries have come together and have acknowledged that there are problems in the ocean and there are problems that affect humans too.

18:54Economist Podcasts:So I'm hopeful. I really think that now is the best chance in years for protecting the high seas and that chance is really there for countries to take. Dom, thanks very much for joining us. Thank you, Jason.

19:38Economist Podcasts:from Imperial caviar, seared King's fallop,

19:41Takaichi Sanae:a chicken essence. Otto's is a restaurant in London best known for serving generous portions of indulgent French dishes. Henrietta McFarlane is a senior producer on The Intelligence. The co-owner, Otto Tepasse, talked me through menus of lobster, pressed duck, burgers heaped with caviar and foie gras.

20:03Economist Podcasts:I've been doing a lot of these burgers,

20:05Takaichi Sanae:which are basically

20:06Economist Podcasts:more than 600 grams of meat and lobster and caviar and truffle and so on and our portions