India at Risk: US+Pakistan Friendship, China Strategy & Greenland | Aditya | FO468 Raj Shamani

32:31What do you do in that? small towns, slowly you start to do it, progress you keep progressing, you keep progressing slowly, slowly, in a very way, layers, so this is what they do. Also they, soft power through they want to control, so what they do usually is, that the map will make a new new map, that map will be written in India, that area will not be done, but that will So, today he will speak and then maybe 10-15 years later, historically he will quote that, look, this is my area and then we'll start taking control of the region and that's how they start going in. It's more like a psychologically and a way to quote in history in future.

33:16Like, I don't know how to explain this in a better way. So, let's say, today he's doing the map redrawing. It's not that today someone will get confused and will give it to India. who will give it to him and that means that India part is gone. Nothing is going to happen. The world is not going to take seriously. India is not going to take anything to him. But 15 years later when he will do salami slicing again, then he will quote that look, my job was 15 years ago and that was this. Then they had a dispute. Yes. This is how you basically soft way rewrite history. Yeah. It does make sense but what they rely on is Pakistan.

33:52Right? because you can keep both borders now the operation was closed China was giving direct access to Pakistan they were getting real time updates all the borders so yeah they keep doing it but why is China not building friendship with us because we are a big consumption market so isn't it good for them in some way that India prosperous or thrive because after the US and China the biggest market in the world is India which is going to become very prominent as we move forward. That is true but I have told you that they have to dominate. So, the zones of influence, you see Russia's zone of influence has reduced.

34:39US's zone of influence What did the US look like from Venezuela? Madeleine. Because you have to keep all of them in the zone of influence in the check that no one will reach that level of military might to not reach to you which you need to challenge to. We talk about India. History is not a subject. It's not a talking point. It's literally a lesson and a weapon. So China, any country, Russia, in fact, China, Russia, both are very paranoid that they should not military might with their military might. They will do our friends with anything. They will always hedge their bets. They will and keep What's their biggest market now?

35:18US? Yeah exactly. But when they started the tariff, they started to diversify them. And then where? A lot of countries, they are selling that in Laos, in Mexico, in smaller countries. Is their consumption demand there heavy? It's not very heavy but if you are in multiple areas in small countries You might be able to live some. yeah exactly but even with US they have a lot of bargaining chips China does have a lot of bargaining chips like US rare earth minerals the biggest bargaining chip China against US is rare earth minerals if you look at recent meeting Aasemuneer Trump he was standing there like a salesman Aasemuneer he was opening briefcase rare earth minerals because that is his pitch see you nothing else we are providing a geo-strategic place or we are providing financial development, weapons, nothing.

36:18Look, rare earth minerals. That is why US wants Pakistan. Rare earth minerals. I want Pakistan. Pakistan, rare earth minerals in Balochistan. So they are trying that. Pakistan is opening up their 6 trillion worth of. They are. They are. In fact, US has now a mine deal signed. It's a 1.23 billion dollars deal. And that mine basically copper and gold where they are going to mine and other things whatever they find so yeah Pakistan is opening up the markets right now and this is you know the most strange thing Pakistan is the country where US and China directly almost almost in the same territory this is something very new how Pakistan is managing what it will become I don't know consider this although China investment in Pakistan is very much it's around 60 to 70 billion in CPAC, China-Pakistan economic corridor.

37:16But if you see America's investment, it's just that$1.5 billion. It's also more than that, but I'm talking about that region, Balochistan, and around. Here, the government of Pakistan, the central government, that's doing deal sign. The US has come, China has come. The separatist group has come from Balochistan. It's a very, you know, it's become a little bit of a bitch. There's a lot of things. There will be a point, the US has a little meaning, or China has come from. they want that region so it can happen slowly if Baloch Liberation Army which is the separatist group is active very much so maybe US or China should have to deal with them diplomatically already China if you see CPAC from 2034 they were multiple attacks specifically Chinese they were attacking they were attacking Chinese embassy whatever CPAC they were working they were multiple attacks so after that China is fed up China has also tried to do it.

38:14In fact, I was reading China was trying to talk to some separatist groups in Balochistan. Yes, we deal with it. So, there are many things happening there. What's India's take on this? India's take is of course, we're going to whatever we're going to do, we're going to criticize time and again how many resources are being sold from the US, China and Baloch people. This is our stance currently, Baloch people should fight fight to fight to fight to the liberation army on paper we only show verbal support but we did not anything and support covertly we can do a lot in Balochistan of course we must have funded those groups we will do we don't know now we are entering zone of conspiracy from facts so we don't know we talk about in India US Yeah, whatever it was.

39:10Whatever is this current scenario. Yes. Then, I have 10 things that are very fascinating in recent times. Information warfare or whatever, 10 things that you want to know. Okay. Yes. Like 10 things that the world should know right now, which you have read and it's like incredible. Why is the world sleeping on it? Makes sense. Makes sense. We're talking about India and US. So, what's the scene of India and US? कभी क्या scene चल रहे है? India, US का चल तो बहुत ख़तरना क रहे है tariff का ही main game है it's like कि पिछले साल 25 % initial जो tariff लगाया था US ने वो तो वो बहुत countries पे लगा रहा था India पे 25 % आया था उसका purpose था कि US को लगता है कि उनका trade imbalance है countries के साथ that they will finish their own industry manufacturing jobs so the 25 % tariff was in India in that regime but from that Russia's scene that Russia's oil is selling us on that basis it was 25 % additional so the total standing tariff is 50 % now the game is that 2026 starts this is all Iran so now Iran Because of Iran, the US wants to impose more tariffs on India.

40:19In fact, any country who is trading with Iran, they talk about sanctions. The tariffs are about 500 % too, Trump. After one point, what difference is it? 1000%, 2000 %? But because we do dealings with Iran, our trade is also on their port, and in Chabar port, we also dealings with them. is because of that we also have sanctions in the US which wanted to put in every trade so India has taken an exemption for till April 2026 we have taken an exemption we have taken an exemption that we would have taken an exemption that we would have taken an exemption until we would have taken an exemption naturally trade with them India has not said anything it's a very fickle place it feels like a diplomatic win for India that we have without anything committed to that we will finish everything with Iran.

41:14At least in the media we have without anything committed to that we will finish everything with Iran. We have taken an extension that we will not put any sanctions on this time. Currently, the sanctions have been lost. Iran, which countries have dealt with deal with China, Russia, will do all of them. Why do you want to put sanctions on Iran and why do you want to put sanctions on Iran? So see, one reason is that the US partner in the region is Israel. And the only plausible threat to Israel in that region is Iran, because they have nukes. So, the US will be able to do in internal matters and be able to do that.

41:53The leader of Ayatollah Khamenei is there, right? US does not like him. Israel does not like him. He's not a democratically chosen leader, right? He's not. He's a supreme leader. US is like democracy. We'll take democracy. That's the whole angle. That's the word democracy. Yes, that used to be. Now that's also gone. In fact, consider Venezuela. What happened in Venezuela? Maduro took place. Now, who is leading Venezuela? Does anybody know? Del C. Rodriguez. Maduro's second in command. Right? The Nobel Peace Prize winner now in 2025, Mariah Machado. What did she do? She was waiting for so many years.

42:32She was waiting for so many years. She was giving all the support of Venezuela. She didn't give anything. And even she was right away. When the US announced it, Trump said, okay, we took Maduro. We're not doing anything further in Venezuela. And she said, I don't feel Miss Machado has all the support of Venezuelans. So she was like, what? I thought that in Venezuela we are democracy. This was the whole pitch. In Venezuela, Maduro is doing the wrong thing. Maduro is doing drugs in America and people don't do favour. People have someone else's vote. Before Juan Guido was done in 2019 and Trump recognized.

43:12Now Maria Machado was done. So everybody had this feeling that in Venezuela we will now the regime change in Venezuela. Because America was the same strategy. ji ہوتی تھی but no it feels like ki bas hunhye dikhana tha we are the big daddy we were talking about Iran haa to ab Iran mein US doesn't like for multiple reasons uske baar Trump ne aap kajin bhi kar liya Trump just goes on a yap rant wo kuch bhi bol djeta hai kabhi kabhi to anheunne twitter pe zaake ye bhi elan kar diya ta ki Iran mein agar protesters ko marna shuru kiya Ayatollah Khameini ne to I will invade my action loonga we are locked and loaded to ab of Of course, there was a protest.

43:51If you saw the previous protests in the past, in the 2022, in the 2019, they were very bloody. The protesters killed. They killed and killed. In this case, there was a blackout. After the internet blackout, the world knew what was going on. But news was coming. And I'm sure that American president knew that the protesters were going on. So, they were coming to a very fickle place. I said that my words won't stay. there, Khameen continue doing it, protesters are being shot dead, this is happening to control them, they are very radical measures, so Trump is in a fickle state, but there too I have to say that America is no more interested in democracy give you another example Iranian prince, exile because Khameen is doing it when 1979 I believe, when Khameen came in power, Shah Shah regime took the US-backed regime, Shah regime took the Shah's sons now, Rezavi Palwa maybe I'm pronouncing it right but Rezavi Palwa was in America when everything was in Iran they had statements for the protesters that you fight and go and say, I'm with you Iran, protesters are saying that he should be the one leading it and here Trump was the one with them Rezavi Palwa and Trump meeting was the one with them and Trump has said that I am not sure about meeting this guy I don't know again that if this guy has support of the people, I see Iran's but I am not even he didn't do meeting with them, Trump didn't do meeting with Rezavi Palwa, he didn't do meeting he can be contender for the Khamenei, so as I said America is not interested in changing governments at all he just wants to see that we can dominate existing players but how are they showing this dominance Are they able to?

46:11Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and Russia, Ukraine etc. So, Russia has more incentive to act on something and the other has less. So, Ukraine is related to NATO and anyone else. It will have to understand that that the US zone of influence is very far. And Russia has more incentive to act on something. So, Russia has always more incentive to invade if they feel threatened. So this should have thought before NATO joining You can't think that NATO has US You can see that their zone of influence Very far away And the same as America's zone of influence Venezuela Venezuela is thinking that I'm going to be Russia and China with a friend of mine But you can't do it Because you're in their zone of influence So they have more incentive To come Russia and China will not come to save See Russia and China still Military wise, global economic wise influence wise it's very far I don't know why they were even thinking that these guys will be able to save them but Ukraine's thinking is probably not very bad because America's influence is all around the world with their bases with their military power they can launch something in any country and they have so much speed they have so much that they have 24 hours to any place they can stop their country's might and in 24 hours they can shift the whole world's power from anywhere from anywhere from anywhere because of their technology advancements so zone of influence is not going to be very difficult for them now talk about financial power so EU is a lot of influence in terms of finances as well so they can control their finances as well near Ukraine so America can do this is an expectation that America can do this is something that analysts say that Ukraine should have thought that it is in their zone of influence there is a standing example that will unfold in the next 4-5 years Taiwan so let's see Taiwan is very far from the US but the billionaires are in their zone of influence it is very important TSMC they have all the chips from there China has a one China policy which Taiwan without any discussion China का ही पाट है वो मानते हैं और अभी -अभी in January Pentagon ने US Pentagon ने एक report निकाली है जिसमें उन्होंने बताया है कैसे China is preparing to take Taiwan by 2027 Explain China का तीसरे aircraft carrier अभी बनके आया है and they are clear with it कि वो इसी purpose के लिए design हुए और वो बाकी दो aircraft carrier is very advanced.

48:54Although US aircraft carrier is not strong, but I'll tell you the most interesting thing. Pentagon is saying this, that China is increasing their presence by 2027, they can take Taiwan. So, US response should be, that you are increasing in the region. But the US national security strategy is not going to do that. US presence is not substantially increasing there. There are some things here and there. that's it, US doesn't have its presence there US wants Japan, South Korea and Taiwan we give them all of their defense packages and you keep it there so this is a very important thing, that Pentagon can be said there and US assets US approach is that they want to make Porcupine, there is this strategy in geo strategy Porcupine, what happens it happens, that you make a country so dangerous that it to invade the front of the government, the government will get out of the front.

49:53It will get out of the front. How do you do that? You give many defense packages to Taiwan, which will fight for days, and then China will reach successfully. So, you eliminate the top leadership to Taiwan. But you have such decentralized systems, that they don't report the top leadership. If they die, they will fight for days, for months. You build civil resistance armies, bina do ki loog ake sadko pe aap kuch bhi ho ga yasa attack to aap give up ni garo ge, surrender ni garo ge, aap lade te zhao ge jiase kai invasions to kya hoote hai, wahi bhoot jaldi, I think fastest invasion was of Austria by Hitler, it was done in six hours I think to, yeah to aap jitna zyada isko extend kar saktte ho, India ne bangladesh dire baara din mein le lia ta, 90 ,000 prisoners of war, wo how difficult it would be or how bad it would be for us for India if US and Pakistan are friends, it's very strong.

50:53It can be a very, you know, it's a warning sign. We should take a warning sign because what happens now in operation of the time. Pakistan was satellite access direct, which was China. In fact, we also have a Becca sign with US with us in which we should get real-time updates on the US satellites. But we didn't get for some reason. We should take a view from commercial satellite companies. We didn't have real-time updates not coming after operations in the end of the day. Pakistan was coming through Chinese satellites. And after we signed in 2020, we signed in which we have geospatial satellites that will provide Intel to the agreement.

51:36But it differs on case-to-case basis. So I don't know the exact reason, but as I know, it was the same that we had to access commercial satellite data. What is this kichdi happening in the world? Trump is not thinking anything long term. Trump initially put tariffs in small countries. Because we import them and export them. They say, literally, Antarctica, they don't make anything specific to that. And they make it small. They don't have any alternate sources. So that's why trade imbalance is made. But it's put tariffs. It's put across the board that our trade imbalance is. Trade imbalance is not a good way to put tariffs.

52:16If you have a trade imbalance, you have so much money. So, you have so much money. So, when you talk about Russian oil, Russian oil is selling us through itself. So, this was another Russian oil tariff. It was not even made sense of it. In fact, I will tell you that some Russian companies, Rosatom, Norlisk, they had many long-standing oil agreements. They had a lot of time. if they knew this should be very early is he doing good for America no I don't think so he's not things in America a lot of financial analysts say that he's doing good and a lot of people say it's not it's a very nobody's in middle nobody's in like let's watch everybody's like this is a very bad people are like this is a very good he made the DOGE the Department of Government Efficiency he had so many essential things and after he came out that he was all about on paper Even in some places, he has adolus and cancer research, adolus and diabetes research funding card in many universities.

53:20So, it's absolute bullshit. Besides, if you will see macro economic level that you are saying that manufacturing jobs are increasing, nothing is happening. What did tariffs have been substantiated? I don't think so. What was substantiated? What was the benefit? I don't think so. The trajectory is not looking favorable in America. It's not. and anyone who says that's not good now if you have seen Fed Chair they are talking about firing him completely democratic institutions and they want to take over so yeah no Fed Chair said himself he is doing this with me because because of this yeah personal vendetta interesting okay they are also talking about credit wala cheese did you read that which one JP Morgan Chase founder managing director chairman did you know in America McDonald's private equity firms did you know that no in America in this point in time total number of McDonald's private equity firms because they feel that the poor to sell burgers literally only 1 % of population fund and the money will become demand it's more demand It's literally like the consumption habits of the poor don't even matter.

54:43That they don't have to pay for the burger. And as many private equity firms have opened, they have to pay for the emeers. Top 1 % too. India may be able to make businesses for top 1%. They do that, yeah. They say. Rather than making it for everyone, at least now. Yeah, you can say that. I mean, I won't be very honest. I feel that this time when you talk about the AI or the business, the best bet is that China was manufacturing in India, it's necessary to do AI. You should become the big patriot, but you should acknowledge that you the amount of money you can't lose into AI, the amount of money you are losing, the amount of money you are losing, you want us to be fine, we will show you the world market, US, that we will make our models.

55:28You cannot. Take the beat, understand that you can't beat America, you become the second alternative. Like China became a manufacturing hub. Our IT sector is how strong. We have FTS, last year UK FTS signed, now EU FTS signed. We have markets open. So, in IT sector, boost people. Okay, do skill development. We are already doing that. Yeah. India is already doing it. They are becoming this layer of industrial application. That's all. Yeah, that's all. I was reading about this. In 2024, I got a Nobel Prize in Economics. It was about Britain or whatever the colonizers were, all European countries like Spain, Britain, Portuguese, which country they were going to go, they left their institutions.

56:17Now it's like a few colonies like US, New Zealand, they succeeded very much. Now there are some colonies that they don't do much. There are many African countries and India also see that they grow very fast as they did the US or New Zealand. So, there was a distinction that there are two types of colonies that you can't say that every colony was on the same scale. They have one extractive colonies, where only British because there were many diseases and these things, or there was no standard of living there, so British didn't stay there, there were elites and the bureaucracy was there. So, the systems didn't transfer there.

56:56We only had resources sources out there and sold their work. There are some colonies like US, New Zealand, there were living conditions there, everything was good. So we were going there, right? Britishers were going there, so systems would transfer well. So this got me thinking that economists are also Nobel prize winning economists are thinking that India was an extractive colony. So you cannot attribute at any stage that India has given any democratic systems like which institutions and which systems that we came to colonization because of it they were despite of it even the Nobel committee itself Europe's gold standard agrees that India was an extractive colony that institutions were not able to come because of it they were there despite of it that we saw our drafters and saw how many things are interesting and that can apply in India the Westminster system the parliamentary you have all the institutions applied so yeah this was something do you think our systems are not given by Britishers they were not they were not given to us by the Britishers we developed them after independence for whatever was best for our population of course we were inspired by them and learned from them because the closest connection to access of books and knowledge was the British books exactly but we had very well-read people which have been going to various countries even American systems have been going to communist countries Nehru, Viyad Ambed they have been going everywhere so they had an idea maybe they thought that these systems best fit India so yes, they were inspired by the British but they were not given to us by the British they were despite of the British because they were saying that you were not an extractive colony interesting so yes and there is something else there is a lot of things I like this.

58:55Information warfare was a big deal. Information warfare. Okay, so basically I'll tell you information warfare is very important. It's about you should handle narrative. So you're done, right? Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine is a proper unit. It's the 77th Brigade if I'm not wrong. Which handles these things. Cyber, information warfare. So when you attack Ukraine because it's such a big country attacking a small country so you have to have a moral in your own people and have a moral in your soldiers so what do you do? you make a fictional character and in this case it was the ghost of Kaiv okay what does it mean?

59:41the ghost of Kaiv was a fictional character before nobody knew what it was but in that time in Ukraine Twitter accounts, Telegram groups it was born there is a pilot who invaded Russia there is a Ukrainian pilot who fell in Russia alone so they made this character even Ukrainian leaders started posting pictures of random pilots and they are sitting in the jet they are not seen in the same way everyone has different photos that this is the ghost of Kaiv everybody believed it the whole of Ukraine believed it and they were like yes we can fight back so what happened we are falling in the 6th we are falling in the 6th we are falling in the 6th they are later later I knew that he was a fake story.

1:00:23So he became a Messiah for the time being. On the other hand, what is propaganda? Propaganda is that you should think that it is your subconscious thought. But someone has planned it. Actually. And you will optimize that propaganda. As I said, propaganda is basically selling something. So, selling is the demand and supply. So, if you want what you want, I optimize it in and around, it will hit more. In the case of Russia, I told Ukraine, I wanted a prophet, he didn't show that he could have a MiG-29. Worthless, useless. Russia was running in the world media, he couldn't show that, look how they are doing, they are doing it.

1:01:13They had to show that we are not attacking Ukraine, we are attacking NATO We are attacking NATO, see how big the power is and this is expanding in our neighborhood So this is what Russia was doing Besides, most of it is signaling the international organizations If we can prove that Pakistan sponsors terror We have a possibility that they will go to the gray list But that is not True information You have to propagate So it's not that Propaganda is always false info But you have to put across Okay So yeah With regards to that Now India and Pakistan There is a lot of information warfare Exactly So you will see There was this video There was this proper video That Pakistan's federal information minister they are going to take a room to the media and they are going to flaunt themselves that this is the place where we have won narrative warfare.

1:02:16Here we were designed content and all things were designed. So that 6-0 was made there. Right? You get this? So they were using facilities and new age tech. They were using content for making content. Here we had a narrative war. So they saw that as a front. The narrative war was not merely, you know, some accessory to them that it's okay, it's okay, people will do their own. They actually coordinated it properly. Here's the last question I have, okay, which is, why do you think all the global institutions like IMF, WTO, UN, why are they ineffective? I'll tell you, first, one reason is of course that no one has a lot of incentive that you have to cooperate with one another.

1:03:08You were doing it for yourself. You were sitting in the UN and you were doing it for yourself because you had to cooperate with your interests globally. globally. COVID-19 everybody understood it's each man for themselves that as much as globalization you will have to make your supply chains resilient, this will have to make it cooperation does not mean shit yeah exactly you get that after COVID-19 people have come to this that it's each man for themselves right, then slowly Ukraine has amplified it more when NATO is not going as a defence pact So UN is going to send peacekeeping force If he has all 5-5 permanent members in the security council Then people will not work WTO, IMF Nobody is actually WTO rules like free trade Who is not saying US and China I don't think anything doesn't mean IMF says that we don't do any kind of funds because there is terror etc etc doesn't think anything it's like it's just it's mockery right now yeah exactly power overrules everything whoever is powerful doesn't matter rules like this is what is happening right now in the world and it shows clearly that no rule, no institution, no democracy, anything is not.

1:04:42If you are powerful, then everything is time passed. If anyone says, pact, pact, friends, nothing is going to happen. We are powerful. We will decide what we will do. Whoever has power, he is running with us. Word, man. True. That's exactly what is happening. Everything was a facade. Yeah, everything was. Power matters before. before but power had an incentive to cooperate now they don't there so now they're like yeah who cares exactly well thank you so much

1:05:19now i'm in ambitsar yes but you took a flight to yeah i know actually i had some work

1:05:32I am a doctor. So, doctor and geopolitics how do you do? Oh, I don't know. You said that everybody would be a content. So, I took your advice, I guess. Thank you so much for watching this episode until the end. Now, you have to do three things. First of all, subscribe to this channel. Because as much as you subscribe, we will get better and valuable guests. Number two, tell me in comments. Tell us about what you liked in this episode and what bad you liked so that we can repeat those mistakes. And which guest you want to see on our podcast so that we can take them and give you more value. And number 3, you have to share this episode with someone.

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1:06:28Thank you.