Trump’s Effect on Indian Economy, Investment Opportunities & US vs India |Saurabh |FO454 Raj Shamani

26:21Now, if the foreign PE's are doing this every day, our promoters will say, why am I sitting? So, our promoter will also pay in valuation. Already in 2025 we will we will keep this story. So, current account deficit was the same in India. When I was born, current account deficit because for example, the mic we are using for this podcast, you're on my phones, right? Much of the electronics, all the electronics record the podcast, everything is imported. Right? So, current account deficit easy to understand. Historically, we have capital account surplus. Videshi people in our country were putting money and the balance of payments was balanced.

27:01Now, current account deficit is also a capital account is also a deficit. it may because Vidashi and Indian promoter are taking money out the Vidashi PE is sending the money back to their funds in New York or California and the Indian promoters are taking their money out to set up family offices in Dubai or Singapore right so as the so my next prediction is foreign PE and Indian promoters carry on selling okay from that logical prediction flow that the rupee will fall down right until we don't sign the rupee will fall down I said, I think that the people don't sign American people, FTA, until they feel cheap popularity can miss their mid-terms are here, cheap popularity can get a good way.

27:45So, logical, I think the price is down to 100. It will run in 2026, it will come in 2026, I will not say that. But it feels down to go down, logical, and if you want to get positive, Dubai and Singapore are so frequent visits, because Dubai Singapore will be so many Indian people and the promoters will be sitting family offices that I have already pressure on every week I am lazy so I am going to avoid I am going to go because I am going to go to Dubai Singapore and I am also getting old but there is so much money in both countries that Dubai Delhi Bangalore which Indian city Dubai Singapore Indian city I think you will be increasingly podcast guests in cities based on and in a way both of these geographies which are UAE and Singapore rulers they are also smart people they are realizing that rich Indians should be a safe banking system and they are saying smart wealthy people welcome come karo and I think both Singapore and Dubai, especially Dubai who are the red carpet rollout it's good to see at a time when we're discussing that America is doing our country it's good to see how the Dubai rulers are very smartly, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are ruling out the red carpet for us and increasingly even even startup founders I'm seeing in India who are not billionaires, probably 1-2-5 million dollar people who are also there and stay in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and stay in India and stay in India.

29:33Now, there is a positive side. The more expensive rupees will be the more our exporters will be the more our exporters. Not just IT exporters, but I think manufactured goods exporters will be the more given that America has kept 50 % on textiles, leather goods, sports goods, gems and jewelry. I think a weaker rupee will help Indian manufacturers make headway in the rest of the world. So India, I think, with some Middle East, New Zealand, and Europe, is making FTA. So, light industrial exports, auto ancillaries, pumps, air compressors, I think, with a cheaper rupee, will do well. I think, even IT services, and we'll come to, I think, there's a new type of gig job which will come to India, I think, for the next two, three years, where the Indian gig worker will be based in India, but he will gig so for a person cheaper rupees is a good thing because it will make her more comparative in the global gig market and the one that will earn or earn in the global gig market will give them more rupees so rebalancing Indian economy from a currency which was arguably overvalued till a year ago I think 80-85 I think rupee was overvalued to say rupee at closer to 100 the rupee will be fairly valued exporters whether it's large IT companies or agriculture exports from top to bottom I think this gig worker piece will become a big deal we'll discuss it later on who will be an individual gig worker who will be sitting in Mulund or Malad or Kora Mangla and gig in the whole world for that it's a good competitive advantage that our currency is strong competitive and we'll come back to that later but our country won't grow will grow?

31:24It will grow but in a way if you think about it, right? If the rupee is overvalued, then the foreign goods are cheaper than they should be and the domestic industry suffers because they can't compete with a, anyway it's hard for domestic industry to compete with China. But an overvalued rupee exacerbates the problem. As it is, Chinese stuff is super comparative. It's overvalued currency. So there's no way on God's earth you can make a phone in India to compete with a Chinese phone without PLI. Now, PLI, how much will you talk about? On the point, production-linked incentives are specific finite.

32:03So, you can't build an economy on the back of PLI. But in a short term for this, a normal person like me and a lot of my viewers, will increase our money for us. So, if I were to say your and my and your viewers' cost of living is rising every 6 to 7 years double exactly right every 5 years and unfortunately salaries are not growing that fast so that gives me a good segue into the economics part of it let's segue into economics which I can see last 5-6 years when we crunched in Marcellus companies salary data we can see salaries are increasing 5-6 % 7 % growing. Cost of living is about 8-9 % growing.

32:56Which is why rule of 72, if we minus 9 % of living is growing, every 8 years cost of living is doubling. I suspect actually the number cost of living inflation might even be close to 10%. Health care, open heart surgery, hernia if any hospital is a operation, 10-15 % is growing. Salana cost is growing Air transport Right Now courtesy the whole fiasco around Indigo we have covered but even before that fiasco cost of travelling between Indian big cities was doubling every 7-8 years Right Education If you want to study in school or you want to send a child the cost was rising at 8-9 % every year So middle class cost of living Mano 8-10 % grow Salaries were not growing that fast So economists In real terms Salary Ghat rihin thi So your salaries Is rate per bada Cost of living Is rate per bada So on average Our estimate is Salaries are shrinking In real terms At 4 % a year So that story I think In 2026 As you rightly said If the currency Will grow Which I think it will The cost of living Inflation Will grow And I don't think someone can go to the employer and say sir ji rupee depreciate ہو gaya you can read my pay rise as well I'm hoping certainly manasaless people come and don't say that sort of rupee depreciate you can read pay rise as well if you say I have to come up as an answer this 4 persons can cover delta so I'm hoping that our office people don't watch this podcast or pay review ke baad karay anyway coming back to the more serious point as as as cost as cost of living rises faster than inflation which means real term salary ghatri hai no lifestyle toh itni glamorous lead karni hai kinkui social media mein sab jund dekh rye hai ki um raj shamani toh london ja rye hai bade bade logo se mil le hai hum kui yaha bia'tke golgappa kha rye hai hum ko bhi london ja nia duba hi jani hai so everybody now wants to live the good life It doesn't matter whether their salary is shrinking or not.

35:17We just need to lead a good life. So, what's happened over the last couple of years, and I think in 2026 it will be more and more. People will take loans. People will take credit to live the good life. So, the data shows that the most common use of personal loans is the most logical use. Use a phone. Second most is to go on holiday. right so second most user personal second most common user personal loans is to go on holiday is perkaal ki user personal loans to live the good life meri khayal se or balloon karayga right i was looking at data this morning ki buy now pay later wala joh data hai unka significant rise aya this year on concert ticket buying achha ji wow so gen z isi liye loan le raha hai credit it lay ra hai, jita ki woy concert mein japa hai.

36:08So what you're saying is right ki good life to chahiye, even at a cost of personal loan or credit. Now, someday the day of reckoning will come because unless aap Coldplay ka concert jitna words you sun lo, right, unless Chris Martin is gonna come and pay your pay your personal loan, aapko kahi se to paise lane padeenge, right? And if your boss is saying ki boss mein toh kuch nini kata sakta, teri rupi ghasri hai, teri real salary niche jari hai, so I think defaults ka panga toad for tariqe se aayega already aarha hai mujhe joh khabar aarhi hai ki defaults ka panga aarha hai kafi idar ho the number remember karke banks or lenders koishish kar raha hai number saaf rakhne ka but I think tough war hai situation so I think defaults ka situation bada raha but don't you think ki jub especially the trend in gen z okay that waisa ki aapko good life chahiyye aapko woh chahiyye jub show off karke ek achhi life jih sakti ho because you see someone on social media that you have grown up and I have a life that doesn't matter that you have to grow up or not that's one trend the other trend is which I see selective slurging so what is happening in that people are reducing their big buys but accumulating that money to do the small buys for example if you ask a young person he says I'm not going to go to a good car.

37:37I'll take Uber. I'll go to a taxi. But I'll go to a concert in VIP. So that money they're saving, which maybe they can go to a bike or a car, and use that money by using them. So they're going to selectively. So let's use this to tease out one or two more protections. So the data I'm getting, the data I'm getting, in 2025, purchase of homes, already 10-15 % count is down. Count of home purchase, right? And remarkable thing is that in the last 25 years, even as personal indebtedness has blasted through the roof, we are the most indebted middle class in the world, if you leave aside home loans. Interestingly, home loans as a percentage of income is not that big.

38:24And as I am saying, the data I can see is that in big cities, count of properties purchased in 2025, If I've already 10-15 wasn't down, how much will this increase in 2026? This will grow. People say, leave this home. Let's live the good life right now. We live on the family. We have a VIP ticket. And we go to Mauritius with a personal loan. Now, this is even more deadly. Because if you bought a house, there is only some asset. You don't have to give a family in an expensive city like Bombay, Bangalore, Delhi. but it is you got something to show the lender when he comes knocking but if you have got a VIP ticket for a concert with a loan then you don't know what you will see that ticket you can't give the lender when he will tell you you can't see my Coldplay VIP ticket you believe me I had a lot of fun so this piece I think is going to be more deadly but it doesn't mean as a young person if he doesn't have the load of the home of the EMI that salary can be used to repay the lifestyle that he or she is living so data is showing that 40 % of people's salary is going to be the EMI so how they live on the salary is not getting the rest of the salary remember the screw is tightening every year.

39:59In my opinion, it was five years ago where the real salary was shrunk. 26 years ago. So, slowly, people will start I mean, breaking in the day and then, we don't have to do it. Screw this, I'm just going to default on the whole bloody thing. What's the time? It's past the parcel. One lender is harassing you. You said, I'll give it to him and take it from him. Right? And that leads to my next prediction. RBI will keep cutting rates. They have no choice. I think RBI will have to cut another 100 bips in 2026 to keep the party rolling. Right? Our central bank is called monetary easing, economists.

40:39Rates will cut by which lenders can keep passing the parcel. Because when we were kids when we were to happy birthday, there used to be this game where parcel was going, music was going. Ball pass. Yes. And then the moment the music business shop which is parceled he was out okay so here music is running RBI RBI music is running and all the lenders are passing the parcel right and they're all hoping here music is running right which also links back to the weaker rupee RBI rates will cut notes will cut monetary easing so that lenders can so that borrowers can say this lender harassed I will give it I will give it from that and take it now 90 days after that, he will start harassing them, but you will be able to take it in 90 days and you will come to a VIP ticket.

41:31And RBI has to keep this game rolling for which they need lower rates. So rates will go down, currency therefore weakens from a monetary aspect as well. So Trump was the dimension of currency, FTA, this is the monetary dimension, right? Link to this, then another prediction I'll make is, I think Bharat government has another round of income tax cuts I think Nirvala ji said what was in Feb 25 she made personal income taxes she made it zero till 12 lakhs of income I think in 2016 the budget of the 1st February 26 will be the first of that and then it will be the need if for some reason 1st February 26 personal income tax relief announced I suspect midway through the year will be the need because that is not disposable income for anyone's loss so you have to give relief remember effectively the employer is saying I can't afford money so the employee is turning to the government and saying you can do something for us so as I said I think the government did the right thing in Feb 25 by cutting income tax I think the government did the right thing in October 25 by cutting GST I think you will have to do another round of tax cuts if for some reason 1st Feb 26 tax cuts nahi mile then I think somewhere halfway through the year expedite karna padega right and this then leads to my point that lower rates lower interest rates lower tax rates falling real wages rising defaults and all of this suggests to me ek bada lender at least one big lender will run into trouble in 26 at least one big lender and RBI will orchestrate a rescue I'm sure Tagada Central Bank and they're on top of this right whatever it is that I'm telling you the research that I read from the RBI financial stability review comes to which it shows that they understand the water is up to the top and I think they'll have to orchestrate at least one okay one rescue right so this prediction is someone's going to be yes someone's going to be In a way, some people have been lost and brought Videshi Niveshak to that.

43:53And Videshi Niveshak has put some money. But Videshi Niveshak has understood that there will be more money. It's going to be 1 billion dollars and it's going to be 2-3 billion dollars because that's a lot of stress. But I think fresh stress will get created in the financial system. And I think the RBI is doing the right thing. They are doing all the right things. They are cutting rates, cut around the money from the Mumbai money market. Now link to this, right? In our country, the family offices are sitting in Dubai, Singapore, they can also see all this. They will say, what are we doing here?

44:31What are we doing here? Let's swing increasingly to investing in Europe, America, East Asia. Because as I said, earnings growth in Europe, America, East Asia, earnings growth is anywhere between 2 to 3x that of India and prevalent valuations are 30-40 % cheaper than India. Right? So, you have to give US, Europe, 14-15 % dollar EPS growth to get 15-16, 17. I mean, obviously, if you want to go and buy Nvidia, it's not going to be cheap. But leaving aside Nvidia, leaving aside the glamour stocks, 5-10-15-20 billion dollar market cap, which is called in Western World, small and mid cap, there are some things growing fast, world reading positions sasti valuation and increasingly I think the social circuit cocktail party circuit which is said in that discussion will turn to Videshi stock portfolio Raj, how are you doing it?

45:30Videshi stock portfolio which is not the old story Videshi stocks we are discussing so if we get a year later then the discussion will be which Videshi stock How much money you can make. Let's take a look at domestic. Domestic is clear. Private equity or promoter is a marketer and gives money. We talk about which you have in Sweden, Germany, Holland, France, which was the public that was not aware of it. And then taking this one step further, let's get into AI. I think AI's impact in 2026 we are all cognizant of AI but I don't think fully we understand that the practical impact we are shooting search words, chat GPT, but commercial impact will be seen in 2026 it is a big deal especially for Europe Europe didn't have enough people, they all were old but AI completely mitigates that issue right so the western economies the European economies had great education systems but their demographics were screwed that gets taken care of by AI right so I think we will see a renaissance of places like Germany Sweden Holland France UK here bright people but not in the world so these people will become world leading companies right and very interesting from 500 bright people say, 50, 100 bright people sitting in any of these countries, sitting anywhere in the world, 50, 100 bright people can now build a multi-billion dollar empire.

47:16Right? That's the power of AI. That Europe will harness it, I think. Our unfortunately story is gone. We had this thing, many young people but AI is going to make it very difficult for them to get jobs. So, I am going to analyze the white-collar jobs data which I am already seeing already last 2024-2025 jobs shrink are 26 because employers are telling me if we have to pay to pay Microsoft for OpenAI or Microsoft for Co-Pilot plus we now have to train our bots so we will pay for that staff and we will pay for that two times we will pay for that so if we have to pay for that so sometimes there is no need to be brought to people.

48:10So, Neeti Aayog Neeti Aayog has a good report in October 25 with NASCOM which is a tech industry trade body and BCG which is a knowledge and management consultancy so they have a report saying that by 2021 around one-fifth of jobs in IT and what they call customer experience call center jobs one-fifth of jobs are gonna be at risk right so new about they are leaving their story they will know what they will do including my generation but the incumbents will become this again feeds back into wage pressure right every year they are about a new graduate system they are growing they can't get jobs the incumbents are getting laid off so wage pressure will become right and employers will obviously be cognizant to this and the smart employers are already laying off workers by their tens of thousands quietly and replacing them with AI so AI is in the background of the economist AI is what is called an adverse supply side shock right AI has put away the waste pressure on India right so AI are two first two two first two first two first two first one is substitution effect So, when the electric light bulb came in 1890, the substitution effect was the candle maker of the thank you.

49:41So, for 2026, we will deal with the substitution effect of AI. But next story will be the complementarity effect. So, going back to electricity, the candle maker of the thank you is a big substitution effect. That's the effect I've spoken about so far for AI. Complementarity effect is the new technology allows you to do things you could never imagine. So, electricity came to Hollywood, a gramophone, a pop star, a rock star. But it seems a little time. Hollywood in 1920s came to the electric light bulb in 1890. Hollywood came to about 30 years. Now, I don't think it's going to take 30 years for AI's complementarity effects to come in.

50:29I think it's going to be 27-28 will be the year where the complementarities kick in, right? And a lot of that complementarity will be around creating potentially as many as 100 million gig jobs around Indians sitting at home, creating data sets, clean data sets on which bots can be trained on around the world, right? So, Manu, there is a hospital chain in Latvia which has to automate its customer call center. They don't want human beings. I think there is no more in Latvia. They don't want human beings. They want a bot to deal with all the customer queries, complaints, etc. So, they'll give 10 years worth of call records to some dude sitting in home in Madurai or Tinunalveli or Pune.

51:19And that person will organize the whole data, label it. And then he'll probably give it to some other guy who's a bot trainer. He'll train the Latvian bot that all the questions and answers in hospital, he bought so AI LLMs America I think the LLMs are now well known some of the China but LLMs which is the actual work will be our country because we are going to be the cheapest this is where the currency cheaper is helpful we are going to be the cheapest most comparative people and I don't think this will require to work out of some big office in Hinge Wadi or you know Bangalore ORR or Gurgaon, you will sit at home and do this work and there'll be new companies that'll be born in India who will coordinate these gig workers.

52:12Okay. Right? So, the big IT firms are laying off people already. Some of them have made it publicly clear that we'll do double work with others. So, they'll lay off lots of people. Many of those people plus a lot of youngsters will find work sitting at home doing gig work in a global market. Right? And it will become a new story. I'm not able to understand the full contours of it. But as far as I understand, you know, I don't think a Wall Street bank will be hiring a big Indian IT services firm to use ChatGPT. Right? They will hire a smaller Indian firm who will then subcontract to gig workers sitting at home.

52:55So, there's a big change. The world that I grew up in, right? You will write, write, in the number log exam and you will get a big job in the company you will get a training you will get a promotion you will get a appraisal you will get a pay rise that story is over right that story is over right my children's life will not be that right my children's life will be will be this world of geek right now what is a very interesting thing what is small companies will be able to create colossal empires and I think India's rebirth will be around this story right so just to give a sense of scale TCS has I think 6 lakh people 6 lakh people work for TCS India's largest IT services company the world's second largest Accenture I think 4-5 lakh people in Accenture Microsoft has 2 lakh people I think right OpenAI I think has 2 ,000 and DeepSeek has 200.

54:03Okay. So, probably the same industry, DeepSeek, 200. TCS, 6 ,000 ,000. Right? And I think this will happen in every one of these. And this is very important for your industry. You are small. I don't think having lots of people in figuring out is going to be the key driver to absolute success. It will be about how you harness your talent, your IP, how you harness technology and what's incredibly exciting, somewhat scarily exciting for people like us who invest in yesterday's companies is the scale of disruption ahead of us so as I said Europe when I go to Europe, my friends who know them are in Europe, they're using this case, small, small, small, 15, 20 30 people are making colossal companies on the back of AI because people need to go completely jali jati hai.

54:56Right? India mein jo loog kar payenge is chiz ko re-imagine kar payenge ki company ko re-imagine kar ni hai. You don't have to go and rate gazillion dollars from venture capital. You have to be creative about how you use technology and you have to re-think how technology works to create solutions for people. Wohan peh India ka renaissance ha re-worth ho ga. And as I said throughout time lagta hai pehle substitution effect ta hai. Which is what we are living through and 2026 will be a big year for the substitution of it. Complementarity effect, in between for India is a big disruption in the conventional job market, linking that to real wage pressure, that VIP concert ticket means lots of Faltu ka loans, defaults, at least a big lender ka panga, RBI cutting rates, flooding the system with money.

55:50This is my 2026. Hopefully, If you are listening to this podcast, if you are going to give you tax cuts to February 1st, then you will be enjoying it. Tell me one thing in this. You talked about complementarity.

56:10སྱག སྱྭག གོ རེང གསྭགས གྭགསྭགར གསྭགྭགའ དགེའའགར གེའར འབར འགེ འགའར འདས གེ རེའར ེའར ཟེགས � in America there was a whole automobile revolution that everyone took a car and mobile went to go so Ford only got 23x but Walmart was 1600x because it became a problem when the Wi-Fi came Cisco who had ready infrastructure was probably a little bit bigger but Netflix was the second order beneficiary that everyone had Wi-Fi so it was more than 500 % than 500 % up to the second order beneficiaries are very important. So now AI is the infrastructure now we are all betting on companies like Nvidia and GPT Open AI or Anthropic they are creating infrastructure do you think this world may be the infrastructure companies that will win in this world second order beneficiaries that will win the infrastructure so let's take it step by step AI is the three parts I'm going to throw it.

57:33Right. First is the chip. The story. Because today, Nvidia's chip shortage is. When the shortage is going to be Nvidia's stock price is going to be. But I don't know how long the shortage is going to be. But, any kind of chip should be. Because at Marsalis, we don't know which chip will be required. What are we doing? The chip ecosystem is going to be. We have taken TSMC. Because all the chips are TSMC. So this is the first story. Today the shortage of chips is probably in 2026. There is probably more shortage in 2026. There is probably more than 2026. Who knows? But TSMC will win. Plus China's LLM has proved it.

58:16It has made 2000 chips. Then the US LLM is 16 ,000. So the difference is less. So the story of chips is hard to call. I think that which chips will win. How much should it be? I'm saying that we support the infrastructure. structure, they buy it. The second is data center. The world is data center. The world is data center. The shortage is in India.

58:39Data center should be. The data center is the circuit breakers, the electrical infrastructure, the shortage is the we buy. The data centers are incredibly energy consumptive. So, the energy shortage is. So, we have gas, we have gas, we have so energy shortage is linked to data center shortage I think it will be made of data center because people will be speared and train AI now as well as you will need to train the AI for which you need the data center to house the data and run the training right now the LLMs itself the way I understand I think there's probably too many LLMs out there right and the way I understand I am sure LLM is similar.

59:30Maybe something different will be. My colleagues tell me Claude is better for writing and Gemini is better for more analytical tasks. I am sure LLM is better for more analytical tasks. But it's 19-20 years I think it's different. Maybe LLM is going to shake out. Especially if Chinese people have to come to LLM. Deep Seek improvements are getting hype. Deep Seek improvements are getting. So if LLM's that the wealth of LLMs is either in the system or in the free. So that means then companies that use the LLMs cleverly is where the wealth will be created. So, it doesn't make money by making the national highway network.

1:00:13On the national highway, the company cleverly logistics infrastructure takes it. It takes it. From that, the company uses clever products to make that infrastructure takes it. It takes it. So, these sorts of companies, the companies that will use the LLMs. The LLMs itself, I think, will be available relatively sasta. The companies that will use the LLMs cleverly will be the winners of the future. Now, those companies can come from the world anywhere. It will be a very competitive market. And perhaps their dominance, unlike my mental model of Asian paints, I might say mental models are not working in AI in age because dominance could be fleeting.

1:00:54Right. So, a Bajaj Finance type company could use proprietary data to reinforce its dominance because they're combining their proprietary data with Microsoft AI. But barring those sorts of exceptional companies who have enormous amounts of proprietary data to train their robots in a way that nobody else can, the new generation of companies that will come through, they might dominate for two, three, four years and then give way to another wave of companies. in the same industry. But I'll still reinforce the electricity example. Electricity was made. Someone didn't think in 1990, even in 1900, that Hollywood will become a gramophone, a rock stars or a film stars.

1:01:41So AI will be a play. AI will do things that people like me, especially people like me, non-techies like me, can't even imagine. And those, companies will come from anywhere in the world, including small town India. And those companies will come from people who are not writing the LLM. They're simply creating applications which run on the LLMs, perhaps sitting in their bedroom in Chandigarh for all I know. So, India's renaissance will be around new gig jobs. The new gig jobs initially will be doing data cleaning, data labeling and bot training for the western world but from that ecosystem the superstar companies of the future who will hopefully lead India forward into out of this era of disruption right the era of disruption is profound for us because our our whole business model has a young that will become a young but AI is changing that model it will become a new model in 2-3 years and we'll have to live through that transition Interesting, so I don't know what will happen But something Second order or third order will become money Yes, what will start thinking That LLM will make other people That will not be able to make other people I will tell you Which people have done today Which people have done in the process Now link to this I think will be Because AI wrote learning And Rattabazi Irrelevant I think I think in 2026 there will be a big discussion in India that our country's education system can really do the job because the education system I grew up in and I suspect even though you are much younger, you grew up in, you are much younger.

1:03:31You are much younger and you are much younger and you will be a hero if you will be a good regurgitate. So whether you are a very elite area, IIT, IIM or not, it doesn't matter. regurgitation me jitnä jyadha aapki taakat uthnä aap hero vun gai indian education system me because ratta marke jitnä wala system right and it's true across the world right to us me aap ivy league for low kuch ta fark pannnä wala hai because the employer is very quickly able to figure out he is rattu hai is ko job ni deni even though

1:04:12actually chalata nigh hai, is ki curiosity kumzor hai, ye bas ratta, ratte wale answer regurgitate karta hai, to I think education system in baut bada behest chalega, 2026 in India mein ki ye kama kar bhi raha hai ya nai, ya falto me bach chok hai kis saal zindagy ke bرباد kar raha hai, right, and then the corporate analog of this will be companies will realize ye powerpoint bazhi se zindagy me kuch haasil nii honne wala agar aap aapne q3 results call mein pachas number dikha diyay market is not gonna give a monkeys because market is a number to you can see you can see you can see you can see or you can see earnings call you can see company storytelling you should have a head you should have quarterly results call or when you are talking to your company your ability to market your company your ability to sell your story to the stock market or indeed to the customer you can see or undergarment the customer will only connect with you if you are good at storytelling.

1:05:15Storytelling will be a big job. So I can by the end of 26 there will be head of storytelling. There will be a job in several companies. It may not be in all companies. Some companies will be perhaps due to adapt. But I think presenting a company, whether it be presenting a company to the stock market or presenting a company to your customer base will be fundamentally about storytelling rather than throwing numbers and saying you understand our numbers because the world will say numbers are given AI will get out of numbers you understand a new way give us a new way to think about your company and companies who are good at that will be brilliant at it so if I see the world around me if I look at say my industry the finance industry Zeroda is brilliant at it Zeroda last 5 years he made a story that this is our job that we do for users that is our varsity his whole podcast construct I think it's a narrative the company and the narrative fuse right and this in turn I think connects to branding to marketing branding, marketing will be increasingly less about how much you have spent it'll be about how strong a story you have a creative how much you have imaginative story rather than you have spent 100 dollars true i that's that's a need that we are seeing it very very obvious remember last year i was telling you about this so this is a service that we are doing for very like niche of our clients where their whole startup from the founder to the company to the large corporate conglomerates billion dollar conglomerates or multi-millionaires so from the MD to the chairman to shareholders to the last person and who's their product and where will the future what's their thing we put down and we build this into a proper story and then we build a full year plan that how to engage the company's narrative and story in a much more palatable way because when you finance the simple word is but now people want to know okay what's the whole story around it how do we trust you more how is your story better than anyone else so we do that and till two years ago we had to pitch this to people that we do this come trust us and this was 2-3-3 months in last eight months it's like they ask us please because you do this I've heard this and at the top the circle is very well connected to each other so if someone is XYZ owner or founder they know each other and then up front they're coming to us and be like okay can we do something and before we even say that we're planning to do something they're like you have what they're for you have to take money like the amount of demand and desperation which is rising is insane so I can tell you just from anecdotal evidence that every company today at least the ones who are smart and who are looking at digital mediums left right center they are reaching out to us and like just so definitely that job prediction of storytelling is rising it's incredible that just 1 year you go from 3-4 months in a day to close and we are not able to supply link to this right conventional media conventional advertising conventional media are joined at the hip because in a way conventional advertising pays for conventional media I think there is a lot of because if storytelling is the way companies will now communicate with the world then conventional advertising is not going to cut it.

1:09:33If conventional advertising is not going to cut it, then conventional media faces a existential challenge. Where will the money come from? If you give up the money, where will the money come from? And that puts alternative media in a very interesting space. The alternative media has its pros and cons. But it's only when I realized over the course of 20, So, 2-3 years ago, people gave me a story teller. They said, I'm wrong. I'm talking about what I'm talking about. I should take a therapy. I should not tell a story. I should only give a number. And in fact, a lot of people also commented that it's a story.

1:10:14And I said, my colleagues also talked about it. I'll just tell a number. You'll say, I'll just tell a story. But then I realized that if you tell a number, it doesn't matter. If I go to a client and pitch Microsoft saying, sir Microsoft 20 times P pay and 17 % EPS can give it to us so you can do it with us because Microsoft people say what a shame if I say on the other hand Microsoft every desktop every desktop is going to be Microsoft and it is $120 billion and every desktop is a file and it is $120 billion and it is $240 billion in the top line there is a 100 billion profit and it is Swobble Inc.

1:10:56Profit उडेल देता है acquisitions में और वो acquisitions ऐसे करता है कि आज से 5 साल बात दुनिया में जो भी चाहिए आज वो खरीद लेता है और यही पईया 50 साल से Bill Gates ने घुमाया है अब Satya Nandela घुमा रहा है और इसी एक कंपरी India so that which I realized has far more resonance and you know once I realized that I realized that if if our reasonably dry job whilst I would love to believe our creative job our reasonably dry closed ended job if our job is like this then it will be more than you guys right and that's when I realized that storytelling will become the world rather than that 45 second jingle right if the 45 second jingle comes into risk because it's not doing an adequate job of representing the story, then that puts conventional media at risk.

1:11:45Right? And then the question is, if conventional media is at risk, what is the alternative forms of media that will arise? I will say this will link back at some stage to AI. I'm not able to join the dots at the moment. But I will say storytelling, the need for the human mind to understand the world through stories rather than facts and figures. And AI's ability to help small companies build giant franchises I think these will join I don't know but I think this will be I believe I don't know about media alternative media what is rising what is not because I think traditional media is also becoming alternative media right but what I feel definitely what will rise at least in next one two years that is ki jo bhat achhe journalist hai aur jo column writers hai na who would like paint a story and write about some phenomena in the world which is going on jo usually pehle kabhi mint mein padhte the hai ya vog mein padhte the hai you know like these people like he alag alag kahi se article nikaalke liktai hai ka hi pa india today i remember i used to read that forbes mein toh je toh bhat achhe journalist or the writers are they will grow for some reason they will maybe their job or way will be just in traditional media or in a private company or as an independent gig worker I don't know but there was the ability to read a story without without being dependent advertiser just observing that and writing a good story like exceptionally good writers who don't try to shift perspective shift करने ही कोश्च करते है उन लोग का rise होगा तो लेविन लेट्स लिंक तो अनदर ट्रेंड सो मैं दुनिया अबर में अलग -अलग TV चैनल वगरा रीच आओट करते हैं अगबार रीच आओट करते हैं और गिव माइ 10 सेंट वर्थ of thinking on what's happening in India.

1:13:49So, sometimes, they take time to tell you what's our relationship. These are large media houses outside India. So, I tell them what's your fault and it doesn't matter which country you're in. You're a conventional media house. You are reluctant to do anything which your government will frown upon. So, and it doesn't matter again, I stress you're in America. in America, UK, Singapore, Japan you are doing a form of self-censorship which doesn't go into the pandemic which is your audience who knows what you are you are saying this is my audience I am giving edited sanitized version so I am adding my time to it let me now find an alternative channel which is not edited and sanitized and I will use my buddhi to figure out what I have to do and what I have to do right in that context so this is background background is that conventional media is the credibility challenge is that because the government is going to be the government and the audience is standing in the mind of credibility which then creates space for the high quality content providers to create their own mini channel yeah YouTube, Insta, wherever you are.

1:15:13And the audience is saying, I knew she was a famous journalist or a famous writer. I can now access her content for whatever, a few rupees, a few cents. And it's available on Spotify or YouTube. So, I'm getting on the platform. Yeah, sub stack or whatever. And these people are now earning a very good living. In fact, from what I can say, some of them are earning a better living than they did when they were part of big. When they were in a job. right this again links back to the gig work it links back to creativity it links back perhaps to ai right because why it links back to ai i have a journalist who specialize in sports just using ai cleverly i can get a lot of legwork done both on doing research and on creating reasonably smart content right i've seen the youngsters in our office create videos 2 minute, 3 minute videos using AI with no other help.

1:16:12So if youngster's doing our office, who are professional, a good sports journalist, he will make a good tennis or cricket video. And then they can publish their content on multiple platforms. So what happens is the narrative that is the way the narrative is controlled. I think this is another prediction that I'm I'm trying to make the narrative control that will be going to be agreed because the the authoritative reputed commentators are no longer working inside the the big shops and again I'm saying this is to the world over right US reasons we've discussed US also the authoritative reputed commentators are independents and they're making a perfectly good living and the public is listening to them, then the narrative control starts eroding, right?

1:17:10And in my opinion, 26 will be a year. We're leaving aside the business model challenges of conventional media. The narrative control challenges of conventional media will also come to the fore. True. Right? So, this is our discussion about economy. Right? Next, sports. So, just to finish off one more thing, right? In our country, all these when we were discussing the story, Indians will start investing abroad, domestic challenges. I think F &O has become a hot potato in our country, futures and options. Because it goes on report, that in the year, 10, 11, 12 billion dollar retail investor is buying 10, 11, 12 billion dollar retail investor.

1:17:49And a lot of this money is going to Wall Street. Because in Wall Street, smart firms are using PhDs in physics and stats to create algos. and here in our country in Bulan Share where Bablu is sitting on his mobile phone on his phone on Nifty Bank and on Nifty Bablu's jail is empty and there is wall street 12 billion dollar bank is empty so Surreal money gaming ban in 2025 I have prediction that by the end of 26 FNO will have restrictions so that Bulan Share and Bulan Share is full of jail and he uses money and he a packet buy a buy a motorbike because SEBI data on average Indian FNO traders lose 1 to 2 lakhs a year average FNO trader 1 to 2 lakh so motorbike comes in right so people like me are telling the government that if you want to recover 12 billion is a lot of money 12 billion is 0.3 0.4 percent of GDP right 12 billion is 1 lakh crores by the way FM we have cut the tax cut in 2025 which was up to 12 lakhs income tax that was roughly 1 lakh crore so you are giving there you are giving 12 billion Wall Street you are giving a gift in the bubble's pocket why are we trying to enrich the American elite we don't have to enrich them so I think by the end of 26 somebody is going to tell our authorities that this is a problem.

1:19:28I know the exchanges make some money out of it and our brokerages make some money, but the loss to the country is profound. And given the challenges we are facing on consumption, my prediction is, in which way Real Money Gaming was banned in 2025, I don't think FNO outright banned because it will create other distortions, but there will be a lot of restrictions. Okay, now let's get into sports. So in sports, I think the biggest thing in the 2020 was Indian women's cricket. both the victory in the world cup or the women's cricket team but I think equally interestingly blind world cup which our ladies won was even bigger because see women's cricket conventional women's cricket there was an upward arc running running in a way it reached a logical climax when we beat South Africa and won the world cup and won the world cup blind cricket at least my knowledge set outside the fact that we are world champions was a stunner for me.

1:20:33Because in my mind there was no money in India, no sponsor, no support. The fact that the BCCI was doing this in the background I found it very pleasantly surprising. So my call is that BCCI is getting to know where I am. BCCI has got that women's cricket in all shapes, forms, avatars is something they want to back big time. And when ithni badi ithni well-funded ithni powerful institution ka proch saan hai mera bet hai ki by the end of 26 the top women's cricketers will be rivaling the men for endorsement contracts right maybe the men will have more contracts than the women but at the per contract value at the for a per contract value i think the top two or three women will be getting paid the same amounts as the top men really right that's very far-fetched So, I think I'm saying, why am I saying it?

1:21:27A, I've been seeing their eyes. B, when I'm watching the women cricketers, I'm realizing they're able to articulate far better than the men can. Right? They're able to articulate far better than the men can. So, for example, World Cup semi-final, Jemima explained how she dealt with her inner demons, how spirituality helped her. plus the fact that you know she's willing to cry on screen right her mom and dad are hugging her right it's very compelling media right it's like it's very compelling media similarly after the World Cup Joe one of the cricketers had a personal situation around marriage and so on it played out in public they were reasonably public about it again very compelling drama right I've never seen like men's cricket personal stories the willingness to share deeply personal stories on screen right because remember cricket is as much media and be vulnerable and strong at the same time lovely right so I think it's a very powerful narrative it's a compelling viewership if you're winning then the public will see that after winning then you're vulnerable then the public will say that we're we're all wild followers now the other aspect why I'm saying Raj ki per endorsement they'll be getting as much is the data we see RBI data and in cities now women have more bank accounts than men the average balance in those bank accounts is more than men's balance RBI data default rates are far lower for women entrepreneurs than for male entrepreneurs and social media or digital spend women are pulling ahead of men so my book was written in 2020 and I had a whole chapter about women rising in India As women regain financial muscle Kharcha karne ki taqat Unki jada hoogi men ke mukaabale The corporate Sponsors, the corporates Who pay for these endorsements, they'll say Yarr, agar me rya customary woman hai Toh ma a middle aged man Ko kya endorsement contract dhe ra ho Let me find a young woman's cricketing star Right, successful hai Baat achha kerti hai, emote achha kerti hai Articulate hai Aur uske saath customer base ki resonance will be more.

1:23:46So, this is my first controversial point of view that by 2026, at the per endorsement value, the top women cricketers will be rivaling the top male cricketers. Interesting. Right? Now, link to this, right? If you leave aside cricket and men, right? If you leave aside the success of our male cricketers, in another sport there is no mental recall in India. Barring our male cricketers in another sport and I don't fully understand why it happens. But you ask if I were to ask a typical viewer of Rajya's podcast that tell me two successful male badminton players in India they wouldn't know. But they would know P.V.

1:24:34Sindhu. Right? We know Sainan Ibal. They would know Sainan Ibal. If I ask a typical Rajshamani ka podcast viewer ki batao mujhe koi famous male boxer I don't think kisikoo kuch pata ho ga Mary Com loko pata ho ga Vijinder Vijinder who shayad north kileo ko pata ho ga I doubt south ka viewer ko Vijinder ki yaad hogi but Mary Com almost everybody pan India basis per e-call hogi toh ye phenomenon mujhe bhout sara sports ma dhikha ra hai ki male barring cricket Indian male sports stars don't have a market but across sports women stars have a market and again as as the digital life becomes the main life and women customers become the main driver of commercial activity I think sports stars women sports stars across sports will get will get supported backed and which I have some friends are grassroots level sports talent finding and gharcha kertے ہیں toh wo log mujhe bhol raha hai ki next wave of for example badminton stars a whole wave of young women badminton players coming through who will rule the world right male male male male male male male male male male male male male male male male male male male male right so I'm telling you too put some money so I'm also thinking how to get money but if I get out then I'll back the next generation of women sports stars right because I'm showing that there's consumer women and I can see the last 4-5 years the women sports stars have far greater recall and resonance than the male stars as I said I can't put my finger on why is it but it's happening Why do you think, like let's say if you have to guess, why do people all of a sudden see more women's sports?

1:26:30I think part of the, at least my superficial, which I'm understanding that customer base is increasingly women. And hence the sponsors are inclined to find women stars to back, right? But it could also be that as India becomes a society, better connected better infrastructure better law and order more digital connect the opportunities for women are exploding in a way that they perhaps aren't for men men have whatever opportunities men have had today they perhaps had it 10 years ago as well but I think women for the orders of magnitude jump so for example like I when I fly in Bombay like I was in Shriwa Ji the number of girls training for various sports right were comparable perhaps even larger than the boys training for various sports.

1:27:21If I had gone to, I remember spending time in Shivaji Park 20 years ago, that was not. It was primarily boys training for primarily cricket. It's a variety of sports. And the number of girls training for a variety of sports, I spend my winter holidays between Christmas and I'm in Kolkata. There is a big sports facility. If I can see there, the number of girls training for boxing, for karate, for combat sport out numbers now the boys the number of boys training. Cricket same same. I see cricket coaching same same. Girls boys. But combat sport the girls training for boxing because it's a big sports arena.

1:28:06I see all sports 10 years ago it was not. So I think opportunities for women are improving and commercial sponsorship I think they're also far more readily available for women's stars. But I have to ask you a question on this. I asked the podcast before. Do you, have you seen in the whole world any sport that started for women and was globally successful and wanted to see viewers on a sustained rate?

1:28:40Even one who was forget beaten men's sport close also so for example gymnastics gymnastics more than male gymnasts female gymnasts whether they're Eastern Europe when USSR used to dominate or today's date when Olympics gymnastics there are male gymnasts as well but the centerpiece of gymnastics in the Olympics is the women's events right but is there an audience for it to watch so at least there's an audience for it to cheer because that country pride comes to it but is there an audience to watch around the world so wherever in western context in western context there's women's sport like football right soccer so women's soccer is now a big deal in fact in North America North America women's soccer is a bigger deal than men's soccer USA has been world champion in women's soccer USA men's soccer now we don't see people like commercial so So obviously soccer in America is, you know, I think American football is the top.

1:29:47Then basketball comes. Then baseball comes. I think soccer comes after that. In the sixth or seventh number. But women's soccer in America, especially the national team playing, gets more eyeballs than men's soccer. In Europe, women's soccer is big. But men's soccer is far bigger. The women's NBA is also quite a big deal. Obviously, men's NBA is a bigger deal. but women's NBA rivals the IPL. Women's NBA has similar sort of financial numbers associated with it as the IPL in our country. Right? So, women's sport is a big deal but it could well be that we become the we become the first country where leaving aside cricket women's sport becomes a bigger deal in a range of areas than men's cricket.

1:30:35Remember, cricket itself is bizarre in our country and no other country is cricket this bigger deal. So, when cricket outlier and it could well be that because our so big country our social mores are in this way that we will make a different ecosystem they play a bunch of things nobody else in the world plays but they are the biggest in that they are the biggest in that they are the biggest in that we will make a story right but sport area especially the rise of women women's cricket is easy to see because it's most visible. And we've won the World Cup. Yes, we've won the World Cup. You saw the World Cup?

1:31:16Incredible. I saw the World Cup as well. I saw the full thing. So I'm going to tell you a story around the World Cup. So, when the final was that day, I was going to Singapore. So, I was 11-10 flight 11-10 pm flight, Singapore flight was. So, I was watching my phone and realized half the airport was watching it on the phone. So, I realized that when the final is not finished, that plane will not fly. and that's exactly what happened. It's basically when Harvanpreet took the final catch that pilot has come on the plane. Till that time they kept coming out from behind after behind. It was a foreign carrier by the way.

1:31:50It was not a foreign carrier. But they kept coming out from behind after behind. That now the plane will shoot. No, it won't shoot. It will shoot. So they delayed the plane by an hour. No way. When Harvanpreet took the final catch that plane moved to the start all of us in the plane were washing out on the phone. We celebrated. Interestingly not the whole plane The whole plane wasn't watching, which I found quite strange. But those who were watching, we were all exalted. And those who were not watching, those who were not watching, they asked what happened. And then when we explained what happened, they felt cheated.

1:32:24How did we know that something's happening so big? And that's when I picked up that this story will be a lot of fun. That they were not watching the plane. And they felt so left out. That it was so big that the first time, a country other than England and Australia won the World Cup and we didn't have a sea we didn't see our phones it was happening in DIY Partial and that's when I realized how big the market is now and that's when I the kernel of that prediction that until until 2026 at the endorsement level women cricketers will be competing on a level footing with the men but then I extrapolated and said this is a broader story around women's sport but let's carry this on further I think badminton we discussed I think new generation of women's superstars I'm not going to name them because I don't want to hex them early in their careers let them do well and they'll probably be hosted by you on your podcast in a few years from now I think India's rise will be running here we are all fighting one sided domination men women are fighting right I am all world champion going to eat the whole table so this will be running here on India's story primarily Western and Southern India Western and Southern India is becoming the world center for chess.

1:33:43So in 26th India will even more get more India will get at an even more dominant position. So I think out of the top 10 men the top 10 male players 3 or 4 4th is that but they don't stay out of India so originally so maybe in top 10 we will get half of our country and this system is very important because I have seen some of the weekends which is a chess circuit it is a very comparative high class and there is no disadvantage versus a player in New York or a player in London you know like along with Vishy sir we also should give credit to a content creator now a leading comedian in India Samah Rana so samay literally like made watching chess cool because he streamed and got fun to it and then there were so many people who are generic people like me who are many millions of people who saw chess that they play at home they didn't know who the legends of the chess world right we started watching only when he was streaming and then he made it like pretty much mainstream.

1:35:02So, that also rose a lot because a person with influential following showed his hobby and showed India's prowess which all dots connected and then it rose a lot. And in a way again, it links back to storytelling. I'm talking about storytelling. If you can take a subject like chess and all credit to Samirana for telling the stories which brought it to life. Yeah. Then you can imagine the power of storytelling to transform any activity. And again linking it back to new media, corporate sponsorship. In chess there wasn't such a big conventional TV channel that got rights after that. A big property launched.

1:35:49Right. Because where there is streaming, online, democratized and thus the corporate sponsorship as well is a very different construct to what it's it is in IPL. IPL is big companies big companies big companies in chess you know all created to Esbridge for backing Gukesh but the whole construct around corporate sponsorship around chess will be far more democratized far more niche companies and that's great because then the bachchas who are coming through will get but now Adani's have started sponsoring a lot of these athletes have they? okay I didn't realize chess so Prague is I think with Adani now right So, if the big companies come in, by the time the child is in his early teens, he'll be already boasting a seven-figure net worth.

1:36:37And then after that, I don't think training partners will be an issue. So, this story will go. And thankfully, this is a multi-gender story. Here, boys and girls are killing it. Both of them. Whereas, in other sportsmen, usually, there's my sister.

1:36:54So, now, let's get to the last heading, Raj. so pollution and politics before we go there I have to ask you a question I asked this to Prague as well before you even be hosted in here is why do you think we have no champion of wrestler from South India and no chess champion from North India I think I think this my superficial explanation will be around the geography of our country, right? The North has been open to invasion for centuries, right? Invaders' route through Afghanistan, through Pakistan into the plains of Northern India is a well-known route. And effectively every 20 years, Northern India has been invaded, looted, attacked, conquered, etc.

1:37:49And that's really therefore North Indian society is based around physical prowess. Can you keep the invader out? Can you look after your property, your family, your life, livelihood? Right? And South in the south never kept serious right? Even the deepest the Mongols and the Mughal invaders reached, I think the deepest they got to was Hyderabad. And then South didn't go to Madurai, no invader reached to Madurai. So there were two things. away. North May, therefore, the need to be physically strong, physically alert, prepared, created a natural route into, created a natural breeding ground for wrestlers.

1:38:39South May, that physical threat was simply not as big a deal. And hence, you could take the longer view and focus on more intellectual stuff. The other aspect is as an investor, I always look at discount rates. If you don't know if you live or die, then your discount rate is very high. After 2-3 years, it hasn't got that much relevance for you because you can't afford to look that far. You will focus on the here and now. Your food will be very rich and nutritious intended to help you deal with the invader. And your prep in life, your training in life will also be focused on dealing with the invader, not doing some intellectual bazi.

1:39:23On the other hand, if those pressures are not there, your diet, your thinking will be about after 5-10-15 years, what will I do? What will I be doing? And the life of the mind and the life of training the mind will take far more preeminence. And that's how I reckon the science and intellectual aspect of India has increasingly become a southern activity where it's protecting the country and physical and martial things of the Kama, Northern activity. Now, whether the British also encourage this or not, I don't fully understand but this is my crude topography between seeing life in Madurai. I've been to Madurai lots of times and seeing life in Ludhiana and I've seen life in Ludhiana a few times as well and I love both places but they are chalk and cheese.

1:40:11Interesting. Interesting take. Okay. You were talking about next insight. Last segment about pollution and politics. So, first of all, I think what are the predictions of this? Pollution is a big deal. It's obvious that it's having an impact on us. All you have to do is go to Delhi for a day November, December, Jan, Feb. If anybody doubts how big an issue it is, go to Delhi for a day. Don't wear a mask and see what it does to your body. So, my first prediction is that at some stage in the winter months, Delhi will be declared an unlivable city. and November, December, Jan, Feb. Next year. I mean, this year.

1:40:53So, maybe 20. Now, naturally, if you declare Delhi unlivable, you still have to run the country from somewhere. So, I was thinking, where will it happen? So, I was thinking, what do you do today? They used to say, the English used to say, that Delhi is too hot and they used to make Shimla the summer capital. So, the whole English administrators, they used to go to Shimla. They used to go to Kalkala and take a toy train. and so on. So, summer in Delhi is alright. It's hot but you can deal with it thanks to air conditioning. So, I think winter capital India will have to find out. My hunch Ahmedabad will become the winter capital of India.

1:41:31So, November, December, Jan, Feb. I think Ahmedabad will become the winter capital. Ahmedabad in winter is pretty decent. I've been there to work through the year and winter there's no problem in the winter. Delhi has no problem clearly in Ahmedabad. Now, what's the reason? what do we say, is it a issue of crops or what I don't know. But Ahmedabad is far better than Delhi in the winter months. So, if they had to choose a candidate for obvious reasons, Ahmedabad, I think, Ahmedabad, I think, becomes the natural candidate given the identity of the dominant politicians in Delhi and given that they have obvious interests in Ahmedabad, it makes sense that if winter capital India needs, and I think winter capital needs India, so Ahmedabad becomes the natural candidate for becoming the winter capital.

1:42:15That in turn links to another issue, 2036 Olympics. So India has already told that Ahmedabad will be their candidate. Until I understand, until 2026 or 27, will be tried to do it in the beginning. International IOC, International Olympics Committee will have to announce the winner of the 2036 Olympics bid. India has named Ahmedabad. I think Ahmedabad will win it. By the end of 26 or beginning of 27, IOC will I think announce Ahmedabad as the winner of the 2036 Olympics ka bid right and that in turn will lead to billions of dollars of wealth creation activity right you have to have stadiums, you have to have hotels you have to have colossal transport infrastructure so a big story this is going to be a big story in 2036 Olympics Ahmedabad will get and I think it will get and I am joining the two right in a way making Ahmedabad the winter capital will also give more credibility to the bid that this is our city.

1:43:14Because normally when a country is bid for the Olympics, really the capital city is the contender, right? So, when it was in Greece, Athens was the contender. When it was in Japan, it was in Tokyo, right? So, it was a little odd that Delhi didn't have it. It's understandable that Delhi didn't have it. Because if you didn't get it, how do you host the Olympics? You can't host it in the summer because it will die in the 50 degree heat. you can't host it in the winter because you can't breathe. So Delhi therefore got new truck was cancelled out. That's when I started realizing winter capital will need India to.

1:43:49That's when the idea of Ahmedabad came and then Ahmedabad also becomes the winner of the 2036 Olympics. Then the whole thing aligns very nicely. When it will be a big game, stadiums, hotels, transport infrastructure, huge amounts of money, construction contracts, right? Will they host in a state where there's no alcohol, there's no celebration. Now, the sports star doesn't drink alcohol, right? It's supposed to be... Like the people, when they come, they go to any sporting event, the large sale is hotel, restaurant, beverages, like food and beverages. This is the major price. Any sporting event in the world.

1:44:26In the previous World Cup, it was in Qatar, right? The Qataris held firm. They didn't allow, they didn't serve alcohol. I think, in fact, they didn't even allow alcohol bans to be. I think, they didn't allow alcohol brands to be associated with the World Cup no no no that was there so Ahmedabad I know because we have an office in gift city gift city is allowed there is a gift city Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad there is a gift city there is a drinking allowed so maybe there will be a carve out but I think that will be a secondary issue right so Ahmedabad becomes the winter capital of India Ahmedabad also goes on to win the 2036 Olympics right then linking this back to now politics right in 2017 India will be the only census sorry I remember the last census in 2011 usually every 10 years census but because of COVID it didn't happen in 2021 so in 2017 it will be the census and what the law says is after the census India has to make a call on delimitation.

1:45:40Delimitation means how many parliamentary seats how many people will get the state from which state will get the state okay so in today's rate Southern India has roughly one third of the people seats right given how India's population has changed and this people seat allocation which holds today was done back in 71 at 71 and 2026. At this time, the population share is likely to have dropped. And my reckoning is it would have gone from one-third to perhaps one-fourth, maybe one-fourth. It will have been down. It will have been down. So, if the census is 27 and the constitutional act says the census has to be respected because one man, one vote has to be respected, then as per the census southern India is likely to drop from one third to one fourth.

1:46:46Now the challenge this poses is India's GDP and a lot of tax collection comes from south. So already south people have said we pay for half the taxes we only get we only get one third of the seats in parliament. so after in 2007 India turns to the south and says look boys and girls you pay for half the taxes but you're only going to have one-fourth of the seats in parliament right I don't think they'll be happy right because people can broadly figure out this maths

1:47:25it's above my pay grade I don't have the answer to this what I can you know you wanted a prediction as my reckoning is by Diwali 26 delimitation and this whole north-south issue will be a garam mudda because the census will be getting ever closer and with the census looming the whole issue of what percentage of seeds go to the south. So there will be naturally a need to find a fix and whichever political neta can find a fix good for him. But this is a big mudda right. And then I'll finish with the with a prediction on on narratives and scams right. So, my reading of India, I was born in 1976 and the first big scam I saw first up close was Bofors.

1:48:12So, I was in the 80s school kit. So, I saw Bofors, the rumbling scan around Bofors, who bought the gun, who got money, etc. And then, every 5-6 years there is a scam. Usually, India is a scam when the narrative is broken. Right. So, I thought before, I was thinking, scam comes, then narrative breaks. And as I grew older, I realized scam comes when narrative breaks. Right. So, just going, using the Bofors example, you know, till early 80s India, I had this narrative that I'm a lot of socialist country, everyone is doing everything, taxing the poor, taxing the poor, it was a narrative. And people like my dad's generation were enthusiastic votaries of that.

1:49:01My dad used to work for public center enterprises and his job was, I will do my job, I will pay tax, I will pay tax for the tax. And if it's in the poor, the country will grow. But by the early 80s, people in India were fed up on that narrative. And the first consumption wave started. Maruti car came, I think 83, 84. Maruti cars started. Maruti 800 started. Imported electronic goods started. burgers and fries and ice cream fast food culture in Delhi came in Delhi. And in mid-80s there was a mini consumption wave and people realized that this narrative is a false narrative. We will pay tax and we will pay tax.

1:49:47What sort of false socialist narrative is this. And Bofors in a way followed that followed the destruction of that narrative. right so I think it's still a break in India's narrative India's narrative still I think challenged and linking back to whatever we discussed over the last few hours AI the destruction of office jobs the challenges around wages for the middle class this whole borrowing right I think the whole narrative that if we are good kids in India we will study good kids will get jobs will get further that narrative is breaking because nobody can control nobody can assure me that my kids will get a job because AI will not be jobs so when the narrative is breaking then disillusionment comes right people are broke and in that void comes scams right So AI is so big shock and it's attacking the middle class narrative that I think in 2026, the disillusionment probabilities are rising.

1:51:08Again, link that back to what we discussed around the ability of the mainstream media to control any given narrative across the world is coming under pressure. right so I think we are 2026 we are very interesting yeah very interesting lots of things will change lot of old certainties are gonna fade away it'll compel all of us it'll compel me it'll compel many other investors like me to rethink the world you have to do a lot of work that you have to rethink and re-think it and pay money but it does feel like an end of an era where old certainties get washed away by the geopolitics that Trump and his supporters have unleashed the tech changes that AI social media have unleashed and the demographic changes that our country is going through the whole north versus south where there is prosperity in the south but there is no population growth in the north but there is no economic growth so demographic upheaval digital upheaval AI and digital upheaval Trumpian political upheaval where she is pushing through these tariffs and these very hard-nosed FTAs that he is negotiating with the world so 26 feels like a year where a lot of old certainties I think fall away but when you talk about all of this and this that is happening an average person living in this country your taxpayer your money where is the money?

1:52:48Where will it be? It's all about everything. That's for you. Yes, so, we discussed, right, income tax that the F.M. has given in the 2015 February of 2015. I think there is another need to be more need to be more I think small companies need to be more corporate tax because at the moment, we have a bizarre construct where even if your turnover is 1 crore, you pay 25 % corporate tax rate. If your turnover is 1000 crore, you have a 25 % corporate tax rate and it makes no sense at all, right? A small company can't possibly compete with a giant, right? And yet we are saying, so I think, so the, just call direct taxation, economics, direct taxation, corporate tax or income tax.

1:53:30Here, pressure comes from here, that the rehaid will be given, because the casualties are quite evident. The small company, the 1 crore below the profit is earning, and the middle class, which is earning 15, 20, 30 lakhs. Direct taxation, right, becomes I think increasingly challenged. Indirect taxation, meaning GST, will increasingly become the route through which we, which the government will have to tax, right. Now indirect taxation is harder to escape because indirect taxation effectively consumption taxed. Consumption taxed. And consumption increasingly of services, right, and services increasingly of online services will become I think the mainstay of taxation regimes the world over.

1:54:19So, again, coming back to whether it is software, whether it is the use and purchase of AI, whether it is online entertainment, that entire ecosystem will become very closely linked to the ability of the state to be able to tax its citizenry. Direct taxation increasingly will become tenuous. another way to think of this is the Indian elite is saying yeah we see pollution pollution traffic plus taxes why should I stay here I keep my business in India and I keep my whole home and I keep my whole Dubai shift or Singapore and I keep my wealth and I keep my home in Dubai as a result I keep my tax in India but I keep my personal wealth and income

1:55:16and I'll get a better quality of life as it is. That makes it very difficult for the government to tax income. And therefore, I think increasingly taxes will shift from taxing income to taxing consumption. Consumption in the digital area will increasingly be about purchases of digital online purchases. And there will have to get taxed far more heavily than it is today. but fiscal pressures will increase because again transition transition we are accustomed to taxing income increasingly it's becoming difficult to tax income in a world where wealth is very easy to shift across borders but I think next two three years the burden of taxation increasingly will shift away from taxing income profits to taxing consumption but in this thing then are you telling or trying to say that Thank you.

1:56:15ki only the if i have to make money and I, my money if I am making by either salary or profits or companies or whatever the way for me to invest and make outsized returns on that will will be largely dependent on US companies or so let's put it in even more simpler way so as we discussed right, the world is 4 % market cap India So it's obvious that the 4 % market cap of India is 4 % of the world and you have put your whole life in there. That's not a particularly clever idea. That's the remaining 96 % of the world. To give the authorities in Delhi credit and the authorities in give city credit, they've made it actually quite easy to invest globally.

1:57:11They've also made it low cost and they've actually made it reasonably tax efficient to invest globally. so over 26 a lot of Indians will say what am I doing why am I putting 100 % of my equity allocation to 4 % of the world when the government the authorities are making it easy for me to invest globally, cheap for me to invest globally, tax efficient for me to invest globally let me take at least a third ideally half of my wealth and go global with it now whether you buy American stocks or Swedish stocks or Canadian stocks or German stocks I think it's secondary mudda. Primary mudda will be open in the mind over the course of 26 years.

1:57:54What am I doing? Why am I putting 100 % of my wealth in 4 % of the global market? When I was visible in front of me all the things I was describing all the things that are happening in the world. It's not as if it's not happening in the world. It's happening in the world. But at least the rest of the world especially the western world then AI isn't as much of an adverse shock as I was describing. In fact, as I was describing, for many parts of the world AI is a blessing because it mitigates the need for having lots of young people. So, this basic thing I think will come to people's minds and I stress again all credit to the government, right?

1:58:32Long-term capital gains, tax global investing is the same as India in 2024, GIF City, LRS, another route called overseas portfolio investment you can now invest abroad very large sums of money for 950k LRS is 250k per pan per year right so for most people watching 250k per pan per year is more than adequate to move vast majority of their equity allocation to world and for those of us who run companies as per the overseas portfolio investment route you can invest your company globally through gift city so you can invest Aadhan Itford can take away from yourself in personal you can take away 2 ,2 crore 2 ,2 crore dollar every year can take away so 250 ,000 dollars every year so the government gave all the money long term capital gains tax no difference in India and there was a lot of liberalization behind so the government has done now it's incumbent on us to use our common sense and say that simple point that I have that simple point that if the world is 96 % market in India why don't I have money and then if I have something that I want to do it then how do I have and there will be a variety of people to inform that inform that answer including people like us so this point I think that will come to people and again I take it back to the crumbling of old narratives so when you say that this is a narrative then you throw all the money here what is the old narrative around investing in India So, the old narrative in any country, whether in America or India is that you put it in your country.

2:00:15So, it's called home country bias. America is very popular in America. American people have some 70-80 % of money in America. Now, at one level, it's so bad for them that 70 % of the world market is them only. Right? And they've also been the best performing market by far over the last 30 years. So, it's so bad for them. But even say countries like UK, most British people invest their money in UK only. So, it's called home country bias. and the home country bias comes from a world where you watch اپنے دیش کا TV channel you read اپنے دیش کاfamily آپ کی دنیا وہی پر سیمت ہے وہی کی growth اور آپ سارے commentators آپ کی دیش کے آخرے میں بول رہے ہیں اب وہ دنیا تو رہی نہیں اگر آپ کی شروعات کر رہے ہو دن Microsoft Office use کر کے اور پھر آپ کے دن میں 5 ویدیشی LLM آپ use کر رہے ہو ساری آپ کی electronics ویدیشی ہے right you can use the instruments all equipment and equipment you can use the equipment right so then you can use unless you are completely deluded right so you can say I'm a global Indian I'm living the global life right so I was flying in India I realized plane and everything is I think it's a big deal.

2:01:34I also saw the plane in the plane. I also saw the in-flight magazine. I think it's called Namaste. I saw that it's also made in Hungary.

2:01:45I saw the site that's doing Spotify. People are watching YouTube. The lady is watching Netflix. I thought I was doing it. I was watching Samsung and Vivo. I was panicked because I have my portfolio in India. Why am I over allocated to India? allocated to India given that in this flight I have seen the whole plane everything is foreign right so even if you wanted to live a Swadheshi life right by the way this is Fab India jacket even if you wanted to live a Swadheshi life it's very difficult to do things other than buying the odd Fab India garment or Khadi ka garment it's very tough and that point because narrative control people didn't understand it but the narrative control now disintegrates because nobody now just sits and watches Apne Desh ka channel and nobody just sits and reads Apne Desh ka akbar.

2:02:40In fact, hotel lobbies must have a akbar. Right? Most hotels give the akbar. Nobody touches the bloody thing I've seen. Right? Those different hotels give different akbar nobody touches the akbar and it's free. Right? Nobody touches it and that's when I realized the narrative control is disintegrating. Right? I still read a newspaper. I love reading the paper but I think I'm the last of the last of a fading generation and whoever stays in the three star four star business hotels I frequent nobody seems to read the paper even though it's available free of charge I feel like an oldie in my office because I read newsletter forget newspaper newspaper doesn't even listen to anyone newsletter also I am only last and we are we are consuming a print shint here this will be finished so So, all of this has pretty profound ramifications.

2:03:34The ability to control narratives, whether it's mainstream media narrative or some country's narrative is being lit. As it is being lit, new forms of influence are going to emerge. We started with Trump and Thiel and mimetic desire and in what kind. Increasingly, the narrative control will be around those deep underlying human desires. Rather than telling Raj ki, Raj, you invest in India. the narrative control will be around understanding Raj's psychology or Saurabh's psychology and understanding what psychological gratification is needed. So if we need scapegoat, we will develop for you. And that's how I will show my nature.

2:04:16That's how the Rene Girard philosophy, which the dhile has been able to do with the dhile and Girard has learned from the world. That's the world. They're running. They're saying the rest of the people who want to do they want to see football soccer we don't mind if they watch soccer rather than American football but we do mind how they who they perceive as the scapegoat and if you want to and it's very interesting right the leaders are what these guys are saying we are willing to let go of some aspects of narrative control such as what sport will you see the public because we realize the core aspects of control are around your deepest psychological desires.

2:05:02So what's the desire of an American who wants to be an Indian skateboard? So two parts. Remember, if you believe the Girard School of Thought, we are all aspiring for the same things. You are American or Indian or Chinese. You are getting all the things in your life. No, you have to pay a big car, a big life, a status. Okay, so So, you're dying to die. Right? And what Girard is saying is, the leader emerges by saying, it's not your fault, it's not your fault. It's the fault of that scapegoat over there. So, the Jews in Bethlehem or in Israel 2000 years ago, they simply had to say, Jesus is the scapegoat.

2:05:54Right? When a company's stock price falls, the new CEO has to say, put it away from the old CEO, take it away.

2:06:06So, who will you make the scapegoat? Will you make the scapegoat somebody really powerful? Or will you make the scapegoat somebody who is very visible, but actually powerless? So, that's where, as I said, that's where my reading of the situation is. They have doubled down on the Indian community. And I think this was done a few months after Trump's victory. Because Trump initially, when he won, I think a year ago, Jan 25, when you and I did the podcast, at that time, it was not so apparent that he will have to be back. Which is why when I said on your pod in Jan 25 that he will have to be back, a lot of people said to me, I'm not going to be back.

2:06:45Right? So, somewhere around Feb, March last year, their think tank must have come up with this whole funda that someone has to learn on the ongoing basis to win popularity with our right wing supporters. These people are solid because they are prosperous, visible and in minority. So, they go back to them. They go back to H1B, they go back to H1B, they go back to H1B, and then at a country level, they go back to their tariff. And my reading is, they take a measure, then they calibrate that how they're sitting in vote bank. If the World Bank is liking it, then they increase the positioning. And from what I can make out, it's worked out well.

2:07:31So, CNN is a reasonably liberal outlet. There are big articles that are open season on American Indians. Interesting. So, narrative control is broken. The leader shifts the narrative. And that's how, I guess, politics works the world over. Okay. Our last question, which is around, I was reading a tweet. like few days ago Elon Musk tweeted I don't know if you saw that he said double digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months if applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth which it should be triple digit is possible in 5 years he's talking about American economy double digit growth is now 12 to 18 months in economy and this was before Caleb Hammer has tweeted that 4.3 % year on year GDP growth in Q3 is kind of crazy.

2:08:29I didn't see that coming. There is a very famous investor, which is Mark Anderson. You must be knowing about him. So he tweeted that it's time to grow and it's time to grow. And then Elon tweeted this that double-digit growth is coming. So like large-sized investors and people like Anderson, Elon, they're all openly predicting and saying this. Do you think there is some rationality behind it? So, think from where they are sitting, from there where they are sitting, they can obviously see that their companies will increasingly use AI to make shit tons of money, right? With very few people, they'll make lots of money because as we discussed, right, you have to have a lot of people's need to go home, right?

2:09:12When I would say, TCS, 6 ,000 ,000, and Accenture, 3 ,000 ,000, 4 ,000 ,000, Microsoft, 2 ,000 ,000 employees, open AI 2000 and deep seek 200 so if you think about it AI centric companies will obviously make crazy amounts of money and from where they are sitting I suspect that's the perspective they are seeing the perspective that I am seeing and the perspective that I struggle is you can see the supply side that AI will bring all the efficiencies but if If the person doesn't have any other side, how will he eat? Right? And this then begs the question that if AI creates massive winners, these mega companies, right, the Microsofts and Alphabets, AI creates these incredibly powerful companies whose market cap is bigger than India's GDP.

2:10:15and then it creates these tens of thousands of job losses in a country like ours.

2:10:22Where does the consumption come from? Now, if the wealth creation and job losses were in the same country, then it's easy. The government simply has to tax the, if the wealth creation was in America and the job losses were in America, it's easier. American company, the government has to simply tax the winners and pass it down to the welfare. But if there are winners in the United States, and losers what will you do in India and I think that's the big question I don't have the answer for and I think that's the piece that the American government has figured out that these people are receiving and therefore hence the trouble we are having in closing out the FDA because they are realizing that we don't know and the Chinese are also I think figured that out and we don't know and I don't have a solution as I was saying my hope is 3 to 4 years hence as AI substitution effect and complementarity effects we will be able to create 100 million jobs we as a country we will be able to create 100 million jobs doing the grant work around the day to day implementation of LLMs for various for millions of use cases I think that will come India but from there se vahan tak ik safar hai do-teen saal ka and it's gonna be a it feels like a tricky safar.

2:11:44Brutal. Brutal because purane certainties the purana narratives the purana realities come under pressure before the new job creation and the new opportunities emerge right and that's why I feel 26 is the year where we leave the old behind and we move towards the new and you know I think the rest of our lives are gonna be like this as you leave behind the construct of big companies and certainties and set political order and set technological realities right aap ki zindegi me a flux will comes the new normal in that context diversifying globally diversifying globally diversifying across asset classes I think becomes a new norm becomes a new norm becomes necessity rather than saying I will give all the money in a single market and then I will do a lot of practice that God is the market but even when you look at the global market this every time a revolution when it comes to skewed economics where the 4-5 large companies conglomerates which are the revolution they benefit and all trickle down so for example when we saw the banking world happen something was that Rockefellers and Rothschild of the world was born and they had then the fords of the world happened and the tech giants of the world now the AI is going to do the same thing that the rest of the companies are like top, mid, lower level, they won't get all of them.

2:13:14Only the top will get 4-5 so then does that investment strategy also become that just large cap to put in large companies. So the world you painted right, there are two versions. One version is Ford and General Electric. So America 100 years ago. okay so there were winners and there were losers so therefore there was one country and therefore the natural solution which America implemented through between 1930 and 1950 was the creation of a welfare state right Great Depression and Second World War America said there are so many winners but there are so many winners so you can tax them and make a welfare state and that's how they created I think a great society I didn't say anything so welfare state and unemployment benefit these are and so on and so forth.

2:14:04So that's a happy case study. Same country can the winners, same country can the losers shift the money. The difficult case study is Britain's industrial revolution. Because there the winners were over there. British large companies and the losers were in the colonial world. They created large companies there. That all the land was and destroyed our industries by the colonial power and Britain rich and India and wealth transfer that is a deadly case study because it suggests that the people who have the technological might their might was modern weaponry and modern political systems and they used that to colonize Africa and Asia and they created gigantic companies in the West, in the UK which sold their stuff in the colonial world and that's how the world existed between say 1750 to 1950.

2:15:06Right? If if if if we're not going to see a replication of that. Right? And my fear is that technology is so unequal power that we might see a replication of that. Right? That effectively get a technological colonialism. All IP in America has all hardware all software IP all hardware IP has them. to them. We are sitting here and we are using it. We have either hardware or software or biotech or EV or EV. You have got zero IP now, which is of relevance in the third industrial revolution. So what can we do? We become users of their technology. We have to pay them for it. And because they are monopoly suppliers of tech to us, they can't leave us.

2:15:55In a way, they can't leave China. Because China, barring NVIDIA's GPU, and a bunch of other things, China is reasonably comparative. You could argue they're the best in the world now. Rare Earths give the Chinese very powerful bargaining power. We don't have that chance in today's date. Right? And that's the imbalance of power which is worrying me. i'm hoping that the fact that we have a large educated tech literate population we have low-cost broadband we have a young population allows us to become the back office of this whole tech world do i invest today my money until that happens do i invest my money in large companies who are going to be at the benefit receiving end of this ai revolution and technology We are investing the bulk of our money in small and mid caps in the western world.

2:16:53But why small and mid cap, if only top companies are going to win? No, so remember a small cap company can also dominate the world. So for example, 95 % airline seed belts is made by Transdime. Transdime is listed in NYSE. 20 billion dollar market cap is a small cap. 20 billion dollar. 20 billion dollar is a small cap in the US. But seed belt is 95 % market share. or rupiah 15 % dollar EPS gore hoot aati hai 15 PE pe hai is liya hum khariit ke baith hai right to is prakare ke trans dime jaysse small and mid caps aapko 15-16 PE pe USA me Canada me Sweden me Germany me France me Holland me mil jayenge to is prakare ke industrial and tech leaders right joh manu 5-40 billion dollar ke biech mein hai 15-20 times PE me trade kar raha hai 15-20 % earning growth is that they are using their efficiencies to improve and improve leadership already global leadership is going to companies because we are saying we don't know which LLM will dominate right it seems the world has a few too many LLMs one of them two of them will probably win the game but even those two might not choose to make a lot of money they might choose to use the LLM to propagate their product and their superiority but the companies who use the LLMs constructively, companies who use AI to build comparative advantage they could potentially be the big winners of this era.

2:18:28So courtesy of the freedoms, courtesy of the liberalization which has been granted to people like us through Gift City, in Western world they are taking small and mid caps which can be able to gain the benefit of this age of upheaval. We also have large companies like Bakshar Healthway, which is 500 billion dollar which they will deploy hopefully sensibly to make money right Warren Buffett has worked so many years and Charlie Mangar has worked they are now out of the picture hopefully the next gen of Bakshan Hathway will 500 billion dollar right and then we have some of the the staple kind of the colossal giants of our era Microsoft Amazon who dominate our era because they provide the basic utilities tech utilities which underpin even this podcast that you and I are doing so India in large companies because Indian market there are no interest in that industry companies in India they will have a reasonably decent run I also suffer from country bias I live here so I have put my half of money here but the rest of the half of money over the last 4 years I have put in the western world trying to understand and make sense of the of this upheaval that we are living through interesting okay I have to ask you sorry one last thing almost okay and the thing is what's happening in gold and silver my audience would have killed me if I had not asked you okay so let's give the first textbook answer controversial answer so so finance you can learn that you diversify in low correlation assets so India and USA say the two stock markets low correlation hai, downo market decent sa return deeti hai, toh zahir hai ind mein diversify karna logical hai, right gold and India also have low correlation gold and America also have low correlation right, America roughly roughly 14-15 % dollar deeta hai long term mein, India 10 % dollar deeta hai long term mein, maa Indian equities ki baat kar raha ho and gold kareeban 8 % dollar deeta hai long term mein, right, so 15 America 10 India, 8 gold they have low correlations in an ideal world have one third in each of the assets you end up around the 14-15 % mark right one third in each asset keep rebalancing now there's two ways to diversify you diversify from a sasta asset to an expensive asset right doesn't sound very clever but that's one thing you could do you could buy you can sell a cheap asset and buy a really expensive asset right the other way to diversify it is to sell an expensive asset and buy a cheap asset.

2:21:17That's the logic we followed when we diversified out of Indian smith caps into American and European smith caps. It was a good thing. The bank was here. You buy it. But on that logic, gold is not a clever idea. I think I should wait before we buy gold. so I would love to have gold and silver as the two precious metals collectively perhaps platinum as well I would love to have precious metals as one third of my portfolio but at these valuations I'm not sure this is a good idea so I'm waiting on my own money and I'm waiting for India and American equities that I'm waiting for when I'm not going to be precious metals I don't know so if you can host a precious metals expert on the podcast I would love to listen what is a controversial take?

2:22:06what is the answer? The controversial take is that wait for fear to abate. At the moment, fear is going on the whole story. Why is silver rallying? Insane. So in a way, if you think about what we've discussed over the last three hours, if we're sitting here and drinking tea, we're going to understand that this is so big and big. So people who are running Central Bank in the world, who are running every country's jamaapunji country official jamaapunji invest they are understanding that there is a big big and therefore they are taking sovereign wealth several countries are taking country wealth and they are buying gold with that and that is jacking up gold price if they know the most profound truths then gold should be sold and gold should be bought but I think those people are also perhaps overreacting to the whole tariff drama which played out through 25.

2:23:11Barring India and Brazil. Right? Brazil came back because they have jailed his friend Jair Bolsonaro. He came back because of the which I have given you a theory of mimetic. Barring these two countries, the other people and Trump have not been so much tariff. So the tariff issue I think gradually is fading. The US Fed is cutting. earnings growth America as a whole is running at 11-12 our portfolio is 18-19 dollar India is running 2-3 percent dollar long term 5-5-2-3 date on today's date so West is already earnings growth is a big deal Fed will now cut out so earnings growth is a big deal and tariff is behind us barring Brazil and India so fear trade which is a big central banks has bought gold.

2:24:05Perhaps the worst of the fear trade which has ramped gold up is behind us. And if that's the case, hopefully gold comes down. And that's why I'm saying it's controversial because in today's date it's going to be a fear trade. So I'm waiting for gold to come down at which point I will put one third of my wealth in precious metals of various sorts. So I'm still going to 50-50. Our Marcellus is an asset allocation portfolio is 10-15 % already. Multi-asset portfolio is called. There are bonds, Indian equities, REITs. There are 10-15 % precious metals. But in Saurabh Mukherjee's personal portfolio there is not gold.

2:24:48Interesting. Thank you so much. My pleasure. Thank you for hosting. Thank you.

2:24:58Book sales sales 2025 for book sales is close to the highest year ever highest year ever is covid 2020 for obvious reasons no, but 25 was just narrowly behind 2020. So, people are very stunned that people thought that the attention span is shrinking, people will not read the we will not watch long video, we will not listen to the podcast. But it's like, while there is an abadi which is watching less and less, there is also an abadi which is reading and listening and watching. Absolutely. More and more. So, there is polarization. The person in the background is getting a mess. But this polarization is most unexpected.

2:25:43And it will be a big effect on mainstream media. Thank you so much for watching this episode until the end. Now, you have to do three things. Number one, abhi ke abhi is channel ko subscribe ko kyunki jitna ap subscribe kareenge, utnehi valuable or better guest hum aap ke liye la payenge. Number two, abhi comments me mujhe batao ki is episode se aap ko kya seekhne ko mila, aur agla aisa koun sa guest he, joh aap chate ho, jin ko hum idher bulaen and unse hum insightful baathe karene taaki aap ek bhetter insaan ban saake. And number three, yhe episode kisie ek insaan ke saath zaroor shayar karna, kyunki ek conversation enough hoti he kisiki puri life change karne ke liye.

2:26:19I'll see you next time. Until then, keep figuring out.