Israeli Election Remains Deadlocked—What Happens Next?

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1:03Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is David Dowd. He's a senior fellow at the FDD. David, thanks so much for coming back on.

1:13David Daoud: Always a pleasure, Brittany. I want to talk about what we know and what we don't know yet about the Israeli elections that took place earlier this week. Right now, as you and I sit here, there is no clear winner in Israel's first election since October 7th. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc is ahead of the opposition coalition led by Gadi Eisencoat, but neither has secured enough seats for a majority in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. So to start off the conversation, what do you make and what are your thoughts on what is known so far about the results? Well, it looks like another deadlock, at least for now.

1:49David Daoud: There were expectations that Gusha Shinoy, the change bloc as it was being called, the anti-Netanyahu bloc, would at least have somewhere in the 60s without the major Arab parties. perhaps with Ram, this conservative Muslim group that's headed by Mansour Abbas, that's more for integration into Israel as a Jewish state than, you know, the joint list, this collection of three Arab parties that categorically reject Zionism, reject army service, right, reject the identity of the state. And those results did not pan out. But it does not seem like there is, I mean, first of all, let's be clear, the final results are not out yet.

2:31David Daoud: There's still the absentee ballots that have to be counted, that'll all be counted on November 4th. What is clear, though, what is becoming more clear, though, is at least one stance from the Eisenkot-led opposition bloc, because there was talk as, you know, the polls started to show a closer result, as the exit polls started to show a much, you know, more of a toss-up than was expected by the previous polls, that perhaps an Eisenkot-led government could rely, could be a minority government. And it's something perhaps a lot of the viewers don't understand, that you need 61, technically speaking, to form a government, but that 61 can technically come from outside of the coalition, right?

3:18David Daoud: So you can have parties that don't formally join the coalition, but that can support or at least abstain against its formation. And that could lead at least to an Eisenkot government being formed with the major Zionist parties in the opposition. The problem is such a move has been opposed by not just several of Eisenkot's technical coalition partners. So Yair Golan is saying, heads the Democrats, this is kind of the center-left party, the kind of the more left, the most left of this coalition saying we should have an alliance with the Arabs. The coalition should include the Arab parties. Lieberman, who heads the Israel Baitenu party, Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett, who heads the Biachag party, the Together party, which is the center-right, center-left party between him and Yair Lapid, categorically rejected this, right?

4:19David Daoud: Their main thing now is that the ultra-Orthodox need to serve universally. Now, how does this impact the Arab parties? Because they're saying the only parties we should enter with in a coalition should be those that are for universal service, that identify with the state's Jewish identity. Now, this is something that the ultra-Orthodox parties reject, but it's also something that the Arab parties reject. So you can't accept it from the ultra-Orthodox and then not accept it from the Arab parties. And then there are members also of Gadie Eisenkot's own list, his own party. I think Channel 12 was saying, at least four of them are saying, we can't rely on an outside coalition.

4:54David Daoud: Well, you could say, or sorry, these parties outside of the coalition, the Arab parties, say, be pragmatic, right? If you want to get Netanyahu out and this former government, not go to endless cycles of elections, be pragmatic. The problem is, even if you get a coalition in, right, in order to pass laws that could affect such things as universal draft, as universal involvement in Israeli society, because it's not just the military draft, it's not just the ultra-Orthodox refusing to serve in the military, which is causing a shortage in the IDF, which is putting more of a strain on the reservists from other sectors, which in turn puts a strain on the economy, and they don't work, so they're obviously not contributing to the economy, and they take a lot of welfare, so they're taking away from the economy.

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6:38David Daoud: So these are not things that can be overlooked any longer. This is one of the largest segments of the Israeli population. They're continuing to grow. But in order to have laws passed on that, or maybe even change basic laws, these are Israel's quasi-constitutional laws, you need a majority of 61. So you're going to have to rely on those outside of the coalition who are opposed to this to get to that 61. And so those laws won't pass. So you'll form a government. It'll change things in form. But in terms of the substance, the critical planks on which the opposition is running, including Gary Eisenkot's party, universal service, changing the education system and the ultra-Orthodox system to include civics, democracy, Zionism, the economy, having the equality of burden, as they call it, where the equality of service, the burden of contributing to the economy is distributed equally.

7:35David Daoud: none of these laws would be able to pass because the Arab parties, whether they're in the coalition or outside of the coalition, would not support this. So it becomes a government that changes in form but not in substance. And it complicates forming a government right now even with these parties. So even though there's technically a majority that is against Netanyahu, the Gadi Eisenkot bloc, let's call it the Zionist opposition bloc that's headed by Gadi Eisenkot, including the other parties plus the Arab parties, I think, gets all to 68 total, 67, 68, according to current. So that's technically a majority, but these parties can't really sit together in a government and pass the critical laws that the Zionist majority, the opposition majority, wants to pass.

8:20David Daoud: The very purpose of them running, especially in light of October 7th. We'll dive a little deeper into what happens next, but I want to talk about the moment Israel finds itself in now because there was a large turnout for these elections. Reportedly, over 75 % of eligible voters turned out. That's the highest turnout rate since 1999. And since the last election, there's been the war in Gaza. There's been the war against Iran. And Netanyahu, he suffered a setback here, but he hasn't been defeated. What do you make of the fact that some polls suggested this election was going to be a larger referendum on Netanyahu than it actually was?

9:04David Daoud: Well, I guess they were wrong. I mean, look, Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost a significant part of his ability to govern. There has been a referendum on Netanyahu. Even the parties upon which his rule was based have shrunk in power. The ultra-Orthodox parties, even the Shas party, has lost four seats. They're down from 11 seats to 7 seats. That might sound insignificant, but it's a major shift to the point where the Shas party canceled its celebration last night, its election celebration for the first time ever. So there has been a degree of rejection. The thing is, here's the thing. Most Israelis agree on the security issues.

9:47David Daoud: Even if you go to someone like Yair Golan, who is on the left flank of the Zionist spectrum in Israel, even someone like him will agree that Iran is a threat, will agree that Hamas is a threat, will agree that Hezbollah is a threat. Naftali Bennett, obviously, who is to the right of Netanyahu in many ways, right? This is the guy who, when he was prime minister, had a policy of responding with airstrikes to incendiary balloons that were sent from Gaza into Israel because they too were a threat, right? You send balloons over that contain this incendiary material that can burn fields, that can burn houses.

10:19David Daoud: He's anti-two-state solution. But even he has a different approach to how to deal with Hamas. He's for dismantling Hamas. He's saying that the war cannot end with Hamas remaining armed, but the methods he would use would differ. So in terms of the referendum, I think Netanyahu has also had since October 7th a lot of significant tactical, I would call them, victories when it comes to the various fronts that Israel is confronting. And a lot of scare tactics used in the elections that if you elect this other side, that, you know, the issues that we all agree with as Israelis, right? The message that Netanyahu is sending to the Israeli public.

11:01Hey, we all agree that Iran is a threat. We all agree that Hezbollah is a threat. We all agree that Hamas is a threat. We all agree these issues are a threat. I'm the only one that can deal with them. Look at the track record I've had after October 7th. Look at the track record I've had from before that. Do you really want to go into the unknown

11:16David Daoud: with these other figures at this critical juncture? So it's not so much, I would say, I mean, there are very likely many people who agree with Netanyahu. There are also people who are to the far right of Netanyahu who voted for Ismail Yehudit and Smotrich and others who want to pull Netanyahu more to the right. And there are the ultra-Orthodox parties that are agnostic on the state. I mean, you had one of their major rabbis, Rabbi Javlando, recently say that Zionism was a curse, that it would have been better for the Jewish community in the land of Israel to be living under Arab control, things of that nature, that the state should not have come into existence.

11:51David Daoud: It isn't part of Netanyahu's coalition. But on Netanyahu, I think most people are voting with the person they know rather than the people that they don't know. Given that, there is this broad consensus on what the threats are. And the difference is how to deal with the threats. When you look at American elections time and time again, the economy's the top issue. It's the economy stupid. When you look at Israeli elections, and especially this one, is security the top issue there? Actually, it was cost of living this time. cost of living, which is tied into the ultra-Orthodox issue. I think that came in second, if I'm not mistaken, in some of the pollings that I've seen.

12:36David Daoud: But cost of living, look, Israel is one of the most expensive places to live on Earth. Tel Aviv, I think the economist in 2017, if I'm not mistaken, ranked it as the most expensive city to live in, period. And the problem is, you know, I remember talking to an Israeli taxi driver about, Israeli infrastructure is great. You look at the highways, roads, what have you. I was on the way to the airport and I remember commenting, this is someone who would have been part of the voting block that would vote for Likud, right? Blue collar, Sephardic, traditional. So, you know, you guys have amazing infrastructure here.

13:11David Daoud: He's like, you know, your tax dollars are going somewhere. And he said something poignant, right? This is something most Israelis feel like, well, my tax dollars go to this, but they also go to subsidize a growing segment of this country that doesn't contribute anything, which contributes to the cost of living. Because at the end of the day, if you have to subsidize 1.5 million people who are not contributing to the economy, who are the fastest growing segment, single demographic in Israeli society, according to most polling, come 2030, right? Israel has four school systems, right? You have the national, kind of the mainstream secular school system.

13:46David Daoud: You have the religious Zionist school system. You have the ultra-Orthodox. You have the Arab school system. This is kind of Israel's way of keeping the balance that each sector gets to, you know, live its own life and teach its children and their values that it wants. So there are four sectors. By 2030, the first grade class of the ultra-Orthodox are going to be fully 50 % out of those four sectors. And again, they're not taught civics. They're not taught math. They're not taught Zionism. They're not taught the values of the state. And they're not taught the tools to actually become productive members of the economy.

14:16David Daoud: and they're discouraged by the rabbinic leadership from joining the IDF, right? So you have a drain on the economy. You have subsidization of their way of life, which when the Israeli taxpayer goes to pay their taxes, when the Israeli taxpayer goes to the value-added tax or goes shopping, all of that is taken out of their pocket. That adds to the strain of an already expensive country to live in because you're subsidizing a whole sector of the economy. So the ultra-Orthodox issue cannot be disconnected from the economy, which is the cost of living, which is tied to the economy, which is also tied to security because you have a massive shortage in the IDF.

14:55David Daoud: And this also ties to the cost of living in the economy. You have a 20 ,000-soldier shortage in the IDF. You have reserve duty that goes on much longer than it should. And the people that are pulled into reserve duty could be the head of intel in Israel. They could be anyone. They could be anyone from any walk of life. And how much, so there's a loss in how much Israel spends to keep them in reserve duty. And there's a loss in the economic benefit, right? When that head of Intel is taken away from his job, or when that lawyer is taken away from their job, or when that head of a high-tech company is taken away from their job, not just say for 30 days, but for 100 days and more, that's an economic loss, right?

15:34David Daoud: And all of that is being done also because, and that has an impact, obviously, on the cost of living. And all of that is because, you know, the other side of the country is not serving. You have 120 ,000 eligible ultra-Orthodox young men and a 20 ,000-person gap in the IDF, and they're not filling it. So all of this is tied together, and it all translates into Israel becoming a place where the average Israeli is struggling to meet ends meet. Because, again, there's a subsidization of a segment of society that's not meeting as part of the burden. You mentioned this earlier in the conversation, but Arab-led parties, they notched a historic milestone here.

16:17They're reportedly projected to win 19 seats. And Netanyahu, he flat out rejected working with Arab-led parties. He said partnering with them would endanger Israel. And Eisencoat, he's not flat out rejected that. He's left the door open with some conditions on that. Will that be the key to who holds the majority? How important are these 19 projected seats? Well, not only they went in a historic number of seats, actually. So the Arab community in Israel has historically had the lowest turnout out of any evolving communities in Israel.

16:50David Daoud: If you look at the ultra-Orthodox, religious Zionists, the mainstream Israelis, if you count Druids and Bedouins as separate. And now they had 80 % turnout compared to, I think, the average for the national average was 77. So they went from the lowest to the highest voting group in Israel. And a lot of that was because of the alliances that Prime Minister Netanyahu has done with his government. One of his major ministers, national security minister, Itzamar Ben-Kviger, is hostile to the Arab community. And not only that, I mean, the Arab community has been suffering from crime, high numbers of crime for years now, for decades.

17:28Arab on Arab crime, if you will. and the previous government led by Naftali Bennett and Nair Lapid tried to deal with this, but it obviously did not have the longevity. It lasted about a year and a half before it fell apart under pressure from Netanyahu. And I think one of the unaddressed elements of this is it's a national security concern for Israel. Arab crime families have connections to crime families in places like Lebanon, and those crime families have links to Hezbollah, which can use that connection to gather intelligence on what's going on in Israel, to pass money onto hostile elements within Israel.

18:05So it's a national security concern in addition to being a security... Rarely does a day pass when you don't hear reports of Arab Israelis being killed in gang violence. And Itzamar Bagnivir has not done what is necessary to clamp down on this, despite the fact that this was the mandate that he was given to clamp down on crime. So a lot of these parties went and voted, you know, this led to this huge Arab turnout. And Prime Minister Netanyahu, yeah, he said this, but there have also been reports that he's reached out to Mansour Abbas, right? Kind of from the more pragmatic Ram party that is willing, right?

18:42Its platform is based on, unlike the joint list, its platform is based on integration of Arab Israelis into Israeli society as a Jewish state. Now, at the same time, Mansour Abbas has made controversial statements. has refused to condemn Hamas as a terrorist organization when asked flat out on several occasions. This has rankled a lot of Jewish Israelis, rightly so. But this also, you know, this doesn't make it easier for Gadi Aizenkot to digest him either, right? Because again, we talked about earlier the critical issues that the opposition ran on. Now, Rahm, just like the Joint List, but for different reasons, slightly different reasons, right?

19:19The Joint List is comprised of three parties that are anti-Zionist in nature. So unlike Ram, they don't recognize Israel's legitimacy to be a Jewish state. They view the IDF as an organization, as an institution in hostile terms, and they want it weakened, right? So for practical reasons, they don't want the ultra-Orthodox to be conscripted into the IDF because that would strengthen the IDF. The other part, and this is where Ram and the Joint West probably agree, universal service might come to the Arab doorstep at a certain point, right?

19:50David Daoud: If you say, well, everyone has to serve, including the ultra-Orthodox, the ultra-Orthodox lose their exemption from service. Well, then the Arabs are left out and not serving. And then there could be growing pressure for conscription and mandatory service in the Arab sector. And this is something they both oppose. Again, Ram for more pragmatic reasons, because it feels that the Arab community is not there yet. But again, this makes it a non-starter for Gadi Eisenkot, because how are you able to sit with the government? to not only sit with the government. I mean, you think of practical security matters.

20:24A Gadi Eisenkot government is going to have to come into power that will still have to and still believe, again, from Gadi Eisenkot all the way leftward to Irgolan, you have to confront Hezbollah, you have to confront Iran, you have to confront Hamas. Again, they may differ tactically among themselves and from Netanyahu on how to do these things, but the concept of confrontation with these elements remains. The joint list doesn't agree. and you're going to need partners. You're going to sometimes need, in terms of passing the budget, budget for security, that's going to have to rely on more than the Zionist opposition bloc.

20:59It's going to have to rely on the Arab parties. And will they oppose devoting more money to the IDF? Will they oppose strengthening the IDF through more conscription?

21:12David Daoud: Will they oppose certain, if you include them in the government, which is even more problematic, Will they sit out on votes that are critical to Israel's security concerns? Or even if they're not in the government, but the government depends on them, will they either support or initiate a vote of no confidence in the government if the government has to go pursue, say, expanded military operations in Lebanon or an operation in Iran? So it's not something that you can depend on with parties that have a fundamentally different view of what Israel should be. I mean, in some cases, whether Israel should exist, right?

21:51In terms of the Balad party, it's unclear. They're an Arab nationalist, Palestinian nationalist party. So whether Israel should exist at all, but even there, put that question aside,

21:58David Daoud: that also have a fundamentally different view of how Israel should deal with security concerns and whether Israel's security concerns are legitimate, right? And again, this is not to say that, you know, Naftali Bennett has said this repeatedly. The issue isn't that they're Arab. You know, the issue is that these fundamentally different concerns, this fundamentally different worldview, makes a government that has a lot to deal with. You know, Naftali Bennett, for example, who's coming in second largest party in the opposition block behind Gaddi Eisenkot, has talked about, Israel lacks a constitution, right?

22:33And the time that the bucket has been kicked down the road since the Constituent Assembly that was first convened in 1949, that was supposed to draft the constitution, ultra-orthodox service, dealing with the economy, dealing with price of living. There are certain things that can no longer be kicked down the road. So a lot of these issues, you have a fundamentally different view with these other parties on how to deal with them. And that's the real issue. So I don't see how a government, a Gadi Eisenkot government that is anchored by parties with a fundamentally different worldview, with a fundamentally different view of the state and its legitimacy, and these critical issues, passing a constitution, ultra-Orthodox service, how that could even be viable in the long run.

23:21And you could see the Netanyahu government, or the Netanyahu-led opposition, perhaps, or the Netanyahu block in the opposition, however it ends up. Obviously, Netanyahu has not given up his ambitions to return to the premiership. Otherwise, he would have left political life. it would make it very easy for the government, sorry, for the opposition to tank the government, right? Especially if the government is unable to make decisions on these critical issues, right? If a war with Iran is necessary and you don't have the votes necessary and the funding necessary, the budget necessary to confront that, I could see a Netanyahu opposition or a Netanyahu bloc in the opposition joining the Arab opposition, which would sit in the opposition, and voting in favor of a vote of no confidence in the government or opposing these measures just to make sure that the government cannot proceed with its day-to-day work, which it did, by the way.

24:18This is not me making this up. This is precisely how the Netanyahu-led opposition functioned during the Lapid Bennett government. Even in areas where there would have been agreements between Likud and Bennett Lapid, the Netanyahu-led opposition played hardball because they wanted to tank the government and return to power. They wanted to force elections. So it makes a Gadi Aysen-Kod-led government non-viable if it has to rely on, again, if he's polling, if I'm recalling the number correctly, I think it's 48 seats, 12, 13 seats right now, 13 seats to get to the 61. That's a sizable number. That's a sizable number.

25:00That's a big chunk. There's a lot of questions that hang in the balance here. Right now, they're deadlocked. But what does this all mean then for the war against Iran, do you think? Well, the Netanyahu government, or at least Netanyahu as a prime minister, will be in a caretaker role for, I mean, there's going to be seven days of a cooling off period right after the election. So we have November 4th is the actual, those are the actual results. then there's consultations and then whomever is tapped by the president uh has uh i think it's

25:34David Daoud: 28 days uh you know there's gonna be president will tap someone to form a coalition they'll have 28 days to form the coalition 14 days uh if the president allows an extension if they can't then you'll have again the inverse another person will be tapped if the president chooses someone else to try to form a coalition so you could have a few months now uh where the government you know, what do they call it, the horse trading of Israeli politics functions. And in that time, obviously, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be a caretaker. The government will be in a caretaker function. Its duties and prerogatives will be shrunken, but they can still respond to security measures.

26:13They can still respond to, you know, certain threats. So you could have a process while, you know, the government is being formed of, you know, renewal of hostilities with Iran. I think a lot will obviously not just depend on Jerusalem. We've seen reports, obviously, of Prime Minister Netanyahu trying to, allegedly, according to these reports, restart fighting with Iran and convince President Trump of restarting the fighting. There was also that incident that happened a couple of weeks ago of Israeli jets getting near the border with Iran and returning, which was meant to be, the way it was framed by the Israeli government was that it was a deterrent to Iran, meaning don't test us right now during election season.

26:53and perhaps, perhaps not. But what we've seen is that President Trump has said not until after the midterms. So anything that would happen would have to await after the U.S. midterms because President Trump also realizes that his numbers here in the United States, the Republican numbers in the midterms, are going to depend largely on U.S. voter-based dissatisfaction with the war in Iran and its impact onto their day-to-day lives. So my assessment, again, anything can happen. My assessment is if something is going to happen, it might not happen until after the U.S. midterms. But Prime Minister Netanyahu will remain as the caretaker prime minister until all of this coalition building exercise is over.

27:42and if the coalition building exercise fails and they go to second round of elections, which if you ask me, again, I don't like to be profit, but I think that's the most likely scenario. It'll probably be another couple months after that, during which Prime Minister Netanyahu and his current coalition will remain in that caretaker position and be able to take certain positions. So it's a long way out from the end of this process and during this process. Again, it's not that Eisenkot thinks that Iran shouldn't be confronted.

28:15David Daoud: I think either he or Naftali Bennett, I mean, I followed Naftali Bennett a lot closer than I have Eisenkot. I'll tip my hand here. I'm a little bit partial to him in the Israeli political, you know, makeup. His positions seem like the old guard of Likud, right? The old, you know, nationalist liberal party, kind of that combination of having strong emphasis on the state's identity, but also maintaining respect for civil rights and kind of the liberal ethos that Jabotinsky's revisionist Zionism brought in. But he's even different on how Israel should pursue the fight with Iran, given that it's putting strain on Israel's relations with the United States and with U.S.

29:04voter base and with younger Americans. So I think the opposition seems to be a lot more cognizant of long-term impact, not differing that the Iranian regime needs to be confronted, not differing that this is an existential threat, not differing that even that they would be serving U.S. interests in some way, because Iran has made us, the United States, its primary enemy. That's them saying that. That's their proxy saying that. But how they would go about it might differ versus the Netanyahu government. For the time being, Netanyahu's approach seems to be the one that's going to dominate and the one that's going to, if not have President Trump's ear, at least be speaking into President Trump's ear.

29:44This holiday, all plans, even unlimited, are just$15 a month. A holiday deal this good obviously deserves an enormously expensive holiday song, like all I want. Right. Okay, we can't afford that. You know what? Forget the music budget. We're going to stick with whatever's in the public domain. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. I know you said you don't want to predict too much into the future, so I won't ask you to pull out your crystal ball.

30:19I'm curious what you think's next, but I also want to get your take on Netanyahu's party now claiming that there was widespread election fraud here. They're saying that the Israeli elections, quote, were stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism and the elimination of the Jewish state through serious criminal offenses of bribery, threats, violence, forgeries, and the use of prohibited software to mobilize voters. And an official from Israel's Central Elections Committee reportedly rejected those allegations of widespread fraud in an interview. What do you make of that and what are you looking out for next?

30:54Well, I mean, let's start with the easier question, right? it was their fraud. Look, Prime Minister Netanyahu's campaign has been, if I may, you know, not to sound too political, just assessing this flat out, has based itself this time around on a lot of fear mongering, right? There was the slogan that became dominant, Yaminu Falastin, right? It's either the right or Palestine, and it rhymes better in Hebrew, right? I think in the days leading up to the election, there was the image of the AI image of Tel Aviv blowing up in, you know, a nuclear attack, even though, right, I think Prime Minister Netanyahu a few months ago said that Iran is no longer capable of doing such a thing.

31:37So there has been a lot of tactics that have been aimed at, you know, I guess, a more populist direction. I would say this is coming from a place of frustration. Look, the Netanyahu government, look, Netanyahu did come out, the that he leads did come out with the largest number of seats of any party, but it did lose a lot of seats from the previous elections, and he's unable to form a government. And I think this is coming from frustration. I do agree with the Central Election Committee. Look, is there voter fraud? There's voter fraud in every election, right? But we would be in the United States or Israel or any other democracy, right?

32:13No, no system is airtight. The question is whether the safeguards are in place to ensure that voter fraud does not tip the elections. in a way that is substantial. I don't think that happened in Israel. I don't think it's possible in Israel. Maybe I have a little bit more trust in the safeguards of Israeli democracy than does Prime Minister Netanyahu himself, which would prevent a degree of voter fraud that is so significant that would tip such an election. And same in the United States, right? I think our institutions are strong enough to prevent that kind of voter fraud on that scale.

32:51David Daoud: The people that founded these systems were not fools and they were not short-sighted. I think they predicted that people would act dishonestly and there would be safeguards against that. So I think the same applies in Israel. I think there's a continuation to some degree of the populist campaign that we saw. And it is because the Arab parties are now the blocking block, if you will. neither party, neither bloc, neither the Netanyahu coalition or the anti-Netanyahu opposition can really form a government without them. Now, what am I looking forward to moving forward? It depends on what you mean by that.

33:29I mean, I think, you know, the opposition may try to switch out the Speaker of the Knesset, right, as a measure in order to, you know, The case figure of the Knesset sets the legislative agenda. The problem is that's step one. I could see that happening. I've seen a lot of talk of that. But that's step one. Because you have, if you don't, I'm trying to remember the name of it, but I think it's like the allocations committee. There's a committee that controls who sits there, who sits on each of the other subcommittees of the Knesset and bills that are introduced in the Knesset. won't pass through their respective committees without all these committees being in place.

34:15And the head of that committee will be chosen by the president based on who he thinks will be able, most likely to form a government. So it could actually be a Likud chairman. Now, it doesn't preclude the majority of that allocation committee from being formed by the opposition. But again, it could be a jockeying process. It could be a process. Also, depending on what laws are being passed, you might not have the numbers within the current Knesset to pass those laws. If you're trying to pass amendments to the basic laws, well, again, you're going to need 61+. The basic laws are Israel's quasi-constitutional laws.

34:52You're going to need 61 +, and maybe the Arab parties don't agree with this. And the Netanyahu bloc is not going to want to go along with a lot of these things, say, term limits or, you know, whether someone who's under indictment for criminal charges can sit as prime minister. Obviously, this would affect the coalition's prospects and prime minister Nantini Alba's prospects. There are also other issues that might, you know, other laws that, okay, well, the new speaker's put in place. He's from, you know, the head of the apportionment committee is, is, is, is, comes from the opposition. All the things are in place and you pass certain laws.

35:33Well, depending on what laws they are, right, if a new government isn't formed, and by the way, you know, changing the speaker does not necessarily depend on a government being formed. I should say that at the outset, but if a new government isn't formed, go back to elections, round two, Prime

35:49David Daoud: Minister Netanyahu forms a coalition, you know, that looks a lot like his current coalition. They can just as easily overturn a lot of those laws that were passed. So the impact, you know, there could be a lot of popping champagne bottles that's premature, given that, you know, these laws that could be passed, again, depending on what laws they are, could be easily reversed by the future government. So that's one thing that I can see some kind of movement in the meantime, moving to replace the speaker, but the long-term impact of that remains to be seen. Other than that, I mean, you could see efforts, right?

36:20Avigro Lieberman has talked about peeling away members of Likud towards the opposition. Now, again, that's easier said when you have 56 for the opposition. And again, excluding the Arab parties, if we're going to go by that route, right? Excluding if you have 56 for the Eisenkots bloc. If you peel away, it's more realistic to peel away three or four Likud members, where are the 12 that you're going to peel away from the current Likud lineup? When if you look at the Likud lineup, I mean, this is not Menachem Begin's Likud. Menachem Begin's Likud, the founder of Likud, created Likud.

36:59David Daoud: I mean, the name is consolidation, right? That Likud means consolidation. It was a consolidation of different ideological factions. You had liberals, you had the Heruts party, you had the general Zionists. They all agreed on certain things, but there were always this kind of this centrifugal force that never allowed one party or one faction or another or one ideology or one outlook or another to dominate. And this was by design. This was, you know, Begin's vision. This was Jabotinsky's heritage because he didn't want the rise of leaders. Jabotinsky, the founder of the ideology that Likud says it's an Arab, said that men don't have leaders, right?

37:34People don't have leaders. Buffalo have leaders. Men have stewards who come and do their job and leave. So that's vision that Likud was built on not you know not the unified leader not the kind of the idolized leader um but you know over recent years that kind of that tension within Likud has been streamlined and what you see is the Likud that is increasingly more loyalist to the person of Netanyahu to the figure of Netanyahu to the vision that Netanyahu is putting forward so your ability to peel off three four is shrunken there's no way you're peeling off 12. and there i don't know what other other factions from the opposition, you know, Otzmai Udzit, right, Benvir's faction is not going to come over, Smotrich's faction is not going to come over, no members of them, the ultra-Orthodox have no, be it the Sephardic or the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party, they don't have the numbers to make the government, right?

38:28The Sephardic, at least the Ashas, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party, is at least Zionist in name. You know, they're like a little bit more flexible on the issues of service and integration, but they don't have the numbers. I think they have seven seats. So how much could you peel away from the Netanyahu bloc or the Netanyahu-led opposition to actually get to the 61? I think you'll see some horse jockeying. I think on the opposition side, you might see Lapid try to soften opposition to relying on the Arab parties. Lapid did make a statement. I think it was at Biakhad's, his joint party with Naftali Bennett's election victory party saying, you know, we'll expand the coalition later.

39:10But again, we'll see. Like, I could see those kinds of movements. I could also be the inverse that Netanyahu tries to, you know, present. You don't have a desire in Israel for multiple rounds of elections. That leaves the country in stasis. It leaves the economy in stasis. It's not a good thing. And elections cost money. Each election process costs a lot of money. So it's a burden on the Israeli taxpayer. You can see Prime Minister Netanyahu saying, look, guys, I don't want to go to another round of elections. You don't want to go to another round of elections. I'm probably going to win much better in the next round of elections.

39:42You pulled out all the stops and you couldn't beat me. It's going to create demoralization on your side. That could redound to my advantage in a future election. Let's just dispense with this process. And he did make this appeal during his, perhaps not full victory speech yesterday, but saying, like, let's just form a broad right-wing Zionist government. And he could trade off and say, I'll get rid of Ben Gvir. I'll get rid of Smutrish. You sit under me. You know, go back on your promise not to sit with me, Ben, you know, Victor Lieberman and Bennett and even Gadi Eisenkot. And let's just do away with this process.

40:15You know, I'll make some concessions here or there. I'll give you the defense portfolio or you the foreign minister portfolio or what have you. And let's just move forward. I could see that being a more realistic way forward. Again, I don't know if this is going to depend very strongly on how much Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman mean it when they say we will never sit in an attenuant government and whether pragmatism right now is not a smarter option than sticking to your guns. Well, there is certainly a lot to look out for. And I really appreciate you coming on and breaking down the moment we're in right now.

40:53David Daut, thank you so much for coming back. You're welcome back anytime. Well, hopefully we won't have to come back for this. Maybe this will be resolved quickly, but it's always a pleasure to come on and be able to discuss these things in detail and with nuance.

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