New Poll Has Bleak News For Trump & GOP: Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead Just Days Before Midterms

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0:59Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Matt Taglia. He's the senior director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for coming back on. Thanks for having me back, Brittany. Just days before the midterms, Emerson College Polling has a new national poll out. And to start off the conversation, I want to talk about someone who's not on the ballot this year. Historically, the midterms are a referendum on the party in power. Obviously now that is the Republican Party, but it's also a referendum on the White House. That would be President Trump.

1:32So I want to start off by talking about him. Two years since he was elected for a second term, how do voters feel about him now? Brittany, I think that that is a good way to state it. This is sort of a referendum on the president and his administration. And right now, folks do not feel good about President Trump and in his administration, he has yet again, the worst approval rating that we have seen since we started tracking his approval rating way back in 2017. So 37 % approved to 57 % disapproved. So that's a 20 point gap there. And there is a gap between President Trump's approval versus how folks will actually vote on the congressional ballot, which we can get into in a second.

2:20But, you know, this does not set the stage for a successful Republican year. We knew it was going to be bad, but we just didn't know how bad it was going to be. I noticed you said it yet again, because in past conversations, you said that President Trump's approval rating made history for being the worst since you started tracking it. How is he losing support? I mean, who is hopping off the Trump train? I think the better way to look at it, Brittany, is who's still there? So I think we have, you know, a segment of the population that is roughly, you know, a quarter who are what I would call diehard MAGA.

3:03You know, they are going to support President Trump no matter what. I think that that is sort of true of any president, but I think that those folks are the most vocal and they really are extremely dedicated to the president. As far as, you know, is there a bottom? Is there a floor? I don't know. I suspect it's somewhere around 30%, 33%. He's always going to win over some folks who either have pet issues that they approve of him for. But, you know, at the end of the day, he has lost so much support from voters like independents, men, Hispanic voters. You know, these are some of the voters who crossed the across the aisle, so to speak, to vote for him in 2024.

3:50And they, by and large, are he is bleeding some of these voters in his approval numbers. And we see that trickle down to other Republicans as well. I know that he's not on the ballot, but if I was a Republican on the ballot, I would be sweating hearing that and hearing you say we're seeing President Trump and the sentiment around him, his disapproval rating. We're seeing that trickle down. So talk to us a little bit about that. How are people feeling about the Republican Party? And how are people feeling about the Democratic Party just days away from the election? Yeah, Brittany. And so we see similar numbers to what we've seen previously in the generic congressional ballot.

4:28It's 52 % for Democrats, 42 % for Republicans, and just 5 % undecided now. So Republicans have really failed to gain any support since we started tracking this back in 2025. They were at the exact same point, about 42%. Meanwhile, Democrats have added about eight points. So they are capturing those undecided voters, those folks who were sort of on the fence and maybe really didn't like the Democratic Party. I don't know that any of this really speaks to the popularity of the Democratic Party, more so the unpopularity of Trump and Republicans. Now, I mentioned that gap. There is this 10-point gap.

5:11There's a net 20 % disapproval for Trump, but it's only net 10 % for Democrats. So I think we do see a little bit there where folks don't fully approve of the Democratic Party, and they aren't necessarily willing to vote for a Democrat in their local house rates. And there is that 10-point gap, like you said, but 5 % are undecided. How much does that matter, if at all? Progressive's Accident Response can contact emergency services if you're in a major accident. The only thing worse than someone you love being in an accident is not being able to help them. So Progressive is here to help when you can't.

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6:35I think it does matter actually here. It is low. 5 % isn't that many. However, when we're talking about some of these closer districts, and in this case, I think the closer districts are going to be really anything that the president won by less than 10%. I think that the Democratic lead could be even higher. So most of the remaining 5 % of those undecided voters, a majority disapprove of Trump and his job performance. Only about 16 % actually approve of Trump. So I think that that gives us a clue as to how these folks are gonna vote. It's gonna be tough for Republicans to win those folks when they disapprove of the president overwhelmingly.

7:23But I think there's also the question of if they end up voting. But I think at the end of the day, most of these folks will. I know historically there's typically lower voter turnout in midterms opposed to a presidential election. But are people excited to be heading out to the polls? What parties are excited for these midterms? Yeah, so we see overall that 67 % say that they are very excited. 21 % are somewhat excited. 5 % not too excited. 5 % not at all excited. But looking at the partisan breakdown there, that's where it gets interesting. So 76 % of Democrats versus just 64 % of Republicans.

8:08So still a majority, but quite a gap there, say that they are very excited to vote on Election Day. That number is 62 percent for independents. So we've seen evidence of this throughout the polling in this election cycle that Democrats have this enthusiasm advantage. We definitely see that here. You asked voters about a whole host of different issues, everything ranging from cost of living to immigration reform. And from all of those, you asked them where a candidate's position was on each of those would impact their vote the most. What did you find? Yeah, so we wanted to approach the issues a little bit differently this time rather than just asking the top issue.

8:51We wanted to see what was actually motivating for voters, what candidate positions actually mattered most. So the cost of living, as you may expect, that was top. That was 34 percent. But next was fighting corruption in government. That was 28%. So those two issues alone account for the majority of the motivating factors for voters to choose one candidate or the other. So that's pretty interesting. And then when we look at some of these other issues, lowering taxes was at 10%, fixing immigration laws, 8%, ending the war in Iran, 6%, reforming healthcare, 6%, creating jobs that pay well. These are less important.

9:35There are always going to be folks who say that that is their top issue. But there's not that much daylight between the parties here when it comes to corruption numbers and the cost of living. These two things are top of mind among both parties as well as independents. That's really interesting. And now I want to talk about an issue that has been gaining traction in recent months, and that's artificial intelligence. There's a lot of mixed feelings surrounding AI. Some people are really excited about the technology's potential. Other people are worried about the potential safety risks it poses.

10:13Anything from, hey, is that going to kill me eventually to, hey, is that going to steal my job? And there's another camp of people that don't really know how to feel about it just yet. What did you find about how voters feel about AI? Yeah, so Brittany, we asked several questions about AI in this poll. First was just how often folks use AI. Find that 38 % use it daily, 25 % weekly, 15 % monthly, and then about a third of the electorate say they never use it. As you may expect, the highest usage was among those who are under the age of 30, 43 % say that they use it daily, but majorities of younger folks use it at least weekly.

10:56When we asked about whether or not AI is a good thing or a bad thing for society, 28 % say that it's a good thing. 30 % say that it's a bad thing. Interestingly, among those younger folks, a majority say that it's a bad thing despite using it heavily. And then when we get into data centers, we also asked about that, the things that are actually powering AI, we still find that a majority are opposed to them in their communities. Matt Taglia, I always appreciate our conversations. The last one ahead of the midterms. Thank you so much for coming on and hope to speak soon. Thank you, Brittany.

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