New Poll Shows Democrat Has Edge In Kansas Senate Race—A State Trump Won By 16 Points In 2024

0:00Adam Hamilton: This podcast is supported by Anthropic, the public benefit corporation behind Claude. Everyone's got a hard question about AI. Anthropic was built to surface those questions and share what it finds along the way, because there's hope in hard questions. Ask yours at claude.ai slash Spotify and keep thinking. That's claude.ai slash Spotify. Chronic migraine means 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more. Botox, on a botulinum toxin A, is a chronic migraine treatment that prevents headaches in adults. It's not approved for adults with migraine who have 14 or fewer headache days a month.

0:39Adam Hamilton: Botox prevents, on average, 8 to 9 headache days and migraine-probable migraine days a month versus 6 to 7 for placebo. Huh, I'm having fewer headache days this month. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache.

1:06Adam Hamilton: Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lou Gehrig's disease, myasthenia gravis, or Lambert-Eaton syndrome, and medications including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Ask your doctor. Visit BotoxChronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more.

1:30Matt Taglia: Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for coming on.

1:40Roger Marshall: Happy to be back, Brittany.

1:42Matt Taglia: We are just a weekend and some change away from the midterm elections, and one of the races that could decide the control of the Senate, surprisingly, is Kansas. This is a state President Trump won back in 2024 by 16 points. It's also a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator in over 90 years. But just days away from the midterms, Emerson found that Democrat Adam Hamilton has a slight lead over the Republican incumbent, Senator Roger Marshall. So to start off the conversation, talk to us about what the poll found.

2:11Roger Marshall: Yeah, Brittany, like you said, this was a bit of a surprise. but we have Adam Hamilton at 49%, Roger Marshall, the Republican at 45%, Libertarian David Graham at 3 % with 3 % undecided. And then when we asked those undecideds if they had to make up their mind now, who they would support, and we find that Hamilton reaches 50%, 47 % for Roger Marshall, and then 3 % for the Libertarian candidate. So yeah, this is a little bit of a surprise. But as we've seen throughout the cycle, there are some Democratic surprises here. They really are running the map. And there are just many more possibilities for them than certainly for Republicans and certainly than just six months ago.

2:59Matt Taglia: Why do you think this is a Democratic surprise? What about Kansas is making it that way? Because President Trump, he won 2016, 2020, and 2024 in Kansas by over double digits. Yet you and I were talking earlier right before this conversation, and we were talking about how the state has a Democratic governor. So what is making this race so interesting?

3:24Roger Marshall: Yeah, Brittany, and I think that Trump himself is one of the things that's making it interesting. We see his approval in the state is 45 % versus 51 % disapproved. That is terrible in a state where Trump won by about 16 points. So, you know, I think that's the sort of first indicator. We also know that we're going to have a bit of a wave year naturally with increased Democratic turnout. You know, not necessarily a wave, but a wave of Democratic turnout. So I think that that's the next sort of bit of evidence. And then you look at some of the crosstab numbers in this and you see 60 percent, over 60 percent of independents are breaking for Hamilton, just 28 percent for Marshall.

4:09Roger Marshall: 17 percent of Republicans are crossing over to vote for Hamilton. That's that's pretty impressive. I don't know that I've seen any other Democratic candidate in this cycle for Senate garner that much support from Republicans. So I think that's pretty impressive in itself. Hamilton's also winning voters under the age of 50 very broadly. There are very few undecided voters. So I think turnout is going to be really key here. And in the end, I think I would rate this as it tilts Democratic. It doesn't fully lean, but I think there is a tilt here for sure.

4:52Matt Taglia: This race shattered ad spending records. It's reportedly the most expensive Senate race in Kansas history. The Democrat here, Adam Hamilton, he released an ad that didn't even say the word Democrat once. So if you were just a person watching this ad, you wouldn't be able to tell what party he was in because he was saying that he was a candidate that was right down the middle. That's what he touted. So it makes sense strategically what you're saying based on these numbers that he's appealing to more moderate and some Republican voters that he's going about his ads that way. And since September, he's up three points in Emerson's poll.

5:28Matt Taglia: Marshall's up two points. So I'm curious, within the past month, who have you found has jumped on board to support both Marshall and Hamilton?

5:38Adam Hamilton: Now for a quick message from Anthropic. The team behind Claude, the AI built for businesses. Customers count on their bank, and banks count on their most important systems. Now those systems count on Claude, and nine of the Fortune 10 companies use it for critical work. See why leading companies trust Claude at claude.ai.

6:02Adam Hamilton: The secret society of semi-homemade? Listen up. Sam's Club has pre-made dishes for a Thanksgiving feast that's ready in two hours. all while tasting suspiciously homemade. Come join us. Sam's Club. Individual oven times may vary.

6:18Roger Marshall: Yeah, Brittany, I think that it's absolutely smart not tying himself to the Democratic Party here. We've seen in other states like Montana, where that could have been a competitive race if it had been between the Republican and the Independent. But unfortunately for other Democrats, the Democrat in that race didn't drop out. So we don't see that as a competitive race anymore. That's sort of the case here where Hamilton really is able to consolidate some of these independent voters. Again, over 60 % of them are breaking for Hamilton. And then he is able to get some of that crossover vote from Republicans.

7:00Roger Marshall: Now, that's not to say that Marshall can't win here. He certainly could if Republicans keep their numbers up. And if it's an older electorate, especially older independents who show up, that would boost Marshall. This is certainly not off the table for him. We don't see signs of this breaking yet, though. Democrats are up in the early vote numbers. It is an older electorate, but that's what we expect in the early vote in Kansas. So, you know, as things stand, I think it does look very good for Hamilton here. but it certainly isn't over.

7:36Matt Taglia: I do want to talk about that libertarian candidate, David Graham, because he has 3%, which obviously you can't win with that, but you could spoil with that. Do you think he's a spoiler here?

7:49Roger Marshall: He absolutely could be. And we have consistently seen that the libertarian candidate will end up underperforming the polls on election day. Now, I think in Kansas, we have seen libertarian candidates get past that at least 2 % mark. So, you know, like you said, he could very much, he could very well be a spoiler here. If this lead persists, though, if it truly is a four-point lead as it is as we see it right now, then this would be a nail biter. Ultimately, it's tough to call the libertarian candidate a spoiler in that instance, but we'll see on election day.

8:35Matt Taglia: And when you look at the state's governor's race, there's a different picture there. The Republican candidate in that race has some breathing room, not much, but more so than obviously Marshall, because Marshall is slightly down in the Senate race, but the Republican there is up by a few points. What can you tell us about the governor's race?

8:57Roger Marshall: Yeah, that's right, Brittany. So in the governor's race, Holscher, the Democrat at 46 percent. We have Ty Masterson at 50 percent, four percent undecided. After we push the undecideds, we see that it's 48 percent versus 53 % for Masterson. So this is a little bit of a different dynamic here. I would rate this more as a lean Republican. You know, I need to see a little bit more of a lead for a Democrat to really rate that higher for Democrats, just given the history of Kansas and recent elections. Again, Trump having won the state in 2024 by 16 points. So this is not a done deal, but it is certainly less competitive than the Senate race.

9:47Roger Marshall: You know, I think it is worth remembering that Kansas has had a Democratic governor who won reelection in 2022, which was a good year for Republicans, not necessarily a wave, but she did win that election by two and a half points. So again, not a done deal here, But I think everything right now favors the Republican.

10:09Matt Taglia: Like you're saying, none of these races here in Kansas are a done deal to state President Trump won by 16 points, like we've been saying. And people have been surprised at his movements leading up to these elections, right? He's visited Kansas once before this month. He was slated to go for another visit this weekend. That visit was just called off. Based on all of these numbers, how close both races are. also paired with President Trump's approval rating in the state. Do you think a visit from him this late in the game or at all this month, do you think that moves the needle? And if so, by how much?

10:48Roger Marshall: Yeah, Brittany, and that's tough to say. There's always this balance as far as turning out the base versus, you know, not angering other people, not firing up the other side. And in this case, I think that Trump is going to do both there. So especially recently, his messaging has been a little all over the place in terms of the economy, the Iran war. You know, these are things that are certainly top of mind for voters, voters in Kansas, especially farmers. I don't know that that messaging is necessarily helping Republicans in any way. So as much as he may help turn out some of that Trump, MAGA, Republican base, personally, I think that they are going to show up anyway to vote for the Republican, despite the fact that they are really a minority of the electorate here.

11:47Roger Marshall: And so I think that his presence could only distract at this point.

11:52Matt Taglia: And we talk about this every single time, and it's pretty much always the same issue that's the top one for voters, which is the economy. That's the same for Kansas right now. But when you asked voters what their top issues are, did anything surprise you coming out of Kansas?

12:10Roger Marshall: Yeah, Brittany. So as you said, the economy, 44 percent. That's, as usual, the top issue for voters. we saw that health care is at 15 % and threats to democracy is at 13%. So those two issues, those are a little interesting. Health care is one that we have not really seen creep up in this election cycle as much as we have in prior cycles. Threats to democracy, we have seen, we consistently see that. It's very high among Democrats. But that health care number, You know, I don't think that the Trump administration and that Republicans generally right now have, you know, much to say, much by way of messaging on health care.

12:55Roger Marshall: So that is one place where Democrats could capitalize. I think we're very late in the game. And so anything that hasn't been said won't be said. But that was interesting to see.

13:06Matt Taglia: Matt Taglia, I always appreciate you coming on. Thank you so much for the conversations this election cycle. Until next time.

13:14Roger Marshall: Thanks so much, Brittany.

13:44Adam Hamilton: Club. Individual oven times may vary.