New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas Senate Seat Blue

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0:32Matt Taglia: Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Matt Taglia. He's the senior director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for coming back on. Thanks for having me, Brittany. We are less than two weeks away from Election Day, and Emerson has a new poll out on Texas. And one of the most watched and one of the most expensive races this election cycle is in the Lone Star State. It's the Texas Senate race between the state's Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Representative James Tallarico. And we've talked about this race before.

1:06Matt Taglia: It's been tight every single time. Talk to us about it now. Where do things stand right now, less than two weeks away from Election Day? And it's still tight, Brittany, but we do see here that Tallarico has posted a lead. So we have James Tallarico, 48 percent, Ken Paxton at 46 percent, with 5 % still undecided. Now, when we take those undecided voters and ask them if they made up their mind today, who they'd support, then we end up with Tallarico at 49, Paxton at 48, and then 3 % for the Libertarian candidate, Ted Brown, after pushing those undecideds. So, you know, I think that Paxton here has sort of hit a ceiling.

1:49We haven't seen his number really move much over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, Tallarico, he has gained one point each month. So he's up two points over these last two months. And that might not sound like a lot, but it's the trajectory that he would want to see.

2:07Matt Taglia: Definitely, especially in a state that's as red as Texas. So it begs the question, how is he gaining this support? What demographics are going towards Tallarico. Yeah, and so it's similar to what we saw previously in September and before that in August, but Tallarico is winning independents by almost 30 points. That is a substantial margin. Hispanic voters, he's winning by 20 points. Voters under 40 by more than 20 points. And even 10 % of Republicans are crossing over to vote for Tallarico. Compare that to just 1 % of Democrats who are doing the same for Paxton. So we can see he has certainly built something of a coalition here, and he's going to rely on those folks to turn out on election day, many of whom need to vote early, and especially run it up with some of those Hispanic voters and make sure those younger voters turn out.

3:09Matt Taglia: I know this libertarian candidate, Ted Brown, he has just a sliver of support. But even with that, in a race as close as this, is he serving as a spoiler here? It's a great question, Brittany. You know, we've seen it in the past where a libertarian candidate can end up with, you know, one to three percent of the vote and spoil a race or force it into a runoff in states where that applies. So the Libertarian candidate does gain after we push those undecideds up to 3%. Now that could very much melt away come election day. We haven't seen many Libertarian candidates with much success beyond that sort of 1 % to 2 % range.

3:53So I might be a little bit surprised if he makes it to 3%. If he doesn't and those voters do indeed turn out, then Paxton stands to gain from him losing those voters.

4:05Matt Taglia: I know I ask this every time you and I speak about this race, but I'm going to ask it again, because we've seen time and time again in recent years when there is a Senate race in Texas, the Democrat gets a lot of hype. There's a lot of national attention surrounding the race. A lot of money gets poured into the race. But every time the Democrat does not succeed, Texas has been solidly red now for years. A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas since the 90s. So I'm going to ask again, is Texas flippable? Brittany, I think it's flippable this time. So as we saw, Tallarico has consolidated a lot of this vote.

4:45Paxton really is just winning older voters, white voters, men. Now, don't get me wrong, he needs to win those folks, but he's not winning them by the margins that he would necessarily need to in order to win on election day. Now, this is absolutely not a foregone conclusion. These results are certainly within the margin of error. I could very easily see a Paxton win by a couple of points or so. But as things stand, the momentum is really behind Tallarico. Again, we've not seen Paxton's number really move, although he does end up gaining from that undecided push, that may not be enough. So yeah, I think it's in play.

5:29It's very close, but it is very much in play for Democrats here.

5:32Matt Taglia: The governor's race tells a little bit of a different story. The Republican there, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott, he has a bit more distance from his Democrat challenger. Talk to us about that race. Fall has never looked or tasted this good. Sweet Green's fall harvest menu is back with seasonal favorites dressed to impress and made to be devoured. Warm roasted sweet potatoes, crisp apples, maple glazed Brussels and crave worthy flavors in the autumn harvest bowl, maple glazed salmon plate and roasted bacon Brussels side. The season's most desirable menu has returned to Sweet Green featuring fall's best dressed.

6:12Make your move. Order on the Sweet Green app. Yeah, so the governor's race is a little bit of a different story. We saw this before, and we're seeing it again. We see Greg Abbott with 49 % of the vote, Hosa with 45 % and 4 % undecided. After we push those undecideds to make a choice, we see 51 % total support for Abbott, 47 % for Hosa. So Hosa here sheds some of the independence compared to Tallarico does poorly with some of the less educated voters. That's one that's sort of interesting where Tallarico is really able to capture some of the, at least split the vote with Paxton among the least educated voters.

7:00We don't typically see that with Democrats these days. Hinojosa is not able to do that. Abbott is easily able to win those voters along with older voters, white voters, et cetera, the same folks who are voting for Paxton.

7:14Matt Taglia: And let's turn to the issues now. In Texas, what matters most to the people there? And like it is every time, it's the economy, this time too, at the top. But what else shapes out that list? Yeah, Brittany, as you said, as usual, it is the economy as the top issue with 39 percent, Then immigration with 16 % and threats to democracy with 13%. So not to dwell too much on the economy here, but it is up three points since September. It's up nine points since we polled it in August. So that is a, you know, I think we are really seeing the effects of the war in Iran, higher oil prices and gasoline prices at the pump.

7:59You know, clearly this is having an impact on voters in Texas. And those voters who say that the economy is their top issue, they are split between Tallarico and Paxton. So unfortunately, we don't get any clues there. But obviously, both candidates are going to be looking to capitalize on those folks.

8:17Matt Taglia: And I know Election Day is less than two weeks away. We are at the last sprint there. But when it comes to Texas specifically, what are you looking out for between now and November 3rd? Well, I think we're really going to be looking at momentum on the ground, you know, how the campaigns are behaving in the last push towards election day. We are going to be looking at the early vote and how that breaks down by county. But, you know, I don't like to put too, too much stock into early vote numbers and what that translates to on election day. I think it is interesting, but it's more anecdotal. Really, I think, you know, we're just going to be looking at how these campaigns are behaving, where the money is going, where they are physically going.

9:06That's going to give us some real clues as to what's going to happen on election day.

9:10Matt Taglia: Matt Tagley, I always appreciate the conversations and you breaking down the numbers as we head into another election. Thank you so much for the time, and I hope to speak soon. So do I. Thanks, Brittany.

9:52We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time.