'There's More Anger On The Ground' In France After Weekend Of Violent Protests—What Happens Next?

0:02Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is Lisa Homel. She's an associate director of the Atlantic Council's Europe Center. Lisa, thanks so much for joining me.

0:13Lisa Homel: Brittany, thank you. Happy to be here. I really appreciate you joining me today because all eyes are on France right now. Protests have roiled cities across France since mid-September, but this weekend marked a really staggering escalation. The world witnessed images of historic buildings lit on fire, torched vehicles, storefronts completely destroyed, and the shops inside looted. The initial movement largely originated with high school-age students, but since the demonstrations broke out last month, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets, and this weekend alone, around 2 ,400 of them were arrested.

0:48So to start off the conversation, if you could, talk to us about the origins of these protests. protests, what caused them A and B, what led them to devolve into something so much more widespread?

1:01Lisa Homel: Absolutely. Thank you so much. Well, as you laid out in your opening, you're exactly right that this started with protests led by students over school conditions. The conditions of actual classrooms, the lack of teachers or missing teachers, in some cases even rats in classrooms or classrooms that weren't up to providing cooling and insulation for students. However, that has grown or was joined by other frustrations that happened at the same time. So at the same time as we had the return to school and frustration with classrooms, France has continued to suffer from the energy shock that has hit across Europe.

1:42Lisa Homel: Since the closing of the Strait of Hormuz on and off in the war in Iran, energy prices have skyrocketed in Europe. diesel prices have gone up and France has really suffered from that in some cases more than some other countries in Europe and at the same time France's political system right now has been facing a hung parliament and a pretty weak government for years all of this heading into an election that comes in about six months from now and with a budget that needs to be passed currently for 2027. And that budget in order to manage the debt and deficit situation France has found itself is really quite an austerity budget.

2:24Lisa Homel: So all of these factors have come together really at the same time. You know, we saw a squeeze from the cost of living. We saw a fiscal vice and austerity pressure during this squeeze when conditions are already difficult having a budget that proposes to cut spending further, including cuts to public sector salaries for the fourth time in a row, visible state institutions that are not meeting people's needs, political paralysis that comes from the hung parliament and a pretty weak centrist government under Macron, the last few months of a lame duck presidency for Macron. And then from the protest itself, we've seen a few accelerants that I think have added fuel to the fire, so to speak, from this past weekend and will likely play into the forthcoming protests in the coming weeks.

3:23Lisa Homel: And so that would be the police response, which we have seen in some instances, cases of probably excessive force, and then external noise, including from President Trump that really brought in a sort of immigrant focus and closing the borders focus of the conversation. So all of these factors came together this past weekend and will continue to play out in the weeks ahead. Like you said, those factors came together. They made a strong, a potent, a really dangerous cocktail. Macron right now, he's nearing the end of a second term. He's deeply unpopular, but he addressed the nation after the protests turned especially violent over the weekend.

4:07And he essentially said, I'm not saying this verbatim, But his tone and tenor was, hey, I hear you. I hear your concerns. The peaceful protesters, those concerns about the economy, they're legitimate. But high fuel prices and high cost of living, that's due to what's happening in the war against Iran, which France is not a part of. He also condemned and criticized the more violent of the rioters. So he did that balancing act there. Curfews are implemented in France in some cities right now. More protests are expected this upcoming weekend. And it's Wednesday right now. And the economy, school conditions in France, political paralysis, as you said, that can't all be fixed in three days, right, unless some miracle happens.

4:55So what especially are you looking out for next?

4:59Lisa Homel: I'm looking for what happens for the meetings that are expected between the government and union and party leaders. And I'm looking to see what happens in the very short term to address the student complaints. So there's been discussions about sending out substitute teachers to schools and trying to find little bits of funding. But the reality is, is that Macron has far fewer tools in his toolbox right now to meet the protesters demands. And I think we're seeing that the situation is being taken advantage of in campaign season, which we are clearly in. And so both the far right and the far left are releasing comments and messaging.

5:40Lisa Homel: And I think we're going to see more of that. And for the protests that are expected, you know, this coming weekend and the following, I will be very keen to see how the narrative about immigration works its way in, and also what the police or government response will be on the ground. Of course, with the hope that things return simply to peaceful protests. But I think, if anything, there's more anger on the ground right now than less following this past weekend. You mentioned the political implications, and I want to dive a little more deeply into those, because the far left and the far right, the one thing they're agreeing on in their messaging, it seems, is that they're placing the blame here on Macron's government and on Macron in general for these demonstrations.

6:34There's upcoming elections in six months. Like you said, Macron is a lame duck president right now. So for this part of the conversation, when you think about the political implications, what are they for Macron? How much is this a stain to his legacy? What does that look like for him?

6:51Lisa Homel: Well, I think it must be a disappointing way for him to leave office, right? Because his entire goal was to show how a centrist government can successfully lead. and the result right now is that the message people are seeing is that a centrist can't hold things together. A centrist can't hold together the parliament and can't pass a budget through a typical vote. We're likely to see that budget pass through the 49.3 mechanism or some other emergency mechanism and that was not the intention. If anything we've seen the rise of more extremist parties really taking advantage of this perceived and real weakness.

7:35Lisa Homel: And I'm quite sure that that's not the legacy that Macron had in mind. I want to talk about what this all means for the upcoming election. Like we've been saying, Macron has just a few months more left. There's a presidential election in April. He's a two-term president. Right now he is deeply unpopular, but he beat far-right candidate Marine Le Pen twice, albeit that margin was much smaller in 2022 than it was in 2017. But now Le Pen is surging in the polls. She is ahead there six months out. So how do you think these protests and this moment will impact the upcoming election? Well, first, I think when you see chaos and unrest on the ground, that typically does not favor the incumbent in any situation.

8:26Lisa Homel: So then it's a question of does it benefit more the far left or the far right? And I think many perceived the response to Melanchol and the far left to be insufficient. And I think many gravitated towards Marine Le Pen's promise, guarantee for order and respect for law should she win. And so at this stage, My instinct is that this favors the far right messaging, right? Advocating for a platform of order and restoring peace to the streets of France. I mean, that's a very potent message when you see scenes of the rioting and violence that we saw over the weekend. The one caveat that I would say is sometimes the far right does not come out as well when it becomes, when conversations are focused more on the economy.

9:21Lisa Homel: And so if the narrative shifts from one of protests or potentially anti-immigrant sentiment to one of passing the next budget or shaping France's economy, sometimes people might feel more at ease with a more stable, established, centrist response. And so for me, that remains a question mark right now. What direction the debate will take? The next six months could really see a lot of different external events happen. And six months is a long time. But I think a conversation that remains focused on law and order favors the far right. And one that remains focused or starts to focus more on the economy may favor centrist parties.

10:13Lisa Homel: Although if you look at polling, the far right currently is well ahead of all other choices. My last question to you is, I started this conversation off by saying all eyes are on France right now. There's been a worldwide conversation about what is happening and what we're seeing when it comes to these protests. But you are an expert when it comes to this region. I'm curious, do you think anything is missing from the international conversation around what's happening in France right now? Well, if anything, what I would say is missing is the need to broaden the scope a little bit. Because yes, all eyes are on France, but we are seeing simultaneous protests all across Europe.

11:00Lisa Homel: And many of them have the same foundations in the cost of living or energy shock crisis, but then different domestic triggers that prompt the actual rioting or outbursts in each country. And so I would say what's missing from the conversation is that through line connecting the unrest across the continent of Europe and pairing that with the context of the year that we're going into, which is really an election super cycle. Four of the five largest countries in the EU will be going to the poll between now and the end of 2027. And so we are going to see a period where there is significant frustration across Europe and the potential for significant changes in government across Europe.

11:50Lisa Homel: And in many of these cases, especially in France, but not only, we might not see lasting solutions or change until we see the next political mandate. Because as we're seeing from Macron right now in a lame duck period, it can be quite hard to instigate lasting changes, right? It's more about short-term measures to fix things in the short term. So I would say broaden the scope and look at the trends across the continent and also the implications for the the forthcoming election cycle, which will be very significant. And then a final asterisk is that at the same time, the EU is currently negotiating its budget, the multiannual financial framework.

12:35Lisa Homel: And that budget requires unanimous member state support and is significant for the EU wide budget and spending. And so that is one other framing events happening at the same time that really points to the significance of this moment in France and for the continent at all. Really appreciate you lending your expertise today for this conversation. Lisa Homel, thank you so much for coming on. You're welcome back anytime. Thank you so much. I appreciate it.