Top Pollster Breaks Down The Numbers To Explain How Democrats Wiped Out Republicans In Midterms

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1:03Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Harris X founder and CEO, Driton Nesho. Driton, thanks so much for coming back on. Great to see you, Brittany. It's great to be speaking with you, too, especially at the end of such a busy week. And I think the top line here is that it was a good week for Democrats, not so much for Republicans, because Democrats secured a very decisive victory in this week's midterms. They flipped more than 40 Republican seats across both the House and the Senate, and they've regained control of both chambers of Congress.

1:37So to start off the conversation here, when you look at all of the results, what are your takeaways?

1:42Dritan Nesho: Well, I would say that the results are both very simple in certain dimensions and also very complex in other dimensions. Let's start out first with some of the key statistics around the election. So this was a high turnout, the highest turnout midterm election that we ever had, close to 149 million votes. And really that's a participation rate of about 49%, and maybe even slightly higher than that. So higher than it was even, I would say, I won't compare it to 2024 because that was a presidential year and presidential elections have higher turnouts than midterm elections, but let's compare it to 2018, right?

2:34Higher even than 2018 as a midterm election. um what happened is that Trump's and the Republicans MAGA coalition right broader than just the Republican voters they showed up but they didn't vote Republican and so the bigger

2:54Dritan Nesho: story here is really the uh cracks in the coalition that Trump put together to come to power in 2024 and how this coalition essentially revolted. And we can get into the detail of how we see that happen. But really how this coalition revolted as a result of tariffs, as a result of inflation, frankly, as a result of a perception that Trump really both overplayed his hand, but also didn't focus on the core thing that he was elected to tackle, which was affordability and inflation. And actually with several of his decisions and his actions, like the conflict in Iran, helped bring that back to the picture in exactly the same way as voters experienced in 2023 and 2024.

3:54Dritan Nesho: And so this is really the bigger story here that yes, the Democrats performed very well, right? I think this was the best pickup in terms of seats in the last 50 years since really Richard Nixon. But it was less about the Democrats than it was about the dissatisfaction with Trump. And as we've said many times before on the show, and you and I always love to joke about this, you know it's always Trump v Trump right and in this case it seems that Donald Trump defeated Donald Trump in the midterm elections through many decisions obviously that have been coming through over the last two years but really also by nationalizing the midterm elections and making them about Donald Trump and putting himself essentially on the ballot and what happened is that voters reacted to that and said, you know what, we don't believe that you've stayed true to the promises that you've made.

5:00Dritan Nesho: So that's the simple part of the prognosis of what happened. We can obviously get into the complex parts of it, but quite an interesting election for sure. When you're building a company, you learn that trust is what closes deals. You may have the best product, but buyers won't sign without proof that your product is secure, especially if it has AI. Vanta gets you compliant fast with SOC 2, ISO 27001 and more and keeps you secure with continuous monitoring. Hyperbound, a YC-backed startup, used Vanta to unlock the Fortune 100 in under a year. Snowfire got audit ready in a month and closed a multi-million dollar deal.

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6:23Because in midterm elections compared to a presidential, you see a lower turnout. But they went to the polls, they went to the voting booth, but they didn't vote Republican. They chose other candidates. And J.D. Vance, he said this in a very long post on social media. I want to talk about this blame game of whose responsibility it is that Republicans lost and they got battered. They didn't lose by a little. They lost decisively and by a lot. And J.D. Vance said four of the reasons why that Republicans lost is because of the war, because there's not as big of a focus on the cost of living and inflation, because voters want them to put America first, and because voters want the administration and the U.S.

7:05to change the United States' relationship to Israel. He also elaborated that the Iran war is because we lost the war. The president said so himself last night. That's something Vice President Vance said the day after the election. And President Trump, he pinned the blame on everyone except himself. He said it was in part the war and the prices that came with it. He blamed Fox News. He blamed the candidates broadly, said they weren't likable. He said he wasn't on the ballot, and if he were, it would be a different story. But as we know, he was campaigning and saying, hey, pretend I'm on the ballot and vote that way.

7:42Who do you think bears the blame here? Well, look, Donald Trump bears the blame, right? And in our own polling, which we regularly present here at Forbes, you notice that after September, after the Republican convention in the October polling, which was done a few weeks before the election, you see a gap opening and widening, and really a collapse of job approval for Republicans, a collapse of Trump's job approval. We have the lowest job approval that we've actually ever had for Trump at 38%, and really wild dissatisfaction

8:26Dritan Nesho: with the direction of the country and the direction of the economy. You don't get this kind of shellacking, this kind of result, if your own backbench doesn't revolt on you, right? And when you look at the data, when you look at the shifts in the direction of Democrats, the shifts amongst men was stronger than the shifts amongst women. While men, especially in 2024, they broke for Trump and in troves. The shifts amongst whites and Hispanics, which Trump performed very well with in 2024, were actually bigger than the shifts amongst blacks and other types of voters, right? Asian Pacific voters. And again, this is the president's core base from a demographic perspective.

9:19Dritan Nesho: The shifts amongst high school voters, which swung Democratic by 19 points, is deeper than the swing among more educated voters. And one of the stories that no one is talking about is really the depth of the revolt amongst rural voters. In our own polling ahead of the election, we conducted battleground state polling in Texas and in Michigan and in Ohio we noticed a fascinating shift which frankly isn't being reported because it's so strongly cross-correlated with the shift in the male vote and the shift in the lower educated voter vote but really when you compare to 2024 and I'm going to read some of statistics the share of rural vote in texas went from 10 to 30 percent 3x the weight of vote compared to suburban and compared to urban in 2024 the democrats carried about a quarter of that rural vote in 2026 whether you look at the senate race or whether you look at the governor's race they carried about 35 % of their vote, plus or minus one point, depending on which vote you can, whether you look at the Senate or governor's race.

10:43Dritan Nesho: So just there, you could explain the full results of the election in Texas. When you look at Michigan, for example, the rural vote in 2024 was about 22%. The rural vote in 2026 was about 40%. It grew. The proportions were largely the same as how the vote was in 2024. But because it grew and because these votes, you know, broke more strongly towards the Democrats and the Democrats picked up share of vote, then that obviously is a very strong contributing factor to the results in Michigan, both on the governor's race and the Senate race. And we also see a similar picture in Ohio, where the rural vote was 25 % of the sheriff vote in 2024.

11:34Dritan Nesho: It rose to 39 % of the vote in 2026. And there was pickup for Democrats. I mean, Harris and, you know, the other candidates, Democratic candidates picked up about a quarter of the vote in Ohio in 2024. This time around, Acton picked up close to 40 percent of them. So this is a fascinating story. And these voters are really the cannery in the coal mine in terms of the problems that face the Trump administration. because rural voters have been hit hard by tariffs. They can't sell their products because of reciprocal tariffs or because of other restrictions. Their diesel prices have gone through the roof.

12:25Dritan Nesho: In Texas, diesel prices have grown by 80 % in the last year, just to kind of put a fine point on the case. And then more recently, because of the war and the conflict with Iran, fertilizer, which is a byproduct of petroleum, those prices have gone up anywhere between 20 to 40 percent depending on what kind of fertilizer product that you're looking at. So it makes sense that there was this revolt of the backbench especially amongst these rural lower educated voters because there's a triple squeeze that they're facing and the complex picture about populist voters the MAGA base is that they are economic voters.

13:07Dritan Nesho: They are pragmatic voters. They are driven by tabletop issues above and beyond. So this is a big lesson for Trump that his coalition obviously reacts to economic issues above all and even Trump has bosses, in this case Republican voters and American voters, and these voters will self-correct if they are unhappy. But on the other side it's a very big lesson for Democrats not to take this vote for granted, because he can snap back to the Republicans as quickly as it won Democratic in this midterm elections. So this is the complex picture, right? Like the nature of these populist voters, of these MAGA voters, and what we saw in this back-bedge rebellion.

13:54I was going to ask you next about how secure are these voters now for Democrats? Are they just so fed up because if you live in a rural area, you're in your car almost every day, right? So you are constantly driving, you have to fill up your tank, and you are constantly reminded about high prices, just how much it is to fill that tank up, and you're fed up, right? And that's why you're saying you saw this shift. And I saw a lot of videos of made-on-the-street interviews with Texans and they would say, hey, I'm conservative, but and they would explain why they were voting for Tallarico. They would explain why they were voting for Democrats.

14:35And they would say things like, I can't support Ken Paxton. They didn't like his professional or personal scandals that were plaguing him. I don't like high prices. I don't like this war in Iran and things of that nature. And there's this Monday morning quarterbacking when we're talking about the midterms that Democrats didn't win, but Republicans lost. And I had a lot of conversations in the past months leading up to the election. And whenever I asked, is Texas flippable? When it came up in the conversation, people would say, even Democrats would say, maybe there was no full, full-throated, yes, it's definitely flippable.

15:12And James Tallarico is going to do it by double digits. But that's exactly what happened here. So are those voters, how much runway are they going to give democrats here to work on the economy to work on those issues that

15:25Dritan Nesho: really matter to them yeah i mean i think it it depends what the posture of the democratic party is going for for the next two years right and it it's usually easier in congress to hold the party in power accountable to initiate investigations then to pass new bills and to pass legislation and policies right and that is and is likely to be a trap for the democrats if they focus too much on um really payback towards the trump administration and not enough on resolving the problems that americans have then they will pay for it in 2028. on the other side there is opportunity for collaboration between the Trump administration and a Democratic Congress and Senate in the sense that, and this is from a policy perspective, is actually bad for the country, but they both agree on spending money that we don't have as a country or spending their way out of the problems that they're facing.

16:36Dritan Nesho: And so this will be interesting to see because in one side it's a way of providing relief to voters on another side it is kicking the can down the road in terms of the debt challenges that the country is facing and the debt burden which has become almost unsustainable right i mean very close um uh you know we're going to be paying more in terms of servicing the debt than in social security uh uh on an annualized basis and so i i think that But it will be interesting to see the ball is in the Democrats court, just like the ball the last two years was in Trump's court and in the Republicans court.

17:17Dritan Nesho: And you own the outcome if you don't lead with the right strategy. So the ability of Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer to moderate the more extreme factions within the Democratic Party and push them towards common sense solutions, compromise solutions, whether they can do that or not really will determine the standing of the Democratic Party a year and a half from now as the presidential election kicks into high gear. You and I spoke directly after the 2024 election, and it seemed like that was a time where Democrats were in disarray. That was the big headline. Democrats are in the wilderness.

18:04That was another one. Democrats lost control of the White House. And then obviously Republicans had control of the House and the Senate from those elections. And I know that this election wasn't a presidential election, but Republicans, I feel like are in a similar position here. It's a lot of looking back, a lot of self-reflection, a lot of where's our party going next, what's the identity of our party. And I'm curious if this is a moment for Republicans to course correct and how they can do that. First, I'm thinking, would it behoove Republicans to implore President Trump to work across the aisle on issues that matter to the majority of the country?

18:46Can they find compromise with Democrats and work there? Because as we know, President Trump, he said in one breath, hey, I want to work with Democrats. They had a good night today. But in the same breath, he said, but I have veto power on election night. He posted a MAGA hat that said veto on it. Second, do you think that this is a time, especially because President Trump blamed in part the war against Iran for Republicans getting battered? I know Vice President J.D. Vance did outright say that we lost because of the war against Iran. Do you think it's time now, Republicans will think it's time now, that Hegseth gets the boot here, that Hegseth is no longer the defense secretary?

19:29What do you make of that? What does that all look like? Sure.

19:32Dritan Nesho: I mean, let me take them one by one. I mean, absolutely that Donald Trump and the Republican Party have to answer a series of challenging questions that voters have put in front of them number one is how they're going to reduce inflation number two is what are they going to do with tariffs because even though it's the president's favorite pet issue no one likes tariffs and it's clear that the tariffs have hurt his own base more than they've hurt other kinds of voters. And then certainly a resolution to the war in Iran. There's no winning in this war one way or another. There's only losing. If you look at foreign policy issues, they can bring down presidents and presidencies, but they can't really make presidents or presidencies.

20:33It's usually domestic issues that lead to the formation of a new platform and obviously

20:42Dritan Nesho: a new president and a new administration. And so will they be willing to pivot on several of these issues, provide answers to these issues? I don't know, but that's where the test will lie. And on the question of Pete Hexet, look, I mean, the decision as to why we went into Iran, which Trump has owned personally, even as recently as this week when he said we lost the midterms because of the conflict, but I would have done exactly the same if I had to do it all over again. It's a challenging topic. And I think that there's lots of movement and lots of ground for dismissing Pete Hexat because he was one of the cheerleaders for engaging with Iran and as the New York Times and other the Wall Street Journals and other major newspapers have reported he was overconfident in the United States military's ability to bring down the regime and to secure its goals so I think that there is a fair conversation to be had is he right to lead the Department of Defense the Department of War, or does there need to be a change in strategy there given where we stand vis-a-vis the conflict in Iran.

22:03Dritan Nesho: But more broadly than that, there's no winning and really the question is, does the Trump administration decide to hit Iran again and then say, okay, we're done, and this could very well happen in the next 60 days while he still has a Republican Congress that he can bring along or does he basically sustain the economic blockade as it is and control the Iranians by frankly controlling their resources which is a strategy that he's employed before and other American presidents have employed before as well it'll be interesting to see on the issue of Iran because I think that that's really the more immediate of the policy issues where the administration can pivot.

22:50Dritan Nesho: So you know lots to lots in movement but yes I do expect that there will be both certainly Democrats but also Republicans that will want to move on Pete Hexat as a way also of offering something to their voters. A response to the pressure, a catharsis, a change and say you know what we heard you and we are making the necessary adjustments. I know we are still catching up on sleep from the midterms, but obviously we have to look ahead to 2028. I want to start with the Republicans because it seemed like J.D. Vance was the heir apparent, right? He was the clear front runner for a while in 2028 polls.

23:36That doesn't seem to be the case anymore. It seems like knives out, our knives are out a little bit for J.D. Vance here, pinning the blame on him and the Trump administration in general for this Republican battering in the midterms. And he has, it seems like based on that long post on social media, he's trying to distance himself a little bit from the war against Iran. Perhaps maybe he took a page out of Vice President Kamala Harris's book because she didn't separate herself much from President Joe Biden. And look what happened to her. What do you think this all means for 2028 for Republicans?

24:11And does this give Marco Rubio an opening? Well, look, I think that Marco Rubio is the most valuable candidate amongst all of the Republicans, in part because of how important the Hispanic vote is and how pragmatic the Hispanic vote is. If you look at it, the biggest swing or one of the biggest swings, I would say second only maybe to the swing amongst young voters is the Hispanic voter swing, which went Democrat plus 29 or plus 30 percent compared to 2024. for obviously rubio is an essential candidate for the hispanic community and i think that he will have a significant uh sway over that illiterate and certainly he is a very strong standing with both traditional republicans and maga republicans but whether or not it will be rubio in 2028 or Vance or frankly someone else, right?

25:14Maybe, you know, right now we're having rumors about, I'm lacking on the name right now, but former governor of Florida. From DeSantis. Yes, around DeSantis or whether it will be DeSantis or Ted Cruz or other figures. I think that the contest within the Republican Party has just opened up and it will really depend on where we are a year, a year and a half from now, how the Democrats play in their hands and to what extent are each of these groups that went the direction of the Democrats in the midterm election coming back or snapping back towards the Republicans.

25:59Dritan Nesho: So I think at this stage it's a wide open contest and I frankly wouldn't be surprised if neither Vance or Rubio run in 2028, if the trend holds as it is, right? And if there is this brewing protest vis-a-vis the decisions that President Trump has made and if President Trump sticks to his decisions and is not willing to make compromises, then you could very well be looking at a 2028 picture that has no Vance or no Rubio in it. What about Democrats? What does their 2028 picture look like? Because on Tuesday, progressives won across the country, moderates won across the country. And I saw reportedly that Obama's, someone connected to the Obama campaign in 2012 said that over 20 something potential Democratic candidates have already reached out to them regarding 2028.

26:56The field seems wide open there. What does that look like? Well, look, it's exactly what you just said. I think the field is completely wide open. The Democrats have gotten an injection of fresh figures and fresh faces from this election and beyond. And that's a good thing. So I think that one takeaway for the viewers, right, we can talk about the political dynamics in the right and in the left and who's up and who's down. But one thing that is very clear is American democracy is very much alive and is very much healthy. You have had an injection of energy and new figures on the democratic side.

27:39You have voters, Republicans on backbench, as we just spoke about really penalizing their own leaders and their own parties. That's an incredible thing to see, For all the rhetoric about American democracy is faltering, the rise of the extremes, the rise of communists on one side or neo-fascists on the other side, America is doing great. America is doing just fine and obviously it is resolving the various tensions that it is facing, both the populism of the left and the populism of the right or vice versa.

28:17Dritan Nesho: So really this is where you want to be as a country and where you want to be as a democracy. One thing that voters want, and we know for a fact from years of polling now, is that they want compromise and they want common sense and they want the parties to engage with one another. If the parties continue to stonewall, continue to cater to the one-third of each of the parties that is in the extreme, then that's when both of the parties will lose. And that's where you have another election or other elections where the choices are between a rock and a hard place. And so I think that both Republicans and Democrats have a unique opportunity right now to really play forward the best kind of politics, the politics of common sense and compromise, and offer the country real solutions and engage with one another rather than revert to the playbook.

29:16I won't say the old playbook, but it's certainly been the playbook

29:20Dritan Nesho: over the last decade, decade and a half, which is catering to the base, red meat for the base, rather than catering to swing voters and the voters in the center. So there are some very strong positive signals and silver linings here and a lot will be determined going forward. And that's why we'll be polling all the issues very closely and coming back to you and to your team to discuss them and see how things are trending going forward. And I'm looking forward to those conversations. And I think that's a good place to leave this conversation that democracy is alive and well. Driton Esho, always a pleasure having you on.

30:02Thanks so much for joining me. Thank you, Brittany. Appreciate it.

30:31We'll be right back.

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