Trump ‘Is Flat-Out Wrong’ To Think Putin Is Serious About Ending Russia-Ukraine War: Analyst

0:02John Hardie: Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is John Hardie. He's the FDD's deputy director of their Russia program. John, thanks so much for joining me again.

0:14Brittany Lewis: Thanks for having me back on.

0:15John Hardie: I wanted to have you back on because I think it's a really good time right now to talk about the latest in the war between Russia and Ukraine, because we have seen so many developments over the past week. And I want to talk about it from both the perspectives of what's happening on the ground, as well as what's been happening diplomatically. Over the past week, especially, we've seen the relationship between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continue to devolve. Both sides, Russia and Ukraine, have continued to hammer each other with strikes. And Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin both expressed a willingness to resume trilateral negotiations with the United States to end the war.

0:56John Hardie: So before we dive into the specifics here, what are your thoughts on the moment we're in right now when it comes to this conflict? Right.

1:03Brittany Lewis: So starting with the battlefield, Ukraine is really holding its own very stout defense, even clawing back some territory. It's possible this year will end with Ukraine having gained a little bit more territory than the Russians. I think the really tough situation for Ukraine is in the air, defense against ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, and Russian several different types of lower-cost, small-sized cruise missiles the Russians have been developing. So Russia has devised very detailed plans to target Ukrainian electricity, heat, water infrastructure that's on top of their grain exports, steel industry, etc.

1:45Brittany Lewis: Really a full court press on the Ukrainian economy, trying to make some of these cities unlivable for Ukrainian civilians. So this upcoming winter will be very, very difficult.

1:54John Hardie: I want to talk about this deteriorating relationship we're seeing between President Trump and President Zelensky in recent weeks. Just before you and I jumped on this interview, Zelensky apparently told CNN that there was nothing personal going on between him and Trump. But a lot has been said in recent weeks. And I'm curious if you think that's the case, because it seems like this relationship is at a low that we haven't seen since that really ugly White House meeting between Zelensky and Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in February of 2025. Within the past month, President Trump called Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries a disgrace.

2:32John Hardie: He said that this was a war that, quote, should have never started, and I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president. He also assigned the blame squarely on Zelensky for being the one that's holding up peace, not Putin. And this is what President Trump posted about Zelensky on Sunday night, in part, that Zelensky, quote, doesn't want to end this war and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles. A large portion of his land is lost. His oceans and seas are gone. And his male population is low, wounded and or dead. I want this war to end.

3:08John Hardie: And Zelensky himself in recent days has said that he thinks it's better to have partners who are very open and clear than to have those who are killers, even with a smile on their face. And that apparently was about Putin and Trump. So what do you make of where this relationship stands now?

3:25Brittany Lewis: It's obviously very unfortunate the relationship has gotten to where it is now. I think we're still, in terms of material impact, we're still not quite where we were in February 2025, given that intelligence still seems to be flowing and the arms transfers through Pearl. There's some question about whether they're being slow walked, but there's been no cutoff so far. Obviously, the situation with Starlink to Ukrainians felt like a major stab in the back, and it is impeding their operations. And it raises questions about whether the United States will go from not just restricting support to Ukraine, but sabotaging Ukrainian operations in a way that they haven't before.

4:08Brittany Lewis: I think President Trump, unfortunately, has a tendency to blame the victim rather than the invader. And he's just flat out wrong that Ukraine is in a worse position today than it was. I mean, as we just discussed, Ukrainian forces are really holding their own and Russia's having its worst combat performance on the ground of probably the entire war. So the idea that Ukraine has no cards, to use an infamous line, it is just not true.

4:35John Hardie: And then on the flip side, let's talk about President Trump's more pro-Russia rhetoric. And do you think it would be correct to categorize President Trump's actions right now as more pro-Russia and pro-Putin and anti-Zelensky and anti-Ukraine? Is that dramatic? Is that hyperbolic? Is that accurate? What would you say?

4:55Brittany Lewis: Well, it's certainly like that in effect. And I think President Trump has always been under the, his instinct has always been the way you're going to get a deal is to kind of pressure what he sees as the weaker of the two parties in Ukraine to give more ground to Putin. I think this current crisis started not so much from really focus on either of them, but more about Trump's own electoral prospects and those of the GOP in the upcoming midterms. That led to the diesel deal trying to lower prices, which of course, it will not, given the volumes involved. And then the reaction to that kind of led to a cycle of recriminations.

5:35Brittany Lewis: And I think, although the White House denies it, probably the directive to throttle Starlink.

5:41John Hardie: Let's talk about some of those criticisms President Trump is getting for easing some pressure on Russia. Like you said, he announced that deal that would allow Russia to sell diesel to the U.S. and global markets. He also put a pause on sanctions that were required by the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. That was passed with bipartisan support and signed into law just last month. He also expressed a willingness to sit down with Putin as well as China's President Xi to end the war, even if Zelensky wasn't present. And like you said, according to some reporting from The Wall Street Journal, Elon Musk ordered a slowdown of the Starlink satellite assets used by the Ukrainian military after a discussion with President Trump.

6:27John Hardie: President Trump also said earlier this week, Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven't been doing much. What do you make of all of that?

6:36Brittany Lewis: Yeah, so much to impact there. I think that in general, President Trump is just, unfortunately, I hate to say it, but just flat out wrong when he thinks that Putin is serious about ending this war, at least on terms that are realistic. The fundamental obstacle to peace, as I see it, is not Ukrainian resistance to capitulating. It's the fact that Putin is demanding terms that exceed his own military leverage. So he wants Ukraine to voluntarily give up more territory that Ukrainian forces are stoutly defending. That would be both politically and militarily damaging to Ukraine. And Putin is demanding a whole host of other constraints in Ukrainian sovereignty from laws around the language and church to the right to cooperate with Western partners on security.

7:29Brittany Lewis: So to me, if we're going to achieve a settlement, what really needs to happen is U.S. pressure on Putin and hopefully getting Putin to kind of moderate those demands is something that's in the realm of reality.

7:43John Hardie: I know President Trump wants to end this war no matter what. On the campaign trail leading up to the 2024 election. He repeatedly said he could end this conflict in a day. Obviously, that's not the case here. But by easing pressure on Russia, do you think that it's going to have the opposite effect, that it's going to prolong this war because it's, in effect, helping Russia? Of course.

8:08Brittany Lewis: Whether that's easing sanctions on the Russian war machine, I think that the diesel deal probably will not result in that much revenue to Moscow, but it raises the specter of additional deals, that's moving in the wrong direction. By the same token, kind of letting Putin off the hook for continuing to bombard Ukrainian energy infrastructure instead of pushing for the mutual energy truce that the White House had suggested, you're giving Putin concessions for nothing in return. So if I'm Putin, I'm sitting there in the Kremlin, and I'm getting all this for nothing, what's my incentive to compromise?

8:44John Hardie: I wanted to talk a little more about that energy truce that President Trump announced earlier this month because he said that both sides agreed to a pause on attacking the other's energy infrastructure. That was something Ukraine initially committed to. Russia apparently did not. Zelensky said that after that truce was announced, Russia apparently attacked Ukraine's energy and oil and gas sectors 76 times. Zelensky eventually said, hey, we're done with this. Then they resumed attacks on oil refineries and other Russian energy infrastructure. Do you think that Russia is playing President Trump here?

9:24John Hardie: Because essentially, Trump announces this energy truth. Ukraine holds to it. Russia does not. Then when Ukraine resumes attacks there, President Trump attacks and publicly chastises Zelensky here. So do you get the sense that Russia is playing the United States and President Trump?

9:43Brittany Lewis: For some time now, the game has been between Ukraine and Russia. Who can kind of maneuver Trump onto your side? It's almost like a game of tug of war. One minute Russia seems like it's winning, Ukraine has Trump's favor, and it goes back and forth. And so I think right now the rope has gone more over to Russia's side. And so, for example, you see Putin agreeing to restart trilateral technical talks with Ukrainians in the U.S. There's no expectation that Putin is going to actually engage in good faith and move toward a compromised settlement. But it's just trying to feign kind of openness to Trump to continue incurring his favor.

10:27John Hardie: And then what are you looking out for next? because earlier this week, Putin proposed reportedly a summit between President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping to end this war. Someone that's not included there is Ukraine. President Trump, he seemed open to it. But then Zelensky, who has repeatedly called for a trilateral meeting with both President Trump as well as Russia, called for that. The Kremlin said that they're open to having those trilateral talks, possibly in November. What specifically are you looking out for next?

11:00Brittany Lewis: If they do that trilateral on Ukraine specifically, it's just a horrible idea and actually worse than a waste of time, because I think that would really kind of encourage the Kremlin's desire to split the U.S. from its European allies and from Ukraine and try to do a deal over their heads. And I think going to Putin's kind of broader vision and ambitions, a kind of Yalta 2.0 style meeting where you carve up spheres of influence between major powers. I saw that President Trump did say he would like the meeting to focus more on denuclearization, trilateral arms control. Those are good topics to discuss with the Chinese, given that they are so far resisting those efforts.

11:45John Hardie: And what specifically are you looking out for next? And let's say you had a meeting with President Trump right after you and I wrapped up this conversation, what would you say to him?

11:57Brittany Lewis: I'll go back to what I said just a few minutes ago. The primary obstacle to peace is Putin's unrealistic demands. And he cannot force, neither Putin nor Trump can force Ukraine to capitulate right now. Neither has the leverage to do so. So if you want to get a settlement, you have to work on what is the main obstacle. And that's getting Putin to moderate those terms to something that's tolerable to Ukrainians.

12:21John Hardie: And do you think we are going to see peace anytime soon here?

12:26Brittany Lewis: Unfortunately, I don't. My crystal ball broke a long time ago, but I think on the current trajectory, it's safe to say the war will stretch well into 2027 at least.

12:35John Hardie: I appreciate you joining me, you breaking down what exactly is happening and what you expect to see next. And it sounds like we have more conversations in store because it doesn't seem like this conflict is resolving anytime soon. John Hardy, I always appreciate your expertise. Thanks so much for joining me.

12:53Brittany Lewis: Thank you.