'Very Bad' News For Trump And GOP: New Poll Shows Midterms Could Be 'Bloodbath' For Republicans

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1:01Matt Taglia: Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for coming on. Happy to be here, Brittany. Emerson has a new national poll out, and I think the headline is bad news for Republicans, bad news for Trump. And I want to start with the president because Emerson has been tracking how people feel about him for the past 20 months. And his disapproval rating is the highest. You've seen it so far in a second term. So let's start there. How do people feel about President Trump right now?

1:34Yeah, you said it, Brittany. These are bad results for Republicans, bad results for President Trump. So looking at the president first, we see that his approval rating right now is 39 percent approved versus 58 percent disapproved. This is the worst approval rating he's had in a second term. It is actually the worst approval rating we have had for him since we started tracking President Trump's approval rating back in 2017. This is very bad, this minus 19 approval. And it could prove really, really tough for Republicans in the midterm elections. And we see some reversals among some of these folks who President Trump had courted previously, who were steadfast with President Trump, namely independents, Hispanics, and also non-college educated voters.

2:26We're starting to see now that a majority of non-college educated voters disapprove of President Trump's job performance. That is a real headline in and of itself.

2:36Matt Taglia: This is a historic milestone for President Trump in his second term and not in a good way. But if we all can remember, President Trump was elected. He had that four-year break when President Biden was in office. And now he's back. So this was not his first rodeo. 20 months in, do people think he's living up to expectations? What does that look like? Yeah, Brittany, we tested this previously. You know, whether you think Trump's administration so far has been better than it's expected, worse than expected, about as you expected. And things have changed since we last tested that. That was in our 100 days poll.

3:14So the first 100 days of the Trump presidency. Now we see that a majority, 56 percent, say that Trump is doing worse than expected. 26 percent say better, 18 percent as expected. So worse increased from 43 % back in April of 2025 to 56 % now. So a majority of the electorate, a solid majority of the electorate, now thinks that Trump's term is going worse than they even expected.

3:43Matt Taglia: In the years you and I have been talking, two things have pretty much remained consistent. One, the economy is almost always the top issue. And B, if voters feel that whoever's in office is mishandling the economy, they will say that with their vote, right? In 2024, we saw more voters think President Trump would be better at handling the economy than Biden and then Harris. And we see President Trump won that election. But as of now, President Trump's tariff policy, which was a staple of his second term, has driven up prices. And today, according to AAA, the average price of a gallon of gas in this country is almost$4.50, and that's due to the Iran war.

4:30Matt Taglia: So how do voters feel about President Trump's handling of the economy? Yeah, and if we thought that it was bad that folks thought that Trump is doing worse than expected. Well, this number is even worse. 60 % say that President Trump's economic policies are making the economy worse. There's just 28 % who say that his economic policies are making the country's economy better. So that's up 14 points since April 2025, again, when we tested in that first 100 days of the Trump presidency poll. So really, it's bad news just piling on here. As you said, we know that gas prices are up, that it's due to the Iran war.

5:18We'll see in some of these issues a little bit further down the poll that that's really bad news for Trump. It's really bad news for Republicans. And this just feeds into that.

5:27Matt Taglia: Let's get into some of those issues because you've had voters rate a slew of issues on a scale of one to five to how important they were when deciding their candidate in November. One being the least important, five being the most important. And you asked about everything from the Iran war to AI. What issues matter most and least to voters?

6:10Professional monitoring at simplisafe.com slash Spotify. 30 seconds response time requires monitoring plan with outdoor protection starting at$49.99 a month. Visit simplisafe.com slash licenses for alarm license information. It was many nights before Christmas and one woman knew she needed a tree. So to Wayfair, she flew. She found more decor and added to cart. Merry Christmas to all. Get your Wayfair head start for holiday decor. You can count on Wayfair delivers. Yeah, Brittany, this was interesting. So we weren't necessarily expecting these results. But the most important issue to voters when it comes to their vote for Congress and other offices in November is the Iran war.

6:47So we asked on a five-point scale, one being least important, five being most important. So the average was 3.9 for the Iran war. It's followed by jobs at 3.8, gas prices, tariffs, immigration, and AI regulation all at 3.7. And then towards the bottom of the list, we have interest rates at 3.6. The Israel-Gaza War at 3.3, and then data centers at 3.2. That one was especially interesting, just given how much coverage of data centers we've seen. And we know that folks don't like them. Nevertheless, it's not necessarily driving votes here. The Iran War is the standout issue by far. That is driven largely by older voters.

7:28So a majority of folks over the age of 60 give that a 5 rating. We know that it's unpopular from our recent polling. The vast majority of these people most likely want it to end. So again, we can see some of these issues are really piling on. Some of the Trump administration's policies are really deeply unpopular. They blame Trump and they blame the GOP.

7:53Matt Taglia: Now let's zoom out a little bit because we're just a little over a month before the midterm elections. And I'm curious what this means for Republicans headed into the midterms. Does dissatisfaction for President Trump, who's not on the ballot, mean dissatisfaction for Republicans who are on the ballot? And, Brittany, there's not really any sugarcoating it here. I think it absolutely translates to dissatisfaction with Republicans generally and especially those on the ballot. So when we ask folks who they'll support in the November election, 53 percent say they'll support a Democratic congressional candidate.

8:3142 % say Republican candidate with 5 % undecided. Looking a little bit deeper in those numbers, we see that independents are at 60 % for Democrats, 31 % for Republicans. Among Hispanic voters, it's 64 % for Democrats, 31 % for Republicans. So we have reverted back to the July all-time high. If the GOP really wanted to win this election, if they wanted to see some good news in here, they'd want to see that number going in the opposite direction, not expanding back to an all-time high for Democrats.

9:08Matt Taglia: And usually midterms don't get as much fanfare as presidential elections do. But I'm curious, who's excited for November, if anyone is? Is it Democrats to maybe use this as a referendum on President Trump and the GOP? It doesn't sound like Republicans are that excited and jazzed to get out to the polls. How are people feeling? You're exactly right, Brittany. Republicans lag here as well. So when we ask folks how excited they are to vote in the midterm elections, we see 78 % of Democrats say they are very excited, 70 % of independents say the same, and 66 % of Republicans say they are very excited.

9:51That is a 12-point edge for the Democrats there. This could compound the losses for the GOP if turnout is diminished because there just isn't excitement out there. Folks aren't necessarily motivated to go to the polls. And among the very excited folks, the people who say they're very excited, 60 percent plan to support the Democrat on their ballot versus 38 percent for the Republicans. A 22 point gap. I think that that is worth underscoring here. That is a devastating number. This could be a bloodbath for Republicans in November.

10:29Matt Taglia: That is quite the statement. This could be a bloodbath for Republicans come November. And if I'm a Republican right now looking at these numbers, especially if I'm on the ballot, I mean, what am I hoping for? An October surprise? How effective are October surprises anyway when it comes to elections? What say you? That's tough. I think an October surprise would be more effective if we had a presidential candidate on the ballot. You know, that's when you can really tie one major story to one person. It's tough to do that here. Maybe in some of the states, some of these closer states with Senate races, that could be the case.

11:13The only positive side that I could see for Republicans here is that young voters are slightly less excited to turn out and vote. So that could be an issue for Democrats expanding their margin from where it currently stands. But probably not because they are winning older voters. Again, as we know, older voters being the most likely to turn out. So, again, you know, these are disastrous results for Republicans. It could get really ugly.

11:43Matt Taglia: Matt Taglia, I always appreciate you coming on and breaking down the numbers with us. Thank you so much for the time. I hope to speak with you again soon. See you next time, Brittany.

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