Will Democrats Flip The House And Senate In The Midterms? Here's What History Says

0:03Allan Lichtman: Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Allan Lichtman. He's a historian and a distinguished professor at American University. Professor Lichtman, thank you so much for coming back on. Always a pleasure to talk to you, Brittany. We are less than two weeks away from the midterms right now. And as you and I sit here, there are at least two factors that are not on the GOP side, and that's polling and that's history. Republicans are not doing well in the polls right now. President Trump's approval rating is underwater. The majority of Americans think that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

0:39Allan Lichtman: And according to recent polling, the generic congressional ballot shows that Democrats have around an eight-point edge. Also, history is not on the side of any party that controls both chambers of Congress as well as the White House, which obviously the Republicans do right now. So start off the conversation. What are your thoughts on how all things are shaping up this close to the midterms? Yeah, history is even worse for the Republicans than you point out. The latest poll has updated the generic poll to plus 11 for the Democrats, which is amazing. Now, you're right. Midterm elections are bad news for the White House Party.

1:24On average, they lose about 25 House seats and three Senate seats. But, as you point out, Trump's approval rating is so low that when a presidential approval rating is below 40%, the averages leap ahead to 40 House seats and six Senate seats, more than enough for a landslide within the House and to take back the Senate. I'm not necessarily predicting that, but I do think it's 90 % plus that the Democrats will win back the House and two-thirds that they will win back the Senate. There's another thing you need to look at. Look beneath the polls. Look to the enthusiasm factor. Who really wants to vote?

2:16You know, midterm elections are the one time that the American people can render their verdict on the party holding the White House. And usually Republicans are ahead, but this time Democrats are way ahead when it comes to enthusiasm. I'll also point out, Brittany, yeah, we're less than two weeks from Election Day, but about 20 million people have already voted by mail or in early voting. And so far, the early returns very predictably and very heavily favor the Democrats.

2:54Allan Lichtman: Are people excited to head to the polls this Election Day to submit their ballot early, though? because I was speaking with a GOP strategist a few hours ago and she said, you know, I do think that Democrats are going to win big, but I don't necessarily want to call it a blue wave. I want to call it a red shellacking. It's not because people are so jazzed about Democrats. It's because people are so annoyed with Republicans. What do you make of that? What do you think the sentiment is right now? You know, fear sells. Negativity works. I think the person you've talked to is probably right. Remember, a midterm election is a referendum on the White House party, and I do think this election is a negative response to a horribly failed president.

3:45And let me also say, it's also some very weak Republican candidates. Just tell me, which of the Republican candidates for Senate really inspire you, really excite you, including lots of incumbents. And some of the candidates are just plain awful. In Texas, I have been told for 20, 25 years, the Democrats are going to make a comeback. It's not going to turn blue, but the state will turn purple. And Democrats haven't won a single statewide election for Senate or for a state office in decades. But you could have surveyed the entire great state of Texas, and it would be hard to come up with a worse candidate than the scandal-ridden Ken Paxton, who could break the pattern and land a Democrat in the Senate in Texas, something really no one expected a year ago.

4:49Allan Lichtman: People have always looked at these Texas Senate races. Democrats have poured millions and millions into them. People said Texas could flip this time. We heard that with Beto O 'Vork. We heard that with Colin Alvred. Obviously, that hasn't happened. We haven't seen a Democrat in Texas win a statewide race in over 30 years. But things could be different, you're saying, with James Tallarico here. Polling shows that they're either tied or Tallarico is pulling a few points ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Do you think Texas will flip? Do you think it's because of Tallarico? Or do you think it's because, like you said, Ken Paxton has had an albatross of scandals, both professional and personal, around his neck now for years?

5:36You know, had it been Senator Cornyn, I would think Texas would have been true to form and reelected Cornyn to the U.S. Senate. But I think Paxton is such a bad candidate and Tallarico is well suited as a Democrat for Texas. You know, a very centrist appealing type of candidate. If it was just one-on-one on the candidates, leaving aside the makeup of the state, Cala Rico will be trouncing him. So the question is, are Texas going to vote for the much better candidate or revert to form and vote Republican? You talk about Beto, who ran a very close race against a much better candidate than Paxton, a sitting senator, Ted Cruz.

6:25He was pretty unpopular. People don't like him, but he wasn't scandal ridden the way Paxton is. So Beto never had the kind of lead in the polls that Tallarico has had. We haven't seen that, as you said, for 30 some odd years or more in Texas. So while it's perilous to call the race definitively, I will tell you the Democrats are more likely than not to carry Texas.

6:56Allan Lichtman: we're forbes we love following the money and an interesting pattern that it's developing is where the gop is putting their money where they're pulling it back they're putting it into places that are pretty reliably red we've seen them pouring money into defending seats in more traditional red territories like senate races in mississippi and kansas and red congressional districts in Pennsylvania, Missouri and Kentucky. They're pulling back from more competitive races like the Senate campaigns in both Georgia and North Carolina. What do you make of that, especially paired with the fact that when you see this last sprint to the midterms and you see where President Trump is going, he's visiting places where he won by double digits in 2024, like states like Kansas, Iowa and Florida.

7:45Allan Lichtman: He's also visiting Georgia a few times. He's only he only won that by about two points, but still he won that in 2024. He's visiting in a few times in this lead up to the midterms. What do you make of those things? Read between the lines there. I've been astounded by the fact that Democrats are competitive in some very deep ruby red states. My bellwether state is Kansas. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the Herbert Hoover administration during the Great Depression of 1932. Almost 100 years. Yeah, almost 100 years. What happened? What happened in Kansas? Is it the is it the demographics in Kansas?

8:32Allan Lichtman: Is it the people? Is it the candidates? What do you think there? It's not the demographics. They haven't changed that much in just a few years. Still a very heavily Republican white state. I'll tell you what's changed Donald Trump being so miserably unpopular even in these red states he's unpopular across the board in the United States second thing that's changed is the state of the country people are really unhappy with the state of the country 71 % nationally think the country is going in the wrong direction You know, gas prices are high. Other prices are high. The economy is sluggish. It's not creating jobs.

9:20Our democracy is in peril. And people are starting to realize that. Democracy has moved up to one of the top issues of people's concerns. and Marshall in Kansas is a horrible candidate. This guy, you know, seems to be a predator going after his patients, you know, hundreds of them for debts, even trivial amounts of money, charging 18 % interest. You know, the mafia would be happy with that. And some of his former patients have gone to jail because they haven't met court dates. And it turns out he stiffed one of his own small business people, a baker who, you know, made hundreds of dollars of worth of baked goods for him.

10:09And he only paid it when that was exposed in the media. So it's a combination of an unpopular president, a dire situation in the country, and a terrible Republican candidate. You know, here's the thing. This is really important, Brittany. These Republican candidates, they're not raising money. They're either even or being outraised by their Democratic opponents, which is astounding for Republicans. So where is all of that Republican money coming from? It's coming from the very rich, the billionaires, the multimillionaires through political action committees and independent committees. committees.

10:54This bodes a very dire situation for our society and our democracy. We have become a society where wealth is so unequal that a very few individuals command such outlandish wealth that they are able to exercise enormous influence over our elections, subverting the very idea on which America was founded, the sovereignty of the people, not the sovereignty of the billionaires. Musk alone, the richest person in the world, richer than most countries, has poured hundreds of millions of dollars in this campaign to a great extent, spreading all kinds of misinformation, not for any principle, but just because he believes compliant Republicans will pad his own pockets.

11:55Allan Lichtman: We're nearing the end of October. I'm curious if you think that there's going to be any element of an October surprise that could impact any race and perhaps maybe the closest we've seen to one and arguably maybe one of the biggest campaign missteps we've seen this entire cycle could be the attack ad that Vivek Ramaswamy released of his opponent, Amy Acton, and it included Amy Acton's mother, who Amy Acton says they're estranged. They have been for decades because her mother stayed with her stepfather, who Amy Acton said sexually abused her. And that ad was condemned by both Republicans and Democrats.

12:35Allan Lichtman: And I'm curious if you think that is going to have an impact on that race, on Republicans in Ohio, and perhaps Republicans nationwide? What do you think the impact of that ad could be? Don't take my word for it. Take the word of a staunchly conservative Republican woman who's faced challenges of her own with sexual assault, Nancy Mace. You know, no crazy liberal. She thinks this is one of the most lowest, disgusting, awful political ads ever issued. You know, exploiting and taking advantage of a woman who was abused and raped at age of 12. And this mother, who hasn't seen her in over 40 years, was abetting all this, sticking by the alleged rapist who by the way was charged and became a fugitive and the mom stuck with him until his death while he was a fugitive from justice this is though beyond this awful uh governor candidate ramaswamy it's emblematic as you said of what republicans have been doing all over the country this attempt to smear their opponents and why are they doing that because they cannot run on their record.

14:04They cannot run on what they're doing for ordinary Americans. So they have to resort to the lowest, most scurrilous, most inflammatory kinds of appeals, trying to stir up fears rather than anything positive in the American people. I never believed that the infamous Willie Horton commercial of 1988 that tried to associate Mike Dukakis with this furloughed black fierce man who committed terrible crimes while on furlough. But somehow the Republicans have topped that. This one is even more reprehensible because it exploits sexual abuse and is very personal to the candidate and has nothing to do with any issue, any principle whatsoever.

15:01I hope this blows up in the face, not just of Warma Swamy, but Republicans everywhere and the reprehensible J.D. Vance, you know, who sold his soul. He is blackened in dust inside saying this is, tell it like it is. We should support this commercial. How low can you go, J.D. Vance? I guarantee, I guarantee to you right now, Brittany, long before the election, that J.D. Vance will never, no matter the circumstances, be elected president of the United States.

15:38Allan Lichtman: I want to get to 2028. But before we do, I want to put a pin in 2026. What races are you looking out for on November 3rd that you think, you know, this will tell us X, Y, or Z. This will be a close one. This could be a surprise. What races do you have your eye on? I have my eye on Maine. There is the ultimate Republican survivor there, Susan Collins. You know, for decades, the prediction of her death politically has been greatly exaggerated. Will this be another survival election or the end of the Susan Collins story. I'm also looking at Minnesota and Michigan which are two difficult states for Democrats to hold.

16:28Let's not forget to win the Senate they have to hold some ground and also make gains in Republican states. So I'm looking at Minnesota and of course because as an expert witness in civil rights I have litigated as an expert. So many cases in Texas and I've heard so many stories about a Democratic comeback in Texas. So of course I'm looking at the Bellwether Texas case and then I'm looking at Kansas. As you say, a Democrat hasn't won a Senate seat there in almost a hundred years. Are we going to have a big surprise in Kansas? And if so, it's going to be a very long and grim night for Republicans.

17:13Allan Lichtman: And now seeing all of this, what do you think all of this will say for 2028? Because November 4th, that's when everyone's going to start campaigning for 2028. Do you think that how much do you think President Trump's disapproval or approval rating being in the tank due to how much do you think that'll impact 2028? How much do you think if it's a blue tsunami, that will make a difference versus perhaps a blue trickle? What do you think this all looks like? What do you think this all means for 2028? Yeah, of course, very early to make predictions about 2028. But with that grain of salt, I will talk about it.

17:54First of all, the results of midterm elections are one of my 13 keys to the White House, but they're only one by themselves. They're not especially predictive of what's going to happen in the next presidential election, but they are at least somewhat predictive. So not only will the results in terms of the Democrats' ability to take back the House and the Senate, but the margins of their victory have some predictive effect on 2028. The other thing, these elections may nurture some candidates, and I'm particularly looking at my favorite candidate, The guy I think would be the best Democratic nominee, Senator Ossoff from Georgia.

18:43And he is really moving up in the polls. He was nowhere a while ago among Democrats. And if he wins big in Georgia, he is going to emerge as one of the frontrunners for the Democratic presidential nomination. As I said, I think already J.D. Vance's response to the more reprehensible elements of the Republican campaigns has really hurt his ability, maybe not to be nominated, but certainly to be elected. But ultimately, as my keys to the White House indicate, presidential elections reflect the state of the country and the successes and failures of the incumbent administration. I just wrote a new book, Brittany, Great American Presidents, the 12 who've transformed the nation.

19:36And I have a 10 key system there, not for predicting, but for evaluating what constitutes presidential greatness. And one of the lessons of my book is you often have great presidents followed by failed presidents and negative situations in the country. Abraham Lincoln followed the disastrous presidency of James Buchanan and the crisis of slavery. Franklin Roosevelt followed the failed presidency of Herbert Hoover with the Great Depression still raging. So I am holding out. That's why I wrote this book to the American people. Don't despair. We have gone through these kinds of crises before and we could have the emergence of yet another Abraham Lincoln or Franklin Roosevelt.

20:32That's what my book Great American Presidents is all about.

20:37Allan Lichtman: I would love to read the book and then have a conversation post midterms about it and what you think we can see in 2028. So I would love to have that conversation. But separately, before I let you go, I know you don't have a crystal ball. And I know a million things could change in the next week and a half. And who knows with voter turnout and everything like that. But if you had to pick right now, do you think that Democrats will flip the House and flip the Senate? What do you think? It's not an absolute prediction and it's not based on a system, but it's based on the historical and contemporary analysis I laid out at the beginning of our conversation.

21:17So I would say yes, it is more likely than not that Democrats will have a sweep. I don't like the word tsunami, it's so poorly defined, but it's more likely than not that Democrats will take back both the US House and the US Senate and we will have some very different politics over the next two years. If nothing else, the Senate has to pass on Trump appointees and lifetime judges and you're not going to get the rubber stamping you saw in his first two years and you're not going to get a Senate, a house rather, that puts its head in the sand and simply lets Trump get away with anything he wants to do.

22:00You know, a replacement of Tony Johnson with a real speaker will make a difference. This election matters. I know we always hear that, but it really does this time.

22:13Allan Lichtman: Professor Lichtman, I always appreciate our conversations and your expertise and your insight. Thank you so much for joining me. And I'm looking forward to our next conversation. Always great to speak with you, Brittany. Thank you very much.

22:34Thank you.