In short
Preview and analysis of the 2025 Billie Jean King Cup semifinals and the upcoming final (Italy vs USA), focusing on key singles turnarounds, the likely doubles impact, and match-up expectations.
Guests (hosts)
Matt and David (tennis podcast co-hosts). Matt also jokes about wearing a Fulham kit; David mentions coaching his son’s under-14s.
Key claims
- USA reached the final by beating Great Britain 2-0; singles won by Emma Navarro and Jessica Bagula (doubles not needed).
- Italy beat Ukraine 2-1, driven by Jasmine Paolini’s comeback vs Elina Svitolina and Paolini/ Sara Errani’s doubles win.
- Svitolina’s loss is framed as “tightening”/nerves rather than a full “choke.”
- The doubles pairing Paolini/Errani is a major deciding factor for Italy.
Notable examples
- Paolini’s comeback from 3-6, 2-4 down vs Svitolina; pivotal 4-2 game with double fault and missed volley.
- Navarro vs Sonay Kartal: Navarro wins after trailing 3-6, 6-4, 6-3.
- Bagula vs Katie Bolter: Bagula wins 3-6, 6-4, 6-2.
- Final singles expectation: Pagula vs Paolini (Pagula 5-0 H2H, last meeting 2023).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VORecap of Semifinals
0:45 to 3:05
An overview of the semifinal matches and standout performances.
“Well, it's Derby Day, so had to be worn.”
Jasmine Paolini's Performance
3:05 to 4:21
Discussion on Jasmine Paolini's comeback and her impact on the match.
“Marta Kostiuk beating Elisabetta Cotcioretto 6-2, 6-3.”
Analysis of Svitolina's Match
4:21 to 6:41
A deep dive into Svitolina's performance and critical moments in the match.
“Well, incredible tie, but what an incredible match and rubber this was.”
Doubles Dynamics
6:41 to 7:55
Exploring the implications of the doubles matches and team dynamics.
“I think Svitolina will have a lot of regrets over it because she should have closed it and moved within one game of the match.”
Mental Aspects of Competition
7:55 to 10:05
Discussion on the mental challenges faced by players in high-stakes matches.
“You know, how many chances is she going to have to be in that position to put Ukraine into the Billie Jean King Cup finals?”
Looking Ahead: Future Matches
10:05 to 14:00
Speculation on upcoming matches and players to watch in the finals.
“But in this one, see, I don't view it as a choke.”
Match Dynamics and Team Environment
14:00 to 16:48
Learn about the significance of team dynamics in tennis matches.
“and had match points and ended up losing.”
USA's Journey to the Finals
16:48 to 19:44
Discover how Team USA advanced to the finals with key match details.
“Let's talk about how Team USA got there.”
Player Performance Analysis: Navarro vs. Cartel
19:44 to 23:09
Analyze the surprising match between Navarro and Cartel and their playing styles.
“I can certainly think even just anecdotally about a lot of them this year.”
Pagula vs. Bolter: A Competitive Match
23:09 to 26:50
Explore the competitive dynamics of the match between Pagula and Bolter.
“It just slightly fell apart and that was enough for Navarro to really close it out.”
Show all 15 chapters
Team Cohesion: The Role of Jessica Pagula
26:50 to 28:08
Understand the importance of teamwork and Jessica Pagula's leadership.
“I suspect she's helped in kind of fast tracking that feeling of settlement within this US team.”
Pagula's Commitment to the Billie Jean King Cup
28:08 to 29:44
Explore Jessica Pagula's dedication to the Billie Jean King Cup and her journey in American tennis.
“You know, like, you know, a couple of years ago, she played and won Seoul.”
Previewing Pagula vs. Paolini Matchup
29:50 to 31:35
Analyzing the head-to-head matchup between Pagula and Paolini ahead of the final.
“where we have a final to look ahead to the Billie Jean King Cup finals final.”
Tactical Insights and Predictions
31:35 to 35:46
Discussing strategies for both players and predicting the outcome of their matches.
“And I think the way they're both playing right now, I think this could be really, really close.”
Captains' Impact and Team Dynamics
35:46 to 40:52
Examining the roles of team captains and their influence on player performance.
“It was unless Rabakina's level drops, Pegula doesn't have a chance here.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:10Hello and welcome to the tennis podcast. It is Saturday the 20th of September. The Billie Jean King Cup finals semifinals have just been completed, which means there is just one stage to go in the crescendo of the 2025 competition. We're going to be talking about the semifinals today, looking ahead to the final. We're going to be doing it all with Matt and David because Matt has been good enough to squeeze a podcast into his schedule ahead of the football. Very good of you to be here, Matt. Making a point by wearing your Fulham kit, of course. Places you'd rather be. Well, it's Derby Day, so had to be worn.
0:49But luckily, it was looking a little bit dicey for a second as Katie Bolter threatened to take Great Britain and the USA into a deciding match. But happily, I can be in two places at once, two of my favourite places on the podcast and at Craven Cottage all in one day. Yeah, today's podcast comes to you courtesy of the Jessica Bagula comeback. Matt has never been less Team GB than in the last 90 minutes Super coach David Law is here Hello David Yep, coached my son's under-14s to, well, I say coached I stood on the touchline and said, come on boys As we won 4-2, which is a rare occurrence As far as I can gather from tennis, David, that is what coaching is Yep, yeah, exactly Next one, next one boys, don't worry about that Next one.
1:45Yeah, yeah. I do a lot of that. Yeah, right here. So, yeah, I did that in the morning. And, yeah, I was torn because I, I mean, and it's not a sort of patriotic thing. Obviously, I guess I get a little bit of a rumbling in the stomach watching Britain and wanting them to do well because I'm British. But at the same time. You get hungry watching Great Britain? Well, you know, I get hungry most of the time, actually, if I'm still around too much. but I just I was kind of into the comeback and also I loved I've loved the competition of all of these ties I mean there's been really only one duffer of a tie which was the Britain against Japan one which wasn't that great but you know even in this even in the straightforward ones in terms of two zeros they've all had drama and intrigue and I really wouldn't have minded seeing doubles in this and at the same time I love the comebacks in these two rubbers that we had today.
2:46Yeah, we've had two great sets of semifinals. Today we had the USA beating GB 2-0, the doubles not needed, but two incredibly tight singles matches, won by Emma Navarro and Jessica Bagula, the USA reaching their first final of this competition since 2018. And yesterday we had Italy beating Ukraine, two rubbers to one. Marta Kostiuk beating Elisabetta Cotcioretto 6-2, 6-3. Then things just started happening. Jasmine Paolini coming back from 3-6, 2-4 down to beat Elina Svitolina and Sara Aranian and Jasmine Paolini teaming up in the doubles to beat Marta Kostiuk and Ludmilla Kitschenok. 6-2, 6-3 in the doubles to get them to yet another final.
3:37This tie had everything. Matt. I feel like I've taken a lot of flack on this podcast over the last couple of days and I would like to turn it back on you two and get you both to start. Are you in the silencing you're silencing the doubt? I really am. I want an apology from both of you for underestimating Jasmine Paolini. Oh come on she nearly got beaten again. I was that close from getting the bang on final. The word you're looking for, David. That close. Okay, I underestimated Jasmine Paolini again. I underestimated Jasmine Paolini. Thank you. Yeah. It keeps happening. Yeah, let's talk about this match, because this was the one, wasn't it?
4:24What an incredible tie. Well, incredible tie, but what an incredible match and rubber this was. The Jasmine Paolini comeback, the Alina Svitolina. I don't know. Was it a choke? It was certainly a tightening. It was certainly an uncomfortable watch in terms of the visible nerves, the very understandable visible nerves. But I personally think, I mean, maybe it's semantics, but I personally think choke is going too far. But you certainly saw all the evidence of how desperately she wanted it there. Writ large on her face and in her racket arm, she tightened up so badly, didn't she? And it was an anxious, it was a thrilling watch, but an incredibly anxious and tense watch as well.
5:18Yeah, I think if you had to pinpoint a moment, it would be the game when Svitolina was leading by a set and 4-2. And in that game, she hit a double fault and she missed a bit of a sitter of a volley on top of the net to help Paolini get the break back. And that was right at a time when Svitolina was just starting to move away from the incredibly impressive, bold, aggressive tennis that had got her in that winning position. You know, David's absolutely right. Like Svitolina was outplaying Jasmine Paolini here, serving really well and then just teeing off from the ground and put herself in that winning position.
6:02But yeah, at that moment, she started to not quite swing through the ball quite so strongly. And she started to drop the ball a bit short. And I think her feet got a little bit heavy. And you could see the angst on her face as the finish line was right there. But she knew that she was starting to get tight and get nervous. And simultaneously, Jasmine Paolini seized on that small bit of opportunity and stepped up and started going after her shots. and exhibiting a lot better body language. And it was those two things happening at once that really sort of turned this one around. But yeah, that game at 4-2, I think Svitolina will have a lot of regrets over it because she should have closed it and moved within one game of the match.
6:51But let Paolini in. And we've just seen Paolini do such incredible things in this competition. power Italy over the finish line and you know she'd literally come back from a from the same scoreline a set and four two down in the quarterfinals you know she was primed for that kind of comeback and once she got back into it Paolini she really did sort of take over and I think was was the deserving winner in the third set even though that third set had its incredible dramatic moments as well there was a almost 17 minutes hold of serve for paulini right at the start of the third set and she did come through it saving numerous break points and then she broke straight away in the very next game and i think that was a bit of a crusher for svitolina svitolina did recover that break eventually to to make it for all in the third set but then played a really poor game just to give the break back to paulini and allow paulini to serve it out so there were these there were these tight moments throughout this incredible contest with both of them just giving absolutely everything but i i do think it was a tightening as you say catherine of of svitolina which just opened the door for paulini and then she just ran right through it and you You had these opposing scenes, the absolutely irresistible joy of Jasmine Paolini and the crushing heartbreak, really, of Alina Svitolina.
8:28You know, how many chances is she going to have to be in that position to put Ukraine into the Billie Jean King Cup finals? We don't know that. That felt like the moment and it and it got away from her. And I think it felt particularly like the moment because, OK, Kostiuk had already won. A win for Svitolina would have put Ukraine through not needing the doubles. But because it's Arani and Paolini waiting in the doubles, it feels like the whole tie, kind of no matter who they're playing. That second singles feels like the whole tie. You know, Kostja Kichenok is a good doubles team that I thought they played pretty well and had their moments in the doubles.
9:16But Arani and Paolini are just a class apart. And I do. I mean, it's obvious, isn't it, that that's the difference maker. But it not only impacts the fact that they more often than not almost always win the doubles, but it impacts mentally the dynamics of the singles matches because it's Arani and Paolini waiting in the doubles who are, I'm not going to say foregone conclusion, not in the same podcast I'm having to fess up to underestimating Jasmine Paolini. But it's not far off, David. No, it makes me desperately want to see a deciding doubles between Arani, Paolini and any team involving Taylor Townsend, really.
10:00Because I think that she's about the only match that I could imagine that might find a way. But in this one, see, I don't view it as a choke. But certainly I agree with you that it was a tightening. And I think that that's understandable and acceptable in any match for you to have a moment where you're not quite as good as the rest of it. And that's what I think Svitolina had there. I think it was nerves induced. but it wasn't it wasn't much she didn't give her much to work with there I mean she was dominating that match I felt all week long that Paolini was hanging on just energy wise even though she's sort of she finds it within herself to get motivated and I mean she's always motivated but to get inspired and to get energetic when actually I think she's been really flagging a bit and struggling a bit for form and and just celebrating the the point she digs out well suddenly she found something that i haven't seen all tournament in from that 4-2 point onwards and yes there was that really long service hold at the start of the third set but all the way through i don't feel like svitolina just disappeared you know svitolina i thought was playing bloody tough tennis in that third set and asking all the right questions she was trying to go for a shot still she was staying in a lot of rallies lengthening them asking just about every type of question you can ask in a deciding set and i sort of thought sooner or later paulini's level is has got to dip here it just didn't and i just i i got a new level of respect for in that third set because of what she withstood and with it all on the line like that.
11:54She played her very best tennis of the tournament. Some of the best tennis I've seen her play all year in the third set of that semifinal. And you can take nothing away from her in that regard. I mean, yes, I think Svitolina gave her just that little bit of a door opening in the second set, but that doesn't do Paolini enough credit, really, for what she did. And then, you know, half an hour later when you you could very easily think the job's done and no she goes and joins up with irani and does another thoroughly professional job and kind of well she she's on the court and does her her side of the court and lets irani just take over the way she does um brilliant absolutely brilliant because i i didn't see it coming i mean for you know they're basically three sets to love down uh three games you know in terms of what kostiuk's just put up and to think that they've won it from there and they've kept doing it all week long.
12:52Yeah, I felt for Kostiuk because I thought, you know, she was absolutely locked in right from the start of her match against Elisabetta Cotcioretto, you know, didn't give her anything, had a real look in her eye, had a lovely blend when Kostiuk plays well in that she can really go after the ball and attack the ball, but she's also a great athlete and mover and she can defend well and make life tricky for a player like Coccioretto who can't really out hit her or outlast her so there was kind of nowhere for Coccioretto to go in that one and you know Costi puts them puts them 1-0 up and you know we wondered didn't we about does Paolini have a Svitolina problem I'd actually forgotten that she had match points at the French Open.
13:39I knew that match was close, but I'd forgotten just how close Paolini was to winning it. And I think that sort of demonstrated that, okay, there wasn't a huge match-up problem. I felt maybe some of it was maybe mental baggage, you know, because Paolini had won the first set in Australia and ended up losing. She'd won the first set in Paris and had match points and ended up losing. And then she loses the first set here. It's almost like the team environment, I think probably Gar being on the bench was helpful in that respect and just not allowing her to sort of get down on this matchup that she was still in.
14:16And she just kept believing. And, you know, we've explained how she turned the match around. So, yeah, it was it was really interesting seeing that dynamic that we've seen on tour or at the slams this year play out in a in a different competition with just a different set of circumstances. And I think those ended up kind of helping Paolini in this one. And yeah, Paolini and Irani in the doubles. I just can't, I can't get enough. How good was Irani? And like straight away, she was the best player on the court. You know, like I find it so interesting how a lot of the time you hear players say that singles players who've played singles that day, then coming into the doubles will be the sharp ones because they're seeing the ball really well and you know i thought costiuk and paulini played well in the in this doubles but irani having been on the bench the whole day was sharp straight away and is able to impose herself she's she's able to impose her her game but also her personality on a match in that like she really is like the leader of that team she's constantly shouting at Paolini in terms of instructing her whether to go for something or leave it or she's the one who says yours and mine.
15:34She's the real leader in that and she takes charge of the net with those incredible reactions. I love Paolini's top spin forehands that act as lobs in the doubles. She's not actually properly doing a lob. She's just hitting her top spin forehand a little bit higher than she normally would and it throws her opponents off the court with pace it's an incredibly devastating shot they continue to back up irani's serve incredibly effectively and i think the sharpness of irani was contrasted with a bit of a cold performance from kitchenock actually coming off the bench i thought she was the weak link overall in this in this one and yeah i'm absolutely with david i would love to see obviously the whole competition go down to the deciding doubles but take the competition out of it just the intrigue of have the u.s got a probably singles player and world number one doubles player combination that can trouble the the experience and the and the canny nature of of irani and paolini that i'm just desperate to see that tomorrow okay well before we we do more of a deep dive look ahead to the final.
16:50Let's talk about how Team USA got there. It's very fresh in our minds. We've just been watching it. They beat Team GB two rubbers to nothing. Emma Navarro beating Sonny Cartel from a set down, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. And Jessica Bagula by an almost identical scoreline beating Katie Bolter, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2. So Navarro-Cartell in particular, I thought, was a real surprise delight of a match, David. Yeah, I think there's something about Cartell's game that is quite tricky for the top players who haven't seen that much of it. And it is a bit different to everybody else who's around. There are a few players that hit the forehand like Cartell does, but they've kind of retired.
17:41you think of Ash Barty and you think of Caroline Garcia people who've got this heavy forehand which is hit with a very extreme grip that seems to hang on to the strings for a long time and therefore when it flights over the net it's not your normal ball it doesn't go in a straight line it doesn't go like an arrow like some of them do and then just drop this one just seems to rise, rise, rise and then sink like a stone at the end and you think, you mentioned earlier on to us Catherine you keep thinking the thing's going out and then it doesn't From the camera angle on the TV I'm watching thinking every time she strikes the forehand I'm like, oh it's going two feet long and then it just plops in foot and a half inside the baseline I'm sort of on the edge of my seat all the time when she's sitting forehand And then the thing is, when it hits the ground, it then leaps off the ground with extra on it as well.
18:43So I think it's a tough ball to play against. And she's actually a much better player than a ranking, I think, Cartel. And I think she probably didn't get the results that she might have expected after Wimbledon. And I dare say they're going to come. I think she's got more ahead of her. Navarro has not been playing that well really this this last few months and and I when I mean it's probably easier to say in hindsight and when you're watching it and she's a set down and she's losing that I was thinking actually you know I I wouldn't have minded having Hayley Baptiste in this in this match from an America point of view she's another one with a forehand a little bit like that sometimes she and she's got a bit more of a slap on the ball whereas I know Navarro's strokes the ball more um but i love the way navarro got back into it there was no panic and then there was actually quite a lot of time at the net and she was she was suddenly quickening things up and and kind of just i don't know whether this was a tactic that she cooked up with lindsey davenport or whether it was herself but i think she's a very clever match player that if things aren't going quite right she can find something else to do and you you better put her away because she's had a lot of three set wins in her career, I think.
20:04I can certainly think even just anecdotally about a lot of them this year. She just very cleverly turned that match around and sort of showed her top ten class, even though she's actually not at that ranking. Towards the end, she was showing why. And she's incredibly fit, isn't she? That's right. She seems as fresh and lively and on it and sort of up on the balls of her feet as much at the end of a match like that as at the beginning of it. But potentially even more so at the end. Like she seems to get stronger as a match goes on. Yeah, and that's something that I think in recent months, you know, we talk about her slight lack of form over these past few months.
20:50That has gone away a bit. She started the year with an incredible record in deciding sets, winning seven of her first nine this year. And that was backing up 21 of 31 she won last year. But in the last few months, she has started to lose these three set matches. But this week at the Billie Jean King Cup, they've just been in her image, haven't they? You know, gritting her teeth and coming through deciding set battles against Putin's saver and cartel today. And I loved this match. I thought it was so stylish. I think, you know, we've shouted out the cartel forehand. I think the other shot that she has, and Navarro has it as well, is a sliced backhand.
21:34It's quite rare, I think, on the WTA tour that you get two players so comfortable slicing their backhands. And it made for exchanges that you didn't really know when they were going to end. and combined with great athleticism, particularly Navarro, is such an efficient and sort of quiet mover on a tennis court, but really quick and agile. And they just kept turning defence into attack. And a lot of the time it was as a result of their sliced backhands, extending rallies, putting the ball in awkward spots. I just really liked the way they matched up against each other. And Cartel is clearly going through a developmental phase with her game.
22:13If you think back to the summer, she had that odd service motion when she was sort of putting her racket up high and then throwing the ball up after that. Well, she's got something more conventional service motion at the moment. But I think she's trying to make some gains in that shot. And I think that would be something that could potentially take her up another level. Because from the back of the court, OK, she's not got explosive power, but she's got enough power. and she's got the combination of the topspin forehand and the slice backhand. The topspin backhand's pretty good too. She was hitting that down the line really well, I thought, today.
22:51So there's definitely a really good player in there with Cartel. But credit to Navarro, as you said, for sticking in there, turning it round. I think Cartel played a couple of poor games after getting the third set back on serve. She just went away a little bit, It just slightly fell apart and that was enough for Navarro to really close it out. But yeah, I thought this was a really enjoyable match to watch. I just liked the way they came up against each other stylistically. I would like to see it again. In terms of the second rubber of this tie, Pagula against Bolta, when we previewed it a couple of days ago, we talked about how Bolter had got a win over Jessica Paguda at United Cup last year and I said, hmm, but that was peak Katie Bolter and we haven't seen peak Katie Bolter for a while.
23:48In fact, she's been far, far from it for quite a while now. Well, for a set today, we saw that Katie Bolter and more potentially. It was so good in the first set from Bolter that it just inevitably felt unsustainable. David, it was almost too good like, oh well you can't keep this up and she didn't drop off a cliff at all she stayed competitive but she dropped off enough and Pagula upped her level enough that the tables turned completely. Yeah, it's a bit of a high wire act for Katie Bolter because she's almost having to try to play like Elena Rabakina and she's just not as good as Elena Rabakina And that's not to diss her.
24:36I mean, Rebecca is just an absolutely top draw player when she's at her best. And she does it without needing to extend the very limits of her game, whereas Bolter is having to hit out, particularly on the forehand, but she was also cracking the backhand. But the moment the ball was on her forehand, she was trying to pretty much end rallies or put herself in total charge of them. And if you think of it, that's her game at its limits. It's also in perfect circumstances, indoors, her type of court, Billie Jean King Cup, where she's played, I would say, the best tennis I've seen her play overall.
25:13This was pretty much as good as it can get, I think, for Bolter. And she needed time to run out on Pegula. pagula and pagula just needed to dig in and find a way to not be losing uh before she kind of got to grips with with the game and got her own game working and that's what she managed you know it's scrappy at the start of the second set that could very easily have gone straight sets if she'd allow if she'd have allowed it but that's totally in keeping with what we've seen because and i should say that's what happened against rebecca you know it was just she just could never get into the match but here she's playing a player not of that level so she was able to just hang around keep it scrappy and that's what's been happening all the way through these matches throughout the ties is people have been turning matches around by just sticking in and shows how how you can do that if you can get into a best of three set match there is enough time it's just that sometimes people are cold um i i was impressed with both um i think bolter she can't really have too many regrets there i think she approached it in just the right way she had to swing and connect and she did those things to get a lead but pagula she she gave credit to navarro actually as as as the player that she just watched turn a match around like that and um and she did she virtually did the same thing um yeah good good tie and and i and i think the winners make sense you know the 2-0 makes sense when you look at the respective rankings she um she strikes me as like perfect for a team environment jessica bagula a very i imagine she's a very galvanizing force in that u.s team i mean obviously she's played a lot of doubles in her career that is a team version of the sport but she's also don't think she's a big ego is she even though she's the the leader of that team um she's she's experienced but but well she's incredibly experienced um she just seems like somebody that can get along with everybody and create a good vibe almost a kind of sub captain to to Lindsay Davenport kind of a kind of a role And with a team like the US, whose problem has not been lack of talent, it's been being less than a sum of their parts, not not feeling like a cohesive, settled team.
27:46I suspect she's helped in kind of fast tracking that feeling of settlement within this US team. Yeah, I think that's a really good way of putting it and describing her qualities as a person, which will contribute to this team in addition to her qualities as a player. And I was also thinking, you know, like kind of a big deal for her to be playing Billie Jean King Cup this week rather than Seoul. You know, like, you know, a couple of years ago, she played and won Seoul. her mother was born in Korea I think it was a big deal for her to go to that event and play it and she didn't play it last year having reached the US Open final and there being that quick turnaround but given she's playing this week I think it would have been pretty understandable if she wanted to go and play in Seoul I think that tournament has a real connection for her or she has a connection with it but no she's at the British Inking Cup she's she's put her hand up for this i think she's basically said she'll play singles and doubles you know like if it does go to a deciding doubles match i'd be surprised if pagula is not out there you know with with townsend so she's giving absolutely everything and yeah she's just been that sort of constant presence in american tennis over the over the past five years or so you know I feel like a lot of other players have had bigger highs.
29:20You know, we've seen Grand Slam champions from the US and they've not been Pagula. But kind of all of those players have had probably bigger lows than Pagula's had. So it kind of feels fitting that Pagula is the one who is there and helping guide the US back to a final. And now, you know, the question is whether she can get them over the line. Okay, that's it for part one. We'll answer that question. In part two. Welcome back to part two of today's tennis podcast, where we have a final to look ahead to the Billie Jean King Cup finals final. Love it. Love it when the name is catchy. Championship match.
30:03Between Italy, the defending champions. So bad. Just call it the Billie Jean King Cup final, people. I know. Yeah. Why do they have to make it difficult? I'm going to from now on, David. David, I was just ticking that box. Italy against the USA. Now then, we know it's going to be, unless somebody picks up an injury overnight or something, we know it's going to be Pagula against Paolini in terms of the number one players. Jessica Pagula, David, has a 5-0 head-to-head against Jasmine Paolini. So would it be overestimating Paolini to suggest that she might win this match. 5-0. You've got to include the caveat.
30:52I have got to include the caveat. I was just going to let it sink in for David and for any listeners. The caveat is that they haven't played since 2023. Okay, that doesn't count. And 2023 was back when that was the good rule. That was when I was allowed to underestimate her. Right. But it's not nothing. and it's all straight sets it's not nothing it doesn't make any sense to me game wise though when I think of those two players that doesn't make any sense to me not that I don't think Pagula would win a fair share, to me they're very evenly matched and maybe Pagula would have a slight advantage, look at her ranking has been higher overall in recent years but that is not a ball that I look at and think oh Jasmine Paolini can't handle that ball you know, that's not what I'm looking at when I see them as tennis players that having been said I probably would have been a little surprised to and until I unless I knew about it about the Svitolina head-to-head you know and and Paolini struggles with that one because whilst yes I am the absolute arch culprit of underestimating Jasmine Paolini in terms of when it comes to predicting who's going to win And as a player, just watching her, I think her game stands up against most players.
32:13So it's a curious one. And I think the way they're both playing right now, I think this could be really, really close. I don't know what you two think. I mean, I don't see either of them. It's not a prediction, is it? Well, who do I think is going to actually win? Well, I think I'm going to go for Paulini, I think. because I think we're going to get the doubles. Maybe I just want the doubles so much that I'm making that happen in my head, but I don't think this is going to be straightforward. I can't see this final being straightforward. I think we're going to get that doubles and I don't think Italy will win the other one.
32:53So I'm going to go with Paolini. The other one, again, barring injury, I think we're going to see Emma Navarro, aren't we? She's given absolutely no reason to think that she should or could be dropped for this. She's 1-0 against Elisabetta Cotciareto. She's never played Lucia Bronzetti. Do you think it will be Cotciareto? And do you think Cotciareto has much of a chance here? Do you think we're going to see the doubles, Matt? It's a lot of questions. I think it probably will be Cotillareto I think it would be a big call to change it now I know that Italy have changed their number two player at past editions of the Billie Jean King Cup finals they're not averse to doing that but I think they've done it in the final I think that would be a bit of a move I must say that I wasn't that impressed with Cogcioretto against Kostiuk.
34:01It kind of goes to what you were saying, Catherine, about, you know, a known, what was it? A known known versus an unknown, you know. That's a Donald Rumsfeld thing, isn't it? I think they'll go Cogcioretto. But whoever they play, I think they'll lose, to be honest. I think Navarro will win that, whoever she plays. I'm not going to underestimate Jasmine Paolini. You won't. You simply won't catch me doing that. So I'm going. Does that mean we're going to get the doubles? So we're going to get the doubles. I have to say, I think for Pagula, it will be a bit of a relief not to. Like, I know Paolini is a great striker of the ball.
34:47I think it will be a bit of a relief not to face someone in the mould of Rebecca and Owen Boulter as she's played in the last couple of days, who I think she's been a bit rocked by the way they've been able to take the racket out of her hand. She was frustrated today, Pergoula. And look, she turned it around impressively. But Paolini's not going to quite do that. It's going to be much more of a battle, really, I think. Yeah, it must be a not enjoyable feeling to be waiting for your opponent's level to drop, to feel like, I need to passively wait for something in order to win this match. There's a lot more to it than that.
35:35She raised her level. I felt like she got Bolton moving a bit more. Once Bolton's level did drop, she was very canny in how she exploited that. It's not as simple as that, but equally, I mean, it was as simple as that against Rabakina. It was unless Rabakina's level drops, Pegula doesn't have a chance here. And honestly, in that first set against Bolton, It must have felt quite similar for Pagulo, who, given her ranking is so much higher than Bolta's in her pedigree, that's got to be a slightly startling feeling. And I think she also needed Bolta's serve to fall off, as it did. I think Bolta's first serve percentage went down into the 30s in that second set, which really allowed Pagulo to make a lot more returns.
36:18And she'll be able to do that against Paolini. it's not really a tennis thing i agree with david like i think this version of paulini you know post 2023 paulini up against pagula to me they would be splitting matches you know like they they would have an even head-to-head i can't i can't really having not seen the matchup come up with a obvious tennis reason why i would favor one over the other I fall back on Billie Jean King cut vibes, Paulini, the way we've seen her constantly step up. I just think she's got one more, one more in her. And I think she takes it to the doubles. She might need to have two more in her, Matt, to actually win.
37:08One and a half, one and a quarter. Yeah, Irani can do the rest.
37:15Anyone want to change their prediction? David, you've got the US. Matt, you've got Italy. I think I'm still going to go the US overall because I'm just stubborn. That's half of my problem is I just refuse to accept that I wasn't right at the start because I was so close to being right and I thought, wouldn't it be great if I was right? But I wasn't.
Read the full transcript
37:40I think I'm going to stick with the US because I think they might do it in the singles. But if it goes the doubles, I would pick Italy. Oh, interesting. So I'm going Italy in the doubles. Catherine, you're going US in the singles. And David's going US in the doubles. I'm going US, right? I mean, I think that they could do it both ways. But I don't feel strongly that they're going to win it that way. but... So you're underestimating Paolini in the singles again? I'm going to go in the doubles, but I think straight sets is possible too. I think that's it, right? The US have got two routes. I think the US can win it in the singles and they can win it in the doubles.
38:32I don't see Italy winning it in either one. And it's quite interesting. The US... The person we're underestimating here is Elisabetta Cotteretto. That's for sure. And honestly, who's going to come out and give a Pagula. She's going to give a Wimbledon Pagula performance now and just make everybody look like fools. Yeah, she'd way prefer to play Pagula than Navarro. It's quite interesting how the US as a team do negate those strengths of Italy. You know, like what gets Italy through is knowing they can rely on Paolini and then knowing they can rely on Paolini in Irani. Well, they're actually up against a team who pretty much can match them in those two matches and are better in the number two singles.
39:19So I do think the US are favourites here. I do think if you just sort of look at it, like they've got more of a chance in more of the matches. So I do think the US are favourites, but I'm going to go Italy. Can I just give a word for the captains as well? I mean, we've talked a little bit about Davenport and I just get the sense that she could figure out strategy and ways to talk to people to get the best out of them. But also Tatiana Garbin, I don't know what she's saying, right, but just the way she reacts to things makes me feel that she's totally in tune with what's required at any given moment.
40:02Her reaction, at one point she kind of reacted and turned around to the crowd and the support team and sort of went, come on, get into it. That's the point to get into it on because she's just produced a world and you lot need to be up was the gist of it. And I thought, here's somebody who really gets what captaincy's about. There's a way to get the vest out of people and there's a way to approach things in a certain way and I think she's just got it. And I think the Italian team really play for her. You know, she's been the captain for a few years now. She had some real health struggles in that time as well.
40:44And, you know, I think there's been a real togetherness in that team playing for her and wanting to do it for her. And yeah, like like you, David, I can't understand the Italian, but I've been in a few press conferences with her where she's spoken in English and she has a way with words, even in English, which isn't, you know, she's not that confident speaking English, but she's still able to get across real meaning and emotion in the way she speaks. And yeah, I think they're a great unit and she's a big, big part of the Italian success in this competition over the last few years. OK, we will see tomorrow, won't we?
41:30We'll be back with a podcast after tomorrow's Billie Jean King Cup final. Our podcast will be at 8pm UK time. We'll be live on YouTube. I expect Billie Jean will make quite a cameo, as she has done in today's show, if you've been watching on YouTube, because she keeps hearing her name. She's like, they're making a podcast about me. So that'll be live tomorrow, 8pm on YouTube. And of course, it will be available as a podcast, as normal, as well. Hello to our mascots, Phoebe, Maisie and Roger. Hello to our top folks and executive producers, Greg, Chris and Jeff. shout outs have been mysteriously removed from the agenda today because Matt has got a football game to get to.
42:15So we'll let him do that. We'll say thank you to The Athletic. We are part of The Athletic Podcast Network. Make sure you watch the Billie Jean King Cup final tomorrow if you possibly can and do join us for a podcast at the end of it all. Thanks for listening. We'll speak to you then.
From the publisher
Catherine, David and Matt react to a a couple of enthralling semi-final ties as Italy and the United States booked their spots in Sunday’s final.
Part one - Semi-finals review. We start by covering Italy’s dramatic comeback to beat Ukraine. There’s an apology for underestimating Jasmine Paolini, analysis of how the match devastatingly slipped away from Elina Svitolina, and praise for Sara Errani’s leadership in the decisive doubles. Turning our attention to USA’s victory over Great Britain, we discuss how both Emma Navarro and Jessica Pegula came back from a set down to see off impressive performances from Sonny Kartal and Katie Boulter.
Part two - Final preview (starts 29m50s). Will Italy stick with Elisabetta Cocciaretto? How much can we read into Pegula’s 5-0 head-to-head over Paolini? And do the United States have a doubles team which could stop Errani and Paolini? We get stuck into it all and give our predictions!
We will be live on YouTube at 8pm UK time on Sunday to review the Final.
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