In short
Galaxy Brains episode mixing macro market updates (Fed/FOMC, White House digital-asset policy report) with a Bitcoin bull thesis from Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wertheimer, plus a debate inside Bitcoin dev culture about “OP_RETURN”/“OPERATOR” upgrades and “knots” (alternate Bitcoin Core implementations).
Guests and backgrounds
- Udi Wertheimer: customer support intern at Taproot Wizards; co-founder; Bitcoin/ordinals community figure; argues Bitcoin supply dynamics and “treasury” strategies.
- Bimnet Abibi: Galaxy Trading; discusses markets and macro.
Host
Alex Thorne (Galaxy Brains).
Key claims (Udi)
- “Bitcoin will retire your bloodline”: Bitcoin is under-owned; selling is nearing its tail end as institutions/ETFs and MicroStrategy-like buyers “vacuum” supply.
- Bitcoin can rise far beyond common targets; he stakes a “400K this year” view.
- Dogecoin’s “mindfuck” pattern shows how retail can accumulate unnoticed for a long time, then trigger a later step-up; Bitcoin could repeat on a larger scale.
- “Knots”/OP_RETURN governance debate is mostly “gossip” and practically irrelevant because fees are low and changes aren’t meaningfully stopping usage.
Notable examples
- Dogecoin: Elon’s 2019 tweets; Robinhood/TikTok “Dogecoin challenge” retail accumulation; later “first mindfuck” and subsequent broader phenomenon.
- ETFs: claims they “barely let go” of Bitcoin; MicroStrategy “black hole” buying.
- Bitcoin Core vs knots: Udi says OP_RETURN limit changes aren’t live yet; even before release, miners/pools can enable oversized non-standard transactions.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOBitcoin and Market Insights
0:45 to 3:01
Discussion on Bitcoin's potential and market developments from the Fed meeting.
“this trade will retire your entire bloodline.”
FOMC Meeting Overview
3:01 to 4:19
Bimnet Abibi discusses the outcomes of the FOMC meeting.
“Let's go now to our friend Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading.”
Economic Indicators and Inflation
4:19 to 6:25
Analysis of economic indicators, inflation concerns, and implications for the Fed's policies.
“They're worried about kind of the employment picture a little bit.”
Fed Independence and Fiscal Issues
6:25 to 7:40
Discussion on the Fed's independence and its relation to fiscal dominance and debt management.
“And so is there a real need to cut in advance of, you know, pass through of the tariffs?”
Market Reactions to Fed Decisions
7:40 to 9:00
Exploration of how the market, including Bitcoin and equities, reacted to the Fed's decisions.
“Is what the payments, head of payments or governor for payments or something like that?”
Valuations and Market Dynamics
9:00 to 14:00
Discussion on market valuations, uncertainty around tariffs, and bullish sentiment in the market.
“And then what are you going to do about that?”
Market Trends and Tariff Impacts
14:00 to 18:08
Discussion on current market trends, retail investment behaviors, and tariff impacts.
“you're adding$300 billion in market cap over figures that measure the span of three months' performance.”
The Bitcoin Market Perspective
18:39 to 21:00
Udi shares insights on Bitcoin market dynamics and predictions.
“I'd love to ask you about your thoughts on these.”
The Psychology of Bitcoin Holders
21:01 to 24:48
Exploration of the mindset of Bitcoin holders and their selling behaviors.
“Well, because in the early years, I remember joking around with my friends many years ago about Bitcoin being this asymmetric bet where it either goes to zero or 10K.”
Lessons from Dogecoin's Rise
24:49 to 28:06
Analysis of Dogecoin's unexpected rise and its implications for Bitcoin.
“So if any of the institutions have hopes of actually de-Bitcoinizing one day and removing it from their portfolio, they'll need like a very big move for that.”
Show all 22 chapters
The Dogecoin Phenomenon and Market Dynamics
28:06 to 36:25
Explore the unexpected rise of Dogecoin and its implications for crypto dynamics.
“Basically, you would just take screenshots of yourself buying some Doge and do a little dance.”
The Quantum Computing Debate in Crypto
36:25 to 42:00
Discuss the potential threats of quantum computing to Bitcoin and other cryptos.
“guys don't know how to do this right yet like you you because literally nobody has been paying attention at all.”
Concerns About Quantum AI and Bitcoin Governance
42:00 to 43:38
Discussion on the perceived risks of quantum AI affecting Bitcoin governance.
“AI will be able to tell us if it's possible or not.”
The Emergence of Alternative Bitcoin Implementations
43:38 to 46:58
Exploring the movement towards alternative Bitcoin implementations and debates around governance.
“I don't have good visibility into it, but I don't feel like it's a huge concern for people.”
Debating Bitcoin's Transaction Use Cases
46:58 to 50:32
Analyzing the discussions about Bitcoin transactions deemed as spam and the implications.
“It'll be in a future Bitcoin core release.”
Cultural Shifts in the Bitcoin Community
50:32 to 53:04
Examining the changes in the Bitcoin community's culture and participant demographics.
“You know, we talked about this a lot two years ago when we started Top of Wizards.”
The Urgency of Acquiring Bitcoin
53:04 to 55:50
Discussing the increasing urgency for companies to acquire Bitcoin and the challenges they face.
“It's just like it's kind of like it's working.”
Updates on Taproot Wizards
55:50 to 56:00
Udi shares the latest developments and products from Taproot Wizards.
“Whereas with the other ones, I don't think anyone feels any sense of urgency to buy Hyperliquid or Solana or Athena before they all run out.”
Discussion on ETH Urgency and Taproot Wizards
56:00 to 56:32
Explore the current sentiment around ETH urgency and the latest from Taproot Wizards.
“And it might be the case in the future after these treasury companies operate and excel for five years.”
Launch of Taproot Wizards NFT Collection
56:32 to 57:03
Learn about the unusual launch of the Taproot Wizards NFT collection and its reception.
“Because we haven't seen any new – you've got the two collections, right?”
Future Developments and Bitcoin Technology
57:03 to 57:57
Discuss the future plans for Taproot Wizards and the technology behind them.
“I'm going to set up another podcast with you for the announcement for the next thing.”
Excitement for Upcoming Projects
57:57 to 58:20
Anticipate what Taproot Wizards might unveil next and the excitement around it.
“So, well, I guess you're not sharing yet, which I understand.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Alex Thorn:Welcome to Galaxy Brains.
0:25Alex Thorn:Welcome back to Galaxy Brains. As always, I'm your host, Alex Thorne, head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy. Bitcoin, not zero. We have a great episode for you this week. Udi Wartimer, customer support intern at Taproot Wizards, I think also co-founder. He joins us. He's back. It's his second appearance on the show. We're going to talk about his thesis about how this, it's called, this trade will retire your entire bloodline. He thinks Bitcoin is going much higher this year. We'll talk about why and what his thesis is. We'll also discuss recent debate and drama inside the Bitcoin development community over Opratern, new upgrades.
1:00Alex Thorn:And we'll talk a little bit about what they're planning for Taproot Wizards going forward. We'll also check in with our good friend Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading, as always, to talk about markets. Big day today. The Fed had their FOMC meeting. Jay Powell announcing they're holding rates steady. Unchanged, but it was a rather hawkish meeting. Though there were two dissenters among the Fed board. The first time since 1993 that there have been two dissenters. Quite interesting. We're also going to debate, Bimnet and I, a little bit about what markets look like going forward. Bimnet with a rather specific prediction that I think you won't want to miss.
1:36Alex Thorn:And before we get to that, I'd like to remind you to please refer to the link to the disclaimer in the podcast notes and note that none of the information in this podcast constitutes investment advice or an offer, recommendation, or solicitation by Galaxy or any of its affiliates to buy or sell any securities. Also a huge day today with the White House releasing their white paper from the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. Recall, this was the creation of a January 23rd executive order, one of the first executive orders signed by President Trump to create this working group. And they just dropped a 165-page banger on the market with extensive overview and data about cryptocurrency and digital asset markets and also hundreds of predictions.
2:20Alex Thorn:I believe over 115, not predictions, policy recommendations. I believe 115 of them spanning things like tax, mining, staking, DeFi, AML, and the like. We will have more info on this at Galaxy Research. And also, by the way, check out big reports we put out. Just dropped a huge one on digital asset treasury companies. We are calling them DATCOs. Spread the word. They are not DATs. They are not treasury companies. They are DATCOs. Great report. from Will Owens on our team that we just released. And I also just published our Q2 crypto VC report. Check all of that out on galaxy.com slash research.
2:59Alex Thorn:Let's hop right into the show. Let's go now to our friend Bimnet Abibi from Galaxy Trading. As always, Bimnet, welcome to Galaxy Brains. Thanks for having me. We have a FOMC meeting today. We did have one. So we have a Fed Day. And I know it's not as important to you, but we also have the White Whitehouse's Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets Report released. I did not have enough time to read that. Did anyone? Not yet. It's 165 pages. Whereas, you know, you're more used to, you know, on the other side of the coin here. Bullets and charts. Or a one-page statement, FOMC statement.
3:35Alex Thorn:What did that say and what happened at the Fed today? Yeah. I mean, basically, the Fed kept rates unchanged. You know, they changed some of their language around growth. But the main takeaway was that Powell was reasonably hawkish during the press conference. You know, two-year yields, you know, went from like 387 to the 395 on the announcement. So a backup of eight basis points like intraday. The dollar went very bid. You know, euro kind of testing that 114 area. Gold came off a ton off, you know, 1.7 % on the day. And so, you know, it kind of seemed like the messaging was risks are kind of balanced on both sides of their mandate.
4:22They're worried about kind of the employment picture a little bit. But again, the labor market seems better. It seems like it's in balance is what Powell is saying, because you've had supply come down because of immigration, but you've also had demand go down. So like you're still kind of at a reasonable equilibrium. There's some concerns about growth. Q1 GDP wasn't that great, especially on the consumption side, but Q2 figures were pretty solid and they came out today. However, the inflation side of the mandate, they're still very far away. Right. Core PCE, I think, is around two seven and the Q2 core PCE figures came in higher than expected.
5:10And you still haven't gotten through tariffs. And there's a ton of highlighted some tariff stuff in his remarks.
5:17Alex Thorn:Right. Yeah. I mean, he basically said, you know, it could be a one time, you know, pass through. But the baseline level of inflation like pre these tariffs is still above target. And so they have a lot of work to do on the inflation front still. And so it seems like Powell is in no need or no rush to cut. The September meeting is live. You still have a decent amount priced for that meeting.
5:49However, there's really no need to cut rates right now.
5:52Alex Thorn:That's pretty much what he's saying, right? There's no impetus to actually cause us to. If anything, we need to keep them because inflation is above target. Correct. They even made one comment about inflation figures could easily justify hiking, potentially. And so the market didn't react. So this is a hawkish. This was a hawkish press conference. And if you think about it, housing market's at an all-time high. Equity markets are at an all-time high. Unemployment's relatively low. Growth is coming in okay. The economy is chugging along just fine. And so is there a real need to cut in advance of, you know, pass through of the tariffs?
6:34Like, no. Right. And so there's a lot of folks that are calling for no cuts this year. You know, and there's about like forty five ish basis points priced out to the December meeting. Almost two. Yeah, almost two. The one interesting thing was you did have two dissenters, Michelle Bowman and Waller. And it's unprecedented from the standpoint of you haven't had two dissenters since 1993. Really? And so it is notable. However, when Powell was asked about it, he basically said, we're still friendly. It was based on ideas and people can disagree on their interpretation of the data.
7:25Alex Thorn:Still, though, first time there's been two since 1993. That does stand out. That does stand out. Bowman I'm going to ignore because she's less of a classical economist and I think has less weight on the Federal Reserve versus Waller. Is actually more of an economist. Is what the payments, head of payments or governor for payments or something like that? I don't know. He's got like some specific position. But point being is, you know, Waller is potentially interviewing for Powell's job. This is kind of what I was going to ask. To what extent do you think the dissents are related to the president's lampooning of Powell?
8:07It's hard to, you know, determine what percent of that, you know, caused him to, you know, be more dovish. I would tell you, though, that even with the new Fed chair, you still have 12 board of governors. You still have to get consensus on the Fed board to actually do something. And it's not going to change how the market's going to react to things. That was the other thing.
8:34Alex Thorn:We talked about this last week a bit that, I mean, let's be real. The facts and circumstances aren't going to change much. So like, OK, maybe slightly more dovish. But the reality is like, you know, inflation is where it is, right? Like, yeah, there's only so many ways to play this thing. Correct. And it's like, you know, if the Fed's too aggressive and, you know, they move too quickly by too much. Right. The market's going to react like the dollar will sell off like the yield curve will steepen a ton and inflation expectations will move up a lot. And you'll see asset markets rip. Right. And that'll cause more inflation.
9:11And then what are you going to do about that? You're going to have to re-accelerate rates.
9:18Alex Thorn:The other question I had for you, too, is let's say we do cut rates. The world doesn't want our debt that much like they had in the past, at least. There's a relative net reduction in demand for U.S. debt, I think, is pretty obvious. Would yields actually come down that much? I think the back end of the curve, what you're most likely going to see is a twist steepening of the yield curve, where the front end, which trades is literally a function of where overnight interest rates are expected to be. That would come down. That would come down because the Fed is literally cutting rate. But you're not likely to see mortgage rates, which are much more tied to the 10 and 30 year, right?
9:56Correct. So those actually might go up because inflation expectations on a go-forward basis might go up.
10:02Alex Thorn:Correct. So that's the funny – the interesting thing to me because one of the things the president is – one of the justifications he's making, I think he just posted today about it, is that let the people refinance their mortgages. Let the people – but it's not clear that mortgages are really going to come meaningfully down. Correct. Right. And so, you know, but the other point is, and this was very notable, you know, when Powell was asked about the government reducing their net interest expense, like, he brushed that off, right? His mandate is not to help the government finance its debt. Yeah.
10:38It's to control inflation and maximize full employment and, you know, financial stability stuff.
10:44Alex Thorn:Here's another thing. We debated Fed independence last week, which is not much of it. I mean, mostly, you know, we're making some adjacent points. I think we mostly agree anyway, but that's an interesting point about when the U.S. government will one day on this trajectory face a truly existential problem about paying for that. I mean there's a possibility we could – 100 percent of the GDP could have to go to debt. I mean like the rate we're going one day – I don't have to do the math on that, but right? GDP will grow. Not GDP, sorry. The budget. 100 percent of the budget might have to go to paying off the debt.
11:14Alex Thorn:Like one day that's possible. And in that spot, rates absolutely – you have to inflate your way out of it and your rates have to be zero. But to your point, that's not in the Fed's mandate. So like this is another – there's sort of an inevitable destruction of Fed independence if we don't solve the fiscal because one day the Fed will have to lower, right? Fiscal dominance. It will ruin the – it will be fiscal dominance and it will ruin the Fed's independence. Right. Right. And Powell may... The president would have to, whomever that is at that point, would basically for the possibility of running the government, would have to install a Fed chair that would keep rates low in order for the government to be able to pay.
11:51No, I mean, the real answer to that question is, you know, the Fed would need to start printing money to buy the debt. Right. Right. It literally needs to monetize the debt. Yeah. Which is inflation. Correct. Yeah. And it should be, you know, yeah, it's going to be very inflationary. Not the best. Not the best. But, you know, to that point, though, Powell, you know, highlighted this fact well is that Fed independence has served the U.S. really well over time. And it has served the rest of the world really well over the past century, basically. And he sees no reason to disturb that Fed independence now, which means that he is committed to staying the full length of his term if he is able.
12:34I see.
12:35Alex Thorn:That's signaled for that. Correct. Yeah. I would say, though, you're not going to expect a Fed chair to ever say that the Fed shouldn't be independent. But he is not – that doesn't mean he's wrong. I think he probably is right there. But also, like, you're never going to hear anything other than that on that question from a Fed chair. Correct. Yeah. But he is right. He's right. The Fed independence has helped over the long run. I think my favorite point that you had made to me when I was complaining about this arrangement last week was that do we really think the elected representatives in Congress would be better at managing monetary policy?
13:10Alex Thorn:That I'm not prepared to say. Yeah, exactly. Not prepared. Right. And you've got a president talking about cutting rates with 300 basis points. Right. So we had the non-cut, non-anything in some hawkish language. It said gold sold off. Bitcoin looked like it had sold off a little. It did sell off. It went down, I saw, on 115s at one point during that reaction. Yeah. Equities, they came off too? Are people... They came off. The S &P was off like 50 bips on the day, and then you had really strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft, and you're roaring right back. Yeah. But again, it is staggering. Just think about the math, right?
13:53The math is, let's say Microsoft's worth$3 trillion. I could be off by whatever the current market cap is. But when it moves up 8%, 10%, you're adding$300 billion in market cap over figures that measure the span of three months' performance. That's a lot. And I do get the sense that, and you've had a lot of these sell-side shops move up their S &P year-end targets closer to 7 ,000 high sixes and stuff.
14:25Alex Thorn:Wow, so there's a lot of bullishness out there in the south side? There's a lot of bullishness, but I think they're just catching up, and that's what they're forced to do. But again, valuations are really high, and there's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs. And these moves are just like, what's going on? No, no, it's crazy, though. It would be 150 times Saylor's most recent buy in small moves. I mean, that's what you deal with. One quarter's worth of performance. Yeah, when you deal with big numbers. How do you extrapolate that much out? And this is the craziness that is the market right now.
15:04And that's not to say that it can't get crazier. Don't get me wrong. It just shows me, though, that you're probably closer to a top than a bottom. You're definitely moving closer to a top more broadly.
15:22Alex Thorn:Well, it just feels like people are just pouring money in again still. Correct. There was that great, if you were that retail conditioned to buy the dip in equities, then you did well for April 7th and all that stuff. Did well. I mean, retail has been buying all year, and we're at all-time highs. So retail is doing really well. Hedge funds are doing reasonably well as well. So what sends us higher? Is it just better, the outcomes resolving on tariffs? Inflation remaining low? Yes, we've already got that, right? Because what, we've got EU, is that for real? Is that locked in now? That's a real deal.
15:56Alex Thorn:That's a real deal. And then Japan's is done. It's not as good as it was advertised for, but it's pretty good, right? So we just need China, and he's guiding towards like China looks okay? Yeah. So you've got your, yeah. But again, like the effect of tariff rate is moving to 20%. And like that will be a tax on U.S. consumers. Yeah. If you don't pay more because the importers are passing on the tariff to the consumer, you might pay more because you're buying American, which is more expensive, right? So it's sort of six and one half dozen there. Yeah, so there's a lot of moving pieces. But I think the story in markets over the past week is you've had a massive correction in the dollar, right?
16:42You've seen euro go from like 117, 118.
16:45Alex Thorn:I saw that. DXY is up a fair amount over the last like 10 days or eight days. A ton. Yeah. And that's, again, that's more of a lot of it's a function of positioning. You know, the lazy, complacent trade in markets was to just be short dollars, you know, long gold, long equities, and short fixed income. And so you basically, over the past week going into, you know, the Fed, you know, you unwound a lot of these crowded positions with the exception of equities and crypto. And, you know, I think positioning is a little vulnerable. You know, if I had to chart a path for markets, you know, over the next, you know, two months, I think there's probably one last leg higher before, you know, kind of we stall out or move lower.
17:36But, you know, I think it's reasonable. You know, the treasury companies are still buying. You're still seeing strong ETF inflows. the regulatory backdrop is getting easier by the day. You had ETF in-kind creates and redemptions allowed for Bitcoin ETF, and I think ETH ETF as well today. That's right. And so I do think that there is a little bit of a setup for a continued squeeze higher in markets, but I do see markets stalling out over the course of the next month.
18:08Alex Thorn:Interesting. All right. Bim Netta Beebe from Galaxy Trading, thank you so much. Thanks for having me. let's go now to our guest udi wartimer customer support intern at taproot wizards udi welcome back to galaxy brains that's me thanks for having me so you were last here uh i would say shortly after the taproot wizards actually they didn't actually launch but shortly after you guys created taproot wizards yeah you were in the office yeah it was a while ago um and a lot has changed uh In crypto, in Bitcoin, in ordinals. I'd love to ask you about your thoughts on these. But first, just what is in your mind, what is the sort of most defining moment or characteristic of this moment in crypto markets in your mind?
18:54Man, I think everyone is under exposed to Bitcoin and crypto. That's my gut feeling. I think everyone is criminally under exposed. Everyone's trying to like – I think everyone has in their minds that Bitcoin is like, you know, bull case scenario. Bitcoin goes to like – I've heard some bulls talking about, yeah, you know, I think Bitcoin could go to like 130K, 140K by the end of the year. Like it's so bullish.
19:22Alex Thorn:Yeah. And I think they're out of their minds. Yeah. I mean because 125 is only a 10 % move away. Yeah. Sorry, 135. Sorry, 135 is only a 10 % move away. I think we have said 185, and I haven't updated that since December. What do you think now? I think I'm just holding firm at 185. I'm trying to be right, not overly bullish. I think that's well within reason. It could definitely go higher. I think it's too well within reason. Yeah, what do you think?
19:58I've put my stake in the ground. I told people I think we're going to 400K this year.
20:05Alex Thorn:What gets us there in your mind?
Read the full transcript
20:11I think – and you would know – you would have a better feel than I have if I'm completely bullshitting here or not. Neither do you. But I think most of those who wanted to sell already sold basically. basically um i actually it's actually kind of wild i've you know especially since i've been more kind of open public about it i've been getting a lot of messages from people about how how they regret having sold bitcoin a lot of like old-time bitcoiners that you think you know i'm not gonna name any names but there's a lot of people everyone thinks oh they're but There's an epidemic right now of Bitcoiners without Bitcoin.
20:55It's actually insane. It's wild. I've never seen that before. Well, because in the early years, I remember joking around with my friends many years ago about Bitcoin being this asymmetric bet where it either goes to zero or 10K.
21:14Alex Thorn:Right. That's what we would – and 10K, we're out. Right. Right. This is it. and um and so i think a lot of people did get out from from 10k to 100k yeah a lot of people actually did get out especially 100k is this beautiful round number right um i think yeah i think that makes sense i think you have like um you definitely do have old coins coming online there's been plenty of that um not like egregious levels historically speaking but But, you know, and it does feel and you're primarily and this your prediction comes from your piece. This Bitcoin thesis will retire your bloodline, by the way, which is pinned to Udi's profile on X.
21:58Alex Thorn:So check that out. We'll try to put it in the show notes. But you're mainly saying, too, that people in crypto are criminally underweight Bitcoin. Why is that? What are they trying to do? Well, I mean, I think they're trying to outperform, obviously. but also i think they just they just have these very low we we everyone's expectations from bitcoin has gotten like subdued over time right like we we just learned to accept like yeah a bullish cycle for bitcoin as bitcoin goes up 2x and um yeah i don't i don't think that's true I don't see why we would believe that. But there's two dominant conspiracy theories.
22:46One is there's been so many inflows into Bitcoin. And the reason the price has not gone up a lot is because it's all fake paper Bitcoin made up by Coinbase or whatever.
22:56Alex Thorn:Yeah, like derivatives markets or something. Yeah. Yeah. I don't buy that. Right. But a lot of people believe that. And the other option is that people have been selling. That is a very normal thing to do. Right. But the thing is, you cannot sell forever. That is the – and for the first time ever, I think, we have the clearest, most obvious data. We know that ETFs hold a lot more Bitcoin. They barely let go of any Bitcoin that they buy. and we know that microstrategy and all these other guys have barely ever sold any piece of bitcoin they ever got most of it is just a black hole so we know that they've been vacuuming up bitcoins so to me it means someone must have sold them those bitcoins right those people are not selling those bitcoins again right so i i just think um there's like there's um i think everyone got everyone is educated now that okay if there's uh people have these models i've been hearing about if there's a billion dollars worth of inflows that's going to translate into a thousand dollars higher in the price right and like no only if people are selling there right right so so i think we're like we're getting in my opinion i think we're probably getting to the tail end of people willing to sell i it just it just just i think we spent a lot of time here i think we've i i think the new buyers are not selling for 150k right no i just don't i don't see that um and it's not just a price question it's also just the quantities right You cannot unload that many Bitcoin on a small move.
24:52So if any of the institutions have hopes of actually de-Bitcoinizing one day and removing it from their portfolio, they'll need like a very big move for that. So, you know, this is – it's not going to end at$150. It's not going to end at$180 either, I don't think.
25:10Alex Thorn:And you made a good example here in your piece about Dogecoin and when Elon first started talking about it and how it had a first rip to, you know, six cents, six, eight cents, right? And crypto Twitter thought – First mindfuck. Yes, you call it the first mindfuck and crypto Twitter, you know, thought they were smart for catching the, you know, the two or three bagger. And then, of course, it went to 70 cents. and is that and is that the thesis here that sort of like the step up to like 100 and 120 is really just that first mindfuck here and that what's really i think it's not even the first mindfuck yeah okay so so what happened with doge that was really interesting um obviously on a much much smaller scale but um and of course you know as we all know since bitcoin is a much bigger asset And of course, the moves are going to be more subdued.
26:02But, you know, Doge did 100x in a few months. So Bitcoin is not going to do 100x, but I think it's going to do a lot.
26:15And what happened there was really interesting. I think in 2019 was the first time that Elon started tweeting about Doge. now doge at the time it was this kind of asset that you know crypto natives kind of play around with it try to catch like two three x moves um grow their bitcoin stack or whatever doing that repeatedly over time and so when elon talked about it and you know price did double whatever when he when he started talking about it everyone was very excited and as as crypto natives we just assume like that you know that's it that's the move um because that's that's what always happens with Doge.
26:53And we were excited about Elon paying attention to it, but I don't think people understood the magnitude of what that means over time. After he did that, over pretty much almost a year and a half from that tweet until the first Dogecoin mindfuck, what happened was retail was just accumulating Dogecoin the entire time. And none of us noticed, basically. That's basically what happened because Dogecoin was one of the seven assets on Robinhood at the time. Seven crypto assets, of course. It had boring ones like Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum Classic. Who cares about that? But Doge had a dog. So when Robinhood became popular during COVID and the stimmy checks and all of that and people gambling on GME and stuff like that, They were looking for other things.
27:52Dogecoin was like this obvious thing to direct energy into. And there was this huge trend on TikTok in 2020. They called it the Dogecoin challenge. Basically, you would just take screenshots of yourself buying some Doge and do a little dance. And that became a big trend. And the funny thing is we as crypto natives, we did not notice at all. because one, well, we don't pay attention that much to TikTok today either, but at the time we barely knew it existed. And Robinhood was something we were not paying attention to either. So this entire movement was kind of like completely out of our radar, I think, for the crypto native scene at large.
28:42And these guys were just buying up all the doge for a year. you know uh and and because it had elon it it it it had a staying power you know like we usually would start a train and like whatever it goes down after a week but it had like this kind of elon backing so it it they just ran with it for the entire year they just bought everyone's supply and when we got to the so-called first mindfuck in in i think it was late 2020 or very early 21 um i i you know i was talking to all my friends it turns out none of us had any doge anymore you know like right we were nobody had doge nobody right it was amazing you know it used to be this joke going that everyone would have some doge joke yeah but none of us had any right and we literally were completely blindsided we sold all of it to retail tiktok people and they wrote it on the first mind fuck right like 10x and and we are like taking a little like 2x trades on the way and we think we're some geniuses and then of course everyone assumes it's over because it was okay it was a 10x on size it was from a billion dollar market cap to 10 right at the time that was a lot so it was you know everyone assumes okay this is now for sure this is over but then it becomes an actual like global phenomenon like that after the first one then only then really everybody starts talking about it in the sense of like you you and i'm sure you remember that you you walk down the street you will overhear people talking about doge right right like it was it was this phenomenon so of course and every and again everyone is out of doge so of course it blows up again um so i think we are again obviously on a much larger scale but we're in kind of a similar situation where I think most crypto native people obviously we knew about the institutional stuff we knew about ETFs vacuuming up all the Bitcoin we knew about Michael Saylor buying up Bitcoin like crazy for the last five years we knew that it's going on but I think most crypto native people did not understand the dynamics of how it works.
31:02And only recently, I think only in the last, maybe even only in the last couple of weeks when Ethereum treasury companies started popping up, that's when CryptoNavis started paying attention to this meta at all. Before that, I think it was like, yeah, it's going on, but we don't understand it. It's probably nothing. So I think for that entire time, they've been buying out most of the non-believers, basically. A lot of the believers do.
31:32And I think we're just reaching that supply shock, basically. I think people were, like, kind of not paying attention.
31:38Alex Thorn:It is interesting. You know, we had that jump from, like, 110 to 123. I believe the all-time high on Coinbase is 123, 231, I think, 123. Roughly. I like to know what the specific all-time high was exactly at every given moment. You know, and that's a high number. It's almost$125K, but it's not that big a move from$110K in the scheme of things. I think it's fair to say we've been pretty stagnant since recovering from that April, you know, low of$74 ,500. So the question I guess people might have is when will the supply stop selling or be out of coins to sell? And when do we start to see a step up?
32:20Alex Thorn:You know, I don't know the answer to this. I don't know if you do either. It's very hard to know, right? It seems like it does have to happen, right? I mean, like Bitcoin, to me, it usually wants to go lower or higher. It very rarely stays the same for long periods of time. And so it does feel a bit to me like a beach ball being held underwater here. Like at some point, it's got to rocket higher, you know? I think so. I think so. You know, it's obviously impossible to tell tomorrow. as this one goes live, we might have another whale waking up and we might have a bunch of these coming online. But it feels like, to me, it feels like it's very likely to be the tail end of this.
33:04Even just due to the psychology of round numbers. I think most people did do the selling already. Right? Because it's just like, oh, 100K, cool.
33:15Alex Thorn:Yeah, if you were going to sell, It feels like you don't like – if you don't choose to sell it like 108, 110 or 100, what, like 118 is your number? Like it's just kind of strange to think about. Yeah, yeah. Now, of course, there are other reasons that people sell. It's not always like some price target. Sometimes there's whatever other reason and those things will keep happening. But yeah, I don't – just bigger picture, I think that the – what is the bet that bears are making exactly, right? Like, are you betting that... That's a great question. ...Sailor is going to stop coming up with ways to raise capital?
33:56Are you thinking he's going to slow down? Like, are you thinking Trump is going to...
34:04Alex Thorn:Ban Bitcoin? What is the bet? Right. Right. Like, I mean, it seems like... That's a great point. Like, what is the negative catalyst that would cause, like, some kind of material decrease right like a shaking of confidence when and to your point you know on the doge thing like do we we don't have tick tocks being made about bitcoin right now in fact most people feel like i i know this is said widely i don't think it's entirely true but most people think that retail is not really even interested in bitcoin at the moment yeah so yeah so i think in in i think in this scenario it's it's both mostly been institutional capital that has been playing the retail tech talk them apart right cycle right um but i do think that even though even though we've we've obviously we've all been aware of it and you guys at galaxy i think are paying attention to it more than the average crypto participant but i think that uh i think most people i've been talking to just really did not figure out what the treasury play is up until maybe a couple weeks ago and and it has been going for five years.
35:15Alex Thorn:Yeah. Right? Yeah. So, you know, that's a pretty big disconnect. It is pretty surprising that nobody, I guess you had MetaPlanet last year. I think it was probably the main second one to do it after MicroStrategy. And it's actually shocking. I mean, Michael Saylor bought his first Bitcoin for MicroStrategy in summer of 2020. It was during DeFi summer when we were all locked in with COVID. And I'm like shocked that it's taken five years for the meta to become a true meta. Yeah. It took, and even outside Metaplanet, it really took until like March of this year to even start, which is actually like shocking.
35:52Alex Thorn:And I also think it's shocking that we didn't really see altcoin foundations, influencers, whoever you want to talk about, a consensus in the case of like SBET and Joe Lubin. Like they didn't come up with doing this strategy until just a couple months ago. Right. Sailor's been doing it for five years, literally for five years. You're right. It's crazy. now here's the thing i've been so you know i'm talking to my friends in in and with their altcoin bags and and what they would tell me is look yes bitcoin had this advantage but now we're doing it too so obviously also gonna outperform from here and well here's the other thing though you you guys don't know how to do this right yet like you you because literally nobody has been paying attention at all.
36:38And I think, and if you're looking at the stuff going on, even the last week or two with SBED and BitMiner, you can see that it's still the learning rope stage, clearly. I don't think it's never going to work, but I think it's going to take a lot longer than people expect to reach that steady stream of capital that strategy is able to maintain. um because just this week right uh the the the stretch ipo from from strategy has been bigger than all of those other altcoin companies completely right if their entire thing was smaller than than than this one raised in in in a week not exactly in a week right ever right so you know the scale is completely different um now that's that's with stretch of being a small tiny asset that nobody cares about yet.
37:32What if it succeeds? What if it grows? What if it becomes a$50 billion asset? So strategy keeps pumping up those new instruments almost on a monthly basis. I assume they're hoping that one of them becomes immensely popular. That didn't even happen yet. We're looking at the small version of this. So yeah, I think that these other, those kind of altcoin Ethereum treasury companies, they're they're interesting for the long term but what you would really want is to see joe lubin and and tom lee and all these guys buying out all the ethereum holders over the next five years
38:12Alex Thorn:before there can really be an explosive move i see yes we've got a later stage bitcoin treasury company landscape it's more mature and they don't it's true they don't have a sailor and i don't just mean him the man and he is a brilliant financial engineer there's no doubt about that but they don't have the 25-year-old stock that has deep options markets. Many of these are based on shelf companies, right, that have no ability to raise debt in any meaningful way either, right? So we're really looking at mostly dilution, which Saylor has at his disposal as well, but Saylor clearly has many more tools, right?
38:48Alex Thorn:It's quite – and you're right. It's kind of like I was joking about this once. He just has much more experience. I mean he's well beyond simply doing at-the-money offerings. He's literally like creating whole new securities. These guys aren't even close to at that level yet. It's quite – so in that sense – And there's the history of buying out holders. The asset distribution for Bitcoin is completely different from Ethereum. Who's holding Ethereum? Mostly – yeah, there's some new holders in the last couple of weeks. Great. But mostly who's holding Ethereum? people who thought that the merge is going to be the reason that ethereum flips bitcoin and were wrong that have been holding all the way down from there and they're dying to get out this is the ethereum holder base not everyone but that's the general mentality in the ethereum community hey can we get a bump to 5 000 and dump it so it's a completely different holder base on On Bitcoin, we have this history of five years of sailors just buying out everybody.
39:57So yeah, it's like the company is completely different. Its ability, its capacity to raise capital is on another magnitude. And the assets distribution is completely different.
40:13Alex Thorn:Very interesting. All right. Well, it's a pretty well thought out bull thesis, I think, Udi. And I recommend people read more about it. Let's talk about a couple other items. I want to ask you about, again, since we haven't spoken on this show in two years, I was just at Presidio Bitcoin with a bunch of Bitcoin development types, including the Taproot Wizards CTO, Reindell. And we were talking a lot about quantum. I don't know if you have any – you guys have the quantum cats. Was that partly because of quantum threat? What are your thoughts on the quantum issue as it relates to Bitcoin? By the way, it affects all the other cryptos as well.
40:53Alex Thorn:In fact, many of them are much worse than Bitcoin. But what are your thoughts? I love the naming for QuantumCats. We just, at the time, we were like, it was QuantumCats because of Schrodinger Cat. But we were thinking, you know, there's probably a spin with Quantum. People are going to talk about it at some point. So that's a good way to name it. Look, I'm not exactly alarmed about the Quantum stuff. Mainly, I'm not. Look, I'm not smart enough to. I don't have the tools to really examine those things on a technical level. But I consider myself a relatively good marketer. And I can see a marketing campaign when I – I can recognize the marketing campaign when I see one.
41:37And a lot of the Microsoft, Google, all these guys announcing their breakthroughs in quantum computing, uh it's it it has a lot of the ingredients of you know microsoft announcing blockchain partnerships in 2017 and stuff like that you remember that there was a yeah that used to be a popular thing to announce so i don't i i cannot possibly pretend to understand the actual science but but as far as like the announcements yeah i don't buy it i don't think they have anything that's going to be meaningful for a very long time if they did this would have looked completely
42:16Alex Thorn:differently interesting so not concerned not concerned i don't think it's like an immediate thing i don't either by the way for the for the record yeah um what what uh you know eric eric wall my co-founder if he was here he would have said i think something like look ai is going to change everything about science anyway so whatever you think about quantum right now doesn't really really matter. AI will be able to tell us if it's possible or not. And if it is, they'll do it quickly. And if it's not, then not. Which is an interesting point. But yeah, as things stand, I don't think this is a very...
42:59But most importantly, I think what would be interesting to me, and I don't know the answer to that, but I think...
43:07Alex Thorn:I just noticed your glasses are FTX US glasses. Love it. It's FTX and Bitcoin 2022, I think. Nice. Yeah. Good old days.
43:22Well, anyways, so, you know, I would be interested to find out. I just don't know the answers to that. If there's actual allocators that are concerned about this, then maybe it's worthwhile to remedy the concerns. But I kind of don't see that. I don't know. Yeah. I don't have good visibility into it, but I don't feel like it's a huge concern for people.
43:46Alex Thorn:Another thing that we didn't, that is developed in Bitcoin world that I wanted to ask you about since we last spoke, the emergence of a movement among some Bitcoiners to run knots, the alternate implementation maintained by Luke Dash Jr. That is, I would say, what, 99.9 % Bitcoin core with a couple changes. I think so. In response to what they view as, how should I say this, inappropriate governance of the Bitcoin core implementation, particularly as it relates to cores. And again, I'm sort of saying how the not supporters might say it in relation to Bitcoin cores acceptance, even possibly promotion of the use of Bitcoin for arbitrary non-monetary transactions that they call spam.
44:41Alex Thorn:um core had lifted the or is lifting the op return uh field limit bite limit to unlimited i believe in a future release so i don't think it's actually come out yet what are your thoughts on this on this uh movement that is very opposed to the use of bitcoin for non-monetary transactions udi yeah i i'm i'm gonna tell you what i think because it's fun to talk about and I love gossiping, but I think this is gossip. This is what this is. It's like a completely immaterial thing. It doesn't matter at all. I think we as Taproot Wizards can probably take most of the credit or blame for getting people so upset about the JPEG and data thing.
45:25I actually think if someone else made the first four megabyte block with a JPEG in it, if it wasn't me,
45:32Alex Thorn:I think they probably wouldn't have cared about it. They'd be like, okay, whatever. So I think I kind of started it, and then a bunch of other people did it, and then it became personal. But that's really what this is. I don't think there's any real – I don't even think they're actually upset. But anyways, the op-return stuff, even though it's always talked about in the context of JPEGs, but actually it has nothing to do with the ordinals and inscriptions in JPEGs. because owners don't use op returns at all. And I think it was a little bit of a strategic blunder, in my opinion, from Core to even get into this argument.
46:16I feel like they could have just not do anything and nobody would care. I think they kind of like didn't think it through. And then as they started talking about it, I think since there was so much resistance and they didn't want to be the losers of the debate. They kind of like pushed through it. But it's actually a change that kind of doesn't matter, right? Because I don't think anything is going to change practically in the usage of the network. There is, I thought, I think it's not live yet. I think the change was merged, but there hasn't been a release.
46:56Alex Thorn:That's right. I think it's in the future. It'll be in a future Bitcoin core release. That's right. Yeah. So, you know, there is like people who like the stuff like degening around with like weird data on Bitcoin. They do like trying out the hot new capabilities. So they might kind of like basically do it just because. But I don't know if that's going to really pick up. I sent an op return last week. Yeah. That was a big one, wasn't it? It was my first one. And yes, it was an oversized non-standard transaction. So that's the thing, right? Even though the change has not been live yet, you could still do it.
47:37You just need to work with a mining pool to do it. Right. So the idea that it can be stopped is also kind of silly.
47:46Alex Thorn:Yeah. And also one of the things that I've thought was so interesting and humorous, it's one thing, you know, if we have this debate about the proper use of the network. when fees are exorbitant. When people are paying$100 a transaction, then yeah, it's reasonable to be mad at other people when you're just trying to send grandma some Bitcoin and you've got to wait in line behind a bunch of formeggers and it's causing you to make your Bitcoin transaction very expensive. I could see that being ripe for debate about the proper use of the network. But fees are basically dirt cheap and have been now for a while.
48:23Alex Thorn:You've even got sub-one-sat transactions making it into the network somehow. Yeah. So, like, this is like they're arguing about spam at a time when the mempool is empty. Yeah. It just, to me, is very ironic and silly. Yeah, that's why I'm saying it's just gossip, right? Like, it's just, and by the way, you know, I said before there's an epidemic of Bitcoiners without Bitcoin. I think a lot of people, I suspect, just based on psychology, that a lot of people in the knots camp are Bitcoiners without Bitcoin. I have that specificity. I haven't been proven wrong. They also think that if they haven't enough nodes, they can perform some kind of governance control or attack of the network to do something.
49:12Alex Thorn:And they always cite the block size war in 2017 and the user activated soft fork, the UASF, and the activation of Segwit as an example of this. But that's not what happened. And there was no UASF, correct? Yeah, so one could argue that the UASF was kind of this political threat that caused miners to back out and do what users wanted. That is a credible theory. I think so. I think so. I think it impacted it. Yeah. So even though the UASF didn't end up like happening per se, it was, I guess, used as a threat. But the dynamics here are completely different. And frankly, the percentage of people who care about this is a few orders of magnitude smaller.
50:13Alex Thorn:I think that was your core first point, which is when you say it's gossip, I agree with you. I don't think almost anybody cares about this. And maybe they would if there was spam, but in magnitudes. I mean, but if fees were like$200 a transaction, then they might care. But again, they're not. So it pragmatically doesn't affect anybody. You know, we talked about this a lot two years ago when we started Top of Wizards. I think there's like this big cultural shift that's going on in Bitcoin. And that's what I mean when I say that, you know, there are Bitcoiners without Bitcoin that people have been selling and so on.
50:47There's been a clear changing of the guards over the last few years. You don't really see the same prominent faces that you used to in the kind of, you know, Twitter sphere and whatever. It's all like new people with ties and whatever. And more importantly, when you look at the actual network, when you look at actual holder distribution, there's a new elephant in the room. And it's not the little kids with their nodes in the basement anymore. That was an important part in Bitcoin's history. And it's not anymore. And I think it's becoming very obvious to everyone that this is going forwards. the culture of Betcoin is not going to be I have a node and a cold card people can still do that if they want but that is not going to be what you hear about and I think that's fine
51:45Alex Thorn:yeah I think to me it's all about the optionality you should be able to run a node you should be able to store your own coins and you are and so the rest is sort of just like it's the natural I always laugh this is one example of the ETFs or another And you mentioned the ties, like the suit coiners. Like I don't think people realize that like this is what adoption looks like. Like this is what winning is. This is what we wanted. Yeah. Right. I don't think – it's almost like they thought that when the world got interested in Bitcoin in earnest that everybody would stop, you know, wearing suits to their companies and they would all like use raspberry pies and we would – right?
52:24Alex Thorn:You would go, yeah. But it's the other way around. Bitcoin is going into their world, into the broader world. The broader world is not pulling itself down into Bitcoin culture. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I guess that's what we hoped and planned for. This is one reason I like the idea of if we have stuff we want, like for self-sovereignty, get it in now. Right? Like propose those changes now. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's definitely going to get harder. And, you know, if the mind fuck theory is true, who's going to want to talk about upgrading Bitcoin at$400K, right? Yeah, it gets harder and harder, right? It's just like it's kind of like it's working.
53:10What do you want?
53:10Alex Thorn:Saylor talks about this all the time as like why he's sort of opposed to upgrading Bitcoin. Just generally that's his stance, which by the way is a good stance to have generally. Unless something rises to the quality and safety as an upgrade, right? But it's that he's like, why should some – I think he said it literally this way before. Why should some 28-year-old come out here and say, I want to fix Bitcoin? When he's got all this money tied into it and deep interest in it. And the more valuable it gets, the less risk people are going to want to take. Very difficult to argue with that, yeah. Yeah.
53:48And, you know, look, I think it's very naive to think that an upgrade even could happen without MicroStrategy's blessing. That's not going to happen. Their only way that it would happen is if they're into it. And if that offends someone that I say something like that, then I'm sorry. You can sell your Bitcoin. That was the time, I guess. but uh but i think that's the reality um you know it's one one of the um one of the my favorite reasons that bears have for why you should sell your bitcoin is they say well michael saylor is going to buy up all of it he's going to own all of it he's going to have all the bitcoin so why do you want to own it so i'm like okay so you tell me that He's going to buy up all the remaining supply and I should sell before?
54:46Is that what?
54:48Alex Thorn:It's like when people say nobody likes to go to that restaurant anymore because it's way too crowded, right? Yeah. And, you know, there's – we've talked a bit about those other treasury companies, right? And there's the cynical way to look at it, which is just like, okay, they're riding the wave and it's the new meta and whatever. And that's the cynical way. And it's, of course, true to an extent. But also, I think the bigger point is, and I think a lot of Bitcoiners are starting to see this, and that is the difference between Bitcoin and the other ones. I do think the Bitcoin is running out. I do think if you want to have some Bitcoin, if you want to have a company that has a Bitcoin treasury, you'd better get started, like, very soon.
55:30because it's not like it's going to get easier to raise dollars, but it's not going to get any easier to put Bitcoin into the treasury. That's going to get more and more expensive and difficult. If you actually do want to be a company that holds a lot of Bitcoin, I mean, you're already late. Whereas with the other ones, I don't think anyone feels any sense of urgency to buy Hyperliquid or Solana or Athena before they all run out. That is just not the case. And it might be the case in the future after these treasury companies operate and excel for five years. But right now, I don't think anyone feels any urgency like, oh, if I don't buy ETH today, I'm not going to have ETH to buy the next year.
56:24No, not yet. We're not there yet.
56:27Alex Thorn:I love it. But Udi, before we wrap, talk about Taproot Wizards. What are you guys cooking over there? Because we haven't seen any new – you've got the two collections, right? Yeah. Do you have any other products yet or whatever we call them? We finally, you know, finally put the Taproot Wizards on sale earlier this year. You did. I saw that. Yes. Congratulations. It was the oddest launch of an NFT collection ever where we made them and everyone wanted them. and then we refused to sell them for two years. That's behind us. I'm very glad people have them in their hands finally. It's a lot of fun.
57:10I'm going to set up another podcast with you for the announcement for the next thing. I hope people can think what they want, but there's reason. there's reason for everything we do that's what i thought well you guys have the the you were pioneers in ordinals for sure and um there is quite interesting bitcoin technology behind
57:35Alex Thorn:both taproot wizards and the quantum cats in particular um you've got some of i mean reindell is one of the well he's a wizard he's one of the most talented bitcoin engineers that i know of and so i think a lot of us are wondering if you know jpegs on bitcoin is where taproot wizards and I have to assume that's not the case. So we're... I wouldn't take that bet. Yeah, okay. So, well, I guess you're not sharing yet, which I understand. Certainly I can't force a customer support intern to give over. Yeah, I wouldn't know, right? Well, I'm excited to see what you guys do next, Udi, and I know our audiences as well.
58:14Alex Thorn:And as always, my friend, thank you for coming on Galaxy Brains. Yeah, thanks a lot. That's it for this week's episode of Galaxy Brains. Thank you to my guest, Udi Wartimer, from Taproot Wizards, and our friend Bim Netabibi from Galaxy Trading. As always, everyone have a safe and happy weekend, and we will see you next week.
58:38Alex Thorn:Thanks for listening to Galaxy Brains, the weekly podcast from Galaxy Research. If you enjoy the show, please like, rate, review, and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. To follow Galaxy Research, sign up for our weekly newsletter at gdr.email, Read our content at galaxy.com slash research and follow us on Twitter at GLXY research. See you next week.
From the publisher
Alex Thorn talks to Udi Wertheimer (Taproot Wizards) about the state of the bitcoin bull market, predictions of bitcoin price, treasury companies, bitcoin development, and much more. Alex also talks to Beimnet Abebe (Galaxy Trading) about the FOMC meeting, Fed independence, and predictions on crypto markets.
This episode was recorded on Wednesday, July 30, 2025.
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Follow us on Twitter, @glxyresearch, and read our research at www.galaxy.com/research/ to learn more! This podcast, and the information contained herein, has been provided to you by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP and its affiliates (“Galaxy Digital”) solely for informational purposes. View the full disclaimer at www.galaxy.com/disclaimer-galaxy-brains-podcast/
