The Global Story: Are we heading for World War Three?

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1:09And we're here with a bonus episode for you from the Global Story podcast. The world order is shifting. Old alliances are fraying and new ones are emerging. Some of this turbulence can be traced to decisions made in the United States. But the U.S. isn't just a cause of the upheaval. Its politics are also a symptom of it. Every day we focus on one story, looking at how America and the world shape each other. So we hope you enjoy this episode. And to find more of our show, just search for The Global Story, wherever you get your BBC podcasts. You might remember from history class that the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 led to the First World War.

1:53But our guest today, an expert on the history of war, says it's a lot more complicated.

1:59Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:There are masses of books and masses of articles. It's been estimated there's something like 32 ,000 things, books in English alone, on the origins of the First World War. Seriously? Wow. Because we still don't know. It's still debated. It turns out wars often spiral out of control for all sorts of unexpected reasons, sometimes even by accident, miscalculation, and pride. What started just over three weeks ago with the U.S. and Israel bombing Iran now involves more than a dozen other countries. And despite some signs that the Trump administration wants to negotiate, it's not clear Israel and Iran feel the same way.

2:39And that has some people wondering if there really is an off-ramp here, or could this continue to ratchet up and become an even bigger conflict? Is there a potential that this war could evolve into, dare I say, a World War III? Could we be heading toward World War III? Could we be a World War III? Are we headed for World War III? From the BBC, I'm Asma Khaled in Washington, D.C. And today on The Global Story, could we really be on the verge of World War III?

3:15Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:My name is Margaret Macmillan, and I'm a retired professor of history at the University of Toronto and a retired professor of history, international history at the University of Oxford. And I specialize in international relations of the 19th and 20th centuries. I saw you were described as Professor Emeritus. Is that the official title they give you if you're retired? Yes, well, they give it to you. When they put you out to grass, they give you a nice little title. Well, thanks again for joining us. So we brought you on our show today to discuss a question that I have been hearing raised in recent days.

3:47It is a question I've heard from some listeners. It's also a question that I've been reading about. It's been percolating in the atmosphere. And that is, are we headed to World War III? Now, Margaret, to be clear, I don't personally think we are, but it is a question people are asking. And so here at the outset, I want to hear from you. Do you think it's a relevant question in this moment?

4:08Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:Unfortunately, I do think it's a relevant question. We tend to think that wars are very carefully planned and those who go to war know exactly what they're doing and they have very clear plans. In fact, if you look at past wars, and I'm thinking particularly of the First World War, a lot of what set it off finally was accident and people misjudging their opponents and people feeling they didn't dare back down. I mean, think of it sometime like a sort of fight in a schoolyard. You reach a point where you can't back down and you lose face. And so you decide to go ahead. And And so I think we have to remember in history, there's accident, there's things like pride, sense of honor, fear of the opponent.

4:42Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And so I think often nations like people get into fights that they don't really want to be in. And once in, of course, it's very difficult to get out. And so the First World War was not something, I think, that most people in Europe wanted, including those who were their leaders, but enough people were prepared to risk it, that it did happen. And so we can't rule out the possibility, I think, at the present as we see tension spots. We're in the middle at the moment of increasing tension and open fighting in the Middle East. And there are other spots, of course, the South China Seas, the Taiwan, the India-China border.

5:18Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And so it's not foolish or imagining things to be worried about conflict spreading at the moment. Before we go deeper into this conversation, I think it's worth just making sure we know what we're talking about in terms of the lexicon, the terminology we're using. You are a historian of war. And so, Margaret, what exactly is a world war? Is there an agreed upon definition? I suppose no. I think we just all use it to describe a war that's not confined to one part of the world. There were still bits of the world that didn't really suffer actual fighting in either the First or Second World War. Latin America didn't see much fighting.

5:57Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And Canada didn't actually see, and the United States didn't see fighting on its territory. But we were engaged overseas. But a world war, I think, just is a fact of a global world, that there are these connections between different parts of the world and very difficult to confine war to a particular area. Margaret, we know that you're a historian, not a military analyst, but the context in which we are having this conversation today is the war in the Middle East. And we wanted to talk to you about how this situation could possibly escalate into a broader war. And conversely, how we might avoid it escalating into such a dire world war situation.

6:35And so first, let's talk about scenario one, the path toward World War III. As we are recording with you, there have been missiles, airstrikes, drone strikes, not just in Iran, but also in Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Azerbaijan, occupied West Bank, and Cyprus. And, you know, overall, if we include the United States involvement, we're talking about more than a dozen countries. It is still what many people describe as a regional war. But can you imagine a scenario where it escalates to a bigger war, possibly to a world war?

7:20Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:I think the country that's likely to escalate it is probably Iran or allies of Iran, such as the Houthi in Yemen. And what will happen if they start attacking tankers or naval vessels belonging to global powers? And what will happen if Iran destroys, it's already attacked, I believe, one of the desalination plants in the Emirates. Which the Gulf uses, you're saying, for drinking water in many cases, correct? Because they don't have ample supplies of water of their own. And what will happen if Iran decides to go further and simply close the Straits of Hormuz, begin to really choke off, for example, China's oil supplies and gas supplies.

7:59Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And so it has the possibility, I think, of drawing in other powers. We have to hope it won't happen. China, I think, is reluctant to get drawn into any sort of conflict in the Middle East. It has other things that it's concerned about. But let's say, for example, what happens if China thinks, well, this is actually a good time to try and take Taiwan. It won't be a direct result of the conflict in the Middle East, but it will be seen possibly by Chinese thinkers, strategists, Xi Jinping himself, possibly as an opportunity, a good time for China to make a move on Taiwan if that's what it wants to do.

8:31Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And so there is always a possibility of conflict spreading outside a region, partly because others outside the region will see opportunities in the conflict because it's engaging people who might stop them from doing what they want. So you've studied wars in the past. And And so I want to understand from you if there are common ingredients that you have seen in previous wars that you are seeing now that give you concern that this could potentially become a larger conflict. Well, I think the whole thing about how it's easier to start a war than it is to end it. And I think, you know, the French prime minister, Clemenceau, in the First World War said making peace is harder than making war.

9:11Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And I think he was right, that once you start a war, once you get the losses, I think people become engaged. And there is often an argument that for the sacrifice of these people that we've already made, we must continue to win the war. And I think that can be a factor. I mean, I think we have to look at the role of emotions and things like pride. You don't want to be seen as backing down. Putin, I think, is very much an example of this. I mean, he's clearly made a real mistake in trying to invade Ukraine. This month marks four years since Russia invaded Ukraine. The casualties count is staggering.

9:51But he will not admit it. And he keeps on claiming victory, even though the losses keep mounting. With nearly two million soldiers on both sides killed, wounded or missing. Russia's military suffering the worst with 1.2 million casualties.

10:06Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And so I think we have to look at the individual leaders. We had at the end of the Second World War, We had Hitler sitting in his bunker in Berlin. In the final hours of the European war, Hitler prolonged the war to live as long as he could and consigned his country to destruction. He was prepared to sacrifice every German to see the German people fight on and be destroyed. And when someone said, you know, they don't deserve it, he said, they failed me. The Nazi monster died hard and had to be smashed into submission. You know, we have to look at the role of leadership, human emotions. It's like looking at a very complicated chess game being played on many levels and which factor is going to be the most important one.

10:45Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:But I think in all wars, you see pretty much a sense that we didn't think it would turn out quite this way. You said earlier in our conversation that accidents can play often a big role into determining whether wars spiral into just bigger and bigger wars. Can you spell out an example or two from history in which that has happened, even if not into a world war, into a much larger war? Well, I think the classic is the First World War. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand, the Archduke, probably shouldn't have happened. He went to Bosnia and Herzegovina on the day of the great Serbian national holiday and got himself assassinated in spite of all the warnings.

11:29Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And I would call that an accident, an accident that could have been avoided. And I think what the assassination of Franz Ferdinand did was set a match to a pile of fuel that was already there. And so Austria-Hungary for long had seen Serbia as this poisonous little country on its southern border. And so in Vienna, when they heard about the Archduke, they said, this is our chance. We're going to destroy Serbia. It's quite clear they're behind it. We've got every excuse that we need. Austria-Hungary then went to Germany and said, look, we're going to try and really finish Serbia once and for all.

12:01Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:will invade or whatever they said they were going to do. Will you back us? And that's when Germany gave the infamous blank check. Go ahead. Serbia then looked to Russia, its patron, and said, are you with us? And more or less Russia said, yes, you know, we're not going to let them push you around like this. And at that point, things began to move very fast indeed. The Russians then said to the French, who are their allies, if we go to war with Germany and Austria-Hungary, are you win? And the French said, yes, we have an alliance. The French more or less said to the British, well, what about you?

12:34Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And the British didn't have to go in, but they felt it was a matter of honor. And they also didn't want a continent dominated by Germany. And so the assassination took place on the 28th of June, 1914. By August 1914, Europe was involved in a major war. And that then spread through the rest of Europe and through other parts of the world. And of course, in 1917, the United States came into it. I mean, I'm simplifying it, but it more or less was a chain reaction that happened. And of course, the assumption was that it was going to be a very short war and we should never assume things about war because we don't know how it's going to go.

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15:29Margaret, if I can take us back to the Iran War, I want to turn now to the other big alternative scenario, and that is the path that takes us away from World War III. I mean, first off, do you foresee the other major powers, whether we're talking about China, but also Russia, for instance, do you see them being drawn into this conflict? Or is that unlikely in your view?

15:59Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:I think the other major powers will be drawn in simply by the fact that they get, especially in the case of China, they get fuel and fertilizer from Iran. And so their supplies are being threatened. I doubt if they'll be drawn in militarily, why would they want to be? I noticed that both Russia and China have been very quiet about the possibility of sending ships, for example, to the Gulf to try and protect tankers. And so I think the way they're being drawn in is simply because of economic factors. And in the case of Russia, they've had a relationship with Iran for some time. So I don't think we will see either of those countries coming in and creating conflict, engaging in a war.

16:35Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:But it is quite possible that Russia will redouble its efforts in Ukraine because other powers are distracted. And it's quite possible that China may decide to make a move against Taiwan because, again, other powers are distracted. So given where we are in the war at this moment in time in the Middle East, what are some of the ways you could envision this conflict de-escalating? If you say that economics might draw China into the conflict in some ways, I've been wondering, too, I mean, is the economy not a way in which this could all entirely de-escalate? I mean, I covered the White House for several years here.

17:12I sit here in Washington, D.C., and I know that President Trump, for example, does get skittish about the health of the stock markets, the economy. That undoubtedly factors into his thinking.

17:23Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And I think it is possible that on both sides, I mean, let's take the two main protagonists, the United States, Iran, but also in Israel and in a number of the other Middle Eastern countries, there are those who say this has gone far enough. We can't sustain this and it's causing problems. And of course, in the United States, the president and the administration have to think about the midterms that are coming up. And wars tend not to be popular with the American public and rising prices. So domestic factors are always a consideration in these things. I mean, what we have to hope is that a number of the parties will get together.

17:57Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:I mean, key would be the United States and whoever is speaking for Iran, speaking to each other. But I think Israel has to be in some ways part of this because Israel has played such a part in the war. And I think a number of the Middle Eastern countries, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, would like some sort of participation. But it may also be that much as it's being reviled and disregarded, the UN can play a role in actually coming in. You think so? Because that's certainly not the perspective I hear from the Trump administration, who seems to think that the UN is an outdated organization in many ways.

18:28Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:Well, what the United Nations, and we all know its weaknesses, what the United Nations has done and can still do is provide a forum for discussions. And it has previously come in and monitored ceasefires and it has in previous conflicts helped with reconstruction in post-conflict situations. And so I wouldn't write the UN off, but we badly need at the moment some sort of discussions which will be backed enough by outside other interested parties who want to make this work. If you see the economy or domestic politics, the upcoming midterm elections, as possible motivations for de-escalation, I mean, I understand why President Trump might want to de-escalate, but I don't have a clear sense of what are the paths for de-escalating from the perspective of the Iranians or from the perspective of the Israelis.

19:22Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:Well, I think with the Israelis, I mean, again, so much depends on Netanyahu, who seems to be really making the running here. And he seems to have as his war aim, which I don't think is any longer an American war aim, toppling the regime in Iran. And I think the United States will have to make it clear to him that they're not going to support that if they want to get some sort of peace. As long as Israel is prepared to keep on bombing Iranian infrastructure and causing damage to that infrastructure, then I don't think there's going to be much hope of peace. But the United States has a lot of leverage that it can exert over Israel.

19:55Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And there are those in Israel. I mean, we've seen it in some of the Israeli press who simply don't support what is going on, who think it's very, very risky indeed. In Iran, I mean, I think we were told that there were those who were ready to possibly hand over the enriched uranium were prepared to hand it over to a third party, possibly Russia. Now, whether they're still prepared to do that is another matter. But I mean, there's not going to be any sort of settlement, I think, unless there's some sort of agreement on Iran's capacity to make nuclear weapons. And whether or not they're still willing to do this remains to be seen.

20:27Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:But I think there's got to be, if we want to end this conflict before it goes on and before it spreads and causes even more misery, then we need to see some sort of talking. So it will depend, I think, a lot on who's in charge in Iran and what they want, a lot on what's happening inside Israel, but also a lot on the United States. And these are all difficult to gauge, and we'll have to see. But I think it's costing them all in their own ways. And it may well be that they're all reaching a conclusion that we're not getting what we thought we were going to get. It's not worth it. I mean, I think both Israel and the United States assumed that the Iranian regime would topple.

21:01Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:The Iranians would immediately sue for peace. And we're now, you know, seeing that this is not the case. And so it may well be that people on all sides are beginning to think, how do we stop this? Are there some examples from history of regional conflicts that involved major powers that could have exploded into a larger war, into a potential world war, but instead were averted? I mean, we talk a lot about the wars that did happen, World War I, World War II, but what about the wars that didn't happen? Yeah, no, there are always wars that don't explode into wider conflicts. I mean, in Europe in the 19th century, which was by European standards a pretty peaceful century, there were wars promoted by Germany to unify all the German-speaking states into what became Germany.

21:55Emeritus Professor Margaret MacMillan:And those wars never involved more than two parties. And that, I think, in one case, there were three. But in that case, I think you did see wars that were contained and other powers standing aside because they didn't want to get involved. A more interesting example is when the accident doesn't turn into war. My fellow Americans, I'm coming before you tonight about the Korean airline massacre, the attack by the Soviet Union. And that's when one, for example, when the Korean airliner 007 was shot down at the beginning of the 1980s. And it was apparently shot down by Russians by mistake. But those in charge in the Soviet Union thought the United States was probably going to attack them for it.

22:37The Soviet Union has carried on the most massive military buildup the world has ever seen. Until they're willing to join the rest of the world community, we must maintain the strength to deter their aggression.