#63 - Paul Podolsky: Art and Science in Investing

26:02It's not for of the faint of heart, what I would say. But the beautiful thing is it really does, what I feel is I feel very plugged into the world. What's going on with Japan and China and everything? It's sort of like I have a picture in my head and then I can look at the prices on the screen and see if that picture is accurately playing out. So earlier, you talked about how in your conversation with Ray asking whether you can systematize the structure you just talked us through. You said, probably not. So what that to me suggests is that there's art and science in investing, which is more important?

26:36I think they're both important, at least for the way I do it. The way I think about it is, yes, there's art and science. Investing to me is left brain and right brain. So the left brain is all the analytical stuff. If you're involved in a market, you better know what's discounted there. If you look at the S &P 500 right now, it's discounting 21.5 P-E ratio, which is the absolute upper range of what people have ever paid for those earnings. And if you flip that around, if you divide the P by the E, you look at the earnings yield, it's a 4.5 % yield on putting your money in stocks, which is roughly equivalent what it is for bonds.

27:15So said differently, there's no risk premium there for buying US stocks at all right now. So that's just straight. That's just math. That's just straight left brain, left brain, left braid, which is important. But then I think the intuition is having a sense of how things can play out in the future and imagining, okay, if I'm a small business owner in the United States and the margin on my business is call it 10%, which is not unusual. And I import 30 % of my stuff abroad to make whatever I'm doing, because that's the way things work. Okay. If there's a 20 % tariff, that's basically going to wipe out my profits from that.

27:55What would I do if I were that type of business person? Well, I would do X and Y and Z. So the imagination is thinking through all those types of things. So if I were to do that, I don't think I'd be hiring people. I think I'd be cutting costs now. So where would I see if they were cutting costs? I would think it would show up in the data here. And so when I look at data that's coming in, I don't say, oh, the number came out X. What does that say? I have a picture in my head about what the number should say. So right now, like on Friday, like I was saying, the employment report came out, we're in the middle of freezing a lot of hiring for government workers.

28:31So I would have been astonished if that category was strong and it was weak. So I'm like, okay, this is playing out like they've frozen this thing. This thing is now weak. Now we play through what's going to happen next. So the art and the science, the science is being very rigorous in terms of knowing what's discounting, knowing the report that's come out, how are you going to break it up? But then the art of it is imagining all those pieces, the way they could interact at some point in the future. So in some ways, rather than just looking at the data as a picture of what's happened, looking backwards, you look at it in terms of verifying your forward-looking picture of what the world looks like and if things are moving in that direction or not.

29:14Yeah. And then I look at market prices to see how people respond to that. So if the report comes out and I'm saying, wow, underneath the hood, this thing looks kind of weak to me. But then you would have seen bonds really sell off on that. You're like, huh, people are seeing it differently than I am. Why is that? And that raises a question. So you want to be ahead of people in the markets, but you don't want to be too far ahead because that's the person that was really far ahead, but they didn't make money for five years. They were right over a five-year time frame. I'm a little bit more impatient.

29:46I would like to be right over a shorter timeframe. That's interesting because you hear about a lot of what they call perma bears, where they have a catastrophic view of the future and they're right one out of 10 times. And people talk about the one that they were right, but they forget about the nine that they were wrong or way too early. Absolutely. I think over time, things basically, most times they work out. So not withstanding all the terrible things that have happened to the U.S. equity market over the last hundred years, these precipitous falls, it's still been a fine asset class to hold.

30:22And so that's worth bearing in mind. I just wouldn't tolerate a 90 % loss of my wealth. And if you happen to invest, while that's true over time that being a perma bearer is not a good way of apprehending reality, it's also true that the volatility, of specific markets can have an unbelievably deleterious effect on wealth. And I did grow up wealthy and it took a lot of effort to accumulate the savings I have. And I'm very cautious about things that can destroy it. In our last episode, a little over a year ago, you mentioned using emotion and intuition as an early warning signal to take action.

31:08I guess part of that is like the art of investing. Can you elaborate on this distinction between your approach and the way emotion normally influences investment decisions? For most people, they get scared and they sell low and then they get greedy and they buy high. So how do you distinguish the way you think about it versus that? It's true that most people say, again, the way investing, we have a disciplined approach, We have long term, blah, blah, blah. We're not. And the whole idea is that emotion is really disastrous for investing. And certainly emotion can be disastrous for investing. That's true.

31:46But I think about it a little bit differently, which is that we've been given this unbelievably powerful mind. And it has a very Darwinian survival instinct to it. And if you listen to it, it can have really relevant information. You know, people say sometimes, this happened to my wife once, people have a sense, I've heard this particularly from women, that I was in a spot and something didn't feel right. And I just decided to take a cab or, you know, I got out of that situation fast. And one, this actually came up in that when I was writing one of the books is a fiction, it's a spy book that I wrote, Master Minion.

32:28And I talked to an actual CIA officer about this when I was doing it. And I had invented these techniques for the main character to be aware when he was being followed. He was in Russia where I spent a lot of time. And the agent said to me, he said, if you're any good as an agent, if you're being followed, you know it. He said, you just know it. And that really struck me that on some intuitive level, you know, if you're that, that, that if you're prey, if somebody's after you. And I think that the same thing could happen in markets too. That if you, you know, if you're operating out of fear, reactive, that's not good.

33:11But if you, if, if you really listen to, wow, I think that something, it could be extraordinarily good. Like this whole AI thing, people have obviously made a ton of money when they were like, wow, this is going to be transformational until recently when they were on the long side. Or it could be something bad that bonds are going to go down a lot or stocks are going to go down a lot or whatever it is. And so I believe listening to those things is important. And it depends on the person. Like I was saying, this has worked for me and I've tracked my results with my own wealth. And I was very skeptical of it until I saw the results.

33:48And I was like, huh, Ray uses rules. I don't use rules, but this is working for me. And Ray's thing works for him. And I suppose where you can draw the distinction is if you're reacting to something bad that's already happened or something really good that's already happened, And that's a little different from, I think, what you're describing, which is almost you can see it coming and you can act right as it happens or just before. Does that seem like the right distinction? It's true, but I would say the emotion is always there. The Soros of the Alchemy of Finance described, he said he always, as he was managing through that environment, he said when something good unfolded relative to his portfolio bets, he experienced that as relief.

34:31And when something bad happened, he experiences his pain. That's Soros. Like, he's a pretty amazing investor. And he is subject to pain and relief. So I think that that's, it just comes with the territory. And for me, a lot of it helps just building in expectations. Like, if I hold a 60-40 portfolio and we go through a period of time where stocks are going to do really bad, if I know ahead of time, okay, this portfolio, 60-40 portfolio as you know well, is mostly an all-stock portfolio because the volatility of stocks is bigger than the bonds, meaning that if we go through a 2000-style correction in the markets, that portfolio could lose 20%, 30%, 40%.

35:16And that would be normal. So a lot of it, the emotion, like, would it be painful for anybody losing that money? I think so. But a big part of it is being prepared for that ahead of time, emotionally knowing that that could happen. And at least for me, it makes it much easier to negotiate it. So I like to think about all of the pieces of my portfolio. What is the range of outcomes that can happen? And even in life, that's true, knowing what the range of outcomes are. And so when you go through something difficult, it's part of your expectations. Earlier, you alluded to risk management. How do you think about risk and how do you approach risk management?

35:56so the first answer is very holistically so i think risk is anything that can take your money uh risk could be a bad counterparty it could be um uh uh your accounts getting hacked so first think about it very holistically so i have taped up on the wall behind me the the confirmation for the first futures trade that i ever did in my life when i was at the bank with my personal money. It was a long position in Canadian dollars. That firm that did that transaction with me is bankrupt. And actually three of my futures brokers went under, all three of them, before I switched to somebody else. So this is a real...

36:46And each of them I managed to, for various different reasons, I had bad experiences. And I was like, God, this firm doesn't seem great. I think I'm going to put my money somewhere else. and it was just again that was a little bit the intuition like this doesn't feel right so first of all risk is really holistic then in terms of managing portfolio i do i would say a number of things at once first i'm always translating the dollars in the portfolio to risk like we were talking before 60 40 portfolio isn't really a 60 40 portfolio because the stocks are so much risky but for all the things i do stocks bonds currencies and commodities their volatility is very different.

37:24And if you have an investment position in two-year bonds, it has much different characteristics than a position in 30-year bonds. So I'm constantly translating the dollars I have to risk, and then I'm thinking about how those risks can move together. That's just table stakes, though, converting all of your dollars to a risk perspective. Then I spend a lot of time thinking about how that portfolio might act around discrete events. So if there's a Fed meeting, an election with a very uncertain outcome, the election, I had no idea whether Harris would win or Trump, and I had no idea the way the Congress would go.

38:04So I was thinking very much, well, this basket of securities, there was four different scenarios. I was looking for things that would op would survive any of the scenarios, which was actually a very limited number of securities that would. So I always converting dollars to risk and looking at that over really long periods of time. I look at the specific event that could hurt. And then also I find, frankly, looking at how my gains or losses are happening on the day over a series of days are really helpful. In other words, say you think that you're running low risk, but your P &L is as measured by those measurements.

38:49So you look at your volatility and you're saying, listen, I'm not taking much risk here at all. But the P &L is going up and down a lot. You know that you're in a period of time where markets are not that normally distributed. So it's useful to have those numbers, but don't pay, don't overly rely, don't rigidly follow them and go, ah, I'm only running 10 % risk. Well, look at what's actually happening with your numbers, the actual risk might be much, much higher. And anytime the risk is much higher, that's where the risk of ruin begins to rise exponentially. So I'm very cautious about that. And the last thing is, I talk with one of the wonderful things about now having Kate Capital be up and functioning is that when I left Bridgewater at that period of time, I was just investing on my own.

39:35Now I have colleagues that I can do this with. And people who have years of experience and then we'll just talk. What would happen if this portfolio goes through a 2018 style drawdown? What happens if we get a big risk off? All those types of scenarios we look at. And so to get what is a high return per unit risk, you have to think a ton about the risk. And I think about it a lot. I'd like to ask you some questions about your outlook. Ever since I've known you, I feel like you've always had a well-informed perspective about what the world looks like and how it may change. And then let me start with inflation.

40:12So for a long time, inflation was low and stable. And now it looks like it may be higher and more volatile than it's been for decades. What would you say are the implications both for investments and also for the assumptions that investors who've been investing for three or four decades may have that may change if we're in this new regime? Yeah, I don't think we're in a new regime with inflation. So I've got a lot of concerns, but I'm not that actually worried about inflation for, I'd say, three reasons. The first reason is, I think that growth is slowing pretty meaningfully. And that'll tend to bring inflation down.

40:59The second thing is that, for instance, is if the stock market, which has stopped going up and even started falling, if it falls further, mechanically, inflation will begin to fall. Because one of the things that's in the inflation is all the brokerage fees people pay, et cetera, and all of that stuff will begin to diminish. So that's the first point. Second point is technology really matters. And I believe we're on a wave of whether people value these companies correctly or incorrectly is a separate matter. But AI is transformative and labor-saving. And I think that it's actually getting diminished demand for labor in the short term, but we're already seeing signs of it.

41:39And so I think, again, the risk is that inflation is too low, not too high. um and then the the third thing is is that a lot of the inflation i believe was caused by uh the policies both in terms of supply chains and fiscal stimulus around covet and that's in the past and so it's gradually going to diminish but who knows if i'm right i think for investors the key thing is inflation is horrible for portfolios, horrible. There's very few good places to hide. And thinking about how you could possibly protect your portfolio from that, I think is critical. There aren't that many good solutions. There really aren't.

42:26But the solutions that are available, having some inflation-linked bonds, having some commodities, et cetera, are better than nothing. And so a lot of people don't have any familiarity with those asset classes. And I think from the perspective of a long-term investor, they can be helpful. But I do think even with inflation-linked bonds, you really need to be careful about government policy. So Paul Krugman, some people who might like him, some people might hate him, but he's a Nobel Prize winner. He's not a dumb guy. He has publicly come out and cautioned Americans about holding inflation-linked bonds because he's worried about institutional erosion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

43:10So I don't know whether Paul's right or wrong, but I'm just citing that there, that that's even one more element at how hard it is to protect yourself from inflation. But the big thing is, is knowing that it could occur, and at least having a conversation with whoever's helping you with your portfolio, or if you're doing it on your own, really thinking about what can possibly help you in those environments. Two of the arguments for higher and more volatile inflation that I've heard, I'm curious to hear your thoughts. One is this shift from globalization to deglobalization, which you would think is a secular shift.

43:47And another is tariffs and policy, immigration, etc. That could be inflationary over the near term. What are your thoughts about those? I think that deglobalization is not good for inflation. That's true. But you need to weigh it against what the impact is of this labor-saving technology, which one is going to be a bigger force. And then on the tariffs, it's also true that tariffs mechanically raise prices. But I just think of tariffs as a tax. They're also really going to hurt growth. And so if you raise taxes on the U.S. economy by 25%, of course, it's less than that because imports are a certain fraction of the economy.

44:34But if you do that, you're going to get weakening growth. And I think you're already beginning to see signs of it. And so you have to weigh the slow in growth relative to the rising inflation. So that's true that decolonization and tariffs are inflationary. But I think to our point earlier, there's other forces that are going to dominate relative to that, that people, in my estimation, are having a hard time incorporating into their process. And we also talked about always looking at what the market is discounting. It's not discounting very high inflation for a long period of time. Do you feel that's about right?

45:08it's discounting not low inflation uh relative to relative to what it has been and it's certainly not basically i would say u.s assets are discounting a boom as what they're discounting they're discounting incredibly strong earnings uh strong enough growth to sustain very high real rates and pretty positive inflation call it two and a half percent inflation that's basic i mean i can turn my bloomberg and look at exactly what it is but that's basically what it is but that's kind of like a boom. And I don't think we're going to be in a boom. And so that's why when I look at the discounting of those assets relative to what my mind is a fair value for them, they look off to me.

45:48So somewhat related to that, there's a common perspective that the S &P 500 is ironclad, that you could just hold it alone or make it a material part of your portfolio. They're the best companies in the world. And that could be your portfolio and you can hold it for a long time and be fine. What's your perspective about that? I disagree. I mean, I think it's a fine portfolio as long as you're willing to stomach 50 % drawdowns. And I don't want to stomach 50 % drawdowns. So right now, as I said, the price you're paying for those great companies is about the highest historically that people have paid.

46:23And the last time we introduced tariffs, stocks fell by 20 % and they were trading at valuations then a fraction of what they are right now. So I think it's totally reasonable to think that stocks could fall 20 to 40%. There wouldn't be anything unusual about that. And there's great companies there. The way I described it in a piece recently is that say you have a favorite car and you think it's a great car. And the example I used was say you have a thing for Porsches. I don't have a Porsche, but I do think they're cool cars. So I think a new Porsche costs like$150 ,000, which is a lot of money.

47:00but even if it was a Porsche there's no way you'd spend five hundred thousand dollars to buy it you just wouldn't do it and there's a lot of companies that people hold that they're like this thing will never go down and I could list the names for them but I don't want to get it sound like I'm speculating on stocks but look at the companies that a lot of households own and look at what their P.E. is relative to average. One of them that's very widely held, it has a P.E. of 56 right now. It's P.E. over the last 10 years is about 30. Said differently, this great company, and it is a great company.

47:37It's a company that I've gone to and I like their stuff. If the value of that company falls by 46%, it wouldn't even be cheap. It would be completely normal. That's just getting the Porsche price. That's like the Porsche trading for 300 grand. And then it goes down to 150 grand. Still a great car. And so I'm not comfortable with that set and forget. And, you know, maybe I'm neurotic or something. Anyways, we all got to get through this the way we do. And the way I do is I pay attention to this stuff. And if I think that something is worrying, I take action. What do you think about gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiers?

48:18I think they're a little bit different. um both of them are currencies um i think gold can uh uh play a role for sure it's an ancient form of money people have been having it forever and uh it's it's not very useful for transactions but i think in portfolios at moments in time it can be helpful and now it's probably one of those moments uh bitcoin i used to be very skeptical on but i came to understand that it can be if not useful to portfolio useful in life and what helped me understand it was actually a trip to Argentina I took so Argentina has a history of it's crazy hyperinflation and I spoke with some people because I speak Russian because I started my career there I spoke with some people who had fled the war in Ukraine Russians who were software engineers who were working in Buenos Aires because you don't need a visa to get there for the Russians.

49:15So they were getting paid in rubles, which is a sanctioned currency. And they needed to spend in pesos, which had hyperinflation. There was no way they could translate that to gold and do anything. So what they would do is they would get paid in rubles, they would go to a Bitcoin exchange, flip that all into Bitcoin. And then in Argentina, where they needed to buy groceries, they would go to an exchange, sell their Bitcoin, get argentinian pesos literally for like that day because the inflation was so high at that point get the pesos delivered by moped by a courier and then they would go out and buy their groceries and so i understood that bitcoin was a little bit like a cell phone like for uh you know to set up landline technology is really too expensive for many countries and cell phones allowed you to leaf frog that most places in the world have terrible monetary policy awful and bitcoin is crazy volatile.

50:08And so if you're in the US or Europe or Japan, I don't think it makes that much sense in a portfolio. But if you have the misfortune of being in the vast majority of people who have terrible monetary policy, I think Bitcoin can be useful because it's less bad than the alternatives of saving in your domestic currency, and you might not have access to other more stable currencies. So I think it can help, but even all these things, I don't always hold gold in a portfolio, I think, but at moments in time, it can be helpful. Are there any market segments that look particularly attractive or potentially very risky today when you scan the landscape?

50:53Dollar-denominated stocks look incredibly risky to me right now. And that's the big thing that stands out to me. So how did we get to such elevated valuations in the United States? Well, one of them was the earnings of these companies was fantastic. They had really, really strong post-COVID earnings. But the other thing was the rest of the world sent their money to the United States to buy these stocks. So foreign ownership of US equities is really, really high. Now what's happening is these countries are, many of them where these savers reside are in a trade war with the United States. Very uncertain what the magnitude of it is, but you know you're in a war.

51:40and treaties, some of them decades old, not only trade treaties, but also security treaties are being dismantled. And I think it's totally reasonable to imagine that forwarders say, huh, A, we should buy so many U.S. products. B, we shouldn't put our money there to save. And so if that happens and that money pulls out, U.S. households are now buying a lot of stocks They've been buying the dip, but foreigners have been pulling out. And it seems to me totally plausible that the foreigners can pull out much, much more than they have, which would lead to a sharp decline in equities and also the dollar.

52:23So, again, this is an investment advice. You've got to do your own research. I'm not trying to sell you anything or something like that, but you're asking my views. I'm sharing what my views are. As I say on my blog, I say investing is risky and often painful. Do your own research. But if you want my view, that's my view of this thing. So I think that it's really, it's a very tricky time to be an investor. And I think that the administration is essentially saying we want to get yields lower and the dollar lower. And the easiest way to do that is to get the equity market down. So if you're willing to sacrifice the equity market and the currency for the sake of bonds, then you would get those outcomes.

53:07And does anything look attractive? Well, the flip side of this, I think foreign currencies. I go through long periods of time where I have no currencies in my portfolio. I think foreign currencies are extraordinarily attractive relative to history right now. So the dollar is, because all these inflows came in, the dollar is most expensive if you adjust it for inflation since the breakup of Bretton Woods. So these foreign currencies, I think, are incredibly attractive relative to the dollar. And if we get to slow down even bonds, which I think everybody is a U.S. boring old government bonds, which a lot of people are afraid to buy, I think could be fantastic.

53:46Right now, typically those bonds are good. What the Federal Reserve actually begins cutting rates a lot. And I think they're telling you that they're going to take their time. But if I'm right about the direction of these things, that would begin to set into motion those changes. So piecing all this together, it almost sounds like, at least in my experience, most people extrapolate the recent past into the distant future and market pricing tends to follow that path. And the world that you're describing, it's almost like the opposite of the world that we've lived in. Yes, I think the markets at this particular point in time are discounting a future that no longer exists.

54:27And it's such a big shock. People are having trouble getting their mind around it, which is what I've been trying to write about in my posts. that is a very different world than the one we've lived in. But you're seeing it in other places too. What happened this last week in Europe was very important, I think. So they've had decades of where their whole lesson after World War II was, A, economic integration would produce war, B, the way to reduce extremism, which led to all the tumult in the first past 20th century, it was very prudent fiscal policy. Now they're saying, listen, if we have no security umbrella for the United States, all that's out the window.

55:13And so you've seen huge, you saw the biggest increase in German interest rates since the breakup of, since the collapse of the Berlin Wall. And I think that this is for a very good reason, because if other countries follow what Germany is going to do, and I think that they likely will, because the security umbrella is likely going to be taken away, you could get a massive fiscal boom in Europe. And that could be, you know, you get the negative, you get the opposite reaction in European bonds that you're getting in US bonds. So fiscal tightening in the US and really potentially very significant fiscal expansion in Europe.

55:52And when you look historically, typically the biggest market moves are when you have a very different environment from what you've had for an extended period because that extended period results in expectations of that continuing. And if you get a very different world, that's when you get market moves in pretty significant ways. And it sounds like what you're describing is early signs of that potentially happening. Yeah. So what's discounted is this boom, this US exceptionalism, sticky inflation. And I think that in the United States, you're likely to get the exact opposite. I don't know. I'm not just being contrarian to be contrarian.

56:30I don't always have that view. There's periods of time that I'm very excited about US equities and I have the white portfolio and they own them. And frankly, trading markets that are rising is much, much easier than trading markets that are declining because these short, these sharp falls in US equities, statistically, it only happens about 10 % of the time. So in a way, you're kind of betting against city hall in a way. Like you're not doing something that on average should work. On average, buy and hold works great. But like I said, there's moments in time it really doesn't. And my hypothesis is that we're in one of those times right now.

57:06We're going to see more. We now got an hour till the future's open. We're going to find more then. Knowing you for a long time, I've always felt that you have a well-informed view of geopolitics. So let me ask you, where do you think we're headed? And perhaps you can outline different scenarios and their odds. I think that there's a confrontation with Russia building. And I think the odds of that confrontation are quite high, as long as Putin is alive. Because what's happened is he's been very transparent with what his desires are, which is to expand his territory. It's very different if somebody is doing this with who's nuclear armed because the risks of confrontation are incredibly high.

57:53It's why the Biden administration is so cautious. But essentially, four U.S. administrations and multiple ones in Europe have failed to do anything about this. So Russia first got involved in taking territory. People don't remember this, but it was in 2008 during the Beijing Olympics. So while the Olympics were going on, Russia seized part of North Georgia called Ossetia. That was under George W. Bush. And Bush later said that he looked into the eyes of Putin that he trusted him, etc. And then under Obama, there was the seizing Crimea. We looked the other way. Then under Trump won, there was lots of denigration of Ukrainian sovereignty.

58:41We looked the other way. Then under Biden, there's the full-scale war in Ukraine while there's more aggressive actions to others. and we provided defensive weapons, but we're very reluctant to provide offensive weapons because we're worried about provoking a nuclear confrontation. But what's happening is that Russia is violating international rule of law again and again and again and again. And this is so you can say that you want to make peace with them or whatever, but there's no indication that they're going to honor international law. They're going to continue doing that gambit. So at some point, there's going to have to be a confrontation to stop them.

59:22And that's incredibly dangerous. I don't know when exactly that comes, but that's going to come. And then in Asia, I believe that Xi Jinping is watching what's going on in Ukraine very carefully. And he clearly would like under his tenure to probably one of the reasons they reserve term limits to incorporate Taiwan. And I think that if Putin is successful, in meeting his objectives in Ukraine, which he might not be if Europe defends it. But if he were to be, then I think that the odds of China seizing Taiwan are very high. And I think that's just something, and then that moves us into a much more dangerous world, a world more like the 1930s.

1:00:06I hate to be such a doubter, like there's all sorts of optimistic things that are happening too. I do think this technology is incredibly cool that we're in the midst of. I think that we know what the potential solutions are to these problems. It's just very difficult to get the political will to deal with them. But objectively, as an investor, I think it's a time that great caution is prudent. Yeah, I think that is good advice. Paul, I appreciate you taking time with us again, sharing your insights. I always enjoy our conversations. Thanks so much.

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