In short
Insightful Investor Podcast Episode #90 Summary
Episode Title
90 - Adam Blitz: The Hedge Fund Playbook
Episode Description
Adam Blitz, the CEO and CIO of Evanston Capital Management, discusses actionable insights on hedge fund manager selection, real diversification, and distinguishing true alpha from beta. He explains the reasons behind the failure of most hedge funds to add value and shares tips on identifying those that genuinely do.
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Key Takeaways
Background of Adam Blitz
- Professional Journey:
- Started at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
- Worked with the quantitative research team that led to the foundation of AQR.
- Co-founded Evanston Capital Management in 2002.
- Manager Selection Expertise:
- Focus on manager selection and portfolio construction.
- Emphasis on treating people well and maintaining respectful relationships in the industry.
Evolution of the Hedge Fund Industry
- The hedge fund landscape has changed significantly since 2002, with periods of substantial inflows and outflows.
- Global Financial Crisis Impact:
- Bifurcation in allocator communities based on due diligence practices post-crisis.
- Current Trends:
- Institutionalization of the industry, with larger managers dominating the space.
- A resurgence of interest in hedge funds due to shifts in equity markets.
Value of Hedge Funds
- Alpha vs. Beta:
- Alpha: Return due to manager skill.
- Beta: Market return, easily replicable.
- Most hedge fund managers do not add value net of fees; only a small number exhibit true alpha.
- Fee Structures:
- Hedge funds typically charge higher fees than long-only funds, necessitating higher skill levels to justify these costs.
Identifying True Alpha
- Focus on defining the edge that managers bring, along with assessing:
- Portfolio construction practices.
- Performance during varied market conditions.
- Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis:
- Use of both quantitative metrics and qualitative insights to evaluate managers.
- Importance of understanding a manager’s strategy, particularly their risk management practices during stress periods.
Constructing a Diversified Portfolio
- Aim for diverse sources of alpha while managing exposures to beta.
- Assess manager betas specific to their strategies to determine true value add.
- Stress Testing:
- Use a combination of quantitative analytics and qualitative assessments to predict manager performance during market stress.
Challenges and Opportunities
- Market Conditions:
- High levels of passive investing create inefficiencies that can benefit skilled fundamental managers.
- Historically, active management has cyclical performance, indicating potential upcoming opportunities for hedge funds.
- Leverage and Risk:
- Caution around high leverage and quantitative strategies due to associated risks.
- Emphasis on understanding the risks involved in manager strategies, particularly concerning liquidity and leverage.
Conclusion
- The success of Evanston Capital lies in a consistent approach focused on identifying skilled managers, maintaining transparency, and adapting to market changes.
- The firm aims to add a little alpha consistently while ensuring alignment with their investors.
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Actionable Insights
- For investors:
- Focus on both quantitative and qualitative aspects when selecting hedge fund managers.
- Be cautious of high-fee structures without clear justification of alpha generation.
- Consider the manager's size relative to strategy; smaller managers may hold advantages in niche areas.
- For hedge fund managers:
- Maintain a strong and transparent partnership culture to attract and retain investors.
- Continuously adapt strategies to evolving market conditions and investor expectations.
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This episode of the Insightful Investor provides in-depth insights into the hedge fund industry, manager selection, and the critical distinctions between alpha and beta, offering valuable perspectives for both investors and finance professionals.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:05Welcome to the Insightful Investor Podcast, a weekly series that seeks to share industry, investment, investment, and market insights. We define insights as concepts that are counterintuitive, widely misunderstood, or underappreciated. In other words, unique ideas that you probably won't hear elsewhere. I'm Alex Shahidi, the host of the podcast and co-CIO of Evoke Advisors, a leading investment advisory firm. Learn more about our show at insightfulinvestor.org.
0:38My guest today is Adam Blitz. Adam is CEO and CIO of Evanston Capital Management, a leading hedge fund allocator that manages about$4.3 billion as of August 2025. Adam brings over two decades of institutional investment experience, starting at Goldman Sachs, serving as head trader at AQR, and co-founding Evanston Capital in 2002. He's known for his expertise in manager selection, portfolio construction, and navigating the evolving hedge fund landscape. Welcome, Adam. Thank you, Alex. Yeah, great to be here. Let's start with your background. Would you share your journey from Goldman Sachs to becoming head trader at AQR and then eventually founding Evanston Capital about two decades ago?
1:25Sure. Yeah, I appreciate that. And yeah, it was a very, very interesting start. I got very, very lucky, I would say. So I joined Goldman Sachs Asset Management right out of college, worked with the fixed income within GSAM for several months, but quickly made some friends in the quantitative research group within GSAM, shared love of football and fantasy football. And that's how I got to know some of the folks on that quantitative research team, which was in its very early days, led by Cliff Asnes and the team that eventually went on to start AQR. But I was, I think, within the first 10 people of joining that group and a lot of quantitative chops on that team, a lot of programmers.
2:13I wasn't any of that, but they just needed help. I mean, they were doing so well and growing so quickly. Just tried to pitch in wherever I could and quickly found a niche in terms of helping them sort of implement their strategies, trade their strategies. And I mean, what an amazing opportunity and amazing luck for me to have at that point in time to be able to join a group like that. So continued working at Goldman. I eventually went with the team a few months after they started AQR and continued working with them in terms of helping them trade and implement the strategies that they created. After a couple of years, even though I love the team, great, great people, but I decided I didn't really want to be a trader for my whole career.
3:01So I actually went back to Goldman Sachs, but in the prime brokerage area. And that's really the group within Goldman that services hedge funds in two primary ways, sort of helping them sell short securities and provide securities for them to borrow to be able to sell short in the market and also extend leverage to them. So I'd say that was a great experience working with hedge funds, different group of hedge funds in a very different manner. Got a lot of experience in risk management and how to evaluate funds from a risk perspective. And then got another lucky break when I heard that Dave Wagner, who had been the chief investment officer at Northwestern University, was going to start a new firm.
3:47one of the key people at AQR. I was very close with Dave Wagner. He thought the two of us would hit it off, and we did. I moved to Chicago, and Dave started the firm and was one of the first four people at Evanston Capital, and we started the firm. A lot of great breaks along the way there before helping start Evanston Capital. What did you learn from working with David in launching Edison Capital in partnership with him. Dave is just fantastic in so many ways. I mean, he was one of the, I would say, early endowment investors to really believe in that sort of Swenson model in terms of evolving beyond traditional stocks and bonds and evolving into strategies such as hedge funds.
4:36He also evolved into other alternative strategies of private equity and real estate, for example, to try to provide diverse sets of returns for the Northwestern endowment. And really what I learned from him is a lot of soft skills in addition to hard skills. So, I mean, Dave was excellent at manager selection, manager evaluation, but really A-plus as well in terms of just relationships, treating people well. And I think just a different vibe from Dave than you get from many on Wall Street, just a little, the edges were a little softer. And just his ability to treat everyone so kindly, I think, is something I really learned, right?
5:24And so it's, I think, a skill in this industry. when you meet with several hundred managers a year and you make a handful of investments, how do you say no to a manager in a very nice way where you can still keep the door open in a respectful way? How do you ask respectful questions? And I think Dave was always outstanding at that. And I would say there was a tactical element to that as well, in that a lot of the best managers are capacity constrained. And so by just being a good counterparty to them or treating them well, treating them respectfully, asking them good questions, giving them a pat on the back when things are going well, in addition to asking the tough questions when things are not going well, I think positioned Northwestern and then eventually Evanston Capital to be hopefully at the front of the line there when capacity was scarce with a manager.
6:20So Dave was excellent at all of that. So I'd say that that was on the manager side. On the business building side, I mean, Dave really believed in a partnership and equity culture right from day one. So it wasn't a setup of like, I'm the founder and I control everything and all the equity is mine and I'm going to be difficult at every turn. He believed very early in terms of pushing equity down into the organization, preparing for the next generation, really from the very early stages at Evanston Capital. And we've really followed that partnership model through today, where over half the people in our firm have equity in the business.
7:05And so I think he was really excellent at that partnership model as well. And so, you know, you sort of marry good manager selection, treating people well, you know, with that business and partnership culture. And I think all of that kind of set the foundation for the success we've had. That's great. How do you feel the hedge fund industry has changed over the last few decades? Yeah, boy, it's certainly changed a lot. I think back to our early days, started the firm in 2002, still pretty early days for the hedge fund industry. So a lot of money was flowing into the industry. And I would say as a fund of hedge funds, right, there's a period of time where fund of hedge funds were getting a lot of money, a lot of net inflows, and you would go to a capital introduction event and managers who you sort of scratch your head about, like, I can't believe that these guys are getting$500 million out of the gate would get$500 million out of the gate because investors needed places to put money.
8:06So that was a period kind of that 2002 to 2005, 2006, somewhere in that window where the hedge fund industry was really ramping up. You saw a lot of assets flow into the industry and you saw a lot of folks just pretty easily be able to start their firms. That was right after the stock market fell in half from 2002. That's exactly right. And hedge funds did pretty well during that period. And I think that certainly helped as well. Then you saw a lot of endowments, foundations, institutions get to the point where they were fully allocated. Then you had the global financial crisis, and hedge funds did reasonably well, certain strategies through that period.
8:47But then other strategies and folks like Madoff obviously put a black mark on other aspects of the industry. So you start to see a little more bifurcation, I think, in the allocator community, the fund-to-fund community as to, all right, who's doing good due diligence, who's really being selective on the managers versus who's just sort of taking money and throwing it at anyone. But then I'd say like after the global financial crisis, as you started to get into the 2010s and traditional equity markets were doing so well, private equity was doing so well, kind of the industry, you know, hit a bit of a peak, if you will.
9:26And I'd say the growth slowed down. It was harder to get new funds off the ground. And the industry became increasingly institutionalized in nature. You saw a smaller number of larger managers with big teams, big infrastructure where a lot of the assets were flowing. And we continue to think that there was always this pocket of interesting upstart managers. But I would say as an industry as a whole, it became much more institutionalized during that period. And as the years went on and traditional markets did well and hedge funds did sort of okay, but not great. You saw maybe the bloom come off the rose even further in the general hedge fund industry, and it became a little harder still for new funds to get off the ground.
10:16And then if you look at the 2010s, I think it was a very different decades from the ones that preceded it in terms of interest rates were near zero. Volatility was very low. It's a tough period for alpha in many ways, right? And so I think that also contributed to some of the bloom coming off the hedge fund rose. So hopefully we're seeing a little bit of a resurgence here in the last few years, but very different from when the industry was in its earlier innings, you know, over two decades ago. It's so interesting how the hedge fund industry tends to do well after you get bad returns and equities.
10:54And then it tends to do poorly when you get good returns and equities. And as we know, equity returns can be very cyclical and go through long periods of great returns, long periods of bad returns. And it's just so interesting how the hedge fund, almost the entire industry is impacted by the returns of the equity markets. That's exactly right. Well, the hedge fund industry as a whole claims to add value net of fees compared to cheap passive exposures like 60-40 or just index funds. From your perspective, what do you feel like the industry as a whole really looks like when you factor in fees and obviously markets are relatively efficient?
11:33Yeah, so we've long believed, and we said this right from day one and continue to think it today, that the average hedge fund adds no value net of fees. We've always thought that. I think that's true in active management. In general, whether it's long only or hedge funds, most managers are smart. Most of them might have a small edge. But in most cases, it's not enough of an edge to overcome the fees that they charge. Can hedge funds typically charge higher fees than long only managers? They typically charge higher fees than long only managers. And certainly, there are very high level of fees relative to the active risk that they're taking.
12:13And so they need a high level of skill in order to overcome those fees. Now, if you can find a skilled manager and they really are generating returns that are not due to any market influence or beta, that's a very valuable part of someone's portfolio and one should pay up for that. But on average, I would say that the industry as a whole does not add value net of fees. And as a firm, we'll see hundreds of managers in a given year and maybe make a small handful of investments. So among the ones we're seeing, we also don't think that there's that many who net of fees really add value. And I guess you could say the same thing in long only land, where you have managers trying to outperform the S &P 500 or a growth or value index.
13:01And you could also argue that on average, they don't add value either. Their fees are lower and maybe their skill on average is lower because they get paid less. And you get the smarter people to come into hedge fund land. They charge higher fees. They can go short. They have more flexibility. And maybe they do add more value than long-only, but their fees are higher. And so maybe the net on both sides isn't very much on average. I think that that's right. And I think there's a lot of studies which show a very high percentage of active managers just don't add value net of fees, especially over longer term timeframes.
13:34I mean, any given year or shorter period can be random, but over longer timeframes, it's just not a high percentage who add value net of fees. And obviously your job searching across all the managers in the world of hedge funds is to find the few that do add value. Let's transition into talking about that a little bit more. And what I'd like to do is start with two terms that you've already thrown out beta and alpha. So would you start by just explaining the concepts of beta and alpha and portfolio management and how you think about separating the two? Absolutely. So we really think of alpha as the component of a manager's return that is entirely due to their skill.
14:16So something that you couldn't replicate inexpensively out in the market, whereas beta is something that you can replicate easily and is a component of return that's not due to the manager's skills. So, I mean, the most obvious beta or the one that's probably talked about the most would be your equity market beta or the S &P 500, where I don't want to be paying a hedge fund manager to give me exposure to the S &P 500. Hedge fund manager fees are high. I want the fees to be based on the alpha that they're producing. I want the fees to go to getting exposures that are different from what I can get in the general market.
14:58But there can be betas beyond just the basic S &P 500 beta. You could have beta to an index of technology stocks, for example, right? Or an index of biotech stocks, right? Or credit market beta or small cap beta. Maybe those betas aren't quite as easy to access or as inexpensive to access as the S &P 500, but they're still relatively easy to access and relatively cheap to access. There are rare occasions where a manager might be so skilled that you might accept some level of beta in their strategy that you're paying higher fees for because the only way to access that alpha is by investing in a manager's strategy that might provide exposure to the beta as well.
15:43But in general, you really want to be focused on what is the manager's true skill here? And am I really getting access to that skill and paying fees to get that skill as opposed to some beta that I could get elsewhere cheaper? So let me restate that and tell me if this is accurate. So let's say a manager earns 12%. And you look at that and say, oh, 12 % is great. But if basically what they're doing is owning the stock market and the stock market was up 11%, then the excess return of the alpha that I'm simplifying is just that 1%. So they should only get credit for the 1%, not the 12 % that they earned because the 11 you could have just got by buying an index.
16:22But they're charging a fee on the entire 12%. And it's a relatively high fee. So as an allocator, you have to look through the return, the headline return, and look at the components of that and see how that's actually generated. And then determine if the majority of their return is skill, in which case you're willing to pay alpha fees. But if the majority of the return is something that is easily replicatable, then it's not really worth the fees. And as a whole, it seems like the industry is more on the former rather than the latter. Yeah, I think that's exactly right. I mean, I think in that example, right, if the manager said, hey, I'm going to charge you zero management fee and I'm going to charge you an incentive fee, but only above a S &P benchmark in that example, like that might be an aligning fee structure if I wanted that sort of long only exposure to contrast that fully.
17:13the other way if they're charging a 2 % management fee and then 20 % performance on the whole, even though that manager has some skill before the fees, when you net out those fees are going to dramatically underperform a simple S &P benchmark. And the way the industry is set up, you don't see a lot of managers that do what you just said in terms of, I'm just going to charge you in excess of the underlying beta exposure. It's so much easier just to charge a performance fee on the whole thing and a management fee on the whole thing. Because most investors don't really disaggregate the two. That's exactly right.
17:46We push for, we call them hurdles, where try to align as best we can the incentive fee to either the beta or the index that we think the manager, it's appropriate to benchmark them to. But I think that that's right. As the industry as a whole tends to have no hurdle, you're just charging an incentive fee over nothing, often combined with a higher management fee, right? So we try to align it the best we can, obviously, but I think your statement's right. So how do you identify and avoid hidden sources of beta when constructing a diversified portfolio? And what is your process for analyzing these return streams?
18:25Yeah, certainly. So at the individual manager level, right, I think it's very important, obviously, to understand what is the edge that we think each manager brings to the table. We really try to have diverse sources of edges that our managers bring to the table. So, you know, we'll bucket hedge funds into four categories, long short equity, which is stock picking types of strategies. We tend to have managers who have a sector of expertise for the most part. So depending on the manager sector, depending on their net exposure to equity markets, each of those long short equity managers might have a different sort of beta that we use to evaluate them, right?
19:06So if we have a technology-focused manager who's running on average with a 50 % net exposure, we might say that an appropriate sort of benchmark for them or beta for them would be 0.5 of a technology index or something like that. And then when we look at their return stream, we would say, all right, here's their return stream, here's their net exposure, here's the technology index. When we strip out that beta exposure to the technology, index, are they really adding value net of that exposure? Is their true alpha and stock picking skill on top of that? It could be that it's something where technology stocks have dramatically outperformed the S &P 500.
19:50So if you use an S &P 500 beta, it might look like the technology manager is adding a lot of alpha, but what they're really doing is you're capturing a lot of alpha just by comparing them wrongly to the S &P 500 instead of the technology index. So long way of saying that for each manager, based on their strategy, based on their net exposure, we try to decide like what's the most appropriate beta to analyze their strategy and then see if they're adding alpha returns, even when we take that out. And that would, you know, I gave the technology example, but that would carry through obviously to other sectors within long short equity, and it would carry through to our more credit oriented strategies, just really trying to say, what is the skill that this manager is providing?
20:38The reason you do that is because ultimately what you're trying to get out of these managers is a return stream that is both attractive and diversifying. So the attractive part comes in understanding what the net return is and the net alpha. And then the diversifying part, it's the alpha that's diversifying, not necessarily the exposure to technology stocks and to other markets. Is that accurate? That's exactly right. Yeah. We're looking for diverse sources of alpha, right? As many as we can, you know, when building the portfolio. Now, we have different strategies that themselves might target different betas at the end of the day.
21:18Like we might have a strategy that explicitly is designed to be fully absolute return and have no beta to equity or fixed income markets. Most hedge fund strategies, when you aggregate them together, tend to have some level of small, modest, positive beta to equity markets. So it could be that there's a manager who has terrific alpha. Again, you can only access that through a structure that also provides you some level of beta. But as long as that beta is appropriate within the context of the objectives of our overall fund, and again, their fee structure is appropriate given their strategy, then we'd be okay with that as well.
21:59But you're correct. We're trying to find as many different sources of alpha as we possibly can. And I think that approach in long-short equity where we're investing generally in managers with different sector focuses, there's not a lot of overlap in the positions generally that our long-short equity managers are accessing and not a lot of overlap in terms of their alpha if we're building the portfolio correctly. And I guess an important concept here is alpha by definition is diversifying because it's a skill-based return. Manager A's skill is probably different from manager B's skill and manager C and so on.
22:40And you start putting all those together and you can achieve a relatively attractive return with relatively low risk because they don't necessarily go up and down together. That's exactly right. So managers designed to have no correlation or beta, hopefully, to equity markets. At the individual manager level, they have pretty high volatilities. Like if you were to just say, hey, manager one, let me look at that manager, they often can have pretty high volatility in and of themselves, right? But if you combine seven or eight or 10 of them and they're all doing different things, even if they're all individually running at fairly high levels of volatility, when you combine them together, the total portfolio is a fairly modest level of volatility because they are providing alpha and there's not a lot of overlap in what the managers are doing.
23:27And so that portfolio construction approach for each individual manager is pretty high level of volatility. Therefore, hopefully can get to a pretty high expected return. But if they're doing different things and you combine them together, the goal, obviously, at the end of the day would be a modest level of volatility, but you're still retaining a pretty high level of expected return because each individual manager is taking a reasonably high level of risk. And how do you think about diversification during stress periods? I'll use a cliche here. It's both quantitative and qualitative. So certainly you can run a lot of analytics and look back and try to replicate stressed periods based on managers' prior return streams, based on their current positions.
24:13And I think that that's reasonably accurate 98, 99 % of the time. Historically, though, when you look back at stress periods, a lot of quantitative models have not done a great job of predicting just how bad things can get in stresses. And so what we really try to do is marry all the quantitative work, which is good, again, 98, 99 % of the time, with just sitting in a room and saying, how do we think each of our managers would perform based on their current positioning, their current size, their current leverage, their current counterparty risk, if we were to have various stressed or shocked market scenarios.
24:54And what's interesting is that you might have managers who are uncorrelated, let's say, if the S &P is down 5%, right? They're beta neutral, like they're just uncorrelated in that period. But if the market's down 20 % or 30 % in a short period of time, they might do very, very poorly because it might be a strategy with a high level of leverage, right? And maybe there's risk of some margin calls or counterparty risk could be something like you had in 2008 with convertible arbitrage, which I think is the classic example of a strategy that in the rearview mirror prior to 2008 looked uncorrelated, high sharp ratio.
25:35People thought it was long volatility, all these great things. But what actually happened is because so many convertible arbitrage managers were doing very similar things. They had very similar portfolios. They had high levels of leverage. They all used the same counterparties that when struggles were happening in other strategies and people started selling down their convert arb strategy, all of a sudden with all that leverage, you had people selling relatively illiquid securities down at the same time. And all of a sudden, the strategy that you think would be the most protective in a time of stress ends up being the worst performing in that time of stress.
26:13And no quantitative model would have predicted that. So the goal of that, we call it our qualitative sort of risk approach or qualitative correlation matrix is not to be precisely right down to the hundredth of a decimal point. It's just trying to think through which strategies might be more prone to a sharp drawdown in a time of stress, and especially in a way that a quantitative model might not predict. And often real struggles and stressed events come down to some combination of leverage and illiquidity. So mark-to-market risk is very important. It's meaningful. Standard deviation does a good job of measuring that.
26:55But also permanent loss of capital is another measurement of risk. and leverage and illiquidity are the sorts of things that can exacerbate that permanent loss of capital. If you get a tap on your shoulder about a margin call, right, and five other managers are getting a similar tap on their shoulder and they use high levels of leverage or the underlying positions are not very liquid, you can have a real risk event unfold very, very quickly. And again, the quantitative stuff does not do a great job of predicting those types of stresses. And so I think one way to mitigate risk in a stress scenario is just to manage how much exposure you have to strategies with high levels of leverage, right?
27:42How much exposure you have to strategies with high levels of illiquidity where investors might be able to redeem at a faster cadence than would be warranted by the liquidity, the underlying securities. Obviously, a big part of your strategy is to identify managers who have alpha and those who truly add value. Would you walk us through, just from a high level, your process for identifying those? Obviously, you can look at past returns, but what else is included in your process to identify those managers? Yeah. So a lot goes into the process, obviously, but it's really trying to find, you know, what's a definable edge that the manager brings to the table.
28:23So often within long, short equity, that might mean a sector of expertise like we've talked about, combined with not managing a lot of money and the ability, therefore, to be able to go short positions that you think will go down, maybe in a mid-cap stock that might not move the needle of performance with a larger manager. So you take a step back there and say, I can find a group maybe in the technology space and they've spent their careers in the technology space, experts in that space. They don't manage a ton of money. They have a relatively small team. That's the sort of thing that, okay, I can start to see how they might have an edge in evaluating technology stocks in a way that more generalist managers managing$20 billion might not be able to.
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29:15Or even if they do find some up-and-coming stock, they might not be able to size it in a way that's meaningful in the context of their portfolio. Within credit strategies, we look for managers who might have experience in past credit cycles and restructuring events and people in today's environment where you have more of these sort of creditor-on-creditor types of issues who we think would be very strong at the negotiating table. So those are the sorts of things that we're looking at, really defining that investment edge. The other thing I'd say on investment edge, and I think people in our industry spend a ton of time, probably too much time on, give me your best stock idea, right?
29:57Or tell me about this one distressed deal that went well and not nearly enough time on portfolio construction, right? How do you size things? When do you get in? When do you get out? How much illiquidity are you willing to withstand? How would you be able to get out of the position if you're wrong, right? how do you imagine your portfolio evolving as your assets evolve over time? All of those sorts of things are the actual things that matter to performance much more than a one-off example of an individual stock that the manager might be excited about. So we really try to spend a lot of time on portfolio structuring and implementation.
30:39So all of that's what I'd call the hard stuff on the investment side. We also pay a ton of attention to the soft side. Why is the lead person doing this? What's their motivation? Do they have a genuine passion and love for the industry? Are they doing it solely as a means to make a lot of money? What is really their motivation? Because we found that true staying power comes from a real passion for the industry, a real competitiveness to want to continue to do well. And the managers who might fizzle out, it might be more they say, boy, I've got great returns. Now I can raise a ton of assets. And they turn into business builders or empire builders.
31:21Or it's like, wow, I've done really well. I booked some nice incentive fees for a couple of years. Now I'm going to spend more time skiing and golfing and doing all of those sorts of things, which is great. There's nothing wrong with that. But from an investor perspective, it might suggest that they're taking their eye off the ball or aren't as engaged as they used to be. So really just trying to understand what's the motivation of these folks? What's the morale of their team? Have they set their firms up in a partnership sort of way where there's real alignment among the team? the best firms, the ones with the most staying power, they have an investment as you're very strong in portfolio construction, but they're so passionate and competitive that it's really for them that the scorecard that matters the most to them is the performance, not the AUM or, you know, or things like that.
32:13And that just involves judgment and experience. I mean, no one's ever going to get everything exactly right on that, but you know, you can see movies play out, you know, you know, you've seen things before in terms of how firms evolve and people evolve and we can make judgments on the ones that we think will continue to perform well. And then we can make judgments where we say, you know, yeah, someone's performed great in the past. That's wonderful. But the firm today looks so different from the way it looked three years ago when those returns were generated that it's almost irrelevant, right?
32:47In terms of trying to project how they're going to do in the, you know, in the future. You've probably met thousands of managers in your career. Is it a fair assessment to state that the average manager is relatively smart, you know, very successful, and they would probably be impressive to somebody who only met them. But part of your work is to get the lay of the land of all the managers, because in effect, they're competing against each other. And so effectively, the bar is higher for what can add value because the players are just so, so smart and so good at what they do. Is that a fair assessment?
33:23That absolutely is a fair assessment, right? And we always, and maybe this is an obvious statement, right? But when we're evaluating managers, right, you're not evaluating them on their presentation skills, right? You're evaluating them on how you think that they'll do in terms of managing the portfolio, managing the firm, and really being passionate about what they're doing. So there's some cases where the person you meet at the cocktail hour who's so impressive and articulate actually is a great manager. And it could be that the great manager is very shy. And, you know, the last thing in the world that they would want to do would be to be at that cocktail hour impressing people.
34:00And I think it's very hard to be completely objective or completely avoid, you know, the notion of if someone presents well, you think that that's correlated with their ability to manage the portfolio well. It's hard to ignore that completely. But again, that's really our job is to say, boy, that person may be bumbled over their words a little bit, right? But they really have a strong process, a strong team, a strong culture. I think they're an excellent manager. This person is, man, boy, they're really articulate and they're really fun to talk to, right? But I'm not as sure on that actual ability to manage the portfolio.
34:38Maybe they have some other end game in mind, you know, personally, which is not really, again, related to how we think they're going to manage the, you know, the portfolio. But I think it's right. But the average person you meet in the industry, very, very smart, but again, not smart enough maybe to overcome the fees that they charge on average. Obviously, part of the analysis is past performance, but do you find persistence in past performance considering that most of these manders are operating in a relatively efficient space of public markets? Or is it not reliable to just look at past performance and just take the great performance of the past and assume they'll continue in the future?
35:19I would think of past performance. It's just one of many data points in trying to project how they're going to do in the future. Our whole job, the reason we exist, right, picking managers, is to project how someone's going to do in the future, right? and investing in someone because they did well seven years ago, anyone can sort of do that. It's all about projecting the future. So certainly if someone has generated a good track record in the past, that's a positive. I mean, it's certainly not a negative, but one has to really dig into that track record, right? Like what were the assets that the manager was managing during the period where they produced a good track record?
35:57Was it truly alpha, right? Or was there some beta tailwind that they happen to ride during that period that once that beta tailwind turns into a headwind, it's going to really negatively impact their performance. Did they take a swing for the fences and got lucky and therefore have a really good track record, but you're not really sure what's the real edge here? Why is this person and team so good? To us, it's always about what is the edge that they're bringing to the table? Can we articulate it? Do we understand it? Do we think it's replicatable in the future? So certainly if someone's done well in the past, again, that's a positive, but it's just one pretty small data point.
36:39I think if someone's done poorly in the past over a long period of time, I mean, that's probably a negative data point as well. On the competitive point, I mean, it's interesting. I actually have a little bit of a I actually think it's one of the least competitive times for certain strategies that it's been in 15 years, especially in some of the more equity-oriented strategies. Because you have so much money in passive investing. You have so much money in a small group of hedge funds, pod shops, and others who generally do quicker turnover investing. I actually think the competition in true fundamental stock picking strategies is less than it's been in some time, which should create, we think, much better return opportunities, again, for the very small number of managers who really have an edge.
37:34And so I think if someone has demonstrated good performance over a long period of time and they're still very passionate about what they're doing and they have the right team dynamics, I think the setup going forward is especially, you know, good. So you talked about performance being part of the analysis, but not a huge part. But when you're evaluating managers, how do you prevent strong past performance from subconsciously influencing your broader qualitative assessment and even maybe some of the quantitative assessment? Absolutely. Yeah, it's hard. I mean, we certainly, we try, we try when we talk about it all the time, right?
38:11Trying to not be overly reliant on past performance because it's always in your face, right? I mean, if someone's doing well, you can rest assured that they're going to contact us, right? Their marketing person's going to contact us. And if they're doing poorly, you can rest assured that they're probably not going to contact you, right? Unless they're like, wow, I've gone through this tough period, but I'm just telling you, my portfolio is so incredible today, right? That even though I've struggled the last year or two, now's the time you should be investing. But look, we're all wired a certain way, right?
38:47And it's hard to completely avoid the periods of the managers where you look at their tracker, you say, hey, it's strong, and I really think these people are good, and I want to invest with them. But again, that's really our job is to not rely solely on the past performance. It's just one data point. And again, all understanding how are they set up in the future to continue to deliver that performance. I've noticed among investors, there's a great tendency to want to hire the managers who, obviously, you want a good long-term track record, but there's also an emphasis on the last, let's say, three or five years.
39:25And when they're shorter term, three to five years is strong, there's a greater tendency to feel like, oh, there's good momentum, I want to invest. How do you think about the shorter term periods, like, let's say, three to five years? And then also within that, how do you think about managers who have maybe underperformed three to five years, but have a really strong long-term track record. In many ways, I think that basic logic is backward, right? You know, like managers who you think are really good, but have had a difficult three-year period. Again, assuming everything else is set up, right?
39:57The person is fully motivated, the team is strong, and the morale is good. Investors aren't leaving, right? Which would cause the manager to be on their back foot. But let's say that all that checks out, then you're probably buying into a manager, right? who you think is very good, their portfolio has probably underperformed and is therefore probably attractively valued, right? And the opportunity set going forward is even more attractive than usual, right? Conversely, the manager that's done great over the last three years, presumably some of their key positions have done well and are probably less attractive than they were three years ago.
40:36I mean, not in every case, but maybe as a general statement, they're probably less attractive than they were three years ago. Probably the manager's assets under management is higher, if nothing else, due to the strong performance period. So all of a sudden, you've got a manager who's managing more money and their underlying positions have either played out or are less attractive than they were several years ago. That's not seem as strong a time to enter the manager. Now, there might be other circumstances. It could be the manager's like, okay, I'm about to close and this is your last opportunity to get in.
41:15If we think that the setup is still excellent with the manager and they're not managing too much and their motivation is good, we might go in after a strong performance period. and vice versa. There might be many cases where a manager, we really like a manager, we think they're good and they've struggled the last few years. But again, maybe the morale of the firm isn't very good because of the period of underperformance, right? Or maybe investors are fleeing. And so it could be that the manager's having to sell down positions that they like and it's causing some stress on their portfolio. So like, yes, in theory, I want to be adding in this manager, but just the reality of the situation makes it not a good decision.
41:59But you're exactly right. I mean, managers tend, what you're describing is kind of like, you don't want to sort of buy high and sell low, right? I mean, you want to buy low, sell high. And we've had cases where we've redeemed from managers after very strong performance periods, and they think we're crazy. How can you redeem after this strong performance period? Well, a lot of the ideas you talked about have played out, which is fantastic. You don't seem as excited about the new crop of ideas. You're managing double the assets you were before the performance run, and you have fewer ideas. Seems like a good time to pull back on our investment.
42:39And we've had cases where we've redeemed from managers who have struggled, where it's like, how can you redeem now? Are my portfolios so attractive? And it's like, well, your key partner just left, right? Or boy, other investors are kind of worried. And they're pulling, your portfolio is not that liquid and that might cause some stress. So again, yeah, in theory, we like you here, but given the totality of the dynamics, we need to redeem. So we really try to evaluate each situation individually, both going into the manager and also coming out of the manager. I think one assumption in the comments that you just made is that there isn't great persistence of outperformance through time and manager returns can be cyclical where you have good periods followed by bad periods followed by good periods.
43:26And obviously the turning points are not easily distinguishable, but there is some, you know, cyclicality in manager returns. And so you just have to be mindful of that as you're doing your analysis. That's exactly right. Is there a reason you tend to favor smaller managers or those with deep sector expertise for certain strategies and then also larger managers for areas such as distressed investing? Yeah. So we tend to favor smaller managers, particularly on the long, short equity side. And there's several reasons for that. One is more general in nature, which is when a manager's not managing a lot of money.
44:05And again, this is assuming that their business is strong and all of that is set up extremely well from an operational perspective. But when they're not managing a lot of money, they tend to be hungry, just fully focused on performance. We can get in and negotiate often fairly attractive fees and terms, certainly relative to the manager's rack rate. So you have all of those factors. But then on top of that, and again, especially in long, short equity, there's a ton of stock ideas that are not large cap in nature. They might be small cap. They might be mid-cap. They might not be super, super liquid.
44:41And so if you're managing $500 million, you can put positions on that in smaller names that really move the needle of performance. And especially in very fast-moving sectors, technology, healthcare, examples like that, companies can become obsolete very quickly, right? And so if you can put on a short position in a mid-cap type of stock, again, that's going to move the needle of a$500 million manager in a way that it wouldn't move the needle of a$10 billion manager. So that's just a built-in competitive advantage that the smaller manager has. Now, larger managers also have some advantages, right?
45:23Infrastructure and things like that. But again, if you're a smaller team focused on a smaller, narrow area, technology stocks, real estate stocks, financials, healthcare, energy, whatever it might be, you can really be expert in that particular area. And we think that that lends itself very well to smaller managers. There's some strategies, I think distressed debt would be an example where a higher level of AUM can actually be helpful. Too high a level of AUM might start to be a headwind. But a higher level of AUM, you can be in a driver's seat in terms of driving or restructuring, being a key person at negotiating table vis-a-vis other creditors in a company, vis-a-vis the company itself in terms of negotiating something that's in your best interest.
46:13If you're too small, it can be hard to do that. And I would say that that's particularly true in the distressed debt area, when you get into more on the run sort of credit that's not quite distressed, like again, there too, it might be helpful to be smaller and go into names that might not move the needle of larger managers. And then I'd say on the macro front, we've had managers of all sizes, right? I think there's certainly cases where larger managers with great infrastructure, great technology. That becomes one of their competitive advantages where the size really works in their favor. The underlying strategies have a lot of liquidity and they can execute it at a high level of AUM.
46:59But then there's also macro strategies that lend themselves to smaller AUM. If you're trading smaller commodity markets, for example, or emerging market interest rates, or things that would be hard to move the needle of a very large manager. So, again, it really depends on the individual manager and the strategy they're pursuing. But I think the broader statement is there's a ton of alpha opportunities that are not large in nature, right, that can only move the needle if you're not managing a lot of money. almost by definition, when you start managing tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, the opportunities to generate alpha narrow into a smaller and smaller set of opportunities.
47:45And there might be more overlap of underlying alpha just because the managers can only go so many places if they manage too much money. It sounds like you're looking for the sweet spot for each type of strategy where there's enough assets to be able to hire talent to evaluate the opportunities, but not too much in assets where you hit capacity constraints in terms of what you can invest in. That's right. Yeah. I noticed you tend to have either low or no allocation to managers that use high leverage or have quantitative approaches. Would you comment on that? Yeah, certainly starting with the high leverage part, I just think this continues to be an underappreciated risk in the market.
48:34There's justification for leverage, full stop. I mean, if you can combine strategies and risk parity is an example of this, right, where I might want exposure to traditional stock and bond markets. bond markets have much less volatility than equity markets. So I'm going to lever up the bond exposure in order to get to a similar volatility as equities. That's an appropriate use of leverage if properly managed. But leverage has a lot of fat tail risks that I don't think are fully appreciated in terms of you're reliant on a prime broker. This is where some of the prime broker experience is helpful, right?
49:13You're relying on a prime broker to extend you that leverage. If they start to see cracks in a particular strategy or cracks in the market, they might say, you know what? I was comfortable extending you six times leverage on your strategy, but given the new dynamics in the market or given the risks in the market, right? Or given some of the struggles in an individual strategy, you need to take that down to five times or four times. I mean, the margin call would be the term most people would use for that, right? And if you have a lot of people running strategies that utilize similar risk models, right, which are basically telling them you can run at similar levels of leverage, and the prime brokers are enabling them to do that, there are states of the world where those strategies can start to struggle at the same time.
50:06Multiple managers face margin calls at the same time, and you have a very rapid kind of unwind. You saw this in quantitative equity in 2007, where for a few-day period there, a lot of quantitative equity strategies really, really struggled, right? Well beyond what any quantitative risk management approach would say. I think in pod shops today, you have a lot of managers doing pretty similar things using high levels of leverage. In all likelihood, those risk models are fine. In the ordinary course of markets, everything's fine and that level of leverage is okay. But if you have something out of left field where all of a sudden some of those strategies are stressed and they all have to delever at the same time, leverage just quickly can exacerbate their returns.
50:54And you've seen it, you know, almost every hedge fund blow up, right? If you go through the past has been, again, some combination of leverage and illiquidity. So we much prefer to get the risk just from active exposure, right? To individual securities, individual trade ideas, themes, rather than taking, let's say, a mediocre idea, right, and trying to get my risk and return by levering that mediocre idea up. Quantitative strategies, you know, we have had some exposure to quantitative strategies. We have nothing against quantitative strategies. I think it's one of the harder strategies to really understand what a manager's source of edge is, right?
51:38So you can certainly look back historically, hey, here's how they've done. But most quantitative managers, not all to be sure, but most quantitative managers put up a little bit of a wall in terms of like, hey, you know, I'm not really going to tell you what my secret sauce is or what my edge is or what my factors kind of in a broad sense are. I'm not really going to tell you how they come together. you know, I've got eight different versions of what I'm doing and we're keeping all the good stuff for the internal partners and, you know, you're getting version two or three or four. How as an investor do you really know what's driving those decisions as to what goes into what particular fund that a manager might be running?
52:21And, you know, the only rule we have really is, you know, we just don't invest in something we don't understand, right? So I think Anyone can go back and look at a quantitative manager's historical track record and say, boy, that's a good track record I want to get in. That's not a ton of analysis goes into that. But the whole thing is about prospectively. Here's why I think this manager will do well going forward, right? Based on the strategy that I'm invested in today, based on the current team today, based on their AUM today. Here's why I think this thing will do well going forward. And often we don't have a lot of enough information to really have a strong, informed view of that beyond, hey, it's a brand name manager with a nice track record.
53:05So no one's going to fire me if I go into that manager. But that's not why we exist, right? And that's not, I don't think, good decision making to do that. So we have had, again, quantitative investments. they've tended to be with smaller managers or with managers where we we feel like we really understand you know what their edge is and what we know what they're doing and i suppose the reason that's important on the quantitative side is we know that every manager goes through a stretch of underperformance so when you hire that manager and knowing they're going to go through that stretch of underperformance if you can't really dissect why they're underperforming if you think that's going to revert back to some mean that's historical, then you're probably not going to have the conviction to stay in, in which case it's probably not good to get in in the first place.
53:55Yeah. So if I know it's a quant manager and early AQR days, value momentum, we're two core factors. And you can sort of tell, all right, here's how value is doing, here's how momentum is doing. I know it's been a bad period for value. Maybe they're underperforming, but you understand why. And it's probably to our earlier discussion, that's probably why it's more attractive prospectively after that rougher period than it was historically. If you don't really know what the manager's doing or what the strategy is and they're struggling, it's very hard to articulate or have a lot of confidence in a view that they're going to rebound from that.
54:36I mean, they might rebound, but you don't really know what caused the drawdown in the first place. Conversely, if a quant manager is doing great and you can't get your arms around why, it's like, wow, this is great. It's uncorrelated. They're doing really well, but they're not giving me any information. I'm sure there's many cases where it's like, yeah, they really are skilled at what they do, but it's just not something that we can invest in because there's far more cases where there's some hidden risk or exposure or leverage or something inherent in that strategy that eventually will rear its ugly head, right?
55:14And if you don't understand that going in, I think it's problematic, right, going forward. And eventually it's going to catch up with you. And going back to your comments about being very cautious about managers with high leverage, the way I think about that is you want managers with high alpha. If they have low alpha, with a lot of leverage to try to get to the same return, that's a very different type of return stream, particularly as it relates to the question we talked about earlier, which is during stress periods. You want managers that have good returns that are diversifying. If a lot of the parts of that return come from leverage and you have a stress period, then there may be much less diversifying than you originally thought.
55:57I think that's exactly right. And look, a lot of risk is is evaluated in our world in standard deviation format, right? Which assumes a normal distribution. And one thing that high levels of leverage can lead is an increase in the left tail of that distribution, right? I mean, when you lever, right, you know that you're paying costs to do that leverage. And you know, you have a fat tail on the left side of getting a margin call or having a forced liquidation or something like that, but you don't get any right tail of that distribution. There's no opposite of a margin call that's going to work in your favor.
56:36So again, that's not to say all leverage is bad or anything like that, but I think excessive levels of leverage or levering up strategies that you don't really understand or you don't really know what the risks are, or you don't have a good handle on their liquidity profile, or you don't have a handle on how often the investors can redeem, right? I think it can be very, very problematic. You've shared some great insight about picking managers in the world of hedge funds, but which elements of this type of analysis do you find broadly applicable across all asset managers outside of the world of hedge funds?
57:15And in which aspects do you feel are unique and particularly important for evaluating hedge funds specifically. Certainly some of the softer stuff I think is applicable throughout. What are the motivations of the people managing the firm today? Do they love what they're doing? Are they passionate about it? Are they returns-focused versus AUM-focused? Do they have a good partnership culture within their firm? How rigorous is the analysis they're doing? All those sorts of things I think would be true in any asset class. And I think that's important. And then I think having an area of expertise, it's not sort of required in every situation.
57:54But I think in general, the more you can narrow down and say, if I'm in PE or VC, right, and I'm really skilled at identifying software companies, right, or I'm really good at energy, right, or whatever it might be, and you're not managing a ton of money, I think you have a higher chance. of success, all else equal, and a higher chance to go into interesting ideas. Now, I think unlike in hedge funds, I think there's certain strategies where heft might be an advantage in and of itself, right? I mean, like in venture capital, being a brand name, even if you're managing more money, if you're the seal of approval for a new company, you might have a big competitive advantage over some small upstart, right?
58:39Maybe the small upstart could just as easily identify the new venture company to invest with, but because they don't provide the same seal of approval, the deal might go to the larger manager. You don't really have that in hedge funds where maybe there is slightly in an activist sort of strategy, but for the most part, there's not like a seal of approval if manager A is investing in a public company versus smaller manager B. And then I think always understanding, again, what's the leverage? What's the liquidity? You're seeing a lot of structures recently where, in my mind, the underlying investments are illiquid or fairly illiquid.
59:19And they're being wrapped in structures that purport to offer high levels of liquidity, or you can access them on a frequent basis. And it's easy to get into these things. But I think kind of concerning oneself with how am I going to get out of this right down the line five years, seven years, 10 years from now is very, very important. And I think you have those issues to some degree in hedge funds, right, where strategies can get more illiquid over time, or you could have a divergence between investor liquidity and the liquidity of the underlying positions, but probably to less of a degree than you might have in other alternative asset classes.
1:00:01You touched on this earlier, but how do you evaluate the shift towards passive strategies like index funds and ETFs versus long short equity managers opportunity to generate alpha? Yeah, I'm super excited about it. And I know there's a lot of disagreement on this or a lot of different views on this. But I think that the more people who are trading securities who are price insensitive, the better the opportunity set is for true fundamental stock pickers, right? Like passive management by definition, almost, you know, your money's flowing in and you're buying something at whatever the price is that day, whether it's an appropriate price or an inappropriate price.
1:00:43Same with ETFs, right? I mean, maybe not to the extreme of like an S &P index, but basically money comes into an ETF, money comes out of an ETF, stocks are being bought or sold, whatever the price is that day, no matter what fundamental price is justified. So all these people are trading securities. The bulk of the volume every day is probably due to people who are or actors who are really insensitive to the prices that they're buying or selling the individual stocks at. So on a daily basis, there's just a lot of noise, right? But if you're a fundamental stock picker and you say, you know what, I really love industrial company A.
1:01:23And industrial company A every single day is moving up or down based on ETF flows or passive flows and all this. But I feel really good about industrial company A's prospects over the next 12 to 18 months. And I'm going to live with this short-term noise because eventually I know that their earnings are going to be strong or there's going to be some new successful initiative or whatever it might be. Same thing on the short side where, boy, this company is really struggling and it's only being lifted because it's in some ETF that's getting inflows. inflows. Well, eventually over the course of time, the earnings matter, the company's fortunes matter.
1:02:04And so I think of it as having more price inefficiency, probably more volatility on the way to having that inefficiency reverse, but much more opportunity for really skilled, long-term stock pickers. I really think of it as a white space right now, kind of long-term fundamental stock picking. This should be true long only or long short. I think the competition, again, is as low as I've seen it in a very long period of time. And I would contrast this with the 2006, 2007 period where anyone could start up a long short equity hedge fund, it seemed, they'd get money thrown at them, huge commonality of positions, huge overlap of positions across managers.
1:02:50And you just don't have a lot of that today, certainly as much as you used to. So I'm really, really excited about long-short equity. We have been for a few years here. I think we've been outspoken about that. And I think it's a contrarian view. And obviously there's been massive inflows into index funds the last probably decade as those indexes have done so well. And again, as we know, markets can be cyclical. That's right. And some of my favorite charts are these charts showing passive versus active, which performs better. And if you look at it, it's almost like in 10-year cycles, right? Where passive will do better than active and then active does better the next 10 years.
1:03:36And the pendulum swings where everyone then goes into active managers and then that gets too crowded and then passive does well, right? And certainly last decade was a great one for passive managers. The decade before was a great one for active managers, right? This decade, active managers are starting to perform well again. And again, all this in the backdrop of like we've talked about a lot today of the average active manager isn't very good. But I think the opportunity sets for the ones who are good today is really outstanding. Evanston Capital has survived as a fund of funds, while many of your competitors have disappeared due to multiple layers of fees.
1:04:19But what has allowed you to persist in the changing landscape? Yeah, I mean, we really have tried to just stick to our knitting. I think we've always been fully transparent in the way we think. And I think the messages that you would have heard from us 23 years ago are very similar to the messages you would hear today, right? Our whole job is to identify good managers who have a real edge in markets, who are passionate and competitive about what they're doing, know when to move on from those managers, when the culture has changed or their AUM has grown too fast or whatever it might be. and just rinse and repeat that, right?
1:04:58And not try to get overly bogged down on, let's maximize our AUM, right? Or let's build a big business and have a gazillion separate accounts or set up daily mutual funds, right? Or all of these sorts of things that I'm sure would have added a lot of value from a business perspective. But when you cut through it, I think, and I hope our investors just appreciate the consistency of approach, right? In terms of just what we're trying to do and really find that alpha, find those skilled managers, package it in ways that are easy to access, you know, be open and transparent and easy to work with, be likable to our managers, you know, all of those sorts of things and just rinse and repeat and, you know, try to, you know, we talk about like, try to add a little bit of alpha each day just by making good decisions and doing good work, right?
1:05:53And, you know, rinse and repeat. And there's going to be time periods where you're not paid for that, right? And there's going to be periods where you're probably overpaid in terms of performance for that. But over time, just following that strategy, that process, rinse, repeat, right? Being very consistent in it, I think leads to that kind of persistent long-term, you know, long-term edge. And given that there's fewer players like us, right, I think in the market, I think the opportunity set prospectively is very interesting right now because the competition is less for what we do probably than it has been, you know, which is kind of the premise of your question.
1:06:36Well, Adam, this has been great. I appreciate you sharing all your insights and also for explaining some complex concepts in simple terms. I appreciate that. And I'm sure our audience does as well. Thank you. Thanks, Alex. Great discussion. Really appreciate it. Thank you.
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From the publisher
Adam is CEO and CIO of Evanston Capital Management, overseeing $4.3 billion as of August 2025. Adam shares actionable insights on manager selection, real diversification, and identifying true alpha versus beta—highlighting why most hedge funds fail to add value and how to spot the few that genuinely do.




