In short
How drones, robotics, and autonomy are reshaping warfare, and why the U.S. military is structurally unprepared for long, contested conflicts; includes discussion of Ukraine, Iran, and readiness/munitions production, plus ethics and “human-in-the-loop” constraints.
Guest
Chris Brose, president and chief strategy officer of Anduril (defense tech). Background includes policy advising for Condoleezza Rice and John McCain; author of a book on the high-tech military future.
Key claims
- U.S. strategy was built on assumptions of quick wars and technological dominance; adversaries now create contested, attritional battles requiring mass munitions and scalable systems.
- Autonomy is advancing via “hider-finder” targeting and affordable one-way attack drones; Ukraine’s endurance is tied to these systems.
- U.S. munitions production (e.g., Tomahawk/Patriot) lags demand; spending rose but output did not, making readiness for major wars weak.
- Anduril builds both hardware and tightly coupled autonomy software (Lattice) for offensive and integrated air/missile defense.
Notable examples
- Ukraine: early sprint to Kyiv failed; later drones became central to killing and operations.
- Iran: one-way drone boats threaten the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. strikes didn’t end the conflict.
- Anduril defense: Pulsar electronic warfare “force field” layered defense; counter-drone testing and autonomous fighter prototype issues are acknowledged as hard to fix.
- Hardware example: Collaborative Combat Aircraft (“robotic fighter jet”) as autonomous wingman-style capability.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Future of High-Tech Warfare
1:00 to 2:00
Exploration of how drones and autonomous weapons are reshaping warfare.
“And your professional work puts you at the center of this shift.”
Military Assumptions and Reality
2:00 to 4:00
Discussion on outdated military assumptions post-Iraq war and current military context.
“So if you kind of look at, I'd say, the assumptions that we have been operating under for, you know, call it the past 30, 40 years, I think that's what's sort of driven the kind of military that we have.”
Lessons from Ukraine
4:00 to 6:00
Insights into how the Ukraine war illustrates modern warfare dynamics.
“I mean, I think this has been apparent going all the way back to, frankly, the Middle East in the past six or seven years.”
Role of Drones in Ukraine
6:00 to 8:00
Analysis of the impact and effectiveness of drones in the Ukraine conflict.
“So things like tube artillery became increasingly risky bets to make.”
Technological Influence on Iran Conflict
8:00 to 10:00
Discussing how technology affects the stalemate in the Iran conflict.
“Or is that still sort of further out into the hypothetical?”
Assessing U.S. Military Readiness
10:00 to 12:00
Evaluating America's preparedness for significant military engagements.
“this could all change in a week because of just the nature of how quickly these things change.”
Munitions and Warfare Strategy
12:00 to 14:00
Examining the implications of munitions stockpile and long-term military planning.
“Maybe there are things that we needed to be doing, learning the lessons of Ukraine ourselves and sort of changing the way that we build our military to be ready for these kinds of disruptions.”
Evaluating U.S. Military Strategy
14:00 to 17:58
Discusses the historical goals and current challenges of U.S. military strategy in terms of capability and production.
“And again, this has been known for a long time.”
Military Technology and Warfare
17:58 to 19:16
Explores the evolution of military technology, focusing on high-end systems and their production challenges.
“Download the New York Times app to start watching.”
The Future of Autonomous Military Systems
19:16 to 24:13
Examines the role of autonomous systems in military operations and how they complement human capabilities.
“I think others might insist that the proper Elvin pronunciation is Ondoreal.”
Show all 23 chapters
Integrated Defense Solutions
24:13 to 28:00
Details advancements in air and missile defense technologies and their operational implications in modern warfare.
“And the whole notion is that it is an unmanned or uncrewed or autonomous system so that you can take risk with it that you would never take risk with a$100 million airplane that has a human soul aboard.”
Understanding Modern Military Interceptors
28:00 to 29:53
Learn about the evolving technology behind military interceptors and layered defense systems.
“Okay, but how would you or I refer to it?”
Shifts in Air Defense Strategies
29:53 to 31:58
Explore the transition from point-specific to area defense strategies in air combat.
“And it just requires a much larger volume of sensors, a far larger volume of weapons.”
Challenges in Military Technology Implementation
31:58 to 34:48
Discuss the complexities and challenges in making military technologies effective.
“Or is that just sort of in a completely different realm of threat?”
Trust and Reliability in Autonomous Systems
34:48 to 36:39
Understand the crucial role of trust and reliability in deploying autonomous military systems.
“And to the extent that it did, it didn't work a week later or a month later or a couple of months after that.”
The Future of Defense Industrial Capacity
36:39 to 39:21
Examine the U.S. industrial capacity for producing autonomous weaponry amidst political uncertainty.
“You said earlier, basically, that under current conditions, we can spend a lot of money and the existing legacy weapon systems we have, we just don't get that large a number of missiles and so on, right?”
Envisioning Success in a Potential Conflict with China
39:21 to 42:05
Speculate on how Anduril's technology could deter conflict with China over Taiwan.
“So the same way that you would put a roof on your house or go buy a piece of electronics technology.”
Military Strategy and the China Threat
42:06 to 46:08
Discussing the military strategies needed to deter Chinese aggression.
“Let's say the actual success that we measure ourselves by as a company is whether we prevent that war from ever happening.”
Ethics of Autonomous Warfare
46:52 to 56:00
Exploring the ethical implications of using autonomous systems in military operations.
“You talked earlier about emphasizing the idea of keeping humans in the loop, keeping humans involved.”
The Ethical Responsibility of Technology Builders
56:00 to 57:01
Learn about the obligations and responsibilities of technology creators when working with the government.
“in thinking about how the weapons are actually used?”
The Role of Technology Companies in Defense
57:01 to 58:11
Explore how technology companies should interact with government decisions regarding defense and military use.
“As a builder of weapons in the United States, you know, I can't show up to the Pentagon and say, you can buy my weapons, but you can't give them to Israel.”
Concerns about Future Technology Applications
58:11 to 1:00:08
Discuss the potential risks and moral implications of advanced technologies in warfare.
“Stipulating that that's true and that that's just inevitably going to be the necessary approach that you take.”
Preparing for Future Conflicts and Decisions
1:00:08 to 1:01:21
Understand the importance of providing advanced technology while acknowledging unpredictable future scenarios in conflict.
“to answer your question in the abstract because a few years prior to World War II, if anyone could even contemplate an atomic bomb, it would be hard to imagine that someone would support that as an ethical use.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This podcast is supported by WTTW. As Chicago's source for local independent reporting, WTTW News brings you essential coverage. Subscribe to the Daily Chicagoan e-newsletter for the news of the day directly to your inbox Monday through Saturday. And on Fridays, explore the natural wonders around us in Urban Nature, WTTW's newest e-newsletter. And watch WTTW's trusted nightly news program, Chicago Tonight at 5.30 and 10 p.m. and stream at WTTW.com slash news. WTTW News. Cutting through the noise so you can see Chicago clearly.
0:34Ross Douthat:What's your understanding of the constraints on what the Pentagon allows a drone or an autonomous weapon to do without a human deciding, kill this person, shoot this person? The more important thing is what it doesn't say, right? It doesn't say you're not allowed to automate the kill chain. So you're allowed to do that? You are not not allowed to do that. Right.
0:59Ross Douthat:Chris Brose, welcome to Interesting Times. Thank you. Great to be here. So it seems to me like the future of high-tech warfare has arrived, that we are living through a revolution in warfighting, unlike any, at least in my own lifetime, in which drones and robots and autonomous weapons are remaking battlefields. And your professional work puts you at the center of this shift. You are the president and chief strategy officer of Anduril, which is a defense technology company that's trying to be the hub, or a hub at least, for autonomous warfare. But you're also someone with a deeper background in national security and American government.
1:38Ross Douthat:You worked as a policy advisor to Condoleezza Rice, to John McCain, and you're the author of a book about the high-tech military future. So I want to start by asking you to just describe where we are now generally to someone, let's say, who fell asleep at the end of the Iraq war and just woke up? Probably to talk about the future, we also have to talk about that sort of past and present, right? So if you kind of look at, I'd say, the assumptions that we have been operating under for, you know, call it the past 30, 40 years, I think that's what's sort of driven the kind of military that we have.
2:14So we have assumed that if America is ever going to have to fight a war, we are going to enter the battlefield with technological superiority against any rival, that we have military primacy in the world and sort of dominance over any potential competitor. And that if our military is called to fight, the war is not going to last very long. We're not going to shoot a lot of weapons. We're not going to lose a lot of ships and planes and other types of big military platforms. So we have built and sort of sized and shaped our military around exactly the kinds of systems that you would expect flow from that assumption, right?
2:47Very expensive, very exquisite, very hard to produce military systems and weapons. And I think when you look at the future, I would argue that the assumptions that are now kind of very evident to us in the present, and certainly I think will be evident in the future, are almost the opposite of what we've built our military around. So I don't think that we have the kind of military dominance that many of us in the 1990s and early 2000s just took for granted. I do think we have peer competitors and rivals in the world who are, you know, kind of adapting to and really disrupting the American way of war.
3:21I think that we are going to find a much more contested battlefield where we're going to lose a lot of planes, ships, satellites, other things. We're going to shoot a lot of weapons and we're going to have to replace that as an act of production, you know, over a long period of time. I think that is not a future that we're really ready for. So I think all of this points in the direction of autonomous systems, lower cost systems, things that are much more like kind of consumer technology or commercial capabilities than they are legacy military capabilities.
3:52Ross Douthat:And this isn't just the future you're describing. This is the present of one major ongoing war right now, right? The Russia-Ukraine war. Yeah, present in recent past. I mean, I think this has been apparent going all the way back to, frankly, the Middle East in the past six or seven years. I think all of the technology that everybody is talking about in terms of one-way attack drones and other things were evident on the battlefields in Iraq and Yemen and Syria going back to 2017, 18, 19. And then obviously the war in Ukraine puts this all in high relief. But it's a way of saying that we tend to have this belief in the United States that the future of war is something that's going to happen to us in 10 years and we have a long time to get ready for.
4:34I think it's been unfolding for years and I think it is very much right now a present problem.
4:38Ross Douthat:So let's just use Ukraine as a template or a case study because it's the biggest conflict and it's the one I think that Americans have followed the most closely. The Ukraine war starts out with Russia trying to do basically a sprint to the capital, to Kiev, like a sort of, you know, a war, basically their equivalent maybe of the US sprint to Baghdad. Yeah. Shock and awe. Shock and awe, right? And And that sort of doesn't work. And very quickly, the war becomes a grinding stalemate. But how quickly do drones and autonomous weapons change the nature of that conflict? Like, how would you describe the role that they play for Ukraine itself, especially?
5:26Yeah, I think that it is not something that happens immediately. I mean, in the early days, Russia gets bogged down, largely for reasons, I think, having to do with kind of the character of their regime. There was an assumption that this was going to be a cakewalk, so they didn't plan for having to operate for weeks and months and years. It was only, I think, once the battlefield lines hardened and you began to see both sides struggling to advance and gain ground. But it basically becomes a hider-finder problem, and it became very difficult to hide on that battlefield. So things like tube artillery became increasingly risky bets to make.
6:05And that's where I think you started to see attack drones really kind of taking the lion's share of the burden in terms of the killing that they were doing and sort of being critical to military operations, which they are today.
6:17Ross Douthat:For someone who hasn't watched a video of an attack drone in action, which you can, in fact, watch on the Internet, what does a one-way attack drone do? Describe a typical mission for one on the Ukrainian-Russian front. Yeah, so I think there's going to be different kinds for sure, right? I think these are small kind of hand-carry drones that you can fly either autonomously or kind of human piloted. They have quite capable sensors on them in terms of being able to fly out, fly over an area, identify people or military systems that you want to strike. And then most of those systems have been weaponized.
6:55So they're carrying small amounts of explosives that you can then literally just fly them into the target. So you see these horrible videos on YouTube of, you know, Russian or Ukrainian soldiers like running away from these drones that are chasing them down and sort of horror movie style. And then I think you see the sort of larger, kind of more complex operations that both sides have also innovated in conducting, where you have larger drones that are going to look more like missiles, where they're going to have other drones that are flying out in advance of them and doing this kind of targeting, spotting of targets, feeding that information back.
7:31And then these kind of larger drones are operating more like precision strike weapons. So the ability to have these systems that are out there on their own, sort of looking for targets, identifying systems or personnel, and then being able to fly out and strike those targets with precision and do it all at a price that's affordable. I mean, that is how Ukraine has stayed in the fight for over four years. They would not have been able to do this otherwise.
7:56Ross Douthat:Is there a near future where infantry itself starts to be obsolete and you literally just have drones and robots maneuvering against each other? Or is that still sort of further out into the hypothetical? I think that's further out if it's ever something that becomes feasible, simply because so long as human beings continue to live on and inhabit the earth, which I'm pretty sure we're going to do for the indefinite future, I think it becomes very difficult for these types of robotic systems to entirely go in, take, and then hold ground, right? Because what we've seen plenty in the war in Ukraine is that militaries can be at various different times in the battle adept at taking ground.
8:40It's the holding of it that becomes very difficult. The question then becomes, can those gains be solidified? Can those gains be held entirely through kind of non-human means? That's not a bet that I would make at the moment.
8:52Ross Douthat:Let's talk about Iran, because this is a war that the United States is directly involved in. Yes. We're not just funding and observing as we are in Ukraine. How much of the specifics of the Iranian stalemate are connected to technological change? I would argue that Iran is still in the fight, in large part because of the sort of technological systems that we're talking about. If you kind of believe public reporting, we've done an enormous amount of military damage, right? I mean, the claims of sinking their Navy and sort of destroying their Air Force and destroying their air defense systems, going after their kind of military industrial capacity.
9:35I mean, a lot of that's happened. But at the same time, the war is continuing because they're still capable of building, fielding, and using one-way attack drones, these kinds of robotic kind of drone boats that are quite effective in sort of threatening the Strait of Hormuz and sort of keeping that area of the world closed. These systems are largely the reason, I think, that they're still able to project power. They're still able to hazard the United States, our allies and partners in the region. this could all change in a week because of just the nature of how quickly these things change. How could it just...
10:10Ross Douthat:I know you're not inside government, but do you think that the Pentagon was prepared for the kind of responses that Iran has offered to us? Do you think that this has gone as the military expected and it's just maybe the political side that didn't anticipate it? Or what's your take? I have a hard time imagining that if the premise of this was we were going to very quickly kind of decapitate the leadership strike and they were going to sue for peace might happen. But I think the whole nature of a military is to plan for the worst case scenario. So I have to imagine that that kind of planning was done.
10:47I mean, the reality is we still are in the fight. We are still striking targets. We are still conducting the military operations that the military has been focused on. But I think when you look very closely at the statements of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff about munitions inventory. We'll say - Well, sir, we have sufficient munitions for what we're tasked to do right now. That's what I hear from the COCOMs. What I will say is I will always want more. So I appreciate the effort of this committee and the Congress. We're always going to want more munitions. The premise or sort of assumption being that if somehow that changes, or if the military objectives change or if the conflict lengthens, that might be a different situation.
11:35So I think that there were certain things that Iran has been doing that I think were pretty easy to forecast. Closing the Strait of Hormuz was something that the US military has been worried about for a very long time. The ability to project power through one-way attack drones, etc. I mean, this is something that they've been doing, again, for a very long time. I think you can take issue with how we've responded to that, which suggests maybe we weren't as ready as we needed to be. Maybe there are things that we needed to be doing, learning the lessons of Ukraine ourselves and sort of changing the way that we build our military to be ready for these kinds of disruptions.
12:14But it is clearly not kind of creating the political outcome or the military outcome that, at least again through kind of public statements from the leadership of our country, was the intent going into this.
12:27Ross Douthat:Let's talk about American military readiness then in general. There's a lot of talk about how the U.S. is burning through its stockpile of missiles and munitions. War with Iran is not a major great power war. No. Right? It's not war with Russia. It's not war with the People's Republic of China. Looking at what's played out in the Persian Gulf over the last month and just sort of looking at trends generally, is the U.S. prepared for a major war? If you look at it narrowly in the question of munition stockpiles, which is a pretty important indicator of military preparedness, I would say no. And I think this has been known to us for a very long time.
13:08And I think the deeper question is why is that and how do we fix it? You know, so I think in the opening days and weeks of, you know, Operation Epic Fury in Iran, you know, what I've read publicly is, you know, we fired something like eight years worth of Tomahawk missile production. Now, that's an exquisite weapon. It does remarkable things. The problem is that it takes a very long time to build. And once you shoot it, it takes a time to replace. And we don't have, you know, an infinite supply of them. So I think if you kind of look at the question of why are we not ready for this, it goes back to the comment I made at the beginning, which is the assumptions that we've made about warfare.
13:46Our assumptions are that we would not have to fight protracted conflicts. You know, we have assumed that we would get into a war, we would enter the battlefield with dominance, with all of this exquisite military capability, and the war would be over very quickly. So the fact that we don't have deep inventories of munitions, for example, is not something that we'd have to worry about. And again, this has been known for a long time.
14:06Ross Douthat:I guess my sense had been, and you can tell me why I guess this is wrong, had been that the goal of the U.S. military was supposed to be to fight at least one protracted war, right? And there would be controversy back and forth about, well, are we capable of fighting more than one? Like, are we capable of fighting Russia and China simultaneously? The goal was one major theater, major regional or theater war. There was nothing said about the duration of that war. So when you look at sort of national defense strategies going all the way back, you know, decades or so, like how big do we have to build the military?
14:45What's the shape of the military we have to build? It was all built around this idea that we had to be able to fight, you know, kind of two major regional conflicts at once. And then that got downgraded to one. But the assumption was that those conflicts were going to be over very quickly. But, you know, back to your question on munitions. So over the past 10 years, as a country, we've actually tripled the amount of spending that we're putting into Patriot Missile and Tomahawk and these kinds of weapons that now have household names. The challenge is that even as that spending has gone up 200, 300 percent, production has not moved in a commensurate fashion.
15:19It's gone 14 percent, 23 percent up. And you kind of can go critical munition by critical munition and see that we're putting significant amount of resources in and we're not getting significant or commensurate amounts of production out. So to me, the problem is they are remarkable pieces of technology. We need them. We need them to do what they are uniquely built to do. But they are effectively, you know, artisanal products. You know, they are luxury goods. So I think over the past 30 or 40 years, we have had a predominantly high-end military, a very exquisite military. And it's systems that we all are very familiar with.
15:58You know, it's all of these weapons that we talk about. It's F-35s, it's aircraft carriers, submarines, and we need that. I'm not here suggesting that we can just do away with all of that. And I don't think that the war in Ukraine has rendered that stuff obsolete.
16:10Ross Douthat:Can we just pause because you've used the word exquisite now a number of times, and you don't mean, I think, exquisitely beautiful like a Ming vase. What is an exquisite weapon? Yeah. The way I use exquisite, and others may define it differently, it means it is something that is very scarce. It is very hard to produce. It is something that you're never going to have a lot of. It is going to be very technologically sophisticated or difficult to make. The problem is we can't do only that. And I think you're now starting to see in the Pentagon, you know, the leadership recognizing that you need, you know, what's referred to as a high-low mix.
16:49You need all the high-end stuff, but you also need this kind of lower end of capabilities that are going to be more producible, more affordable, oftentimes more autonomous. I think the lesson of history and really the lesson of these recent and ongoing conflicts is these technologies are going to change warfare constantly. And you're now dealing with adversaries that are quite capable, quite sophisticated, quite high tech in their own right, very disruptive, and that what we are going to field is inherently going to give us a fleeting advantage. That, I think, is the real lesson that we're going to have to take out of this, not over-indexing on a particular piece of technology or a particular way of fighting an old system or a new system.
17:30It's how do we consistently stay at the cutting edge, learn, and field. And that is, I think, what has made the Ukrainians so effective. And I think that is where the United States military, frankly, still has a lot to learn. And the U.S. bureaucracy that supports that military definitely has a lot to learn.
17:57Ross Douthat:The New York Times.
18:21Ross Douthat:Download the New York Times app to start watching.
18:51the Flame of the West is, I think, the Elvin translation. There are -
18:55Ross Douthat:Narsil reforged. It's a broken blade that's been reforged. Correct. And there is an active debate about the proper pronunciation of Anderil or Ondoreal. How do you say it? Look, I'm a pretty conventional guy. You're not a native Elvish speaker. Suburban Philadelphia. Not a native Elvish speaker. It's Anderil to me. I think others might insist that the proper Elvin pronunciation is Ondoreal. you know, these are the fights we have. I'm glad we haven't clarified that question. So having a military industrial company named for something in Lord of the Rings is something that you obviously have in common with Palantir, another cutting edge military technology company, you know, one of whose representatives has been a guest on this very show.
19:46Ross Douthat:You're both contractors doing work for the Pentagon. on. Sometimes you work on the same project. How are you different? Yeah, it's a great question. And I think it's very easy to think that we're the same, right? I mean, you know, putting aside just the name, you know, we have common DNA in the company, common investors. We're both fundamentally kind of software centric companies. We're just not working with a lot of the, you know, the customers that Palantir is working with. Like we don't work with, you know, the IRS or Health and Human Services because what we do is just not relevant to them.
20:17I think the obvious difference is that Andrel is also building hardware. So we're building sensors, drones, autonomous systems, weapons. You know, we're actually doing that manufacturing. And the software that we're building is a software system that we call Lattice. And what Lattice is doing is actually very kind of tightly integrated and coupled with that hardware in the sense that it is fundamentally focused on the autonomous operation of machines and robotic systems. So how an individual drone, for example, is perceiving its environment, maneuvering through space, identifying objects of interest, moving information, collaborating with other robots, with all of that software having to run inside of that robot.
21:02lot. So if you get concrete about it, right, I mean, we do a lot of work in counter drone and air defense. And what Lattice has to do as a software system, what we have to do as a company is actually be able to take the information that's coming out of those sensors, you know, radar feeds and imagery from cameras and signals intelligence from electronic warfare systems. And we actually, the software has to be able to build an understanding of the world. It has to build objects of interest, transform data into objects and targets to differentiate a bird from a drone or an airplane from a missile or a civilian airplane from a military airplane.
Read the full transcript
21:42And then having done that, it needs to be able to communicate with those machines and tell them to keep custody of that target, to keep looking at it, right? To be able to track it through space and time so that the system, the software system, can then task a weapon to go shoot it or defeat if that's the intent of the human operator. So it's just to say that this kind of system is like what the military would refer to as a fire control system, because you are literally controlling acts of violence through software. And this is why, you know, you look at the open AIs and the Googles and others.
22:12I mean, we have natural relationships and partnerships with all these companies. They're incredibly eager to work with us because we have a treasure trove of unique military data that you're not going to go, you know, find in a public setting. You're not going to scrape it off the internet. But you're also building the weapons themselves.
22:29Ross Douthat:Correct. Right. So you're building the model through which soldiers and operators interface with drones and counter drone technology. Yes. But you're also building drones and counter drone technology. We're also building the hardware, right. So describe the hardware, just give me a couple examples, offensive and defensive of the hardware and what like a typical product looks like. Yeah. You know, one of the bigger systems that we're building right now is an Air Force program that we competed on and won called the Collaborative Combat Aircraft, which is a fancy way of saying basically a robotic fighter jet.
23:01So, you know, fully autonomous, launching entirely without human control, you know, maneuvering through the battle space, conducting operations under the supervision of human beings, firing weapons, and again, doing all of this over very long ranges, carrying large amounts of payloads, sensors, weapons, other things. So that is the kind of system that we're building that is both a very unique and sort of differentiated piece of hardware, but what makes it special is everything that is smart and intelligent that's going on inside of it, which is foundational, and that's what the Lattice software system is doing.
23:36Ross Douthat:Is that cheaper than the alternative? Is that an example of the kind of lower cost warfare that you were just talking about? Because that sounds very high end to me. It is high end, but I think this is where - Even exquisite. I wouldn't necessarily, I mean, look, there are many things that we're doing that I would say are exquisite, but that also doesn't mean that they're exorbitant in terms of their price or in terms of the time it takes to produce them or change them or modify them. This is an incredibly capable system, but it is a fraction of the cost of an F-35, for example. And the whole notion is that it is an unmanned or uncrewed or autonomous system so that you can take risk with it that you would never take risk with a$100 million airplane that has a human soul aboard.
24:24So the whole notion is that, again, this isn't a robot that is going to necessarily replace human beings in exquisite military systems. It's going to make those systems more capable and more survivable because you can collaborate with them. You can now just not just send a single pilot in a single fighter jet out to conduct an operation. You can have that pilot flying with three or four or four or five of these robotic wingmen who are now capable of operating as almost kind of, again, wingmen.
24:54Ross Douthat:Why do you need the pilot at all, though? I mean, it seems like we can get into the question of whether you need any humans in the system in a minute. But can't you just, if this works, aren't you replacing at the very least Tom Cruise? I mean, maybe someday. I don't think that's where we are now. And I would argue it's probably not going to be the case that we're going to replace humans entirely down the future. But I think, why do you need humans now? Because the systems are not advanced enough that they can just operate completely without human supervision. You need a human being that is going to be in command of those robotic systems in the way that a human in a fighter jet is going to be collaborating with those robotic aircraft.
25:36Ross Douthat:But is there an advantage specifically to having the human be in the fighter jet with his wingmen? I would argue there is. Or could you have them in the command center piloting from afar? I think that there's an advantage that comes from the human being in that same operational environment, being closer. In a world where we're seeing jamming and denial of communications, the ability to have an aircraft that is physically in communications with those airplanes, even as they are operating in highly autonomous ways, I do think is a necessity in terms of how we are going to think about just the ethics of this or the ethical use of this technology.
26:18I think that's important. I also think the military advantage is you look at this more, I look at this more as the augmentation of human beings with intelligent systems or robotic systems. But ultimately, it's not a question of is the human better or is the machine better? It is, is the human-machine team actually more effective than either the robot or the human by itself? And I think a lot of the analysis that we've run, a lot of the analysis that we've seen from the government is that is absolutely the case.
26:47Ross Douthat:What about on defense? In terms of both drone and missile defense? Give me an example of work you're doing. So we build, so air defense is just an inherently integrated problem, which is why it's referred to as integrated air and missile defense. You are basically needing to do what I was describing a minute ago, which is you have to complete actual kill chains. So the ability to understand what's happening in the environment, be able to identify and target the systems that you want to defeat, and then be able to task weapons or military effects, kinetic or non-kinetic, to defeat those threats, and do all of that in a matter of seconds, like to operate it at a speed that a human being is not going to be able to keep up with.
27:33One of the systems that has done remarkably well in protecting American bases and American aircraft in Operation Epic Fury is the electronic warfare system that we build called Pulsar. We also have -
27:47Ross Douthat:And what is that? So take that example. That is, you're trying to defend, let's say, a U.S. base in the Middle East, right? So that is trying to shoot down both missiles and drone attacks? So this is doing this in what the military would refer to as non-kinetically. Okay, but how would you or I refer to it? It is preventing a weapon from being able to strike its target by using energy, using the electromagnetic spectrum to disrupt its operations. At the most basic level, that is what it is. And to get more technical, it begins to sound like witchcraft because it mostly is. So you're not firing interceptors.
28:25Ross Douthat:No, I was going to say, we're also doing that. Right. So basically, this is a military interceptor that is going to launch from a base that is going to fly out in much the same way that an air defense weapon will. It is going to be able to identify a target. It's going to be able to physically run into it and explode and knock it out of the air. Say a little more about the witchcraft, though. So let's say I'm running a U.S. military base in the Middle East, right? And I have a set of drones, Iranian drones heading towards me. So on the one hand, I have as weapons, as countermeasures, right, my set of maybe ideally reusable rockets that will intercept and take them down.
29:11Ross Douthat:And so some subset of the incoming fire is taken out by that. And then some subset is disrupted through electromagnetic fields. Yeah, it's basically, you know, it's what the military would refer to as a layered defense, right? I think that traditionally we've thought of air and missile defense as very point specific. I'm trying to defend a very small piece of real estate, you know, military base, and the volume of threats that I have to defend it against is not very large. And I think what we've seen is that with the proliferation of these one-way attack drones in Ukraine, in Iran, air defense is shifting into more area defense.
29:52You have to be able to protect very large areas of territory, whole cities, whole regions. And it just requires a much larger volume of sensors, a far larger volume of weapons. And it basically requires you to integrate everything. So the first thing that you're going to do is not, once you see an air defense threat, once you see an inbound missile or a one-way attack drone, the first thing, hopefully, is not shoot a Patriot missile at it. You're going to deploy something like what I'm talking about in the Pulsar system, which is an electronic warfare system. It's reusable. You know, it is essentially trying to defeat inbound threats with jamming, with energy.
30:29Ross Douthat:So it's not, is it shooting something up? No, it is a directed energy weapon. It's creating fields around? It's a force field, Ross. It is effectively a force field. That's what I want you to say. There you go. So, you know, for the listeners, it is a force field. We have done it. You know, the next up will be cloaking devices. But no, this is... But it functions like there is a zone of electromagnetic interference and missiles or drones enter this. It's more targeted at that, right? It's not trying to basically just pump huge volumes of energy out into the environment and do kind of broad spectrum jamming.
31:06Ross Douthat:And then so then the second layer would be things that come in. If that didn't work for some reason, then you start shooting. But this is what's being used now? This is being used now. Okay. You know, across the world. Is it used in, like, for instance, Israel's Iron Dome? Does Israel's Iron Dome use the directed energy? We are not currently a part of their program, but I have to imagine that Israel has similar capabilities that they're fielding as part of Iron Dome. And long run, be speculative, just this is obviously designed for base defense. In Israel's case, you have missile defense geared around cities and regions.
31:45Ross Douthat:Do you imagine this long term as sort of a version of or an upgrade of missile defense for the American homeland? Like, is there a world where this ends up being sort of a means of derailing a nuclear attack? Or is that just sort of in a completely different realm of threat? The nuclear realm is just a wholly different animal. But in terms of being able to protect military bases or critical infrastructure from drone attacks here in the United States, we're doing a lot of that work as a company. The electronic warfare system that I mentioned is part of that work, but it's a much larger problem that, again, gets back into how do we do this kind of air defense mission at scale.
32:27Ross Douthat:How hard is it to get this to actually work? And here I'm just going to throw at you, and you can respond to any of them, some examples of publicly reported Anduril failures, right? So there's reporting that Ukraine used some of your drones and then stopped using them after a certain period of time because there were battlefield failures. There are specific case studies like one of your counter drone system tests in Oregon reportedly sparked a 22 acre wildfire. There was a engine related failure to one of your autonomous fighter prototypes, Fury. Those would be examples, right? How well does this stuff work and how hard is it to get it to actually work?
33:07Yeah, I mean, without relitigating the individual incidents, because the engine fire just didn't happen. And that was something that we corrected the misimpression that a reporter had because it had been fed wrong information. How about the bigger point is like, we fail every single day, right? I mean, that's like the tip of the iceberg in terms of the failures that we experience as a company. But that's, I think, the whole point here. The answer to your question of how hard it is to make this stuff work is incredibly hard. It is far harder than people realize. And for that reason, we have invested as a company.
33:44This is our own money. This is not money that the taxpayer is funding us to do. At this point, I think we have about 330 ,000 acres of test sites and ranges across the United States.
33:57Ross Douthat:Where are those? Undisclosed locations. Okay. Mostly in the West? In places where you can afford to have large amounts of space. Not in Connecticut, just from my own. No. Okay. But if you want to open a test site in Connecticut, Ross, we should talk. Okay. It can be your side hustle. It's to say that, you know, we go out every single day and break these systems. We figure out what their capabilities and limitations are. We develop them to the point where they are going to be, you know, trusted by an operator that's going to use them. But even then, the expectation cannot be that when a system shows up in Ukraine, it's going to work immediately.
34:33And I think that is an experience that any company that has been operating in Ukraine since, you know, the beginning of the war, which we have and the military systems that we've been fielding are still in operations in Ukraine. No one has had an experience where they fielded something that has just been perfect and worked out of the box. And to the extent that it did, it didn't work a week later or a month later or a couple of months after that. And I think, again, the whole lesson of this is not, you know, can we build a perfect piece of technology? It is, do we actually have the right institutional culture or organizational culture where we are learning, we are testing, we are training these systems, we are building trust in them, we are enabling operators to build trust in them.
35:12And then when When those systems don't work because they won't, because of things that new technology makes possible or responses that our adversaries engage in, we have to be able to modernize those systems and improve them and change them and rebuild them. And that's what we do every single day. We're integrating new sensors and new payloads onto these systems. We're rebuilding entire systems altogether at a hardware level, entirely new versions of aircraft and other things.
35:39Ross Douthat:And actual war is an accelerant, right? I mean, both the Ukraine war and the Iran war are accelerants of this technology's development. Yes. At least it should be. At a technical level, it's an accelerant because you are in a non-fail environment where you have to perform and you have to get better and it's all mission critical. And that kind of incentive is exactly the kind of pressure that we want to be under. Because at the end of the day, we are building autonomous systems. systems and, you know, autonomous systems are by nature, very finicky, right? I mean, you know, we, you take them into one environment and they perceive the world differently.
36:15You take them into a different environment and you have to do a certain amount of retraining. All of this ultimately comes down to the trust that human beings are going to place in them. So if those systems are not predictable and reliable, if they don't do things in a repeated and sort of high trust way, operators are just not going to use them, right? There's no points for being autonomous. There's points for being effective and for being useful. Autonomy is a means to that end in our mind.
36:38Ross Douthat:What about the capacity to build the kind of things you're building at scale? You're one company, right? You said earlier, basically, that under current conditions, we can spend a lot of money and the existing legacy weapon systems we have, we just don't get that large a number of missiles and so on, right? Does the U.S. have the existing industrial capacity to build out autonomous weapons, drones and other things on the scale that we need in an environment where you've just said that we aren't maybe well positioned to win a major war? Yeah, I think the answer is yes and no. I think the yes answer is we absolutely have the ability to stand up industrial infrastructure, you know, bring the workforce in.
37:26I mean, These are not problems that we're concerned about. We just closed another fundraising round, so we're taking in$5 billion of private capital.
37:34Ross Douthat:And this is something, by the way, you mentioned earlier the venture capital role here. This is a different model from the traditional defense contractor. Yes. Right, where you are effectively raising money, building weapons, and presenting them to the Pentagon before a contract is signed? In part that. There are plenty of instances where we have conviction in a solution that needs to be built to solve a military or national security problem, and we go out and do exactly that. We put our own money at risk, we spin up a team, we build a system, and we take that system to the government and say, you probably wouldn't have come up with this on your own, but we think that it is an answer to your problem.
38:12As we've become a larger company, we've also had to kind of change the business model and engage in different bets, which I would argue makes it start to look much more like the commercial economy that we're all familiar with, which is if you give me a contract to build weapons, the traditional way of doing it is the government is going to pay the provider of that traditional weapon all of the costs to build their facilities, to hire their people, to cover the overruns when the program goes over budget and off schedule. the taxpayers on the hook for all of that. And the industry partner really isn't bearing a lot of that risk.
38:49I think what is changing now, and I think Andrel has done a lot to change it, but I also give a lot of credit to the current leadership of the Pentagon that's trying to change this business model as well. Let's try to make this more like a commercial transaction where I sell weapons and you want weapons. You give me a contract to build a lot of weapons, I'm going to go off and build those weapons. If I am off schedule or if I underperform or if I'm behind, that's all on me. And I'm the one that has to eat the cost of that failure in order to meet the obligations of my contract. So the same way that you would put a roof on your house or go buy a piece of electronics technology.
39:29Ross Douthat:Except that unless you start selling to other countries, it's a market with only one buyer. Right. It is. Which means that you are, as a company, in a position where you are sort of at the mercy of political changes, political decisions. I want to ask about this because Palantir, again, has a higher profile than you do and has a specific political profile. There's lots of people who hate and fear Palantir who associate it with sort of general fears about the surveillance state, but also specific fears or concerns about its alignment with Republican politics, the Trump administration and so on.
40:06Ross Douthat:I think this is less of an issue for Anderil, but your, see, I did the Tolkien pronunciation there, but your prominent founder, Palmer Luckey, is a prominent Republican. Obviously, there is overlap with Palantir. You yourself have mentioned it. You have one of the funds investing in you is connected to Donald Trump Jr. Is there a world where your business model just goes away in a democratic administration? Because it's like Anderil, those were the Trump guys. Or the Pete Hegseth guys, right? Like how vulnerable are you to politics? No, I personally don't think that we are that vulnerable. I think that from day one, we've recognized that Anderil is a defense company.
40:52And defense is a long game. And you have to be able to play that long game, not knowing what the future politics of the country are going to hold. This is, for us, politics is something that, you know, individuals can engage in. And, you know, Palmer certainly has his political profile. Our CEO is a very public and avowed Democrat. You know, I have no idea what I am anymore. But it's to say that it doesn't matter, right? Because at the end of the day, what we're focused on as a company, we are actually engaged in a bipartisan way across both houses of Congress, both parties, to provide an enduring capacity in this country to build the kinds of defense technologies and capabilities that I think on both sides of the aisle people want.
41:38Ross Douthat:So let's say that vision is right, and you become an enduring part of the defense industrial base, and the next president is a Democrat, doesn't matter, you're doing the work you want to do, and we get into the early 2030s, and we get a war with China over Taiwan. Just give me a brief vision of what Anderil's success looks like in that environment. Like, what actually happens? Yeah. It is first and foremost, right? Let's say the actual success that we measure ourselves by as a company is whether we prevent that war from ever happening. Sure. I know you get it. Table stakes, right? But it needs to be said, right?
42:23Because look, we are a defense company. We do build military technology. But we're not excited for it to be -
42:28Ross Douthat:Then put it this way. Describe the scenario that China would fear that would induce them not to go to war. Yeah. So some specific things, because I think the specifics are what is interesting. Ultimately, we want to contribute to America's ability to defeat their strategy. And what their strategy is, I think, not reading their kind of internal emails or what have you, is they want to prevent us from being able to project power. They want to prevent us from being able to come to the aid of our allies and partners in the region, whether it's Taiwan, Japan, or someone else. And they want to be able to endure through, you know, what could be a protracted conflict by keeping us out of it.
43:09Ross Douthat:And that means concretely they want to initially destroy our bases and drive our aircraft carriers out of the region. They say it very clearly. They say it is winning without fighting. They want to prevent us from being able to fight. And that is the sort of deep disruption that has been happening to the United States military for the past 30 to 35 years. China went to school on us in terms of how we fight and with what we fight. And they have been building up and modernizing a military to hold all of that at risk. So specifically, what we want to be able to do is we want to be able to break that advantage.
43:41We want to make the bases and ships and aircraft carriers that are going to be under threat in that region defensible, having larger numbers of robotic systems that are purpose built for the Indo-Pacific region, right? So I think a lot of people look at the war in Ukraine and say, on the one hand, we just need to buy everything that the Ukrainians are building, quadcopters and others. Or on the other hand -
44:03Ross Douthat:Or have the Taiwanese buy them, right? Well, I'll get to the Taiwan question and the allied question in a second. But the criticism of people who over-index on the war in Ukraine is, oh, none of this stuff is relevant in the Indo-Pacific region. The distances are too vast. The geography is so large. The threat from the Chinese is so much greater. And there's a degree to which that's true. I think the point is that what we actually need to be doing is I think what we're doing as a company, which is not just carbon copying what the Ukrainians are doing, but learning the lessons of that battlefield and the attributes of those technologies and building different kinds of military systems that are purpose built for the United States and its allies for different geographies and for a far higher bar of threat that we would be facing from, you know, from the Chinese Communist Party.
44:48And then I think specifically to your question about Taiwan, because these are the places where you have the flashpoints of conflict where a conflict might emerge. I think that we have to do our best to support the Taiwanese government in making themselves more defensible, making themselves into the kind of adversary that is so distasteful that the Chinese military, the Chinese political leadership just doesn't want to take that on.
45:15Ross Douthat:And that means like drone swarms when you have an attempted amphibious landing. Yeah, making them more defensible from the types of inbound missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, one-way attack drones that they're going to be faced with, giving them the ability to defend against and sort of endure that sort of onslaught, the ability to project power in a way that keeps them in the fight. And that is work that Andrew is doing. I mean, we're providing that capability, obviously, with the U.S. government's blessing directly to the Taiwanese armed forces. And it's something that we intend to do a lot more, provided that they have the will and the means and the U.S.
45:56government continues to back us in doing that.
46:07Ross Douthat:Hi, this is Ashley. I live in San Francisco with my boyfriend. We would love to officially share my New York Times subscription with separate logins. We both love cooking, love being in the kitchen, but I'm a 30-minute and under efficient dinner girly. I want a sheet pan meal. He is very elaborate. He wants to get into the storytelling. I want to be able to save my easy meals and check off the ones that I've completed. And I think him having his own profile would be great. Ashley, we heard you. It's why we created the New York Times Family subscription. You get your own login and Mr. Elaborate gets his.
46:43Plus room for two others. Find out more at nytimes.com slash family.
46:51Ross Douthat:All right, let's end with the ethics of this strange new world. You talked earlier about emphasizing the idea of keeping humans in the loop, keeping humans involved. What are your actual core principles as a company when it comes to what is allowed to happen autonomously in a conflict area? My general frustration with the ethical debate right now is that it feels very kind of unsophisticated and stale. You know, I think on the one side you have folks who basically are looking at the reality of the security dilemma that we face, which is our adversaries are going to do all of this. They're going to build these autonomous systems.
47:30They're going to take human beings out of the loop and they're going to gain a military advantage. And if we don't do that, you know, we'll be we'll be on our back foot. And there's a degree to which that's real. Is it, by the way, just in the case of Ukraine right now, you have drones killing people without a human in the loop, right?
47:48Ross Douthat:Already? Again, I don't know everything that's going on there. I actually think a lot of what you've seen more recently is you don't have that. You have drones that are being piloted by very capable drone pilots that are the ones flying them into their targets, whether those targets are people, soldiers, you know, or military systems. I don't think that you are seeing a large amount of automation yet on the battlefield, but I think that too could change. You know, that if the Ukrainians start building up more of an internal capacity to shoot deep, right, to shoot longer range, one-way attack drones in volume deeper into Russia, you're probably going to have to automate more of the operations of those systems.
48:28Ross Douthat:And you're just sending, then you would be just sending them out and saying, go until you see something to kill and kill it. That is a version of it. Yeah. I think that the, and again, I think to go back to your question about the ethics, I think on the other side is folks who look at this and say, this technology is so new, it's so unprecedented that we just have to ban it outright. We just have to never go there. And I think that that's also not a sophisticated position. And I think that what, to answer your question directly, what I think we try to stay focused on as a company is the reality that over the past decades, and I would argue centuries, you know, Western civilization, the United States in particular, has built up a body of laws and, you know, policies and doctrine that enables us to bring brand new technology into military use to weaponize it and to use it.
49:22use it in a way that is still ethically constrained and thought about in a serious and ethical way. What we need to be doing a better job of as a country is not throwing out this remarkable body of sort of ethical thinking and action and doctrine that we've built up, but actually applying it to govern how these technologies are being built and introduced to military operations. Because I think that there's nothing to me that is so new and so unique and so unprecedented about these technologies that the sort of ethical frameworks that we have brought to bear to solve past problems can't enable us to solve these future problems.
49:58Ross Douthat:That's okay. That's very general, though. I want you to make this concrete. What are the current existing constraints on what the Pentagon, what's your understanding of the constraints on what the Pentagon allows a drone or an autonomous weapon to do without a human deciding, kill this person, shoot this person? So if you look at the actual policy, it's a very serious document, but it's also quite broad, and it would account for a lot of things. And I actually think that's right and well and good. I think that people also need to realize - Wait, wait, wait. But what does it say? I know it's very broad, but is there a specific - The more important thing is what it doesn't say, right?
50:39It doesn't say you're not allowed to automate the kill chain. It doesn't say that you're not allowed to build a military system that is capable of basically being a lethal autonomous weapon. So you're allowed to do that? You are not not allowed to do that. I think what the point is, is that people also have to appreciate that bureaucracies by nature and military bureaucracies in particular are inherently conservative. And I think that it's a fundamental misunderstanding. And I'm not saying that you're guilty of this, but I think that many are. It is a misunderstanding.
51:15Ross Douthat:I could be guilty of it. That's okay. It's a misunderstanding of our defense institution that they're just going to take a bunch of unproven technology and then willy-nilly kind of throw it onto the battlefield and see what happens. Because at the end of the day, what they are accountable for and the consequences of their work is life and death, not just life and death with respect to enemy combatants, civilians, but also for our own personnel. You don't want a weapon system that malfunctions. You don't want a drone or an autonomous system that hallucinates. So there is a process that all new technology has to go through.
51:50And I think that it is going to be no different in the case of these kinds of more highly intelligent, highly autonomous robotic systems where you are going to rigorously train them to do very specific things. You're going to test them to determine that they actually perform those tasks the right way, effectively, repeatedly, predictably. And in the process of that training and testing, you're going to build trust that those systems are safe to use and effective to use.
52:16Ross Douthat:And where in that process do you determine where the moral line is for letting robots kill people? So to take a specific sort of point of differentiation, how I would answer your question would be very different in a defensive application of this technology than an offensive application. If I'm going to take a highly intelligent machine and send it downrange to go hunt targets and basically make its own decisions about what to do, what to shoot, etc., there's going to be a far higher bar applied to letting that system go off and do those things than a similar system would be if it were employed in a defensive setting, like an air defense application we talked about, where the risk of not doing that is that the human beings that are under threat from those inbound missiles will be too slow and too incapable of being able to defend themselves.
53:08So you're going to be far more willing to put that kind of advanced technology into a defensive use case because you are literally protecting human life as opposed to an offensive case where you're sending that system out to take human life.
53:22Ross Douthat:Is there a world where the military for offensive warfare has a policy that human beings have to be in the loop. But in effect, this technology is so fast and you're sort of caught up in the operations of artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons that the human being ends up being just sort of a rubber stamp, right? I mean, because that seems like a possible future too, that you technically maintain humans in the kill chain, but in practice, you never want to be the mid-level soldier who says no to what the AI is telling you to do, right? Yeah. I think here too, I mean, it's also highly contextual.
54:04Like, I absolutely can imagine a world where we build lethal autonomous weapons and we use them exactly as you were describing. You know, again, back to this ethical framework. When the United States military goes to war, we will declare what are called areas of active hostilities. And what you're saying to the world is, this is a war zone. Do not go there. If you're a commercial fisherman or a commercial mariner, do not take your ship through there. Do not fly your aircraft through there, because this is going to be an area where we are lowering the bar for how we are going to use violence, or we are going to delegate more of our military operations to intelligent machines in order to gain that advantage or not lose that advantage.
54:54But you are doing so in a context that you've created that gives you much higher assurance that you're not going to be making mistakes, killing civilians, killing your own people. And again, I think this is where, like, I apologize for continuing to come back to the context and the specifics, but I think that's where all the devils lie in these kinds of ethical discussions of these new technologies.
55:16Ross Douthat:So then two last questions on that, just from your perspective as someone who is making weapons for the military, but you do not work for the military. Does the private company that does this kind of work with the military just have to accept as the basis for doing business that you are trusting the military in these specific circumstances, right? And because this is obviously something that's come up a lot with the big AI companies, which are not defense contractors, but now kind of are defense contractors and famously Anthropic maybe had problems with how the Pentagon might use its AI and this led to conflict between the Pentagon and Anthropic.
55:58Ross Douthat:What's your view of the place of the company, the private company doing this work in thinking about how the weapons are actually used? Yeah. I think working with or working for the government is kind of an all or nothing venture. And I think that's how it should be. I don't think that we ever want the builders of technology in America to basically enact a veto over how our government is using that technology. I think that is a decision that needs to remain in the hands of the American people and their elected representatives. And I think that for companies that want to work with the government, that's what you're signing up for.
56:35You are signing up for the belief that working for our government is inherently good. It is something that is necessary and right. And that you are believing that the government is going to be following the laws of the land. It's going to be constrained by the checks and balances of the constitution and our other institutions of government. But that you can't show up and try to sort of veto individual use cases, right? As a builder of weapons in the United States, you know, I can't show up to the Pentagon and say, you can buy my weapons, but you can't give them to Israel. You can't shoot them in Yemen.
57:12You can't provide them to the American military in Operation Epic Fury or share them to the Taiwanese or the Europeans. You basically have to say, look, I am here to provide a capability or a service, and I am trusting that the government is going to – they're going to make policy. They're going to follow the law. They're going to be checked and balanced and constrained by the other institutions of our government. And that's, I think, what you're signing up for. If a private actor, a company, or a person doesn't believe that they can support their government in that way, providing them that technology or service, the right thing to do is just to walk away, right, to not to do that work.
57:49And there are plenty of companies in America that choose not to engage in defense or choose not to provide capability to the government. And that is, I think, an absolutely ethically supportable decision. And I think it's a good thing that in America, we have that choice. We have that luxury. I think where Anthropic went wrong, and there's plenty of blame to go around. But I don't believe we want these kinds of technology companies to include us at Anderil showing up and trying to dictate to our elected representatives, our leaders, our Senate-confirmed officials, and ultimately the American people, what they can and can't do with the technologies that we're building.
58:30Ross Douthat:Stipulating that that's true and that that's just inevitably going to be the necessary approach that you take. I'm just curious as a last question, whether there's anything concrete that you fear with this technology. And I'll just say as context, the pattern in major wars in most of human history, especially where technology is involved, is you get in a major war, it goes on a long time and you escalate the use of new technology to a threshold of moral danger. And this could be poison gas in World War I. It could be the strategic bombing of cities and the use of nuclear weapons in World War II.
59:11Ross Douthat:There are other examples, right? But it seems very imaginable to me that you get in a major war with autonomous weapons and a system of moral constraint that works right now starts to go out the window. And I'm just curious to end, are you ever afraid of where the things you're building could be taken? I think you have to be. And it would be irresponsible if you weren't, for me or for anybody who is working in this area of technology, to fear the sort of future use cases that these systems could be put to or the ways in which they would develop. But I think to your question about those future scenarios, at the end of the day, the only thing we can focus on is building the best technology that we're capable of building to support the United States, our government, our allies and partners, recognizing that the future use cases, the context, all of these things are going to change and be different.
1:00:07And it's hard to answer your question in the abstract because a few years prior to World War II, if anyone could even contemplate an atomic bomb, it would be hard to imagine that someone would support that as an ethical use. The point being is that these things remain highly contextual. And sort of what you are willing to condone and what you're willing to do is going to change based on the circumstances you find yourselves in. And I think the only thing that you can do as a builder of technology is, again, provide the best capability that you can, keep the United States and our allies and partners on the cutting edge of technology to try to ensure that those wars never happen.
1:00:45But in the event that, God forbid, we find ourselves in them, recognize that those are going to be the decisions that the elected representatives of the American people are going to have to make under very difficult circumstances. And we pray they get them right.
1:00:59Ross Douthat:All right. Chris Brose, thanks for joining me. Thank you. Great to be here.
1:01:20Thank you.
From the publisher
The future of high-tech warfare has arrived. Just look to the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran to see how much drones and robots have remade the modern battlefield. Is the U.S. positioned to win wars in this new era? What are the ethical constraints of waging autonomous warfare? My guest this week is Christian Brose, the president and chief strategy officer of Anduril, a defense technology company building a slate of autonomous weapons and defense systems for the American military.
- 00:00 - Intro
- 03:18 - Drones on the Russia - Ukraine battlefield
- 8:17 - Iran's stalemate and American military readiness
- 17:11 - Anduril is more than a "Lord of the Rings" reference
- 25:33 - Force fields and a layered defense
- 31:12 - The challenges of "finicky" autonomous systems
- 44:44 - The ethics of automating the kill chain
(A full transcript of this episode is available on the Times website.)
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