Ep 85: The Path to Regime Change in Iran with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi

0:00As a result of what I think is the legacy of my father and particularly my grandfather of putting it on back from the dark ages and putting it on the track for modernity and progress and education and everything that led to be a result of the future. So, people were appreciative of the fact that now we are addressing many social issues, women's rights, things of that nature, which was part of that vision. And of course, in contrast, what the regime did was all of a sudden put us back in the Middle Ages. And when you hear people today just comparing, they say, you know, we should have been today the South Korea of the Middle East, instead we become the North Korea, which means it's not the people, it's the system.

0:45It's a very volatile week in the Middle East. It's an unprecedented time. This is the first time that Iran has directly attacked Israel with hundreds of armaments, including over 100 ballistic missiles. We're all on the edge of our seats waiting to see how Israel responds. 45 years ago, the Iranian regime was overthrown by a radical theocracy, and this new regime started sponsoring terrorism all around the region. It's one of the biggest sponsors of terrorism in the world. It's also repressed its own people. It's done some horrible things internally. took a very prosperous pro-Western country and made it into something very backwards and very scary for a lot of people who disagree with the regime.

1:19We're very lucky to have spoken in the last week with the crown prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi. He was in fighter pilot school actually in Lubbock, Texas when his father was overthrown. And since that time, 45 years ago, he's really emerged as a key leader, a prince in the true sense of the word. He's no longer in charge of his country, but he's still playing the role of a prince. He's looked up to by a lot of my Persian friends. There's Iranian immigrant cab drivers all over the world who have their background out of their phones, is Reza Pahlavi. And the crown prince is a symbol and he's someone who's eager to help transition his country to a free republic.

1:53He's likely to play an important role if that happens. He says the regime is a lot less stable, a lot weaker than people realize, and has really interesting insight on the dynamics there and what's going on and what could happen. At this critical moment in history, it's an important conversation to hear from the crown Prince, what could come next with Iran and the region. Thank you very much for joining us. I thank you for having me on your program. I was looking forward to this discussion. Well, it's an honor to have you here at my home. Good to be here. It's wonderful to have you in Texas as well.

2:18I hear you're a big Dallas Cowboys fan and have a certain affinity for Texas. How did that come about? In the mid seventies in Iran, there was a third television station that was created for the consumption of English speaking community living in Iran, American and British and what have you. and it was only in English. And I remember on Fridays, which is equivalent of a Sunday here as a weekend, they used to broadcast the NFL game of the week and the highlights. And back then it was the era of Tom Landry with his hat and of course Tony Dorsett and then the Redskins and what have you. And that star on the helmet somehow attracted me in the first place.

2:56And I said, why not? I've got to like this team. Of course, we had no clue what American football looks like. I learned that later, But still, it was interesting for me to see. That's an interesting sport. And that's how it started. Amazing. And, you know, during the Zonk Revolution in Iran in 1979, you were in fighter pilot school here in Lubbock, Texas. I read that some people came to bother you guys, but Texans came to your defense. Do you mind sharing that story? Well, I was their adopted son in a way. And they said, how dare they come? And, you know, they were ready with their shotguns and say, if they want to mess around with you, we're here to protect you.

3:27I was very touched by that. That's very Texas style. Yeah, absolutely. And that's cool. you're training to be a fighter pilot for a while, huh? Correct. Well, I started flying when I was 13 in Iran. I was the youngest pilot at the time, flying solo on an F-5 jet before leaving Iran. And when I came to the States, the idea was to go to a formal pilot training program, but also not so much for the flying part, but getting to know America in terms of being the crown prince. And of course, my father wanted me to be more acquainted with America and how it operates. So during my stay in Lubbock, I visited many different parts of the country, going to Houston, going to the space center, visiting hospitals or this or that.

4:08It was all part of a package of getting more acquainted. Amazing. We know a few princes, none of them were flying jets as teenagers. That's very fun. But so obviously America was very important to your father. What was it like visiting as a prince back then around in the 70s? Well, I mean, obviously it was an era where I suppose the awareness of another country half the way around the world was reciprocally limited. So, you know, the kind of question I was getting back then is that, you know, do you have camels or ice cream in your country and things like that? I said, okay, yeah, I had to explain.

4:44No, Iran is not flat. We have mountains and snow. Just because we are in the Middle East doesn't even know. Iran was a very modern country back then. People now even don't realize that, you know, people see around the world by the mullahs and it looks like a very backwards country now. But Iran was a very modern country. It is part of the mindset that was created as a result of what I think is the legacy of my father and particularly my grandfather of putting Iran, putting Iran back from the dark ages and putting it on the track for modernity and progress and education and everything that led to our country beginning to prosper.

5:17So people were appreciative of the fact that now we are addressing many social issues, women's rights, things of that nature, which was part of that vision. And of course, in contrast, what the regime did was all of a sudden put us back in the Middle Ages. And when you hear people today just comparing, they say, you know, we should have been today the South Korea of the Middle East. Instead, we become the North Korea, which means it's not the people, it's the system that creates that problem. And the economy was growing rapidly. Women had rights. You had some of the very best universities in the world.

5:49There's still a great electrical engineering talent that comes out of Iran. Some of the most talented people I work with here are from Iran, but they're escaping now to come work. That's correct. While the revolution was occurring, you were obviously in the fighter pilot training, but what's your view of what happened? Tell us about the revolution. Well, obviously, let's not forget that we were at the time of the Cold War. So there was definitely a line of demarcation and confrontation between the two blocks. And there were some who did not see the West as an ally, but rather as the enemy. So whether it was the Marxist tendencies or the Islamist tendencies against that kind of progress or the Western connection were in direct conflict with the policies of the previous regime.

6:29Were there separate groups that were Marxist versus the Islamics as well? Well, there was basically some kind of a partnership between two things that would otherwise be incompatible, because one would be deeply religious, the other one completely atheist, but somehow they ended up, you know, what my father used to refer to as the alliance between the red and the black, red being the communist and black being the Islamist. But the most important aspect of what led to a crisis was, I think, a little bit the fact that although today, retrospectively, if you talk to people at the time were opposed, was the fact that it was a reformable situation that we had as opposed to opting for a complete revolution.

7:12Back then, the mindset was not that. The mindset was, let's get rid of this system, then we'll see. And they bought into this thinking that perhaps this religious symbol is going to bring some different kind of an outcome. By the time people realized what it was all about, it was too late. And since then, Iran has been pretty much entrapced by religious radical theocracy. It's interesting. As revolutions are more dangerous than people realize, because they think they're getting, they're changing one thing, and they're actually changing something else sometimes. Well, I mean, we all have to look at the results.

7:41And the question is, well, now what? Where do we want to go? And what I'm trying to say here is that whatever you hear today from the Gen Z of Iran, what they tell you is that, hey, our country was getting somewhere. Now we are all the way back. How can we reconnect with the world? We want to be part of the free world. We want to be able to have all the, of course, prospect of human rights and liberty and democracy and what have you. But the philosophy, the mindset is the same as the countries want to be allied with. One of the reasons Iranians are very much appreciative of Americans and America is because of, as of a land of an opportunity, as a land when there's freedom of religion and what have you, it goes exactly down the same principle and values that we cherish, unlike a regime that is totally opposed to these values.

8:29And that's where the conflict starts. Well, you know, I'm a great admirer of Iran and of Persian culture, Persian people, Persian food. I wrote a piece on Cyrus the Great recently because I was reading his old book. But, you know, so I don't want to bash what's going on too much, but I would like our listeners to understand, because some of them might not know, what happened with revolution. I understood they hunted down and killed huge numbers of people who had been allies of your family. And obviously, it's a very repressive regime. Can you tell us just a little bit about some of what happened and some of the troubles there?

8:54Well, there were several victims immediately that had to take flight from Iran. One was the immediate persecution against other religions, like the Baha 'is and the Jews. You also had the persecution against people who didn't think alike, the regime who had to take flight from the country. Some of them could not get out in time, and there were ultimately executed ministers, military officers, and what have you, which was basically a decapitation of the system. And in a way, it also perhaps contributed to the conflict between Iran and Iraq shortly after the revolution because Saddam Hussein thought that perhaps this is an opportunity to attack Iran.

9:32He thought they're weak. I can go give them trouble now. Exactly. And since then, you've been a leader and a catalyst in the fight for freedom and human rights in Iran. What are your goals in terms of what you're trying to accomplish and in terms of regime change? Well, I think the most important message that the world needs to understand is that today, the Iranian people are the first one to call for regime change. And why is it important? It's important because if the basic flaw that has existed in Western foreign policy, whether US or its European allies, was the expectation of behavior change.

10:07If you don't understand the true nature of this regime, its DNA, what it is composed of, you will not understand why it is that diplomacy doesn't work with them because they don't see eye to eye. You cannot find an area of compromise. It's either them or you. It's zero sum. The only solution is to look at the Iranian people who are themselves the victim of the regime as your natural allies on the actual, quote unquote, boots on the ground. They are the natural army in place. So part of the strategy at this point where we have to get rid of this regime is to work on a campaign of maximum support.

10:44Tell us about your maximum support plan. How does this actually happen? How do we make this work? Well, understand that maximum support is my suggestion of having a parallel course to maximum pressure. What was maximum pressure so far? Economic sanctions, what have you, depriving the regime from the kind of revenue that it will spend, of course, on its war machine, on its proxies, as opposed to the Iranian people. But that's not enough. In order to bring more pressure, you have to have an internal element of support. That means, first of all, making sure that Iranians are not deprived from access to information.

11:14So internet access was one of the key components. In the tech area, you realize how critical it is to have the connectivity to the outside world. For everything that we do through social media, through messaging, for coordination, organization, what have you. One is in what way can we empower society and enable people to actually support one another. For instance, let's say if you want to bring pressure by means of economic paralysis to the regime, meaning labor strikes, somehow we need to be able to support our working force. There are some elements that ties to current policies of sanctions, which limits the ability to transfer money to send money back home, for instance.

11:50These are the kind of things that has to be worked on. So if people are going to go on strike at the right time and create pressure and the people are going to fight, then they need some other ways of being supported. You're saying you need to be able to send them money, you need to be able to help send them food. At this phase, it's one of the components. And of course, right after the regime's collapse, the question that becomes obvious to all is how do we manage the transition? So what's the plan for that? And on that, there's a whole host of things that need to happen and occur in terms of structure, in terms of organization, in terms of how you fill the boxes.

12:16And here's where the most important aspect of this process of change, which is part of my vision, is how do you maximize defections from the regime? How could you maximize a guarantee of survival beyond this regime to a majority who are not corrupt or involved in criminal action? So you can give them a way to get out and be on the good guy's side and not be punished if they're not too corrupt? Absolutely. There has to be at some point a policy of amnesty. I know people want their day in court and they will get it for people who have really committed crimes against humanity or need to be really accountable for what they did.

12:49But if you think of the bulk of the people who are part of the current bureaucracy, who in fact I know don't want this system, hate the guts of the system, but they cannot openly - They have no choice. Sure. But they need to know that they are not going to be thrown away like the baby with the bath water, that there is going to be a survival beyond this regime. That's part of the policy of reconciliation and amnesty that I'm thinking of, because you want to minimize the cost of change to the nation. So I've heard from a lot of friends, you know, we have a lot of Persian friends in the Bay Area and Los Angeles and all around the country in the US.

13:23And a lot of them are very big fans of yours. And they tell me that there's people who maybe fled Iran driving taxis in Europe and here. And a lot of them have your picture on their phones, the taxi cab drivers. You're an inspirational figure to them. Why is that? Why are people looking up to you? And what gives you the leverage to do this? Well, I think there are several reasons for it. One of it is because after all, the name that I'd carry and the legacy of my father and grandfather resonates very deeply in Iranian society today, now that they have a chance to compare. And especially if you look at today's Gen Z, the young Iranians, I think they have a special connection to me because they understand my message.

13:57They understand my vision. They understand that I'm a man of my times and I'm here with a whole set of new ideas and a different agenda. and they relate to that. And social media has been a great reason for that information because unlike the days I was training in Lubbock, Texas, when communication was very scarce and limited and general knowledge was only based on what you were told by official outlets in government controlled medias or what have you, today's a different world. Today you can get your information instantaneously and nothing can truly be censored as long as you can connect to the VPN and send a message out or receive a message.

14:35And that helps communicate and get an idea of this vision. So for that, I think that they recognize the role that I can play to help them with this transition. And tell us what role can the US and the West play further on? Like, you know, why is Iran allied with Russia, you know, working with China on things against us? What should we be doing differently or how should we be helping with this? Well, when you have regimes that know that they can't count for their survival on popular support. They ultimately have to reach out for other forces to maintain them in power. So in a way, I think from the very beginning when the whole rhetoric of the regime was anti-American, anti-Western, and they started tilting more and more and more, although they were claiming we want independence, but in reality they played more and more into the Soviet orbit at the time and then later on the Russian orbit, a lot of Iranians, the military intelligence structure, security is dominated by Russian influence and support.

15:31So in a way, we should not be surprised that recently in this conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, that Russia is using Iran as, you know, a tool to benefit from it. And that kind of is as a consequence of the regime going... It makes sense that bad guys work together. When bad guys take over in a South American country, they start working with the Russians too sometimes and they do inappropriate things. And, you know, Iran right now, unfortunately, is the chief sponsor of many militant groups around the Middle East. What do they hope to achieve backing Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis firing at ships?

16:08It actually really surprised me, like talking to more people about, they explained to me the Persian people actually don't dislike Israel so much. A lot of the Persian people are very pro-Jewish and knew a lot of Jews. but it seems like this regime just hates Israel, hates America. Like what are they trying to do? Well, again, it's the exportation of an ideology. And one of the components is to create as many proxies so they're not directly focused on. It's a little bit like interesting you in fighting the tentacles rather than the eye of the octopus. That's number one. Number two, part of their strategy is to create an element of regional instability that works in their advantage, antagonizing regional governments, whether it's the Saudis or having a hand in Lebanon or in Iraq or elsewhere.

16:50The proxy war is one way for them to get as much credit without being accountable and answerable directly. All of this is part of this strategy that they have adopted all these years. But obviously, this is a complete different viewpoint from the people of Iran. As you mentioned, especially during this recent campaign of Women Live Freedom, we saw that But in many demonstrations on the streets of Europe and elsewhere, Iranians were marching together with Israelis or Jews with the Iranian flag and the Jewish flag in complete, you know, conflict. It's amazing. We're sharing a lot of values. Absolutely.

17:29And when the U.S. and you tell me this is not appropriate to ask, but when the U.S. tries to make decisions on foreign policy and Trump assassinates Soleimani or when Israel assassinates the leading Iranian generals who are supporting these terror activities, obviously, as a leader of a country, you don't want your people killed. But if these are bad guys, part of a bad regime, is that appropriate for people to be eliminating those players? Or how do we think about that? Well, I mean, it's the unfortunate consequence of a regime that has been fomenting terrorism, among other things. And when it gets ugly, obviously, we can see these kinds of consequences as a byproduct.

18:06Hence more reason to say, look, you can eliminate all of this by changing the nature of what is governing a country. Means liberating a country from a regime that never cared for Iran to begin with. That's what Khomeini said. Let's not forget. He said, after 15 years in exile, I think it was an Italian journalist that asked Khomeini on the plane as he was flying back to Tehran, what are your sentiments of returning to Iran after 15 years in exile? The answer was one word, nothing. That's what he said. I don't care. I'm going to use Iran and its resources to launch my revolution and exporting this modern the Shiite caliphate all the way to the shores of the West, starting with the immediate region.

18:53That was the mindset back then. And that's the part that I don't think many administrations here, or for that matter in Europe, really understood how serious this could get. Because I remember in the early 80s, when I was talking to British parliamentarians or French diplomats or American congressmen or what have you, you know, they were thinking, okay, this is a regional thing. It's a fight between Muslims in that area. How could we be possibly affected by it? But look at how far it has reached. Islamic radicalism has already penetrated many borders in the Western world. And that's part of a problem among other things.

19:30So 45 years later, Khomeini is still there, obviously. He has the Muslims around him. They have the Revolutionary Guard. How big is the ruling group right now? If people wanted to remove the ruling group? Like, what does that consist of? How hard is that to do regime change there? Well, imagine that you have this huge tent with Khamenei as the main pillars. And under this tent, there's a sort of a symbiosis of a mafia-like military paramilitary group that benefits from economic privileges and a whole host of people directly or closely associated with that top ranking element that basically are dividing the country among themselves.

20:05These guys are taking They just control every aspect. But as much as they might be in control, they are also very much in conflict. And I think that at some point in time when Khamenei is no longer around, we're going to see even more of that. So the regime is far more fragile than everybody thinks it is at this point. So I think understanding cleverly that there will be a point and history has proven to all of us that ultimately totalitarian system cannot survive. The question is when, as opposed to whether or not they will continue to exist. But I think it's important that the world so far has confronted critical elements by directly getting involved in putting an end to something.

20:49Best example I can use is the example of putting an end to Nazism in doing the Second World War. And you had strong leadership in Washington and in Britain. You had Roosevelt and you had Churchill. Then it came an era where the Soviet Union had to come into it and you had a strong leadership in the form of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. Today, we're talking about a change that does, it's an internal change, but it needs support. It goes back to my argument about we need to maximize support to the Iranian people. But behind that policy has to be strong leadership, decisive leadership you cannot on the one hand expect iran to change by almost be appeasing and giving more money rather than to the people to a regime that's going to spend it on even more if you appease a bad regime it doesn't make it better of course it's been proven i have another historical question actually for you i'm curious if you don't mind me asking so you know i'm a founder of palantir is one of my companies that you know i've worked with a lot of the global intelligence people especially u.s and allies and one of my mentors ran british intelligence and was involved before the Iraq war in the US.

21:54He tells me that the Iranians are very, very clever, the regime and certain people there. And he says that he believes from the best intelligence he saw that they helped trick the US leaders into thinking there were more WMDs in Iraq because they were worried that US might've gone after them instead. And they knew that if we went into Iraq, we'd get bogged down and we wouldn't bother them. At the time, should the US maybe have gone after the mullahs instead? Was there any reason, was there any excuse to do that at the time? And do you think that's something Iran could have possibly done? I know we don't have the data, but is that a theory of something that they would be smart enough to do?

22:23I think, as I explained to you before, understanding that the root cause of this entire regional mayhem is directly tied to the emergence of this regime in the first place. Because everything else that you see as a consequence was as a result of the revolution in Iran and a regime that brought in every aspect that led to radicalism and what have you. On the other hand, we had events that somehow propelled America to get involved. The same way that had it not been for Pearl Harbor, would America been involved in the Second World War. In a way, what happened in 9-11 propelled a campaign of getting engaged in Afghanistan and later on Iraq.

23:03But all of this is to say that while at the time it was putting an end to an existence, particularly the scenario of Iraq, which was an argument for regime change, which happened, but the way it was handled gave the name regime change a bad reputation. What I've been arguing is that regime change is still the solution just because you didn't - Just because you messed it up one time. Yeah. Yeah. That doesn't mean that it's the wrong concept. Particularly if it is the ask of the people there. You are basically addressing that. So either you say, look, we can either hope that Yet again, we can cut some kind of a deal with a regime that has never been honest, that has always been non-transparent and with ill intentions.

23:49Or we can trust a nation that say, hey, liberate, help us be free. And you will see that our values, our aspirations, our interests are one and the same. And it's only a win-win scenario that you can anticipate out of it. It seems to me it's too bad that Bush and Cheney and Rice didn't do this with Iran 20 years ago. It might have been better for everyone. Well, I don't think anybody was truly ready back at the time. I must be honest with you. I think that a lot of change had to occur, particularly inside Iran, in sense of, well, how much this expectation of gradual change or reform actually will pay off?

24:26because this reform game has been the key argument for diplomats in the West. They're saying, you know, well, some of them are more hawkish. Some of them are more moderate. Maybe we should allow the moderates to gain more traction by helping them as opposed to the more hawkish ones. They even said that at the time of the Soviet Union. Some people said, you know, Andropov is more moderate than Chernenko. Why? Well, you know, he likes jazz music and drinks whiskey. Oh, is that your indication of more moderation? But in a way, it may sound funny, But actually, when they looked at Mohammad Khatami at the time, or for instance, other so-called moderates in Iran, people in Iran are way past that.