In short
Podcast Notes: Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist - Episode 93
Guest
Dmitri Alperovitch
- Co-founder of CrowdStrike
- Chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator
- Author of "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century"
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Overview In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the current geopolitical landscape characterized as "Cold War II," focusing on the increasing tensions between the United States and China. He draws parallels between the Cold War with the Soviet Union and the current competition with China, particularly regarding technological supremacy and national security.
Key Topics Discussed
- Entrepreneurial Journey:
- Transition from founding CrowdStrike to focusing on policy.
- Experience with cybersecurity in relation to national security.
- Cold War II Thesis:
- Definition of "Cold War II" highlighting global competition and technological warfare.
- Comparison of the military, political, and technology arms race between the U.S. and China.
- Evaluation of China's cyber activities in relation to U.S. infrastructure threats.
- China's Intentions Toward Taiwan:
- Predictions about a potential invasion of Taiwan and the strategies China may employ.
- Discussion on deterrence strategies the U.S. can adopt to prevent conflict.
- Technological Race:
- Importance of maintaining superiority in critical technologies: AI, biotech, space, and green energy.
- Current advantages of the U.S. over China in these areas.
- Resilience of the U.S.:
- Citing the strengths of the U.S. including immigration, innovation, investment, influence, and ideas.
- Emphasis on the need for a strong merit-based immigration policy to attract talent.
- China's Weaknesses:
- Demographic challenges facing China and the implications for future military engagements.
- The need for the U.S. to capitalize on these weaknesses while strengthening its own technological and military capacities.
- Policy Recommendations:
- Call for more effective U.S. policies to protect critical infrastructure and bolster domestic technology sectors.
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Key Takeaways
- Predictions of Conflict: Dmitri predicted Putin's invasion of Ukraine and sees similar signals with China regarding Taiwan, stressing the need for the U.S. to be proactive in deterrence.
- Technological Supremacy: The U.S. must remain ahead in key technological areas to prevent a Cold War from escalating into open conflict.
- U.S. Resilience: Despite challenges, the U.S. possesses significant strengths that can be leveraged against China, including its innovative capacity and extensive market.
- Geopolitical Engagement: Entrepreneurs and policymakers should engage in geopolitics as it influences market dynamics and competitive advantages.
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Conclusion The episode emphasizes the critical nature of understanding the current geopolitical tensions and the importance of strategic planning and innovation in maintaining the U.S.'s position in the global landscape. Dmitri's insights provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the U.S. in the context of Cold War II.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00We're in a new Cold War and a new Cold War with China, Cold War II. First of all, you have unquestionably a global competition for supremacy. Then you have a technological war that's going on. We have a spy war going on. The FBI believes that there is more Chinese espionage against this country, both cyber and traditional, than ever during the first Cold War. We have a race to the moon, right? The defining characteristic of the first Cold War was a space race. And once again, we're trying to get to the moon before the Chinese and then maybe to Mars after that.
0:38dmitry's family came over after the fall of the soviet union his father was a nuclear physicist he's a really bright young man who founded crowd strike one of the most important american companies has billions and billions of revenue and we're really lucky for our country that he's now working in the policy world before russia invaded ukraine he called to explain it was going to happen he's now focused on china what they're going to do with taiwan and how we can compete against them and win in this Cold War II. He's written a really important book that's worth all of our policymakers and Americans who care about these issues reading.
1:06And it's really great to have one of the great minds in the innovation world, clearly an extremely bright guy who understands the world, working and fighting for the USA, where he's proud to be our citizen and a patriot. Excited for you guys to meet Dimitri. I'm Joe Lonsdale. Welcome to American Optimist. Excited to have Dimitri Alperovitch on with us today. Dimitri, thanks for joining us. Thanks so much for having me. Dimitri, I guess you're probably best known as the co-founder of CrowdStrike, Because it's a huge company. You're also becoming really influential in policy circles in DC these days.
1:33I'm trying. Yeah, I retired from the company back in 2020, four and a half years ago now. I've been really focused on geopolitics and policy for the last three, four years now, and particularly focused on accelerating solutions to help us in our competition with China. I think the title of your latest book, World on the Brink, is very, very relevant today. It does feel like we're a lot on the brink, especially as we await everything going on right now. Let's go to your background at first. Your family immigrated from Moscow to the US after the fall of the Soviet Union. And your father was a nuclear physicist, an expert in applied mathematics.
2:09Tell us a little bit about your upbringing. You really got into the world of cryptography and encryption early on, right? Yeah, that's right. So we immigrated in the mid-90s, and I ended up in Chattanooga, Tennessee, of all places, going to high school there. And my dad, he was working for TVA, Tennessee Valley Authority, but was kind of bored. even though he was working on some really cool stuff, which was the deregulation of the energy sector in the US and the free flow of electricity, being able to trade it based on spot pricing across the country. And he built some of those systems for TVA very early on, but still not as intellectually interesting as designing simulators for nuclear power plants.
2:47So he got really interested in the mathematics behind the emerging field of elliptic curve cryptography, public key encryption. And I started helping him out as a high school kid. And that's what really got me into this industry. And 30 years later, I'm still doing it in some ways. Amazing. Well, it sounds like your dad was a really bright guy. I guess you'd take after him. So how did that lead to founding CrowdStrike exactly? How much revenue does CrowdStrike have now? I know you haven't been there for four years, but it's a giant company, right? It's like$4 or $5 billion of revenue or something?
3:17Yeah. So market cap is, now it's a little bit lower, but about$60 billion. So it's a significant company in the S &P 500. So it's really fascinating to build something from nothing into a massive behemoth company. What were the keys briefly, do you think, to your success and growth? How did it get to be so big? Well, first of all, identifying a really huge market and security, cybersecurity is a really fragmented market. There's probably 100 different subsegments within it. But we focused on the biggest one, which is endpoint security, as it's called. Basically, agents on your laptops, desktop servers that protect you against malware, against intrusions from various actors, ransomware groups, etc.
3:59And we went after the dinosaurs in that field, McAfee and Symantec. They were, at the time, the biggest companies doing this. I was actually at one of those, McAfee. And we realized, well, at McAfee that these companies were just incapable of innovation. They were born in the 1980s, got very successful, but also stagnated. And there was no innovation. They became public companies, very difficult to invest in new capabilities, hire up people for new innovative fields. And I initially tried to basically do CrowdStrike within McAfee, and it was impossible to do so. So I said, you know what, let's get out of here and let's start a company.
4:42Amazing. What year was that? That was 2011. Wow, it's very fast. It's funny, you and I are in a somewhat similar position in the sense that we both co-founded companies that are$60 billion plus public companies. And both of us still get credit or discredit for what goes on there, even if we're out many years later. CrowdStrike is an amazing company. You've been gone for a while recently, had caused some issues. There are some pictures of airports with fail screens around the world that were unfortunate. Just really briefly, what happened there? It sounds like they weren't following the right protocols for releasing software.
5:14It seems like a basic thing to mess up, or is there something more complicated? Well, this is a very complicated product. They just released a full root cause analysis of it, so I'm not going to reiterate what they said publicly. As you said, I haven't been there in four and a half years. But essentially, a faulty update got released, unfortunately, to the entire population of their customers. And a huge percentage of them got impacted. And it went into a perpetual blue screen mode on Windows, where basically it crashes the system. You reboot, it crashes again. And it took, unfortunately, a few days for most customers to get back up online.
5:52And for some others, it took a lot longer. Hopefully we recover and they won't do it again. But it's not your fault. You're already out. So you've been on the front lines, obviously, of cyber warfare. I want to get to your book because there's all sorts of fun stories in there. But tell us a little bit about the threats posed by China, Russia, and other bad actors in cyber warfare. What should we be most worried about? Are they going to take down the electric grid? Everyone always talks about it. Are they going to destroy our banking system? Is there something else? What are the threats there?
6:17So this is really interesting because when I started CrowdStrike in 2011, I was mostly concerned about China. In fact, that's what led me to want to get out of McAfee and to start this organization because I had worked on a case at McAfee called Aurora that I named Aurora, which was a hack of Google by China. Some of your listeners may remember that. And they hacked into Google, they hacked into a number of other companies. And this was Chinese government, and Chinese intelligence services that were doing this. The first time that the public sort of woke up to the threat of another nation state breaking into private sector companies, stealing intellectual property, stealing trade secrets for the benefit of their own domestic industry.
6:57And then for the next decade, I basically worked nonstop on massive numbers of espionage cases, mostly from China, but also a number of them from Russia, Iran, North Korea. But what's different now, and particularly from China, is in the last couple of years, you had the emergence of this new threat vector that is called Volt Typhoon, which is the Chinese military breaking into organizations. But instead of stealing trade secrets, instead of stealing source code, they're basically getting to companies that have nothing valuable to steal from an information perspective. It's small water utilities, small electric utilities.
7:32It's porter operators. And the US government believes that they're getting into these organizations purely for the purposes of doing reconnaissance inside the network and maintaining access so that they can take it down in the event of a conflict with the United States to try to deter us from intervening in a conflict of real estate Taiwan or potentially slow down the flow of forces of the U.S. military to the region to help defend Taiwan. Is it possible they still have access right now to tons of our utilities? Shouldn't we be able to figure out how to turn that off? Couldn't just CropTruck or others get in there and cut the access?
8:07or do you think they still have access to a lot? Well, the US government believes that they do. And the problem is that they're targeting organizations that have very few resources, like your typical municipal utility is not going to even have a security person, maybe an IT person if you're lucky, not going to have a budget for a lot of security technologies. So it's ironic that these are the critical infrastructures that we depend the most for daily life. And they also have the least amount of money to protect them, right? This is not the banking sector. This is not, you know, Google. Shouldn't Congress be paying to protect all our utilities?
8:40Shouldn't that be an obvious US bill? I mean, I'm against government spending money in general, but I'm fine with like government paying to buy CrowdStrike or whatever else for all these utilities. It sounds crazy. Isn't that like a basic bill that would be pretty bipartisan or like, where are we on that? Yeah. So this is an ongoing debate now with utilities. Of course, the model for funding them for capital improvement projects, right, is that they raise the rates on your electricity or your water to do something like that. So that is probably the right model to think about. Of course, that's going to be done at a state or local level to do it.
9:10But Congress may need to allocate some funding to help. But we also need to start thinking about deterrence and how do we send a signal to China that this is unacceptable, this is a red line, right? When you are not just, I mean, theft itself from economic espionage perspective, I've argued for 15 plus years is bad enough. But to break in for the purposes of disruption or destruction is unacceptable, particularly in the area of peacetime. And unless they stop, we need to institute really severe repercussions on that. We should be punishing China much more directly today and shouldn't be doing business with them while they're doing that.
9:47I totally agree. But it's like, if I see, like I'm friends with these governors, if I see Governor Abbott or Governor, you know, Florida, Governor Santis next week, to have these states actually put these cyber defense things in, should they be? Should they be more aware of it? Is this something you've worked on at all? um i don't know how where the states are i know the federal government at multiple levels intelligence community dhs and others are working very closely with individual victims uh i don't know at which level the state governments are involved okay well this is an ongoing issue yeah it seems like a crazy issue that we haven't haven't handled i guess yeah i always worry our government's not as competent these days as it was back when we went to the moon is what we how we talk about it there's for various reasons so we hopefully can fix some of these things.
10:27Let's jump into your new book, Dimitri. It's World on the Brink, How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. Can you explain a little bit about your Cold War II thesis? I think it was just kind of the premise of the book. Tell us about that. Yeah. So I believe for a long time that we're in a new Cold War and a new Cold War with China, Cold War II, Roman numeral II. It's different from the first Cold War, just like World War II is different from World War I, but they're both World Wars. And I believe these are both Cold Wars. And actually, going into the book, I had this assumption that the two conflicts are just vastly different on every level.
11:01And doing the deep research, and there's a lot of history in this book, particularly of the first Cold War, it's striking to me how similar the two conflicts actually are. There are some similarities to be sure, but the number of similarities is just absolutely striking. And let me just walk you through a few of them. So first of all, You have unquestionably global competition for supremacy, just like what we had with the Soviet Union that plays out in every geographic area, right? Not just in Asia, but in Europe and Latin America, back here in our country. You have it playing out in the military sphere, in the political sphere, geostrategic sphere and technological sphere.
11:42You have an arms race. Both of our militaries are building up for a potential conflict, not just a conventional one, but a nuclear one as well. and particularly on the part of China. They're trying to desperately to match us in a number of deployed nuclear warheads. For many decades now, since they acquired nuclear warheads, they've been stable at about 300. And lately, since about four or five years ago, they started to massively build up both the warheads themselves as well as the missile silos to launch them. And they're going to be estimated by the US intelligence community at about 1 ,000 by the end of the decade and potentially about 1 ,500, which is what we have deployed by mid-2030s.
12:25Then you have a technological war that's going on, right? We're trying to restrict them from getting access to chips so that they stay behind us in the AI race. We have an economic warfare, and particularly the trade war that was started by Trump continuing under Biden. And, of course, I've argued for 15 years that they've been waging economic warfare against us through this economic espionage and IP theft. We have a spy war going on. The FBI believes that there is more Chinese espionage against this country, both cyber and traditional, than ever during the first Cold War with KGB trying to infiltrate our country, right?
13:02Just absolutely astounding. We have a race to the moon, right? The defining characteristic of the first Cold War was the space race. And once again, we're trying to get to the moon before the Chinese and then maybe to Mars after that. and we have a scramble for military bases, particularly in the region, where for the first time in 32 years, getting access to the military bases in the Philippines after they kind of kicked us out in 1992. Now they want us back because of the threat of China. We're enhancing our deployment in Japan, in Guam and elsewhere around the region. The Chinese are doing the same thing in Cambodia, in Pakistan, even in Djibouti, in Eastern Africa.
13:45So, you know, in so many levels, you have this competition that's playing out. And it's also ideological in nature. Now, recent documents from the Cold War, particularly declassified from the Soviet Union, suggest that the first Cold War was actually not as ideological as we once thought in terms of the Soviets were not driven by ideology. They were driven really by this competition with us. But communism was important to them early on. But basically after Stalin, they cared a lot less about the spread of communism and they just cared about competing with us. So it was more about power, more about the authoritarians in charge cared about power.
14:21Well, so how important is that to understand China as a Marxist-Leninist regime then? Like how much do they actually, like Xi Jinping cared a lot more about communism than I thought based on what we've seen in the last five years. I think you have to be like insanely stupid to care about it. But does he really care about it still? Like I assumed he just didn't, but it seems like he might. Like what's going on there? He absolutely does. In fact, when he came to power in 2013, right, when everyone was touting him as this great reformer, you know, Biden thought that this is a guy that we could do business with when he was vice president and Obama sent him to to wine and dine him.
14:53Yeah. Back then, he gave the speech basically outline what now has become Xi's thought that everyone has to study in China, talking about how China is absolutely committed to socialism with Chinese characteristics, as they've called it for decades. But he said socialism with Chinese characteristics is absolutely still socialism. It is guided by the principle of socialism. It is based on Marxist Leninism and Mao Zedong's thoughts. And we are committed to socialism winning across the globe. And, you know, when you look at the tenets of his his thinking and the Chinese Communist Party, there are a number of them that are sort of completely traditional Marxist Leninist thinking.
15:37The leadership role of the Communist Party in absolutely everything from business to social life to obviously political and military control of the country. A state-directed economy. Obviously, they're allowing market elements within that economy, but he has instituted a lot of state control over the sectors of the economy. Jack Ma has been basically exiled because he dared to kind of try to do his own thing at Alibaba. Not just Jack Ma, huge numbers of tech leaders. I had a friend who was killed early last year in Beijing at the age of 47, right before he could come and go IPO. I mean, there's huge numbers of tech leaders they've cracked down on, which to me suggested for a while, it was just like he was just jealous of the popularity of these powerful tech guys.
16:19And he was using socialism to excuse that. But it's fascinating to hear from you and others that he really does seem to believe in the socialism, which we kind of know doesn't really work. Like the only reason China has wealth is because it has this like free market side of it. to him, it's almost like socialism is a form of power and government control. Is that what it's about? It is. I think it's about total population control, keeping himself and obviously the CCP in power, making sure that no one arises that can potentially challenge the system. And this is what they've learned, right, from the Soviet Union, right?
16:51And he has studied the collapse of the Soviet Union extensively. And he's learned that the great mistake of Gorbachev was to go for political liberalization and allowing freedom of speech, allowing other parties to compete. And that, he believes, is what led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. And he said, no, no, no, we're never going to let that happen. We're going to make sure that we control everything as tightly as possible. And no one, not Jack Ma, not anyone else, is going to challenge or hold on power. That's why you have so much penetration of the Chinese Communist Party within these companies, right, where they have offices inside these large organizations, even though they're completely private sector organizations, not even the state-owned enterprises, because they want to make sure that they're aware of any potential, even future challenges to their role in government.
17:40I have a question along those lines. So it's something very interesting that I didn't expect to see in the West the last several years, which is that we've had a lot of challenges of freedom of speech in the West. We've had a lot of state-sponsored censorship in America, in Australia, in the UK, with lots of NGOs getting government money, trying to say you shouldn't say certain things are too dangerous to say. This has all come pretty much from the left and a lot of people on the left, of course, on the far left, like socialism. Is there a link between China and some of this censorship going on in the West?
18:07Is that something they would naturally want to encourage? Or is this something that's just a coincidence? No, I haven't seen that, but they are certainly trying to censor our speech in America as far as China is concerned, right? And they're retaliating against companies that dare to have the name Taiwan on a map, like airlines or hotels. themselves uh they're retaliating against anyone that dares to bring up that covid may have uh not even the theories that uh covid may have been a lab leak but you know australia famously said you know let's just have an independent investigation what happened here right without even uh presupposing what the outcome would be and what did they get an embargo on their exports wine barley a bunch of other things that they tried to really squeeze the australian economy didn't work, of course, but the attempt was there.
18:55And they do this all over the world that anyone that ever tries to confront them on any issue, they're going to retaliate severely against. I see this, and you may not, but I see this a lot in the far left in the US as well. A lot of our universities, you say certain things against certain topics. If you're a skeptic of certain things that they like to believe, then you're canceled from your career, you're kept out, you're not allowed to advance. So for me, these are very similar, the CCP and the extreme left in the West, but maybe it's not a link. I want to ask about something really impressive.
19:23On December 21st, 2021, Dmitry, you predicted that Putin would invade Ukraine. And months later, he did. What signals did you observe for that? And do you see any similar patterns for China and Taiwan? Like, how do we use what you learned there for the next big question? Yeah. So obviously, I was born in Russia. I've been watching Putin for the last 25 years and And I feel like I understand the guy pretty well. Watched his speeches, watched what he's done over the years. And he's fundamentally a gambler. He's fundamentally someone that will make calculated gambles, but nevertheless gambles. And just to give you a sense of this, one example really stands out that people did not really think through at the time.
20:04But when he came to power, first as prime minister, and then six months later as president, acting president in 1999, one of his very first acts in office was to restart the Chechen War. Now, just to give you a sense of this, right, the Chechen War was a very traumatic period in Russian history in the 1990s, two-year conflict, very brutal. They lost it badly, had a lot of terrorist attacks from Islamists based in Chechnya. It was sort of like their Vietnam. And three years later, after losing the war, he decides to go back in. It's imagine, you know, we left Vietnam and in the early 70s and three, four years later, we'll go back in.
20:43It's just insanity. Right. But he gambles. And guess what? He wins. Right. He actually manages to win this conflict through brutal oppression, torture, bribery, et cetera. But he wins. Two decades later, he goes into Syria to rescue Assad. Right. Remember, Obama said at the time, this is going to be a quagmire for Russia. This is going to be devastating. What does he do? He wins with very little commitment of ground forces, mostly using guys like Wagner and his air force to bomb just absolutely everything in places like Aleppo, carpet bomb it. But he wins, right? So he's done this many times, Crimea, obviously in 2014 as well.
21:22This was a bigger gamble and one that has not worked out as well for him, but it is very much in character. And when I predicted with great confidence back in December of 21, about three months before the start of the war that he was going to do it, there were basically five reasons that I thought were driving him. First and foremost, ego. This is a man that is obsessed with his legacy. He views himself as a new Peter the Great, who, you know, he was born, by the way, in St. Petersburg, Leningrad, as it was called at the time, the city that was founded by Peter the Great. So I think he's got a great kinship with him.
21:56Peter the Great, of course, expanded the Russian Empire. I think Putin views himself as someone who is going to expand the old empire and try to, if not overtly, at least through influence campaigns, try to rebuild the old lands that were part of the Russian empire. And he's certainly doing that with Belarus, basically having a lot of political control over that country, even though it's ostensibly independent. He was trying to do that with Ukraine for many years, supporting various pro-Russian figures. And in the end, he kind of said, it's not working. I got to go in. I got to actually annex at least part of this place if I can't control it fully.
22:33He's got a distorted view of history. He believes Ukraine is not a nation, that it always belonged to Russia. Of course, completely false, but that's his belief. And the other elements that I think are really important here also are destiny, his own view of his personal destiny and this country's destiny as being sort of this great place, the largest landmass in the world. And Ukraine, obviously, a key component to that, but also security and geography. And the Russians have always looked at Ukraine and Belarus as well as these critical buffer states that have helped to protect them against foreign invasions, particularly those coming from Europe, whether it's Napoleon, Hitler, the Tonic Knights, the Poles, numerous attempts to invade Russia over a thousand year history, mostly coming through either Ukraine, Belarus.
23:24and, you know, inevitably those lands gave them time to mobilize before the adversaries reach Moscow and to get a defense going. It feels like he's living like in a two, 300 year ago history though. I mean, he has nuclear deterrence. No one's ever going to invade Russia, right? In the next hundred years. It just seems totally insane, right? Why would he be thinking of it that way? But he really is, you think? No, I'm convinced he is. And by the way, the distance from the borders of Ukraine to Moscow are not that long because, you know, just a year ago when we had this Wagner Muni, when Prigozhin marched in Moscow, he left his training camps in Eastern Ukraine and within eight hours was on the outskirts of Moscow and no one was stopping him.
24:03Right. So it is very important. And also from an offensive perspective, if you want to project power into Europe and threaten Poland, threaten Europe, you have to get through Ukraine. Right. So that seems more likely what he's interested in than defensive. I think both play a role. You know, how much, you know, it's always hard to tell with these multi-causal conflicts. But I think those five reasons were driving him. And the reason I wrote this book, and I started writing it right after the war broke out, because I was sort of doing the retrospective, okay, I was right, unfortunately, and we couldn't stop this war.
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24:37But I realized the same reasons were driving Xi Jinping to want to take Taiwan. On a longer timescale, it's not imminent. I think it could happen no earlier than 2028. but that conflict, should it erupt, would have much more devastating effects on American livelihood, on our security, on really the entire globe, right? Immediately, right off the bat, the estimates are that you would lose$10 trillion of value in the global economy if there's a conflict over Taiwan, global depression on levels we haven't seen since the 1930s. So really, really important to try to deter this. And I think the lessons from Russia invading Ukraine are very apt for the conflict in the Pacific.
25:17As a sci-fi fan, you know, I've built a few very large defense companies. So I really enjoyed the introduction of your book because you actually laid out a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2028. Can you walk us a little bit through that scenario and tell us some of what would probably involve in the outcomes? Yeah, so I spent a lot of time on the ground in Taiwan, walking the terrain, getting appreciation for how hard it is to invade this place. And I think people that haven't been there may not get the appreciation. They think, oh, it's a small island, 100 miles off Chinese shore. how hard can it be?
25:46And it's really a hellish place to invade because you've got the strait itself, the Taiwan Strait, a hundred miles that you have to cross. One of the most brutal waters in the world. I mean, half the year, it's basically impassable to anything but large container ships. You've got very shallow waters near any of the beaches. So you can't get any of your ships in close by, close in, uh, to unload troops and logistics. Uh, you've got, uh, mountains, you've got rivers, tunnels, bridges, right? So even if you manage to unload, you've got to fight through a really terrible terrain. This is not the open fields of Ukraine in any way.
26:21And one of the things that was really interesting in doing research for the book is actually looking at an invasion plan of the asylum from 1944. It was put together by the joint staff. It was called Operation Causeway. Of course, at the time, Formosa, as Taiwan was called at the time, was occupied by the Japanese. They had a substantial contingent of forces there. And right after D-Day, right after the success of Normandy, we were starting to look at basically taking the lessons of that and applying it to Taiwan. And D-Day, just to refresh your memory, was about 150, 160 ,000 Allied troops in the first wave crossing the English Channel about the same size as Taiwan Strait, landing on the beaches of Normandy, obviously being successful.
27:01Operation Causeway called for double that number, over 300 ,000. You had twice as many people to invade Taiwan even back then. Huge, huge. And it called for two months of really brutal fighting up the island, suffering about 45 ,000 casualties. We lost about 2 ,500 on D-Day, just to give you a sense. And ultimately, Roosevelt, MacArthur, and others looked at this and said, no, this is too hard, too complex, too risky. We're going to bypass Taiwan and go for Okinawa. Thank goodness we had another way to end the war versus sending lots of people to die in Japan. Right. So this is really, really hard.
27:38It was hard in 1944. You know, 80 years later, it's even harder, of course, with the modern defensive weapons, anti-ship missiles, smart mines, drones, all those capabilities. So this is an incredibly difficult operation for the Chinese to pull off. If they manage to pull it off, it will be the most complex military operation in history. So you have to have that context first and foremost. When you get to the island, you realize that this beach invasion that everyone talks about is basically not doable. The beaches are very small. As I mentioned, the waters next to them are very shallow. More importantly, they can be completely far controlled from the neighboring hills.
28:13So this will be a complete slaughter. And even more importantly, the key to the Normandy invasion was not just landing on the beaches, but establishing those mulberry ports, right? Those floating docks that you could use to bring in armor, logistics to support this massive invasion force. Without that, this would not have worked. You can't do that in the Taiwan Strait. It's too rough. You know, just look at what happened in Gaza when we tried to build a floating port to supply aid to Gaza. It lasted all five days. And the Mediterranean is basically a lake compared to the Taiwan Strait. So the beaches are not doable.
28:46And in fact, back in 1944, that was the conclusion that the Joint Staff came to as well, because their plan called for taking the port, the port in the south that you need to use to unload the massive number of troops. And I believe the same will play out here, that you need to take the port. And particularly now, you have the thing that the U.S. military did not have in 1944. You have the modern port of Taipei that was built right across the strait that leads you right into the city of Taipei, the capital city. You need to take out that port, obviously, if they're going to come get you, because that's how they get you.
29:21Yeah. Now, that port is very critical to the Taiwanese economy. So if they mount, if the Chinese mount an air assault, as I write in the book, against that port and they manage to seize it, as well as the critical airfields, international airport that's not too far from that port and the airport in the city of Taipei itself, that gives them a huge platform to bring in the massive number of troops that you need to invade this place. Probably at least 600 ,000 minimum, probably closer to a million realistically to occupy this island of 24 million people. That is a critical piece of that infrastructure.
29:53So the scenario lays out in great detail, step by step, how you could accomplish it. And the key thing that they will have is that is a huge advantage for them is that they can load up this massive invasion fleet. Right. Hundreds of thousands of personnel, logistics, armor, et cetera. They can leave the Chinese ports. They can cross the Taiwan Strait. They can cross the median line. They can get to within 12 nautical mile distance of Taiwan itself, which delineates their internationally recognized borders. Well, internationally recognized by a few countries, but generally speaking, internationally recognized 12 nautical mile boundary.
30:31And Taiwan can't fire first. In fact, we will tell them that you can't fire first on the Chinese because you don't wanna be the one that will quote unquote provoke the war. Just as the Ukrainians couldn't fire on the Russians as they were amassing this massive invasion force on their borders until they cross. This is Israel can't fire on Hezbollah and Iran as they're preparing to fire on them right now. It's, yeah, exactly. That's the dilemma. It seems to me like I would have like lots and lots and lots of hidden mines on that port so that if they were to take it, I would just secretly blow up all their stuff at some point while they're trying to come in and destroy the whole thing.
31:02But I guess that's a question if they're going to do that or not. But that's really hard, right? Because that port is essential to the Taiwanese economy. So if this is an exercise and if they're not invading, right, you're going to mine your own port and you're going to shut down your economy. It's actually taken and being used against you. And then you'd have to be able to trigger them. This is a dilemma, right? And this is what Zelensky had as a dilemma for him is like he didn't want to shut down the economy in the lead up to the invasion and let people leave and so forth because that plays into the Russia's hands.
31:31So this is the challenge that the Chinese will face, that we will face because we won't want to fire first either and be accused of starting the war. And that gives him an enormous advantage. So later in the book, Dimitri, you make the case that China is actually weaker than we think. Why is that? I think it's quite obvious. First of all, we've made them 10 feet tall in our minds for the last 20, 30 years because obviously they've had this huge economic growth. They have the world's biggest population, at least until recently. But the reality is they're not 10 feet tall. They're not three feet tall either, but they have enormous problems.
32:05First of all, their population is in a demographics collapse. They're already losing at least a million people a year, and that's only going to accelerate throughout the century. So 1.4 billion people today. Conservatively speaking, people are projecting that by the end of the century, they'll have 550 million, right? Which is just a striking population collapse that we have never seen in history. It's a big collapse, but there's several hundred million today that are like very poor, that are brought up without nutrition. They're not contributing to their economy. Whereas by later on, these will all be probably modern, educated people.
32:36So it's not as big of a collapse when you think of that, right? Well, no, because most of them, by the way, will be older. and your ability to support the younger population, the worker population to support the massively older population is going to be a huge challenge, not to mention the healthcare costs are going to go through the roof, right? That's fair. The economy is not yet feeling this population decline, which is very, very deflationary. And you'll probably start feeling it next decade because they still have this very poor population that is moving into the cities, right? That right now is doing agriculture, but as they move into the cities, work in the factories, they'll be more productive.
33:15So they'll get that benefit. But basically in the 2030s, this is going to come to effectively an end. And that's when you're going to start to see the decline in the population really impacting your productivity, impacting your ability to consume goods, manufacture goods. If they know this, do they think they want to take any kind of aggressive actions before they feel that weakness in the 2030s? Is that why late 2020s is more likely to be like a flashpoint? No, I think it's actually driven by Xi Jinping's personal ego more than anything else. I think like Putin, he wants this accomplished on his own watch.
33:48And right now he's not ready. And we know that he knows that he's not ready because he's given an order, according to the CIA director, to have his military be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. That doesn't mean he will, but the fact that he's given the order to be ready means that he knows that he's not today. The reason I don't think it will happen in 27 is twofold. One, as you well know, Joe, just because you give an order to a government agency, either here in China, to be ready by a certain date doesn't mean it actually will. It might take a few years longer. And two, 27 is a very symbolic date for him, right?
34:21First of all, it's a hundred year anniversary of the creation of the People's Liberation Army. It was created before the state was formed because it's actually not a military of the state. It is the military of the Chinese Communist Party. Yep. Right. And obviously they won the Civil War and in 49 created the state. And it's his reelection year. So he's likely to win another five year term in 2027. And imagine the symbolism of him going up in front of the Chinese Party Congress in October, November of that year and saying, for the first time since the creation of the PLA in the hundred years we've had this military, we can now take Taiwan at a moment of our choosing.
34:57Incredible coup, right? and incredibly beneficial for him politically. But also, 27 is kind of his election year. I mean, there's no elections as we think of it in China, but there is an election within the Chinese Communist Party. And yes, he's filled it with loyalists. He's tampered dissent in there, but it still takes bureaucratic work to make sure that there's no one that's going to challenge him, that everything is going to be tight, completely orchestrated. And that takes a lot of effort. So the last thing you want to do is mount the largest military operation in history while you're going through all of that.
35:30So I think in 28, once he gets past the election, he gets past instituting the five-year plan, bringing in the new team, all the bureaucratic things that happen when you have even a new term, that's when he starts thinking about what he wants to accomplish in the next five years. And as he is thinking towards 2032, when the term runs out, he's going to be 79, right? So he's just seen Biden. and what happens to you when you get old. By the way, the Chinese system, they don't tend to elect their leaders into their 80s. So something that we maybe should have learned from earlier. But it's going to be uncertain both health-wise, politically, whether he's going to be able to get another five-year term.
36:13And if he wants it to be accomplished on his own watch, I think that's going to be the window in his mind, at least, 28 through 32. And beyond that, I don't think he's penciled the date certain in the calendar. It's going to be conditions dependent. and when he thinks he's ready, when he thinks it's the most suitable time. But it could happen, I think, as soon as 2028. And the other thing is that if he waits too long into the 20s, 30s, and 40s, it's going to get much worse because we've finally woken up to the threat, right? For the last 20 years, we were distracted in the Middle East and elsewhere.
36:45But now we know that China is a major threat. It's threatening Taiwan. We're trying to build up. We're behind. It's going to take time. But companies like Andrel and others are coming up with all kinds of technologies. We're trying to increase our capabilities. And if you wait a decade or more, you'll find yourself with a military balance of power that does not favor this invasion. We're sprinting really quickly, Dimitri. We have companies like Sironic just raised at a billion-dollar valuation. And we're going to be putting hundreds next year and then thousands of small weaponized autonomous vessels in the water.
37:16So I think America really is ramping up the next few years, which is why. So this is a race, right? Who's going to get there faster? I'm worried he might have to move sooner even because I think we'll be ready by then. But you also have a chapter about the U.S. titled, We Are Stronger Than We Think. So what are our best advantages over China right now? Like you said, we're waking up, but what do we have right now that's strong? I think we have five key advantages, not just over China, but over anywhere else, right? And I think I have unique expertise in this as an immigrant to this country who's lived in another place and who can tell Americans that the grass is not greener.
37:46Like, you know, obviously I was a young kid when I came over, but my parents and even myself at an age of 13 chose this country, right? Because it is the best place. And I call this the five eyes with an eye, not five eyes as the five intelligence agencies that our allies are called. First one is immigration. And just like I was able to come to this country, some of the best and brightest people have been able to come to this country over the history of this place, including many of, of course, our founding fathers, like Alexander Hamilton, for example, and make this country better, right? People like Fermi that have helped to create the atomic bomb and help us to create deterrence in the Cold War and so many, many others.
38:28And I really love the quote I talk about in the book from Scott Galloway, who says that every single year, there's a draft for human talent around the world. And every year, the US gets the top picks. Now, because we have a messed up immigration system where we don't have a merit based program. We don't necessarily take those topics. And it's sort of based on who is able to jump across the border, which is not obviously both from a security perspective and from the ability to pick the very best is not ideal. But still, our ability to track people into this country is incredibly helpful. Despite ourselves, we're still winning on that side.
39:03We'll have to make it better, but we're still winning. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe the first generation of the people that are coming across is not going to be as contributing as we would like them to, but their kids, their grandkids for sure are going to be incredibly powerful assets to this country. And if we didn't have immigration, we would today have the same number of people as we had in 1970s, right? So we ourselves would be in a population decline effectively or stagnation and eventual decline because our birth rates are dropping as there are everywhere else in the world. So this is really critical for us.
39:34Second is innovation. I don't have to tell you the power of innovation. what we can do in the Valley, in a place like Austin, really across the country. And you see this not just in software, but now in defense and so many other areas, obviously leading in AI. It's not an accident that all the major AI models that are any good are built in this country, nowhere else, not in China, not even in France. Mistral is a great company, but they're not ChatGPT, they're not Claude, they're not Gemini. The third one that will be very near and dear to your heart is investment. The access to capital that we have in this country is unbelievable.
40:13We have more than 10 ,000 banks and credit unions, more per capita than anywhere else in the world. Thousands of venture capital firms like yours, private equity, family offices, private credit firms. If you're starting a company, there's no better place on the planet to raise money than here. At CrowdStrike, we raised$1.1 billion throughout the history of the company and through the IPO. Right. Couldn't have done this anywhere else. And you also have the benefit of single market where selling a piece of technology or physical good in Seattle is no different than selling it in Alabama. Right. It is the same process.
40:49That's not true anywhere else. You know, you go to Europe and selling in Germany is very different from selling in Italy or UK. You have language barriers, go to market barriers. And that's why many American companies struggle in Europe, frankly, because they try to think of it as United States of Europe. And it's not. You've got to take it a country-by-country approach. There's literally crazy rules in Switzerland for my wealth management company, and it's totally different to sell and detect there. And yeah, it's a mini-bill. Totally, totally. Yeah, the fourth I is influence. We have enormous influence around the world, whether it's the power of the U.S.
41:20dollar, whether it's U.S. military, our alliance framework, unmatched anywhere in the world, right? And the fifth is really our ideas, our constitution, our government framework, despite the challenges that we have in our political system, the polarization, everything else. I think the fact that we can do dissent and civil disagreement in this country without killing each other, hopefully, and it's not just acceptable, but expected, is what makes this battle of ideas work ultimately and allows us to reinvent ourselves even when we go through really, really tough periods in our country's history, which, you know, we're in a tough period today, no question about it.
41:55But it's not the Vietnam War. It's not the Civil War. It's not even the Revolutionary War where Benjamin Franklin was fighting against his own son that was on the side of the loyalists, right? We've been through much, much worse in this country. And every single time, because of our system, we've been able to reinvent ourselves, come out ahead. And the other systems, the dictatorial systems, in the short term, they have an advantage because you've got one guy that can make all the decisions. You don't have to win over the population. You don't have to win over the opposition. But eventually, even if they somehow get lucky and that person is really, really smart, eventually they die.
42:27They pass it off usually to their kids in a monarchy type system or to someone else that the party picks in a communist style system. And you eventually run out of talent because the person that wins is not the one that has the best ideas, but the one that can manage the bureaucracy the best, like Xi Jinping. And, you know, I think Xi Jinping has been the best thing that's ever happened to America because he has effectively destroyed the Chinese economy. He has clamped down on innovation. Through his diplomatic efforts, through this wolf warrior diplomacy, alienated so many countries around the world.
43:02I joke that if he's not a CIA agent, we should put him on the payroll because, my God, he's been fantastic to wake us up to the threat of China and everyone else. He really has hurt their tech sector and their innovation economy in a way that's a huge advantage to us. So we wish we went over immigration, innovation, investment, influence, and ideas. I want to do a few quick questions about each of these before we finish. On immigration, what should we be doing with the smart Chinese students that come here to study? Obviously, some of them are spies. Obviously, some of them are geniuses. What should we be doing with this?
43:32Well, first of all, we need to, you know, fix our asylum program, like having thousands of people just crossing the border, applying for asylum and not being able to vet them, not being able to figure out who is the best, who do we really want is just crazy, right? We want to pick the best people from China, from Russia, from Iran, from all these different places, because not only does it benefit us, but it weakens them, right? It's a brain drain on them. But you want to be selective. You want to obviously vet them to make sure that they're not tied to the intelligence services. You want to figure out who are the best science PhDs and master's students and engineers that we need to drive the innovation in our economy.
44:10And we want to make sure to do this really from anywhere in the world, right, where you have the best talent. So merit-based immigration program is absolutely key. Yeah, my view is you can't tell for sure if some of them are spies, but bringing them into our innovation economy and just having a bureau that watches some of them, but just letting them be here, to me, is just so much better because it's just such an advantage to have more talent here. And most of them are probably not spies. And even if they are, it's like, what are they going to do? There's already so many people in America reporting back.
44:38That's my high level. Yeah. You know, we're decent at counterintelligence. We can always be better. But at the end of the day, majority of them are just looking for a better life for themselves. for their kids. And we want to make sure that they come here so that they can help grow this country. One other area you noted of great strategic importance is chip manufacturing. You talk about preventing China from achieving chip breakout. Have we done a good job of this? I think we passed a bunch of rules recently to stop them from accessing certain things there. Like, are we doing what we need to be doing?
45:07It's really mixed bag and we're too slow on this. So there are two types of chips, broadly speaking. There are more detailed details behind it, but But basically, you can break them into advanced chips, chips below basically 18 nanometers or so, and what I call foundational chips, everything that's basically above, right? And we focus on curtailing their ability, although not entirely stopping yet, in producing advanced chips because these are the chips you need for AI, for your iPhones, for your laptops, and for some of the advanced targeting and missiles and other weapon systems. Really important work.
45:44We've done it in a very haphazard way. It's been kind of half measure because we said equipment, and by the way, all of the equipment that you need to manufacture these chips, whether it's foundational or advanced, is basically built in three places. It's built in America, it's built in Netherlands, the company SML that many have heard about, and in Japan. And you need all of these companies. A lot of people focus just on SML. You can't build chips just with SML equipment. You need actually in deposition, you need all kinds of capabilities that is manufactured both here and in Japan as well. And we basically inserted controls where we said to these companies, if your equipment is only used, and that's the key thing, only used to manufacture chips 18 nanometers and below, you can no longer sell it to China.
46:26You can no longer maintain it, which is another key component. Even if they bought it, maintaining it is really critical because there's constant updates and so forth that happens there. But we said, but if there's dual use equipment, one that can be used to produce 22 nanometer chip, and you can also use it to produce five nanometer chip, that's fine, which is just absolutely insane. That's crazy. So then they all start doing dual use and then they all give it to China. And this is what's happening is that the Chinese have been stockpiling all the equipment that they can buy for the last three years.
46:55And there's been the scandal, if you pay close attention to this, that China was able to, and particularly Huawei, was able to manufacture a seven nanometer chip. And everyone's shocked and saying, oh my God, our export controls aren't working. They're able to do this. Well, how did they do this? They didn't use the EUV extreme ultraviolet equipment from ASML to make it because that's equipment that's only used to manufacture chips below basically 7 nanometers. But they used the previous generation called DUV, deep ultraviolet, also manufactured by ASML, that you can use to manufacture 22 nanometer chips.
47:31But also, and we knew this, can be used to manufacture 7 nanometers because guess what? TSMC in Taiwan in 2019 showed a process that could manufacture a 7 nanometer chip without DUV equipment. So we knew in 2019 it was possible. So why did you think that in 2023 the Chinese would not be able to figure it out? Of course they did. And by the way, most people believe in the sector that 5 nanometer chips would be possible without equipment as well. So we're not actually constraining them on advanced as much as we need to. It's insane. And it's a huge problem. But on the foundational chips, it's even worse because the Chinese have basically said, okay, on advanced, we won't be able to manufacture as much as we need to.
48:10That's a huge problem. We'll try to solve it down the road. But we're going to corner the vast majority of the chips that are not advanced because everything around us, every piece of electronic that we have contains advanced chips. Even those AI servers and data centers that have the NVIDIA GPUs in them, guess what? They need power and they need networking, they need screen, keyboard, etc. All the chips that are driving all of this are not advanced chips. They're foundational chips. Even if you look at your iPhone, there's about 150, 160 chips in that iPhone. Only three of them are advanced. Your processor, your memory, and the baseband from Qualcomm that talks to the cell tower.
48:46Everything else, GPS, screen, power management, battery, accelerometer, so forth, all of that is foundational chips. And China, as we speak, is trying to corner that market with equipment. We're selling them and allowing our companies to sell to them. And they're subsidizing it to drive everyone else out of business to the point where TSMC now, that manufactures both advanced and foundational chips, is considering getting out of the foundational chips business entirely. because the U.S. government is creating this nice monopoly for them in advance, which is more lucrative from a margin perspective.
49:18And foundational chips are going to be competing with subsidized chips from China. That's not a great business, right? So they're going to own the vast majority of the chips. It's a keen, Joe, to basically saying to China, you know what, we're going to stop you from being able to produce advanced materials like carbon fiber that you can use and manufacture boring dreamliners and all kinds of other things. But you know what? we'll let you quarter the entire world market on steel aluminum. How would that sound? Because you can't build anything without steel aluminum. Even the Boeing Dreamliner, 20 to 30 % of it is steel aluminum, right?
49:51And that is the foundational chips that we're letting China dominate. Seems like we need to be writing some better policy here. I hope you're talking to people in DC about this, Demetrius. I am, I am. This has been driving me nuts that we need to make sure our policies are right in the book. needs to make sure that China cannot produce any chips at any node level. And as long as they can't produce chips, they'll be dependent on us. They'll be dependent on Taiwan. And this is a deterrent factor because if they go to war, they'll know that we'll be able to strangle their economy with a chips moratorium, not to mention other things.
50:21And by the way, they need those chips to produce weapons as well. So their ability to wage war is going to be severely diminished. Thank you for being in DC fighting these battles. These are obviously really important. You know, just to end on optimism here, a couple of things. You're immersed in the world of technology and policy. What are some of the most exciting breakthroughs that could give the U.S. advantages over China for decades to come? Or what gives you the most hope right now for the future? Well, so I talk about the key to winning this Cold War is really winning the technological race first and foremost.
50:50Yes, you need to deter the invasion of Taiwan, make sure they never take it for just strategic reasons. But in the broader sense, it is really making sure that our economy wins over China's, right? And we're right now 25 % larger. There's a slowing down. If the trends continue, they'll never catch up with us. But if they manage to win the race in those four critical technologies, they might be able to. And those four critical technologies are AI and autonomy. I don't have to tell you about the importance of that. Second one that's closely related is biotech and synthetic biology. And not just in the area of medical sciences that people think about, but in the area of bioenergetics, by manufacturing, be able to produce new materials, new energy sources in the lab.
51:29I think a lot of that innovation will be driven by AI, and it's very, very exciting. Third one is space. You know this area as well. Places like SpaceX and others that have revolutionized Spacelift, democratized the cost of Spacelift, and the creation of these new modular satellites that you can put in low-Earth orbit at a small price is helping us so much in resiliency, in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, and communication, and navigation. really game changer, not just in our military, but I think in a commercial sphere as well. And the fourth one is green energy. As the economies are transitioning to EVs, to batteries, wind, solar, nuclear, we need to make sure that we're dominating in that energy sector as well as we have.
52:14The nuclear one's important to me. I think China's doing really well there and we've been a little slow, but overall, we'll see. Well, so on those three, we're winning, on those four technologies, we're winning the first three, we're losing badly in energy across the board, right? They're dominating batteries. They're now dominating AVs. They're dominating wind and solar and nuclear. And we're far behind. We don't need to be. They're in part ahead because they've stolen so much IP. They've subsidized so much of their industry. They're undercutting us in price. And we need to correct for that imbalance with trade tariffs on Chinese goods to allow our industries to compete.
52:46I've talked to so many startups. I know you guys at AVC have as well in a lot of these areas, in batteries and nuclear, et cetera. They have incredible innovation, much better than what exists in China, but they can't compete against something that's massively subsidized by their government. So you need to sanction those companies in China that have benefited from stolen IP, use trade barriers to prevent them from dumping their products on our economies, and allowing our own innovation to come forward and prosper. I love it. Well, it's true, we're working on all four of these areas. You probably saw Resilience Bio, the biggest new advanced bio manufacturer pushing here, places in the US and allies.
53:21obviously Elon, thanks to him, we're in space. Otherwise, I don't think we would be. And yeah, the nuclear thing's tough. But I think our government's coming around finally on both parties. So it does sound like we're optimistic on this. Final question, what should our smartest young entrepreneurs and policymakers be focusing on? What are people not paying enough attention to in order to help us with these fights? Well, one thing that I think is an advantage to us is that we don't have a top-down state-controlled economy. So ultimately, I think our entrepreneurs should not be listening to what the U.S.
53:51government wants. They should be listening to the market and to their customers. And that's how you ultimately build the best solutions and make sure you don't have stagnation or waste in our economy. So be cognizant, you know, who you're selling to and what they really want. And also don't forget to engage in D.C. I know that D.C. is kind of a dirty word for many in the valley and elsewhere. But the reality is that geopolitics is everywhere. You may not care about geopolitics, but geopolitics certainly cares about you. and whether you're in areas where you're competing against China or whether Chinese are trying to steal your intellectual property, you probably want to figure out how the U.S.
54:26government could help you in trade barriers and sanctions and law enforcement support to prevent this unfair competition that Chinese are engaged in. Well, that's wise advice, Dimitri. Thanks for taking the time to join us. Thanks so much for having me.
From the publisher
He predicted Vladimir Putin would attack Ukraine months before it happened. Now he believes similar signals foreshadow China invading Taiwan. What similarities does he see? When and how would a Chinese incursion unfold? And what can the U.S. do to deter this conflict?This week, we're joined by Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of web security giant CrowdStrike, who departed the firm several years ago to focus on the intersection of technology, national security, and global competition as the Chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator. He's the author of an important new book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century."
We begin with Dmitri's entrepreneurial journey, from building a multi-billion dollar cyber security firm to lessons learned on the front lines of Chinese and Russian cyber attacks. Next, we discuss Dmitri's new book, his Cold War II thesis, and the comparative strengths and weaknesses between China and the U.S. He lays out Putin's rationale for attacking Ukraine and the similarities he sees with Xi Jinping and Taiwan — and even predicts the date China might invade! Finally, he explains the four key technologies where the U.S. must remain ahead of China to prevent a Cold War from turning hot.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com




