In short
Podcast Episode Summary: Ben Felix - Investing is Simple, So Why Is Everyone Getting it Wrong?
Podcast Title: Making Money Episode Title: Ben Felix: Investing is Simple, So Why Is Everyone Getting it Wrong? Hosts: Damien Jordan & Timeyin Akerele Guest: Ben Felix, Chief Investment Officer at PWL Capital
Overview
In this episode of the "Making Money" podcast, hosts Damien Jordan and Timeyin Akerele engage in an insightful discussion with Ben Felix, a renowned personal finance expert and the Chief Investment Officer at PWL Capital. The conversation covers various topics related to investing, human behavior in finance, and personal reflections following Ben's cancer diagnosis.
Key Topics Discussed
- The Simplicity of Investing
- Investment Basics: Ben emphasizes that investing doesn't have to be complicated and outlines key principles for effective investing.
- Use low-cost index funds.
- Ensure global diversification.
- Determine a suitable asset allocation.
- Common Investing Pitfalls
- Human Behavior: The hosts and Ben discuss how human psychology often leads to poor investment decisions, drawing attention to common behavioral biases that investors face, including:
- Overconfidence in stock trading.
- Attention-grabbing news leading to irrational decisions.
- Home Bias in Investing
- Home Country Bias: Ben explains the concept of home bias, where investors tend to favor stocks from their own country.
- This bias might not be optimal, especially for investors in smaller markets.
- He references research suggesting that a modest home country bias can be reasonable but cautions against excessive bias.
- Future Returns and the 4% Rule
- Lower Expected Returns: Ben suggests that investors should temper their expectations for future returns, particularly in the US market, due to high valuations.
- 4% Withdrawal Rule: He critiques the traditional 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, advocating for a more conservative approach of about 2.5-3% based on current economic conditions.
- Personal Reflections on Health and Wealth
- Cancer Diagnosis: Ben shares his recent cancer diagnosis and how it has shifted his perspective on life and finances.
- He discusses the importance of enjoying life and being present, urging listeners to prioritize experiences over financial worries.
- Financial Wisdom and Advice
- Ben provides practical advice for listeners:
- Invest in low-cost index funds.
- Maintain a disciplined approach to investing.
- Understand the importance of saving while enjoying life.
Key Takeaways
- Investing is Accessible: Anyone can learn to manage their investments effectively by focusing on the fundamentals.
- Behavioral Awareness: Recognizing and addressing psychological biases can vastly improve investment decisions.
- Life is Short: Personal health impacts financial planning; enjoying life is crucial.
- Continuous Learning: Financial literacy is a journey; engaging with resources and experts can provide invaluable insights.
References
- Research Papers Mentioned:
- *Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice* by Anarkulova, Cederburg, and O'Doherty.
- *Finding and Funding a Good Life* by Ben Felix.
Additional Resources
- Ben Felix's YouTube Channel: [Ben Felix - Rational Reminder Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/c/BenFelixCSIRational)
- Rational Reminder Podcast: [Rational Reminder Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/c/RATIONALREMINDER)
Sponsors
- The British and International Franchise Exhibition
- TaxZap
- Vanta
- Odoo
Contact Info For questions or feedback regarding the show, contact: makingmoney@getmost.co.uk
---
This episode provides valuable insights into the world of investing and personal finance, emphasizing the importance of a sound strategy while also highlighting the human elements that can affect our financial journeys.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOBen's Journey from Basketball to Finance
1:37 to 4:59
Ben Felix discusses his unexpected path from aspiring basketball player to finance professional.
“But I just want to introduce you briefly, if that's okay, for the people at home that might not know your channel.”
The Impact of Research on Financial Thinking
4:59 to 7:20
Explore how research influences financial thinking and Ben's perspective on portfolio management.
“Even at that age, you were like, I want to be testing myself to that level.”
Home Country Bias in Investment
7:20 to 11:43
Delve into the concept of home country bias and its implications for investment strategies.
“Let me give you one then that challenged my way of thinking, because I think that would help explore beyond the status quo and this idea of a domestic home bias, quite a large home bias.”
Arguments for Domestic Investment
11:43 to 14:01
Ben Felix presents various justifications for maintaining a domestic investment focus.
“historically, which is what that paper does, they find the roughly one third.”
Understanding Home Country Bias
14:01 to 15:00
Learn the implications of home country bias in investment strategies.
“between 10 % and 30 % is a good home country bias empirically.”
Labor Income and Domestic Markets
15:40 to 17:50
Discuss the correlation between labor income and home country investment.
“You know, he said to us, essentially, that a UK investor is exposed to the UK market through their labor.”
Valuations and Expected Returns
17:51 to 20:40
Examine why current market valuations suggest lower future returns.
“Well, it really just comes down to valuations, which I believe is what Elroy would have been talking about as well.”
Risks of Home Country Bias
20:41 to 23:13
Understand the risks associated with excessive home country bias in portfolios.
“One of the results of that is that US stock returns have been really high.”
The 2.7% Rule vs. The 4% Rule
23:14 to 26:00
Compare the sustainability of the 2.7% withdrawal rate against the traditional 4%.
“Fundamentals have continued to get better.”
Variable Spending in Retirement
26:01 to 27:51
Learn about the importance of flexible spending plans during retirement.
“expectancies, not even moderating for currently lower expected returns.”
Show all 30 chapters
Rational Investing Challenges
29:12 to 31:02
Understand the cognitive biases that complicate rational decision-making in investing.
“There's also a QR code on screen for you.”
Investing in Health vs. Wealth
31:02 to 32:48
Explore the parallels between investing in financial markets and maintaining health.
“Are there any other areas in life or fields where you believe it's as challenging, it's as about the human?”
Psychology of Consistency in Investing
32:48 to 34:28
Learn how consistent habits in fitness can reflect in investing behavior.
“Short-term thinking is easy and often pleasurable, but it leads to these incremental degradations that don't show up until they show up all at once slowly.”
The Wealthy Barber Lessons
34:28 to 35:46
Discover empowering lessons from a famous Canadian financial book on investing.
“But one of the first lessons in the book is you can do this.”
Wealth Management Services Explained
35:46 to 37:18
Understand the role of financial advisors in managing wealth and providing peace of mind.
“And is that under the pretense that you could beat the market?”
Emotional Aspects of Financial Decisions
37:18 to 39:28
Find out how emotional and social factors influence financial decision-making.
“They know that we're giving them good advice and they don't have to think about it.”
Diminishing Returns of Wealth
39:28 to 42:00
Examine the relationship between wealth and happiness and when it plateaus.
“a point where more money just stops making you happy?”
Holistic Retirement Planning
42:00 to 43:35
Explore how to shape retirement planning by reflecting on what a good life means to clients.
“a high amount of wealth or a high amount of income.”
Diminishing Returns and Happiness
43:35 to 45:50
Discuss the concept of diminishing returns in happiness related to wealth and major purchases.
“I don't even like caviar, but whatever, expensive stuff.”
Adapting to Life Changes
45:50 to 48:28
Learn about how life circumstances and individual values shift over time, affecting decisions.
“Yeah, they sometimes get it, but sometimes they're pretty persistent.”
Income Satiation Points
48:28 to 50:52
Understand how happiness levels plateau with increased income and the importance of mindful spending.
“clients because we focus on all this stuff.”
Consumption Smoothing and Financial Planning
50:52 to 52:43
Examine the concept of consumption smoothing and its implications for financial planning.
“But I also think there's the idea, for example, that everybody should save 10 % of their income no matter what always.”
The Value of Leisure and Health
52:43 to 55:46
Reflect on how much people value leisure activities and their impacts on health and finances.
“There's a couple more in this section that are, I think are really interesting questions.”
Personal Reflections on Mortality
55:46 to 56:00
Discuss the impact of personal health experiences on financial perspectives and life priorities.
Personal Cancer Journey and Its Impact
56:00 to 1:02:40
Listen to a personal account of surviving testicular cancer and how it shaped life perspectives.
“My mom had breast cancer when I was young and was given a very, very low probability of survival.”
Investing Insights and Simplified Strategies
1:02:40 to 1:10:01
Learn about straightforward investment strategies and the importance of discipline in finance.
“For me, it was, uh, I would check periodically.”
Understanding Investment Mistakes
1:10:01 to 1:11:06
Learn why overconfidence can lead to poor investment choices.
“They're probably overconfident and doing stuff like, I don't know, trading options or trying to trade stocks and all that kind of stuff.”
Connecting with Audience Insights
1:11:07 to 1:11:46
Discover the importance of understanding audience perceptions of investment.
“and then it's just like NVIDIA and just a lot of tech stocks.”
The Value of Genuine Conversations
1:11:47 to 1:12:50
Explore how personal connections enhance understanding of investment.
Reflections on Ben Felix's Approach
1:12:51 to 1:13:35
Hear reflections on Ben Felix's insights and personal qualities.
“But I was like, I'm loving this section.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01If you've woken up in January thinking you want to do something entrepreneurial with your life this year then the British International Franchise Exhibition is happening at the end of this month and it's completely free to attend. Franchises are a really interesting business model. On one side of the work spectrum you have being an employee and on the other you have starting your own business and then franchising sits somewhere in the middle. You're buying into a brand and a proven business model. But it comes at a cost of course and you've got to see if the numbers stack up or if it's right for you.
0:29One way you can do that is by attending this event so you can speak directly with franchises and other professional advisors in the area like finance and law. The British International Franchise Exhibition is at the Olympia in London on January 30th and 31st. They run two events a year and the next one isn't until October. So if you want a free ticket, I've left a link in the description so you can go along. Even if you don't think you have the financial mind or the mathematical mind to manage your investments and to make good financial decisions, you can do it. Ben Felix is your favourite finance YouTuber's favourite finance YouTuber.
1:01Maybe we should expect returns that are quite a bit lower from the US market specifically. going forward. Now, the problem with this is... Another forecasting tool that you've kind of been a bit critical of is the 4 % rule. You know, the idea, for example, that everybody should save 10 % of their income no matter what always. I think that's problematic. So that's the perpetual trade-off. I know you were diagnosed with cancer earlier this year. Yeah. How has that shaped your view on your finances, your life, the things that matter? It forces you to be like, okay, I might not be here in a year. I mean, I know who you are.
1:35T does. He subscribed today, as he said. But I just want to introduce you briefly, if that's okay, for the people at home that might not know your channel. So you're Ben Felix, your Portfolio Manager and Chief Investment Officer at PWL Capital. But you're known on the internet because of your YouTube channel and your podcast. I think, you know, for me personally, I watch your content. as a finance creator myself i don't watch many finance creators but i really enjoy your content and i think that's because of the academic rigor you bring to the space the research you don't mind standing there and challenging um you're quite contrarian like your views on dividends have rattled more than a few people and you keep going back to poke that bear don't you um but i think you're unique in that in that sense of the papers that you cite and the research that you bring so first of all thank you for that it's really interesting content he says this to all the finance creators by the way just just so you know no i'm joking now damio does talk about you i know he's a big fan but i want to ask the most important question i hear you're six foot 11 and you're just like me you're a basketball player is that correct uh i am a basketball player yeah i'm i'm i was listed at 6 11 i'm like six foot nine and three quarters without shoes on so you can interpret that how you want that's how we do it in basketball so you're pretty short then right I mean, I'm 6 '3", but you would make me look tiny.
2:55I mean, everyone makes you look tiny, little fella. I mean, it lists you as a C, as your position. Is that right? Center. Center. Center, yeah. So you're dunking on people. Not so much anymore, but there was a time. You also rode, right? I did row, yeah. I rode for a few years in high school. I was pretty good at rowing, but I decided to focus on basketball. My dad actually rode for Canada when I was younger. I rode at Durham University um so I know I knew a bit uh enjoyed it but probably caught me at the wrong point in my life in the sense of you're always out on the water at 6 a.m so I'd often be coming straight from the bar with a gin and tonic in my hand into the boat just off you go it was uh that sounds that sounds awful yeah it was you'd often be sick and people like look how hard he's working he's been sick that's what you want rowing a 2k in like under eight minutes puke off the side of the boat and people would be like, yeah, that's the kind of training we need.
3:49But it was just the hangover. Before we get into the serious finance topics, I'd love to know kind of the shift from pretty good basketball into the finance world. How did that happen? By mistake, really. I never planned on going into finance. I studied mechanical engineering when I was playing basketball. I went to school in the US, in Boston at Northeastern University, did a degree in engineering. And then, uh, I was able to go back to Canada to play a little bit more basketball, was hoping to be a professional player, but that never, that never worked out. I had some, had some injuries, had some disagreements with my coach and just decided to stop, to stop playing.
4:26But when I came back to Canada to play, I had to pick a university program, a master's program. And I didn't really want to do a master's in engineering. I didn't think I'd be, uh, well-suited to work as an engineer. And I figured if I did a master's in engineering, and that's kind of what I would end up doing. So I did an MBA, figured that would open lots of other doors and pick the finance concentration because that was supposed to be the hardest one, which is also how I picked engineering in the first place. Yeah, so that was it. And then that led me to getting a job in finance and that's how it all happened.
4:58So you picked routes based on them being the hardest? Academically, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, but you enjoyed that challenge. Even at that age, you were like, I want to be testing myself to that level. Yeah, that's kind of how I thought about it. I always figured that doing a hard degree would give you lots of optionality, even if you didn't end up working in that field. I wish I had the kind of foresight at that age. And you did accounting and finance. I did finance, but like I said, I just admitted to the fact I was drinking gin and tonic at 5 a.m. before getting into a boat, right? So I wasn't quite as future focused.
5:34No, no, I mean, not similar paths really. and the personal finance stuff i do now i didn't learn much of that at all through my finance degree that was more traditional finance marketing all that kind of stuff okay perfect so i want to start with a serious question well we want to go into the serious questions now you said in the briefing chat there's and i've heard you say as well before that there's no piece of research really that you've ever read that's changed the way you think too drastically because that's not the way it works but some of the stuff that you've put out has changed the way i think or at least challenged it.
6:07And I just wanted to know, is there any one paper or bit of research that you've studied that's challenged you most or the way that you think about finance? Challenge me most. I mean, the one paper and podcast guest that I think challenged the way that I think and a lot of people think about portfolio management and long-term investing is Scott Cederberg, his paper on the relative risk of stocks and bonds for long-term investors. That was one that was like, okay, there's more to think about than things like maximizing the Sharpe ratio, which is really a short-term or single-period return measure.
6:50When you start thinking about different things like what's the most sustainable way to fund long-term spending, bonds, nominal bonds, like bonds that are not indexed to inflation, which is most bonds, start to become pretty risky for long-term investors and stocks actually start to become a little bit safer. So that was one where I think it was counterintuitive and changed the way that I thought about some things. But yeah, other ones that really challenged the way that I think, I don't know. That's a tough... Let me give you one then that challenged my way of thinking, because I think that would help explore beyond the status quo and this idea of a domestic home bias, quite a large home bias.
7:33So just to explain is the idea that you have an exposure to the place that you're from, right? In the UK, so as a global component, the UK would make up maybe 4 % of total global markets. but this paper suggested that you may have as much as 33%. I know that you, for your clients, being a Canadian, have a domestic bias. Is that correct? I think I remember the video correctly. Yeah. So that's the same paper, actually. That's a different finding from that paper, but that's the same paper that I was referring to about the asset allocation for long-term investors and how that differs from short-term.
8:09But yeah, one of the findings in the paper is that some level of home country bias probably does make sense. We do. We're similar roughly in Canada. We're about 3 % of the global market. And we, at my firm, but not just us, you look around the market, BlackRock has an asset allocation suite of products, which are ETFs that you can buy one ETF, and it gives you a globally diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds if you so choose. They have different asset allocations. They do a pretty significant home country bias to Canada. Vanguard has a similar suite of products. Life strategy funds are there.
8:46A similar idea, yeah. They don't shift the allocation over time. They're constant allocation funds. So you buy like a 60-40 portfolio and that's what you get forever. Anyway, so they all do a pretty significant home country bias. Vanguard actually has research showing why they've done it that way. And that research was based on a minimum volatility analysis, which is very time period specific. I don't love that justification, but that's one of the reasons they did it. Dimensional Fund Advisors, which are the products that we use, they also in their asset allocation funds build in a similar home country bias.
9:21So yeah, we do it and it's like around a third of portfolios. So you asked about challenging my views. That paper did not challenge my views because I read it and I was like, great, it says we should be doing exactly what we're doing. So I asked Vanguard UK why the Life Strategy Funds had a UK lean, especially over say like the last period where there's been american dominance and a pretty lackluster uk performance and their argument was at the time we designed those funds people in the uk wanted a uk lien so if you come out of like the 2000 the early 2000s period of pre-2008 the uk market was strong so people bought the uk market they kind of chased the performance right and they thought that if they offered a product that didn't have that it wouldn't be as popular there wasn't really a discussion around the fact that it's beneficial to have that so can can you help us understand why it might be beneficial to have a lean to a domestic market, especially outside of the US.
10:16Yeah. I know you talked to Elroy Dimson about this, and he disagrees with my position. He's not one of the people in the world that I would want to disagree with on something, but I guess here we are. The justifications that I would give are, at least from a Canadian perspective, it is more cost and tax efficient for a Canadian to own Canadian stocks than to own international stocks. That's one piece. If you think about the average investor should own the world market portfolio in market capitalization weights, which would put a Canadian at 3 % of Canadian equity for the equity portion of their portfolio.
10:54Then you think about what are the reasons that would shift you from that position. If we say, okay, for the average investor, you own 3 % in Canada, but then we say, okay, you're in Canada and it's actually a lot cheaper to buy a Canadian ETF, a Canadian equity ETF, and it's a little bit more tax efficient. So, okay, maybe a Canadian shifts a little bit away from 3 % because they're different from the average world investor in that one way. And then you start looking at other stuff like local consumption hedging, like the cost of buying stuff in Canada and how that relates to equity performance in that country.
11:26I think that's what the beyond the status quo paper that you mentioned, that's probably what they found in there. That's probably the reason is that there's a relationship between domestic equity returns and domestic consumption, which leads to such a high home country bias. That's a somewhat empirical justification. It's like when you look at what has been optimal around the world historically, which is what that paper does, they find the roughly one third. It's really like between, I can't remember, maybe like 10 % and 30 % is sort of optimal. It's not a whole lot different within that range, but lower starts to look worse and higher starts to look worse.
12:01Uh, so there's that one. And then Vanguard had the one that I mentioned where they looked at the, what gives you the least amount of volatility for a given level of expected return. And they found about 30 % in Canada historically has given you that portfolio, which is, I don't, I don't love that one because it's very time period specific. Um, I did extend their analysis back to 1900, actually using the Dimson, Dimson, Mars Staunton data set and found a similar thing going back to 1900 until 2024, I think the optimal allocation to Canada for a Canadian investor was about 30%. And again, that's very time period specific.
12:38So I don't love that one. The other, so consumption hedging, cost and tax efficiency, some level of empirical support. And then one that I think is really interesting that it probably doesn't get thought about enough, but Eugene Fama brought it up when he was on the Rational Reminder on my podcast as a reason for home country bias, which is protection from expropriation in times of geopolitical conflict. When he said that, I was like, whoa, I never really thought about that. But he basically said that in bad times, in times of conflict, in times of war, foreign investors don't get treated very well.
13:20And so it doesn't really show up in the data, like in the Dimson-Marshton data, they give you the historical return series of all the different countries, but that doesn't necessarily reflect stuff completely. Like if you were a foreign investor in Russia recently, you lost your investments. Russian stocks didn't go to zero, but for a foreign investor, they did. And so little bits and pieces of that happened over time, but you will not get that issue in your domestic stock market. So that's another hard to measure, hard to quantify reason that domestic stocks may be a little bit safer for somebody in that country.
13:59I think those are probably the big reasons. But again, it's like even beyond the status quo paper, they find somewhere between 10 % and 30 % is a good home country bias empirically. So if someone said, I don't want to have a home country bias, I don't think that that's going to be super detrimental. If someone said, I want to have a 70 % or 80 % home country bias for a small market like Canada or the UK, that's probably going to be detrimental. But if you're within that range of 10 to 30%, I personally don't think that that's problematic. And I think that there are reasonably good arguments that it's beneficial.
14:36So T, tell me the riskiest thing you've ever done. Mate, the cameras are rolling. I can't do that. You're trying to get me cancelled. I mean, most of my risky things were probably in my teenage years. But one thing I could say about finance risks, definitely invested in stocks with zero research, just because my friend told me to, his research was, trust me, it didn't go well. Wow. So clearly risk affects you in both your personal and business life. And that's why we're really happy today to be partnering with Vanta. They automate a lot of risk processes and help you see the risks in a centralized platform so you know what really needs your attention.
15:09Besides risk, the main thing Vanta does is automate compliance with security protocols that you need if you want to do business with larger companies or grow internationally. This is stuff like GDPR, HIPAA, ISO 27001 and SOC2. The beauty of Vantra is they make it easy to prove you're compliant with these standards, saving up to 90 % of the time it takes and on average half a million dollars. You can get started at vantra.com forward slash making money. There's a link in the description and a QR code on screen for you. So you mentioned Elroy and you got ahead of the pushback there, but I just want to, You know, he said to us, essentially, that a UK investor is exposed to the UK market through their labor.
15:50They work in that market. And the argument is you go and diversify away from the economy that you operate in. What would you say to that? So, you know what? I was going to – I didn't pull it up. I was going to look at beyond the status quo because they do actually look at the correlation between your labor income and your domestic stock market in that paper to address that exact criticism or concern. And they do still find a home country bias. I just don't remember how it varied based on labor income. Let me just look real quick if you guys don't mind. Yeah, take it. Okay, so it's in table seven here.
16:39yeah, their income domestic correlation. Yeah, here we go. So they've got optimal asset class weights. This is table seven of the beyond the status quo paper on page 49 for anyone that wants to go and check it out. I don't know how nerdy your listeners are. Some of them are pretty nerdy, definitely. Okay. Okay. Yeah. So panel L of table seven in this paper, they look at income domestic stock correlations between 0.1 and 0.5. And I'd have to go check the other part of the paper, but I'm pretty sure that there was an academic reference for those labor income correlations. And at a labor correlation of 0.1, they still find the optimal domestic allocation to be 30%, which is a little bit lower than the base case, which has just the income and stock market is uncorrelated.
17:30And then when you go all the way up to the higher end of the range of an income domestic stock correlation of 0.5, the optimal home country allocation is 18%. So it falls if you assume that there's a high correlation, but not by that much. Anyway. Yeah. And in a market like the UK or Canada, where they operate with massive international companies, you might be exposed more to international events than you are to domestic ones you might maybe if you're working in a footsie 250 business i i don't know you know it's if you're working at astrazeneca it's a global player right more than it is yeah yeah so i can i can see that counter we'll have to get our way back on and continue this this sparring match uh he he said as well um similar to you he's going to agree to you with you this time so this is good news for you uh around expected returns he expects lower returns going forwards could you just kind share with us in the audience why you believe that that's the case over the next century, 10 years, 20 years, or whatever period you measure that over?
18:31Well, it really just comes down to valuations, which I believe is what Elroy would have been talking about as well. I read all of his stuff. He's someone that I'd love to get on our podcast. They have an old paper. I believe it's called the World Equity Risk Premium, a Smaller Puzzle or something like that. It's an older paper, but there's this idea in finance that stock returns have been too high. It's called the equity premium puzzle. They've been higher than they should be based on any economic model. And that's usually based on US data. So they had this paper from a while ago where they look at international markets and they show that the equity risk premium has actually been smaller when you look around the world.
19:09So the US is basically an outlier. But one of the things they do in that paper is they decompose, and they do this in their yearbook too, I believe, they decompose the historical sources of returns from different markets. And they talk about how there are repeatable and non-repeatable sources of returns and increases in equity valuations over a period of time, they talk about as being non-repeatable. Because if returns have been what they have been in the US market, for example, because of valuations have expanded, because you're paying more for every dollar of earnings that you buy, of expected future earnings that you buy, that portion of the return, you would only expect it to repeat if you expect valuations to continue to expand, if you expect to continue paying more and more for each dollar of company earnings that you're buying, which historically, when valuations have been high, they have tended to either level out or come down.
20:03So they either tend to have low returns for a long period of time, or you have a market correction where valuations come down. Valuations don't typically continue expanding forever and ever. And I mean, at some level, of course that can't happen. You're not going to pay an infinitely large amount for every dollar of company earnings. It just wouldn't make any economic sense. And so when you look around right now, US stock market valuations are quite high relative to history. And so we're in this period where the US market has done exceptionally well. Their economic fundamentals have been very good.
20:38And they've got the largest, most successful companies in the world that have continued to generate significant profits and all that's great and has been happening. One of the results of that is that US stock returns have been really high. And part of the reason is that US stock valuations have expanded on the expectation that this incredible economic performance is going to continue in perpetuity. And again, when we look through history, when valuations have been as high as they are now, future returns have tended to be lower. And so I think there are two cautions. One, at the very least, I don't think it makes sense to look at recent US stock returns and extrapolate that into the future.
21:19They've just been high because fundamentals have improved, which is a repeatable portion of the realized return, but also because valuations have expanded, which is not repeatable. So it doesn't make sense to look at US returns for the last 10 years or 20 years or whatever and say, yep, I expect that really high return to continue forever, which I think a lot of people actually do. And then the other side of that, or the other piece of that is beyond just not expecting the high returns of recent history to continue forever, it may make sense to temper your expectations. Maybe we should expect returns that are quite a bit lower from the US market specifically going forward because valuations right now are so high.
22:00So I agree with Elroy on this, as you mentioned. And I think it's something that probably doesn't get quite enough recognition or attention. And it does tie back to things like you should probably be diversified in markets outside the US. I don't know what it's like in the UK, but it's common, two things are common in Canada. It's common for people to have a home country bias to Canada, one that's even larger than I would say makes sense. I think the average home country allocation last time I looked from Vanguard had a paper on this was like 60%. That's too high. But the other thing is you see a lot of investors who just invest in the US stock market because they look at the ETFs that are out there and they say, wow, that S &P 500 ETF has done really well.
22:43I'm going to invest there. And that's what that becomes their whole portfolio. So I think that's a real risk for a lot of investors right now. They've invested solely in the US market because it has done so well in recent history. But I also think it's the market that has the lowest expected returns. Now, the problem with this is I've been saying the same thing for like five years. And I think Elroy has too, because I've read his stuff on this. Some people have been saying it for 15 years, you know? Yeah. And the market has just, you know, blowing away all expectations and valuations have continued to rise.
23:17Fundamentals have continued to get better. So it's a really tough thing. I'm not, and I guess that ties back to what am I actually saying. I'm not saying you should short the US market or not invest in the US market at all. I'm just saying it's probably reasonable to expect lower returns than we've had in recent history. And it probably makes sense to be diversified in the markets outside the US. Yeah. I think when it comes down, we're all doing this to hit a goal, right? To hit a financial goal of retirement, whatever, and you have a number. And what you're basically saying is be a bit more conservative in your forecasting because if you're sitting going well the market's done 16 on average in the last five years i'll just run that number out and there we go and another forecasting tool that you've kind of been a bit uh you're critical of is is the four percent rule or you know the use of that rule in terms of safe withdrawal rates i know that you said a withdrawal rate closer to two three percent is probably more realistic than a four percent so this is how much you can draw off a portfolio and it lasts for a typical retirement length.
24:21Two to three percent lower expected returns. I guess the question I want to put to you is how is anyone going to hit retirement if returns are lower and withdrawal rates need to be lower as well, meaning portfolio sizes need to be much bigger? Yeah, so I think there was kind of a, the end of the video where I suggested that the 2.7 % rule makes more sense than the 4 % rule. At the end of that video, I basically say that none of this really matters because fixed withdrawal rates are not very useful anyway. So I think if people are doing their financial planning, thinking that they need to spend a fixed amount from their portfolio every year, that's problematic.
25:01And yeah, people need to save a lot because expected returns are low. And because when you factor in markets outside of the US, 4 % has not been sustainable anyway. Then you add in longer life expectancies. For all these reasons, if you just take the original 4 % rule research that was done by Bill Bengen. So he did this research, I believe in 1994. And if you just take what he did and test it against markets outside the US, 4 % is not sustainable. And if you test it for longer life expectancies than what he looked at, 4 % is not sustainable, which is a problem, I think, because many people who are planning to retire early, which even if life expectancies weren't rising, it would be a problem.
25:43If it's based on a 30 to 40 year retirement period and someone's retiring for 50 to 60 years, maybe not so good. Yeah. So basically the point of my 2.7 % rule video was if you repeat Bill Bengen's analysis exactly the same way that he did it, but using international stocks, using longer life expectancies, not even moderating for currently lower expected returns. I didn't even include that in that analysis, you get a number that's much lower than 4%. So that's whatever, 2.7 % to 3 % or something like that. If you must use a fixed withdrawal rate, then yeah, I mean, that means you have to save more than you would under a 4 % rule.
26:25But I don't think that's the right way to do financial planning. Nobody would spend down their portfolio with a fixed withdrawal rate plan if things were not going as expected. If markets were worse than they were hoping that they would be when they retired. I don't think people would just keep their head down and keep spending, spending, spending until their portfolio was depleted. They would course correct. They would realize, hey, things aren't going as expected. I'm not going to go on that trip this year. I'm not going to buy my parents as lavish of a gift this year. I don't know, stuff like that.
26:56People can cut discretionary expenses to address changes in the world around them as they go through their retirement period. I think that's realistically how most people plan and live. I mean, we see that with our clients. People do make adjustments. When you factor that in, the total amount that people can spend throughout their retirements is a lot higher. In percentage terms over the long run, it's just not a fixed annual percentage or a fixed annual dollar amount of spending. So it's harder to think about and communicate proper retirement spending planning. The nice thing about the 4 % rule is that it's super easy.
Read the full transcript
27:33It's super easy to do the math on how much do I have to save for retirement if I can live off of the 4 % rule. It's harder to think about a variable spending plan and how much you can spend over your lifetime doing that. But I don't actually think that the amount you have to have saved is as insurmountable as it would seem if you say, oh, 2.7%, I need to have X amount saved. It's probably a lot lower than that when you factor in a proper variable spending plan. it's january mate do you want to know an interesting little factoid about this month go for it so not only is it the most depressing month of the year but this is where legal inquiries and divorce filings spike happy days get christmas out of the way get him get him gone make sure to see what he bought you for christmas before you suck him off so out your finances january the first see ya yeah yeah talking about speaking about sorting out finances it's also tax filing deadlines this month.
28:30Yay. If you're one of the 12 million people like me who needs to file a self-assessment by January 31st and you haven't got yours sorted yet, then check out Tax App. They make it really quick and easy. That's their whole point. You just enter your info, connect some accounts and can file in as little as 15 minutes. The beauty of Tax App is you can do it almost as quickly as you need. You don't need to have lengthy back and forth with an accountant. Plus it's much simpler than trying to navigate HMRC on your own. So if you've left it to the last minute, these guys can help you out. If you want to file your tax return the easy way, then we've left the link to TaxApp in the description.
29:02Prices start from£49. And if you use the code money10, you can get further 10 % off your first tax filing. That code is MONEY10. There's also a QR code on screen for you. We mentioned earlier, you've got a podcast, The Rational Reminder, which I think is an amazing name for a podcast. But why do you think people struggle so hard with being rational in investing? Well, yeah, I don't think that they should be rational necessarily. The genesis of that name was, you know, we don't think people should be perfectly rational all the time, but we think that they should understand what a rational person would do so that they can make informed decisions about the trade-offs.
29:44Investing is hard. Like there's so much uncertainty about future returns. You can never know if what you're doing is actually right. And even if it is, it can feel wrong or seem wrong for a long time. So I think that's really hard. And then so many of the biases that affect decision-making, the cognitive and behavioral biases that affect good decision-making, they just show up so easily and so prominently in financial markets. So I think that it's a playground for biases. And it makes decision-making when it comes to investing really hard. People aren't good at thinking long-term. They're not good at thinking about compounding.
30:30It's like our brains just don't comprehend exponential growth over time. That makes long-term decision-making hard. We are drawn to attention-grabbing stuff. So that might be a stock that's done well recently or a news headline about how bad things are going to get. And that'll be a very prominent thought in our minds when we're trying to make a decision, a long-term decision, even though that information probably shouldn't matter. I mean, those are some of the big ones, but it's tough out there. Do you think it's unique to invest in, this playground that you talk about? Are there any other areas in life or fields where you believe it's as challenging, it's as about the human?
31:13Well, yeah. So I did a podcast episode. I want to do a video on my channel too. I just haven't gotten around to it yet. Um, but it was, I called it investing in your health. And I drew a bunch of parallels between investing in financial markets and investing in your, in your physical and mental health. And I think that a lot of the parallels are compounding like health compounds over time, wealth compounds over time. And that's not easy to think about, which makes it, uh, easy to whatever, not, not save in a given month because you want to spend, but you're not thinking about the compounding effects or have a more conservative portfolio rather than a more aggressive one without thinking about the expected return trade-off because you don't understand how impactful that can be in the long run.
32:00And then with health, it's like, whatever, eating the bacon cheeseburger feels like it's not that big of a deal in the moment, but you do that every week or every day for years. And all of a sudden, in both cases, you wake up with less wealth than you had hoped when you're 55 or heart disease in the case of health when you're 55. And by the time you realize, oh, I made a mistake or I shouldn't have done that. I should have done that differently. There's not much you can do. You can't undo compounding because it needs time to work and it would likewise need time to be, well, I don't even know if you can unravel it.
32:33If you wake up and you're 50 years old and don't have any savings, that's going to be tough to recover from. Likewise with health and heart disease and stuff like that. So yeah, I think health is an interesting one where there are a ton of parallels where long-term thinking is beneficial, but not easy to do. Short-term thinking is easy and often pleasurable, but it leads to these incremental degradations that don't show up until they show up all at once slowly. And then all at once. Yeah. And there's no, there's no one single workout or lift that you could point to that you say, that's the reason I became strong and fit, you know, in the same way, it's more about consistency of effort over time with investing i say to my personal trainer all the time you have got everything you need to be a long-term investor because you're in great shape and then i come in the next week and he's like so should i buy tesla and i'm like no mate come on come on like oh no you've not got this yet you know it's funny to see that um yeah disciplined people in fitness should be amazing for investors and probably why you're good at it because you were disciplined within sport right yeah maybe maybe i don't know i i uh i never feel the pull to do weird stuff with my investments i really i don't know i just don't have that in my brain i don't think that is i mean i'm a disciplined uh athlete or like exerciser but i couldn't say i'm i'm getting more disciplined in investing but i don't think there's a correlation i know so many people that they work out every day but they they're terrible with money they're scared to invest that yeah so i think it's there are definitely similarities but i don't think just because you've got the discipline to exercise every day you've got the discipline to you know stay in the stock market have an investment strategy and stick to it and not tinker with it i also think there's an element of like understanding that you can i mean as a as a white guy who grew up in inner city birmingham in the uk i never really thought about the fact that i could play basketball it's like play football go for a swim you know these are the these are the things that were in front of me and if you're a kid and you're born on a basketball court like within your community right you think that's what we do that's a good point so and how many people from from where you're from even think that the market is something that they could do approach and if they were just consistent bought the same thing month in month out and did it like they play basketball then it would work for them so yeah i don't know if it's like a an exposure thing as much as anything else there's a a pretty famous canadian book called the wealthy barber uh it's written for canadian audience in 1989 that sold like a few million copies, but the author, Dave Chilton, a bit of a Canadian celebrity, and he just wrote a new version of the book, which I've got a video coming out, I think this Sunday, kind of reviewing the book.
35:14But one of the first lessons in the book is you can do this. And it's basically just saying like, even if you don't think you have the financial mind or the mathematical mind to manage your investments and to make good financial decisions, you can do it. Like it's basically not that hard, but I think it's a powerful message that the first lesson in this book about long-term decision-making is these words of encouragement. Even if you feel like you didn't come from the right background or don't have the right knowledge to do this, you can do it. It's not that hard. I want to ask about your investment approach because you're saying long-term diversification, but then you manage money for clients, right?
35:50And is that under the pretense that you could beat the market? No, no. So we use funds for a company called Dimensional Fund Advisors, which are really similar to index funds. They tilt a little bit toward smaller and lower priced stocks. So I just call it like an index fund with an evidence-based tilt. They're not technically index funds because they don't track an index, but they look very similar to an index fund. They've got super low fees, they're tax efficient, all that kind of good stuff. But that's not our value proposition. We use those because they're evidence-based and we think that they make sense.
36:24But if someone comes to us and says, I want to invest with you guys so I can access those funds that you use, we would say, no, that's not what we do. You should not pay our fees for that purpose. Our main value proposition is the marriage of portfolio management, tax-aware portfolio management, and financial planning. That covers things like tax and estate planning, retirement planning, and you add that in with portfolio management, integrate them all together. That's generally referred to as wealth management. So that's what we do for clients. And that's kind of the, I don't know, objective service.
37:04Those are the things that we do. But people usually pay us for those services for sure, but they're really paying us, I think, for peace of mind where they have someone that they know and trust, where they can offload this stuff. They know that we're doing good work. They know that we're giving them good advice and they don't have to think about it. And I've always been a huge advocate of do-it-yourself investing, DIY investing. I think that's a great thing for people to learn and for people to do. But man, if I think about myself, I am a good client of my firm. Our clients are like me. I've got a reasonably high income.
37:39I've got some investments. I'm very busy with my work and with my family. I don't have time to think about stuff like, I mean, in my case, it's not a great example because I think about managing portfolios all day. But if there was some other thing that was similarly important. I don't have time to think about learning how to do it, watching content, building spreadsheets, all that kind of stuff, doing analysis for something that's not core to my work or my family. So I think for busy people who have better stuff to do with their time, firms like PWL can be really valuable because they can just say, take this and it's out of their head.
38:22So that's what our clients typically look like. But the value proposition, it's really financial planning, portfolio management on paper, but it's really peace of mind. Therapy and counseling. Yeah. Reassurance. Reassurance is big, but when you look at what actually gets discussed in client meetings, yeah, there's a lot of sort of therapy adjacent stuff. Because a lot of it, it's like what I talked about earlier with the rational reminder idea. It's like giving people the information, Here are the trade-offs. Here are the considerations you should be thinking about in making this decision. But then people want to talk through the social or emotional or familial implications of the thing that they're going to do and who it's going to affect and how and how they might feel after the fact.
39:07So that's a lot of the discussions are stuff like that. So you have to have the skills and the knowledge from a financial planning perspective and a portfolio management perspective to frame the trade-offs for people. But that's really what people are doing. They're making trade-offs that are going to affect non-financial areas of their life. And they want to do that in a way that's informed. And that's what I think a good financial advisor accomplishes. From speaking to your clients and you yourself, do you think there's a point where more money just stops making you happy? Like enough, there's a certain point when you've got enough and it doesn't make a difference if you get an extra a hundred grand, an extra million or two.
39:39Yeah. So I think that the research on this, I mean, I can think about clients. I can wealthy clients who are unhappy. I think that distribution is always going to be there. But if we think about averages, if we think about what the literature says on this, I think it is pretty interesting where there does tend to be increasing wellbeing, increasing happiness with increasing wealth, but that does tend to plateau a little bit. There's a recent paper found that depending on what type of happiness you're measuring, it actually doesn't plateau, but it is increasing with log wealth, which means like, yeah.
40:13So it's like if you're making a million dollars, an extra$10 ,000 is not going to make you much happier, but an extra $100 ,000 might. And then as your income increases, the proportional amount of additional wealth or income that you need to feel happier is increasing at that rate, not linearly. So like$10 ,000 will make someone who makes$10 ,000 very happy, but$10 ,000 isn't going to affect someone with a million dollars. But if you increase it on a log scale, then it does have a lasting impact. But I think that there is still like the money you need to cover your basic needs, that's obviously necessary and people will be miserable without that.
40:56And then there's a point where you have enough to be comfortable. You're probably enjoying yourself. You can go on trips, whatever. You don't have to worry too much about money. I think that that's probably a sweet spot. And then as wealth starts to increase above that. Yeah, I think there's probably diminishing returns to increasing wealth. Now, I think we also have to think about trade-offs. If someone said, Ben, do you want a billion dollars? I would say yes. And I'm sure that I would be happy to have it and I could do whatever I wanted with my billion dollars. But if someone said, you are going to have to grind for the next 20 years and not see your family to get a billion dollars, would I still do it?
41:38Probably not. So I think we have to think about trade-offs when we're thinking about the marginal utility of wealth, like how much happier will you be with more money? I think everybody would be happier with more money if it was dropped in their lap, but that's not what happens. And so when you think about the trade-offs, having to work more hours, having to be maybe more stressed with a job with more responsibility and all that kind of stuff. Yeah, I think that the trade-off starts to get less attractive once you already have a high amount of wealth or a high amount of income. So how do you, with your clients, build that into retirement planning and kind of how do you shape a good retirement for them holistically, not just a dollar figure?
42:16We talk about that. So I wrote this paper called Finding and Funding a Good Life. I don't know when that was, a few years ago. And I basically just tried to take academic papers, other books, and I tried to just take it all and synthesize it into a relatively short paper that has at the end of each section, it has what I call reflective questions about whatever the topic was. You know what? Let me pull it up. I can tell you some of the questions. And so our advisors now, when they're meeting with clients, they'll factor this type of stuff into the planning process. So it's not just like, dear client, what do you want to retire with?
42:55Okay, here's what you need to do. It's like, let's have a conversation and reflect about what a good life looks for you and how we're going to afford that. So let's see. So there's a section on circumstances and adaptation. So that's like a big part of that literature on diminishing returns to increasing wealth from the perspective of happiness is the idea that we adapt to our circumstances. So you give me the billion dollars that I talked about earlier, I'd be like super pumped at first, but the happiness boost that I get from that would decrease over time as I adapt to my circumstances. Whatever, I'm eating caviar and stuff every day.
43:35I don't even like caviar, but whatever, expensive stuff. And at first I'm like super pumped about it. It's all new and fun, but then you adapt to it and that happiness boost goes away. So I've got this section of the paper on that, just explaining how that works and why it happens. and then the questions to reflect. When contemplating a major purchase, do you have a narrow focus on one aspect of it or do you consider how it will impact your life minute to minute? Which is a big thing. Like people talk about, I want to buy a cottage. And it's like, okay, let's talk about why that's important to you.
44:07And people usually imagine the great memories they're going to have with the kids and the grandkids or whatever it may be at the cottage, but they don't think about the two-hour drive and traffic on the weekend to get there or the kids spilling their drink in the backseat and messing the car up or having to go there in the winter because we have seasons in Canada to go and shut the cottage down before it gets too cold or like having to go there in the middle of the winter because a pipe burst, like all that kind of stuff. So they don't think about how it will affect their life minute to minute.
44:32They just think about the one, the one good aspect of it. And that can lead to questionable decisions. Um, this is another one. This one, man, I use this with my kids too, in a different way. Have you made a major purchase expecting it to increase your happiness? Did it? And people think about that. They reflect back on some major purchase and they think, oh, did that affect my happiness? And a lot of the times the answer is no. I use it with my kids because they'll be like, I want this new toy or whatever. And I'm like, do you remember how hard you worked to get this other toy? And they're like, yeah.
45:08I was like, how'd you feel when you got it like super excited do you ever play with it now it's like no it's like sitting in the box over there okay do you think the same thing's gonna happen with this toy that you want now and they're like yeah you're probably right uh anyway my son's like give me the toy i know honestly i've got about 100 little pool patrol doggies in my house and damien bought a giant tower for my son i said don't buy anything big damien buy something this big for my son he's got a fog on on the top of it it's got a fog on it's got cars it's got everything and i'm just It's like, I just keep stepping on the pieces.
45:38I have a bad role model for kids, unfortunately. But no, no, I get it. I get that. I try and have that conversation with him. And my son, he's 12. And he's just so, he's like, yeah, no, I'll run that risk. I'll take it. Give me the toy. Yeah, my oldest is 11, same. Yeah, they sometimes get it, but sometimes they're pretty persistent. Anyway, answer your question. You got any others on there that are good? so this is we're still on just the one section um oh this is a this is an interesting one have your values and preferences changed in the last decade do you expect them to change in the next decade because people will think they'll focus on some long-term goal i really want to accomplish this thing i'm going to make these sacrifices today to accomplish that but part of the problem with that is it's this thing called the end of history illusion which is like people change over time, but they think at any moment in time that they have become the person that they're going to be forever, which doesn't tend to be the case.
46:38And so someone makes these, like, I'm going to make these big sacrifices. I'm going to do all this stuff to try and achieve this end state, but they don't recognize that they may be a different person five years from now, 10 years from now. And that may materially change what the objectives are making the sacrifices they made to get there in hindsight, a waste. I think a good way to make yourself realize that is to look at your parents and look at how they've changed over your lifetime. You know, my mom was desperate to retire. She retired, she went back to work. That tells me that I might do that.
47:07Or, you know, when you say to people, oh, don't worry about retirement too much. You might want to work longer. I get comments going, why would anyone do that? I can't wait to quit. And I'm like, well, I look at the old people around me and 20, 30 % of them are still working past retirement. So there's a good chance. Yep, totally. And my parents are not working for money right now, but they're probably busier now than they were previously because they've taken up all these different volunteer positions and they're doing a ton of stuff. Yeah, I agree with you on that. Can you give us one more? Can we get a copy of this to share with the audience?
47:42Because I think that people would love to do these questions. Yeah, man, it's on our website. So I wrote this paper. So we had this guy named Brian Portnoy. He wrote a book called The Geometry of Wealth. We had him on our podcast and we did a year long sort of consulting engagement with him where he worked with our team of financial planners to get better at this, at these sort of softer skills. And at first I was like, this makes no sense. Why are we giving people advice that's not specifically related to finances? And it took me a while to get it, but eventually it kind of clicked and I was like, oh man, okay, this is actually really big.
48:15And I needed a way to make it really actionable though. So I went and wrote this paper. I didn't think it was going to be a big deal, but I don't know if it still is, but for years it was the most downloaded paper on our website. Um, so yeah, it, anyway, and it really did transform the way that we interact with our clients because we focus on all this stuff. Uh, it's, it's on our website, but I'll, I'll send you a link. Thanks. Um, so this is still in the same section on circumstances and adaptation, but there's a section, a subsection on income satiation points, which is what we were talking about earlier.
48:47Like when happiness plateaus with increasing income. And so some of the questions there are, how would your life change if you earned an extra$1 ,000 per month? What would you spend it on? In some cases, it's like, you know, I would pay a little bit more in rent so I can have a room for my kid instead of sharing a room. It's like, oh, that's probably pretty impactful. But sometimes it's like, whatever. I don't know. I'd buy a second Lamborghini. Yeah. You know, maybe not the best. but it's also it's also good to remember i it made me remember a time when a thousand pound would have been absolutely life-changing right and like beacon i should be grateful for the fact that now that is not the case and kind of think i'm really bad at looking back at past me and going it was hard back then you know you've done well congratulations to yourself or i think it's really important to like you said remember what you could survive on before because a lot of times you get more money you get a raise and then suddenly you like buy a new house with a bigger garden so you've got more gardening bills or you've got a new car which takes more gas whereas me obviously because i'm a bit late to this whole long-term investing i'm like i just got a raise for a thousand dollars about two months ago and i'm like well i can survive without it so i'll just stick in my pension straight away but i know if i started spending it i'll get used to having a new salary so i think yeah if you know what you can survive on you can you can deploy it a bit more tactically and if that thousand pounds is not going to produce a marked increase in your quality of life today, well, you might as well save it for tomorrow because you're probably going to get a better outcome from that down the line, right?
50:19Yeah. So that's the perpetual trade-off. In economics, it's called the marginal utility of consumption. How much happier will you be from spending money now as opposed to saving it for the future? And there's always a trade-off there because spending money now can make you happier. Like T, if you, I don't know, if there was something that you really needed or really wanted or could improve your life and you spent that money now, maybe that would be a good trade-off as opposed to saving it. I think a lot of people, when they learn about personal finance, they build the reflex to save because that's what a lot of people talk about.
50:51And it's probably a good reflex. People do need to save. But I also think there's the idea, for example, that everybody should save 10 % of their income no matter what always. I think that's problematic because for a lot of people, they probably shouldn't be saving. If someone has a rising income or expects a rising income over their life, and maybe you're there now to you, so saving is the right thing to do. But if someone has a rising income over their life when they're young maybe they shouldn't be saving i wasn't i was just enjoying it so you nailed it i know i definitely nailed it but not my not my pension but i nailed the first part of life yeah we have a we have um uh an organization in the uk like kind of like a think tanker the institute for fiscal studies and they model out retirement savings because we essentially have a linear approach of eight percent your whole life and they basically argue this doesn't accommodate for the fact that your skin in your 20s you have kids in your 30s and you have really high disposable income in your 40s and 50s and they model different paths and you see how lumpy they are and they're optimizing for lifetime spending so that you don't have this like feast and famine which i think most of us kind of relate to at different points and they conclude the same thing of it might not be right to save eight percent you don't want to sit here and put people off and say oh don't save but you also want to say to kind of a family that are struggling because you've got two young kids, it might be okay for you not to save right now and just focus on that until the kids are gone and catch up with high contributions later on.
52:16Totally. Yeah. And in economics, that's called consumption smoothing. So you smooth your consumption over time where you spend when you don't have as much and you save when you have more. But overall, the objective is to have a relatively smooth path of consumption over your lifetime, which definitionally means not having a smooth, if your income is changing over time, it means not having a smooth savings rate. Okay. I've got a couple more. There's a couple more in this section that are, I think are really interesting questions. Would you work an extra? You're doing all the work for us here. It's so good.
52:53No, go on. No, no, honestly, don't take that badly. This is like, this is gold. Okay, good. Would you work an extra three hours per day to earn more money i love that one too i feel like i really do it's almost pitch dark outside so i i i struggle i i think it's like if there was an extra three hours in the day and there was no money i would still work and i think that's my problem that you leave me alone on any time and i just start working this includes like christmas day i find it really hard to pull away from the work and yeah i don't even think it's about the money i think it's about a sense of productivity and purpose that i'm the same way so here's another one that is maybe more meaningful to you uh how much would you need to be paid to give up your favorite leisure leisure activity oh that's tough mine's basketball my favorite leisure activity is working you've got problems work your christmas you're i like going to the gym and stuff and that but and i don't think there's any money because i spend a lot of money on my fitness i never used to in the past but now it's all personal trainers and and and that's because i think it's all it's mind body and soul in that sense so i don't think there's any amount of money that you could really pay me to give up on my health in that sense i imagine you're the same right oh yeah i don't i agree there's no amount of money you could pay me to say you can never play basketball again yeah i have a my right hip is like it's wearing out i can feel it um my dad had to have his hip replaced recently.
54:22He's obviously quite a bit older than me, but I know that's coming at some point. And I think about like, I don't know what the number is, but I have maybe like a hundred competitive basketball games left in my body. And someone came and said, how much do I have to pay you to just give those up now? Like, man, honestly, there's no number. I guess a question for you on this is rather than how much money would I pay you to stop, how much money will you pay to continue playing you know in health care costs take a direct debit mate just take my card details and just yeah i mean a lot like i would pay uh i've looked at in quebec where i live you can do uh like we have public health care in canada so you can go on the wait list or whatever to to get a procedure like that in quebec there's also private clinics where you can pay to do it and i can tell you that that price is uh uh much lower than the maximum that i would be willing to pay to to stay in the game yeah uh so i don't know what's the number i don't know man what what could i afford you're gonna pay you're gonna pay i would pay i would pay it yeah up until i couldn't anymore but there's yeah if it trades off against uh you know i wouldn't sell my house probably to to do it um you wouldn't jeopardize your family's finances but you might jeopardize probably not yeah if i yeah i better take my car take my car yeah take the car i'll take the bus it's fine just take my car i know um i know i hope you don't mind talking about this and if you do we can cut it but i know i know you were diagnosed with uh cancer earlier this year and you went you went through that kind of process yeah how did that kind of how has that shaped your view on your finances your life the things that matter i've always been pretty aware of that type of thing.
56:06My mom had breast cancer when I was young and was given a very, very low probability of survival. She did survive and she's still alive today and she's fine. But ever since then, I was, I think, 11 or 12 when that happened. And that affected me probably more than I realized at the time where I was just like, I was honestly always waiting since that happened to get that news myself. I would always be like just checking my, which is probably why I found it so early, but I would always be super aware of any changes to my body. And I was always worried about that stuff. So when it happened, I was kind of like, all right, I've kind of been expecting this, honestly.
56:45Um, but it's still, it still was, it made it real and it definitely made me think about, uh, well, mortality. Cause I didn't know I ended up being fine. I was caught super early. It was not a type of testicular cancer that spreads generally. And so far I'm, I'm a year in now and I've been doing testing every three months to check for recurrence and it's all been fine. I never had to do so far at least chemo or radiation, which is some of the scary stuff. So all that was like as good as could have possibly been. But at the time that I was initially diagnosed or not even diagnosed, pre-diagnosis, the way that testicular cancer works, I mean, I hope this isn't too much medical stuff, but they tell you that there is a suspicion of testicular cancer, but they can't actually diagnose it until they've removed the testicle.
57:36Because the way that it works is that if they try and biopsy it, it can actually cause the cancer to spread just because of the way the lymphatic system connects to the testicle. So they do not biopsy testicles is my understanding. And so if there's a strong suspicion, they remove it and then they do the pathology afterwards. So all you know as the patient is there's a suspicion of cancer, but you don't know what kind. And so I start obviously reading a ton, figuring it out. Okay, there are two types of testicular cancer. One tends to be more metastatic, tends to spread. The other one doesn't.
58:12Okay, so hopefully it's the one that doesn't spread, which it ended up being. And then there's the stage. Like you don't know, even with either one, if it's been there for a long time, it could have spread to other parts of your body. So I was like, okay, now there's two types of testicular cancer. And depending on the stage for either one, there's different range of treatments. And so it's like, okay, and different survival probabilities. Testicular cancer is generally pretty good, even in the worst cases. But it's still like, I don't remember what the numbers are, but there's material differences in survival rates.
58:41So at the time of like the urologist says, we have to remove the testicle to do pathology because there's a suspicion of cancer. It's like, man, there's a massive range of potential outcomes. And that was hard. For your brain as well, for someone who you're going to go away, you're going to crunch the numbers and you're going to find everything eventually. ignorance is bliss in a way i i kind of i'm really good at parking those things i get terrible news i'm like i'm gonna put it out in a box and i'm putting it back there and it's not good for me but i would just get on with my life and go okay so right so right you know in that sense but i mean i did i kept i had to have surgery which is uh yeah it was still it was still something to go through so i had to deal with that and then as i was recovering from that i'm i did have time to just sit and think about like okay what's what's next and that's the part that was hard where it's like this, it's either going to be maybe not so bad or it's going to be like really harsh treatments and uncertain survival probabilities.
59:36So yeah, I think the biggest way that it affected me is like, I've always been pretty good about trying to trade off the present versus the future, but it definitely brought me a little bit more into the present where it was like simple stuff, man. Like, I don't know, let's, let's go to a restaurant with the kids and just chill out for a night, not make dinner. Like I would be more willing to do that probably now than I was prior to all this stuff happening and little things like that. Like let's go on a, let's go on a weekend trip to whatever, a different city and rent a hotel or an Airbnb and just not worry about that kind of spending as much.
1:00:14So yeah, I think the biggest impact was probably bringing me a little bit more into the future, even though I already tried to be pretty balanced, but it definitely, uh, it may forces you to be like, okay, I might not be here in a year. Did you tell, did you tell the kids at all? If you're honest about it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. When we still talk about it because I still have to go to like oncology follow-up appointments and stuff like that. So I tell them, got to go to the cancer doctor to make sure I still don't have cancer. And, uh, then the last one I get home, do you have cancer? Uh, but they get it.
1:00:46Like I, my two boys are older. They properly get it. My two girls are younger and they understand the words that we're saying. I don't think they fully grasp like what it actually means. But yeah, my, my boys were very in tune with the situation and aware of what was happening. And they're, man, so like a matter of fact and emotionally stable. They're just like, they process the information, very little emotion, be like okay well you'll do that thing that you have to do and then we'll see what the result is but hopefully it's the good one i mean i can see where they might get that yeah i know i was like why are they so analytical and like rational they seem very rational i've one question i've got for you this is so off piece with the finance but you said a minute ago that your mom's experience with cancer shaped you and changed your behaviors like do you want that same outcome for your kids in terms of do you want them to worry about themselves going forwards is that was that a positive thing for you in that sense i know it led you discovering a tough question man because it's it's not positive like i've worried about that probably every day ever since my mom was sick and that's probably not healthy now on the other hand i probably caught mine so early because i'm so worried about it like t you mentioned you worry about it too but like i used to check my nuts all the time and Yeah, you were like, ignorance is bliss, right?
1:02:12No, because my grandma passed away from breast cancer, but like I went the opposite direction. I was like, I'm just not going to think about it. Like, obviously it was very sad, but like I didn't take it onto myself being like, it might happen to me. But like you said, if I'm in the shower and I'm like, what the frick is that? And then my girl's like, it's an ingrown hair. And I'm like, thank God. But like, I still, every single time, like my heart palpitations, like I'm not good with like surgeries or doctors. When I got my teeth taken out, I made them sedate me. but i was like no i'm you know you're not pulling my teeth out put me to sleep so yeah um but yeah really scary you kind of want your kids to have that paranoia don't you but you don't want it to affect their i don't know man i don't want them to live with that sort of fear that i have always lived with but i would also hope that they catch something like that early like i did so i that's a tough one i think like you approach it in the way that you have and you you say it's no big deal because i found it early it's not something to be worried about but here's how you check you know yeah and uh do that every couple of weeks and that's yeah and that's part like women need to do that don't they and i think men we're meant to yeah men should but we don't have that kind of conversation you know i think it's even controversial whether men should do it because it can lead to yeah i tried to read about that and uh yeah it wasn't super obvious to me that everyone agrees that you should be doing self-examinations i i had always been super in tune with that but yeah i'm not a i'm not a doctor i don't know don't take my advice on whether to check your nuts.
1:03:33For me, it was, uh, I would check periodically. Like it wasn't like I was checking every day, but I actually got hit with a ball in the nuts when I was playing basketball and whatever it hurt. And, but it was a, maybe it was a finger, not a ball. It might've been a finger, like someone coming off a screen or something and it just got smacked in the nut and it hurt, but I was like, whatever. Like I kept playing, but then it, the pain like didn't go away. Uh, and so I told my wife, like, listen, my, my testicle like hurts. It's super sore and it's kind of swollen. It won't go down. Uh, and then actually, you know what, because it was swollen, I, I, then I like poked around and did more of an involved self-examination and I found this little tiny bump.
1:04:17It's like, all right. So I told my wife about that. She booked a doctor's appointment. So you're going to the doctor right now, which is good. Cause I, I don't know if I would have done the same thing. And that doctor didn't do much, but they referred me to a urologist and to get an ultrasound. And that's how, that was two years ago. And initially it was so small that the urologist was like, listen, there is a thing there, but a lot of guys have things on their testicles. And it's so small right now that it's not at a point where we actually worry about it. Like we wouldn't do anything because like I mentioned earlier, they can't do a biopsy.
1:04:49so we tracked it so then it was a year after the initial ultrasound that it came back and it was had grown to a point where the urologist was like yeah okay this is now suspicious of being cancer so we gotta we gotta do the surgery but yeah all started with getting hit in the nuts thank god for that guy like the urologist actually said that the person that hit me in the nuts may well have saved my life oh you go back and tell him do you know it's just a random I can return the favor, be like, there's one for you.
1:05:21But no, thank you for sharing that because you don't have to. And I think like influences many things and like you're a big financial influence, but I think like your ability to talk about that like you do and be comfortable to do it will inspire other people. I know I'm going home tonight and checking my notes. A hundred percent. Yeah, you know, if I find it, I'll thank you. so i i talked about it really openly on on the rational reminder podcast because i just felt like i didn't want i couldn't i couldn't hide it like we do a podcast every week and so i missed one i think i've only missed i've missed two podcast episodes ever one of them was because cameron interviewed somebody in person or maybe twice actually where i wasn't there um and so i wasn't on those episodes but then the other one was i was the day after my my surgery i just wasn't in any kind of shape to do the interview.
1:06:09So I missed that episode and I just felt like I didn't know what the future was going to look like. And so I didn't want to try and hide it and be like weird about not being on episodes randomly and not saying what. So I just decided I was like going to be super upfront with the audience. This is what's happening even pre-diagnosis. And people were, it was received really well. Everyone was like, you know, whatever, offering their words of encouragement, whatever. But the craziest thing is that I heard from, I can't remember if it was one or two people. I've heard from a bunch of people who went and got checked, but I heard from a couple of people who had been worried about something on their nuts, heard me talk about it.
1:06:50That caused them to go and get it checked out and they received a diagnosis and had to have surgery. And they're like, man, you talking about that probably saved my life. So I'm like, it was a little awkward to talk about, but I'm glad that I have been open about it, even if it helped just a couple of people. Well, every conversation you have could have that impact because you're speaking to a whole new audience today that might not listen to your podcast in a similar way. True. So, you know, I don't want to make this about me because the episode's about you, but I got randomly assaulted on a night out by a complete stranger, a sucker punch to the side of the head, and I hit my face off the floor pretty badly and it kind of just exploded my face a bit.
1:07:27Was in hospital, surgery, got home after, I've been up for like 48 hours at this point. And I felt really compelled to just turn the camera on and say to my audience, this has happened. Because it would be very noticeable on camera, let's put it that way. His face was messed up. Yeah, it was a bad way. And I just did it. And I put the video out and I posted it. And then I just got like hundreds of, thousands of exaggeration, hundreds of men saying the exact same happened to me. And I never told anyone. or my brother died because of a random attack, like really common thing, just male random attacks of violence.
1:08:08And all these people just reaching out, just saying, it's so nice that you did that because I felt weak because I got attacked and it's really helped me. I think it's anything, I'm radically honest now with my own audience. I had a hair transplant recently and I just said it, you know, I got no, I don't think anything good comes from kind of sitting on those male issues. And, you know, you are a man that men follow, you know, so you can lead from the front with all points, including your nuts. Yeah, yeah. So there's the two guys that said that they got the diagnosis. That was super impactful for me to learn, but there were probably in the hundreds of people that reached out to say, either that they've been through this before, they're going through it now, or that they have one testicle for some other reason.
1:08:57but a lot of guys that have one one testicle which is kind of funny oh i mean do we end it there is that is that is that where we we finish it do you want to do you want to leave us with any form of financial wisdom please just to pivot it away for people uh is there anything that you think you know is the bit of financial information that are that are already you would like to think like if they watch your content what's the one thing they should take away from it or the one overarching lesson. I think that the big thing, and this is why I did the recent video on investing 101, is that good investing or smart investing is really simple.
1:09:33You need to use low-cost index funds. You need to be globally diversified. You have to figure out your asset allocation. But once you figure those things out, which I don't think are terribly hard, and I talk about some of that stuff in that video, you got to be disciplined. You got to pick a portfolio and a strategies you can stick with and you have to stick with it. You have to save the right amount, but not too much as we talked about. But it's not that hard. And I think a lot of people are intimidated. I think a lot of people who are not intimidated are probably doing the wrong things. They're probably overconfident and doing stuff like, I don't know, trading options or trying to trade stocks and all that kind of stuff.
1:10:11But yeah, if there was one thing that people watching my content would come away with, It's that you should own low cost index funds and stay invested for the long term. But I made that video because I talked to somebody that lives near where I live. And we saw each other at the gym. And they were like, hey, I found your podcast. I've been listening to it. And I was like, oh, that's so cool. Like it's so cool to meet someone locally that's listening to my podcast. And they started talking about their portfolio that they designed based on what they'd understood from the podcast. And it was like not what I would have suggested.
1:10:51And so that's why I went and tried to make a video. Like here's exactly what you should be thinking about and doing. But yeah, even for someone who has watched my content, it's not always super obvious what you should be doing. That's not just you, just to reassure you there. I have people come up to me all the time and go, I watch all your content. I really love it. Can you check my portfolio? I'm like, okay, sure. I'll have a look. and then it's just like NVIDIA and just a lot of tech stocks. And I'm like, this is what you got from watching me? I literally say in every video, I buy a global index inside of a tax efficient account and that's it.
1:11:25And then it's like, you're all in on tech. So I don't take that as like a you problem. That's good. I'm glad it's not just me. Yeah. Yeah. Well, no, thank you so much for your time, especially for, I mean, all of it. We've gone through the research, actually gone through the emotion and then sharing the story at the end i think is really enjoyed it we were both we filmed six episodes in two days and this is this final one and it's pretty dark here we're both tired but i feel completely energized before this i was knocking on red bull we were both yawning and then yeah i was really excited to talk to you obviously because i love your content but i was i was flagging and now i'm ready i could talk to you for another two hours but but we won't because you you know you've got a life to live hey man i feel the same way i could keep hanging out and chatting with you guys for uh for a long time no thank you so much honestly really appreciate it i think the audience will love it so yeah legend legend thank you awesome thanks guys no worries ben felix what a legend what do you think about that episode i just got that song in my head you know like what a man man yeah i got a bit of a man crush on ben felix a bit it's just a what a guy stand up guy you know like don't meet your heroes i met one and he's a legend yeah he was just a stand-up guy lovely the whole way around like an all-round good human being smart tool nails like the academic rigorous stuff well researched but also the human stuff and you know seems like he's a good dad as well and had a laugh with us some of the questions he asked his clients i thought were really good about like what what makes you happy it's not just about how many what returns do you want but like all these other questions like how much money would it take for you to not work or like how much would you get paid to yeah i was I was worried when I said to him, you're doing Agile Forest, that he thought I meant that this was bad.
1:13:08But I was like, I'm loving this section. I could have just gone through those. Yeah, I wish everyone brought those kind of questions. We'll link that paper, like we said. We'll link his website so you can check it out as well, because obviously there's loads of good work on there. And we mentioned the dispute with Elroy Dimson in that one. So we'll link that episode here so you can check that one out. It's not really a dispute. They're not got beef, but it's more just they disagree on that. They agree on some things, they just disagree on that. They agree on most things. it's just that the home bias point the different points of view so we'll link that episode for you here
From the publisher
Ben Felix has one of the few personal finance channels I watch. Chief Investment Officer at PWL Capital, he also co-hosts the Rational Reminder podcast. We discuss the finance ‘rules’ to avoid, why human behavior makes us bad investors, and the questions you need to ask if you want your money to support a better life. Ben also opens up about his cancer diagnosis earlier this year and how it’s changed his perspective.
🎉Sponsors
The British and International Franchise Exhibition - go for free: https://makingmoney.email/franchise-exhibition-london
TaxZap - Do your tax return / self-assessment: https://makingmoney.email/taxzap
Vanta - Get your company secure and compliant: https://vanta.com/makingmoney
Odoo - Apps to run your business: https://www.odoo.com/r/MM1
–
If you purchase a product or service using one of the links above, we may receive a commission. There will be no additional charge for you. Remember investments can fall and rise - and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Other fees may apply. Your money is at risk.
This is not financial advice. The reason it’s not financial advice is because it’s not tailored to you. We explain the principles of building wealth but if you want personalised advice, it’s worth speaking to a financial advisor. As with everything financial, please do your own research. We really encourage that because no one cares more about your money than you and if you learn the basics then it will change your life.
Here are the papers referenced:
Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice Anarkulova, Aizhan and Cederburg, Scott and O'Doherty, Michael S.
Finding and Funding a Good Life - Ben Felix
Ben’s channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/BenFelixCSIRational Reminder podcast: https://www.youtube.com/c/RATIONALREMINDER
Chapters:
00:00 - Franchise Exhibition ad
00:39 - Why finance?
06:29 - Home bias
13:42 - Vanta ad
14:47 - Are you over-exposed?
17:19 - Low US returns coming?
23:06 - 4% rule
27:09 - TaxZap ad
28:23 - Rational investing?
35:00 - Investment approach
38::45 - Money and happiness
41:24 - Funding a good retirement
45:25 - Trade-offs
50:03 - When you shouldn’t save
54:52 - Cancer diagnosis
01:09:09 - Best investment advice
