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Making Money Podcast Episode Summary: "Is Buy-to-Let Dead?"
Episode Overview In this episode, Damien Jordan and Timeyin Akerele engage in a discussion about the current state of the buy-to-let (BTL) market in the UK, featuring Rob Dix, co-founder of Property Hub. The conversation covers the challenges faced by landlords, the evolving dynamics of the rental market, and whether buy-to-let is still a viable investment strategy.
Key Discussion Points
- Current State of Buy-to-Let
- Declining Interest: The appeal of buy-to-let is diminishing due to decreased returns and increasing regulation.
- Landlord Population: There is a notable decline in the number of landlords, with many leaving the market as returns fade.
- Value Addition: There needs to be a discussion about the value landlords add to the economy and the importance of rental properties.
- Need for Rental Properties
- Rental Necessity: The need for rental housing is acknowledged; without landlords, potential consequences arise, such as increased reliance on social housing.
- Balance in Housing: There's a historical balance between social housing and private rental that has shifted towards the latter.
- Regulatory Environment
- Regulation Impact: The regulatory landscape has changed, making it more complex and costly for individuals to operate as landlords.
- Housing Benefit Insights: A significant amount of government spending goes towards housing benefits, often viewed negatively by the public as supporting "greedy landlords."
- Public Perception of Landlords
- General Opinion: Approximately 50% of the UK population dislikes landlords, although 80% of tenants report satisfaction with their individual landlords.
- Cultural Factors: There's a cultural perception where homeownership is considered aspirational, fueling resentment towards landlords.
- Challenges Facing Tenants and Landlords
- Rent Increases: Rising rents and living costs are a significant concern for tenants, with many unable to afford increases.
- Eviction Processes: Discussions about eviction processes reveal issues in the court system that favor tenants but create challenges for landlords trying to maintain their investments.
- Future of Buy-to-Let
- Long-Term Viability: Despite challenges, buy-to-let is not dead but requires a shift in strategy. Expectation of immediate profit is unrealistic; instead, a long-term view is essential.
- Investment Strategy: The episode emphasizes the importance of leveraging properties for long-term wealth creation rather than seeking short-term gains.
Key Takeaways
- Changing Dynamics: Buy-to-let is evolving, and potential investors should be aware of the landscape's challenges and regulatory changes.
- Long-Term Perspective: Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term approach to property investment, focusing on leveraging assets for growth over time.
- Education is Key: Extensive research and understanding of the property market and relevant legislation are crucial for successful investment.
- Resource Availability: Tools and resources for better property investment, including calculators and educational materials, are highlighted as essential for prospective landlords.
Additional Resources
- Rob Dix's Free Tools: [Property Hub Money Calculator](https://www.propertyhub.net/money)
- Financial Advice: For personalized financial guidance, visit [Making Money Advisors](https://makingmoney.email/financial-advisors-audio).
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This structured summary provides insights into the complex issues surrounding the buy-to-let market in the UK, emphasizing key points from the discussion while also highlighting the evolving attitudes toward landlords in today's economy.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01You know what I love, Damo? Things that save me time. You don't have YouTube premium, mate, so I just don't believe that. Granted, I'll give you that one. However, I've got one for you. A great time saver in personal finance is Money Week magazine. They spend a lot of time distilling the biggest stories in personal finance down into consumable chunks, so you don't have to scroll and scroll. They give practical tips on savings, investments, pensions, the UK economy, the global economy. It's like your five a day, but for finance. If you want to give Money Week a try, you can get six issues in print and the app absolutely free by visiting moneyweek.com forward slash money.
0:34After your trial, you'll save an extra£5 a quarter on the subscription, which is exclusive to Making Money listeners. And that's moneyweek.com forward slash money. But there's a link in the description if you just want to click that. It's less dominant than it used to be. Is that attractive than it used to be? And I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. Is buy to let dead and should it be? Rob Dix is the founder of Property Hub and host of The Property Podcast. Are there greedy landlords? Yes, definitely. If you've got this scarcity, that's always going to be a problem. Why do you think the UK population hate landlords when it's also such a popular way to make money?
1:11Because they put up my rent 25%. That's why I hate landlords. That'll do it, yeah. There are so many better ways to make money in the short term than property, but then for someone to store money and compound it over the long term, I think it makes property amazing for that. so rob today i want to answer two questions really i want to answer is by to that dead and should it be as in should it should it exist is it is it a bad thing for the economy for for people in the uk i want to start with that first um i would like to quote marks if that's okay a great place to start landlords like all other men love to reap where they've never sowed so what value do you think landlords add to the economy starting you light here mate let's just ease it a bit like wow um so i'll start by saying i am a landlord and a tenant so i see it from both sides right um and i think if we move a little bit away from mark i think it's like it's not an extreme position to say there needs to be the option of renting a home so like otherwise like well no you have to buy it otherwise you're living with your family that's it i don't think anyone's really going to say that.
2:22So there needs to be, has some kind of ability to rent your home. So then the question becomes, how big should that sector be relative to others? What other options do they need to be? Where does it fit in the mix? And who should be supplying it? So there needs to be, there needs to be some ability, like the social housing sector used to be about 30 % of all UK homes. Now it's, I don't know, about 17, something like that. The buy to let sector has pretty much doubled, I think, from 10 % to 20%. And so the state sector is shrinking, the private sector is increasing. You probably want to have a balance between the two, but what is the right balance?
2:59And on the private side, is it companies or is it individuals? That's probably, I think, where we want to kind of constrain the conversation. Because, yeah, you could say, well, you just can't have landlords at all, but that's just not a tenable position, right? Yeah, we need to agree that people do need to rent. I've rented it multiple times in my life. And I couldn't buy. I didn't have the money to buy. I wanted to rent. But you think the conversation sometimes is just, we need to delete the landlords, basically. But what's going to fill that gap? I think there's a perception that if there were no landlords, everything would be amazing.
3:34And I don't think that's true. It arguably would be better in some ways. But you can't say, well, if you just couldn't rent, then would everyone magically be able to buy? No. Would house prices even fall that far? Probably not. There's a lot of other stuff going on. So I think you can talk about regulating the rental sector. You can talk about how big the rental sector needs to be. And you can talk about who makes it up. But just going like, oh, no landlords. That just seems like super simplistic. Equally simplistic to say, no, landlords are amazing. Everyone should be a landlord. Both extremes don't make any sense.
4:05Should we look at it then? So do you think, first of all, then, that the rise in the private sector is because of a decline in the public sector? As in the government got rid of houses. Sorry, there's drilling in the background. Someone's adding an extension to a HMA. Sticking in some extra bedrooms at the back. So if you can hear the drilling, that's what that is. Yeah, so do you think then it's a product of that decline in the social sector? I think it's partly that. So I think there's no denying that when buy-to-let mortgages came out in the 90s, property generally became financialised. It was much easier to buy a place and rent it out, so lots of people did.
4:43So if buy-to-let mortgages were banned, for example, and taken on an extreme position, then you wouldn't get so many landlords. They'd have to be cash landlords, basically. Exactly. So you wouldn't get so many. So that, I think, is probably a big part of it. But there's also an element of like, because the social sector has shrunk, which is partly the stock being sold off and partly just not enough being built to keep up with the population, keep up with demand, then naturally the mix is going to change. So you've got the government paying billions of pounds in housing benefit to private landlords.
5:13And people look at that and go, oh, well, we're giving our money to these greedy landlords. Well, no, someone, they've got to be housed somewhere. So either the social sector is going to be absorbing that, which there's a cost to, or the private sector is. I think there's a strong argument that there should be a bigger social sector. And there are people in the private rented sector who would be better off in the social sector. but there's just been like a completely weird lack of interest in that from all governments going back as long as i can remember even when you could borrow money for practically free to kind of like go and have a massive building project no one really talks about it much so in the absence of that you need to have you need to have the supply coming from somewhere because it is interesting the housing benefit point i think the figure's about 25 billion that's a lot yeah it's a lot of money that goes and it is just paid via the tenant to the landlord essentially but the problem is landlords because you know they're in it to make money this is why people do things it's why people invest in the stock market you know they want to make money they look for the highest price they can possibly achieve in a market don't they and without control that just means the housing benefit burden gets pushed up and up and up yeah so there's nothing stopping them basically just extracting more and more housing benefit over time and if you know if the government had that extra 25 billion in their pocket it that would fix a lot of holes you know yeah but it's actually the opposite problem at the moment in that they have sort of kept they capped housing benefit they froze it for a long time they upset a bit and froze it again so it used it used to be set so with housing benefit you could access the bottom i think third of all rental properties and now because rents have gone up and the cap hasn't i think you can now only access the bottom five percent the cheapest five percent of housing with housing benefit alone.
6:55So basically people having to top it up. And if this kind of gulf has opened up, so it's like, well, if I rent it to someone on housing benefit for this much, but I could rent it to someone who wasn't reliant on housing benefit for this much, then I'm either going to go down that route or you're probably going to be incentivized to not invest that much in your property if you're not recouping that much rent. But then if you put housing benefit up so people reliant on it can access more, then the housing benefit bill goes up. so you kind of can't win either way yeah i've i've read that there's 21 so one in every 21 adults in the uk is a landlord which is four times as the number of teachers and i think it's twice as many like frontline nhs workers so it's a lot of people isn't it so you know the majority there's going to be a lot of people listening to this that are landlords but there's also going to be a lot of people that aren't that hate them why do you why do you think the uk population hate landlords when it's also such a popular way to make money because they put up my rent 25 that's why i hate well so it so 50 of the uk population say that they don't like landlords but 80 of tenants say they're happy with theirs it's other landlords that they don't like so there's like a general hatred towards them as an idea but on an individual level people who experience them most of them say my landlord's good yeah i do love my landlord she like she just uh landlady landlady yeah she just uh replaced all my windows we had some mold you replaced the windows with an extra rent mate by the sound of it that's a good point yeah but yeah to be fair i said i'm not paying we're not paying this increase in rent unless you fix the flats and then she like fixed all the things that were missing and yeah change the windows we'll have any double glazing all these things so we've got a good relationship with her but every month you're paying 25 more rent yeah it kind of hurts a little That's a lot as well to me.
8:42A big jump. Go on, sorry. We can talk about why rents have gone up in recent years. But I think if we could take the wider people hate landlords, I think there's a few reasons. So one is you've always got a minority of bad actors in anything. So people get very upset about... You hear the horror stories about bad landlords because they are out there. It doesn't mean they're the majority, but they're there. In landlord circles, people... You get all this kind of really strong stuff about how terrible tenants are because there's a minority of bad tenants who play the system and all the rest of it.
9:11Most people are absolutely fine on both sides, but it's like you hear about the extremes, right? I think also there's a cultural factor to it. I think because homeowning is aspirational in the UK in the way that it isn't in some other countries, it's like if you can't do that, you're obviously looking for reasons that have contributed to that being the case. And I think you can make a solid argument that landlords have contributed in some way to that being the case. And I think another factor is people, the rental system in the UK is shocking. The experience of being a renter, it's like way less secure than it is.
9:47The way it's operated, it won't be in the future, but it's operated on like a year-to-year basis. So the whole system is terrible. And so you kind of blame the landlord as part of that, even though it's actually the system. Do landlords in general add to the housing stock that's available or do they take it away? Because I think a landlord will say, I provide housing, I take units, I convert them, whatever. Other people will say, every landlord that buys a home takes one away from a potential buyer, so reduces the stock. Yeah, there's arguments both ways. I think we need to separate out the dynamics of how property values are priced versus how rent is priced and how those two things work.
10:26Because people look at high rent, look at how high housing price is, but they're caused by slightly different things. But do landlords contribute? I mean, I think there was a point in the past where landlords were, you could become a landlord with like 100 % mortgage, it was really easy, the tax situation was pretty good. So you could have landlords outbidding owner-occupiers quite easily. I think that's now far less common because landlords, the tax situation is completely different. They have to put in a 25 % deposit versus a 5 % or 10 % deposit. They get taxed 5 % extra in terms of the stamp duty and other stuff as well.
11:04So I think it's harder now to say landlords are just flat out outbidding. They are contributing to demand because there will be some people going out there and buying homes. There's also an argument they can do contribute to supply because builders will only build as much as they can sell without affecting their price. Builders aren't going to flood the market by building loads of homes that pushes prices down. So if you've got landlords coming in and buying new, contributing to the demand side, you could say that that adds to the housing stock. They incentivize builders to build because they know they can sell a certain portion of the unit.
11:38One thing that I've seen, so to caveat, I own a buy-to-let property. I bought it because I'm the generation that grew up watching Sarah Beanie and these kind of things. And I've always been, to me, I think it's like etched in my brain that it's a good thing to do. I also, we'll get onto the investment side and why actually in a moment. But what I've noticed is that because of the increased costs that are being put on landlords to get units, there's a concentration of landlords bidding at the lower end of the market which i would also argue are the units that first-time buyers can afford yeah so gone are the days where landlords are buying 250 000 pound units they're trying to buy the 150 000 pound because the stamp duty costs because the deposit requirements to buy 150 000 pound unit you're looking at like 60 grand in cash that you're going to need to hand over before you do anything else you know so it's almost like everyone's being pushed into the area of the market where the problem is yeah if that makes sense yeah think that's probably fair and like you say there is such a there is such an entrenched belief i don't know if it maybe it is generational i don't know but there's such a there's such an appeal of property compared to other it was propaganda right it was like tv-based propaganda that basically anyone could buy a home homes under the hammer sarah beanie i remember every time i watched that show the outcome was like they've spent too much but they've still made loads of money because property prices went up yeah exactly it was i watched that wide-eyed as a child yeah thinking i want to do this yeah no but that was a weird time and that's not it's not true it's not the case anymore i was about to ask do you think gen z still feel the same way that we did like at bricks and mortar you've got to get your property get on a property ladder or do you think the perception is changing they probably feel pretty despondent about it right and feel like that the housing market is not for them or it's been taken away from them which i think is why landlords get the blame because when you've got a guy on tiktok going i buy 100 units like you know or i've taken this one starter home and flipped it into six bedrooms and i'm making 10 grand a month and a guy's like well what the hell yeah you know and they've got the ability to go i can bid more than they're asking because i can make this into a six-bed hmo and sweat the asset you know and then the first time buyers end up living in a bedroom with an en suite rather than a that's another reason they've got a bad reputation i lived in one of these houses in converted house in kilburn before like when i just got out of uni i live with my friend it was a house for probably like a two-bedroom house it turned into a six-bedroom house so like when the living room got turned into three bedrooms and everyone had one bathroom to share it turned into like a shanty town the bathroom was like flooded we were wading across to get to the shower then the floorboards started getting weak because there was so much heavy use in the bathroom and i'm just like and the landlord was like i want my rent on this day every month i'm putting out 50 pounds and we're like you're just bleeding at six people who are all young students or like young graduates and i think that kind of gives you the attitude that this guy's just greedy like yeah we've got one bathroom between six of us for the jackass yeah are there greedy landlords yes yeah definitely not all of them but obviously they exist yeah exactly but but all i don't know like you could definitely like if you if you think it's if you think it's immoral or whatever don't do it but i think it's I think it's a strong position to take that having any kind of private provision of rental properties is bad.
14:52Because if you didn't, then you'd need to go, well, institutions would have to do it. And they're motivated by profit as well. They're a lot less compassionate as well, right? If you're one of a thousand people on a spreadsheet and you miss the rent, they're taking you to court, they're going through the proceedings. Whereas if you can pick up a phone to an individual and go, I'm struggling this month, you know I always pay on time. That's happened to me in lockdown. Yeah, they might go, all right, T, I'll help you out for a moment. I was there for three years and then in lockdown I was like, I just graduated where I'm not working.
15:18You're telling me you're popping bottles every weekend. Going down some revs to Cuba, mate, doing your little salsa dancing. Telling the man you can't pay the rent. What the hell? You're going out four days a week. Cost of living, mate. Hard times. Do you know how much it costs to live? To live how I want to live. That's funny. Cost standards to maintain. That's funny. I wasn't aware that you were struggling. You had a nice river view and everything. You were doing great, mate. Yeah, so I think there's i think the best thing is choice like i think there should be the option there should be private providers and there's like individual providers and there should be institutional providers i think the private providers should have to maintain standards and like have and actually have a clue what they're doing which and i think we can talk about how like the balance is changing in terms of like who are the individual property owners but having institutions in the mix as well great but with something that we have seen over over the last couple of years is rents rents for a long time for newly advertised properties were going up much higher than rents within tenancies.
16:17So if you were renewing, then your rent increase would be lower than if you moved out and they rented it to someone new. And so that's an example of where individuals are not, in every case, maxing the rent as much as they possibly can. They just want to have an easy life. If you're there, you're paying, you're not in any trouble, great. They'll just keep you there. An institution, I think, is less likely to do that because they've got an obligation to their shareholders to maximize value. And so you're probably going to see your rents going up faster. So I have like a personal take on this, which I know you might disagree with.
16:49And I want to present the other argument to it as well. But I've made the decision just to not increase rent on a tenant while they're there. If it works for me on day one, if they live there for five years and they paid up rent, I won't put it up. And, you know, people will say, oh, you should because, you know, it'll produce a better return, blah, blah, blah. And what that means is, if they move There is that big jump then in the return because you go to the market rate. I was reading an article the other day that was like, why you should increase rents. And I think this is going to seem like a pretty bad argument.
17:18But they were basically saying, if I don't increase the rent on a tenant at the rate of inflation, say, not only are my returns in real terms going backwards, but they're in a position where they're stuck in the house because the rental market around them rises. So they get to a place where it's like, oh, they're paying 600 a month. They live there for five years. is they look around and comparable properties are now 1 ,000 and they can never leave. Yeah. Which, I don't know how I feel about that because you're basically implying that they can't save their own money and buy a house. Well, I think it can be true, but it's not always true.
17:51You definitely hear from people, you'll see it on Reddit and stuff like that. People go like, my landlord's just increased my rent, I can't afford it, but I can't afford to move out, what do I do? So that clearly does happen, but then I think it's quite hard to say, well, morally, you must charge as much as you possibly can. Yeah, it's definitely the landlord argument. It's like landlords.com. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, I thought it wouldn't be the Guardian. But then there's a lot of people who go like, fantastic, great, I've got more I can save, I can get my own place. So it can be true, but it's not necessarily true.
18:18I just lived through that exact situation. So you were stuck? No, I wasn't stuck. They increased it 25%. I'm like, oh, I'm not paying an extra five. I might as well say, my rent was one five, then it got raised to two grand. So I was like, oh, forget that. I want a garden. I'm going to go move out because I've got a kid. I want a garden. I grew up with a garden. we'll go find somewhere in the local area for if i'm gonna pay two grand i want to garden yeah looked around closest for garden is like three grand three and a half grand so i was like i take it back we're gonna stay we will stay here for another year and then she's like look if you stay here for another year like i'll give you five years rolling you can leave when you want but i won't raise the rent for five years well okay that's really nice gives us some time we don't have to rush we can find our next home either we buy or we rent or we move to manchester we move somewhere else but it gives us like another year to figure out what we want to do so we could have move but i'm like i don't really feel like paying three grand right now so like give me some time to save and then maybe next year i'll buy or you know move so it gives you the flexibility should we have rental control so that there's certainty for both parties because it is a weird market that isn't it where there's like a morality because in every other market that we exist in the company is going to push the price as high as they can basically you know things you buy in the store they're going to they're going right to the level they can yeah well i think the coming back to like, I'll get to that, but why you should, why there's an argument for you should increase your rents is if you were ever in a position where you needed to, then you'd have to do it suddenly, which it sounds like is what happened in your case.
19:41It's far more palatable to have like small increase if the market justifies it, rather than what we've seen over the last couple of years is landlords' costs have suddenly gone up because of mortgage rates and stuff like that. So they've gone, oh, I need to increase my rents. What could it be? What should it be? And they'll do a massive increase all at once. But isn't that the investment risk that they take? So, you know, they're passing that on to the tenant on a deal of like, you can rent here for this much. I would argue that the landlord has to stomach the downside sometimes. I completely agree.
20:09But I'm saying like with the maximum being what the market norm is, like you can't go, oh, my costs have gone up. Therefore, you have to pay more than the guy next door. It just doesn't make any sense. but if you it's fine i think in your case it's fine for you to just never increase the rent as long as you know that you'll never have to suddenly increase the rent so but i structure my portfolio and my savings like that i have cash on hand i i don't i don't like operate with zero so if the interest rates move slightly i'm wiped out because i see that as like that's investment risk yeah that's how i prepare for that investment yes right yeah exactly so but i think there's a lot of who have not taken that action.
20:50But then their attitude is like, well, the tenant has to pay. I have to put the rent up. And it's like, well, no, you should... In the stock market, no one's going, well, I have to get my money back. You take a risk, right? You take the downside. Morally, I agree. And when people say, oh, mortgage rates have gone up, so my costs have gone up, therefore you should pay more. I didn't see cutting rents when mortgage rates went down. Exactly, exactly. But this is all with, This is all with the market norm being the ceiling on it. And that's the thing. Because at the moment, you've got a situation where you've got more demand for rentals than there is supply.
21:27So if rents are naturally going to increase until there's a balance, right? Some people get priced out. That's just how it works. If you artificially cap the cost of rent below what the market would naturally have, then you just have a shortage. So you've got a different problem. So you see places like Sweden, the Netherlands, places like that, where they have got rent controls. Great. People, if you're in a property, happy days, but you've got massive waiting lists. You've got people who just can't find anywhere to live. So you're always going to have, if you've got this scarcity, that's always going to be a problem.
22:02And you can either sort it out through price or you can sort it out through a different type of rationing. But there's always going to be that shortage. So capping the rent artificially doesn't solve that. Is there any cap at the minute? Can you just, in theory, up it as much as you want? In theory, yeah, but in practice, no. No, because the market. Because if you think landlords set rents, go and try and price something for£100 a month more than other properties in the area and see if you get any interest. You won't. So the market sets the rent. So it's the whole supply-demand thing. I actually, I was like a downward force on the rent in my area because I took your advice where you said, put the rent lower than the market rate so that you can attract a large bank of clients like tenants and you can, you know, get a good tenant, essentially.
22:46And I did that. I went£50 below. The place I've got has got two parking spaces, a garden. I put a dishwasher in, which I think is like a modern essential. You know, I would want to go. I can't live without a dishwasher. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I might sound a bit bougie there, but I think it's a nice to have, right? And we were against comparables that were no garden, like small garden, no parking, no dishwasher, and we were cheaper. So we just got flooded with people. And then I saw the desperation in people where they were like, we'll pay you more. We'll give you more. And I was like, we're not doing that.
23:21That's not the game because it just then becomes this kind of bidding war and that drives the prices up. I was like, that's the price. We did like 20 viewings on day one and basically had to cut it, rented it to this family, and they would have just been like, thank you so much. We didn't think we'd find a place. And I saw like, I was like, this is bad for people. It is bad. I do the same thing. I always have to push letting agents to do that because letting agents are always priced to the max. Because they take a percentage, right? Yeah. So they want it up here. No, no, I'm going to research it and I'm going to go a bit below because I want to have all that demand.
23:52But what you're seeing is effectively the same as if rents were controlled, capped, whatever, so it was below where it would naturally be, then you'd have those 20 plus viewings for every property. In your case, you had 19 people miss out. They'd still miss out in the other system as well. Last time we recorded, Tamein, you were having some real dramas with your accountant. So how's that been going, mate? They're sacked. So drama sorted. They're a big corporate firm. They didn't really reply to my emails very quickly, like took a week or two at times. And they charged me way too much. I mean, I've got pretty simple taxes.
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26:13Yeah, all of them. And this saves businesses so much time and money. According to a recent IDC study, Vanta customers save over half a million dollars a year in costs. Not bad. And they also help you complete security questionnaires up to five times faster, which is great because everybody hates filling out forms. if you're a business that needs to prove security and compliance visit vanta.com forward slash making money to sign up for a completely free demo today that's vanta.com forward slash making money there's a link in the description though so you can just click that i think it's stock home but i'm not sure where they've where they've got um rent controls and so there's basically just like not a supply so you end up with like a sort of like a secondary market of people like having all trying to like move the tendency stays the same but the person changes because there's just no way of getting in.
27:02And so I think if you do, again, it's like if you push out landlords, you'd intuitively think that everyone would move out of a rented property, they'd become the owner of that property, and nothing gets any worse. But in practice, it does. A part of it is density. So because you tend to get rental homes are more densely occupied not just hmos but you get two people sharing or you get like a a family with no spare bedrooms and all the rest of it whereas when you get people buying they want a spare bedroom they don't want a house mate yeah so you'll get so you'll get a couple will buy a three or four bedroom house that they can expand into at some point and so you end up like the the rental sector the rents get up the supply goes down in the rental sector in a way that you wouldn't intuitively expect it to and i and i also think if you if you so like i think about the governments at the minute and the council tax increases where they've said you can increase it by a maximum of five percent they're going to do that every year yeah they're going to go right to the max if you say to people you can increase rents by a maximum of x they will do that yeah because they think like it's it's it's like a it's a target you know it's like a limit it's like university fees like that that was capped they were and they hoped that people would charge less than the cap in practice no one does everyone just goes to the cap every time the cap goes up so do fees yeah yeah so i do think if you you might get this it gives the landlord's permission i think what probably needs to happen is maybe you disagree but the the government needs to buy build a load of properties that they own and then they can influence the rental price through having that big bank of properties because if i rent in an area and there's a council house that's 800 i can't rent it for a thousand they can influence the rental price through the ownership of stock right and that's why i don't get why there's no there's been no interest in that because like i say like i'm i don't think being i don't think having landlords in the mix is a bad thing i should think it should be properly properly regulated and all the rest of it i don't think it's a bad thing necessarily but i think you should have as much choice in the sector as possible so i'm all for having institutional landlords all for having a much bigger social sector i don't know why you wouldn't do that yeah especially because it's an asset on the balance sheet for the government So people talk about spending and debt.
29:12What they could do is they could build millions of homes. They then own those homes and they generate a return. And over the long term, that return increases because the rents will go up. Yeah, but why did that not happen when 30-year gilts were like nothing? They could have borrowed billions to do this, but no one's really talking about it. No, no. Even in opposition, I don't think anyone likes to hear it. We went for austerity instead. And, you know, cut, cut, cut, and 0 % interest rates. Yeah, we should have built infrastructure and houses, right? That was the time. And now it's like, well, it's going to cost you 5%.
29:41But I still think we should probably do it. So one thing on this building of homes, there was an OBR report that said, if we build the 1.5 million homes that the Labour government has targeted, the decrease in the house price that that will produce would be about a percent. It was about 0.8%. It would shave maybe a few grand off the average house price. So people are like, it's not that we need more. it's that we need to make sure that people don't have second homes and airbnbs and landlords but the amount of landlords in the market since 2016 has been decreasing every year why have prices not fallen then because it's completely different dynamics we've got the same number of rental properties today not proportion the same number as we had in 2015 and the population's like four million more than it was in 2015 so you've got this so you we should have far more rental supply in theory which is probably one of the reasons why rents have gone up um but to answer your question, I think what's often missed is that the way that rents are priced and the rent market works and the way that the house price market works are different.
30:48So we've been talking about rents in terms of supply and demand, which is quite pretty simplistic, but it kind of holds. Like if you've got more people wanting to rent, then you've got properties to rent, prices will rise unless you cap them and then there's a shortage. Pretty basic. And I think people assume that the home buying market works the same way, but it doesn't because of mortgages, because of borrowed money. So prices will always rise based on people's ability to pay. So if you suddenly magic up all these extra properties, what would probably happen is the prices of those would, unless you end up with a gigantic surplus, prices are going to rise to the point that people can afford, which is why one of the big factors of house prices going up so much over the last 20 years has been the fact that you can get mortgages, owner-occupier mortgages with smaller deposits for longer terms.
31:39More people are buying jointly. So it's done based on joint income. So you can borrow more. All these factors mean that people are borrowing more money. Then interest rates went down. So I'm like, great, now you can borrow even more. Now they're going back up again, but still. So you've got the photo because people can borrow more. Houses are naturally priced based on people's ability to pay, which is based on mortgages. And that's why I think it seems intuitive to go like oh well if you just build loads more that'll solve the problem but actually it won't unless you've got go to some extreme flooding of the market with property yeah you saw that with stamp duty and covid where they they did the cuts and the house prices just went up by basically the amount multiplied by affordability because if you say five grand you can afford 50 grand extra purchasing price because it's like 10 deposit isn't it yeah so we just saw the house price would go crazy because of the stamp duty yeah so that's why it's like that i think that that is the factor that people miss the most it's the it's the it's the borrowing point it's based on ability to pay it's if the the bank of england did a report where like they were for all the price increase in property since i think 2000 they attributed 10 of that increase to buy to let activity so not zero it's it's something but it's not the majority of it and i think you can get the impression that if you just did away with buy to let and second homes and everything else then prices would halve but that's not going to be the case are you saying and if we built two million homes it wouldn't impact prices because people would still need the ability to borrow to buy those houses yeah and i think but yeah you need to be able to borrow and if and if you can borrow then it just kind of then it just supports current prices and so price prices are just going to be like the the way to make prices fall is to cap borrowing more stringently or just or say you need you need bigger deposits you need shorter terms whatever it is that would make make it harder to buy them yeah that makes the price is that would make house prices fall but no one wants to do that no one wants to hear that like the answer is not helping you save it's make it harder for you to yeah yeah but then you've also but then it's you get into this like really you get this really awful intergenerational inequality, I can't say that.
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33:47You get this real intergenerational inequality where, because now you've got like a third of homes, I think in total are owned outright, so no mortgage. And so they're going to get passed on to kids at some point. So like, great for them. Not so great if you're not in that situation. Already, if you can get help from your parents with your deposit or whatever, that puts you in a position to buy and someone else isn't. So it's like, it just becomes more and more entrenched over time. And also because you've got all these people who benefited from this like weird blip when house prices went crazy for all these reasons we've gone through then now like politically they do not want to see house prices fall no government truly really wants to see house prices fall we are as a country far too i think over invested in property so much more so much lending goes to mortgages rather than anything productive but you're in this situation now and to get out of it is so politically and realistically painful i don't know how you do it i was about to say can we get out of it because if these people or the i guess um boomers are passing on their houses to their children those children might sell but realistically they might pass on to their children is this just how we are as a country forever or is there anything that can change it i don't know i do think that i do think we have to look at what happened in the like the 90s and 2000s as a as a a weird period so like the your price to earnings ratio went from, it doubled or did whatever it did.
35:12That doesn't mean it's going to keep happening. It doesn't mean houses are going to keep growing far above wages, inflation, anything else. I think that happened. It was for reasons. And those reasons aren't going to be repeated. So what we've seen now is over the last few years, house prices have got more affordable relative to incomes and everything else, because they've basically gone sideways when everything else has gone up. So I don't think it's going to get more and more extreme from here in terms of house price growth. I don't think we're going to see more crazy booms. But I don't know how you get from here back to there.
35:46And I don't know how you sort out the individual inequality piece. Yeah, because the political will is important, right? Because the biggest voters are the people with housing wealth and with state pensions. If you look at the activities that we protect, we protect pension purchasing power through the triple lock. We protect homeowners through, you know, not rolling out shit loads of homes to fix the supply issues or whatever, because they vote, you know. And what you do, as soon as you try to change anything, people get upset about it. Labour tried to get rid of the winter fuel allowance, which is kind of small fry in the scheme of things, the grand scheme of things, and they had to go back on it or water it down or do whatever they're doing.
36:25So imagine trying to change something massive, like we're talking about here. And the saddest thing is as well, the people that would be punished the most would be the people that just bought homes. so you know people had scrapped and scraped to get on the housing ladder would fall into negative equity if there was a big sharp correction in house prices because it's always the people who just bought right the people who've got all this equity that oh it was worth half a million now it's worth 400 grand bad but you know exactly which is why people i think people think they want to crash but they don't really want to crash because like you say it's the people who are the most who are in the most vulnerable situation because the stage they're at who get hit the most and everyone else go great i can buy now i know i can't there's no lending do you think that what we're seeing, say, in London markets and the stagnation of prices is the ideal outcome then, where we have a hopefully long-term wages increase and we just see property prices not really go crazy.
37:14And that's the happy medium where people feel like they haven't lost money, even though they have. Yeah, we've been calling it the silent property crash, because over the last few years, you have had property prices going up very slightly in nominal terms, but falling relative to everything else. So house prices in real terms are down like 15-16 % from their peak. But it's happened without any real pain. So it's like, great, if we could just have more of that. I think what we'll do, and I love giving jobs to the editor, Ben, who sat over there, we'll put on screen the house price crash chart so that we can explain that because I think people find it really hard to wrap their heads around.
37:47They go, house prices haven't crashed. But if you were just for inflation, you can see that the house prices are lower than they were a few years ago, basically in real terms, even though the nominal price has gone up. Yeah, and in RPI terms, they're the same as they were in 2013. in 2003. So that's Nationwide. What's RPIT? It's Retail Price Index. So that's a measure of inflation. So there are two measures of inflation, and that's kind of discredited now. But if you use that one, which is what Nationwide uses, they show that if you adjust for their definition of inflation, then the amount that you're paying for your house on average today is the same as it was 20 years ago.
38:26It just doesn't feel like that because the number looks really big. These days, people use CPI, which people think is a better measure. It's a bit more flattering for the people who use it to uprate things. If you use that, then I think prices are up like 20 % over 20 years, but it's still not much. It's less than people think in real terms. So yeah, I think that's a point that people find hard to grasp. I think if people understand and people do understand that if they leave money in a bank account, it can go up by one or 2 % a year. But if inflation is higher than that, they're losing money.
38:58So with your house, you've not got it in a bank account, you've just got it in bricks. It's a savings account where it's bricks. Imagine they're gold bricks, basically. And that's all that's happening now, isn't it? The inflation is eroding the purchasing power of the money that you've got sat in the bricks. Even if it's growing slightly, and the high period of inflation that we had, we didn't see house prices go up in line with that. And also if wages increase, because they get dragged up by the pressures that inflation causes, people demand more money, the argument is housing affordability could improve but yeah this is like a 10-year kind of like it's not like a quick fix it's not no one's going to come along and go there's the housing market sold today no it's a good i think the best we can hope for is just a gradual continuation of the trend that we've had for the last couple of years which isn't amazing but it's probably as good as you're going to get and it doesn't cause any significant pain there's still there is still the economics of it still work for people who want to invest but things get better for those who want to buy if you get more supply that's helpful but it doesn't completely solve the problem like we've seen i think regionally as well you need to so what i've noticed as someone who comes from up north is the stagnation of the london market is making capital leave london and go up north and that's pushing prices up a lot up north so where i bought my place uh in wigan the prices have gone up crazy amounts in a short amount of time you're talking like 10 over the period i purchased it and it's because people are flooding like the money's leaving the south and a lot of it you know is people that are like i can never buy a home where i live i'm going to buy one up north to subsidize my rent down south yeah it's like proxy ownership you know it's not they're not like a landlord per se but they are to supplement the fact that they can't afford to live where they want to live yeah exactly and so we have like you like this is i think they've all stolen my idea from like one of our first episodes i was like i want to buy up north i can't remember who he had on he's like do you want to live up north i'm like no but it's cheaper so i want to buy up north yeah so yeah i think it makes sense because when you see how much money you have to type in london it's crazy yeah so when we talk about stagnation and we relate to the south that can be detrimental to the barriers up north where it has been affordable for people potentially manchester now has become out of reach for a lot of people because investors flock to it yeah northwest is the fastest growing region of the uk for prices and rents and it's projected to be for the next five years at least as well It's because London, the South East, has kind of hit this ceiling now.
41:19And so, yeah, the money's going to go somewhere else. So it's not fair to say that prices everywhere stagnate. It's very much regional, local markets, right? Yeah, at the moment, I've never seen such a stark regional picture. It's like, if you're buying for... It used to be the case that you'd think you'd get your capital growth in the South, but you'd get your yield up North. You'd be able to, because you're paying less for the property, the rents are less, but comparatively less so. So you'd make more of a rental return in the north, but your capital return in the south. Now it's best in the north for both of those.
41:52So as an investor, you're going to go there. It's just best in the north. We're going to move on to is property investment still viable? And I think a good way into that is there's a lot of institutional noise at the minute. So you go on like property Instagram and there's a guy and he's got like piano music and he's like BlackRock are buying everything. Or Blackstone announced that they're going to invest a billion. It almost seems like conspiratorial or that people are marking it as the end of days that lawyers are going, we're going to buy everybody's house. Is that a trend that's real? Is that what we're seeing?
42:24And why are they doing that? It's a real trend. It's a trend from a low base. So I think it's like 2 % of rental properties are institutionally owned in the UK at the moment. So it's really low. So it's growing, but from a low base. why are they doing it because um i think it's because they've realized that residential has done so well relatively over the covid period like commercial has become a lot less attractive offices obviously haven't have not fed so well so you've got money coming out of that i think the reason that people have always been the institutions have always been anti-residential is like it seems like compared to having like a big shopping center where you can put 100 million in and you've got one effectively unit to manage having loads and loads of individual houses or flats seems like a pain a lot of admin yeah so they so they didn't do so and then when they first came into property it was like building blocks and so like yeah okay we've got loads of units but at least they're all in one block and now it's that the biggest growth area for institutions is suburban like individual um family homes so i think they've got their heads around that they're actually this works pretty well compared to the alternative and you've got this kind of inflation linked income attached to it because rents tend to go up in line with earnings which tend to go up in line with inflation so that's why they've they've done it i think i don't think that's a bad thing because i think like mostly they are joint venturing with developers to get these built and so and so they're not coming along and just like outbidding if everyone like everything on right move so they maybe that stock wouldn't get built if they're creating new homes yeah it's called build to rent right and they're building to rent whole housing estates is what you're saying yes so like the new build housing estates yeah so they they might take the whole thing they might take just some of it you see different models for making it work but they i think there's an argument that that's contributing to supply and it's contributing to choice so like and i think it means that individual landlords have to raise their game because the standards are higher you see it's more it is more professional it's more professionalized there are standards so like if you look at a lot of the not all because again it depends and it can be done well or badly but if you look a lot of the of the new stuff um the new houses and been inside some of the new blocks they're really well run it's like it's far more modernized it's more convenient because well they are open to they're open to longer term tenancies they want longer term tenancies because it's good for them tenant turnover is a massive hassle so that's great they tend to have um they tend to have like bills included and your wi-fi and all the rest of it so it's far more convenient and there's like there's a level of professionalism and there's a level of recourse like if something doesn't go as it should so you feel like you can like start hitting up the ceo on twitter or something about it whereas if it's an individual landlord it's much it's like i'm on holiday i'll get back to you in a month yeah exactly one thing i think people will say is the quality of new build seems pretty poor uh you know these a lot of these estates they seem to have a lot of snagging issues and people are trapped in those as well you know like yeah i don't know i think some of the worst of it has been sorted out.
45:26Having leasehold houses, which is more of a thing in the Northwest than elsewhere for some reason. I don't know why. That's been outlawed now because that just never made any sense. It was just another way to make money. A lot of the, I don't know, new builds, again, I'm not here to represent the mainstream builders, but I don't think, I think it's overdone. I think the problems with it are overdone. I think generally because building standards in general, materials and everything else have got so much better. I think new builds are for the most part pretty good um if you buy if you buy an old house it's got a lot more character but it's also got a lot more wrong with it and because parts of it are going to be 50 100 years old and all of it is old to different degrees and so there's always something coming up that needs doing so yeah there's always there's always room for more there's always room for things to be done better and higher standards but I don't think it's that bad as an investor would you buy new builds yeah yeah so you you know you put your money away mouth is you'd much rather buy a new build like brand spanking you or like 10 years old so i that's sort of the range for me so like anything built in the last 10 15 years i'm happy with it can be brand brand new or it can but as long as it's modern because as an investor you want to you want to have certainty over your costs as close as you can so you don't want something that is just like there's always something falling apart we had heavy rain on our road like a few months ago literally half the half the roofs in the road they either leaked one fell in and then the rest just we had i was joking no we had it was like a flood just cut streaming things they're all old houses yeah west london nice area but like all the houses have been there for ages so yeah like roofs were getting done like everyone everyone everyone all the neighbors come out it's your roof yeah me too on the little whatsapp group yep ceilings just come in so yeah are most of the people on your road tenants about 50 50 50 50 yeah because like it's one of those areas where people have taken big houses and chop them into flats.
47:18Exactly, yeah. There's a lot of that in London. We see that in Manchester now in areas like Cholton. Yeah. My house is converted into three flats. It's a big... We've got two floors, but it's a big house converted into three flats. Yeah, yeah. So I didn't know if it was a high propensity of tenants, but you say about 50-50. Yeah. And you've got a community spirit? Yeah, we've got a WhatsApp group. Everyone talks. It's a lovely place to live. Everyone's got loads of kids. And yeah, that's why I think we have more respect for our road because we all like each other. So if you have an institution building a building, I think like...
47:45because we all feel like we're going to be, no one's in and out. People stay on our road for a couple of years where they buy. So we all have community spirit. No one litters. Everyone's like, there's some crackhead on the road. Like, watch your cars. So like, we all communicate. Oh no, it's just tea. It's just tea and day roll on the night out. Stumbling back to tea's house. Yeah, so yeah, I think you do get the community spirit if you're there for a long time. At night, Christmas time, we all put up lights on the street. I don't, but the neighbours, I just enjoy them, but the neighbours all put up lights on the street and like, there's a real community spirit.
48:13So if you're there for a long time, I think you guys get that. Yeah, agree. Care about the area. So is it the Renters Reform Act or Bill? I can never remember which way I ran it, so they renamed it. Renters Reform. Renters Rights? Which one is it? Basically, it's this big bill or act that's moved through two governments. So it was started by the Conservatives and then the Labour kind of picked it up or were like, well, we've got to do this. Could you summarise what you think some of the key points of that are? And then can we have a talk about if this is good for tenants, landlords? So I think the biggest one, there's loads in there.
48:41the biggest one is tenancies move from being like for a fixed term to being indefinite from the start so now you'll either go in and you'll do normally a six month or a 12 month tenancy sometimes longer but that's the norm um but now it's going to be like there's none of that so you're going to move in and it'll run until you don't want it to anymore so as the tenant you can move out with two months notice i think it is um as a landlord you can only ask the tenant to move out if they have done something wrong they've so they've stopped paying the rent anti-social behavior or you want to sell it or you want to move back in those are the only reasons so the people talk about no fault evictions section 21 you're also referred to so basically the way the way it is now at the end of that 12 month term not within it but at the end of that 12 months you could just say t sorry you got to go and you haven't done anything wrong but i just want you to go for whatever reason so that's not going to be a thing anymore so there has there has to be a valid reason for it ending.
49:40So that's the most significant thing that's in there. And if they have the valeries and you stood, the landlord still has to take them to court. Sorry? Do they still have to take them to court, the landlord? This is it. Yeah, like with the new rules. Do tenants have the impetus and the means to actually take people to court? And is the court system geared up for that? It's a lot to take someone to court. It costs thousands of pounds, and you're a tenant who hasn't got loads of money, and your landlord's like, get out. You're probably like... Well, I don't know how that would work, but at that point you could go to the local authority and there'd be some kind of enforcement.
50:12So you can't just as a landlord go in and boot someone out. I'm sure it does happen, but you can't do it. Therefore, you should be able to go to the police, go to the local authority, go to someone because you just can't do that. I think landlords would argue, I'm not saying that didn't happen. Obviously, that kind of thing does happen and shouldn't happen. But I think landlords would say that it's under their argument with the new system, and even the current system, is actually like, yes, you get landlords playing the system, but you get a minority of tenants playing the system as well. So it takes about nine months at least to evict someone who's not paying the rent, for example, by the time you go through the whole process.
50:52So I think a lot of landlords would say, well, hang on a minute, why should I have to bear that? So the courts need to protect. The point of the court system is to protect against the minorities of bad actors on each side, right? In the middle, everyone just kind of does their thing. And if there was no law, it would be fine. Everyone would figure it out among themselves. So you need to protect yourself against the extremes. And so that's why I think this change that is happening is a positive one, because I think renting should be more secure and should be longer term. The argument that landlords have, which I agree with, is that the court system is not geared up for it.
51:29And so like much as you should be allowed to stay in your home for as long as you want, as long as you're holding up your side of the bargain, there should be enforcement on the other side as well. So if you're not paying, then you can't stay there anymore. But the thing is that I think people getting very upset about this change because it is removing this no-fault route. Because what happens at the moment is if you've got someone who say they stopped paying nine months into a one-year tenancy, it's quicker and easier to just wait to the end of the 12 months and then say no fault, because trying to go down the other route, which will prove that they haven't paid, takes forever and it's really hard and there's lots of ways to work it.
52:03So people are getting upset because that way, the relatively quicker way, is going away. But even the relatively quicker way is not quick even now, because the courts are so overloaded and it just takes ages and the bailiff system is overloaded as well so i think the argument is when you change it so everything effectively has to go to court because there is no no fault so under this circumstance if you stop paying your rent you always have to go to court that means that the courts are going to get even more overloaded which means it's going to take even longer so on the landlord side you could then be sitting there for 18 months two years and they're not paying rent the whole time yeah so this really heavily favors the renters and it screws the landlords well i don't i i think the law is about right but it's about the enforcement of the law they can't they can't yeah they can't back it up yeah you know they can't do the process that they need to do it should be quick it should be a couple of months you know yeah do you you have a lot of experience across a lot of units with your clients and all of the properties that you manage for them what percentage of people stop paying rent like how big a problem is it for landlords it varies a lot because again we we deliberately target the type of property where we can be the most choosy and have people who are massive massive generalization people are going to be the most secure financially so it's it's very very low i think people again people perceive that it's this massive issue because when you hear about it it sounds so bad but actually it very rarely happens i've only had one like situation ever where someone's just like in my portfolio where someone's just stopped paying a lot.
53:36Good luck, get me out. It doesn't happen often, but there'll be sectors where you see it a lot more because people are more likely to fall into situations where they can't pay. And so the rational thing for them to do is to stay put, especially because local authorities won't rehouse them until they get literally kicked out. So it's not blaming them for doing it. It's the rational thing to do. It doesn't seem fair for the landlord. Like, are you not concerned? Obviously, like you said, you've got great tenants but does it not give you a little bit of caution like wow if someone fell upon hard times they could just i couldn't get them out for there's certainly maybe two years yeah it certainly means there's more risk i think people underestimate the risk now because like i say it could still easily take you a year so if you if you own one property and you're relying on that it could ruin you yeah exactly so i think people underestimate that now i think it could easily get worse i'd like i say the system's better if you invested in the courts no problem better for everyone.
54:30But in the absence of that, I think it could get worse. So I think it just does mean that if you are getting into property as an investment, I think you need to do it seriously as an investment, which involves having contingency funds, ideally getting to a point where you've got some kind of scale. So if you've got a few properties, then at least 100 % of your income doesn't get wiped out if one person stops paying. Yeah, especially if you're an accidental landlord and you know you're just quote unquote normal people and you've moved into a house and you've got one flat left you're like oh we'll rent it out and then that becomes like this big ball around your neck financially yeah i said i just don't even think that works anymore just like the whole like having one property that you used to live in and now you're renting it out or you've inherited and you're holding on to it because you especially because of the tax situation individual owners now get taxed far more heavily than people who own properties within companies so if it's your own home you used to live in you'll obviously own it as an individual which means that if you just what it used to be the case like in our property ladder days that people would like do it like great i'll have this extra home i'll make an extra 300 pound a month in profit that'll subsidize my holidays or whatever all good that just doesn't work anymore so let's talk about the investment then because i think people would listen to that and go people don't have to pay rent for two years taxation's gone up across the way 50 all over the board 50 % of the UK hate me why why should why would anyone be a landlord you know like so can we talk about the the positives and the market as you see it and the people who should and shouldn't do this definitely um go on so I think the the biggest positive for doing it is actually nothing to do with property and everything to do with mortgages and leverage because if you if you buy a if you buy a property with cash the return that you'll get on it is probably going to be similar to you'd get in like a sort of a diversified stock market investment probably but with a lot more risk and a lot more hassle and the tax situation is far worse so why do you do that but if you if you borrow money and so then you're benefiting from appreciation in the asset over time relative to what you borrowed.
56:43So roughly speaking, if you buy a£300 ,000 property, you might need to put in£100 ,000 to do that by the time you've got your 25 % deposit plus your stamp duty with the stamp duty surcharge and all your other costs. So you put in£100 ,000 and the bank puts in£200 ,000. Then if property goes up for a decade by 3 % a year, which I don't think is like a wild assumption, it's kind of roughly in line with what you'd expect inflation to be, then after 10 years your property has gone from 300 ,000 to 400 ,000 but your debt is the same as it was on day one so all so you basically benefited you doubled your money you've got your equity gone from 100 to 200 so you benefited from 100 % of the property price growth while putting in only a third of the money effectively so because of that that just means it just makes it so compelling because it's just like it's unfair compared to other investments because for property, you can borrow large amounts of money with relative predictability.
57:41Property prices aren't volatile in the same way that stock investments are, which is why you don't generally borrow money to buy stocks if you're an individual investor. You don't get margin called as easily with a property, do you? Exactly. You would do on a stock portfolio. Yeah. So it just means, so in that example, with property prices going up 3 % a year, after a year, you've made effectively a 9 % return on your money because you've only put in a third of the cash. So you've got to get three times the three. So you've made 9 % plus whatever you get from the rent. So then that continues every year just because of inflation.
58:11So we're not talking about house prices doing anything other than the same as everything else, which is just going up in line with inflation. And we've also got, you've got your rent going up in line with inflation over time. And yeah, your costs will as well, but your mortgage won't. And that's the key, because you're harnessing this, the ability to borrow money and you're harnessing inflation, which is like the most inevitable thing there possibly is there has to be inflation the system would collapse if you ended up with the opposite of that so you get to take advantage of that yeah so the reason i started buying property but i've i've got a lot of equity like most 90 % of my net worth is is in the stock market but you know if you think that we're entering a period of potentially higher inflation it makes sense to have debt yeah and you know property debt is is what i would consider the lowest risk debt because as long as you pay in the mortgages they don't come knocking, you know?
59:01Whereas with the stock market, if it dips below a certain value, they'll be like, you've got to put more money in or we're selling it, you know? And they don't have that live pricing element in housing. Exactly. So yeah, it is attractive. And it's also, it's that feature that you've described there, which has allowed landlords to become so wealthy, especially at zero rates, right? When the mortgages were dirt cheap. Yeah. Homeowners as well, to be fair. I mean, they can, home owners can use more leverage because you can borrow 90 % or more. Yeah, yeah. So yeah, if it's gone up by£10 ,000 and you've only put 10 % in, you've doubled your money at that point.
59:33Do you think then that the long-term trend of house prices increasing in line with inflation is one that people can be certain will continue to happen? You can never be certain, but I think it's highly likely because why wouldn't it? So I do think the property price is going way above inflation increases. That was particular to a particular time, a particular set of circumstances. I don't see that happening again. but why would prices go up by less than inflation like you see it with like electronics and stuff because they get cheaper to make and all the rest of it none of that applies to property so you you don't tend to get anything deflating so the only thing that could cause it to happen is if you had either an insane increase in supply or reduction in demand which is unlikely based on everything we've talked about or if something extreme is done to sort of limit lending which i think is the only factor that would bring about a substantial decrease in prices.
1:00:29So I think it's obviously very much depends on where you buy, because you've said how the Northwest is doing well in terms of growth. London is stagnated. But as a UK average, it's hard for me to imagine why prices over the long run on average wouldn't keep up with inflation. Even in a stagnant market, then through this position of borrowing, you might, you know, like a relatively flat market, it doesn't need to be ripping at 10 % a year, which I think is what a lot of people, a lot of investors have chased. I think it's counterintuitive, isn't it? Because it's the opposite logic of home ownership where people's desire is to pay off the asset so that they own it.
1:01:06Whereas what you're saying is, never pay off the loan. You know, like maybe one day when you're like 60 and you're like, screw this, I'm just going to consolidate down my portfolio and own 10 units that are paid off or one or whatever. But you're never trying to repay that loan. No, it effectively repays itself over time because it just falls relative to the asset value, relative to the rent, relative to whatever income you're bringing in. So it pays itself down unless you want to then lever up, borrow more and go again. You're weaponizing inflation for your benefit, right? I think in the modern world, people know that this is a force that's probably not going away.
1:01:40And by borrowing, the inflation benefits the borrower. Massively. Because it decreases the value of the debt. So it's a strategy that allows you to kind of get inflation on your side a bit. Whereas everywhere else we're kind of... You're aligning yourself with the government. The government is the biggest government. Keep printing. Quadrant music, let's go, baby. On the flip side, I was at Princess Dinah, Princess Memorial Garden on the weekend with all my friends. We've got, not all my friends, you weren't there. We've got like a dad's group on WhatsApp for all my mates who've had kids. So once you've got a kid, you get to join the group.
1:02:13and they were saying like a lot of people said the time and effort and the additional costs unexpected costs that you have to put into property are crazy and that's what's surprising the most so what are some of the like um costs and drains on time that you get by getting into a buy to let i think there's there's so much of it which is why i think you need to be probably getting to some level of scale for it to be worthwhile because like the the regulation is far more than it used to be. It's not a bad thing, but it's true. And so I think you need to educate yourself so much before you even start.
1:02:47Because not only is it quite a complicated thing, but also if you're buying one, you're taking everything and putting it into one property. So you better get it right. So there's a lot of pressure there. And then once you're an owner, you've got all the obvious costs of like, you've got your repairs, you might have a service charge, you might have if it's not something catastrophic there's something and you need to be able to deal with it so i would definitely not go into it lightly because there's always going to be and that's why i prefer to buy newer stuff because there's less that can go wrong because you want to know you don't want to suddenly have to replace the roof out of nowhere because that would be a disaster and you don't want the hassle of having to do that if you could choose it you want to get as close to your kind of as close to your passive index fund investment as you can it'll never be anywhere near it just because of the way it is but you want to get as close to that as you can while still obviously keeping it up providing a good service all the rest of it and cost of like i'm not handy i'm not a diy person and i envy the people that are but the cost of repair and maintenance and even like getting people to decorate has shot up massively we were getting quotes for a thousand pound just to strip the wallpaper like a couple of days work and so i think people underestimate that they probably have you need to have a real good understanding of what the cost in modern times are for doing things yeah because for what we would consider like a light to bring it up to standard where it's nice we you know redid the kitchen doors and replaced the work talks it was all 15 years old painted the whole place tidied up the garden it was 10 grand yeah you know you want to you want to bring it up to a really nice standard so the family that move in have a nice home yeah i don't want to be scrimping and scraping on day one no there's a couple of things that help with that so one is that i think is an argument for buying more expensive properties because the costs aren't exactly the same so like getting someone to come around and tweak something with your boiler it's going to be roughly the same price regardless of the value of your house and the rent that you're charging so it pushes you that way and also but also it really helps to have a long-term perspective yeah so like the everything i talked about with leverage that doesn't play out over a year that plays over 10 20 30 years and so if you're but if you're in the game for that long that's what you're looking at it for and you're looking at your total return over that time where a lot of it is going to come from this just pure inflation effect then you're not going to be so bothered about having these extra costs here and there because like yes you need to make sure that you're not losing so much you're not losing money you're not putting yourself in in jeopardy as a result of having all these unexpected costs but it's like it happens to me now like i've got somebody who looks looks after mine going whatsapps all the time we're like we're are you paying 200 pounds for this paying 100 pounds for that and i was like yeah because it needs to be done there's no point cutting the corner and over the entirety of the investment it doesn't matter yeah yeah and i you know i want to signal to my tenant that we will do stuff straight away come to me with the problem because i think one of the biggest issues when i was a tenant as well like i would feel scared to tell the landlord yeah like i was being a hassle yeah whereas actually that just leads to bigger problems so you want to signal we will get it done just tell us you know get it done straight away because it's your investment isn't it you want to protect it yeah go on mate would you say buy to let's change then it's not would you say it's instead of being dead it's changed so people might have in the past been like oh i'm looking forward to my 300 500 quid a month that's going to be great but now you've got to be like forget i might be losing money every month i might just be breaking even or i might just make a little bit but it's the long-term view now hugely yeah i think and the the income side is an important one as well because of the tax difference that we talked about earlier, which started coming in in about 2016, 17.
1:06:29Because of that, it means that it's far more tax efficient to own as a company, for most people, to own as a company and just let the money roll up in that company rather than taking it out personally. Because if you want to get the money personally as an individual, the tax is just, if you've got another source of income, the tax is brutal. So having it as like, oh, I'm going to make a little bit of money extra every month, maybe you do make a bit of money extra every month, but you can't spend it. You can't take it out to do anything with it or the tax is horrendous. So it encourages this, own it within a company, have a long-term perspective, have a few, ideally.
1:07:05How many? I think you want to have the aspiration, not straight away, to get to three or four, just to make it worthwhile. Like an economy of scale in terms of management and risk if a tenant doesn't pay. Yeah, it makes all the upfront effort worthwhile because you should be doing way more research with property than you would do with anything else. It makes all the hassle of just dealing with it more worthwhile. You can, yeah, it spreads your risk a little bit. And it means if you start getting up to that kind of level, you can start having some systems in place to make it a bit easier. Yeah.
1:07:36So I work with a guy that works for a large company and he says, you know, my attitude of, oh, I just want to buy a good unit. I want it to look nice. I want to rent it out i'm not bothered about like you know sweating this thing massively i'll charge below market rent so i can get a good tenant he says a lot of people are coming and going i got 50 grand and i need to retire today i need to like recycle the money pull it out no money in and he's like that just leads to like really bad outcomes in terms of for the tenants and and for them whereas if you have people that have like a 20 year view like an index fund view which i think is where my view comes from that leads to better outcomes for the tenant for the person buying more realistic yeah i think property is spectacularly ill-suited to making money in the short term because you can do it like you can buy somewhere and flip it and take your money out and do it again or whatever but it's so much work it's so hard you need so much you're tying up so much cash and taking on so much risk doing that compared to other ways of getting the same kind of return but that's what social media pushes on people isn't it that kind of like brrrr or whatever no money down rent to Yeah, what's the fifth army?
1:08:45You know, they're telling me I don't need a deposit for a house. I'm like, what do you mean? It's rubbish. Yeah, it's rubbish. You don't have money for deposit. Don't worry, I'll come join my course and I'll get you on the ladder. And I'm like, what? Yeah, it's a perfect confluence of get rich quick and people are naturally attracted to property. So you put it together. Perfect storm. You can make money. It's just like Forex trading and investing, right? It's the exact same mentality of like, I can show you how to do this with no money and get really rich really quick. yeah so it's it's but for some reason people latch on to that and think that that's the majority and is it possible yeah do people do it yeah some do but most don't and it's like if it's far more i think there's so many better ways to make money in the short term than property but then for somewhere to store money and compound it over the long term because of this inflation effect and the leverage aspect i think it makes property amazing for that so what we see our clients tend to be business owners high earners people who've like who who are generating the cash somewhere else and then they're putting it into property going like well great because i can see this over 20 years this is going to do super well for me compared as maybe they invest in other things as well maybe they don't but that's completely different from somebody's going to come in and go like right i want to retire next year or like i want to replace my job it's something you hit so often i've had rich dad poor dad and now i know i need to buy all the assets in the world I got five grand.
1:10:06Yeah, it's just so you can do it, but it's so hard. So, okay, let's talk. You mentioned now about research and the depth of research people need to do. That can feel quite overwhelming. Have you got any tips or like ways that people can do that more effectively? Well, we can put together like a page of resources, maybe you can link or something because we've got a calculator, a spreadsheet that will help you calculate your returns. And we've got like hundreds or probably thousands now of podcasts and YouTube episodes. So basically all the information is out there. It's all free. It's just finding your way to the right bits at the right time and putting yourself on this self-education course and basically discounting all the hype stuff straight away and definitely not paying to go on a course for any of this stuff.
1:10:54But just like the information is all there, but you have to invest the time to learn what you need to learn, both on the investment side, but also the legislation side. Even if you're using a letting agent, you need to know what they're meant to be doing so you can see if they're doing it. And so there's a lot. I haven't really answered your question. You'll give us a link. So I'll give you a link. That's great. That kind of curates some of the best bits. Yeah, exactly. That'll get you started. I use your spreadsheet calculator thing. So can you put that there? Yeah, definitely. Because I think if you'd have answered that in one sentence, I'd have been worried.
1:11:29if you'd have gone well just do this you know yeah if it multiplies by five then that's it like you just say you need to do loads of research i think it's probably more useful if we link to resources definitely amazing thank you you said that then people with one flat like this kind of stereotypical we're moving together we've got one flat we'll rent that out you don't think that that works anymore but then you were talking about how you know if you have a long-term view don't worry too much about today can you explain like why yeah i think it's um it's mainly on the tax side So something that we see a lot is because I won't go into the mechanics of how it's all taxed.
1:12:04It's really boring and confusing. But the gist of it is if you've got an income that puts you into the higher rate tax bracket, then your property income is not treated favourably. So it's hard to make a meaningful amount of money, if anything, from just the rent. And that's what people always used to do. I think it's very common in like our parents' generation to look at it as like, great, every property is like an extra 300 quid or whatever. Now, I think that just doesn't really work anymore. So yeah, if you do hold on to a home that you used to live in, then you will have the capital growth element of that over the long term.
1:12:43But then you've also got all the risk and the hassle attached to it. So like, you've got to take like, will you make more from that with leverage than you would from investing in the stock market over the long term? Probably because of the leverage aspect. But you've also got a load tied up in a single asset. You've got all the risk, all the hassle and everything else. So you need to be convinced that it's worthwhile for you to do that. Well, I'm not saying black and white, don't do it. It never works. I'm just saying, I think it used to be the default. And now you have to think about it much more carefully.
1:13:13Even with a limited company? But you wouldn't own it in a limited company. That's the thing. Yeah, they've got to get it into the limited company, and then they've got to sell it to the limited company. So then there's a stamp duty. So they basically, to get it inside the structure that Rob thinks is beneficial, they'd pay a load of money, which probably... Which only works if you have. So you think, like, just sell it, and maybe you could set up a company with the money from the sale or something, or like a director's loan into a business if you want to go down the investment route. Yeah, you can do it.
1:13:40I mean, it's very dependent to each person's situation, because you get situations where it can work out fine, but just looking at the majority of situations that we come across and what we get people writing to us about in our Sunday Times column and stuff like that, it's mostly the case that by the time you factor in just the sheer, the cost, the hassle, the tax position, everything else, it just doesn't look that attractive. If it's still the option that you prefer for whatever reason, the one that you're going to stick with and not panic about and it makes you relax and happy and all the rest of it fine two two questions to finish off this model i'm coming back to like our landlords evil this model you know in a way relies on the tenant paying the mortgage the interest on the mortgage or whatever whilst the landlord gets to sit there and ride the gain is this whole model really just landlords extracting wealth from from renters i don't know i don't see it that way because like the way i look at that is you're you're always going to have a housing cost, whatever you do.
1:14:42So you're either renting a property from a landlord or you're renting money from the bank. So you're paying interest on your mortgage. So if you own a place, it's not all just like capital repayments. The vast majority of it at the start is interest. So I don't think it's a fair characterisation. I think it is fair to say that if you were lucky enough to have assets and to have property and be able to borrow money during that whole highly weird period when property prices were going crazy and then money was free and all the rest of it, then you will have ended up in a far better position than someone who is just coming into their 20s now.
1:15:19And that is not fair, but that's how it is. Yeah, I guess you could say, is Coca-Cola just extracting value for people because it's charging for drinks when they could just get free water? Do you know what I mean? You could say about any product ultimately, but there is a value exchange there in the sense of coca-cola gives people a drink that they want to drink yeah landlords provide housing but like you say there's this weird moral layer on top because housing is an essential that people almost think it's like the water companies isn't it people get really they think that that shouldn't be something that people make money from yeah exactly i mean there's got to be there there is a housing there's a housing service element but and then there's also just like a there's an there's an asset element it's like if you if you need it to be provided by a an if you need someone to front the money to buy the thing to take the risk so it's there to be for you to rent if you want to then there needs to be a motive for them to do that and so the only alternative to that is you is either all state provision or it's like everyone owns their home so again we're coming back to where we were at the start whereas it's like i think you could you could argue about the size of it how it's regulated what the experience is like all these things but you can't say that it's just wrong to have any kind of profit motive flat out.
1:16:34People don't really mind about the profit motives of the bank on the mortgages that they provide because they feel like that gives them an ability to buy a house. If we said banks can't make money from mortgages, no one's got a mortgage. You need 100 % to buy your house every time. Exactly. But if you look at the mechanics of that, it's like they've just magicked up the money out of nowhere to lend it to you. And they're making your own money. Then they get bailed out of it. It all goes wrong. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you want to talk morality. They're magic money machines and stuff. Okay, and then finally, is buy to let dead?
1:17:03I think in some situations, yes, but in general, no. And we've talked about some of the situations. I think it's definitely harder than it used to be. And there are some situations where it just doesn't work. But the model that I use that we talk about a lot, that still very much works. And so buy to let is not dead, but it's less dominant than it used to be. is less attractive than it used to be, especially in the short term. And I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing.
1:17:39Go on, NT, what do you think about that one? A little bit daunting trying to get into the property market, isn't it? Like you've got a lot of factors you've got to take into account. You were just going to be like, like that one, I'll take it. Yeah, exactly. I like that one. How much? Yeah, it is a lot of work, a lot of research. It's a big decision, isn't it? I'll tell you what, we'll link below everything that Rob said he would provide us. I think there was a calculator and a load of other resources to educate yourself and help you make a good decision before you jump in. Whether you think it's moral or not is a whole other thing.
1:18:06Evil landlords like they, man. Yeah, yeah, I'm going to be selling.
1:18:12Please remember, this is not financial advice. Like we say a lot on the podcast, investments can fall and rise. In fact, it's pretty much a guarantee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. So your money is at risk with investing and other fees may apply. As with everything financial, please do your own research. We really encourage that because no one cares more about your money than you. I'm Damo. Fanti. This was an episode of Making Money from Our Company Most. It was filmed and edited by the team at Flow Spire, Jack and Ben. It was produced by Ruth Edwards and brought together by Will Stollerman.
1:18:42What about Ruth and Toothless a Dog? Yeah, shout out them too.
From the publisher
Is buy-to-let dead in the UK - and should it be? Rob Dix, one of the founders of Property Hub and both a landlord and tenant, breaks down how various factors have reshaped the market. With landlord numbers falling and returns fading, what role should property play in the UK’s — and investors’ — future?
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This is not financial advice. The reason it’s not financial advice is because it’s not tailored to you. We explain the principles of building wealth but if you want personalised advice, it’s worth speaking to a financial advisor. As with everything financial, please do your own research. We really encourage that because no one cares more about your money than you and if you learn the basics then it will change your life.
