In short
Making Money Podcast: Episode Summary
Episode Title
What Will the World Look Like in 2050? Host: Damien Jordan and Timeyin Akerele Guest: Hamish McRae, Economics Columnist and Author of *The World in 2050: How to Think About the Future*
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Overview
In this episode, the hosts, Damien and Timeyin, engage with Hamish McRae to explore predictions for the world in 2050, discussing economic forecasts, geopolitical shifts, technology's impact, and the evolving landscape of personal finance.
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Key Themes and Discussions
- Future Economic Landscape
- US vs. China/India:
- Discussion on whether the US will maintain its status as the world's largest economy or if it will be surpassed by China or India.
- Predictions suggest that while China may rise, it could also experience a significant downturn due to demographic challenges.
- The Role of Technology
- AI and Aging Population:
- AI may help address challenges associated with aging populations by improving efficiency in various sectors.
- McRae highlights the transformative potential of AI in enhancing productivity, particularly in service industries.
- The Process of Making Predictions
- Framework for Analysis:
- McRae emphasizes the importance of a framework for thinking about future trends rather than definitive predictions.
- He discusses the necessity of adjusting predictions as new data emerges.
- Demographic Changes
- Population Trends:
- Global population growth may halt within 15 years, with significant implications for economies.
- China is facing a declining birth rate, which could lead to economic challenges.
- Financial Predictions
- Investment Strategies:
- Recommendations for diversified investments in global equities, property, and potentially cryptocurrencies.
- Importance of compound interest and long-term investment strategies is emphasized.
- Political Climate
- Global Tensions:
- Potential geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China, and the implications for global stability.
- The discussion includes the rise of populism and its influence on political systems.
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Key Takeaways
- Preparation for Change: Understanding that the future is unpredictable and preparing for various scenarios is crucial for financial planning.
- Role of Technology in Economics: Technology, particularly AI, is expected to significantly alter productivity and service efficiencies.
- Demographics Matter: The aging population and declining birth rates in key economies (like China) could reshape global economic power dynamics.
- Investment Philosophy: A balanced and diversified investment strategy that includes global equities and alternative assets can mitigate risk.
- Long-Term Outlook: Despite potential downturns and challenges, the general sentiment is one of cautious optimism regarding economic recovery and growth.
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Conclusion
The podcast episode provides a multifaceted view of the future, combining economic insights with technological advancements and geopolitical considerations. It encourages listeners to think critically about the forces shaping our world and to prepare financially for the uncertainties ahead.
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Contact Information For further inquiries or assistance with personal finance, contact: makingmoney@getmost.co.uk
Sponsors
- MoneyWeek Magazine
- TaxZap
- Vanta
- Odoo
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Note This summary reflects insights from the episode and should not be construed as financial advice. For personalized advice, consulting a financial advisor is recommended.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01You know what I love, Damo? Things that save me time. You don't have YouTube premium, mate, so I just don't believe that. Granted, I'll give you that one. However, I've got one for you. A great time saver in personal finance is Money Week magazine. They spend a lot of time distilling the biggest stories in personal finance down into consumable chunks, so you don't have to scroll and scroll. They give practical tips on savings, investments, pensions, the UK economy, the global economy. It's like your five a day, but for finance. If you want to give Money Week a try, you can get six issues in print and the app absolutely free by visiting moneyweek.com forward slash money.
0:34After your trial, you'll save an extra£5 a quarter on the subscription, which is exclusive to Making Money listeners. And that's moneyweek.com forward slash money. But there's a link in the description if you just want to click that.
0:49The world's population may stop growing in about 15 years' time. Hamish McRae is an economics columnist for The Eye and Mail on Sunday. And he's also the author of The World in 2050, how to think about the future. While we might look back at how asset prices have changed over the past 100 years, what trends can we expect in the future? Will the US remain the largest economy or will China or India take the lead? Will AI solve the problems of an aging population? What will this world of ours look like in 25 years time? It's almost an easy prediction to make, isn't it? It's like there will be a crash or there will be a crash.
1:23Yeah, but I can give you a four-year window, 28 to 32. Why should people take predictions about the future seriously? When you realise the amount of junk that's been written and how predictions are spectacularly wrong, look, you know, I think that most people don't take them very seriously. I see myself as a tour guide. We're all on this journey into the future and we can't get off it. I mean, the only way to get off it is to, is very disagreeable, you know, so you've got to go on. And I have a couple of advantages over people. I've done it before in that I wrote a book about the now 25 years ago.
2:10And I can see what mistakes I made and the things I got right. And I learned a bit more about the process of doing it then. But, of course, we're on this tour guide together. And I'm very conscious that everybody on that tour will know more about some aspect of the world than I could ever possibly know. You know, they're a computer scientist. They will know. And so what I say is, look, come along. If you see something that you disagree with, that's great. Because what I'm not trying to do is to tell you exactly what will happen. I'll give you my own best cut of what happens. But what I'm trying to do is to take you through the process of thinking about the future.
2:56How do you think about it? How do you keep on changing your mind as new information comes along? And if you say, OK, McRae, what did you get right 25 years ago? Well, I got a couple of things right. I got Brexit right. I predicted it was quite likely that we'd be out of the EU by 2020. 2020, I got populism in America right. Trumpism, I didn't know it'd be Trump, of course, but I could see some kind of rebellion against the liberal elite. And I don't think I'm particularly clear, but it must have been evident in the early 90s that that would happen. And I did at least have half a page about a pandemic.
3:35So there was a bit. The things that I got wrong, and this is also helpful to read. You've got to be honest with your readers. I managed to write a book in the early 90s without mentioning the word the internet. Now, my defense is that though it existed, there were no browsers, there were no search engines. The browser just coming in, the very first one. I could see the computers being linked, but I couldn't see how. And so anyway, That was the process. So I say to people, don't take what I say as what will happen. Use this process to keep thinking about the way the future may unfold. And you will be better placed to shape your lives because we all make implicit assumptions about the future.
4:27You buy a house, we make an assumption about what will happen to house prices, what will happen to interest rates. Let's try and do this in a more orderly logical way. So when things come along and change, then you're prepared for it. What is that process then? Because you've spoken about geopolitics there. You've spoken about technology, pandemics. There's a lot of expertise. A lot of stuff. Yeah. How can you possibly make predictions about that? And how can someone else kind of adopt some of that process? I'm an economist. There is a fair amount of economic work going on about predicting growth.
5:04So if you can see the rough size very, very broadly of different economies in the world 25 years ahead, you have a basic intellectual framework. That then affects politics. So the best example I can give is, does China become the world's largest economy at some stage in 15 years' time? Because if it did, it does. That has profound implications for the United States and indeed for Europe and indeed for the rest of the world. Do they look to China or do they look to America? And we can see now two broad blocs emerging in the world, the West and the rest. and so that tells you one that gives you one building block which has political implications um and by the way i think china won't pass the u.s in ties ever i've changed my mind uh since that book was written because the data has come through the new data has come through and and i think it's changed and i think and i can't remember whether i i've suggested it this may not happen in the paper.
6:17It didn't change much in the paper, but it's not fair to readers. So that gives you an example of something where you just, as the data comes in, you think, wait a minute, that isn't going to happen. What looked likely now looks unlikely. And that changes geopolitics, of course. Yeah. Because you said that, you thought in the book, you said that America would decline for a bit and China would take over and then America might come back. Exactly. So now how do you feel? Well, exactly. I think now China will fade earlier. I thought China would probably start fading in 2050 or whatever. I think it's probably already started to fade.
6:53It doesn't know it yet. Or it's hiding it. What? Or it's hiding it through the manipulation of data, maybe. I think it doesn't merit. I think the arrogance and drive is still there in the leadership, though not in the people. And the reason for this, one prime reason, which is a very important building block for the future, is population growth. You know, China's population may fall much faster than they think. Have you been to Shanghai? Yes. Well, you know, nothing prepares you for your first visit to Shanghai. It's mental. It just blows your mind. But, but, but, but, but, but. Did you know that the birth fertility rate in China is about 0.8 babies per month?
7:38So the population will start cascading down, already is. I have friends there, you know, have one child. They're lucky. A lot of people don't. Yeah, you speak of this, you know, like the youthful exuberance is being replaced by like a middling, ageing population, right? And then the challenges that that brings with it. And that's a big call I make in the book, that China will have some sort of discontinuity in the 2030s. And what will that be? I don't know. It may be a change within the party, but it will start to turn inwards. Xi Jinping dying maybe might be that catalyst. Well, that could be it.
8:24He could be deposed. There could be a revolution. I mean, the big question is, does the change happen within the party or is the party, which will have had only 100 years old or so, which in Chinese history is nothing, is that it's over? Is there a new dynasty begins? So, you know, you can't see any of this. But what I think you can see, and I make this call, is that at some stage, probably in the 2030s, China will stop looking out and start to look in. And by the way, the Chinese wanted to publish the book. But if they published it, they would want to either excise or have the chapters on China partly rewritten.
9:09Yeah, of course. And that's a road down which... The CCP is great. I can't go. I predict that there's great things for the CCP. Exactly. I'd have loved to have done it. In fact, it came out in Taiwan instead. And you mentioned in the book that you think that China are going to invade, there will be disputes with China and Taiwan. I think the disputes go on. The question, do they invade? And we don't know. I mean, it may be that Russia's experience in Ukraine has inoculated them against it. You know, we don't know. I think the balance of probabilities, they won't. But I'm not a China expert. Come back to the process.
9:50There was something in the book that made me think about predictions, where you said, we are still flying around in planes today that were made in the 90s. So I can safely say that by 2040, 50, we're probably going to still be flying around in planes today. There's elements of prediction like that that are easier to make than others, aren't there? So what areas of prediction can you say, We can be really confident about that sort of prediction, but this right here is a guess, you know. Physics don't change. And an aircraft now is at, civil aviation is brilliant, but it is at the limits of physics because if you go supersonic, your cost just whizz out of it.
10:31You do it. You do rockets. But that particular thing doesn't work financially. Physics don't. And I did put in a little note somewhere just acknowledging that there may be another physics out there. Okay. New science. Let's assume it isn't. There may be something else there that we just don't know about. Outer space, whatever. But let's assume the physics we've got will stick for another 25, 30 years. So that's fairly easy to say that we will still be driving around in the cars we've got now. Okay, so they have electric engines. And that's been transformed by one person, Musk. That's easy. What is very difficult is to see how high tech changes and how electronics changes.
11:30and my best example of this is the iPhone. You know, it's only, what is it, it's less than 20 years ago that Steve Jobs came out in that famous video holding it up sometime, sometime, every now and again, something comes along that changes everything and holding it. But even he could not foresee the changes that would take place. If you think of the early 2000, 20 years ago, there was the knocker communicator. There were mobile phones, but there were no apps, or the apps were – Facebook was still in its infancy. It was a desktop thing. And so I think getting technology right is really, really difficult.
12:23And there's actually a very good example between the hardback and the paperback, which was chat GPT. AI was known about and was all happening, but it was not really useful. People were fiddling around with it until chat GPT came along. And that happened in November, six months after the power. And what I just acknowledged in my thing is this may be the technology that really does change everything. And I'm a huge bull for it because I think it does, as an economist, it does for services what the moving production line did for manufacturing. It enables huge improvements in quality and huge decreases in cost.
13:16And that's the holy grail. It's like the leverage it gives people in terms of like speed. I mean, all I have to ask myself is, am I using it more and more every day? And the answer is yes. Of course you aren't. I'm moving away from research. And this is something that did not exist 18 months or two years ago. Yeah, and it's getting better. And it's getting better. So as someone who stood on the precipice of the internet and missed it, how are you looking at AI and going, where is that going to go? Well, I'm just a total ball. I just think it will enable us to step back a second. manufacturing is between 10 % and 20 % of the output of a developed country.
13:53I mean, Germany, Japan, towards the top end, UK, France, US towards the bottom end. You can improve that. You can make a better BMW. Tesla is the better. You can prove that. And you can make it more automated. That's all brilliant. But you're only working on 20 % or less of the economy. To get people richer, you've got to work on the 80 % that is services. And services have not improved in the same way as goods have. And it's very difficult, you know, to improve the productivity of the health service, improve productivity of the public sector more generally, improve the productivity of... Banking has improved a bit, but services are really, really difficult to improve.
14:46And AI is the magic tool that comes along that enables someone who is, you know, okay, well-trained, but able to do their job much, much better. Yeah. And it's affecting you. It's affecting me. I'm dithering at the edges. But I'm wondering how I can actually do things better as a result. A nurse could go, I've got these patients with these illnesses and these things tell me how to serve. And it goes, you go here first, there first, next. And, you know, like these little bits of efficiency that it creates. Exactly. You've got it. Exactly right. And we will learn, we'll take 20 years to learn how to do this.
15:27And we'll have to take another 20 years probably putting in safeguards because that's what you have to do. The analogy there is, you know, the motor car. Did you know that in 1939, before the Second World War, there were about 10 times the deaths on the roads in Britain than there are now from motor traffic. And yet there's been this... And the reason is, you know, they invented driving tests. They invented seatbelts. Seatbelts, yeah. And we've got to have seatbelts, you know, for AI. People fought them, didn't they? It was Volvo, maybe, who bought them in. And people were like, you can't tell me what to do.
16:03I'm not wearing that thing. I'll go through the windscreen. Do you think it would take 20 years for us to put safeguards and things in AI? because with the internet, it didn't take us 20 years to really use it properly. A good question. It's taken us quite a while to put in safeguards for social media. Yeah, they're probably still not there. Yeah, they're not there yet. They're not there yet. Just to take the internet seriously is actually real life. We still think of it as like, no, it's not real. Revenge porn, as an example. Protecting kids from screens, you know, trying to get some sort of order into politics.
16:39So, you know, if people lie on the internet, you know, there's some way of countering that lie. And I don't mean little lies. I mean big ones. I think it moves so quick that the regulators are so slow as well. You know, they're still like, what is a large language model or whatever? Whereas this, you know, it's already moving well ahead, isn't it? Yeah. Like the copyright debate and things. And this relates back to this timing of control of AI. I don't believe the stuff that it'll end humankind. You can get a headline if you say something about humankind. We just clipped that. End humankind AI.
17:19Yeah, we got it. Thank you very much. But you know what I mean? It's a good headline. But I do believe that it'll take quite a long time to learn. Because we don't know what he can do. So we can't govern it and regulate until we know what he can do. It'll be a continuing process. On your process, you have, well, through the book, you talk about like the five forces of change, you call them. Can we outline what they are and, you know, what each does? Well, you start with demography. Yeah. How many people are you going to have and where are they going to be? And until recently, it was fairly clear what was happening.
17:55And that's why demography has become absolutely fascinating at the moment post-COVID, because birth rates plunged and have stayed down. And I even saw a statistic, which is not in the book at all, just a few months ago, that the world's population may stop growing in about 15 years' time. Now, I don't think that's going to happen. But if you know how many people you're going to have in the world or in different countries, and if you know roughly how old they'll be, then you can start to do a building block of what will happen to the economy. Because if you haven't got so many people, the economy is going to get smaller.
18:38If you have a big influx of people, you know, from migration and so on, it will get larger. So that's the sort of, that's one of your big building blocks. Another building block is the environment. Profound concern. and we've gone from there being lots of concerns, you know, urban pollution sort of is gradually getting better to being one huge humdinger of one, which is climate change. Yeah, it was always like the hole in the ozone and all these little things and now it's just like, no, global warming. I worry, actually, some of them we should be worrying about too. Are the symptoms of the main thing?
19:18But global warming, I mean, climate change is the big one. Yeah, yeah. And then you start to make decisions about that or assumptions. Will we be towards the top end of the projected global warming thing? If so, what will we do about it? Will we panic? How does technology help? Are there technological advances out there that we don't yet know about? And I don't mean, you know, windmills. I mean, something that actually we can't at the moment envisage that could radically slow global warming. And we don't know. So those are the sorts of questions that, again, are very important building blocks.
20:05And another building block is what will happen to globalization. Club to trade and finance, has globalisation has stalled in terms of proportion of stuff shift around relative to total world GDP. Will trade wars plunge us into something really troubling and make people poorer as a result? Finance, will we lose control of the dollar? what will be the role of crypto? So those, again, questions that we have to try and at least put forward. And I give some views and I try and give a, but again, I'm trying to give a framework for thinking about it. And if you say to me, McRae, okay, do you believe Bitcoin is worth$100 ,000?
20:57The answer is no, I think it's worth nothing. But it doesn't matter. If you want to pay that, then that's fine by me. It's a bit like buying a vintage Lamborghini for a quarter of a million. There are other building blocks. There's democracy itself. What happens to politics? Do we lose democracy? Globally? Because in the book you're talking about America, but you think it's a risk. I mean, if we lose it there, they're kind of like... If we lose in America, we're done for. They're the police, aren't they, that uphold democracy, the army. They are. They're like the enforcers of democracy. I know.
21:37Well, and there are lots of countries that are run by the army of Pakistan. Yeah. So I think there are these building blocks that give you a hand. And I try and go through each and explain what I think is most likely to happen, what the issues are. And I try and give some views. But again, keep coming back to this. my views are not important they're a framework to test your own views as a reader so okay he's wrong there well that's great you know it's fine you're wrong I may be right you may be right I think I'm right but you have to think you're right you can't do it if you don't but you have to acknowledge you will always inevitably be wrong about something it's a nice way of like making sure in 20 years time you're at you I don't look at total ass I won't be around in 25 years' time.
22:32It's a framework. That's the other thing, by the way. Why do you write a book about a world that you will not be alive in? Well, I don't know. I mean, get to the singularity, let AI figure it out, and then we'll all live forever. That's what I'm banking on anyway. So buy that one. Yeah. Okay. So let's look at some of these predictions then. I want to look at the UK because you probably have one of the most optimistic outlooks of the UK that I've read in a while. Yeah. But the way that you deliver the growth in the UK is probably in contradiction to what the political narrative is right now. Does that make sense?
23:05Yeah, I mean, look, anybody who's lived through the 1970s in Britain, and in the early 80s, early to the 70s, you know what despair looks like. and you know I remember I was doing the Guardian job business editor of the Guardian in the 70s and you know I remember going in and talking to a senior civil servant and he was white with fear he said if we don't get this IMF loan we're totally fucked we've got money to pay about a month's imports If we don't get the loan and build the confidence that comes with it, we can't pay for our food. You know, now we're nothing like that now. The politicians were faffing around.
24:04In the end, Callaghan swung behind Healy and we got the loan. And then everything turned, flipped quite fast. And by the way, did you know that the first privatization happened under Labour, not under the Tories? It was Dennis Healy selling off BP, the government's share of the US. So there's a continuity in politics, which I think politicians don't like to recognize. So if you know despair and you saw the turnaround, bumpy turnaround, not well done, but had to be done, you can see it's nothing like as bad as that now. What is competitive advantage in the world? You look at what we can do. Good high-tech manufacturing, small, but good.
24:56Decent craft industries, small, but good.
25:05Manufacturing will not need to get any smaller, or at least not significantly so. What we've got is good. Not perfect, but good. You look then at the strengths and services. second largest exporter of services in the world after America. By the huge margin, no one else is near. And that's not just banking and finance. It's legal services, unfortunately. It's education. We regard it as normal. Four, five or six, depending on how you measure it, three or four of the top ten universities in the world are British. those countries would give their high teeth to have one in the top 20. The top one in the Eurozone, I think, comes in in the 40s.
25:59You may say, okay, these measures are not very good, but you've got to take the lead tables you've got. Now, that's a huge magnet.
26:10we also have relatively strong population prospects from immigration. This is a place people want to immigrate into. Where do you go? You're a really bright Nigerian. I am, thank you. Are you really? Appreciate you, thanks. See, we need more guests like this to just say it how it is. Just speak to the audience about me. I like that. I guess you were somewhere, maybe south of Sahara, but maybe you're way back. I guess you're really good. Where else do you go? You should have made a veil. North of the river. West London. Where else do you go, though? You know, I mean, you can go to America, but it's difficult.
26:53It's difficult. Difficult to get in. Quite tough when you're there. I mean, you can go to Germany if you're Turkish, and you may do very well there. but but so i think coming back to the point one of the great ballpoints of this country is we are a magnet for clever people clever talented hard-working people and let's hope we stay so i think we probably will um and i know there are social tensions we're going to deal with we have we dealt with them sort of well you have a better perspective than i've dealt with them sort of okay but not nearly well enough we could do better so i think that's another ballpoint last time we recorded to me and you were having some real dramas with your accountant so how's that been going mate they're sacked so drama sorted um they're a big corporate firm um they didn't really reply to my emails very quickly like took a week or two at times um and they charged me way too much i mean i've got pretty simple taxes and yeah they were charging me thousands they saved me some money but yeah um i had to move on slow and expensive pretty much yeah this is one of the reasons that we're really happy to be partnering with tax app It's a tech platform that makes self-assessment simple.
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29:58That's vanta.com forward slash making money. There's a link in the description though, so you can just click that. The problem is that immigration is seen as a negative thing by many people. And I think the politicians serve that narrative because it helps them, right? Win votes. I think it's perfectly reasonable for any country to choose who it wants. The type of immigrants, yes. It wants to have talented people who will work hard. There's a little worry there, by the way. Are we denuding, wrong word, taking too many talented people from the emerging world? But it's their choice. And money gets sent back.
30:39Did you know, and I discovered a new fact just the other day. Did you know the largest single source of funds from the developed world to the emerging world is not official aid. That's tiny. It's not foreign direct investment, quite big, not portfolio investment. The largest single source, but half the total, is immigrants remittances. Western Union, isn't it? And also, yeah, lots of – there's a whole business on remittance. There's so many different companies like Western Union. It's huge. Just literally posting cash back, basically. It's huge. Anyway, so, and not only does the money go back, skills go back, you know.
31:15Okay, so it's building a house, but that's a house that doesn't require local savings to build. So, yeah. So I think it's possible to manage migration well. You want people who want to be honest about it. You want people to come and work. You want people who you can create good lives for their families. because you don't want people who come and beat us up. You know, like the jobs we need is the point. Because high skill, people say, oh, bring all the engineers here. But actually, we might need care workers or we might need whatever. And I think if the politicians came out and said, here's the list of jobs that we need.
31:55If you want one of these jobs, come and get them. If not, we're going to go and get some people that can do them because otherwise no one's going to look after you down in a care home. That's exactly what I think too. Politicians need to be honest. Give the data. Give people the data and then people make up their own minds. You said that the UK kind of needs to change how it thinks about itself. So what do you mean by that? And how do you think we think about ourselves now? And where do you think we need to go to improve? So look, I think we don't acknowledge our strengths. We have this thing about private schools, which, well, I went to one.
32:33So you could say I would say that. but I was brought up in Ireland and my parents saved every penny they could have to send me a private school. And by the way, that's another thing. If you come to this country with the clothes, I was born here, if you come to this country with the clothes you stand up in, you know, as I did when I was 22, you know, you think it might be all right. They'll give you some opportunities. And I therefore feel grateful to the country for having been given this opportunity. I had a British passport but I hadn't actually been here much until I was hardly at all, until I was 22.
33:08So there. I think we just need to see ourselves not in some sort of stupid post-imperial place or feeling upset about our past. We've done some bad things, done some good things, you know. That says everyone, every country in the world. I think we should just recognise ourselves in what we are, a really interesting place, trying to do the right thing most of the time, and an integral part of the Anglosphere, led by America. We shouldn't have any ideas that we are special to America. We're not at all. Not the special relationship, you mean? No. But we're useful to them, and it'll be transactional, and that's fine.
33:57You know, if they want something from us, we find out what we want from them. It's fine. Who were in the Anglosphere? Oh, gosh. Well, there's two Anglospheres. Okay. There's the narrow Anglosphere, which is us, led by America, us, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. And then there's the wider one, which is Singapore, Scandinavia. English. Very, very importantly, Nigeria and much of Africa. There's India. The Indian subcontinent, actually, is associated with the Anglosphere. And there are other countries which are part of the Commonwealth, which English was more recent additions to it, which are, in a sense, associate members of the Anglican.
34:56But it's a loose concept. It's people who use English and look at the same films and enjoy the fact that wherever they go in the world, there is someone probably who can understand them. I think we should think of the English-speaking world as something special. And I think it will...
35:20there is no we have different aims different prospects different political systems I mean US Australia Canada New Zealand you know we're different but actually if you look at where the people want to migrate to the earlier point it's actually within the English speaking world I was just going to say But in the Anglosphere, do you think that it's your prediction for the future that we start working closer together with the other English-speaking countries? Where it suits us and where it suits them. No formal agreement. Nothing specific. On the other hand, on a sort of ad hoc basis, we get together and say, look, we've got to get together.
36:09and as it was with AUKUS, you know, if Australia wanted nuclear submarines, you know, well, you know, we're American, we've got them and we can help you get them. Is that the kind of collaboration? Can you think of any other ways that you might think these are ways that the Anglosphere could collaborate? I don't think we should try and make it specific. I don't think we need to. I don't think we should have any ambition for it. And the wider Anglosphere, by the way, with the Commonwealth, we should have no ambitions at all, except that actually maybe we should fast-track top-end Indian graduates to come here and work here because actually a closer relationship with Indian high-tech industry would be to our advantage and indeed to theirs.
37:02So that's something that we can perhaps work to. So it's ad hoc. And there's no sentiment. It's just the fact that you talk the same language and most of the time think very broadly in the same way. In the world's largest democracy, India, you know, speaks English. Yeah, and in a world where China is, people are unsure, India has a lot of the same characteristics in terms of a large population base and these kind of things. And that, by the way, raises another really interesting thing. And this is, you know, the pecking order of one, two, three in 2050. We know who the three are. It'll be the US, it'll be China, it'll be India.
37:50I'm not totally sure of the order. I mean, I think, and this is really new, I mean, not in the book at all. I think it's not totally impossible that India could be a larger economy than China by 2050, not 2050, 2070, because China population going down so fast. You said they might have some border disputes. Well, you're absolutely right. That's a good book. They don't get along with each other very well on the eastern border. You're absolutely right. One thing that I found really interesting from the book was you pointing out that actually this idea that the West is the superior part of the world or that it's quite new.
38:29And actually it's bookmarked by Asian dominance. We've always lived in a kind of an Asian world. And, you know, we've emerged for 100 years and we might revert back to that. I think we go some way back to that inevitably. I really do. and that, I hope, counters a bit of our arrogance, actually. Do you think the West is arrogant then? Yeah. Yeah. I don't like it. But do you think the UK has a right to be arrogant? Because we're like a small little island and like you said, we've got the Anglosphere and we've got such impact in the world and we have the whole British Empire. Isn't it, for such a small nation...
39:09You're only as good as your last game, mate. You can't be saying that. If we were American, we did what we'd done. We'd be like, okay, we expected you to. You're huge. But like Little Island, you know, we turn out a lot of doctors. We've got good universities and all these things. My answer to this is the journalist one. You're only as good as your last story, you know. We're very lucky. We're in a very lucky position, but we just need to lift our game. We need to be honest about the things we're not very good at. I don't think we're good enough at the things we're – I don't think we're honest enough at the things we're not good at.
39:40Yeah. And we need to do that too. Who needs to be honest? Politicians, do you think? Is that where that comes from? Oh, gosh. I think the press needs to be honest. Good luck with that. You've got a lot more chance of the politicians being honest in the press. Yeah. I think it starts with politics. And I don't like the partisan nature of politics at all. We've seen the stupidity of partisan nature in the past few months. A new government comes in, says everything is terrible. Actually, some things were not very good and some things were okay, but everybody only said the terrible bits. So then you suddenly, everyone says, oh, Christ, it's awful.
40:26So you're not confident. That's not very clever. You need to be honest. Some things are good, some things are bad. Do you think politicians are less honest today than they were in the past? no i mean not much when we talk about america um yeah sure it's not great uh but you look at the periods of the past of american politics and they've been pretty pretty run presidents they've had in the past you know so what why what changes within that system then to improve it if they're always just dishonest all systems go to swing too far uh and the liberal elite in america swung too far uh and it just got detached from what ordinary people thought um trump was created by the arrogance of the american liberal elite created the space for him to come in from time one.
41:30He behaved appallingly after the election. People said, look, we'd rather have that than the snootiness of the liberal elite. We'd rather have that. We'd rather have people, you know, and we all behave a bit badly at times. So it will pull back. I really am. I'm really confident about America. What about the UK? Do you think the UK has a bit of swings? Well, look, we've had a very difficult time. We had the difficult decision of the split over Europe. We had one prime minister who couldn't do the job. Some might argue we had more than one prime minister who couldn't do it. I was going to say which one.
42:12We had one prime minister. We had the trust episode. We spectacularly couldn't do the job. Got rid of him in less than two months. I mean, that's not bad. So the system held together.
42:27we had one lot that ran out of ideas and we have the other lot in you know the system is is more or less working okay and this lot doesn't work then they'll be got rid of and we have something else i want to talk about another system then i want to talk about finances and the threats there because i think it's hyper relevant to the audience if i sit here now and i say like what of the big concerns on the horizon. One thing for me would be pensions and pension savings and a shift away from defined benefit schemes to auto-enrollment. Is it enough? Have people got enough? And there's a generation of 40, 50-year-olds who have not got either benefit and what are they going to do?
43:07So what do you think your predictions are for people's retirements leading up to 2050? Well, can I just say, first of all, I think what you're doing, focusing on all this, is great. Thank you. I really do. I think what the newspapers do in their personal finance sections is pretty darn good, too. I just think we just need much more education of everybody. You know, and the thing that really bugs me is people saying, well, I can't be bothered with pensions. You know. They're a scam. I hear that a lot. I mean, that's a hangover from probably when you were, like, in the 90s or 80s. When was it? The raiding on corporate pensions and BHS, was it?
43:57Robert Maxwell didn't help much matters either. No, I know. So by the 2050, we'll be pushing, currently we'll be at state pension age. We won't be by then, but we would certainly be within shot of going, okay, state pension. Yeah. So do you think it'll exist? I think state pension continues. I think you can fix it quite well by pushing up the retirement age. And not just the official retirement age, but getting more and more 50-somethings who are thinking of retiring early to keeping them in the workforce. And that's a longevity thing. And there's a lot of work going on about this. You'd be closer to this probably than I am.
44:43Just making sure that people don't fall out of the workforce, have the skills, have the attitudes. And, you know, a 55-year, why should I change? Well, you know, because you will be healthier if you change a bit and have a job. Yeah. You'll be healthy. You'll certainly be wealthier, but you'll also be healthier. You'll have more interest in better of your general views. So I think that that's something that will be a lot of work to go on. And the actual maths are if we manage to push up the state retirement age, another two or three years, along with longevity, then actually all the numbers start to look much more manageable.
45:27Yeah, the people in their 50s that are economically inactive, what you start to then get into is social care, health care. As in like, if you're needing to leave work to look after your parents because it's so expensive to put me in a care home, you've got to fix that problem, haven't you? You've got to make it more affordable to care for people, essentially. Absolutely. Absolutely. It's more affordable care and ways of helping people make decisions that are better both in social and human terms than not just financial terms. Yeah, absolutely. So in terms of finances, then, what about forecast for the market?
46:00Are you willing to sit here and predict where the market will be in 2050? Not financial advice, people.
46:10Well, we know a lot about what's happened to asset prices in the past. We know the returns you get on equities in different markets. We know the returns from property. We know the returns from fixed interest securities and so on. And we've got a run that goes back over 100 years. One of the runs goes back, oh gosh, the old BZW one, Barclays one, goes back I think 150 years. So we know a lot about what happens to asset prices. And we know that through world wars, through the depression of the 30s, through the great inflation of the 70s, through the zero interest rate stuff that we've had. We know a lot about it.
47:04And we know that if you save, the magic of compound interest will, over a 40-year period or a 50-year period, mean that you get a positive return on those savings in real terms. And you can then say, okay, how do you slice it? And I don't know what your view is, but my view is that you don't put all your eggs in one basket.
47:41The best marker, the most positive thing is global equities. Told you, mate. Damo's doing a little internal dance right now. He loves his... Well, just because the S &P's been so dominant, right? But it's eggs in a basket and there's no guarantee. And then you could have a debate. You know, are you half in global equities? You've got to think of your own property. You're in the UK property market. You should own a home. You have exposure through owning a home. You need something there. You may want some short-term fixed interest stuff because you're going to need the income and you may need the money in another year's time or something.
48:22But I think you just don't be clever. And you probably want to play around a bit. And if you're brilliant at some kind of collecting, then sure, do that. If you know Lego inside out kind of thing. Well, exactly. Or if you're into vintage cars. But do you think the forces that have driven global equities up over the last 100 years will persist. Because one thing I see is like, you know, there's a lot of discussion, Goldman Sachs recently, lower expected returns over the next decade, these kind of arguments. And I think this can, people always worry like, oh God, I'm too late. It's, you know, the best is behind us.
49:02So you go down from a 70 allocation to a 45 allocation, 45 allocation, you know, maybe. What else do you do? You know. Yeah, I think this is a key point, like where else you're going to put your money? Where else you're going to put your money? And I think that the key message, I mean, in the book, I worry about we will lose money, we will lose fiat money, and we will go to something else. Well, you talked about broad exposure there a second ago. I mean, you should have some gold probably. Yeah. Probably. Okay. Not now maybe, but, you know, you should have some gold. You said global equities, property, gold.
49:39Why not a bit of Bitcoin then? Why not as part of your broad exposure? 5 % of your money in gold, 1 % in crypto, or 5 % in crypto. But don't be silly. No. Always be aware that - Don't look at me. I don't know what I'm doing. 75%. You know what you're doing when it's up? When it's down, you stay real quiet. Real humble. But I mean, I think the big bet that I make is that the market economy will broadly continue for the next 25 years. The world will keep turning. The world will keep turning. There will be many opportunities in the emerging world because it becomes more important. But you shouldn't be silly about it because there are governance issues and there are all sorts of other issues there.
50:28But it keeps coming back to compound interest and being aware that inflation may be quite a bit higher over the next few years than the markets expect, which tilts one back towards property and equities. And I mean, if you can find a way into it, private equity too. For someone buying, say, like a global equity fund then, where they're just betting on the world turning, market capitalization weighted, so that 65 % of that is going to be in America anyway. Do you think that's the kind of equity investment that is okay for people? Or do you think that going forward now, they need to be a little bit more deliberate about what they buy?
51:12I don't know. I'd love to be able to give you a very clear steer on it, but I can't. I think what I would say is you can have a strategy that is global equities, which I think is broadly the right strategy. You're allowed, however, to say, look, I do think America is overvalued at the moment vis-a-vis other markets, even allowing for everything. And I think the dollar is overvalued vis-a-vis other currencies, even allowing for everything. So, OK, I'm going to shade down that proportion of investment in America a bit. I'm not going to dump it. But, you know, you're allowed to say, I would rather have more in the UK or more in Sterling, given that the footsie is, poor old footsie, is at least, you know, about 80 % of the revenues come from outside the UK.
52:19You can say, at the moment, I would like to have more in Europe, because I believe Europe is underpriced at the moment. You can say, I would like to have more in the emerging world, despite the bumpiness of returns and really very disappointing over the last 10 years. I think there's a decent chance that it's... But you don't diverge too far from the norm. You don't try and be clever. You can tilt a bit. Yeah. Dial it down, dial it up slightly. Yeah. You know. And accept you'll get things wrong. Yeah. Yeah. And still have exposure to everything because you get that broad diversification. But you look at Warren Buffett, you know, who's had, who's not got into some high tech, didn't get into, has done all right.
53:05He bought Apple at a good time, didn't he? He bought Apple at a good time. Even though people said he was late when he got involved. Yeah, I know. You know, but he's not perfect. No. More he's just been consistent in the market for a long period of time. That's probably it. Exactly. And you don't bet against America as he, you know, you don't bet against it. Yeah, I think, you know, for me, the thing I encounter through my audience the most is an obsession with the best. And I think like, no, you know, just be in the market consistently long term and chances are you'll be okay. And go and be the best at what you do in your day job and improve your income, you know.
53:41Exactly. And save. And save in a tax efficient way. Yeah. You know, you're buying, you know, if you're on a 40%, what are you? you're buying 10 apples for the price of six. Yeah, you're getting that return instantly going into your pension. So that's giving you a lot of buffer. The market could drop 50 % and you're still... You're not down very much. You could drop 30 % and you're still ahead. I know exactly. And so I just think that it isn't exactly get rich slow. It's get comfortably off slow.
54:23and probably also find some way, as you get older, of going on contributing to the economy, ideally for money, in some way or other. Stay economically active beyond the age of retirement. Stay economically active. This is not against people who want to play golf. You want to play golf, that's fine. you know, but actually there are ways of being more useful to society. Yeah. And if you can make money out of it, then that's even better. My granddad always used to say to me, my friends all retired and they died, so I'm going to work until the day I die. He worked until he was about 85. Really? Yeah, yeah.
55:07I mean - What was he doing? He was like the local scout leader in an admin role and things. When I say work, the level of like work dropped. Yeah, yeah. But he was still very active. Yeah. And then he was working at his job and he went from, you know, very senior to kind of like an administration role within it. He stopped and he just deteriorated really quickly. Like the kind of the mental, like the cognitive side, his cognition drops really quickly. He was old. He was 89 by the time he died. Yeah. But. You're allowed to retire when you're, you know, approaching 89. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, but no, but I mean, you saw it in him instantly.
55:45His fitness and his mental sharpness just declined. And I'm not saying that people shouldn't retire, but I do think this is really important of like, if you want, we know that longevity improves. I mean, we've had a dip because of COVID, but how you measure it, the long-term trend inside this. It's reasonable to expect it'll creep up again. Yeah, but there's this period of very ill health for people and it's like longevity with conditions of bed bound And those who stay fit and active are mentally sharp, tend to have a better... Yeah. And the more that people who can be active are active, the more resources available then for people who really can't, who have to be in a wheelchair for whatever.
56:27So one's actually doing something useful for, not just for oneself, but for society as a whole. I'd like to talk about longevity a bit as well, because I think it's like a stereotypical 36-year-old male. you'd be like oh my god i might die one day and i've become obsessed with health fitness and living forever um because i really don't want to die yeah uh so you know what you mean what does it feel like from uh from the age of 81 are you 81 yeah i'm 81 well look how sharp you are i'm gonna keep going you know come on i'm gonna keep all right i've got it you know when i leave i've got to do a couple hundred words for the eye on on stormer you know what is it a reset yeah but But you're 81, that's blown my mind because you see.
57:08I've got to keep going. Yeah, yeah. But this is the point. So what do you think around longevity in terms of healthcare developments and like, am I going to live forever because I really don't want to die? I think that the great trick will be how do you keep people active for longer? How do you improve general health rather than how do you fix an emergency when it happens. And so much of our healthcare is going into fixing something when it goes wrong. Sick care, not healthcare. Sick care, right. Yeah, that's a good way of putting it. I hadn't heard that. Yeah. And how do you stop it going wrong in the first place?
57:54And I think AI will help in that. If you have this mass of data, which we will have, which we are increasingly do have, an AI can sort it out, it may well be that we can actually make a radical improvement to people's health before they start to get ill. Yeah. So, you know, as part of my study into longevity, I look at the kind of things like the levers that people can pull that make a meaningful difference. Sleep, diet, walk 10 ,000 steps. These kinds of things are like, they're like the biggest things that an individual can do to improve their longevity. And like getting enough steps, it can be as simple as I have like a wearable ring and those devices and it just goes get moving do some steps do you mean like those little nudges and that could improve overall health massively and reduce the pressure on the NHS absolutely just by people not well the 10 ,000 step thing is a lovely round number and um and I I try and do it yeah you said within the book that you think within 2040 that the financial system could have another sort of great depression moment yeah I I I think, as an economist, we know there is an economic cycle.
59:06We know it goes up, goes down, goes up, goes down. We've just had a humdinger of a recession, artificially created because of the pandemic. We had another one 10 years earlier, 2009, because of the banking crisis. We had one, well, we had in America, not here, a downturn at 2000.com, one in the early 90s, one in the early 80s. So I say when people say, well, you know, what's going to happen the next few years? I say there will be a downturn in 2030. It won't be in 2030. It might be in 2032. But there will be some sort of downturn happening. Unless you believe we've escaped from the economic cycle.
59:54We definitely haven't. I don't think so. They're part of your feature. So I think what we're doing is I think we've got a mid-cycle pause at the moment. But, you know, I don't. And so I think there will be a downturn. How serious? I have no idea. What will it be? It could be associated with governments being overborrowed and, you know, interest rates jacking up to, you know, 8 % on government debt or something. It could be anything. I don't know what it's going to be. another return of inflate. It could be anything. But I think there is a cycle and we should just accept that and get on with it.
1:00:31It's almost an easy prediction to make, isn't it? It's like there will be a crash or there will be a crash. Yeah. And I can give you a four-year window, 28 to 32. Yeah. And people love hearing that. They don't love it. They're worried about it. So if you predict a crash, you know, like they listen. But it may not be that bad a crash. And if you are, you know, if you are, and it won't be universal, if you're broadly spread, you have assets that your asset numbers go down for two or three years. On a 40-year or even 50-year investment cycle, being down a couple of years is a matter. Yeah. 28 to 32 is very specific.
1:01:15Well, I mean, you know, I'm just saying every 10 years or so. Yeah, but you need to nail the dates, don't you? Because if you're making a book where you predict in 2050, if you go, in the next 20 years, there'll probably be something that happens. You have a bit of luck sometimes. And I think I was lucky saying there would be a populist revolution in America against the liberal elite, Hollywood and all that, probably in the second decade of the century. And it happened in 16. I mean, you sometimes will hit things on the nose. You will sometimes be wrong. You know, you will be wrong. And I think in finance, the comfort I take is this very long view of what's happened to asset prices over the past 150 years.
1:02:10And unless you believe something's going to be really different in the next 25 years than it has been in the past couple of hundred or nearly 200 years, then I think, you know, you can actually take comfort from that and just not worry about the cycle too much. And there'll be times when things go quite mad. And it is possible there will be a madness in American equities in the next 18 months. And if it really gets mad, then perhaps you take a bit of profit, take a bit of money off the table. And are you overall optimistic about the future leading up to 2050?
1:02:54Yes. Yes. I think I'm realistic. I think we have a difficult time to get through now. the next decade or so because of the tensions that are existing, particularly between China and America, but also other tensions, the next tension will probably be in India and China. And, of course, the tensions of what do you do with Russia. So I think those tensions are not going to get better over the next five, ten years.
1:03:40I think we have to get through that period calmly. And if we get through that period, which I think the balance of probability is overwhelmingly we will without something truly dreadful that just makes everything I've written about look ridiculous happening. I think if we get through that period, then I think we can look forward to a calmer period beyond that, where the really big issues will be probably concerning the environment in Africa, sub -Saharan Africa. Does sub-Saharan Africa really start to close the gap with the rest of the world? Can we, within the foreseeable future, I don't say eliminate poverty, but at least crush it down so it only affects a relatively small proportion of the world's population?
1:04:34So I think we have a difficult period to get through and then a calmer one beyond. Now, is this right? No, there'll be information that comes along that is either more positive or more negative over the next few years. that means we have to course correct and say, okay, we were worrying about that. That isn't a worry. We weren't worrying about this. It didn't come on our radar. My word, we have to figure out how to fix it. And there may be something that comes up that is just totally off our radar at the moment. if you say to me what it is I have no idea but I think you always have to keep your ear cocked for
1:05:27look it could be we're not alone in the universe you know I think so but you have to I mentioned the possibility we've got to keep our ear cocked for something that is just just off the scale of our expectations
1:05:43and then deal with it sort of calmly and sensibly. I take quite a lot of comfort with the way the world dealt with the pandemic. Big pharma, governments, the universities. I thought, you know, huge hit. And we're not helped by the fact that it's not still, we don't know exactly what happened. I think we know, don't we? You mentioned in your book that if it comes out that it was created in a lab in China, that might cause a bit of friction. A bit of friction. But what scared me is you also said that Russia might have an environmental disaster, like another Chernobyl. I'm worried about that. Yeah.
1:06:25I'm worried about that. You're worried about that? Yeah. Yeah, slightly terrifying. I know, absolutely. And of course you're worried about the Middle East, worried about India, Pakistan. There are lots of flashpoints. What worries me most of all is something happening that isn't in any of my flashpoints, you know. And if you say, okay, well, you read that book, the hardback, a couple of years ago. I had to clear the page proofs for the hardback three days after Russia invaded Ukraine. and what do you do well you can't do very much at that stage uh but my number three worry i finished with 10 worries 10 positives three was actually russia might do something totally outrageous so what i did was just slip in we don't this has happened we did this my great fear is this this may already be happening already.
1:07:32And then in the paperback, I didn't change it very much because I felt I wasn't being honest. I still didn't know the outcome. I didn't know, wasn't being honest with the reader, if you change your view. And then the Middle East, I mean, I think, I can't remember, number eight worry, number seven worry, was the Middle East would become truly unstable. We lurched towards that. So two of my big worries within the very short life of this book have already burst out, and some of the others will as well. Does that destroy the whole view? Well, no, I come back to where I began. We're on this journey.
1:08:15We can't get off it. We've got to try and, as new information comes in, we've got to try and process that and understand it. and then we have to hope that society pulls well enough together, global society, to cope with it.
1:08:34Please remember, this is not financial advice. Like we say a lot on the podcast, investments can fall and rise. In fact, it's pretty much a guarantee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. So your money is at risk with investing and other fees may apply. As with everything financial, please do your own research. We really encourage that because no one cares more about your money than you. I'm Damo. Banti. This was an episode of Making Money from Our Company Most. It was filmed and edited by the team at Flow Spire, Jack and Ben. It was produced by Ruth Edwards and brought together by Will Stallman.
1:09:04What about Ruth and Toothless a Dog? Yeah, shout out them too.
From the publisher
What will the world look like in 2050? Will the US remain the largest economy, or will China or India take the lead? Can AI solve the challenges posed by an ageing population? And will asset prices deliver the returns we expect?
Hamish McRae, an economics columnist for The i and the Mail on Sunday, is the author of The World in 2050: How to Think About the Future.
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