Bitcoin vs. Stocks: What’s the Smarter Investment? (AMA) w/ Salim Ismail | EP #139

0:00The numbers are insane, Bitcoin compared to everything else over the last, you know, number of years out performance is off the charts. I think that's probably going to be the safest bet going forward, and I would much rather put my money into Bitcoin in then an aggregate fund today. Is it still safe to own the broad stock market through an index fund over the next 20 years, considering all the disruption that's going to occur? The biotech industry was decimated over the last four years. I think a lot of that's going to come back So index funds around small biotechs. I think we'll do well make your organization as adaptable as possible and that will give you Future proofing and staying power that was what was going to drive the future in the future How high will Bitcoin go in 2025?

0:48What are your predictions? My guess is 300k by the end of the year

0:55Everybody, welcome to Moon Shots, our special end of your episode in which I'm going to be answering your questions. We're doing an AMA myself and Salim Ismail in this special WTF just happened in tech. This segment is sponsored by three companies I use daily, fountain, vial, and one skin. Found is my company that helps me avoid disease and helps me understand what's happening to me, I go for an annual upload every year to answer two questions. Anything going on inside my body, I need to know about and what's happening in the future that I can optimize myself. Vione is built custom supplementations for a surprisingly affordable price.

1:35They measure my gut microbiome and deliver supplements that are custom made for my body, my gut, my oral microbiome. And one skin is how I keep my skin looking young. I get a lot of compliments on my skin, which constantly surprised me. And I tell people it's from my one -skin product, an incredible technology for finding senile cells on my skin, zapping them, and keeping me, you know, looking good, at least to myself in the mirror. Everything is linked below. Enjoy this episode. Your questions answered by Selene and myself. Selene, we have a lot of really incredible questions. Some of these are made me think, and I'm excited about your thoughts.

2:13The first one is from Zovarians. It says, if BMI's grant us unprecedented access to the human mind, how will this redefine our concept of privacy, agency, even what it means to be human? And when he says BMI's, he doesn't mean body mass index. It's brain computer interface or brain machine interface. So what happens there? What do you think? You know, it's like I said in the last episode, right? but I think we're going to take increasingly more functions of the brain that we have dedicated in your own stores, like our memory in your own source to the smartphone. It's just going to free us a lot more for the creative aspects of being more human.

2:56For the last couple of hundred years in work, you got measured by how robotic you or how many widgets does thing you could do. And now the most valuable employees and colleagues you have are the ones that are the most human. So I think we're going to learn them fastest. I think we're going to, this is going to, if you allow it, if you turn on intimacy mode, where someone else can know all of your thoughts. There's a level of intimacy that occurs that is very rare today. I think you're going to give AI access to everything because it'll make your life unimaginable. All right. So, at BES, thoughts on Sailor and Micro Strategies, Bitcoin Playbook.

3:34So, at B, as I mentioned in a previous podcast, I just had dinner with Michael, and his playbook is amazing. We're going to do a podcast actually on how to implement his playbook, how to turn other companies on the Bitcoin standard. The performance micro strategies is off the charts. and Michael is one of the most brilliant people that I know, and he's gone, he's driven deep. All right, let me ask this one of you, my friend, are you concerned that quantum computers breaking encryption and hacking crypto wallets? What do you think about that? I'm not because as we get to quantum encryption, break a quantum breaking encryption, we also have quantum encryption standards that are emerging.

4:23I will just move to the new standard. It's an arms race. What is under threat is all the decades of past stuff that's encrypted, that will be at more risk, but the time value of that is much lower. You know, I've heard people say we've got about three years to start getting switching over, maybe, you know, and five years we need to be there, but just to remind folks, I'm not concerned about it, breaking encryption on my Bitcoin wallets. I'm concerned about breaking encryption on nuclear codes or on the entire banking industry. Much bigger concern. You know, your Bitcoin wallets may they grow exponentially?

5:03Are not - And peacefully. And peacefully not the major problem. All right, at mouse boy science says, will you in any way contribute to the Mars colonial missions starting in six years, what would you - would you go yourself to provide resources for those who go on your behalf? When will we see humans on Mars? So, great question. When I was interviewing Elon last in October, I asked him. I said, Elon, when is Starship going to Mars? And his answer was aggressively the next couple years. So, I think we're going to see as soon as Starship is operating, it's going to be going to orbit around the Earth.

5:42We'll see it landing on the moon with its landing legs, and then we'll see it going to Mars. I mentioned in a previous episode in my predictions for 2025 that I think we're going to get a clarion call from the Trump White House saying boots on Mars by 2030, reminiscent of JFK, but those boots are going to be an optimist robot. When would I go? I'd like to go to the moon, actually. That's my first priority. Mars, sure. After there's a nice shell A and Jacuzzi waiting for me there. I don't want to rough it. I'll rough it on the moon because it's close by. But on Mars, if I'm going to go for two or three years, I won't be able to enjoy myself.

6:19So some robots digging Martian soil and building first. How about you? Do you want to go to Mars? I really don't it doesn't look so great over there. I totally agree through on the moon. I would go there in a second I think Mars is for the next hundred years or so definitely a one -way ticket and I really don't know. I don't agree with that. I think it's around one way to your meaning you can get there. It's gonna be very hard to get back Well the whole idea of Starship is that it's being fueled with methane I mean, not from a physics perspective. It's the humanist, the time lag, it's the, it's all of the human aspects of all of that.

6:56I think we'll send humanoid robots for a while, and that'll be great. I think it'll be a while before we send the first human beings. And then it'll even longer before they come back. You know, what's interesting is Bezos and I, I've known Jeff since college, when I saw him back after Amazon was started. I said, Jeff, what are you doing with this Amazon thing? I thought you wanted to go to space. And you guys make my money in Amazon and I'll spend it in space. And he's doing that now. We're going to see New Glenn, their first orbital mission effort very shortly. Good luck, Jeff. But his vision is rather than going to Mars, let's build onil colonies, large colonies that hold a million people built out of astro -artil materials that are rotating to give you 1G and are in orbit around the sun, maybe co -orbiting with the earth.

7:48And I would love to go and pioneer one of those. Bruno, my friends along and build one. All right. Next question is at Felso. How long until we can experience something like Oasis, Ready Player One? I imagine AI has to come first for something like that to be possible. What do you think? I think we're almost there now. I mean, you take some of the virtual reality and augmented reality apps. It's kind of incredible. If you look at their latest Grand Theft Auto, it's almost indistinguishable from real life. And there's this point in time where resolution on a screen exceeds that of the human eye, and we're just about there now.

8:28And that changes the game completely. What's interesting about all of this is that virtual reality is much more disruptive than real reality. And they're real see some really fascinating things happen. So, game of finding it and going to a ready player one scenario, I completely see that happening in the near short to medium term future. I just finished some time with Alvin Graylin, who is one of the real visionaries he wrote a book called Our New Reality. And talking about this, and it's really AI, like the question said, is fundamental to have this happen. And we're seeing Sora and New Stability AI and a number of these being able to generate in real -time scenes to create whatever you want.

9:15And so I think we're there within two years that the hardware on your head has to catch up. Do you own a vision, Pro? I don't. I've tried it, but I don't own one yet. I think for a while it's going to be used in very specific, specific applications, like surgery, surgery, and fixing sensitive aircraft parts and things like that. I think we're ways away from the profile of that. The metaglasses are really an amazing leap forward at a couple of levels, and I think that's where we'll see things happen first. But I think we're a year or two away from the hardware being anywhere near workable to the way we want it to.

9:55Agreed. It's interesting because I own a Vision Pro, and it's been sitting under my desk. I've used it twice, which tells you something, right? the software isn't there yet. And the hardware is difficult to get on and off. It should be something you put on, and it's instantly you're there. And it needs to weigh under 50 grams, which, you know, a pair of glasses. Next question, who else besides Elon is working on brain computer interface? And do you think anyone is going to enable Rick Kurzweil's predictions to come true? So raise predictions. 2033, mid -2030s, high bandwidth BCI. So you're able to basically communicate directly with the brain, think in Google, bypass the peripheral nervous system.

10:46I've got one answer to that. I mean, there are a number of incredible BCI companies. One of them in particular is going to be on stage at the abundance of this year. It's science, Max Hodeck, I mentioned him in our last podcast, is the CEO of that. And they have a brand new technology that rather than like a thousand little microfibers which Neuralink puts into the neocortex of the brain, we're talking about tens of millions the way they do it. I'm not going to disclose how it, you'll learn about it. It blew my mind when I saw this. And I think we're going to be seeing a lot of companies coming into the BCI space.

11:27So here's the question, would you get one? Oh, 100%. Yeah. Yeah. I think the whole brain modeling things incredibly hard to do, but interfacing with the brain is a much easier thing to do. And it's important to note that we've got a long spectrum of interfacing with the brain, yoga, martial arts, prayer, meditation, then neurolinguistic capabilities and neurolinguistic programming, etc., etc., all the way to psychedelics. But once you have technological interfaces, those accelerated Moore's law. And now we can, it's like the comment about sleep. We still have no idea why we sleep, but the more we can help it, the longer it's better.

12:07And therefore, we have lots of technologies that can help it. We don't need to know exactly how it works. And so the brain will operate in the same way. I think we'll interface within really powerful ways. We sleeper chance to dream. Alright, at Imagine Action 38 says, is it still safe to own the broad stock market through an index fund over the next 20 years considering all the disruption that's going to occur? Great question. How do you think about it? I think it's very simple to what's going to happen. and this is a plug for EXO where we've done an analysis that showed that the more flexible and adaptable an organization is.

12:45This is a study we did on the Fortune 100. It delivers 40 times the shareholder returns over a seven -year period than those that were at least flexible, least agile. So therefore the name of the game in a volatile future is make your organization as adaptable as possible. And that will give you future proofing and staying power, that was what was going to drive the future in a huge right. I'll give two data points of a friend of mine who is a billionaire in Silicon Valley. And he, when Trump took the White House, he basically took a bunch of money and dropped it into index funds. And basically said, we're going to have a roaring 20s.

13:27And I'm getting invested in QQQ and a few others. I mean, the biotech industry was decimated over the last four years. And I think a lot of that's going to come back. So index funds around small biotechs think we'll do well. But one of the questions is, do you put it all into Bitcoin? I mean, the numbers are insane. If you compare Bitcoin compared to everything else over the last number of years, outperformance is off the charts. I think that's probably going to be the safest bet going forward. And I would much rather put my money into Bitcoin in then an aggregate fund today. Yeah, I don't know where I'm see where Bitcoin is at this very moment.

14:12107. As we're speaking here, Bitcoin is at 106. 106. Yeah, so I mean, listen, it's going to be up and down up and down, but your prediction for 2025 was Bitcoin at 300. it, I think that is very possible. And it's due to a lot of factors, including everybody beginning to start to think about, do we replicate what Michael's done? Michael Sailor. And I think a lot of people are going to follow his lead. Right. Right. Right. You'll get multiple entries in that, therefore, that they'll just expand the scope of that whole domain of using the bond market to augment, et cetera. So I think there's a huge future in this.

14:52Here is a great question from Nithi Ashri, G, who says, imagine that you're 23 right now. Actually, I think I'm 23 right now. Actually, in my mind, I'm 28 right now. What would you do? Would you build planetary resources? What would you read and learn? Where would you put your time and money? Where would you travel? What tech will you absolutely master? or what will you question about? So a lot of great questions, you could take an entire episode to discuss just that, but your 23 round house, Celine, what would you be doing? If I was myself telling my 23 year old and me what to do, I'm kind of intended, I would say go study philosophy a lot more and go learn the liberal arts a lot more because it gives you different frames for thinking about the world, which I think are very powerful.

15:45A little secret about solar convales is more than half the CEOs or liberal arts background, which is kind of an amazing thing to comment on. So, if I were 23 right now, I would be diving deep into AI or biotech. I think these are the two industries that are defining the next decade. They're both massive trillion dollar opportunities. So I would get absolutely clear about my purpose in life, my purpose in passion. mtp. Yeah, and by the way, if you don't know what your massive transformative purpose is, I've my team and I have built a platform called MyPurposeFinder .ai. It's free and it will walk you through a process.

16:32It's really, really easy and walk you through the process of defining your massive transformative purpose. So find out your MTP. And if it's related to AI or health and longevity, those are two incredible exponential growth curves ahead of us. Would I go and do planetary resources again? Yeah, I still want to go do it. I still want to, but I need to go and do it when I've got a few hundred million dollars of cash in my pocket. So I'm not going to raise the money for anybody else, because it's just too painful to build these companies that are so cash -dependent. Okay, next question comes from at Alex Lubarski.

17:16If you could design a system of healthcare in the US, focused on youthful longevity, what would be the most important aspect?

17:26Alexi, I think the most important aspect right now is reinventing the food system. I think, you know, I'm all a thousand percent on board with RFKs make America healthy again. We're killing ourselves by virtue of the stuff we're ingesting. So first, do no harm. So let's get our health system in order. The second thing I would be doing is actually creating a set of sensors and AI models that are monitoring us 24 hours a day, seven days a week, right? So I've got my arm, I've got my continuous glucose monitor, I've got my auroring, my apple watch, just the beginning. There will be a suite of sensors that you wear on your body, in your body, in your car, in your bed that's dribbling data to your AI and able to find and accurately predict what's going to happen to you.

18:23And just doing that. And then it's about getting people to realize the power they have on sleep and exercise and mindset. Do you want anything to that, Selene? Yeah, I think two things. One is there's a massive amount of regulatory capture in the healthcare industry and you want to break through that and I think that's the most promising aspect of the incoming administration as the opportunity and frankly the obligation to do that because that's held holding back the health of Americans in a huge way. I think that's one and the second thing is a faster path to markets for breakthrough in new therapies and diagnostics.

19:01Yeah, for sure. It takes seven years to get through the FDA and by the time your drug is approved, it's out of date. Yeah. So there's so much more. And by the way, just to plug your Peter, for those who have not washed your interview with Jack Hittery, absolutely drop everything and go wash that interview with that Peter did with Jack a couple of weeks ago, it's unbelievable to see what's happening and what's possible now with quantum sensors and quantum computing coming online. The opportunity for transforming health care is absolutely there and we need to take full advantage of it. Well, it's what you teach inside of OpenEXO.

19:35I mean, there's so much disruption that is there, especially in the highly regulated. And I think you nailed the head, nailed the whatever, the nail in the head. Yeah, something like that. on the regulatory reform that's required. It's just, and people are, you know, the wealthiest people I know are leaving the country to get advanced healthcare elsewhere. Thanks, no sales. Yeah, crazy. All right, next question. Did you see the recent study done on the ability of AI to diagnose better than humans or better than humans plus AI? What are your thoughts? Did you see that one? Well, this has been a different domain, it's has been around for a while now, right?

20:16But let me give you the numbers. So a, it's approximate numbers, but like a physician by themselves with a set of data can diagnose like 70 % accuracy. Yeah, there's a lot. A physician with a chatbot by their side can get it up to 75%. But an AI on its own is like at 90%. And like, why? Well, you know, the physician is biased. You're injecting all the wrong information. And it's like insane, you know, how, anyway, I'm just going to step my rant there. Yeah, so just like human beings should not be driving cars because we're terrible control systems for two ton of cars going high speed, doctors, human beings should not be doctors.

20:59The legacy of seven years of experience. Don't tell my nieces that. I know, but look, you spend seven years early in your career becoming a doctor and then you never refresh, right? And that's just absurd given the amount of cases of pain. They do have continuing medical education, CME credits and so forth. But it the field, I remember today's a special day. My sister Marcel just passed her functional medicine exam. And so functional medicine is a branch of medicine, which is root cause looking at on a cellular level, what's going on. And it's so much more advanced than what you're learning in medical school.

21:37So she went back and spent a year basically retraining in this. But even then, you're right. In AI, in functional medicine is going to just be that much better. I remember Daniel Kraftwinkin has commented until very recently, in seven years of medical training, you only got one hour of a genomics. That's just ridiculous. And why? Because you can't update the education system in an easy way. you talk about immune systems, education and healthcare, the worst that we're out there. Yeah, it's insane. All right, at MathGov says, how do we overcome exponential tech being used to wage future wars? Interesting.

22:19You first, buddy. Well, the good news is this is an arms race that we've seen before where bad people will use AI unfiltered, unrestricted with regulatory ethical insert concerns. It makes it actually easier to spot and then you can police the big one quick anecdote here Please mark goodman who worked future crimes 2015 Amazon Business Book of the year tells this great story There was a bank robbery and like somewhere in the Midwest and the bank manager calls the police and says They were all dressed as construction workers and they robbed the bank It's a police to like oh, they should be pretty easy to swap spot except what the bank robbers have done and had put an add on Craigslist saying anybody who wants a high -paying construction job show up with all your gear at 9 o 'clock at this location.

23:03And so there were 800 construction workers in the square. And so they essentially crowdsource their escape and melted into the crowd. And I just, the creativity that comes from that element is so amazing that you don't want to lose that. Can you guide it in more constructive ways? Oh, right. So I think what happens is as we figure out the techniques used by the bad guys, we fixed it. Years ago, we were totally thought that spam would take out all email without the fishing would make the internet ungovernable, and we've managed to solve those pretty quickly. So I think the same thing will happen as we have bad actors and the latest technologies.

23:38So the question really is exponential tech like drones and humanoid robots and humanoid robots with guns or AI powered tanks, waging future wars. My bigger concern would be biotech because is some needle designer virus that could, and to consider that virus, go find all middle age brown guys with a, or an original sweater and a tag. And that would be a bad outcome, right? And so how do you deal with that is not a non -trivial thing. Well, you got your attack dog in the background or when you're at the fender. I do the dog who's trying to protect you from the back. Yeah, not that that dog could do anything to protect anybody, but still.

24:19It's a yapper. So, you know, Star Trek was such an incredible TV show that explored so much. And one of the things that, you know, has the potential for exponential tech is to take humans out of the loop. So it's like robots fighting robots or drones fighting drones. And there was an episode of Star Trek, I don't know if you remember it. It was like, it was called like the Forever Wars and like that, where Kirk and Spock beam into the planet and they find a society there where there are two societies that have been basically at war for like thousands of years because they did it in an AI simulation where they were like in the simulation and they they would say okay in the city precinct 100 people died here so go and you 100 people up to go into this booth where you'll get vaporized and so So they had a war going on that didn't destroy the environment, didn't destroy buildings, and it just very neatly executed people.

25:28And then Kirk gets there and goes, listen, if your war isn't bloody, you're never going to end it. So then he destroys that system and says, if you want to have a war, like have a real war, I love Star Trek for having explored all these areas. So that's a question. And shout out to the underlying framing of Star Trek, which was IDIC, Infinite Divert, Sudi, and Infinite Creativity. I think that we are seeing that already. Let's note that the Russia -Ukraine conflict is being prosecuted by something like half a million drones, more than people. And the number of people killed by war is that it's an all -time high, All right, a long time low in human history.

26:11So that's already happening and trending. We don't notice it because we only see the current wars in the current conflicts and we see it amplified in the news. But things are getting much better on that front and should get much better exponentially as we take out the need for work. My favorite example that people at counterpoint is once you have abundant energy, which is coming shortly, then what are you fighting over? Because oil was the thing we've been fighting over for the last 100 years. And so there's all of that to think about as we change the underlying dynamics that will have some impact on conflicts.

26:41Well, let's go there on energy because I think it's very important. We didn't talk about predictions for energy for 2025 in our last episode, but I do think we're going to start to see a real refocusing on resources and energy in particular in the United States. I think we're going to start to see fourth generation nuclear power plants becoming the thing that's going to power are hyper scalers. Absolutely. And small nuclear and fourth generation are going to change the game. And if we don't do it, everybody else will. And so it becomes a combination that has to be done. It'll get done everywhere.