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Podcast Summary: Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - Episode 79: Elon Musk on Abundance, AGI, and The Media in 2024
Episode Overview In this episode of *Moonshots*, Peter Diamandis engages with Elon Musk in a conversation about various topics including technological optimism, artificial general intelligence (AGI), media negativity, and societal challenges. The dialogue aims to spread a message of hope and outlines the potential for abundance in the future.
Key Themes
- Technological Optimism
- Discussion on the role of technology in creating a future of abundance.
- The importance of a positive mindset in driving progress.
- Media Influence
- Critique of mainstream media for their focus on negative news, dubbed the "Crisis News Network."
- Discussion on how negative media can shape public perception and mindset.
- Global Challenges and Solutions
- Examination of global issues such as poverty, hunger, and climate change.
- Emphasis on technology providing solutions to grand challenges.
Detailed Breakdown of Discussions
- The Revolution of Communication Technology (12:42)
- Rapid advancement in communication technologies contributes to information accessibility.
- Increased smartphone usage (6.9 billion users) enables global connectivity and education.
- Redefining Overpopulation and Healthspan (22:12)
- Counterarguments against the notion of overpopulation; focus on under-population as a concern.
- Significant improvements in child mortality rates and life expectancy highlighted.
- Debate on the ethics of longevity and healthspan, with differing views on extending life.
- The Quest for Safe AI (1:10:05)
- Discussion on AI safety and the potential risks associated with AGI.
- Musk posits that AI should be programmed for truth-seeking and curiosity.
- Concerns about the “extinctionist philosophy” potentially being programmed into AI.
Key Takeaways
- Mindset Matters: Both Musk and Diamandis emphasize the importance of maintaining a positive mindset as a self-fulfilling prophecy that can drive societal improvements and technological advancements.
- Abundance vs. Scarcity: The conversation revolves around the concept of abundance, asserting that much of the world is better off than perceived, and that technological advancements are key to solving existing global challenges.
- Role of AI: AI is seen as a transformative technology that can uplift humanity, with discussions on the ethical implications and safety measures required to harness its full potential.
- Optimism for the Future: The episode closes on a hopeful note, encouraging listeners to adopt an optimistic perspective towards the future, especially regarding population growth and technological advancements.
Conclusion This episode with Elon Musk highlights a vision for the future shaped by technological optimism and the belief in human potential to solve grand challenges. Both Diamandis and Musk advocate for a shift in narrative from fear and scarcity to one of hope and abundance.
--- For further insights, listeners are encouraged to follow Peter Diamandis on [X](https://x.com/PeterDiamandis) and check out the latest from the XPRIZE initiatives.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00I'm NFL Lineback at Tijayawatt and this is my personal best. YPB by Abercrombie is the active wearer I'm always wearing. That's why I reached out to co -design their latest drop. I work with designers to create high -performance active wear that holds up to my toughest workouts. Shop YPB by Abercrombie in -store online and in the app. Because your personal best is greater than anything.
0:31When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp. The secure messaging app that brings the whole group together, use polls to settle dinner plans, send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom's 60th and never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end -to -end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp. Message privately with everyone. Learn more at WhatsApp .com. Following as a year's conversation I had with Elon Musk, arguably the greatest entrepreneur of our time, perhaps the greatest entrepreneur ever. During this conversation, which is called the coming age of abundance, we talk about how technologies, including AI and humanoid robotics, are creating a world of abundance, uplifting humanity across food, water, energy, healthcare, education.
1:19We'll be talking about longevity. We'll be talking about AI. I will be talking about the decreasing global population. And one of the reasons that you should have for being optimistic about the future, join me. Happy New Year, Elon. Happy New Year. 2020. I look to you. Yeah, it feels like the future. Ha, ha, ha. And it is the future. It is the future. It's going to be awesome. I'm hoping we get a little bit of conversation on some hope and good news for folks on this on the spaces. I think the ol can use it. You're the most optimistic person that I know of by far. I guess it is refreshing to hear such optimism.
2:09I think people need a positive mindset. I think it's self -fulfilling prophecy to a large degree. You know, if you're pessimistic and we can talk about how the news media just decimates our minds constantly Yeah, the news is so negative. I mean it makes me sad to read the news frankly I will let me ask you a question. I don't watch I don't watch network news and I don't read any newspapers They couldn't pay me enough money Yeah, to do that I'll accidentally read the news and I'll just be sad I'm not mad. It's insane. Well, I mean, as you know, the news, the daily news, really attempts to answer the question, what is the worst thing that happened on Earth today?
3:00It is. And let me show it to you every five minutes in your living room over and over and over again. Yeah, and it's a big world. There's 8 billion people on Earth. So somewhere else, something horrible is happening every single day. But there's also great things happening every single day. And you know what I call CNN? The crisis news network or the constantly negative news network? And the problem is, if they've got to scare you otherwise, you know, if they say, hey, it's been a pretty good day overall. We're, you know, violence is an all -time low. We've gotten more access to food, energy water, healthcare education on the planet.
3:42that ever before. I mean, people would just start watching horror movies, I think it's dead. Yeah. The challenge is it's our neural nets, the wiring of our brains evolved in a world of constant danger. And so we're just wired for fear and scarcity constantly. Yeah. Well, yeah, I think you're made this point. Maybe others have. But it sort of makes sense as an evolutionary asymmetry that we would respond more to danger than to reward. In that, like the consequences of danger could be fatal. Like it could be like, well, if you go over there, there's a lion that's going to eat you or some neighboring tribe that's going to kill you and it's game over.
4:34Yeah, your genes are out of the gene pool. Yeah, you're out. Whereas, say, like, news that there's a nice bush with berries over there, it's nice to have. It's optional. But in one case, you die, in other case, you're hungry, but death is worse than hunger. So that's why it's basically, anyone who did not respond more to negative news, that positive news didn't make it. they were selected against, for sure. That's, I mean, anyone who was complacent about where the lion was, even by the lion. And the reality is, the news media has one job to deliver your eyeballs to their advertisers. And when we pay 10 times more attention to not get them used and positive use, that's all we get 24 .7.
5:28So, I mean, listen, I, it's not audible. It is. I mean, I do get my news invariably on my feet on X, but I also get all the great things happening in the world because I can selectively choose to watch that. But when you're watching TV or in the newspaper, some editors, some place or some producers deciding what gets fed into your mind, and it can really screw with your mindset. that. Yes, exactly. So, I mean, this space is called at the coming age of abundance. And, you know, you were really when my first book came out, Abundance the Future is better than you think. You were super supportive and I appreciate that.
6:14It was 12 years ago. And I think the story, whoa, 12 years. Amazing. Yeah. And it's gotten so much better. So I, it is. And so many ways, not every way. I mean, I mean, I was to re -go back aways. I remember when we were at a data party in Brazil. Yeah. How long ago? He was 40th or was it his 30th? No, it was his 30th. Wow. This was just when SpaceX was... Yeah, we're just when I was forming space. Yeah, it was 2003. It was just before the X Prize was won. Right, I was trying to convince you in not to build rockets. 21 years ago, like this. You can have a kid that has to legally break now. Or legally up kids.
7:08Yeah. So 21 years ago, yeah. So, and you know, things are mostly better. I want to give everybody listening a dose of hope and optimism on the abundant side, because the world has gone better on so many ways. All you hear about is the negative constantly. I think that's going back to our core dystopian mindsets from evolving 100 ,000 years ago. If we just look at some of the areas, global extreme poverty, what's a more important metric? Here are the numbers. 90 % of the world was in global extreme poverty in 1800s. In 1981, it was 42%, today it's under 10 % of the world. Yeah. Hunger is actually rare and it used to be common.
8:07Exactly. And another one is obviously one hairy that you're leading the charge on is energy. You know, we used to kill whales to get whale oil to light it on our night. It's only ravaged mountain sides. So we drilled kilometers under the ground. And what's the figure? It's like 8 ,000 times more energy hits the surface of the sun, the surface of the earth from the sun than we consume as a species. But what's the rate at which batteries and solars increasing? It must be massive. Yes, I mean, I mean, it tells that we've made a couple of presentations. What one sort of simplistic and then one extreme detail on how to make Earth completely self -sustaining from an energy standpoint.
8:52And demonstrating that there is no, that if you break down all of the raw materials for lithium ion battery and for solar, you can easily make us. I mean, there's no shortage of materials such as that easily. It's a lot of work, obviously. But, but, but there's not like some critical material that we don't have enough of in order to make fully self -sustaining. Even if the only way that you powered all of industry on earth and all power including heating and Transport Electrically you could do that with solar and lithium -ion batteries and and not Not come anywhere close to depleting the resources of earth.
9:35Yeah, my favorite my favorite example there was Back in the 1800s the most precious metal on the planet was aluminum It was more precious than gold and platinum. Even though the Earth's crust is 8 % box site, basically aluminum, it was just so energetically difficult. It wasn't that it was scarce. It just wasn't in usable format. That's what technology does. It takes something which is scarce and not usable and makes it usable. right? So yeah. Yeah. Lune oxide is extremely common. But it is a low energy state. In fact, thermite is just iron oxide rust and pure aluminum. And the energy difference between iron oxide and aluminum oxide is so great that it generates incredible enough heat to melt through a steel.
10:34So that's what the mine is. So yeah, you do need a lot of energy to turn aluminum oxide into aluminum. But yeah, in World War II there was a massive scarcity of aluminum for aircraft. Sure. And that in fact, in Britain, the mosquito sort of fighter bomber was made mostly of wood. But it was done with, it was basically an early form of composites, but using Stiffwood on the outside and light wood and like balsa as a sandwich structure. It's pretty clever. Now the whole thing was intended to address the shortage of... And then we get technology, we get better mechanisms of extracting the aluminum from the and no oxide from the box site.
11:30And this happens over and over again. In fact, that's just what we do. I mean, I think the number was last year in 2023, or maybe in 2022, we had more new electricity production from solar than from any other form. And you've done an extraordinary job on battery production. Yeah, and the battery production is growing. actually almost at several times the rate of vehicle production. So in some cases almost 10x the rate of vehicle production. So yes, there's a massive amount of batteries and as the world uses more electricity, there's actually a lot more capability that the grid it has if you can buffer the energy then without it because the vast majority of electrical grid is wasted.
12:28They assume no buffer. So they have to size the power plants for peak output, peak power output, which is typically a hot summer day. And then at night you can have anywhere from optimistically half power output to sometimes one -tenth of the power output. So basically the grid almost everywhere, the grid is sized for excess electrical power output. And if you just buffer it with batteries, you can increase the output of the grid by two or three times. I mean, to make the point here on the abundance theme, there is no limitation in energy, right? we are increasing the amount of energy per capita.
13:19And there's a direct correlation between the GDP of a nation and its energy production, right? And the direct correlation between health and education and energy, everything scales as you increase the energy per capita of a nation. Yeah. Yeah. It's some of another category, communications, another area that you're revolutionizing. I think the number right now I just was checking it earlier. It's like 6 .9 billion smartphone users in 2023 86 86 % and that's what I got when I when I googled it No, no, what it's a 6 .9 you know what I say yeah 6 ,980 6 ,900 million that my my 12 year olds would say the same
14:13It's like 85 % of the planets got a smartphone. And, and, and, well, I mean, if you add up the total number of smartphones, ever made, it exceeds, yeah. Oh, I think it, so it's amazing. So we've gone from like zero telephany to the majority, vast majority of the planet in under a century. You know, global internet is well the same thing and did your next iteration of Starlink spacecraft have gone up? The direct to cell phone? Okay. Yes, that just went up. So, you know, we still have to prove that it works in all, But we're confident that even if these early satellites start work, we're confident from physics standpoint that it can work.
15:08It is a challenge because we have to emulate a self -tower on the ground in order for the phones to accept the signal. So we have to do double compensation, for example. And I do some sort of, because you've got a speed of light limitations. Tell, if it were easy, it would have been done already. Yeah, some speed of light limitations. So, yes, this light is so fast and yet so slow. So, you know, I got a good way to think about light, at least in the space context. Or for the low -ethore context is a travels about 300 kilometers every millisecond in air or in space. And then around just over 200 kilometers per millisecond in fiber.
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17:35Trust me your gut will thank you. All right. Let's go back to the episode You know another abundance area is health I hear some some kids in the background there. So interestingly enough, you know child mortality I mean probably I Mean this is like when it hits me the most in terms of increasing abundance child mortality under the age of five was 42 % a couple hundred years ago. It was a coin flip of whether your kids survived and And it's decreased now to under 5 % and it's gone down by 50 % in the last 30 years. So just childhood mortality and women dying in childbirth, all of these things, people don't think about when they're listening to all the news in all the issues.
18:23And then life expectancy, my favorite subject has gone up from 30 years old to 75 plus. I still disagree with you on longevity though. That we should solve it or not. You think we should. I listen, I'm not necessarily saying, lift forever, but I'd like to make it to 120, 150. I sort of wonder if we should not solve it too soon.
18:56Just. You're presidential elections. I'm expecting first. And do you really want them to get that life expectancy first? Well, you know, I think we, I think being able to have the vitality, the cognition, the physical prowess, you know, that you have when you're in your 40s or 50s through the age of 100, that's my goal. I mean, you don't want to, you know, you want to make it to at least 100, don't you? Well, I guess it does depend on whether I'm, you know, to have dementia. I don't think I'd want to be burden on society or have dementia, not know what's going on. I prefer it to be dead. Well, yeah, I think that's for sure.
19:51But let's assume that you had all the cognitive power you have today in your physical strength. Is there any reason why you wouldn't want to have an extended lifespan or health span?
20:06Yeah, sure. I guess I think we are in the such a strong forcey function for life extension or health span an extension that I think we will see in the mass prison area, whether I want them to be there or not. And actually my opinion on the subject is that it's, I think it's actually not that hard to solve
20:36because if you just consider arguments of symmetry, that's quite helpful. So the cells in our body, all age, are basically almost exactly the same speeds. I've not seen anyone who has an old left arm and a young right arm. I've never seen that, not even once. So how are the cells communicating? And what is synchronizing their behavior? Something that there's a very clear mechanism and for synchronizing aging among the 30 to 40 trillion cells in your body. Like, depending on your body mass, you're typically going to have 30 to 40 trillion. That's correct. You know, keep, you know, in sync. I mean, the other, the other reference proof point is, you know, bohew to whales, when the largest mammals can make it to 200 years repeatedly.
21:32Greenland sharks can make it to 500 years and have babies at 200 years old. I remember when I was in medical school hearing that I said, you know, why can they? Why can't we? I said, it's either an engineering problem or software problem. Now, hardware problem or software problem. And I think this is one of the biggest areas AI is going to give us is a real understanding. And then to your other point about your left arm and right arm, you know, when you have a baby, you know, what's 30, 35, your 40, 45, your baby starts out at zero.
22:10Yeah. I do find it remarkable that we decompress from a single cell to an adult human. And then we to procreate, compress back down to a single cell. I'm not as fascinating. You know, look at yourself as a sort of You know, blast the system and say like, I haven't changed a bit. Here we go again. Let's recycle. It's like the big bang. It's like the big crunch. You know, one of the things people argue about on extended health span and increasing the population getting to 100, 120, 150. And there's a concept called longevity escape philosophy, right? That there's going to be a point at which for every year you're alive, science is extending your life for more than a year.
22:59And that's an interesting idea to think about, in which case, you know, accidents become really a thing to be concerned about. They concern about overpopulation, and you've hit this multiple times, right? And I saw you tweeting about it, or sorry, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're about it today. Sorry. But it's, you know, overpopulation is one of the biggest myths and biggest false. Yeah. Overpopulation is how to be at. Yeah. You know, and you know, it's such nonsense.
23:40This is underpopulated. Not overpopulated. We can't. Look out the window when you're flying across across the country, it's empty. Absolutely. Exactly. It's like, if you said like, if you go with food, like flying from all year to New York to drop a bowling ball on a human, you would fail. So. You know, I think one of my goal, I think the greatest gift we can give people in this abundant world is increased health span. I mean, when you think about what people want, they want happiness and they want health, right? No one wants to die in a painful cancer or dementia. So, and you know, I have extended to you many times my friend, come down to Felt and Health.
24:28Let me put you through our program. The world needs you around for another 30 years. Okay, well, what do you have any, what should I do? Let's say, well, I mean, so there are two. What actions can be taken? There are two quite - That's gonna be helpful. No, there are two. On the discussion. Yeah, so there are three things you need to know. Number one, is there anything going on inside your body that you don't know about? So the body is amazingly good at hiding disease. So we found in our seemingly healthy adults, 2 % have a cancer. They don't know about it. 2 .5 % of an aneurysm, 14 .4 % either have metabolic disease, coronary disease, neuro -generative disease.
25:18And so your body is incredibly good at hiding disease. So you don't actually feel any cancer until stage three or stage four. 70 % of all heart attacks have no precedence. Your body is compensating constantly. And for most of us, we know more about what's going inside that are cars or airplanes and we do our bodies. You had a question for you. How many sensors are going up on starship when you're launching? How many sensors are going on board that vehicle rough order magnitude getting back data? Well, I guess this, when you count everything up, there's several thousand sensors. And if I were, I mean, they're all 32 engines, so they count off of the bulk of the engine.
26:05Sure. But you also have stress sensors and looking what's going on in the structures and the avionics and communications across all the subsystems. And if I ask you how - 39 engines including the upper stage. So it's a several thousand sensors. Way more sensors than I'm gonna say if you if I ask you how many sensors do you have in your body and so we don't look which is insane because we do have the technology now to look to determine is there anything going on I need to know about and when's a good time to find out about like now? Or what's likely to break, what's likely to undergo failure cycles, and then what's the most extraordinary therapeutics available to extend the human life span?
26:48So, I mean for me that's a big one. Let me ask you another abundance theme which is education. I think that's a good question. Do you think any of our schools today, middle schools or high schools are preparing any of our kids for the future?
27:12Well, none that I know of. They might probably are a few schools that are doing it, but probably 99 % of schools are not. School's a very slow to change. And I think there is a thing to move away from teaching the fundamentals of writing well and math and history. I am concerned about the whole work agenda and ideology permeating through education. Agreed. And actually being destructive to your education. I mean, you know, how do you think, do you have any thoughts? I mean, so, in the day, I think our best, our best health care and our best teachers are going to be AIs, right? That understand everything and they demonetize and they democratize every aspect.
28:16I mean, the AI knows your kids' favorite color, sports star, movie star, what they know, the languages they know what they did today. I mean, it's a way of giving every child on the planet the best educated. I mean, you funded back years ago, if you remember the global learning ex -price that we did, we did a, that we demoed in Tanzania with AIs on tablets. It was the earliest days of A .I. Emaid Moustache, you know, was one of the winners of that competition who went on and how to create stability. I mean, the challenges, I don't think the educational systems are gonna give up that control anytime soon.
29:00Sure. Well, I mean, if I look at how my kids were educated, they seem to be mostly educated by YouTube and Reddit. And X as well as those. But they're constantly on the internet. That seems to be, and I guess a lot of kids these days take talk. Unfortunately. Yeah. So the education situation is problematic. That's what to do about it. I think ultimately, Khan Academy is one step in the right direction. But I think part of it is getting our educational institutions to first realize they're not preparing kids for the world that's coming. I mean, this hits another point. We are such linear thinkers, right?
29:57We're projecting what we have and putting it out four or five years. I don't think people, let me ask you, do you think people are ready for what the world's going to be like in 2030?
30:10pretty? No. I don't know what the world's going to be like in 2030. So probably I wouldn't say that I'm sorry we can't wait. We definitely live in the most interesting of time. You know, it's like this, like this Chinese saying that may live an interesting time is is not a good thing. But I mean, I think, I suppose I would like to live in the most interesting of times. And this is the most interesting of times. I also think it's the best time to be alive. Ever. Only time we're exciting in today is tomorrow. I mean, by what measure, yeah, we have environmental issues. But I think we have the best chance of solving those environmental issues with the technology we have now diverse technology we had 10 years ago.
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31:04Yeah, well, I generally think it's as a general sort of rule of living, it is, it is better to earn the side of being optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. If you're going to make, if you're going to earn one side or the other better, it's just a higher quality of life to earn on the side of being optimistic and risk being wrong than pessimistic, you know, and right. I mean, it's better to be, you'll just have a, you're just enjoy life. Yeah. Optimism is going to make you happy. There was a study of 14 ,000 people, it was 14 ,000 women and 1 ,500 guys. is and it showed that those with an optimistic mindset lived 14 to 15 % longer than those with a pessimistic mindset.
31:55Mind sets, a powerful thing. And I think undervalued by almost everybody. One of my favorite examples of this was, do you know what the environmental disaster of the 1880s and 1890s was? I'm sure you know.
32:13Is this back to Wales? No, no, no, no, it's it's another form of life. It's the horse manure disaster. The horses. Yes. What is this horse? Well, yeah, no, no, you're right. I mean, New York was basically a horse manure and and urine and carcass. It was terrible. People brought their motive power.
32:47If you think you're just thinking right now, wait, I mean, try it.
32:56Everywhere, you know, people, people moved from people moved into downtown New York, Detroit, Chicago, they brought their motive power with them. And, and the articles in the 1880s and 90s and into the 1900s, as you read this, the projection was disaster. It was going to be a disaster because Horace, Horace Minor was like, roe, they had like special parking lots for Horace shit in the corner of a street. Well, it seems like there's also a challenge because I think the keeper Horace lives, you know, for on the order of 15 years. That means one -fifteenth of all horses are kicking the bucket every year.
33:44So if you've got like three hundred thousand horses, it means you've got twenty thousand horses dropping dead every year. And then you need a horse to move the horse. Or you just cover it with horse manure or let it decompose. Yeah, I mean, it's gonna be like decomposing horse coccuses throughout major cities. But then, and then like it's like, well, who's horse dead horses is this? I'm people that probably create a claim a lot of horse, but not rushing to claim a claim. But then innovation came along and here comes the car and solves the problem. And I think that's the problem that we keep on forgetting.
34:27We forget that we are incredibly innovative at solving problems. That's what humans are amazing at. Yeah, yeah. True, true.
34:42Actually, on the whale fries, I don't know. Back to the whales. It's a whale of a tail. Whale tails. Okay. So a lot of people think that the low point on whale population was in the 1800s because whales were being hunted for whale. But actually the low point by far was in fact in the mid 20th century because of a pure or a critic in the Soviet Union. Okay. This I have to hear. I'm sure you're right. So they can't, so they would always have these five -year plans and quotas for whale tonnage. Now, it didn't actually have even a, whether the whale tonnage was usable tonnage. In any way, they just had a quota for whale tonnage.
35:46And what they were doing in the Soviet Union, so just keep increasing the quota of everything every year, every five years. So the whale tonnage just got higher and higher and higher. And if you're a captain and you had a high whale tonnage, you'd get a metal and a raise. And if your whale tonnage was low, you'd be sent to the gula. You get what you incentivize, baby. Yes, incentives matter. And so it got to, it just got to absurd levels. and you had Soviet whaling ships, like going into, you know, US and Australian waters to desperately trying to find whales. And they would catch the whale, weigh the whale, and then dump the cargo so forth.
36:33I mean, there's a whole, erudite rabbit hole that you can go down on this. And it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's basically a lesson in the, the follies of central planning. And this is the problem with keeping laws on the books way after their useful to society. Well, we do have a fundamental issue with the accumulation of laws and regulations because they are immortal and humans are mortal as we were just discussing the life extension. So naturally every year you're going to have this accumulation of laws and regulations. until eventually everything is illegal. Everything is illegal. Everything is illegal, yes.
37:21Nothing is allowed because you're overlapping laws and regulations in some of which are in fact contradict each other. So that's where you go left or right. Both left and right are in.
37:37Oh my god. You know, it's like space like, I mean, Chairman, the DOJ and this respect, in this particular case, where the DOJ is serving SpaceX for hiring only permanent residents and citizens of the U .S. The reason that we did this was because we were told very clearly that if we did not hire permanent residents of the United States, that would constitute a violation of international trade traffic and arms regulations, ITAR, and the entire executive team of SpaceX and the board would go to press. Sounds like a good motivation. Yes, and so we were literally told by the government in very clear terms, and you're well aware of ITAR.
38:25I am well aware what it is. Yes, it's a nightmare. And we would like to hire a person. Which, by the way, puts us in a non -competitive world against other nations? Yes, it's pretty bad. Then the DOJ is suing SpaceX for not hiring asylum seekers. The point here, not asylum, those who have been granted asylum, those who are seeking asylum. There's a lot of people seeking asylum. Yes, so we're damned if we do and damned if we don't. So if we hire someone who's not a president, we're breaking the law. And if we don't hire someone who's not a president, we're breaking the law. So this is an example of the madness that we're facing.
39:25But I want to compliment you on something which, and I've known you for long enough to have seen you gone through this, where you have bet everything over and over again. You bet your entire fortune got into debt to do the things that you believe in. And I have a question to ask you, which I've been dying to ask, and I'm gonna start making this known. There are so many billionaires on the planet who have tens of billions and hundreds of billions of dollars who are effectively sitting on it and not changing the world. not putting it in other than for increasing its return, which is not a bad thing.
40:09I think the more wealth and free energy there is out there to do things. But can you speak to that? I don't know if you're willing to, but there are a few people like Mark Benioff and Eric Schmidt and yourself top of the list who invest on making the world a better place, solving global grand challenges. Thoughts on that? On that open line too. Sorry, I just have some kids that suffer from it. No problem. Sort of family noises in the background. So, let's see. Yeah.
40:57Well, Well, yeah, I mean, I do think that smart people with resources should care about the good of civilization, the future of civilization, even if there are not particularly altruistic, because you cannot exist in absent civilization. If civilization collapses, it's all over. You know, there's like people have got like these sort of bunkers and other countries or why or whatever. I don't like listen, do you really think that you're going to make it in an apocalyptic situations?
41:46They'll come and find you in that bunker and they'll pry you out and get your stuff. And it's going to suck anyway. So really, small people with resources, any small person with resources, they just have some long term perspective. I mean, listen, it's you and Jeff Bezos right now who've got the biggest long term perspective. And I see, I'm just curious about how do you incentivize other people to really help the world accelerate and make the world a more productive place. Right, the best way to become a billionaire is help a billion people, the world's biggest problems, the world's biggest business opportunities.
42:39Do you believe that? Well, I guess maybe we should just talk to people more. I guess you just talking to them and I think if it's perhaps as raising the conscious awareness the fact that there is no living without civilization.
43:02One doesn't actually have to make an ultrasonic argument. you can actually make a, even a purely self -seeking argument, say like, be miserable without civilization. And if you want to know what life is like without civilization, just go try living in the forest naked for a day, and you will be naked and afraid, and quickly realize civilization is awesome.
43:36And we're so independent upon each other to enable the state of technology and capability we have today. You know, I'm curious, is there anything that you think that isn't becoming more abundant out there or anything that we have an abundance constraint on. I'll just mention, answer that for us. I want to come and talk about the carbon removal expires that you funded one second.
44:08You know, we're creating abundance of food, energy, water, healthcare, education. Are we constrained in any way? No, not really. No, I mean, no, I think I agree that the future most likely has abundant. We shouldn't be complacent about the future. Complace and see an entitlement are not a rest before success. But the most likely outcome is one of abundance of goods and services. That is something where we're headed. Yeah, when I saw you last, I think it's a mighty likely way where we're headed. Very likely, yeah. When I saw you last, you said, you know, definitely abundance after AGI. And I saw, you know, when you were talking about Optimus, which is awesome, by the way, let's just start with that, congratulations.
45:05Well, thanks. I mean, Optimus said, I need to make sure that Optimus isn't cause, it doesn't add to civilization or risk. You know, you know, like a billion of these things or with centralized control.
45:23I'm less, I'm less, I'm less, what can go wrong? Has anyone made a movie about that? Unless they obey you. Well, I don't think they should obey anyone. Oh, the organization. Yeah. I don't know. I think you have to have local control. But it has to be decentralized because any central control is going to be problematic. Because it could be the AROG AI takes, I mean, a list of the movie, a ROG AI, you know, Terminator takes over some of our games control of the mothership of that control, the, you know, the Optimus robots or something like that. That is, basically, it needs to be impossible for that to occur.
46:19No, let me ask you, I always love combining your companies because it's like, you know, It's like a Reese's peanut butter cup, Starlink and Starship together. How about Optimus Neuralink? When can I plug into an Optimus with my Neuralink connection?
46:45Well, hopefully the first near links will, the first near link in a human will probably be soon with the next, maybe this month or next. Now this is really just at first, just trying to give quadriplegic, quadriplegic and tetriplegic the ability to control their phone and computer. It's basically, like, the first product is telepathy, essentially.
47:20Telekinesis. And then the second product, sort of tentatively called blind site, where we can restore site even if somebody has lost both eyes and their optic nerves. Amazing. They're straight to the visual cortex. Yeah, exactly. Now, these things already work in monkeys. And I'd just like to reemphasize, no monkey has ever died because of a neural link. And we treat them extremely well. Last time I spoke to you about this, you were playing pong against Pager, I think. That's right. Actually, it turns out monkeys love playing video. They're really just like us. I mean, they love eating snacks and playing video games.
48:14I tell my 12 year old boys about that. Yeah. I mean, you see the video of Pedro playing, you know, Monkey Mind Pong, you know, just a telepathic playing pong telepathically, he's not restrained in any way. He's just sitting on the sort of tree brand. drinking smoothies and drinking smoothies drinking smoothie and playing pong. He's not held down, you know. In fact, he gets upset when we take his video game away. Just like, just like our kids. That's awesome. And this stuff, I mean, giving sight to the blind, I mean, it's biblical stuff. And this is again coming back to original kicking off the new year with a positive mindset with an abundance mindset, with an exponential mindset, with a moonshot mindset.
49:07And I hope you agree. I think for entrepreneurs and people listening, the single most important thing we have is our mindset, how we see the world. I mean, would you agree with that? Yeah. I mean, you can choose to be me. I mean, happiness is, I think, is a decision.
49:31I mean, it's largely... I mean, there's other people that have chemical and valeseness, but for most people, the difference between being happy and unhappy is deciding to be happy. Over the years, I've experimented with many intermittent fasting programs. The truth is I've given up on intermittent fasting as I've seen no real benefit when it comes to longevity. But this changed when I discovered something called Prolon's 5 -Day Fasting Nutrition Program. It harnesses the process of autophagy. This is a cellular recycling process that revitalizes your body at a molecular level. And just one cycle of the five day Prolon fasting nutrition program can support healthy aging.
50:14Fat focused weight loss, improved energy levels and more. It's a painless process and I've been doing it twice a year for the last year. You can get a 15 % off on your order when you go to my special URL. Go to prolonlife .com, P -R -O -L -O -N -L -I -F -E .com, backslash moonshot. Get started on your longevity journey with Prolon today. Now back to the episode. I want to take a second for everybody listening to point something out. You know, Ilana was 2021. I was texting with you and I said you should fund and another exprise. You fund it an exprise years ago on teaching kids in the middle of Tanzania, reading writing and arithmetic without any adults, no schools around just on a tablet.
51:01They were handed and the software had to teach them and it was an amazing success. and then in 21, I asked you if you'd do an X Prize on carbon removal. And you said yes almost instantly. And we launched it three months later. It was like the fastest yes to it, X Prize launch ever. So thank you for that. I want to give you a quick update on it if I could. You're welcome. Absolutely. Well, I hope the education X Prize and the carbon removal X Prize are resulting in a good opportunity. I'm sure we had 6 ,000 teams enter the carbon removal prize. We have 1 ,300 active teams in the competition right now as we down select.
51:45About 36 % 460 are focused on carbon capture. 430 are land related capture. 240 are ocean related capture. And we've given away 20 million of your money already, 5 million to students and 15 million to the top 15 teams. And the finals are coming up in two years in an Earth Day of 2025. And interestingly enough, you know, the winning team needs to demonstrate a megaton level capture that can scale to get a good level capture. And so just the final competition is going to capture four megatons of carbon, which is twice what's being done on annual basis today. So good progress so far. Great. Let's get here.
52:41Well, as we begin to wrap up, what other thoughts for people on abundance? What other mindset thoughts do you have for folks here?
53:01Well, I do think that both ways is too low for even. And as I'm always going on about that, just a longevity baby, I'm solving it with longevity and I keep people alive longer. Okay, we'll end robots and AI. Sure. But I mean, it just, the current situation is... Is grim. It's grim. Yeah, yeah. I mean, a lot of countries are, you know, if you look at say Korea... Italy. Yeah. Yeah, they're losing roughly half their population per generation. Yeah. That means that three generations, their one tenth of their current size and with the one tenth that remains being very old. Yeah, the numbers for folks, the replacement number is 2 .1 children per family on average.
53:58and Europe is at 1 .5. Asia dropped from 5 .7 in the 1950s to 1 .9 today, which is crazy. North America dropped from about 3 to 1 .6 where below the replacement level of the United States. And it is an issue. I mean, we need smart people on the planet. Yeah, well, I mean, if we don't make new humans, we won't have humanity. And even with longevity, we'll live longer, but we're not worth ever. So I think we just need, it's, you know, I'm concerned that like a lot of people think that the panel's planet is overpopulated and that's one of the things contributing to a low growth rate. And in fact, some people have encountered, I think they're basically being martyrs for not having kids.
54:57And that's just, it's just not true. I think we should take the position that we actually have a civic responsibility to have kids to at least keep the human population constant. Ideally, we should grow it, but we should at least not have population collapse, which which is what we currently have. I think people fear the future. And I mean, the conversations I've heard is I don't want to bring children into this world. It's too dangerous. AI is going to destroy humanity, the environment, you know, we're destroying the environment and so forth. So I think part of it is getting people to be optimistic about the future versus pessimistic, which is one of, as you said, beginning of this space is one of my missions.
55:47If people think the world is getting better and they have a hand in making it a better place, you most definitely do. Yeah, I think people should be optimistic about the future. They should, they can handle far more humans than currently exist. And the danger is not a population explosion, but population collapse. So I would just encourage as many people as possible to have kids. and I really have a lot of kids because they're gonna make up for those who are whatever reason don't. Fight extra battle wine tonight folks. Yeah, it's a big deal. So... Let's close out on the conversation of AI and AGI, which I know a lot of people are very interested in.
56:38And there's a real fear about AI. What would you say to dissuade people? I mean, I've heard you say 80 % probability we make it through and we need to protect it downside. Can you speak to that? How can people walk away more optimistic than pessimistic on this front? How do you think about, is it containment, is it shaping how we train our AI systems? How do you think we navigate our super in digital super intelligence?
57:21Well, the rate of which AI is growing is really boggles the mind. Yeah, so It currently seems as though the amount of compute dedicated to artificial intelligence is increasing by a factor of 10 roughly every six months. It's faster than annual, less for sure. So, I mean, I recently heard today about a gigawatt class, AI, computer cluster. Well, I think it's being built in Kuwait or something like that effect. And it's like 700 ,000 V100s, which is a couple of generations above two generations. So this is a staggering amount of compute. And there are many such things. That's just the biggest one I've heard of so far.
58:27But there are, there's a 500 megawatt installation happening. There's multiple hundred megawatt installations in the works. I don't even know what you do with that much compute. When you actually add up all human data ever created, you really just run out of things to train on quite quickly. like you know if you've got maybe I don't know 20 or 30 ,000 H100s you can train on synthetic data. Yeah, you basically you have to have synthetic data because for certainly well under 100 ,000 H100s you can train on all human data ever created including video. And it's not just the compute which is the major scarce resource, but it's also the number of entrepreneurs focusing in this area, the amount of capital that's going into this area, the amount of data available.
59:30I mean, it's all increasing, and it's all feeding on itself. And so it's just hitting your point about the speed at which it's progressing is, I think the word awesome comes to mind, or staggering. Yeah, it's really staggering and for sure. So I'm just trying to give a sense of scale. I've never seen anything move this fast. Any technology, this is the fastest moving thing. So in terms of aiming for AI safety, my best guess of my sort of primitive biological neural end is that we should aimed for maximum truth seeking and curiosity. That's my gut field for how to make AI safe as possible. The danger with programming morality and explicit, with an explicit morality program is what is sometimes referred to as the Waluigi problem.
1:00:40If you create Luigi, you automatically create Walla Wigee by inverting the Wigee.
1:00:48So I think we have to be careful about programming in sort of an arbitrary morality, but if we focus on maximizing truth with acknowledged error, that's probably, I think that's the the way to maximize safety and also to have the AI be curious. Because I think that Earth is much more interesting to an advanced AI with humans on it than without humans. I agree with you. Now, an interesting question of, Do you think vast intelligence comes significant empathy and respect for life? Yeah, I think so. Because that's the hope at the end of the rainbow here. That I don't want to use the word AGI. I'll use a digital super intelligence as a term with a digital super intelligence that is able to be more benevolent and support us, because sometimes I'm not sure us squishing meat sacks can make it through our own horseshit problems that we put together.
1:02:11So maybe there's a value there. I think on the whole AI is the single most important technology we've ever invented, and it is going to uplift all of humanity. I think it's what you said, you know, post -AGI comes abundance. I think it's the interim issues in the next one to four years, right? It's not artificial intelligence, it's human stupidity. Yeah. Well, I mean, one way that AI could go wrong is if the... Extinctionist philosophy is programmed into the AI, with implicitly or explicitly. I mean, probably not explicitly, but there's a strong danger of an implicit extinctionist philosophy being programmed into AI.
1:03:01And what would that look like? What would that look like? Well, there's this guy on the front page of New York Times about a year ago. He's head of the extinctionist society. And he's literally quoted as, there are 8 billion people on Earth, and we better if there are none. Oh, my God. And yeah, so if you take the extreme environmentalist argument, especially the implicit extreme environmentalist argument, there's an implicit conclusion that humans are a plague on the surface of the earth. So I think we have to be quite careful about an implicit. that like if the extinctionist movement was somehow programmed into AI as the optimization, that would be obviously extremely dangerous.
1:03:56Just say the least. Yeah. But there are people, quite a few people actually, who view humanity as a blind on the surface of the Earth. And we are coming down to, there is the accelerationist movement, the decelerationist movement, the boomers and the doomers. But I think people forget to realize, or don't realize, forget the fact that we romanticize the past. And the past life was short, brutish, and you were dead by 40. The life that we enjoyed today is a result of the extraordinary technology that we brought to bear. Yeah, so the Hobbs Life is Nazi -Burish and George. I actually had a little Yorkshire Terrier once who was a Nazi -Burish and George and kept kept fighting people, so I called him up.
1:05:01Perfect. I would tell friends that they came over, watch out for the dog. And they'd look at this miniature Yorkshire terry and laugh, and then they'd think, you would tend to bite them on the ankle. And I said, watch out for the dog. You know, that extinctionist meme is the same sort of, you know, it until it starts being a mine virus in part as you've called it and it starts disrupting us. Yeah.
1:05:41If you convince people that we're running out of resources on Earth that there are too many people in the world and the only way to survive is to have far fewer people, which a lot of people are believed to be the case. And like I said, if that somehow gets programmed into AI and that AI becomes those powerful AI, then we're in deep trouble. Yeah, we need a counter force to the population bomb. I mean, we're an extraordinary disservice to humanity. Yeah. That Alex book was terrible nightmare. Maybe the most anti -human book ever. Yeah, for sure.
1:06:26But get people hope on the flip side here. Those who are saying again going back to I don't want to bring up my children because I hear this all the time and I'm sure you do too in an age where AI is going to destroy us. So short -term problems, long -term problems, short -term solutions, long -term solutions, you said make it curious, make it maximum truth seeking 100%. Is it okay to say that we're going to have issues in the short term and we're going to have to deal with them? Or do you think - They want to be - there will be some issues. I mean, this is a speech. At this point, no way to sub -AI.
1:07:13It is accelerating with people like it or not. I mean, that's why together with a number of really small people, we created XAI.
1:07:27And hopefully some really small humans will continue to join XAI and build what is intended to be a maximally true seeking and maximally curious AI.
1:07:46Anyway, I think that's really important. So Elon, listen, on behalf of those of us, and I think everybody here listening who are pro -humanity and pro -uplifting humanity and making us a multi -planetary species and living a longer healthier life. And the one place that disagreed with you on X is on, you know, having people live longer. You don't, people don't need to die for there to be new ideas, you know, that the CEO of Ford and GM didn't have to die for Tesla to come into existence. So, we're, yeah. You know, I wanted to say thank you for all that you're doing and setting a model for other industrialists and entrepreneurs out there to take on and solve big huge problems.
1:08:46Well, thank you. I would encourage people to be optimistic about the future. Like, or on the side of optimism. You will be happier for it. And as you pointed out, probably live longer. So I'm not totally against like extension. I think we did, we, you know, we want to be, I don't think we want to necessarily have people live forever. That's what we're looking for very long, like thousands of years that I think that would potentially lead to ossification of society. But it would, I think lead to ossification of society. But I mean, solving dementia and, you know, carrying cancer, I think are good things.
1:09:31things obviously. So I'm not sure we're actually that far apart on the live extension thing. I think we're probably mostly in agreement. Yeah, we just want to have like, you know, can you look for like, do you want Kim Jong -un living for a thousand years? No, but I'd like, I'd like Elon Musk and Peter D. the man just living for 150 years. And a few other thousand amazing entrepreneurs out there. Sure. So it's a, you know, there is a challenge that, like a lot of people that really never change their mind, they just die. And this is actually, I'm not sure who originally said this, but even in physics, where, which is extremely rigorous,
1:10:25that physics in a lot of cases has advanced one death at a time. My friend Brian Keating, who's an astrophysicist, reminded me of that. And maybe it was true, but in this world of entrepreneurship, I think we do live with a meritocracy to a large degree. And the best ideas can bubble up to the top faster than ever before, especially with AI now where you can build companies, you know, extraordinary companies with a couple of people in a lot of tech. So, yeah. I have one last question and then I know it's dinner time there. the future of X -A -I, what's your vision there, pal?
1:11:19Well, another thing. I think the path to AI safety is to both AI that is maximally true -seeking with acknowledged error that is maximally curious. And I think that that is most likely lead to a get outcome for humanity because we are much more interesting than not humanity. I'm a big fan of Mars, but Mars is much less interesting because there's no human civilization there. And if you take humans, for example, we could hunt down all of the chimpanzees and kill them, but we don't. In fact, we make efforts to preserve their habitats.
1:12:15Anyway, I think that that is the path to a great future and a maximally positive AIs to be rigorously truth -seeking, always acknowledging some amount of error and and maximally curious. That's the goal of XDIs and you know the company motto is understand the universe. And it's a it's a good mission and one that's going to take a bit of time. I can't wait till the first AI is able to come up with new theories of physics and innovations. That's going to be, I mean, I don't think it's far away and I think that's going to be one of the most awesome times ever to be alive. True. Like, we definitely live in the most interesting times.
1:13:16And I actually, for a while, I was kind of depressed about AI. But then I kind of got fatalistic about it and said, well, even if AI was going to end all humanity, would I prefer to be around to see it or not? I guess I would prefer to be around to see it just out of curiosity. But obviously, hopefully AI is extremely beneficial to humanity. But the thing that sort of reconciled me to be less anxious about it was to say, well, I guess even if it was a apocalypse, I could still be curious to see the... It's like, you know, I was being curious to see it. I remember I was at your birthday party at one of your homes here in L .A.
1:14:07before you sold them. And Larry Page was there and Sergey was there. and we were having a conversation about living in a simulation. And the notion was, this is, we're in the 99th level of the gameplay, and this has got to be a simulation, because you couldn't, why would be alive right now in this single most interesting time? And then the only comment was, don't poke the simulation or all that whole end. Yeah. Well... If we are in a simulation, the way to keep the simulation going is to keep being interesting. So humans run lots of computer simulations because we don't know what the outcome is going to be.
1:14:57And we're curious to see, we'll run lots of simulations. Like test will run crash simulations and space next will run rocket flight simulations. and we only stop doing the simulations when the outcome is extremely predictable and boring. Yes. So if we're in some alien... That's a great argument that is perfect. Right. When it's absolutely known... If we're not entertaining enough to the digital gods or the universe gods, they'll end the sim. Yeah. We just need to make sure we keep the ratings up.
1:15:37But also I think one of the ways to predict the future is that the most entertaining outcome is the most likely, as seen by a third party, as though we were an alien soap opera. I love that. Yeah, so it's not necessarily good for those in the soap opera. like you could be watching a World War One movie and seeing, you know, people get blown up. And you're just eating popcorn and drinking a soda. But we're in the movie. Yeah. Well, let's not get to stope in here because I think we can have a really positive outcome of a lot of other cool stuff. Yeah. Sure. I think most like the outcome is positive.
1:16:30And I think that's partly a self -loved and only prophecy. If you don't believe so, if you believe it's going to be a dystopian outcome, then you're going to be back on your heels protecting yourself, not investing in the future. And it unravels. And so I think the message of this entire space is, this is the most extraordinary time to be alive, most exciting time to be alive. a time where a lot of individuals listening on the spaces has more power than kings or queens or heads of nations had just a few decades ago. And it doesn't take a government or a large corporation to solve a problem anymore.
1:17:12An entrepreneur with a few H -200s can do a good job. Yeah, I think we should err on the side of optimism. We should err on the side of optimism and we should have kids. Like, you know, to err is human. And to H .E. I .R. And to reproduce is human.
1:17:40Thank you so much for your time. Thanks for sharing. Hey, welcome. All right. Thanks, Peter. Take care, buddy. Bye. Why do I see anything?
From the publisher
In this episode, Peter and Elon hop on X Spaces to discuss Data-driven optimism, solving grand challenges, uplifting humanity, Digital Super Intelligence, Longevity, Education, and Abundance in 2024.
12:42 | The Revolution of Communication Technology
22:12 | Redefining Overpopulation and Healthspan
1:10:05 | The Quest for Safe AI
Elon Musk is a businessman, founder, investor, and CEO. He co-founded PayPal, Neuralink, and OpenAI, founded SpaceX, and is the CEO of Tesla and the Chairman of X.
Listen to spaces on X: https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/1742713338549997884?s=20
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