In short
Why it’s hard for the U.S. to restart a big “oil boom,” despite political calls to drill more and recent oil price spikes; includes discussion of cost/breakevens, capital discipline, and how quickly supply can respond.
Guests
Jack McClendon, CEO of Sienna Natural Resources (independent upstream producer focused largely on conventional reservoirs). Background: grew up in the shale industry; son of Aubrey McClendon (shale gas/oil pioneer). Sienna buys undercapitalized, underappreciated producing assets and tries to lower costs and extract more from existing wells.
Key claims
U.S. supply response is constrained by “higher for longer” price needs (he suggests sustained >$80 for 4–8 months). Costs rose ~25–30% over five years (people, power, chemicals) and tariffs raised steel/aluminum; recent capital spending is cautious because service costs lag and volatility is extreme. Investor incentives shifted post-shale bust toward shareholder returns, reducing boom-bust expansion.
Notable examples
Baker Hughes rig count trending sideways/slightly down since 2023; 2022 price spike (fear of Russian supply loss) led to authorized capex at ~$100 but production came when oil fell back toward ~$70; service day rates and chemical prices rose with oil and may not fall quickly when prices drop.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOExploring the U.S. Oil Industry
2:00 to 3:00
Discussion on the current state and challenges of the U.S. oil industry.
“Big drop in the price of oil today on the headlines, the growing optimism that I think a ceasefire will endure.”
Challenges in Oil Production
3:00 to 4:15
Hosts discuss rig counts and the complexities of boosting oil production.
“You know, we were in Alaska last summer and I think one of my favorite parts of that trip was talking to that company that made the steel tubing for oil companies up on the north shore, the north slope.”
Introducing Jack McClendon
4:15 to 5:30
Hosts welcome guest Jack McClendon and discuss his oil company.
“energy and, you know, letting everyone, including your grandma, drill.”
Understanding Sienna Natural Resources
5:30 to 7:30
Jack explains the business model and operations of his oil company.
“We're going to be speaking with Jack McClendon, CEO of the small oil and gas company called Sienna Natural Resources.”
Starting an Oil Company Amidst Challenges
7:30 to 9:00
Jack shares insights on starting his company during the shale bust.
“Not just if you were in the energy specifically, but also if you were in other parts of the market, like the debt market at that time.”
Conventional vs. Unconventional Oil Production
9:00 to 10:20
Discussion on the differences between conventional and unconventional oil reservoirs.
“the conventional reservoirs or the better reservoirs, they've largely been exploited.”
The Role of Maps in Oil Production
10:20 to 11:50
Jack discusses the importance of maps in the oil and gas industry.
“And so there was real concern and, you know, really, really some fears of, you know, what happens if, you know, oil runs out.”
Cultural Reflections from 'Landman'
11:50 to 13:10
Exploration of cultural themes and accuracy in the show 'Landman'.
“One of the things I know about him was that he is a famed map, a huge map collector.”
Gender Representation in the Oil Industry
14:00 to 14:42
Discussion on gender representation in the oil industry as portrayed in media.
“And that they the men think it's like a great show.”
Cost Evolution in the Oil Industry
16:19 to 18:16
In-depth discussion on the evolution of operational and capital costs in the oil sector.
“Talk to us a little bit about the evolution of your costs as a business in the last several years, but also maybe in the last year.”
Show all 23 chapters
Shale Growth and Capital Discipline
18:16 to 20:34
Exploration of capital discipline and its effects on shale production after market disruptions.
“What I will tell you, though, is recently, and this is kind of a couple months, there has been some slack in those markets.”
Investor Expectations and Market Dynamics
20:34 to 22:20
Analysis of how investor expectations shape capital allocation and market dynamics in energy.
“And how difficult was it for you to compete with some potentially bigger players who are also fighting for that same capital?”
Financing Structures in Oil Business
22:20 to 26:20
Discussion on the structures of financing deals in the oil industry and their implications.
“And some of that is due to geologic constraints, although, you know, I will reiterate kind of never, never to underestimate the ingenuity of the American oil man.”
Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations
26:20 to 28:03
Insights into how rising oil prices affect operational strategies and investor behavior.
“Maybe give you a little bit more credit for reserves you have that are not currently being produced.”
Oil Price Dynamics and Industry Sentiment
28:03 to 29:51
Explore the influence of oil prices on production and industry caution.
“and so we need prices to kind of stimulate more production.”
The Impact of Market Volatility
29:51 to 32:17
Understand how market volatility affects planning in the oil industry.
“And, you know, this is not some Chinese super cycle like you had in the early ops, right?”
Politics and the Oil Industry
35:04 to 39:44
Analyze the relationship between politics and oil production dynamics.
“Getting burnt seems like just as much as part of the industry is making a lot of money and you get it on both sides in 2015.”
Evolving Nature of Shale Production
39:44 to 42:00
Discuss the changes in shale production responsiveness over time.
“You know, as you mentioned, we've observed, everyone's observed this, that actually the oil industry is like, why do they hate Democrats so much?”
The Current State of Shale Oil Production
42:00 to 43:24
Explore how the shale oil industry has evolved and its current challenges.
“Yeah, I've got young kids and, you know, working on growing a business.”
Industry Resilience and Mindset
43:24 to 45:58
Discuss the psychological traits and resilience required in the oil industry.
“And I just people who don't live in the space, I think, just don't do not realize how much more efficient these companies have become at drilling these wells.”
The Impact of Oil Production on Global Stability
45:58 to 47:18
Understand the role of American oil production in global geopolitics and stability.
“And so I think there's a tremendous amount of pride in that as well, too.”
The Challenges of Refining Capacity
47:18 to 48:22
Examine the mismatch between oil production and refining capacity in the U.S.
“Jack McClendon, really appreciate talking to you.”
Volatility in Oil Markets
48:22 to 50:38
Analyze the volatility of oil prices and the industry's response to market changes.
“supply and enabling people to keep drilling even when the benchmark price is really low.”
Transcript
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1:40Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio.
1:44Tracy Alloway:News.
1:55Tracy Alloway:Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, recording this April 17th. Big drop in the price of oil today on the headlines, the growing optimism that I think a ceasefire will endure. Anything could happen. But at least for now, it appears the extreme left tail scenario, like$200 oil, maybe off the table. Right. So I'm looking at a chart of WTI at the moment, which might be a little hint as to our guests that we're about to introduce. But it's currently at around$83 a barrel down. The hint was that you didn't say Brent. Right. Yeah, good hint.
2:36Tracy Alloway:Yeah, come on. It's a good hint. Yeah, it's a good hint. Although everyone can already see the headline on this episode if they clicked into it. But anyway, it was at one hundred and twelve dollars per barrel in March or actually in early April. God, time flies when you're talking energy crisis and war in the Gulf. You know, even setting aside the war, however, there's a lot that I've been very curious about the future of the U.S. oil industry. You know, we were in Alaska last summer and I think one of my favorite parts of that trip was talking to that company that made the steel tubing for oil companies up on the north shore, the north slope.
3:11Oh, yes.
3:11Tracy Alloway:For the companies up there. The North Shore. Yeah, the North Shore of Alaska. Like it's Long Island. You know, the way steel prices were going to affect the break-even costs of American oil producers, et cetera, and the interaction of tariffs and higher services costs, et cetera. And we know that the U.S. produces a lot of oil, and it's an exporter, but prices went up. And Chris Wright, he went down to Cyril Week a few weeks ago. He's like, please produce more. But as you've been writing about, the ring counts have been going the other direction. Yeah, that's right. Right. So, I mean, this was also part of the Iran story, this idea that, well, if we get a huge hike in the price, if oil is going to be above$100 per barrel, then maybe we'll see some sort of supply response in the U.S., right?
3:51But if you look at the Baker Hughes oil and gas rig count, it's basically been trending sideways. In fact, the last available data, it fell by three. And then if you go out even further, you know, it's kind of been going sideways and slightly down since basically 2023. So, you know, we haven't seen a big supply side push. And that's despite a lot of noise coming out from the administration about unleashing U.S. energy and, you know, letting everyone, including your grandma, drill.
4:24Tracy Alloway:You know, getting it right, it's tricky for all administrations, right? In theory, it's like, oh, yeah, let's produce more. There was a lot of production actually under Biden, but the administration didn't want to brag about it. It's kind of weird. And then you have an administration that does want to brag about it, but they're like, oh, and now there's a bunch of Venezuelan oil on the market, unsanctioned. So what does that mean? Anyway, here's the other thing. I'm really into the show Landman, and I really just want to talk about it. I knew. This is just an excuse for you to talk about Landman.
4:48That's correct. That's fine.
4:49Tracy Alloway:I've got to talk to someone who's just out there, independent, small oil and gas company, because I have a million questions about how realistic that is. I like it every time we get to talk about Christmas trees of like valves and spools and casings. There you go. Well, we really do. This is an episode for both of us. You really have written a lot about the technology of oil production for a long time. Well, I wrote one article and then I think I revisited it. But it had one of my favorite headlines of all time and one of my favorite ever leads. But the headline was how actual nuts and bolts are bringing down oil prices.
5:21There you go. And it was about standardization of oil drilling parts.
5:25Tracy Alloway:Well, we really do have the perfect guest. someone who is in the game, actually got skin in the game in this space. We're going to be speaking with Jack McClendon, CEO of the small oil and gas company called Sienna Natural Resources. Jack, I've wanted to have you on the podcast a long time. So thrilled you're here. Why don't you tell us what's Sienna Natural Resources? What's your business? Yeah, sure. Thanks for having me on. Yeah, we're just a small, independent oil and gas producer. So we operate in the part of the segment called the upstream oil and gas industry. So that is the actual direct companies that extract the hydrocarbons from the ground.
6:04And so, yeah, our business is a little bit different from a lot of the publicly traded companies that you see, you know, the Exxon's and the Diamondbacks of the world who are drilling kind of horizontal shale wells. There are many more companies that are much more similar to mine. You know, the horizontal shale game has largely become the domain of very large companies. I mean, you've got to have scale to be able to operate in that space. We're largely a production company. So the way to kind of think about it is, you know, we buy assets that we think are undercapitalized, underappreciated, try to squeeze a little bit more juice out of each producing well and try to get cost down.
6:41Although there are smaller companies that do do drilling. And we have drilled in the past and we will likely drill in the future as well, too.
6:49Tracy Alloway:Would you say you're essentially going around and buying odd lots of oil and gas assets that other companies may not be getting the best out of? Yeah, you could you could say that. I mean, a lot of just as I said, a lot of the assets that we're targeting are just they're just too small. You know, they're rounding errors, you know, on the balance sheets of these large shale companies who, you know, are buying tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of acres and drilling, you know, two to three miles under the ground. So it's just we produce the same product. It's just a very different business.
7:20And I'm reading here. It says you started this business in 2018, which I find really fascinating because 2014, 2015, the shale bust was an incredibly painful moment in time. Not just if you were in the energy specifically, but also if you were in other parts of the market, like the debt market at that time. And there was crazy stuff going on at that time, like people talking about oil going down to like zero. I remember being in a restaurant and well, eventually it went to negative 40. It did go negative, but that was different. But I remember being in a restaurant and I was talking to my husband about oil prices at that time.
7:55And some random guy like overheard us at the next table and got up and said like oil is going down to I think it was either 20 bucks a barrel or zero and then just like left the restaurant.
8:05Tracy Alloway:That's weird. So it was like a very strange time in the oil market. And yet you decided to start a shale company at that time. What was the thinking? I'm going to I'm going to correct you quickly and then and then go back into context. So it's not a shale business. OK, sure. We operate largely conventional reservoirs. And so, you know, the way to kind of think about it is shale is what is called unconventional. So conventional reservoirs have much higher porosity and permeability. They are actually much better reservoirs from a geologic standpoint. And so for the most part, you'll hear it in the industry parlance.
8:39Those were the easy, the easy reservoirs to find. Right. If you go back to like the 1920s, 1930s, you know, drilling a field like the Yates field, which is kind of one of the most prolific oil fields, you know, you were basically drilling a thousand feet into the ground vertically. and they were getting, you know, 400 to 500 to 1 ,500 barrel a day IPs, you know. So it's just the conventional reservoirs or the better reservoirs, they've largely been exploited. So when you say shale company, that's the unconventional reservoirs. And so that was the rock that largely was thought it was impossible to produce.
9:13And really until the advent of horizontal development, not horizontal development so much as a hydraulic fracturing, it was because the pore space was just too small. And so there was no way to commercially extract oil and gas from those reservoirs. We knew the oil and gas was there. We just couldn't get it out. So that's just a little point of distinction there. That's the difference kind of between a conventional and an unconventional reservoir. So most of what we operate is conventional reservoirs. So these are reservoirs that were found anywhere from 70 to 100 years ago and have largely been exploited, but still have plenty of oil and gas kind of left to offer.
9:50And so just a little bit of my background. So I kind of grew up in the shale space. You know, my father obviously played a pretty instrumental role in bringing shale gas and shale oil kind of to mainstream America. You know, I'll remind you back in 2005, and it's kind of hard to believe now, that there was a lot of fears that America was actually running out of oil and gas production. I mean, I think it was as early ago as 2004 to 2005, the country was only producing about 5 million barrels a day and, you know, importing anywhere between 19 to 20 million barrels a day. And so there was real concern and, you know, really, really some fears of, you know, what happens if, you know, oil runs out.
10:29And lo and behold, we have this shale revolution. And one of my favorite quotes is, never underestimate the ingenuity of the American oil man. And I just think it's a testament to the tenacity and grit and intelligence of our industry, largely maligned by pretty big segments of the company that do not realize how much this has transformed our country. You know, we've gone from producing, you know, anywhere from 5 million barrels a day. Now we are now we're the largest oil and gas producer in the world. We produce more oil than any company in any country in the world. And so, you know, it's just it's kind of gone unnoticed.
11:06And so I, you know, I wanted to kind of get out and bring that up. Sorry, I'm so used to saying shale as a byword for U.S. oil production. I get the distinction between the horizontal drilling and what you guys are doing. And that's fair. And the majority of oil production in America right now is from shale. The largest conventional fields are largely in Alaska. You guys just mentioned the North Slope. Most of Alaska is conventional. But the Permian Basin and a lot of the other big shale basins, I mean, that's where the majority of the oil comes from these days. I mean, you know, out of that 13 million barrels a day, you know, at least five comes from the Permian and that's mostly from shale.
11:43So it's I think it's fine to kind of conflate the two, to be honest. That's where most of the capital goes. And that's where most of the oil comes from.
11:49Tracy Alloway:You mentioned growing up in the business and your dad's role in making America the energy behemoth that is today, your dad being Aubrey McClendon. One of the things I know about him was that he is a famed map, a huge map collector. And I kind of feel like all oil and gas people get really into maps. And you tilt your camera. And I was like, is that map to your right shoulder? It looks like Texas, a map of Texas. Is that one of your dad's, part of your dad's map collections? No, it's not part of his collection, but I did inherit a lot of his loves. And one of them is I also love maps. That's an old map of Texas and Oklahoma, which was Indian territory back in the 1800s.
12:29I think that map was, I think this map was made in like 1870. 1970. So I do really appreciate vintage maps. And so, yeah, you'll see that in the back end. And that that may be particular to the oil and gas industry as well, too, because any good oil man, if you walk into a conference room, they're going to have maps up because you kind of got to know where you're drilling and what acreage you own. And as you said, there's probably a lot of that in Landman. Well, I noticed you don't have a poster of Billy Bob Thornton in your office. However, I asked this question on behalf of Joe. How accurate is Landman in your experience?
13:03I mean, there are certain aspects. Obviously, that that famous windmill speech that he makes is how a lot of people, a lot of people in our industry feel. And I believe it's the truth. A lot of it is obviously there's plenty of exaggerations. I don't know too many landmen who have had a gun held to their head from from a member of the cartel. There's a lot of truth in the industry.
13:23Tracy Alloway:And then going into business with the financial backer of the cartel. It's a little weird. Anyway. Yeah. Wait, no spoilers. Sorry. Yeah, yeah, sorry. I'm an imperfect narrator for that as well, too, because I will admit that I have not watched the show maybe as religiously as other people that have watched it. Actually, there's another element of Landman. This is going to be a little bit far afield from oil business questions, but this is something I've heard. And feel free to answer this with any level of tact or delicacy. I have heard that a lot of the wives of the oil industry don't like it as much as the men do because of the high degree of sexualization of both Billy Bob Thornton's wife and daughter in the show.
14:05Tracy Alloway:And that they the men think it's like a great show. It shows our industry and that actually there's some gender families in the patch in the space in the industry. There's some gender divide on the show. Does that resonate? You know, as I said, my wife watched two episodes with me and she said, this is ridiculous. OK, well, then I'm OK. OK, well, there you go. So so maybe maybe that's maybe I'll just leave it at that.
14:42Hey, Fidelity. What's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app? Start with as little as$1 with no account fees or trade commissions on U.S. stocks and ETFs. Hmm. That's music to my ears. I can only talk.
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16:18Tracy Alloway:Okay, let's talk a little bit of economics. Alex, even before the recent war in Iran, we wanted to talk because I am very interested in just like what's happening to your costs and breakevens, particularly in the wake of tariffs, in the wake of ongoing services inflation, in the wake of a big dash for commodities, because there's so much building data centers, etc. Talk to us a little bit about the evolution of your costs as a business in the last several years, but also maybe in the last year. Yeah, no, sure. I'm happy to do that. And, you know, I won't tell you anything that you guys maybe haven't already heard, but costs in general, you know, our costs are kind of allocated into two buckets, right?
16:58You have your operating expenses, which are kind of fixed and variable costs. Those are the day-to-day costs to run a business, whether that's paying your people who are actually out in the field, you know, the cost of chemicals to treat your wells, the prices you pay for electricity to power your wells. And then you have your capital costs, which are, you know, largely tangible and intangible goods, right? So the, you know, the day rate of cost to drill, the amount you pay to drill a well, the amount you actually pay for the physical tools and equipment that actually go into a well, you know, that's steel and metal and other human labor.
17:31What I will tell you is since COVID, and this is, as I said, not unique to us, is, you know, costs have gone up, you know, personnel costs are up. And, you know, back in the day in COVID, you know, salaries went up across the board. And, you know, as well as I do, once you raise salaries, it's very hard to get those back down. Chemical costs have gone up. Utility costs have gone up. You know, so costs in general are up, I would say, about 25 to 30 percent for my business really over the last five years. And as I said, a lot of that is power. A lot of that is chemicals. The biggest chunk of that is people.
18:09You know, people costs have kind of gone up across the industry. Capital costs, tariffs obviously have had a material impact on the price of steel and the price of aluminum. Those have largely gone up. What I will tell you, though, is recently, and this is kind of a couple months, there has been some slack in those markets. And a big part of that is kind of due to what you identified with the Baker Hughes rig count, you know, with prices kind of hovering in the 50s and 60s with those rising costs. The industry is just not as profitable as it once was at 50 or 60. And so, you know, there was really starting to be some slack in the rig market, some slack in the frack fleet market.
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18:46And, you know, quite frankly, all of that leads to a little bit of pricing deflation. And so generally speaking, I would say costs are up across the board, 20 to 30 percent, even though recently, especially on the capital side, you've seen a little bit of a decrease. And that is largely due to the fact that the price has been depressed and the industry was just not as profitable as it once was. And the other thing I'll mention as well, too, and this is largely due to efforts of companies like Kimmerich. And when I say companies, I mean investors. One of the big reasons you had such prolific shale growth, especially in the 2010s, was compensation, executive compensation was tied to production growth.
19:25And so you had a lot of incentives across the board to kind of grow production at all costs. And due to, as I said, you know, there have been a couple of shale busts, right? There was that shale bust in 15 and 16. And then you have another, you know, you've had another kind of shale bust when COVID came along. And along those, they've reformed a lot of those incentives. And so, you know, companies are increasingly rewarded for rewarding shareholders versus focusing on kind of production growth. You know, this is exactly what I wanted to talk to you about, which is the capital situation, because one of the running themes on our show is this idea that you can have these boom-bust cycles that then leave a lasting scar on the industry.
20:05And I think coming out of the bursting of the shale bubble, a lot of energy producers suddenly decided, well, we're not just going to spend a bunch of money to expand. We're actually going to pay dividends to our investors. And it's all about capital discipline and being very, very certain about what we're actually spending on and the return for investors. What's the capital situation been like for you? Just, you know, going from 2018 to now, how hard was it to actually convince investors that, you know, you're not just going to spend money in an unconstrained way? And how difficult was it for you to compete with some potentially bigger players who are also fighting for that same capital?
20:47I'll break that into two parts. You know, I think I think the industry has had to do a lot of explaining and a lot of, you know, there's been a lot of kind of show me, you know, investors wanting to see that there actually is going to be some capital discipline. And I think if you look really over the last two years, we've seen that. And I think even with this latest price spike, you've seen that. I mean, people aren't rushing to deploy rigs. I mean, you've had one large company, Continental Resources, because one of the largest private companies say they're going to increase CapEx. But I think for the most part, the industry has been able to attract more capital by actually showing that discipline.
21:26And I think part of that, too, is just you've had a lot of consolidation in the industry, right? I mean, when I was first getting started as an investment banking analyst in 2008, I don't have the number off the top of my head, but it felt like there were 70 to 80 kind of publicly traded companies. And now, I mean, with all due respect to lots of kind of midsize companies, there's really only about 10 companies that actually matter, right? As far as the publicly traded companies go. And And the two biggest ones who have really kind of started to corral the market for shale or Exxon and Chevron.
21:57Right. And those guys, those guys have massive, massive balance sheet, integrated operations. And yeah, I mean, you just you know, it's just a little bit kind of different. There's still a cowboy element to it for sure. But yeah, I mean, I think in order to attract capital, the industry has had to show discipline. And I think we've done a pretty good job of doing that over the last two years. I mean, the kind of the days of a million barrel a day growth year over a year are largely gone. And some of that is due to geologic constraints, although, you know, I will reiterate kind of never, never to underestimate the ingenuity of the American oil man.
22:33But I think another part of that is obviously due to capital. And, you know, you've had two to three crashes really in the last 10 years. And so, you know, investors, investors really are kind of holding everybody's feet to the fire on that. And then I'll say is kind of as it pertains to my business, you know, as I said, there are a lot more of my businesses than there are of large shale companies. I mean, this is the business of operating older oil and gas assets. Right. And like any business, when things are older, they break more. And so, yeah, no, it's difficult and it's challenging. Right.
23:03Because you have a lot of volatility and, you know, you're dealing with wells where operating costs are higher. Right. We move more water, so I need more electricity per well to move more water. Our operating costs are higher. And so you've got to do a little bit more convincing on that cost discipline side when you're raising capital. But what I would tell you is that the pockets of capital that I'm kind of talking to are going to be very different than the pockets of capital that the larger shale guys are talking to. I mean, for the most part, the large shale companies are either publicly traded.
23:35And so you're talking to, you know, people that invest in public markets or their large institutionally backed private equity capital. Right. So you have really kind of four to five large energy private equity backed firms, most of them in Houston and Dallas. And, you know, they wield large sums of capital kind of in the nine, you know, nine to 10 figure range. And for the most part, that's who's backing shale. You've got to have scale now. It's a consolidation game. And yeah, it's just it's different from my company where we're largely kind of talking to family offices, alternative investment vehicles, you know, people who are looking to put smaller quantums of capital to work, you know, to kind of find a unique way to play the space.
24:20Because really, for these larger companies, it's it's the Permian or bust. Right. I mean, that's that's really that's really kind of the story.
24:26Tracy Alloway:This is great because this allows me to bring it back to Landman again, which is that the Cooper character, it seems like his business is kind of like yours. He went around and there were these old wells that were producing something. And he's like, there's probably more potential. And then this was like the key thing. He went out to some like small hard money lender that was based out of Fort Worth and they gave him a good he gave him a good deal. And then the dad said, there's no way the deal could be that good because I know how financing works. So like there must be a catch here and there was.
24:57Tracy Alloway:I won't get into it. But talk to us about the structure. OK, so it sounds like you're kind of like Cooper because you're finding these wells that other people may like be ready to discard. You're going to non-PE scale financiers, although his was, again, related to organized crime. I assume yours isn't. But talk to us about some of the terms of like, what is it like? Is it like you're going to pay me back 100 percent plus 20 percent interest until we break even? And like, how are some of these financing deals structured? Yeah, no, that's a really good point. I mean, you know, largely what I found is on the equity side, it is similar to traditional private equity, right?
25:35But, you know, money is invested and then you get money back plus a rate of return. And then you have a waterfall structure, which is based on return to capital. And that can be, you know, either kind of based on an IRR basis or on an ROI kind of absolute return of capital. I've seen it both ways, but that's kind of largely the way that the equity capital works. So it is actually pretty similar to a lot of the traditional private equity firms. On the debt side, it's largely bank capital, which is kind of 7 % to 8%. And then there are some of these alternative firms. And so these are more kind of structured credit providers.
26:08There are some that largely just operate in the energy space. And you're paying 400 to 500 basis points above what you would pay a bank. But they're willing to lend a little bit more aggressively against the collateral. Maybe give you a little bit more credit for reserves you have that are not currently being produced. And, you know, they'll ask for a little bit of upside. So whether that's in the form of like an overriding royalty payment. So just think about that as like a basically just a cut of the revenue. It's like similar to like a royalty deal in music. So for every barrel that gets produced, maybe they get a little bit of percentage.
26:43And this is obviously after they've gotten their money back. And so the way the capital works for my business is not all that dissimilar to the way capital works. for larger businesses. As I said, it's just there's a couple of different ways to play the space, but traditional equity investment is pretty similar to even the larger kind of private equity investments. So when the price of oil starts going up, say we're talking late March, early April, and WTI is climbing above 100, and then it hits 112, what actually happens in your business? And what are the thoughts that are going through your mind?
27:17Do you suddenly get a bunch of calls from potential investors going, oh, you know, we're interested in putting some money in the company. Do you start thinking like, well, I need to expand production and maybe ramp up CapEx? Or are you just, you know, sitting there waiting to see what actually pans out with the Gulf situation? How does it how does it all work? That's no, those are really good questions. I mean, obviously, there's there's excitement, right? Because, because, you know, the when it when a price kind of jumps like this, obviously your costs don't rise in tandem. So that is profit on top of everything.
27:51What I will tell you in 2022, last time we had elevated pricing, and that was largely kind of based on the fear of supply loss that never really happened. Everybody was saying that the Russians were going to lose three to 4 million barrels a day, and so we need prices to kind of stimulate more production. So everybody got really excited. Everybody got to work. I will say for a company our size, we authorized a fairly large capital plan because, as I said, I thought that there was some bite to that bark. And what happened was, is I authorized everything in May of June when oil was at 100, and then first production came on in August and September when oil was back to 70.
28:29So you had this big rise in prices, a commiserate rise in costs, obviously not as high, but costs go up. I mean, oil and gas service providers aren't dumb, right? They see the price of oil go up 20 % to 25%, And they're like, well, you know, your day rate on a workover rig has just gone from 175 to 250. Huh. Yeah. I mean, it's the service, the service companies aren't dumb. The chemical providers might say, well, you know, this is your, you know, this chemical you use, this xylene you use is going to go from, you know, 20 bucks a gallon to 40 bucks a gallon. Because I know you can pay it because I have a computer and I can see what the price of oil is as well, too.
29:05So, you know, what I would tell you, and these are in conversations I've had with a lot of other people in our industry. I talk to people on the industry on a day-to-day basis. I have friends that work for large operators, large capital providers. I have friends on the service side, friends in private equity, friends in investment banking. I mean, I think everybody is very cautious right now. You have a president right now who, on the record, demonstratively on a daily basis, has shown his disdain and hatred for high oil prices. You know, a big part of that is I think he kind of sees oil prices as the easiest and most visible way to keep inflation in check, which leads to kind of his goal of getting interest rates down, which is beneficial for a lot of other sectors.
29:46And so, you know, I think similar to just about every other industry player here, I think we saw prices go up. And, you know, this is not some Chinese super cycle like you had in the early ops, right? Like effectively, you had to, you know, the company, the country was industrializing kind of in front of our eyes. And so you have this step change in demand growth, which, you know, any oil man will tell you that is that is kind of the beautiful increase in prices. Right. Versus this sudden, you know, geopolitical driven supply shock. When prices rise this fast and this high, you know, it's really kind of not beneficial for anybody.
30:22And so I think, you know, the tenor of the industry and the tone of the industry is really kind of wait and see. I mean, sure, you know, you're going to have some companies that are going to look to put a rig to work, are going to increase CapEx. But, you know, we're just able to pay our debt down a little bit more. And, you know, we're going to kind of cash flow. And I'm I'm really interested to see, you know, kind of where everything settles out. You know, you obviously had that announcement today that Hormuz has been open. But if you listen to the Iranians, they've been saying Hormuz is open, you know, for the last six weeks.
30:52You just you know, you got to play by our rules and you got to play play by the, you know, the Iranian Republican guards rules. So I'm not quite sure what has changed. But, you know, I tweeted this out a couple of days ago. You know, the market kind of clearly thinks that the war is over. And, you know, you're kind of seeing that wash today in prices. And so I just would it'll be interesting to see where prices are going to settle out. I don't think we're going back to the 50s or 60s. You know, are you going to see, you know, to get back in the land, man, are you going to see that sweet spot at 75?
31:20You know, that that would be a better baseline for us than 65 and 60. And so to reiterate what I said earlier, I think the you know, I think the industry is largely kind of in a wait and see mode. So when oil prices collapse like they seem to be doing today, do the oil service providers start cutting their prices as quickly as they raise them? They do not. They do not. You know, you were starting to see some fuel surcharges on some of those bills. I would imagine if you settle back in the 70s or 80s, those are going to kind of go away. And part of that is kind of tongue in cheek, right? The operators always play a game with the service companies.
31:58So it remains to be seen. As I said, there's just so much noise in the market right now. I mean, I can't remember the last time we ever lived in an era where, you know, a tweet could move the price of the world's most liquid commodity 5 % to 10%. And so, yeah, I mean, I think everybody's just kind of waiting to see where this will settle out. It's effectively impossible to plan a business, you know, with a price as volatile as it is right now.
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35:04Tracy Alloway:Getting burnt seems like just as much as part of the industry is making a lot of money and you get it on both sides in 2015. And then you mentioned the sort of the fizzling out of the post Ukraine boom, et cetera. And then here, of course, the war and the spike was too short to make any big plans. But like, and then you have this president who clearly wants more production, but a drill, drill, drill, but also wants lower prices, and these things are in conflict. Could you see a set of conditions again in which there is real meaningful expansion of U.S. drilling or et cetera? Or what would it have to take?
35:41Tracy Alloway:What would be the constellation of events that would have to happen for like, okay, we're going to really ramp this out again? Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, as I said, I hate to use round numbers, but that's just kind of the world we live in. And I think if you saw a sustainable price above 80 over a prolonged period, maybe call it four to eight months, I think you would see a supply response because there are a lot of shale wells that work at 80 to 90 that don't work at 50 to 60. Depending on who you talk to in the Permian, there's kind of anywhere between five to 10 years of what you would call core inventory left or economic inventory left.
36:19That's obviously largely a function of price as well as geology. So a higher for longer price, I think you would see a production response from the industry. Now, do I think we're going to go back to the days of growing one to one and a half barrels a day? I don't think so. But could you see an era where we're growing 300 ,000 to 500 ,000 barrels a day? Yeah, I mean, I think that that's possible. But as I said, you would need to see prices settle above 80 for a prolonged period of time, I think, to kind of see a supply response because even shale, which, you know, is kind of called a, that's a short supply response, right?
36:59That's about as short as it gets. The short barrels. Yeah, it's about as short as it gets, right? I mean, you've got, you know, but it's still a four to six month response time, right? I mean, because a lot of the rigs that you saw kind of start to roll off, you know, that's a six month lag, right? So you had the Liberation day tariffs where prices kind of cratered from, you know, 70 to 57. And then we've kind of bumped around the 50s or 60s. But even decisions that get made in, you know, got made in April and May of 2025, you didn't really start to see the rig and supply response for four to six months later.
37:32And that's largely that's largely kind of the turnaround time here. And so, you know, as I said, I think I think you would need to see higher for longer prices for the next couple of months for us to see a meaningful supply response. But I mean, I and this is kind of the consensus view of, you know, most of the sell side oil research analysts that I follow as well, too. But, you know, the as I said, never underestimate the ingenuity of the the American oil man. Well, setting price aside, one of the things the administration said it wanted to do to get, you know, oil pumping is basically streamlining, you know, environmental review and the leasing process, basically liberalizing the regulatory environment around starting new drilling projects.
38:16And I know you're not necessarily specialized in exploring, you know, for new locations, but do you get a sense from your colleagues elsewhere in the industry about whether or not that liberalization has actually, you know, translated into people drilling more or thinking about drilling more? Yeah, you know, I mean, I think it certainly helped. But for sure, I mean, price is an exponentially higher dictator, you know, of whether or not somebody kind of chooses to drill. Yeah. I mean, as I would say, you know, there's there's the old saying in the oil patch that, you know, Democrats are actually very good for the oil and gas industry.
38:51And, you know, but they're anti-industry and that the Republicans are very pro-industry, but they're actually very bad for the industry. You know, and that's kind of largely a function of some of those regulations. So I'm not going to say that they don't play an impact. I mean, there's there certainly is an impact. And, you know, to the extent that the, you know, the Biden administration or some of the other Democratic administrations have been more punitive to the industry, you know, that does effectuate a supply response, you know, that is largely beneficial to the industry. But I would tell you, I think for the most part, you know, those regulations matter, but they don't matter nearly as much as what the price of the commodity is and then the cost of the inputs is.
39:33I mean, that's ultimately, as I said, that's an exponentially more important factor than, you know, whether or not there's 50 ,000 acres in Wyoming that are now open for drilling that weren't open for drilling.
39:43Tracy Alloway:Tell us a little bit more about the politics. You know, as you mentioned, we've observed, everyone's observed this, that actually the oil industry is like, why do they hate Democrats so much? It always seems like the price of oil is high under them, et cetera. I understand publicly who's on whose side because of various affiliations, et cetera. But like, how do people talk about politics at a country club in Fort Worth or Midland or something like that? Well, I don't belong to any country clubs in Fort Worth. But yeah, I'm going to try to use my words carefully here. Of course, I understand. There's no surprise that most of the oil production in this country is done in Republican states, right?
40:23I mean, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana. I mean, New Mexico, I guess, is a democratically run state. The parts of New Mexico where the oil is produced are very, very conservative. And so, yeah, you know, I would tell you the politics are tricky because obviously oil country overwhelmingly supports Trump. Yeah. But I also think, you know, behind closed doors, there's a lot of frustration in the industry of, you know, Trump, you know, actively kind of trying to jawbone oil prices down. You know, I think that there are a lot of people that wish that, you know, as I said, I hate to kind of bring Landman back up, that we could just kind of find some happy price equilibrium.
40:58Right. Whether it's, you know, 70 or 75, you know, not not 55 or 50, which I think was kind of what they said as their their target price. But, you know, not not 90 or 95, which is a price that, you know, hurts demand. And so, yeah, I mean, the politics are, you know, the overwhelming majority of the oil industry is Republican and conservative. But, yeah, I think a lot of people are very frustrated by some of the administration's rhetoric and policies over the last year.
41:25Tracy Alloway:You know, I noticed on your Twitter profile, it says you're based in Colorado, but you clearly have the Oklahoma roots there. Big fan of the Oklahoma City Thunder, OU Sooners. You say you're political independent. The senator from Oklahoma just moved to the White House, Mark Wayne Mullen. There's going to be an open seat in 2026. You're going to move back to Oklahoma and run as an independent? Is that any possibility of trying to vie for that seat? An independent oil man is like replacing. I don't know. I could see it. Yeah, no. No interest in politics right now, you know, as anybody would tell you.
41:59Tracy Alloway:Right now. No interest in politics right now. Yeah, I've got young kids and, you know, working on growing a business. Yeah, I get it. Politics is increasingly, you know, a pretty nasty game, especially in a country as polarized as ours. We've noticed. You know, you referred earlier to this idea of, like, short cycle shale or short barrels from the shale patch. And this is one thing I'm curious about when, you know, given that, again, I'm looking at the Baker Hughes oil rig count, but like, has that assumption kind of eroded given that a lot of these basins have matured? And also, you know, we spoke about capital discipline before and investor expectations.
42:38It doesn't seem like shale is as responsive as it used to be. Yeah, I mean, I think that that's right. And I think that that does have, you know, a lot to do with the consolidation in these basins. You know, the other thing that I'll say, too, and this is why the rig count in a certain extent is honestly, it's not as important maybe as it's still very important, but maybe not as important as it was five to 10 years ago. And that's largely just due to the ingenuity of the American oil man. I mean, you know, back when I worked for a shale company, this is in 2015, 2016, we were drilling wells in the Permian Basin and 7 ,500 foot lateral, which is, you know, effectively like a mile and a half, you know, took anywhere from kind of 25 to 35 days to drill.
43:20The industry is largely doing it under 10 now. So just the amount of time it takes to drill and complete these wells is just dramatically shorter than it was even 10 years ago. And I just people who don't live in the space, I think, just don't do not realize how much more efficient these companies have become at drilling these wells. And so effectively, you can do more with less. And so, as I said, you know, the rig count is important, but it is it is less important maybe than it was 10 years ago, just because, as I said, these these companies can drill these wells so much faster and get production on kind of so much quicker than they could, you know, even even 10 years ago.
43:57But yeah, I mean, I would agree with you that I would say on a whole, I think the industry is probably less responsive to some of these price signals. And I think just I think honestly, just a big part of it is, you know, we've been burned pretty bad, you know, three times in the last 10 years. And so it's, you know, kind of one of those, you know, fool me once type anecdotes, I guess.
44:17Tracy Alloway:I would never underestimate the ingenuity of the American oil man. But in addition to the engineering prowess and it's all really impressive, is that all like – you have to be a little messed up in the head. Is that also – I get the prowess part, but is there also – in commercial real estate, I have a friend and he talks about the sickness that people in this industry have because they're all just like hyperoptimists and nothing can convince them that they can fail. Is that also part of why we should not be underestimating the industry because there's something going on in the heads of people like you?
44:55Yeah, people in this industry have a high pain tolerance. I think there was a saying in the oil patch that the difference between an oil man and a smart oil man is the smart oil man makes his money in oil and gas and then puts it in real estate. It takes a particularly sick individual to live through these kind of boom and bust cycles. And, yeah, you know, what I will tell you, though, is that we are resilient and everybody in the industry firmly believes in what they do. And I think that's a big part of it. Right. I mean, you're talking about extracting a substance from, you know, under the ground that literally powers everything in our world.
45:32I mean, I think there was I read some I read some quotas in an article that, you know, without new oil and gas production, if we just were to basically shut off oil, all oil and gas, you know, development and production that, you know, 60 percent of the world would starve in six months. And so, you know, I think that there is there's obviously a little bit of, you know, you got to have a high pain tolerance. But I think the other thing, too, is that everybody in this industry really believes in what they do. And, you know, we we create and we produce a product that powers the modern world. And so I think there's a tremendous amount of pride in that as well, too.
46:05And I don't think you'll talk to anybody in the industry that does not feel just an enormous sense of pride in what we do. And, you know, I think, you know, someone said this to me once and I firmly believe in it. And they said, you know, Jack, one of the things your dad did that I firmly believe in is, you know, without the shale revolution, there would have been a lot more wars. And I really do believe in that because I think that this resource abundance that, you know, we've kind of largely taken for granted over the last 10 years has prevented a lot of conflict, believe it or not, because, you know, America is largely we're not wholly energy self-sufficient.
46:38right? There are different blends of crude. We largely produce one type of oil, which is called light sweet. You don't just produce oil and put it in your car, right? It's got to go to refinery. It's got to get broken down into kind of various products. And you need different blends of crude oil to be able to do that. So we still do import some crude from other parts of the world, whether it's Venezuela or the Middle East or Canada or Mexico, you know, that's blended together to kind and make the products that power the modern world. But just the fact that we're not worried or talking about running out of oil anymore, I think is just a tremendous achievement that people don't kind of talk about enough.
47:18And I think they should.
47:19Tracy Alloway:Jack McClendon, really appreciate talking to you. Really glad you came on, OddLots. Thanks for indulging our Landman-related questions and everything else. And let's check in again in six months or a year or maybe seven years when the 2032 election is happening in Oklahoma and the kids are a bit older. Well, thank you so much for having me on. As I said, I love listening to your podcast. Oh, thank you. Oh, thanks. Appreciate it.
47:55Tracy Alloway:those stats about the increased efficiency of the drilling etc always like blow my mind they're insane and the story that i wrote i guess it was like back in 2016 was actually super interesting to me and it was literally about like the oil companies getting together to standardize a bunch of drilling components that hadn't been standardized before. And so even eking out these tiny improvements in cost end up like adding to the overall supply and enabling people to keep drilling even when the benchmark price is really low. I just found it really fascinating. It is really fascinating. You know, it also might be a future episode for us to do at some point, which is the production refinery mismatch in the United States and why it is the case, right?
48:42Oh, I meant to ask that question. Oh, I'm kicking myself.
48:45Tracy Alloway:You know, like we have all these refineries, but mostly they were built from the era of when we imported a lot of oil, right? And then we started producing a lot more. But I think there's like a new refinery opened pretty recently. But prior to that, I don't think like a new refinery had opened in the U.S. like 50 years. Some crazy number. So I always hear different things about this because I hear that story. And then I hear other people say that, like, actually, the idea that we can't refine light, sweet crude, Joe, that's just for you. Thank you. Sorry. Is actually like a bit of a myth that there is some capacity.
49:17So I would be very interested in this topic.
49:19Tracy Alloway:Jack, get back on the phone. I know. I actually wrote this down in my notes and then just started thinking about Landman, obviously, and completely forgot to ask it. So next time. Next time. But there's a lot of interesting stuff coming out of that episode. One of them was this idea that when the price of oil increases, your costs go up, too, because all of your suppliers can see that you're making more money and they can ask for more in return. You know, that's a little bit obvious, but I'd never really considered it before. And then the other thing that stands out is just that tension from the Trump administration where, you know, you want American oil producers to drill and boost production.
49:55But at the same time, you're very vocal about keeping gas prices low. And the industry is very aware of those statements as well.
50:03Tracy Alloway:So, by the way, in the last couple of minutes, another headline said Iran would reclose the strait if the U.S. blockade persists. So we'll see what's going on there. But it is interesting also this element of like Jack talked about it, the show Landman talked about finding that sweet spot. But it doesn't seem like it like it doesn't ever seem like it stays. It's a pretty volatile thing. You don't get the sweet spot time for very long. No. Yeah. It doesn't seem like it. I do think you have to be a particular type of person to be in this industry. Definitely. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there.
50:38This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
50:43Tracy Alloway:And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest, Jack McClendon. He's at Jack underscore McClendon. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmandDashleBennett at DashBot. and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots. We have a daily newsletter on all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash Odd Lots. And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you want us to do a follow-up episode on U.S. refining capacity, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.
51:16And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.
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From the publisher
The White House wants gasoline prices to be lower, and it wants to see American oil companies drill for more oil. But of course, these ideas are in tension. If prices are going lower, why drill more? This tension has only grown sharper since the shale busts of the mid-2010s, as American producers got burned multiple times by prioritizing production over profits. So what now? How do US producers think about the recent oil price spike? How are they thinking about the rising costs of their own production, due to higher energy, labor, and steel costs? On this episode, we speak with Jack McClendon, the founder and CEO of Siena Natural Resources, an independent oil and gas company that primary buys odd lots of wells from other companies. We talk about the long-term economics of the industry, including the central role of capital markets in determining how the industry moves. He also tells us whether the show Landman is realistic.
Read more:
Oil Tankers Hauling US Crude Via Panama Approaching 4-Year High
The US Oil Industry Doesn’t Want the Iran War Either
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