James van Geelen on His Viral AI Doom Scenario

15:43James van Geelen:It's probably what is making these decisions of what items you see when you go on Amazon. So if these agentic capabilities are introduced as features to a technology that everyone has already adopted, you have to adjust your model for that.

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16:52Joe Weisenthal:And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break. So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech or markets, you're hearing it while it happens. It's smart, calm and to the point. And it fits into your morning. You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin and Paris. on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. I have so many things to say about this. But first of all, there's something very dystopian about living in a world where like the upside is, well, we have a lot of bulls**t jobs in existence already.

17:36Joe Weisenthal:And so maybe some of those bulls**t jobs will continue to exist even with AI. But the other thing is like the self-reinforcing nature of AI seems really important to me in the sense that, as you pointed out, James, like it's not necessarily that people have to go out and find these new capabilities themselves. It's that the technology itself that they're maybe already using just to substitute search or something like that can do it on their behalf. And so you just get this feedback cycle where like one AI thing creates new AI things and it just builds and builds on itself.

18:12James van Geelen:I really would be remiss if I didn't say this again, which is a lesson that I've learned over the past five days, that you can put something in all caps, you can bold it, and people will still not read it. But maybe this is different because I'm speaking. My base case is probably a lot closer to a lot of the people rebutting this article than the article itself. The point of this really was to explore what the bear case is if we continue to have a very bullish world in AI infrastructure. I think that any investor that reads it and thinks and, you know, know, disagrees with half of the things that we say, maybe agrees with half of it and forms a more nuanced understanding of what to watch out for.

18:55James van Geelen:That's kind of our job.

18:56Tracy Alloway:So this is important. And people who haven't read the piece should know that, like, right up front, you say this. You say this piece is not a forecast. This is a possible scenario and how it could go. And we're going to get into some of the details. But, you know, one counter argument to sort of the idea of macroeconomic doom or financial crisis or whatever is, OK, if you have AI and it's driving incredible productivity gains, it's very disinflationary and so forth. If some people are becoming fabulously wealthy in part of this big redistribution that would happen, well, then the government has a lot more fiscal capacity to stabilize this.

19:35Tracy Alloway:right? Then the government can spend a lot of money, rates have come down, they can counteract the disinflation, not totally unlike perhaps COVID would be like a great example. But it strikes me as like, well, if we're ever going to have a government that's thinking about these things proactively, that strikes me as a good reason to write them out. And it's notable, like many of the executives at the top AI labs, they talk about exactly this. In fact, it seems like they're pleading almost with the government to take this more seriously, because if we're going to have this big disruption and redistribution, we're going to have to start thinking about what are the fiscal mechanisms to counter it out?

20:14James van Geelen:A hundred percent. I think that it's something where it's perfectly fine and good to say that the government will be able to deal with it, but it's probably better to formulate a framework in which the government is more able to do that. And in order to do that, you kind of have to have an idea of what to keep track of. And I can say that in the discourse that I've seen, I don't think that there's a very strong kind of data collection on this specifically. One of the big rebuttals has been that software job postings have gone up 11 % year over year. Those job postings include AI and machine learning engineers.

20:53James van Geelen:So you're really seeing a composition shift where these new AI engineers are coming in, and they're creating software that will improve itself. And when it comes to the government response, Jolts doesn't really speak about composition. In my opinion, there's not a great amount of data on white collar specifically. And, yeah, it was almost worrying in itself to see this reaction where we write this article that's kind of saying what I think most people are thinking. We're putting trillions of dollars at the white collar productivity machine. And, oh, that might, you know, have some level of disruption.

21:32James van Geelen:And I get it. The thing that I'm very thankful to a lot of the rebuttals for is that they remind people that it's 2026, which we tried to do three times in the piece, but apparently we're not successful. Thank you to everyone that made sure that this isn't like a spin out crazy whatever. But the worrying side is, well, everyone seems very, very comfortable that this is all going to be okay. And I think that that reasonably, I'm also a student of financial history, that reasonably comes from when you look back at the past and you say, well, we had this industrial revolution and it was amazing. And we've had mechanization and it was amazing.

22:06James van Geelen:And we've had the internet and it was amazing. And it created all these jobs that we couldn't have possibly foreseen beforehand. And you're looking at that from 100 or more years in the future. We have the term Luddite because of the fact that the transition was so abrupt and marked that people were moved to physical violence, right? We don't want that to happen. The transitions do occur. And the faster that this happens, if this were going to happen over the next 20 or 30 years, fine, that's going to be great. Everything's going to be awesome. I think that the real time frame is closer to 5 to 15.

22:45James van Geelen:And obviously this piece extrapolates where it's three years. We should be prepared for anything because the government isn't going to accurately forecast technological advancement. But they can accurately forecast what they should watch and what the best policy response would be.

22:59Joe Weisenthal:Yeah, this is the thing. The Luddites were like ultimately on the wrong side of history in terms of thinking that resistance to new technology would actually matter. But that doesn't mean that there wasn't major resistance and disruption on the way there.

23:11Tracy Alloway:And that it wasn't absolutely awful. Yeah. No, exactly. They're like right from their perspective, from their lives.

23:16Joe Weisenthal:Exactly. You know, you mentioned software job openings still rising. And one of the reasons that's able to happen is because we still have a financial system that up until relatively recently has been very comfortable with extending credit to software companies. And there's obviously a reflexivity between the financial system, the market and the real economy. And you dig into that in your piece as well. And this is the part of it that I actually found the most interesting where you describe how AI could actually and the disruptive effects of AI could actually end up becoming problematic, especially for private capital.

23:53Joe Weisenthal:And this, again, is something that is very much in the public slash market psyche this week because we've had a number of private credit blowups starting to become public. Talk a little bit more about how you see that kind of private credit AI disruption, now insurance as well, nexus unfolding.

24:12James van Geelen:Just to reiterate, I don't see it unfolding. But I think this wasn't like a singling out of private credit. It was very much a response to the price action of the market. But it is something worth considering that it's relatively new in the grand scheme of things. And there's a system that's built upon the assumption that things stay relatively stable. And if things aren't relatively stable, then what could possibly happen? We're not really private credit analysts, right? We're thematic equity and macro research. This was something where we presented kind of, if you were to have a wave of defaults in one of these disrupted industries, what would happen?

24:51James van Geelen:And then the other thing is maybe the job losses are fine and we go back to a economy like the 1950s where the participation rate is much lower but productivity is much higher. That's great too. In the transition, the people that are at the highest risk of being replaced by AI have like 780 FICO scores. And they're not classically what gets modeled as a risk in terms of a default. So these are all things where it's not saying that this is going to happen. It's saying has private credit lending and, you know, to their credit, I will say Apollo much earlier to the software thing than even I was or the market was.

25:31James van Geelen:Right. Apollo reduced their software lending pretty early on. I think it was in early 2025. For the rest of it, you know, like has there been enough changes to the assumptions about the income and about, you know, does ARR stay recurring? That's just something to consider, I think.

25:49Joe Weisenthal:What's your base case on private credit then? Is it the sort of Jamie Dimon cockroach scenario? So I think that private credit isn't banking, right?

25:58James van Geelen:The run on the bank dynamic doesn't necessarily play out. They are in possession of permanent capital to a certain degree. And that's through, in a lot of areas, the acquisition of these life insurers. So I think you could definitely see the contagion being very minimized if there were to be, I don't think there have been any like very high profile blowups yet. Everything's pretty much fine right now, as I understand it. The progression of it, though, I don't think that you're at a very high risk. My base case would be just like that. And the only kind of added risk is if you were to have some sort of change to how private credit is treated from a regulatory perspective on the balance sheet of these life insurers?

26:42Tracy Alloway:So there's sort of two major components to the piece that you wrote. And one is obviously the macro scenario. And the way it's framed is like, OK, the year is 2028. Unemployment is above 10 percent. The stock market has fallen 40 percent. So there's the macro story. But then there's also the sort of secular micro story. And I think this is really interesting. And this is the part that I've been like trying to work out and trying to understand better. This idea that like there are all these businesses that have essentially been built up around building a moat based on network effects, you know, payments, platforms and so forth and whatever.

27:19Tracy Alloway:And so this idea that AI and agentic commerce will fundamentally change the way a lot of these businesses operate and these moats will disappear. And talk to us about that because I have a harder time wrapping my head around what is it about AI per se that's like, here you have these legacy networks, delivery drivers, payment companies with whatever they have on the desk and you swipe your card and stuff like that. What are those called? It's our little - Point of sale? What? Yeah, the little point of sale machines. But talk to us about like, just from a pure tech standpoint, what is it about agentic AI that can sort of evaporate this mode?

27:59James van Geelen:So I will say if I had to go back in time and write the piece differently, I would not have singled that. I would have just kept it on a sector basis. And I think that if I knew that it was going to get 30 million views, I would not have mentioned single stocks at all. So I won't do that here. but what I will say is and this future could be wrong but if you envision a future where I remember talking to you guys about this in 2024 when I was using it as a bull case for Apple which didn't end up coming you know they Apple was kind of let the chips fall where they may and then we'll come in afterwards which they've done a lot in the past 10 years but the idea is you have this agentic assistant and it's in your phone and it knows everything about you and then you kind of extrapolate that to a lot of people spend a decent amount of time shopping.

28:49James van Geelen:What they don't spend a lot of time doing is price matching. If you're going to buy a box of protein bars, you don't really check five different vendors, because it's tedious. AI agents do not experience tedium, right? So the kind of way that there are a lot of layered intermediation and rent kind of extraction layer in the economy. And then there are a lot of places where having an oligopoly, essentially, has allowed margins to really be artificially increased. So just to address, I don't think that code is the moat on a delivery network. You have the drivers, you have the customers. I get that.

29:31James van Geelen:What I could see happening is something that's already kind of happening where these startups are enabled to create something that's similar and well you don't have the network effect okay but if you have an ai agent that has the explicit instructions to go out and find the cheapest option then it doesn't really care about using this thing that has a network effect it cares about using the thing that's the cheapest so if you have an order aggregator that's an agentic kind of aggregator on the driver side and the customer side then the customer says to the agent hey i want this burrito from chipotle and then uh there's a bunch of different platforms that the listing is on because the restaurant has used one of these agentic aggregators to go on every single one and put their thing and the driver also has the one that will get them paid the most so the idea of you know taking half of the delivery fee as the company kind of goes away because your margin is my opportunity and if someone that's five people that's kind of coding up this maybe shoddy replacement is very happy to, you know, obviously there are other moats here, but that's just one example of how you might see a world in which agendic commerce and the, it's very similar to like the paperclip problem.

30:47James van Geelen:If you tell a machine to do something, it's just trying to get you the best price. And maybe that includes finding a way around interchange.

30:54Tracy Alloway:Just to push back on this or just to pressure, I mean, like comparison shopping websites have existed for a long time almost since the beginning of the internet right and you know in theory you can google i don't know it's just like google shop had a thing for a while i don't think people ever that ever took off but you know it'd show you like here's the price of a computer monitor on amazon and walmart.com and newegg.com and a few of these sites that like don't exist anymore etc like in theory like isn't that describing the same thing that like from the customer's perspective, it's like, okay, I'll just, they're all the same.

31:29Tracy Alloway:I'm going to click the cheapest.

31:30James van Geelen:Totally. I get that. And that's an entirely possible case. What I will say is there's a big difference between actively going and taking the effort and taking the time to go to one of these comparison shopping sites to get the best price versus just telling your phone, get me a burrito, get me the best price, right? Those are, they're two kind of fundamentally different things. This will play out over the next five or 10 years and we'll see. And also, I'm sure that we're not going to just delete friction overnight, right? So that's why it was so shocking to see this kind of like immediate reaction.

32:05James van Geelen:It's like, this stuff hasn't happened yet. And we don't know exactly how it's going to happen. It's just a future scenario where things happen a certain way. So.

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33:37Joe Weisenthal:Can you talk to us for a second just where you see AI valuations at the moment? Because I think this is also part of the reason that people are very nervous at the moment, which is like, OK, on the one hand, we think AI is going to eat the world. But on the other hand, it's not entirely clear that a lot of AI is going to make money in doing so. And if you look at, you know, some of the big hyperscalers at the moment, they're still losing money on certain power users. So how do we think that AI is actually going to make money as it sort of eats the world?

34:10James van Geelen:I think that that's the other thing that's important here is that these companies need to go out and search for ROI. And there are a lot of threats. You saw Anthropic respond to the Chinese distillation of models. And, you know, if you go and you use Minimax, it's relatively comparable, but it's also 90 % cheaper. So this is like a, there is a race happening right now. And the economics are, they span the gamut, right? Good and bad on both sides. The thing that drives this kind of capability improvement is you do need customers to pay for these things that you have spent so much money on. And that means making it capable in a way that's useful to your customers or integrating it in a way that's useful to your customers.

34:59James van Geelen:So I personally think that that will happen. How quickly it happens is anybody's guess. But I think valuations right now are reflective of this expectation that we are going to continue adding compute capacity to be able to handle this. And I think that if you spend eight hours just thinking about it, you can see a lot of places where AI is pretty valuable. But a lot of those places are places where you might otherwise pay a human right now. So, yeah, it's just you just have to balance it. And there's a lot of ways that it can go well. And then there's a couple of ways that it doesn't.

35:32Tracy Alloway:Let's talk about enterprise software for a second because, OK, the public facing these moats, these network effects, et cetera, maybe AI agents allow us to get the best price, wherever. It's a different economics if we're saying the enterprise, we know about the enterprise, the SaaS sell-off, et cetera. What is the scenario? How would you articulate the fear in the market right now that all of these incumbent software companies could theoretically get ripped out because something, something AI will make it so that customers don't need them?

36:01James van Geelen:So you can separate software. You have kind of like this long tail of SaaS that includes these workflow automation tools. And then you have like the systems of record. I think that it's very likely that at least the systems of record have like a short squeeze in the sense that right now they kind of just have upside in that they are most situated to be able to improve their margins because of AI.

36:24Tracy Alloway:Right, because coding is a cost for them, right? They can theoretically maintain these things much cheaper than they are.

36:30James van Geelen:Yeah, 100%. And what we said in the piece, which will be interesting to see in real life, and I don't necessarily, it's a good point that enterprises don't really react as quickly as this. So the timeline is probably aggressive. But the way that these kind of contracts are negotiated, last year, when you had the first half, the kind of budget resetting, these CIOs and procurement teams, the agentic AI was still kind of a buzzword, right? It wasn't until the end of November that it became insane you know i saw you have vibe coded a couple things yourself so there was something cool coming out next week nice uh there was a great kind of jump in capability what is it by the way are you kidding you to speak about it or no he can't it requires some finesse i think

37:15Joe Weisenthal:well this is the thing this is the thing like i used to blame joe for the sass sell-off right because he was the one vibe coding and publicizing vibe coding but now we can all blame citrine Yeah, you're welcome.

37:30James van Geelen:But the strategy that's been adopted by OpenAI is very similar to Palantir, where they say, we have these forward deployed engineers, and we're just going to install them at your place. And so maybe, you know, I don't necessarily think the enterprises are going to jump to vibe code their own system record. But what I do think is that when you have these sales teams that call up their customers and say, hey, remember last year we said this was what inflation was and then we added a couple percent on top of that. So you're getting a 5 % price increase. All good. OK. You're not going anywhere because you don't have anywhere else to go.

38:02James van Geelen:Done. Now the person on the other side of the phone can say, you know, OpenAI called me the other day, even if they're bluffing. Right. So so you do see like some potential downside to pricing power. And that's in the places where it's very unlikely that these vibe-coded alternatives actually pose a threat. And then you see it's been interesting how Anthropic has handled it where they've recognized this capability gap where they say, oh, the people don't really understand what these tools can do. So they've started releasing like suites of AI tools. I don't know if you saw the wealth management one, right?

38:40James van Geelen:They released the wealth management one I think a couple days ago. It's like you could have done this yourself with Cloud Customs.

38:46Tracy Alloway:This is a really good point. And I hadn't really thought of it in that terms because these things that like Cloud announced or Anthropic releases something, they're not that incredible in some sense. But they're essentially just very simple reminders. You hadn't thought to use this for, you know, modeling various retirement scenarios. Actually, it's very simple. You could do that. You hadn't thought to use this. So because they're simple, they're like Markdown files. They're not like particularly exotic pieces of software, but they are reminders that this thing you didn't think of. Yeah, just do it.

39:15Joe Weisenthal:It's like a thing that you can use to hammer your supplier over the head with. Right. Yeah. I don't know exactly what the timeline that that happens on, but there are going to be adjustments to pricing power because of it.

39:26James van Geelen:And yeah, it seems that this is kind of the reason why in the beginning, I thought that framing the piece this way was valuable to our client base and reader base was because as an investor, you don't really care if you're presented with 10 scenarios and nine of them are wrong if one of them makes you money. Right. So I obviously knew that some people who had already bought the dip in software would disagree with the software part, but maybe they would agree with the, you know, with the disintermediation part. But then it kind of escaped containment. And in retrospect, if I was going to write a piece for broad distribution, it would probably be pretty optimistic because I'm a pretty optimistic guy.

40:04James van Geelen:Like, so, yeah, that's been an interesting experience.

40:08Joe Weisenthal:What was the most surprising thing from this week for you?

40:12James van Geelen:Well, I had someone that that really strongly disagreed with me. And then when I asked why, sent me a Claude readout.

40:19Tracy Alloway:the uh the kelsey is cool that uh there's a you can use this as a hedge for like your own there's now an instrument at which let's see kelsey i'm gonna look it up kelsey citrini scenario like if you start typing in kelsey and then start the word c it autofill citrini scenario will this i love that will the citrini scenario happen

40:41James van Geelen:it's at 11.6 is that basically the rate that you would get if you put it in the money market

40:45Tracy Alloway:It probably is. So this is just, can I read the specifications of the contract?

40:49Joe Weisenthal:Fine print matters.

40:50Tracy Alloway:The rule summary. So if at least three of, colon, unemployment rate exceeds 10 % for the BLS. S &P 500 declines more than 30 % from its closing level of issuance. That's weird terminology. Zillow Home Index declines more than 10%. And then you have New York City, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix. Labor share of GDI falls below 50%. And CPU falls below 0%. If any of those three things happen, then the Cetrini scenario.

41:16Joe Weisenthal:That's crazy because like most of that is just a financial crash, right?

41:19Tracy Alloway:Like it's not even necessarily tied to AI. It's cool. Like, do you like that? That's like this is now going to be known as the Cetrini scenario forever. Like when we get the next crisis, whenever people are like, oh, this is like an omen.

41:33James van Geelen:I feel like anybody consider, like I feel like you could make a lot more money on TLT calls if three of these things hit.

41:40Tracy Alloway:but um there's 125 000 been traded in this market okay so it's still pretty minor deep liquidity you can't right you can't probably hedge you can't hedge your whole life or you know your whole portfolio but you know if i was going to pick a thing i'd be known for it probably would

41:56James van Geelen:have been not this yeah but you know you don't get to pick so i i still stand by what we've written and i think that it's uh as a scenario useful to consider all right james thank you

42:07Joe Weisenthal:for coming on during a very busy and I'm sure surreal week for you.

42:12James van Geelen:Thank you for having me.

42:25Joe Weisenthal:All right, Joe, I'm very glad we got James on to discuss that because obviously this is the talking point of the week, at least. It is just fascinating from a media perspective how how you can have these viral pieces that kind of get out into the world and develop a life of their own. But obviously, the major point of interest in all of this is these are the things that the market seems to be actively considering at the moment, right?

42:50Tracy Alloway:Paul Krugman wrote a good piece. He disagreed with a lot of it, but he pointed out, you know, when the radio broadcast of War of the Worlds happened and a bunch of people panicked because they thought there was some big invasion, it occurred in the environment of a very – it was like during the Depression.

43:04Joe Weisenthal:Yeah, of like existential dread.

43:05Tracy Alloway:And look, like this is the worry that has been people have been talking about all year, long before this piece. And so like the whole reason people are like talking about, oh, are all these software companies that have thrived forever? The reason why many of them are at all time lows is because it's like, wow, people are very impressed with the capabilities. And you have a lot of people talking about the potential for mass white collar layoffs. And so therefore, you know, I read it as a sort of let's put this all together. And to the point is like you want to be thinking about scenarios, particularly from the public sector response.

43:37Tracy Alloway:Like, let's actually talk about what this could look like. It strikes me as a useful exercise.

43:40Joe Weisenthal:Right. And the reaction itself is informative. Yeah, right. So, again, we should not be in an environment where you can have a think piece, a single scenario that actually causes a broad sell off. Lots of people start like pinning on this particular piece. And likewise, we shouldn't really be in a scenario where Citadel Securities publishes a rebuttal and then everything starts rallying. All it underscores is that no one really knows anything at the moment.

44:05Tracy Alloway:And this is on tenterhooks, right? Like people are extremely stressed and no one – it's – you know, it's like – genuinely, it's uncharted territory. It's uncharted to have a technology that is improving as fast as it is. It's uncharted to have it – you know, it's not like one lot, one specific industry. In fact, it's like a broad range. No one knows where it's going to be. So it's like people are like deeply anxious about it. And it articulated a lot of views and it landed at a moment where this was just top of mind for everyone.

44:36Joe Weisenthal:The one last thing I'll say about this is I'm really glad you asked about policy because this also seems to be the wild card in this entire discussion, which is like the outcome of all of this could end up being very different depending on what policymakers actually decide to do about it. And so far, we haven't really seen any, like, not even early signs of how people are thinking about this.

44:58Tracy Alloway:There's virtually no discussion in D.C. about anything substantive related to, like, the actual impacts of AI. There's almost none. And there's this very weird chasm that's opened up between how much of a big deal so many people are thinking about this and how politicians, like, don't talk about anything but this. It's very strange. It's actually, it's starting to get pretty surreal on that.

45:22Joe Weisenthal:Yeah. All right. Well, shall we leave it there?

45:24Tracy Alloway:Let's leave it there.

45:25Joe Weisenthal:Okay. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

45:30Tracy Alloway:And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest, James Van Geelen. He's at Citrini7. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots for the daily newsletter and all of our episodes. You can chat about all these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg.

45:52Joe Weisenthal:And if you enjoy OddLots, if you like it when we talk about the AI doom scenario of 2028, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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