Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report

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1:38Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Joe, I have an embarrassing confession. Go on. You know the birth-death adjustment? I have the same confession. I used to think it was something about, like, the population of people and the labor supply, but it's not. It's about business formation. Yes, that's right. Oh, my confession is even more embarrassing, which is that I literally always forget what it is. I did a deadlift. I am both the most popular trader and most successful trader at Citadel. FEDA's going viral. Barges. This is an after-school special, except... I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the U.S.

2:21Black gold! These are the important questions. Is it robots taking over the world? No, I think that like in a couple of years, the AI will do a really good job of making the Odd Lots podcast. One day that person will have the mandate of heaven. How do I get more popular and successful? We do have the perfect guest. You're listening to Lots More, where we catch up with friends about what's going on right now. Because even when the Odd Lots is over, there's always lots more. And we really do have the perfect guest.

2:55When people are listening to this, it is Jobs Day. We're recording this September 4th, Jobs Day, September 5th. The important thing to know right now is that to some extent, that monthly non-farm payrolls report that everyone depends on and relies on has never felt to me like more of a moving target in terms of what I'm supposed to be looking at. For many years, it's like, okay, how many jobs were created this month? Yeah, it's going to get revised a little bit, but that tells you something. Now, between seasonality, post-COVID sort of normalization that's still processing, and then, of course, the sort of changes in immigration policy, which have swung dramatically in a year.

3:29These numbers, it's not clear that you actually have to put in some work to understand these numbers. No, totally. And also, I mean, the BLS itself seems to have some difficulty with the numbers because the trend that we've seen is they put out a non-farm payroll, like an initial estimate on a Friday. And then a few weeks later, you get the revisions and the revisions always seem to be downwards lately. Lately, they've been mostly downwards. And then there's annual revisions and those are coming up, I believe, next week. And, you know, we're at a time when setting aside the collection, and of course, setting aside the fact that the BLS chief has been fired, and there's going to be a new one at some point, setting aside all of these things, we're also at a time when there are significant questions about just the macro state of the economy and whether the sort of low hiring, low firing mode, which is characterized for a while now, is at risk of deteriorating further.

4:22I don't know. It's a tough read. You know who we should ask? Steve Englinder. Okay. But let me start with a broader question. Excellent. And the thing is that the question has changed. Like in the past, we used to say, okay, last month or, you know, last 12 months, NFP growth was 200 ,000. Looks like 100 ,000 now. Things have slowed down. That's all we had to know. This time around, because supply is so important, everyone is making an estimate and kind of saying, well, native-born workers, you know, maybe 70 ,000. If you're pessimistic, if you think we have net emigration from foreign-born workers, you have a view of 50.

5:00and if you think that there's still some legal immigration coming in, maybe you're at 100. And that means that getting the level right is really important. And the problem with the NFP numbers that it actually has two components, one of which is the one that we all think about. They survey about 160 ,000 businesses, maybe 600 ,000 establishments, and basically say, okay, how many workers did you have last month? How many did you have this month? And through their statistical analysis, they say, okay, this is a change. So that's for firms that are in continual operation that gives them that number.

5:37The problem is that they have no handle on firms that have just opened and very little handle on firms that have just closed. So they use something called the birth death adjustment to adjust for employment by those latter two categories of firms, net job creation from new firms minus closing firms. And the problem is that they have a very simple model. And it was fine in the past when all you cared about was the direction. But now when you're saying it really matters if NFP gross is 50, having a bias in that number really affects things. And what you see is that that number has, through thick and thin, has stayed about 100 ,000 And jobs, you know, when you seasonally adjust it, because they publish a not seasonal adjustment, but you can do a rough and ready seasonal adjustment.

6:27It's very stable at about every month, 100 ,000 jobs or almost 100 ,000 jobs are coming from that birth death adjustment in terms of what we see on Bloomberg page Friday morning at 830. We have another source of information on that, which lags, but which is far more accurate. This is something called the business employment dynamics. It lags by about eight months, but it's based on the quarterly census of employment and wages. And what that shows is that in 2024, like Q4 2024, say the four quarters, both the employment growth coming from continuing firms and continuing operation and the employment growth from newly open firms, let's just close firms, they've tanked.

7:11So you're sort of looking at a reliable source because it's not even a sample. This is the entire population. They know what opened and what's closed saying, hey, there just isn't any significant jobs creation from newly formed firms. And the NFP number keeps telling you that there's 100 ,000 jobs coming from that. This is already excellent. Next week, we are getting yet another one of these QC quarterly. QCU. What do you call it? I call it QCU, but I'm pretty sure that's not right. What's the right one? What do we call it? I call it QCW. Okay. We get a new QCEW. That's the 9th? September 9th, we get that?

7:50Right. Tell us what this is. Let's walk through this part again in terms of what is it that's high quality about this data, why we expect it to show further downward revisions, and why there continues to be this sort of downward bias in this initial snapshot versus ladder, better insight. Okay. First, NFP has a big sample, but it's a sample. There's sampling errors and people who don't report, and you don't know if there's a bias and who's reporting and who's not reporting. So there's always some inherent error there. QCEW is basically the universe. It's not a sample. They get administrative data from the labor department saying how many people paid into unemployment insurance.

8:29And that's basically everybody, because everybody does. Everybody who's working does pay into unemployment insurance. And so when they come up with a number, There's a bit of revision because sometimes some firms don't report in time, but there's not much. And it's very authoritative. And so if you sort of say, oh, QCEW and the business employment dynamics tell us that in 2024, there was almost no job creation from newly opened, let's just close firms. You believe it because you're not going to get a better source. There's no other source to that. And so that's why it's used for the benchmark.

9:04It probably should be used to re-benchmark employment more frequently in the year because they do publish it quarterly. But, you know, when it comes out, it's a big deal. And we think it's likely to tell us that somewhere between 750 and maybe 1.1 million jobs, that's the overstatement, between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025. Wow. And that will knock off a lot in terms of headline employment growth. the key point is that there's no reason to believe that the bias has really shifted. One of the other unusual things that's going on at the moment is we have this new head of the BLS installed by the Trump administration.

9:45And that new head suggested initially that the BLS could just stop publishing jobs numbers altogether, or maybe they could publish them less frequently, like on a quarterly basis or something. Is the quarterly idea, maybe that's reasonable given the lag with the QCEW data? I think that they can do things that are far less dramatic to improve the quality of the monthly numbers, because we do have some information that's relevant for jobs creation by newly opened firms. Going back to business employment dynamics, if you look at how job creation from existing firms, continuing firms, and job creation from new firms move, they tend to move together.

10:27The amplitude is different, but the direction is very much the same. They can use the sample data that they get from the 160 ,000 firms, 600 ,000 plus establishments that they sample and say, look, if continuing firms are telling us that job creation is 20 ,000 a month, it's very unlikely that job creation from new firms is going to be 100. We can use a variety of statistical methods to sort of make a guesstimate. It won't be perfect, but it'll be a lot better.

11:01Thank you.

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12:50Go to public.com and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com. Paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S.-listed registered securities, options and bonds, and a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Crypto trading provided by Backed Crypto Solutions, LLC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosure. Speaking of the new BLS person, Joe, I saw the most worrying sentence in an analyst note. So the sentence was I have it on my screen.

13:23The sentence is because Trump has his own BLS person now, I don't necessarily see a bad number on Friday. I'm not that pessimistic. I think I don't know. I don't know. I don't have a view. I don't have a view on this. But where were you? Who said this? I don't want to say because I'm not sure it's public or not. But this is a notable person? Yes. It's someone you know, actually. OK, fine. And not me. And not Steve. Not Steven. Let's talk about the conversation has focused on these levels and pace of job creation and so forth. We recently did an episode with Austin Goolsbee, the Chicago Fed president.

14:00And he was like, so much is in flux. I'm not really looking at levels. And he called what he's like, he used this term very dramatic, the four horsemen of truth. He's interested in rates. He's interested in the unemployment rate, which is still at 4.2%. He's interested at the hiring rate, which we had the JOLTS report come out this week. It's at 3.3%. He's interested in the firing rate, which I think has still been fairly low. Maybe he's looking at the rate of wage growth. I don't remember what the fourth horseman was. In a time of volatility, what do you think about this idea? Like, let's just forget about levels and just focus on rates because they don't get revised as much.

14:35You go out and you ask thousands of people, are you employed or unemployed right now? And if 4.2 % say they're unemployed, that is probably a reasonable proxy for whether people are employed or not. Right. But Joe, if you turned out to be the next person named to the FOMC, to the board, and you see payroll number and it comes out at 75 ,000, like tomorrow's consensus, is that a strong number or a weak number? Well, that's what I'm saying. I just look at the – I don't know. I mean I don't know. Let's say – so right now, just for what it's worth, the unemployment rate is at 4.2 percent. Economists expect it to tick up to 4.3 percent.

15:10Let's say it comes at 4.2 percent. let's say we have a weak NFP number, but the unemployment rate stays at 4.2%. Why don't I say, okay, things are still more or less fine? Well, let me say this. I like rates, but I like the employment to population ratio. Okay. Because we know that participation rate is cyclical. And if you look to the employment to population ratio, all these comments that unemployment rate is stable, it looks imbalanced, nothing's changed, they don't hold up very well. We've had pretty consistent drop. Not a 2008 type of drop, but, you know, was like over 60 a year ago. Now it's 59.6.

15:49Okay. It's telling us that there's kind of increased softening. I think you can't be choosy about which rates you look at, but I think in cyclical periods, probably employment of population is telling you more. And this time, it's more on Waller's side than it is on Powell's side. I know we've been talking about weaknesses in the NFP estimates, But what's your expectation for the official number? Well, I wrote we're a little bit split-brained on this, left brain, right brain, because we live in a world where we have to get the market reaction right. Right. So our forecast is 75 ,000. This is very close to consensus, you know, nothing dramatic.

16:27I'd just say this, that you've got to realize there's so much randomness in the number. It could be 125 ,000 and not be meaningful, but it's just the way it goes. You know, what we've argued, if you look at the range of forecasts, almost everybody is between like 40 ,000 and 100 ,000, 105 ,000. So you get a number like 30. I think that will be a very dramatic number. If it's outside the range of expectations. I mean, because this range is really tight in terms of market expectation. And I think it would put 50 on the table for the Fed, because I think the argument would be that if you get a number that's so low, you probably should have cut in June or July.

17:07And so you're not saying, oh my God, the world's coming to an end, everything's falling apart, but you're saying, yeah, well, we kind of missed it. The data weren't there at the time. In retrospect, had we had those data, we probably would have cut in June or July. So we're just doing catch up now. Now for us, the real issue is how do you interpret like 100 ,000? Because we would say, okay, 100 ,000 less our bias of 70 ,000 means real job creation of 30 ,000. So you should be talking about 50. I don't think we've convinced the market yet that that's the way you should look at it. By the way, just before going on, so on the eco page, consensus is 75K, consensus is for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.3%.

17:46Also average our earnings of 0.3 % month over month growth. So that's sort of like what we're looking at. This week, we've had some sort of soft data. We had initial claims today come in at 237K. That was ahead of the estimate of 230K. ADP employment, take it or leave it, 54K versus estimates of 68K down significantly from the 106K revised last month. ISM services employment, 46.5. That was a little bit shy of expectations. So soft and there's this risk of softening. I just think it's really interesting the range of possibilities for September because, you know, we were just in Jackson Hole and you're talking about, oh, maybe there's a case for 50, but there's also still a lot of residual concern about inflation and the inflation dragon has yet to fully be slayed.

18:32The reason I would focus on the labor market is because if it's as weak as we think it is and correctly measured, the slack in the labor market will take care of inflation. Okay. Again, I'm sort of more on Waller's side that you're not going to have any kind of power on the labor side. If I can make one comment, I mean, some people get their pleasure from banging their head against the wall. The wall I bang my head against once or twice a year is taking all of these incoming data on labor market indicators and trying to predict non-farm payrolls. You gotta have a hobby. You gotta have a hobby.

19:05And this one might be the definition of insanity and none of them work a bucket of spit. I'm looking at the Band-Aid on your forehead. See, this is, when you talk about banging your head against the wall for pleasure, you're actually talking literally it would appear. Well, you should see the wall. Okay. OK, we would be remiss if when we have you in the studio, if we did not ask about what's going on with bonds. So one of the things that's happening today is because of that softening jobs data that Joe just laid out, we are seeing a little bit of a recovery in bonds because there's more expectation that the Fed might cut.

19:41But the big story in recent days has been this huge sell off in bonds, particularly at the long end. And it does seem - Particularly in Europe. Particularly in Europe, but also in the US. It does seem kind of weird that we're talking about the economy slowing. And meanwhile, the long end of the curve just keeps going up. What's going on? Markets' attention span is maybe not as long as you give it credit for. And I think the problem is this, that you look at fiscal situations that are deteriorating globally and likely to deteriorate in the U.S., especially if anything happens with the tariffs to pull them back.

20:22And markets are kind of saying, look, in the long term, this doesn't look good. It looks like there's a lot of borrowing out there. But the long term in market terms can be six weeks and it can be six years. You don't know when those forces are going to matter. So absent anything else, the market pays attention to it. Then you sort of come in this week and every number seems to be soft. You say, oh my God, the Fed's going to cut. And all of a sudden, this sort of selling of bonds, especially because the market probably got reasonably short, worrying itself about the fiscal situation, they say, oh my God, maybe not so short.

20:55And people are buying back the bonds that they've sold. And you get the kind of dramatic movement we've seen this week. We've argued in the short term, both FX and bonds are going to be driven by the Fed and the US economy. And by short term, I mean the next month or six weeks. I think once you get past that, we don't think inflation is going to disappear. And even outside of the tariff-induced inflation, the non-tariff goods and services seem to be at best steady and maybe even edging up a bit. There's a bit of fiscal stimulus in Trump's fiscal package. I think it's possible that the economy is not as bad as it might look based on the employment numbers that we're getting, especially if there is a productivity pickup in the data that's not really recognized.

21:44So we see a possibility, or we actually see more than a possibility. We expect dollar weakness in the next couple of weeks. But by the time we get to the end of the year, we could see the dollar strengthening. Positioning is kind of short dollars in our view. And same with the bond market. And while the market's sort of saying, oh, my God, last week was debating zero and 25. This week, I suspect they'll be debating 25 and 50. While the market's debating that, bond yields are going to come down. Once that's kind of settled in terms of market expectations, I think they'll look at the fiscal picture and kind of say, you know, low fours, maybe not.

22:18It's interesting. It occurs to me when you say how when we talk about how bad the economy is, that there's actually two different ways of what bad could mean. So one is bad could just mean a sort of where you are on the cycle. We're in a deceleration cycle. We're not creating as many jobs. Therefore, we have to have a lower rate of interest to get things going again. But then bad could also mean more sort of qualitatively where what's really bad is slackening growth and also a firm inflation picture such that traditional measures of policy stimulus or de-stimulus don't work as well they'd like because there is some sort of deeper rot.

22:56And it sounds like what you're saying, if I can put all this together, is that cyclically, there's a slowdown. There may be a case for 50 basis point cut very soon, a case for lower rates, but not so bad in the case of the U.S. economy is broken and therefore policy measures won't work to get it revived again. Yeah, I think that's right. We actually don't think they'll do much more than 50. They'll say, OK, we've caught up, time to wait and see. And our baseline, because we're not yet sure about what the employment number is, is 25 and stop. But, you know, we've been talking about the choice being between 25 and 50.

23:32Just adding on one more. It really is just on the Europe situation. We mostly talk about the U.S. Like France has also their 10 year yield has been shooting higher. Yeah, this is the crazy thing. I think if we didn't have everything that was going on in the U.S. at the moment, the France story would be huge in the market. Yeah. So give us your talk to us about Europe for a minute. Yeah, look, there's a France story. I'm actually scheduled to go to France, but it looks like they might be on strike next week, so I'm not sure how that's going to play out. The structural problems that they face are kind of enormous.

24:04I mean, the French deficit's about as large as the U.S. deficit, and their interest rates are way lower than U.S. interest rates. They have a very fragile government. They're trying to do some sort of fiscal consolidation because it's not just a minority. It's like a tiny government. The opposition parties are kind of saying no way. And so that's setting the US aside. The French and broadly speaking, the European situation isn't that good. And in some cases, you're seeing sterling trade like an emerging markets economy in that the correlation of interest rates in the currency is not the normal G10 one, where higher rates lead to a stronger currency because people look at the return.

24:45the higher rates are viewed as risk premium and they're associated with a weaker currency. I mean, yeah, you can look at levels. Sorry, just to keep going. You can look at levels of debt to GDP or ratios, et cetera. But it sounds like the common thread here, at least to me, and this is the bias or this is my lens when you talk about what's going on in France. Maybe you won't even be able to visit there because of strike. When you talk about we had Liz Truss on the podcast recently, politically, these are not well-functioning polities right now, are they? Yes. And I'd say that the ability, particularly to get through unpopular measures like fiscal consolidation, is very limited.