The AI Industry Is Becoming Like Professional Sports

25:46Trust me, you're going to get a check that you would expect based on your ownership. So if you own 0.01 % of the company, you would expect that you get X of the headline number. And yes, it's coming to you. The weird thing about the windsurf deal was that that was not messaged. And so there was there was like this the zombie ship was more zombified. So like, well, yeah. And imagine imagine you're in a you're in a hyper competitive market where you're competing with Google and Anthropic and Cursor and all these different players. And then you lose your CEO and your top 50 engineers. And they're like, and you guys are going to do it.

26:21Don't worry. You guys have a strong balance sheet. You guys are going to do great. And we're also going to be competing with you at Google, but you guys are going to be fine. Good luck, guys. Great. Thanks for the help. Yeah. But this break, but like, okay, cognition came in. It sounds like all the employees will get something and something in the world. Yes, because there was cash on the balance sheet that got dividend out. But it didn't have to be that outcome. And so there's two things here that strike me. One is, again, this does not seem like the B2B SaaS era where it's like if you created the hottest billing product for dentist offices and that was gathering traction, no one would like just buy the talent that built that.

27:00So that's really different. Totally, totally. Because the ability to take value out via the talent channel rather than buying the product itself. But then also, and I'm just, you know, the knockout effects. Okay, fine. The Windsurf employees did fine. But going forward, there's no guarantee that they could have. And so I'm wondering from either a VC perspective or a future employees perspective, how this is going to change the sort of calculation that anyone makes when participating in a new AI startup. The fact that the enterprise may not be where the value actually is. So the first question is like this kind of is the example you gave of like buying the team that built the dentist B2B SaaS because Winsurf does not train foundation models.

27:40And Google is exceptional in training foundation models with Gemini and DeepMind. The DeepMind team is extremely well-staffed on AI researchers and continually seems to push the frontier, both in qualitative and quantitative metrics. And if they were weak anywhere, it was maybe product. Exactly. And so this is the – I don't want to be like, they're just product people. Sure. Sure. Windsurf has some amazing AI researchers, some amazing AI engineers, but what Windsurf really did, they did not train a frontier model that was about to disrupt Gemini. Yeah. DeepMind's foundation model. They were going after, you know, would you use a Google product?

28:20No, you would use Windsurf on top of Anthropoc or another foundation model. And ultimately, I don't think it's a systemic risk to the social contract of our industry. And the reason for that is that when you see a deal like the Google windsurf deal get done, it was very concerning. A lot of people were extremely angry. It ended up being a good outcome. A lot of employees were looking around, probably concerned about, you know, is the million dollars of stock that I've been working for for years worth anything at all? I think that was a good question to ask. But I think there's two things. One is AI is a category, and of course, it's touching kind of every category of venture in the private markets.

29:02But we're not seeing you're not seeing a defense tech founding team or engineering group get there's no real acqui-hire value there. The acqui-hires that are getting done in hard tech are, hey, you clearly have good engineering capabilities. We're happy to have you join the team. But there's no like real premium being placed on that kind of talent might be able to get a great comp packages. but they're certainly not getting these sort of multi-hundred million dollar premiums the other factor here is like we have a set like right now if you are one of the top 100 ai researchers you could probably get a hundred million dollar comp package like within a week if you really wanted it right and there's even people that are at thinking you know the reporting from this week was that and it was kind of hotly debated but that people at thinking machines mira marati's company former cto of open ai were turning down these sort of hundred million multi-hundred million dollar.

29:54There was a rumor that somebody had turned down a billion dollar five year contract. And I don't believe that those deals will be getting done in three years. Now I might be wrong. And there's going to be like probably some exceptions. But the idea that the 30th AI researcher on your team is going to make more than a mag seven CEO, like that doesn't feel hyper sustainable. Tim Cook has to make more money or the AI researchers have to make less. Tim Cook is looking dramatic. There have been existences on Wall Street where like a top trader, top dealmakers consistently make more than or will often make more than the CEO.

30:31Yeah, Citadel. Oh, absolutely. Because they're the ones that got the money in the door. Yeah.

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32:43Brokerage services for U.S.-listed registered securities, options and bonds, and a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Crypto trading provided by Backed Crypto Solutions, LLC. Complete disclosure is available at public.com slash disclosure. Can you talk a little bit more about, I guess, the fungibility of the IP here in both the practical and legal sense? So if I'm a VC or some sort of investor, I invest in an AI company because I get to own that technology, that intellectual property. But then let's say the main guy walks out the door, gets hired by Google or whoever.

33:17like how much of what he learned at his original firm or developed is immediately going to be replicated at Google? I bet. Almost all of it. Yeah, I guess this is like, this is exactly why they're paying that much money. This is a long winded way of saying how many lawsuits are we going to get after all these acquihires? So I think one way you can look at some of Zuck's deals are like unauthorized acquihires. It's like the other CEO is not even participating in the deal. But, you know, Zuck is able to come in and be like, would I pay if this if these 10 people were working on a company independently, would I pay a billion dollars to bring them onto my team?

33:52100 percent. OK, let's do the deal. It doesn't matter that you're kind of piecing it all up from a I think going back to like the kind of Wall Street example of like a top trader who maybe is like putting up consistently incredible returns with some sort of like differentiated approach that person can go. And as long as they have capital at the new company, they're going to be able, I imagine, to continue to just follow that same type of strategy. I do think that AI and large language models are somewhat different in that you have to look at what is the AI product that these companies are going to sell.

34:23How much of an impact is that individual engineer or researcher going to have? And it's fairly obvious with OpenAI, they're a consumer tech company, right? They sell subscriptions to ChatGPT. They have some other use cases. It's obvious that companies like Anthropic, where they're in the co-generation business, they don't really have a consumer business. And at Meta, it's a little bit less clear right now because the sort of ongoing product strategy is not entirely clear yet. The thing that is obvious is that if you can make a$20 billion training run more efficient, then you pay for yourself pretty quickly.

34:56We should just point out the Wall Street analogy is not perfect, right? Because if you're a high flyer at a wall street firm either client facing or if you're trading if you join someone else you usually have a non-compete agreement in one form or another so you can't take all your existing clients with you and then b you're often on an enforced gardening leave for a really long time oh yeah i imagine in the massive race that is ai at the moment uh there's no gardening also the nature of the intellectual property i believe is a little bit different still i think of this I think it's a 2012 example from Citadel in Chicago where a high-frequency trader stole some code.

35:34Yeah. And they sent – and he had it on his hard drive. You know the story? Yes. It was really famous when it happened. He like sent it to himself or something. Yeah, yeah. So he exfiltrated some code, some very definitive code of how to make money in the market and get an edge. And he figured out that they were on his trail and he threw his hard drive into the river. and they sent scuba divers into the river and got it back. I didn't know that part. The other high profile SV example was the guy going from Google self-driving to Uber. Oh, yeah. Yes, yeah. And so taking specific code, that's not happening.

36:09I mean, there's probably going to be like one example of this that pops up, but mostly it's just you get someone who says, I understand that at my previous job, we scaled up the transformer a little too far and we didn't focus on reasoning enough. And so we need to shift this spend to test time inference. And it's almost like you're leaving a company and you're just, you're leaving with like a mindset of like the right balance of CapEx to OpEx or something like that. What was the recent Jane Street example that came out in that lawsuit around it? Was it the trading strategy? We only really all learned what was happening because there was this lawsuit over basically the team bringing over some type of IP or methodology.

36:52Yeah. Can we talk about the broader sort of economic world right now? Because there's a bunch of other sort of things going on and things that you talk about, touch on them. Last thing, because I think it's pretty interesting. So we put out the Metis list. I think it was Monday. And we immediately had a ton of inbound from a lot of these researchers, basically like critiquing the ranking. And the ranking was like, we got people that work in AI to kind of like rank them. This is the beauty of ranks. you do you get so much it's amazing i understand why every venture capital firm puts out market maps down the beauty of rank and there's one uh there was one example that was interesting where somebody that was ranked fairly high that i know has gotten one of these nine figure comp packages and somebody that worked with him basically said this person was kicked off of every team they worked on and just like effectively like over multi-year period like consistently demoted over and over and over.

37:48And then just got the back. And now, like, got, you know, this incredible. Please, can you factor in soft skills into the rankings? Well, yeah, and it was more of, like, a technical ability thing. It was not even, because I think soft skills are getting a little bit, you know, they don't get a bill anymore. You don't care that LeBron James, like, might get a little angry at somebody if they underperform, right? Yeah, sorry. No, no, no, no, no. So this phenomenon of, like, superstars, like, it's not just in tech. And like we see it, I mentioned, in journalism where, you know, the sort of like median reporter job in a newsroom, a lot of that's hollowing out.

38:25But you have some people who become insanely well compensated either because they're really smart and they write a great newsletter or they're really good looking and they can do front facing video, et cetera. Or, you know, like the four of us, you know, like can do something on video or something like that. You see it in a range of areas and then like the amount of betting that's going on, which, of course, adds to this. And so the fact that all of these events, there's some market out there that you can bet on that. And I'm curious, like from your coast, you know, you're here in New York, but from your coast, what does the world look like in terms of just like the state of this economy?

39:00Yeah, there's something interesting going on in tech where the idea of a company going from 100 billion to a trillion seemed unfathomable. And there's this take that, in fact, that was the easiest 10X of all, where the hardest 10X was going from zero to one, from going to zero to a million dollars and getting these systems, inventing PageRank. And then once you had Google humming at$100 billion market cap, getting to a trillion, not to knock on the work that they did to get that, but the numbers have just kept growing and growing at internet scale, at internet speed. And so the leverage that you're getting from an AI researcher is ever more increasing.

39:40And it just adds 10x every couple of years. And so you're seeing the comp packages increase that way. We have a couple of things like the internet is the greatest distribution engine for information and digital products and apps and services ever. And so at least in venture, that just means that everything is faster now, even in media too. too. If you're if you are somebody's working at a legacy media company, and they set up a sub stack, they can get a million dollars of ARR on the first day that they launch. If somebody is working at a media company and really good at a certain type of YouTube video, they can launch and immediately, the YouTube algorithm will serve that video to all of their fans within the first week.

40:22And that what that does is it just changes, you know, the power dynamic between media companies. You see this leverage come in through financial markets. If you can lever up or just marshal more capital, one idea can generate billions of dollars in value. Same thing in technology, but we aren't seeing it everywhere. I don't think we're seeing it in hard skills, woodworking, unless you get into true art territory. But there is this interesting question about what's up next. And we were noodling on there might be a law firm in the future that's extremely high leverage in the same sense that you might have a lawyer who's so good at what they do and they are so good at resolving these and then the connections and everything that they're doing they're making billions but they have a very very lean team and so you see a much a much steeper power law in in law and there's a there's a number of other professional services that are going through like a transformation with technology bringing increased leverage to the profession.

41:22And that could drive more of that power law outcome in terms of earnings. Yeah. The thing, you know, in the private markets on the West coast, which is the dynamic right now, that's fascinating is like, I feel like a lot of people have like a little bit of PTSD from the 2020 to 2022 era where many of the things that in hindsight were incredible top signals are like all popping up again right now. And like, we like, we like trap, we track them just for fun. We're not in the business of like calling calling the top or anything like that and in many ways it feels like you know there's so many positive indicators but the interesting dynamic in in venture is like as as an angel investor i've invested in probably 65 or so different companies at the pre-seed to series a stage and there was a bunch of deals that i did in 2021 2022 that ultimately like i paid too much or just like the team wasn't good enough to execute against the vision they had but there was also just like a handful of deals that I did that that have been performed so well that it doesn't matter that I did a bunch of silly deals.

42:25And so venture right now is this interesting kind of dynamic where everybody knows that it's crazy, right? You have hundreds of billions of dollars of value created in the private markets that there's a lot of real revenue growth, but there's also hundreds of billions of dollars of value tied to zero revenue, right? And I think that there's something that we've been tracking is like this underlying kind of feeling from people that are maybe under 30 of there's like this meme that's become very prevalent. And I think it explains a lot of economic activity today, which is young people feel that they have two years to accumulate capital to escape the permanent underclass.

43:03And so I think that drives a lot of investing activity today in that, you know, you'll see young people on the timeline saying that, like, you'd be stupid not to use leverage, you know, and they're and they're just like, you know, they're not a professional investor in any capacity. Don't do it. And, you know, any, anytime you have people in venture making public market stock predictions, we get a little concerned. Are we going to get AI talent agents? Not AI agents. We have those already, but AI talent agents, because like, we do. So we do. They're called venture capitalists. Oh, well, but yes, this was going to be my next sentence.

43:42So if the money is no longer in, you know, I invest in a startup and eventually they get the exit, they get acquired or they list or whatever. If the money is in eventually the guy that started the startup gets bought by someone like Meta or whoever, wouldn't I invest my money in that person versus in the startup? Indentured service. Yeah. You can't quite do that, but there are a ton of roles that are indexed to these high performance packages. And yes, there are people right now in Silicon Valley who are effectively talent agents who get a cut of those big packages and they help negotiate. What are they called?

44:17Just talent agents? Called venture capitalists. No, no, no. So you can, if you find a great researcher and you think that, okay, maybe they will build a business, but I'm sure that they are going to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year and you can just invest in their company, you will almost certainly see a good return on that investment, even if the product never gets to scale. Because when they get an aqua hire you will get a payout other scouts going to a lot of these like the win the win the win the gold medal and like going there and like the imo is the new hot who are like oh absolutely absolutely it's now it's now so normalized to invest in college dropouts that you actually see people like investing in high school students i'm not kidding about this so the imo gold medal is the math olympiad and there are venture capitalists who will give calls to every single student that performs well on the Math Olympiad.

45:08And these are high school students. So what are these investments exactly? Like, you're funding their tuition or whatever? No, no, no, no. I am taking 10 or 20 % of a company, of a Delaware C-Corp most likely, that you will build something in. And who knows where it goes? Maybe it turns into a great business. Maybe it turns into an acqui-hire. But the downside is extremely limited because there's always this, at least right now there's this aqua hire there's this aqua hire on the table where it used to be but but to be clear that is only an ai yes it's only for the the people that that you would consider to be the top 500 yes in their industry it's not to go back to the cursor windsurf thing like instagram was the power law winner got the billion dollar acquisition from meta hipstamatic was the second largest photo filtering app did not get a billion dollar aqua hire from Google, right?

46:02But now we're in the market where if there's a leading product with a bunch of AI researchers over here and they get a multi-billion dollar acquisition for the product and the product's working and it's growing and it is a great business and you buy it for the value of the business, then the second best team might get acquired just for talent, which is a completely different downside protection. Yeah. And there's a lot of talent acquisitions, traditional acquires where it's only the talent that benefit, right? In the sense that they get basically a job offer at the new company and VCs get some capital back or in some cases, a small amount of money.

46:34Can I ask a TBPN question? This should be like the ultimate compliment, which is that I got a DM from some random person. I had never seen them the other day. And he said, I can build TBPNs for X. So like that stack, that sort of live thing, which means it's sort of like it's become like Kleenex or one of these things where it's like a category. And where are you going with it? What are your plans for it? It's so funny that people are calling it TVPN for X because our show, while it's unique in a variety of ways, looks very much like traditional television. Yeah, it does, which is interesting.

47:10And so we can't take credit for inventing business television. We like to joke, we invented TV, we invented media, we invented ads. But there has also been live streaming before. Of course. Normally, it doesn't really, I don't know, it's like, why would I watch cable news online? I think the thing that's exciting is that in the private markets and venture and tech, if you had a podcast, there was one format, which was a once a week interview show. And it was a great strategy to do that 10 years ago, around the time that you guys. No, and it still works. You're going to stick around forever. You're locked in.

47:45Established talent. But if we tried to clone this, everyone would be like, why is that a knockoff? There's nothing new about this. Nothing fresh about this. It's like, why do I want to go on your knockoff? I just go on the real thing. Yeah. And so our edge in launching the show at the beginning of the year is that media is not zero sum. Content is not zero sum. We have a friend that jokes that he's so competitive. He wishes media was zero sum. It was truly zero sum. But our edge early was that we just took it 10 times more seriously than anyone else. So everybody that was creating content for the private markets was doing it as a part time gig.

48:20and we were happy to compete with a bunch of people that were part-time. You know what actually I was wondering? In 2021 or 2022, that craziness. Someone once reached out to me and they were like, you know what, you should like... Bitcoin treasury vehicle. You should go direct. It was probably the pitch. But this was the interesting thing. He said you should go independent and what you should do is attach a VC arm to it. And because of the quality of the guests that you could get, you would get really good access to deal flow. But it seems like basically it was very uncomfortable to me because I'm not going to like highlight startup founders and say, oh, you're the perfect guest.

49:01And it's like, because like I have like 5 % equity. But I'm curious about, because you mentioned doing angel, the sort of link, TBPN at some point. So angel investing, I look at as a hobby. It's not a great financial activity, right? Locking up capital. I've heard locking up. I mean, like you can generate great returns, but it's not the most logical way to invest your time. But it's really fun. Like we just enjoy supporting founders early when it's an idea and a team. And it's just it is genuinely addicting. I always joke about people in San Francisco with angel, you know, people across the country, sports betting addictions, San Francisco, you know, angel investing addictions are, I think, real.

49:45But for us, for us, that was, you know, as we started having some success, a lot of people, they would probably get a message a day. When's the fun coming? When's the fun coming? And that's been a way to monetize an audience within tech. If you have an audience, go raise a hundred million dollar fund. You get the fee stream. Some stackers do that. You get a bunch of upside. And we joke because we have the shows every single day. We go live at 11. We have to eat. We have to work out. the show we have to prep the show we have to talk with partners we have to manage our team there's all these different things and so somebody might immediately think okay these guys talk to six founders and investors a day they have this like media property that like i think everybody in venture now is going to see our content like once a week in some form or another if they're if they're online but i joke with them i'm like so we're live for three hours every single day during the middle of the day.

50:44And so if you think that we with a show would effectively compete at VC is about winning allocation, right? You can be cool and connected and have an audience that might get you 100K allocation. But if you have$100 million fund, you need to be putting size into deals. And so I know that if John and Jordy have a VC fund, and we're competing with these other guys that have a live show that they're live for three hours a day, and they have a VC fund, we'd smoke them because we'd be like okay while they're live i'm gonna fly to the founder i'm gonna meet with them and we're gonna win this deal and we're gonna be like yeah why don't why don't you let them put in like 200k so the thing to watch out for for when the vc fund is coming is when you start reducing your live hours that'll be the sign yeah and i think i think we we didn't get into this to start a fund and i think there's a lot of people that get into content because they see it as a way to do that and we just love talking about tech it actually was the key insight was that not enough people.

51:40Yeah, it's very fun, but not, but very few people in tech were actually taking media seriously. Yeah. It was, everyone had a fund everyone. That was the high status thing and doing media was like lower status or people didn't think we could have as much of a power outcome as it very clearly can. And so this idea of, of just what if you actually took it completely seriously and just made it the main thing. And we've had a bunch of people copy our format you know major legacy media companies all the way through friends of ours uh it doesn't really bother i mean it bothers me more than john but but at the end of the day if you want to spend you're the tracy by the way yeah it bothers me too i totally get it and so it's like we basically know so so john and i john and i basically hang out for 12 hours a day and the entire time interesting the entire time we're thinking we're thinking about the show we're just talking about the show doesn't look very different than when we're hanging out offline and so I just joke I'm like okay if you want to compete with us and you're willing to put it 100 hours a week in by all means go for it like this is probably your life's work but if it's not good luck it doesn't matter John Coogan Jordy Hayes thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots those are the last and congrats and good luck and looking forward to continue watching CBPN we'll be live from Nicey later Oh, nice.

53:04This is for the Figma IPO. Figma IPO and OddLots in the same day. What a day. And in the wake of meta. Pinch me. Pinch me. All right. Take care, guys. Thank you for having us. Thank you so much for having us.

53:28Tracy, that was a lot of fun. It was. A little bit media navel gazing. So that's fun. A little bit media navel gazing. I mean, there is this thing that's happening. It's been happening in media for a while. And of course it happens in Wall Street. And now happening in AI, where you just have a lot of talented people and they wonder about the degree to which they need their existing platform. They're, you know, like a star banker can take a book of business or a star lawyer can take a book of business. And in the case of AI, it's not taking a book of business, right, because they don't have like their individual clients.

54:04But it's this knowledge and transport it and it's instantly worth a lot of money for someone somewhere else. The thing I thought was really interesting about that discussion was the emphasis on how capital intensive all of AI is. And so that kind of changes the economics of why you're paying such massive money for someone who's able to like eke out even a slight efficiency. This is huge. Ends up being massive. This is huge. This was like this. It suddenly is what made it all made sense to me. Right. Because we know about like how costly one training run is. Right. And we know just the insane numbers for data center set up, et cetera.

54:41And I'm sure there's progress being made on the literal design of like how you string together NVIDIA GPUs, et cetera. And so if you could get some margin, if you know, have that know-how to get some marginal improvement out of it. And this is fundamentally what was. One trillion dollars for you. Maybe. Not a trillion. No, not a trillion yet. But like this was not the case when tech was not so capital intensive in the 2010s where, yeah, I'm sure talented people always made a lot of money and there's always improvements. But where it's so that link between some sort of efficiency gain and instant cost savings is so linear and so straightforward.

55:18Yeah. And I take their point that, OK, VCs exist and they're already investing in some ways in specific talent. But I do kind of wonder if you're going to get some sort of like specialized headhunters at the very least who are going to like seek out these big AI talents and try to like graph themselves onto them. Yeah, just people whose expertise is in reading through undersighted, undersighted AI research papers. The moneyball approach to AI research. Yeah, well, we can't give you Sam Altman, but what if we could replace Sam Altman in the aggregate? But this guy has 50 citations in the following papers.

55:52Should we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest, Jordy Hayes. He's at Jordy Hayes. And John Coogan at John Coogan. And check out TBPN at TBPN. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash Odd Lots.

56:27And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about the sportification of AI talent, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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