In short
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, discusses prediction markets as “truth machines” and a new asset class, their accuracy, regulation, and how they fit into Robinhood’s vision of becoming a “financial super app.” He also explains Robinhood’s push to tokenize stocks and expand access to private markets, plus how the company manages product priorities and user risk.
Guest backgrounds
Alex Heath and Ellis Hamburger host. Vlad Tenev is Robinhood’s CEO, leading trading, retirement, credit card, and prediction market products; he frames Robinhood as a compounding-asset business.
Key claims
Prediction markets set prices based on “real skin in the game,” producing forecasts more reliable than polls/opinions; they’re CFTC-regulated (not a Wild West). Robinhood’s prediction growth is driven by sports and expanding non-sports categories (economics, tech, politics). Tokenization improves access, enables 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and better stock lending economics. Speculation is necessary for market functioning.
Notable examples
NYC mayoral election dashboards calling outcomes early; Kalshi calling a race about an hour before CBS; weather/precipitation and fire/wildlife contracts; GameStop scenario prevented by instant settlement.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOLive Show Experience at Google Ventures
2:28 to 6:10
Alex and Ellis discuss their recent live podcasting experience.
“Vlad Tenev about the rise of prediction markets, his priorities as a CEO, and more.”
Launch of New AI Company and Its Unique Vision
6:10 to 10:29
Discussion about a new AI company and its focus on different user demographics.
“Very excited about that to discuss a lot with him.”
Reflections on Networking and Industry Events
10:29 to 14:00
Exploration of the importance of networking at industry events.
“outsider's perspective even though I'm there a ton and I still am routinely like I can't believe this is actually this place.”
Building Trust with Sources
14:00 to 15:24
Learn strategies for establishing valuable connections and sharing information.
“I would love to add you as a source on Signal.”
Post-Earnings Week Insights
17:38 to 19:16
Understand the fast-paced work environment after company earnings are reported.
“What's a post-earnings week like for you?”
The Role of Prediction Markets
19:16 to 21:24
Explore how prediction markets function and their relevance to media and decision-making.
“They're also, I've called them truth machines.”
Debating the Accuracy of Predictions
21:24 to 24:28
Examine the factors contributing to the accuracy of prediction markets and the skepticism surrounding them.
“I think as a trading product, it's interesting because a lot of people talk about it as a trading product and you get these questions about, well, is it just gambling?”
Regulations and the Future of Prediction Markets
24:28 to 28:00
Discuss the regulatory landscape of prediction markets and their potential impact on journalism and trading.
“because this does feel relatively unregulated, right?”
Understanding Financial Behavior with Retirement Accounts
28:00 to 29:22
Explore how users engage more with individual brokerage accounts after using retirement accounts.
“But actually, that didn't end up happening.”
Competitive Landscape of Prediction Markets
29:23 to 30:58
Discuss the dynamics of prediction markets and competitor strategies in the finance sector.
“But I saw an ad today in the Wall Street Journal that said, if you're looking for a broker that's not also your bookie, we invite you to try public.”
Show all 27 chapters
Growth and Expansion of Prediction Markets
30:59 to 33:57
Learn about the evolution and growth potential of prediction markets beyond sports.
“trading options and they were kind of against it.”
Democratizing Financial Products and Risk Management
33:58 to 36:17
Examine how financial products can be made accessible to everyone and the implications of risk management.
“I don't think that there's so many ways we can continue to improve it and make it more useful and better.”
Navigating Criticism of Gamification in Finance
36:18 to 37:18
Delve into the balance between accessibility in finance and the potential risks of gamification.
“And then frequently, I think the other side of it that I hear from you and others is also, well, look like This was already available, but it was for a select few.”
Speculation and Its Role in Market Functionality
37:19 to 41:49
Understand the necessity of speculation in financial markets and how it contributes to market health.
“It's a longstanding criticism of every financial market that they're speculators.”
Challenges of Recommendation Systems in Finance
41:50 to 42:00
Explore the complexities of making personalized financial recommendations in a regulated environment.
“If you look at asset growth on the platform over time, it's not a churn and burn business where people put money in and then their account goes to zero.”
Navigating Product Decisions at Robinhood
42:00 to 43:19
Explore the challenges of making product recommendations in a regulated environment.
“I'm just so fascinated by, you know, this kind of conceptual idea that maybe you bring some money into a product and there's two buttons there.”
Understanding Tokenization and its Importance
45:23 to 47:06
Delve into the concept of tokenization and its implications for public companies.
“Now, within the U.S., it's a little bit more incremental.”
Challenges in Accessing Private Company Stocks
47:07 to 48:57
Discuss the difficulties in trading private shares and the potential solutions.
“So you could be waiting quite a while before you could make a trade.”
The Future of Retail Access to IPOs
48:58 to 51:29
Examine the evolution of retail access to IPOs and the role of public sentiment.
“who are willing to go on the journey with us.”
Coping with Success and Staying Grounded
51:30 to 54:28
Explore how to maintain focus and avoid complacency amid success.
“You look at AI in particular, where are the fans?”
Reflections on Past Challenges and Current Opportunities
54:29 to 56:00
Reflect on past hardships and how they shape current business opportunities.
“Yeah, you've seen some crazy lows, and it feels like right now you're at this insane high.”
The Cyclical Nature of Business
56:00 to 56:39
Learn about the importance of staying vigilant in business cycles.
“Look, we have to remind ourselves to not get complacent.”
Media and Social Networks
56:40 to 57:11
Discover the intersection of media and social networks in business.
“I didn't get too many podcast invites, uh, back in 2020.”
Building a Financial Social Network
57:12 to 59:06
Explore how a new social network aims to engage users with financial content.
“We have a highly engaged customer base that's rather large.”
The Challenge of Digital Addiction
59:07 to 1:01:28
Discuss the impact of digital addiction on younger generations and solutions.
“And the more assets we add, so now with prediction markets and options and futures and equities, you can imagine the stronger kind of that network effect would be.”
Innovative Earnings Presentations
1:01:29 to 1:04:20
Learn how earnings calls are evolving into more engaging experiences.
“But yeah, if I had to think about like one personal cause that I legitimately really am worried about, it's just like digital addiction.”
The Importance of Trust in Presentation
1:04:21 to 1:05:58
Understand the role of authenticity and trust in public presentations.
“So I think we've been able to make it more engaging while, while still obviously providing the necessary information and communicating the results well.”
Transcript
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1:03Kara Swisher:You can tell a lot about a person by their accent. I really do say I pod my cat and have a yad. Everyone around here says like a coffee and dog. We're so attached to the way that we sound because it tells a part of the story of who we are. Your accent? Decoded. That's this week on Explain It To Me. Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.
1:52Kara Swisher:and fries in New York City. And save your favorite spots, share lists, follow editors, and book right in the app. Download the Eater app at eaterapp.com. It's free for iOS users. Hi, everyone. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. Happy New Year. We're off for the holiday, but we still got something special for you today. We're bringing you an episode of Access, another great Vox Media podcast. It's hosted by Alex Heath and Ellis Hamburger, and it features conversations with Silicon Valley's most influential leaders. On this episode, they're talking to Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev about the rise of prediction markets, his priorities as a CEO, and more.
2:36Kara Swisher:Alex and Ellis always ask smart questions, so don't go anywhere. We have to remind ourselves to not get complacent. I try to remind our employees of that as well. And I'm saying it to the employees as much as I'm saying it to myself, right? Like, I know inevitably I've been through so many of these cycles. There's going to be a time in the future where everyone thinks we're shitheads again. Hopefully less acute than times before and generally I believe the trend will be up, but, you know, it's always cyclical to some degree and that's just what we sign up for.
3:14Alex Heath:It's Access, part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. We're back, baby, from San Francisco day trip feeling fresh feeling alive at least i think i am maybe more so than you ellis ellis hamburger what's up yeah i'm not quite as well practiced as you are yet alex with the like go to three facebook events in one week yeah uh all three separate day trips this was my first san francisco day trip it was fun i liked it it wasn't a day trip you spent the night with your brother yes technically but it was like 24 hours i guess i would say that's that's a day i need we established I need a cooler suitcase.
3:50Yes. Since toting around a 10-year-old travel pro suitcase is like no Remova. I think, as you said, Ellis, at least get in the way suitcase. And I think you were 100 % right about that. If anyone is listening, forming my Christmas list. Yeah. Hint, hint.
4:07Alex Heath:It was great. We had some good partner meetings and then we did our first live show with the fine folks at Google Ventures. that interview is going to air next week. That was great. What did you think of the first live pod experience? It was fun. I mean, I'm not much of a stool guy. I don't love to sit on stools. I don't know. I don't want to do like the Donald Trump Jr. like hyper straight sitting on the stool posture. But I also don't want to slouch. You know what I'm saying? I was also holding my daylight tablet, which was misbehaving a little bit. and I could not get Android to increase the size of the font on the screen.
4:50So you're right, Alex. I was squinting at that a little bit. Yeah. But I thought it went well. I mean, it was a good vibe. Our guest, Winston Weinberg of Harvey, which for the life of me, I cannot remember that name, was a lovely guest. And yeah, I guess we'll see how the audio and video look and sound. First time we've done that thing live.
5:11Alex Heath:Yeah, AI for lawyers. I appreciated his candidness on things that CEOs normally dodge. I don't want to spoil too much, but I thought it was a pretty good convo. And you know what? We got like three or four Google digs in at a Google Ventures event, and they loved it. So I say that's a win-win. I think we scared some of the Google Ventures folks a little bit with our first question about the worst advice Google Ventures ever gave you. But we brought it back around, and they loved us by the end of it. Yeah. I think for me, what it showed is that we should do live more often. I think when you and I are together, it's just way easier to pick up on little things and interject.
5:50Alex Heath:And some of the most fun moments are when you can just react in the moment. And it's just so much harder virtually. It is. I mean, with virtual, all I've got is like, are you marginally opening your mouth to indicate that you may want to speak? That's all I've got in terms of body language. Right. We've got Vlad Tenev, the CEO of Robinhood, on the show coming up very soon. Very excited about that to discuss a lot with him. But there's some other news in your world this week, right? Yeah, I had a big launch for a company I'm advising and have been helping since they were an itty bitty baby startup a couple years ago.
6:28They were actually one of my very first clients at Meaning back when they were called M1. And they've been building in stealth, which isn't quite as common these days. But the reason for that is because they've been evolving the product from something similar to maybe what Granola and some of the other note takers were offering a couple of years ago to being very vertical specific, kind of in the way that like Harvey, as we talk about on that on that next episode is building for lawyers. I think we're starting to see that creating the right interface for different audiences takes something from being a rapper, which, as you say on the show, is like used to be a derogatory thing, to actually being a potential smash hit.
7:10and so essentially what Beside is is it's kind of like they rebuilt the phone and the messages app with a new phone number for you for people who work on their phones all day like as they wrote on their blog there are like 100 million Americans like real estate agents, contractors, plumbers truck dispatchers who like work on their phone like phone phone not like FaceTime audio
7:35Alex Heath:I'm on calls yeah journalists as well And yet they can answer less than half of the calls that they get just because they're working all day. I have too many sources calling me, Ellis. I can't answer at all. Yeah, yeah. So it's kind of like a combination of an AI receptionist with an AI note taker that deeply gets to know you. And apparently it's taken off. Yeah, they just raised$32 million. And so, yeah, I'm excited to have Maxine, the CEO, on the pod in a few weeks. Yeah. I think my favorite thing about their launch today, though, is they did like fashion photo shoot with like less glamorous users, I guess I would say, like in tech.
8:14I mean, we just got back from San Francisco and like every single billboard is for like your chief people officer.
8:20Alex Heath:Yeah. Like, how about the grandma who runs the winery or the, you know, Joe, the plumber or someone who does insurance or something like that? These are people who probably need the tech more than we do to increase our to-do list efficiency by 8%. People who can't stand the busy work that they have to do all day, every day. And so, yeah, I like that they're trying to build for a different customer than the average. Yeah, I saw your tweet. What is grandma-centric design? I just like the idea that everybody in tech always talks about user-centered design. but the user is usually like a designer in San Francisco that they're designing for.
9:02See, I'm bullish on grandma-centered design. I actually think AI is like absolutely perfect for this. Like grandma doesn't know how to vibe code nap or even what that means, let alone create her own receptionist for like her small business. But with this software, you can essentially tell the AI how you want to answer the phone, what questions you wanted to ask, have it input it all into a document or a form for you. And then it's done. It's like, is that not the dream of like natural language programming or coding? And for an audience that, like I said, probably needs it more than we do.
9:38Alex Heath:Yeah, it is funny when you go to SF. We're at Shack 15, which is this new buzzy kind of co-working space in the Ferry building where GV was having the live pod taping. And man, the stuff you just overhear in there, it's like, yeah, this is such a bubble. uh you know like you i was walking to the bathroom and it was multiple people talking about their vc funds you like you'll walk by over subscribed uh the rounds full like well you know just like things that would feel meany or like something on a tv show uh if you were outside of san francisco but are just so normal and i like leaving and coming back i am going back tomorrow for another ai conference cerebral valley shout out eric newcomer it's a great ai conference but I like leaving and going because it gives me a little bit of a outsider's perspective even though I'm there a ton and I still am routinely like I can't believe this is actually this place.
10:36Alex Heath:I mean maybe this is how San Franciscans feel when they come to LA and they go to a coffee shop and it's people talking about their script or something right like every city has this microcosm but just the opposite of GCD is what we experienced at the Ferry Building I think Yeah, I mean, if you're into this stuff, it's pretty fun, right? Like, I remember my first trip as a reporter to San Francisco, and I went to this coffee shop called The Mill, and there's Mike Krieger, like the co-creator of Instagram, just like doing something on his laptop. And you know, to us, those kinds of people are celebrities, right?
11:14And then on the plane ride back today, I'm on the plane with Aziz Ansari and Queens of the Stone Age. are you serious on the yeah so i guess i got i got a bit of yeah yeah we made an eye contact a couple times shout out aziz did you uh get him to subscribe oh i played it cool i played it cool so what are you going to tomorrow worth going to san francisco twice in one week yeah i mean it
11:38Alex Heath:will have been over by the time this comes out but eric newcomer who does a great newsletter on substack newcomer uh and podcast does uh this cerebral valley ai summits every year this is like the third year I've gone every year, I think. And he has a bunch of great AI founders, investors, all get together for a big powwow. And there's a bunch of like networking. And it's a really good for me, just temperature check on the state of the industry. It's fun to look back at each year when I do my recap to see how the conversation shifted. Like, I think the last time I went, everyone was paranoid about the scaling laws and has AI hit its limits.
12:19Alex Heath:You know, this was, I think, uh, you know, it was way before GPT five, but it was like, are we going to keep getting games out of training? And, you know, cause it's also like a bunch of researchers are there. Um, and so it's always fun. I'll be curious to see what the, uh, the temperature is. I imagine it's going to be a lot of AI bubble stuff, uh, this time. Um, but yeah, I'm going to go back for that. And, uh, I mean, Lord willing, right. Uh, I, I tweeted this, uh, the day we left for SF, uh, protect flighty at all costs. It actually went pretty viral, uh, because you know, the flights are, flights are rough right now.
12:53Alex Heath:And, uh, if you are not a flighty user, uh, they're not sponsoring us, but shout out flighty, uh, it is a great app for tracking your flights. It actually saved me from being stuck on the tarmac until about 3 AM, uh, last night. So I moved my flight up because of the tarmac tracker it's got. So that's a great app, really great app. How many hashtag sources are you hoping to come out of this event with? Do you have like a quota for each event you go to? No, I'm going to see existing sources. I always make new ones. You know, I really think pounding the pavement, so to speak, is the returns are very hard to quantify in the near term, but very real in the long term.
13:36Alex Heath:It's almost impossible for me to point to the impact of all of this in real life networking that I have always made a concerted effort to do, like the impact of it on my career, but it's been immense. I mean, it's obviously easier when you don't have kiddos, but, and your flights make it on time. So we'll see. But for now I'm going to do it as long as I don't keep getting sick. What does one say? I would love to add you as a source on Signal. Where do you add someone these days? Yeah, Signal is where it gets real. Sometimes the best source is you never have that conversation. It's just a natural thing.
14:21Alex Heath:It's like falling in love. It's like falling in source. Sure. Yeah. Can you give us a pickup line for making a new source? I usually lead with like something I've heard. It's not a line, but I lead with like a little gossip to try to stir the pot. You know, you can't just be a taker. You got to be a giver. Yeah, that's actually interesting. That reminds me back when I feel like back when I was at Snap, sometimes you would say something to me like, oh, I heard blank. And you wouldn't even ask me a question. But what am I going to do? just sit there and then I just start talking. Not that I shared anything.
14:57No, you didn't. Exactly what you were doing. Yeah. But it is a good strategy because no one wants to like be awkward when someone says something and they share something interesting. And like it makes you want to say something back.
15:10Alex Heath:So sometimes the best question is not a question at all. Perfect. Okay. Well, let's ask Vlad some questions. Shall we kick it to Vlad? Yeah, let's kick it to Vlad.
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17:38Alex Heath:Vlad, good to see you. What's a post-earnings week like for you? I'm curious, especially lately. It's only Tuesday day when we're recording this, but what's it been like? It's just back to work. I think we spend very little time actually digesting the earnings. I mean, we know them ahead of time. So pretty much that same day, we're back to work, working on what's the next product we're shipping. Now we're towards the end of the year. So we're finalizing the product roadmap and the financial plan for next year. So back to business, you know, and we've got a product event coming up in early December, just in a couple of weeks.
18:20So kicking, that's starting to kick into high gear.
18:22Alex Heath:I think where we'd like to start though is prediction markets, because it's something that everyone's talking about. I think a lot of people are starting to experience it for the first time through the context of sports betting, but elections. I was at Cal She HQ in New York with Tarek last week for the New York mayoral race, watching them, the dashboards kind of live and seeing how that was playing out on prediction markets. It was really interesting to see how early everything was getting called and how definitively it was getting called before traditional media. And I know you have a lot of thoughts about prediction markets and how they relate to the future of media, but for people who are new to this idea of prediction markets, can you just kind of take a step back and help us understand why you think the world needs this, why this is a, I've heard you call it a new asset class.
19:12Alex Heath:Is that right? Yeah, it's definitely a new asset class. They're also, I've called them truth machines. They're actually a mechanism for discovering truth when you're talking about the future. And what I mean by that is it's not, there's all sorts of times where we want to know what the likelihood of something happening is. Presidential election, probably the best example. What's the likelihood that Trump or Harris would have won the election? The New York City mayor was a recent one. What's the likelihood that AI will achieve superhuman performance? We have all these questions. And this is a mechanism where it's not a guess, it's not a poll, but it's a real price set by market actors with real skin in the game.
20:04And as you've pointed out, they've turned out to be pretty remarkably accurate, especially when compared against alternatives, which are just opinions or polls. And I think the reason this is needed is there's so much information out there right now. I mean, it's easy to create content and to share one's opinion on the internet. uh social media has enabled that at large scale and you're just flooded with content flooded with opinions and it's become much more difficult to actually sort out what's reliable and what's not back you know 30 to 40 years ago you used to have walter cronkite in the cbs evening news and you basically knew that if walter cronkite was telling you something that not only should you believe it, but everyone else around you was probably watching it and would believe it as well.
21:05And now that sort of like uniformity of shared belief and opinion is gone. And I think prediction markets are a digital and financial answer to that. It's kind of like social media and financial markets coming together to give you really reliable forecasts about the future. I think as a trading product, it's interesting because a lot of people talk about it as a trading product and you get these questions about, well, is it just gambling? Is it trading? But what you have is the traders are actually creating the information and the information is digestible by a much wider audience. So actually, the vast majority of the people that are touched by prediction markets are those that just want the information.
21:57And the folks that are trading and generating that information and doing the work are a minority of the participants. And I think that's what makes it super interesting because the traders are actually creating this ecosystem, which has much broader mass market value and appeal.
22:15Alex Heath:I want to know what Alice thinks about this. I have a lot of things that I love about the idea of prediction markets and some questions. But Ellis, what do you make of this? I have a lot of questions. But first, I'm just so fascinated in this idea of accuracy. Why would they be accurate? I realize the incentives are there, but why are they accurate, would you say, if they're kind of taking the temperature of what people think? Well, it's empirically demonstrated. I think there have been studies put out there that, the accuracy is quite high, even one month before the event closing date. So obviously, as you get closer, the accuracy typically improves.
22:59But what surprised me was, I saw some numbers that 90 % of the time they get it right, even if you look one month before the closing of the event, which frankly surprised me, the degree to which they're accurate. I think that they're accurate for many reasons, probably the most important of which is people are actually putting money on onto, you know, the informed decision and the trade. And so if you're putting money on something, it indicates that you don't just care about it. You're not being flippant. You're not answering a poll. But that's probably the best expression of belief that I can come up with, at least.
Read the full transcript
23:48Alex Heath:My skepticist hat is that I don't know who's on the other side of the trade. If I could see who was making all of these bets, I think I would trust it more. I mean, I trust the results. I mean, you're right. The majority of what I've seen, especially in the context of elections, is they do call it really early. I mean, I remember at Kalshi when I showed up, there was a CBS crew there and they had just called a race and then Kalshi had called it like an hour before. And that's pretty common. And so, you know, you see the results. But at the same time, just my journalist hat is, am I getting like fleeced here somehow?
24:22Alex Heath:Like, is there someone making money on this other side that has information that I don't? because this does feel relatively unregulated, right? There's not like SEC oversight. Is there of insider trading or even a concept of insider trading? Because like as a journalist, I sometimes get non-public material information or report it about companies, right? Like when is the next Gemini model coming, right? There could be a prediction market for that. If I get it confirmed and I report it, I could make a lot of money theoretically. I haven't looked into this. I haven't done it. I'm not saying I would, but I'm just saying it feels like this is a wild west that doesn't have any regulation.
24:58Alex Heath:And I'm wondering how you feel about that. Well, it's not exactly the Wild West. I mean, these are CFTC federally regulated products. It is a new product. So there's a lot of questions that I think as an industry, we have to figure out. But, you know, it's more often compared to sportsbook on the sports side. And I wouldn't say that the sportsbooks haven't exactly figured out either. And there's a lot of advantages to it being brought into a federally regulated realm because we have the machinery to do market surveillance, to do transaction monitoring. I mean, there's lots of stuff that you have to do when you're monitoring securities transactions.
25:44There's pipelines for reporting. So in my opinion, the best companies that are set up to do this are financial services companies or the stakes are so high that we've had to build machinery to monitor transactions and to look out for market integrity over many decades. I was looking through your App Store screenshots, and I believe that the prediction markets for some sports betting is like the very first screenshot at this point. How do you kind of prioritize the product development internally, you know, between something like this and then you've also got these products for like working on your, you know, IRA or something like that.
26:24How do you focus your internal team on where things are heading? So those feel like two pretty different things. Yeah. I mean, those are under sort of separate teams. So it's not an exact tradeoff. I mean, we have to worry about prioritization and tradeoffs on a business level. And that's what I spend a lot of my time thinking about. Just even like the vision for the company. Those feel like different paths conventionally. I would say. Well, the vision for the company is to become your financial super app. And what we mean by that is, you know, for a long time, Robinhood was people's secondary financial account.
27:04Right. But so I would say it probably does fit into the secondary financial account vision, but we don't want to just be your secondary financial account. We want to be your primary and secondary. So we believe that Robinhood can be the place where all of your assets and all of your dollars are held, and we can process all financial transactions. And what we've seen is that as we add new products, a lot of times engagement and usage of our existing products increases. So when we launched retirement, for example, there's a big question internally, about whether retirement was going to cannibalize our trading business.
27:50And the argument makes some sense theoretically, right? Some people have a certain amount of money. If you believe that money is going into Robinhood, and maybe before it was going into the individual brokerage account, now if half of it goes into the retirement account, maybe we would end up hurting ourselves because it would now be going to a place where we would monetize it less. But actually, that didn't end up happening. And what we saw was that the folks that were using retirement actually increased their activity in their individual brokerage accounts. They used us more because it started clicking in their heads that this is now my financial account, right?
28:33I do all of my finances here. We saw a similar effect with the credit card. You know, when someone became a primary gold card user with a credit card, we saw a positive impact to brokerage. And again, same reason. I'm a gold member. I'm doing everything with Robinhood. Let me look around and see if my gold membership actually gets me any other benefits. And if those other products are good, I'll give Robinhood a fair shake and probably first shot at my business. I think when you've spent as long and as much time as you have on trying to build trust as you built all these things over time, I think it makes a lot of sense that that aggregate value would be increased.
29:17The customer's consideration for each new product would be higher than it would have been had it would have been a separate app. But I saw an ad today in the Wall Street Journal that said, if you're looking for a broker that's not also your bookie, we invite you to try public. A different perspective on maybe some of the conflicts from the producer of this product point of view. Do you have any response to that? Yeah, that's a funny one. One of the differences between traditional sports betting and prediction markets is that the trades are happening on an exchange with buyers and sellers. And so there's no house that is incentivized to have customers lose.
29:57Right. So that's sort of the retort to the specific bookie comment. The other thing is a lot of these brokers, you have to understand there's a competitive marketplace here and not everyone can match our product velocity and how we serve our customers. And obviously the business has been going very well, not just prediction markets, but, you know, last quarter we had record net deposits into the platform. retirement accounts have just been on a huge influx of assets 25 billion plus gold card had half a million plus cardholders so so the ecosystem as a whole is very very strong now prediction markets uh are the fastest growing business we've ever had um and i think we've seen these criticism before but what's happening under the hood is our competitors are working as hard as possible to like replicate this.
30:55I mean, I think that company was making a lot of hay about how retail shouldn't be trading options and they were kind of against it. And then of course - Until they launched it. Until they launched options trading. Classic comms tactic. And now they're incentivizing by giving you contract rebates and things like that. So I think this is just people have their interests. If I was in their position, I probably try to have some kind of media strategy that stems the tide and prevents them from losing customers. And I do think there's a legitimate, like some customers just don't like to see it. And some customers don't like all the products we offer.
31:48So there's a legitimate challenge that we have as we add more products. How do we make the experience cohesive and how do we make sure that we only show to customers what they want to see? And I think that's going to push us towards solving some really interesting challenges with, you know, personalization and machine learning and making sure that actually your Robinhood experience is what you want it to be. And we're giving you the products that, you know, you're most suitable for and that you want to engage with. And I think we're in the early days of that. There's a lot more to do there.
32:26Alex Heath:I think on the last earnings, you said that the prediction business in October was bigger for you all than the whole last quarter combined. It had been doubling quarter over quarter. So what is driving this? Is it mostly sports? Is this just speed running all the sports betting companies? Or what is it really fundamentally? I mean, sports is a big chunk of it for sure. but we're also seeing engagement across in non-sports categories. For a while, our prediction markets business was like sports only. And we recently started rolling out to other categories like economics, technology, politics. Now we have over a thousand contracts.
33:07And one of the things we believe is that the non-sports landscape is going to evolve very, very rapidly. And there's really interesting things that you'll be able to do that haven't been built yet. But yeah, sports has been a huge driver. Also, anytime we roll out a new product, it takes time for customers to understand it. A lot of people have never heard of prediction markets. It's a little bit more technical and arcane. And the dynamics are different than than what they're used to with traditional sports books. So as they become familiar with it, as there's more events that they hear about, as we get a little bit better at incorporating it and integrating it into the product experience, which I think there's a lot of room for us to improve even further, we see growth.
33:59And I think there's tailwinds as well. I don't think that there's so many ways we can continue to improve it and make it more useful and better.
34:09Alex Heath:Look at you. You're a veteran public CEO already. Tailwinds. You got all the words. I love the word tailwinds, actually. I think I picked that up from my CFO. It's like a romantic. It's like you're a sailor out at sea, you know? Yeah. Any particular contracts you hope to see personally in the near future? I'm really interested in contracts that are more personalized. and what I mean by that is not that you know you'll be trading a contract on Alex's status or whatnot but really that you know let's say you were concerned about flood or fire risk in your primary residence I mean maybe you submit some information about yourself to a transparent market and you get a real-time price for market makers.
34:59And I think you can imagine that that could be disruptive to the insurance industry, right? Like there's no reason why I have to pick up the phone and, you know, have these giant companies pricing my risk in a opaque way when, you know, the entire financial market with all of its liquidity and everyone plugged in can, can kind of do that.
35:23Alex Heath:I mean, regulators are going to come crashing in on this if it gets to that level, don't you think? Well, I think you already see it with weather contracts, precipitation. You have it sort of in a generalized sense. There's fire contracts, wildlife. That's the whole purpose. That's how this industry started, right, is people hedging their risk. Now, why does it have to be only available to farmers and people running large institutions when individuals would like to have certain risks that they're legally required to hedge in some cases. And so, yeah, not to say that there's not going to be stakeholders that are going to fight prediction markets.
36:06You're already seeing it. But I think the power and the efficiency is just undeniable.
36:15Alex Heath:What you were saying about farmers and, you know, hedge funds and stuff having access to this already made me think about, I wonder if this is something you have felt leading the company is you often get criticized, I think, for, you know, quote unquote gamification or bringing these things to the masses that potentially have negative externalities or could get people, you know, down a bad path if they get too levered or whatever. And then frequently, I think the other side of it that I hear from you and others is also, well, look like This was already available, but it was for a select few. And so it seems like the mission you've had since the beginning is democratizing.
36:52Alex Heath:I mean, I know that was the thing that you would say, but the prediction market's idea is, I think, taking what, yeah, farmers, hedge funds, what they already do, and bring it to everyone. And that is disruption in the classic sense. And it has positives and negatives to it. No, I mean, I'm sure you're also thinking about like, yeah, there are going to be unforeseen externalities of this at scale. Right. Yeah. And by the way, there's no leverage in our prediction markets currently. So they're fully cash collateralized. It's a longstanding criticism of every financial market that they're speculators.
37:28But I think, I mean, when you look at the futures markets, when they became accessible to retail several decades ago, it was the same thing. You know, people were trading grain and oil and orange juice futures and pork bellies. And, you know, there were speculators in there and a lot of people had concerns about that. Every financial market had speculation. But I think the thing most people don't understand is speculation is actually an important part about it's necessary for the functioning of these markets. You can't just have people hedging. You can't just have arbitrage. Even if you read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, one of the seminal books of value investing, he talks about how speculation is actually integral to the proper functioning.
38:22So I don't think we can get rid of it. Now, I don't think everyone should be speculating and certainly not with a huge chunk of their capital, but we believe in markets. And so I think this activity is actually crucial to the proper functioning of all of the markets.
38:39Alex Heath:Would you ever bake that idea into the products where Robinhood says, hey, like, you can do this, but just FYI, you're about to put 40 % of your portfolio in something that's a little YOLO. Like, could you guide people more that way? We actually do a little bit. I mean, for example, when you have a leveraged ETF or, you know, a similar high risk instrument, we let people know, you know, that this is something that's, that's leveraged. It's not for long-term holding. We also, you know, indicate if something's like gotten to a point of, of large volatility, like we, we give those little alerts. If a company is bankrupt, you know, or has filed bankruptcy.
39:26So there's examples where we definitely let customers know. I think it's also a delicate balance because if you're an active trader and you know what you're doing, we don't want to put so many frictions in your way because then you'll just get annoyed and start, you know, using the products of our competitors that don't do those things. You know, the state of Massachusetts was like historically very protectionist about this stuff. So I don't know if you guys remember, there's a story about how they banned their citizens from participating in the Apple IPO in the 80s. You know, at the time it was like, oh, this is risky, most people shouldn't be.
40:08And I think in general it was from a good place. But then imagine multiple decades later, this is like an example of, it's sort of a negative example of nanny statism gone completely wrong. I mean, you've prevented people from like exercising their point of view and in hindsight making a lot of money. Yeah, I think that's true. But I also feel like there's a big difference between like an outright ban and like those commercials you see on TV that say we're going to give you$500 for free if you bet five that know that when someone shows up, they're probably going to lose it because that's the only way that they can make that offer.
40:47You know, how do you think about that stuff when you see it on TV or maybe even when PMs come to you with ideas that you know would work but might feel a little icky? I think we're generally pretty conservative about those things. I mean, obviously, there's always a gray area where there's discussions, but we benefit. I mean, if you look at Robinhood as a business, our revenue scales with assets under custody. And so the healthy customer relationship for us is someone whose account balance monotonically increases over time. So, you know, it doesn't bother us if you're allocating some of your portfolio and you're trading options, you're trading futures, you're trading prediction markets.
41:36But we're actually quite aligned with our users in the sense that we benefit as their account balances grow and their relationship deepens with us. And that's kind of how we've been successful. If you look at asset growth on the platform over time, it's not a churn and burn business where people put money in and then their account goes to zero. This is a compounding asset business. I'm just, I'm a product person. I'm just so fascinated by, you know, this kind of conceptual idea that maybe you bring some money into a product and there's two buttons there. One is to put it in retirement and one is to put it on the Packers.
42:16You know, if times were ever tough, you could see a world where someone comes and says, hey, let's make the Packers button a little shinier or a little bigger or make it number one in the rankings. And that's what I think brings some interesting decisions being a platform that includes both. so yeah your job is not an easy one yeah and i think that historically um it's been very difficult for a regulated business to actually uh make recommendations at that level right because the areas where you could make recommendations are pretty circumscribed you know there are all kinds of things govern making a recommendation to open a new account or how much money you should invest in a certain thing.
43:02And our solution to that is not to get away from it. We make recommendations, but they have to be in specific areas where we make it clear that, yeah, we're telling you we have a fiduciary duty. We think that, you know, you should invest in this.
43:20Kara Swisher:Hi, I'm Brene Brown. And I'm Adam Grant. And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop. A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning. It's going to be fun. We rarely agree. But we almost never disagree. And we're always learning. That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday. In 1984, Apple launched maybe the most consequential computer ever. It was not a good computer, particularly. There was actually a lot wrong with it. But the Macintosh had all of the right ideas about what computers would become, and it kind of changed everything.
44:03This week on Version History, our chat show about the best and worst and most interesting products in tech history, we're telling the story of the Macintosh and why, again, despite not being very good, it managed to change everything anyway. That's Version History on YouTube and wherever you get podcasts.
44:22Alex Heath:Another thing I know you're thinking a lot about is tokenization. and I know this is a big priority. You've tokenized, quote unquote, a lot of companies so far. You want to do more. As someone who is even, you know, versed in these topics, it's a little heady for me to understand why the world needs this. And I know you're, you know, crypto is a big thing for Robinhood. It's a huge business. This has, you know, synergy with that. But explain it to me like I'm a middle schooler. Like, why in the world are you trying to tokenize companies? Yeah, on public companies outside the U.S., it's quite difficult to get access to public companies.
45:02A lot of people don't have a traditional broker that's available in their country, but they do have crypto firms. So crypto firms have become the gateway to get access to U.S. dollars. I think in the same way, tokenized stocks will become the gateway to U.S. assets. There might not be a local broker that is low cost, but if you get the stocks on the blockchain, you get certain benefits like 24-7, instant settlement, better economics on stock loan and borrow. But the main thing outside the U.S. is actually just access. Now, within the U.S., it's a little bit more incremental. And so I think adoption will be slower.
45:45I think tokenization of public stocks will be an ex-US phenomenon first, as we've demonstrated. I mean, we've gone live with it, ex-US, right? But in the US, it's a little bit more incremental. You're going from 24-5 trading, which we offer, to 24-7. You've got instant settlement, which means that a GameStop situation can never happen again. Oh, thank God. That's a nice benefit for me, maybe less so for most people. I think stock loan and borrow could be disrupted. It's a very opaque lending and borrowing market for shares that I think could be improved. And you have some benefits of portability and self-custody, which, and this is maybe slightly contrary interest to say, but you can make it so that your stocks can just easily leave your brokerage.
46:36You're not going to be dependent on a broker. you can transact and trade tokenized stocks as long as the blockchain is up. So private companies are a different story. Very hard to get access to even in the US. And there's problems because even if you're accredited and you want to transact in private shares, your options for doing that in a simple and easy way are pretty manual. And the alternative trading systems that exist that try to provide real-time matching generally don't have very much liquidity. So you could be waiting quite a while before you could make a trade. And when you do make that trade, it's kind of a manual process where you're sending DocuSigns to people if you guys have done that.
47:26Alex Heath:Not a ton of liquidity in the secondary market unless it's like a really hot name. Yeah, but if you plug it into crypto technology, and I wrote a piece on this in the Washington Post a little bit under a year ago, you solve the liquidity problem because you're plugging this into a network, a global network where, you know, you've seen meme coins get billions of dollars of liquidity within a few hours. And I think blockchains have shown that they've been very effective at directing and aggregating liquidity to assets that people actually want. So you don't have to build a whole exchange from the ground up.
48:04You can leverage the existing usage and liquidity on crypto.
48:09Alex Heath:That makes sense. But I've heard you also say that there's this digital nimbyism going on with companies to this idea when you go to them and you're like, let me put your stock on the blockchain. They're not huge fans. You first, I think, pitched this with OpenAI and SpaceX. I don't think they took to it too well. Do you find that you're still meeting a lot of resistance here, or are you optimistic? Where are you at now? I think eventually it'll happen, and we're looking to accelerate it. But, I mean, we know which way this is going to go. It's very, very clear. We have a product, IPO Access, which we launched for our own IPO in 2021.
48:47and our own IPO was for its size, the largest retail allocation at the time at, you know, north of 20%. And we had some other companies use it as well who are willing to go on the journey with us. But by and large in 2021, when I had this product, it took a lot of cajoling and a lot of just like asking for favors to make sure retail gets access to these IPOs. When we would get the allocations, they were pretty small. It was like, okay, we'll do Vlad a favor. We'll give him 1 % of the IPO, 2%, whatever. But there was skepticism. Executives were hearing from their bankers that it was a bit of a strange thing.
49:33And if you're an executive taking your company public, most of the time, it's just, let me get through this so I can focus on my business. I don't necessarily want to be an innovator in providing retail access to these instruments. But I do want to be an innovator in that. So I worked very hard and I pounded the pavement. We got a good IPO suite. And then the market basically shut for a couple of years. And an interesting thing happened in the interim. I think it became more obvious to the public. It had been obvious to me for a long time, but more obvious to the entire startup community that public companies that have retail fan bases and followings get rewarded.
50:20In some cases, we're pretty, pretty high multiples, right? You see Palantir, you see some others. And now when the IPO window opened, basically everyone's coming to us and asking us if they could have feedback on their retail strategy. How can they engage retail more? and a large number of the IPOs that have been on consequence have come to us and actually listed on the platform and in some cases given retail bigger and bigger chunks. And now they're talking about it. So I think the same thing is going to happen with private markets as well. We're kind of in the phase where it's a new thing. We're kind of the only ones that are trying to do it.
50:58Nobody really wants to innovate when they're raising a financing ground, but the setup is very similar to IPO access. Like it's the same set of constraints. And my prediction is within the next two years, it'll probably be faster than IPO access, probably even one year, it'll be normalized and you'll have the best companies available to retail because they'll just see that having that retail fan base and the supporters as early as possible is going to be immensely valuable. You look at AI in particular, where are the fans? I mean, it's a very popular technology. Adoption is very, very quick, but who's defending the AI companies in public?
51:45It's basically their investors and like the community of AI researchers. And the general perception, I would say, if you're looking at, you know, what's happening in the media and even in public discourse, there's a lot of fear and uncertainty. And it leans negative. I think there was an article talking about how this is like, at the same time, the fastest adopted technology, but also the least popular, right? And I don't think that's a healthy combination because I think that if the public is against AI, it's going to be a headwind, not a tailwind for the industry and for innovation. And I think the best way is to get people owning this stuff and not just have it go to the high net worth individuals and the institutions, but get it distributed to regular people.
52:40I think it will be good for the technology. And I think my opinion will at some point hopefully be a little bit more widespread. You're working on a lot of things right now. I saw you launch 10 new product suites in 2025. Five. Curious how you're running the company differently now than previously. I feel like I heard that you don't have any one on ones. You have over 20 direct reports. How do you think about all that? I've got a great, great GMs, a great team, the core Robinhood team, the people that are running the company, making decisions. A lot of them have been around for for a long time and gone through our share of crises together.
53:22Right. Not just GameStop, but also the IPO and the subsequent market correction, you know, the crypto market and the SVB crisis. So we've gone through some ups and downs and I think. Yeah. How's your blood pressure? That's a lot of crises right there. I stopped tracking it, you know, for a while I was very, I don't know if you guys felt the same. I was wearing my Apple watch and I was thinking about all this health stuff and now I've gone very mechanical. I'm like, I don't want to see it. Yeah. I kind of know when I haven't slept well, so I don't, I don't need the device. I'm becoming more of a Luddite as we keep rolling out more business lines.
54:07But yeah, that's really the short of it. I think I have a great team around me. I think we're working well together. Culture is something you evolve over time when you make mistakes and you fix them. And I think we iterate pretty quickly. I think you have to, but we're sort of not apologetic about being a company that wants to move fast and actually innovate.
54:31Alex Heath:Yeah, you've seen some crazy lows, and it feels like right now you're at this insane high. I think you're the second top-performing stock this year. You're on this product tear. I know. I wish we did the interview a week ago. When you were the top? Well, there's still weeks left in the year. But do those lows... Let's recheck it. It might have changed today. I don't know. We'll recheck it. But also on the last earnings call, I caught the joke about you had like a CO award that kicked in because of the stock gains. And I think your salary is going back to like 40K or something. Is that right? Yeah, pretty much.
55:07I think this was not a lot of people caught this, but I had some grants back in 2019. We were a private company that had share price targets of around$50 and$100. And, you know, a year ago, the stock was trading at, I think, in the 20s. And then, of course, with the tariffs, it dipped back down. So I don't think that we had forecasted all of those rewards hitting, but here we are. There you are. So that was the cause for our miss on tax expense and employee bonus accrual.
55:42Alex Heath:What's your bonus? Okay, cool. How do you keep yourself grounded in a moment like this, especially when you're going into next year? You are full on founder mode. And I'm sure your board trusts you immensely after this year, not that they didn't before. But how do you ground yourself and keep looking around the corner for what could disrupt you, so to speak? Look, we have to remind ourselves to not get complacent. I try to remind our employees of that as well. And I'm saying it to the employees as much as I'm saying it to myself, right? Like, I know inevitably I've been through so many of these cycles.
56:20There's going to be a time in the future where everyone thinks we're shitheads again. Um, uh, hopefully less acute than times before. And generally I believe the trend will be up, but you know, it's, it's always cyclical to some degree. And, um, that's just what we sign up for.
56:38Alex Heath:Who didn't want to talk to you before? Who wants to talk to you now? Let's name some names. I mean, honestly, I don't know. Nope. I didn't get too many podcast invites, uh, back in 2020. That's fair. That's fair. Well, we're glad to have you on. We met over a year ago. I don't remember where the stock price was, but it was early on in the predictions markets thing. It was before the U.S. really opened up. Before the election. Yeah, before that. And you were talking to me about it in the context of the media and how you were thinking about the media because you have a media arm. You're doing a social network now.
57:10Alex Heath:And I hadn't really heard of it that way. um and actually yeah we should we should actually just go to that the the social network thing i think ellis and i are both fascinated by me as someone well we both covered social networks and then ellis worked at one um but you're you're rolling this out it's not fully out but uh are you are you really taking on finance twitter here is this is this the goal you're gonna go go toe to toe with elon on this i mean maybe uh it's not the way we think of it but the um i think we have certain advantages. We have a highly engaged customer base that's rather large.
57:46We have the ability to build great technology. I mean, you might have seen where we've been live streaming our product events and our earnings with live video in the app. And we've been able to include interactivity as well. So we can run polls and different sort of like UI elements. I thought you were going to say the users could slime you or something if they felt like it.
58:12Alex Heath:Next earnings. If they felt like it was too boring, yeah. We should add that. But Opendoor last week actually live streamed their own earnings in our app. So we've been working on building this earnings information and data ecosystem. You can ask shareholder Q &A. And I think the interesting opportunity for us is actually becoming the place where the ideas are generated and shared. And can we be the first place where you actually post something interesting that has like financial or business or economic content? And I think the advantage that we have is because we're going to be where the social network is and the transaction, we can solve the verification problem to make sure people aren't faking their trades and posting inaccurate information.
59:07And the more assets we add, so now with prediction markets and options and futures and equities, you can imagine the stronger kind of that network effect would be. Like you could actually get diverse content. It's interesting. Lots of opinions. And can we become the place where you actually post first? I think that's going to be the challenge. But if we get that, I think it could be the best source of business and financial content out there.
59:37Alex Heath:You know if this works, you are going to get the call from Elon and he's going to go, what the hell are you doing? You know that's coming. I don't know that that's the case necessarily. And I think to some degree, a lot of the big social media products are looking to add finance in there. So, you know, rather than us just sitting around and getting disrupted, can we try to figure out what the best way is to integrate that into one experience? It's definitely a compelling package with social 24-7 markets. I think I saw the top replies to one of your tweets about, you know, these kind of always on markets idea was a bunch of memes of people looking very tired, like I'm tired, boss.
1:00:21You know, we all know this is fun, but it's also addictive. I mean, I don't even bet any money on fantasy sports, but I had to stop because every single time I was on the toilet or up late at night and couldn't sleep, I'm looking at it. I wonder what advice do you give to young people today to kind of come up with these new norms and modulate that behavior? Because it is fun. You feel like there's always more to learn, whether it's with stocks or the prediction markets. Yeah, I think it's very, very tough for a young person now when you have so much, you're bombarded by digital stimulus. And, you know, I recognize that I have a mobile app that people use, but I actually legitimately don't think, I mean, if my kids spent more time investing and learning how to trade on Robinhood, I don't think I would feel as bad because, you know, it's just, there's social media, there's YouTube, there's Minecraft.
1:01:23And better than shrimp Jesus, doom scroll, what we're saying? Yeah, I just think that it is a problem and it's something that I worry about and I'd like to contribute to making it better for sure and eventually scale that. But yeah, if I had to think about like one personal cause that I legitimately really am worried about, it's just like digital addiction. So I don't have all the answers.
1:01:55Alex Heath:Yeah, you said as Robin Hood scales, you find yourself wanting to be more of a Luddite. I mean, that's interesting, right? A lot of the founders who run these digital products and these platforms, you talk to them and it's like you get drained yourself, right? It's a lot. Yeah, I think it's unnatural to be in front of a screen for so much of your life. And, you know, when the smartphone came out, it was just the superpower, right? The people that were good at using smartphones, I think, had an advantage. But now, you know, we're spending so much of our time on smartphones that it's become a tax.
1:02:25It's almost like, you know, if the person next to you is using it more, you're at a disadvantage. and I think it's unfortunate that technology kind of evolves in that direction.
1:02:39Alex Heath:Well, maybe we can end it here. You're live streaming your earnings. You just did it at the Chase Center. I imagine these will get more ornate each earnings. I'm expecting more spectacle. Are we going to get a pre-earnings walk-in where you've got the designer bag, the jacket, the shades? Final Countdown is playing. Yeah, final countdown's playing. Is that coming, or are we just going to do post-game? You know, the inspiration for earnings was an NBA post-game interview, where we thought to ourselves, okay, after, let's say, the analogy is like game three of the NBA finals. It's not over. It's not game seven.
1:03:20It's actually, you're somewhere near the beginning of the series. But if you have a good quarter, It's sort of like interviewing LeBron after the Lakers win. He's got a little bit of swagger. You know, he's thanking his teammates. He's looking good. Maybe he's wearing his shades. If the Lakers lose and you're interviewing LeBron, he's got the towel on his head. Maybe he throws some shade on his teammates. But it's informative and entertaining either way. So if they could make it so that an NBA postgame interview is worth watching, we should be able to make earnings worth watching as well. I mean, it's not easy, is it?
1:04:00It's like, how much can you really say that you aren't prepared to say? Well, I mean, we've been able to do quite a lot. Turns out quite a lot. And it's been baby steps. We went on video. And now I'm at the point where if I'm reading a script, it's hard for me to not sound robotic. It's hard enough even without a script, to be honest. Um, so I, I operate best when I just have like, uh, an idea of what I want to talk about, but, but the rest of it is kind of extemporaneous in a sense. So I think we've been able to make it more engaging while, while still obviously providing the necessary information and communicating the results well.
1:04:39And hopefully it leads to an investing public that's more informed because they're actually watching and listening to the earnings calls. and I think in order to do that we have to make them a little bit more engaging. It's a nice microcosm of the Robinhood product strategy as well. It's like, you know, yeah, if people are more interested in this stuff they'll engage with it more and I think in the same way if people are more interested in their finances they'll engage with their finances more and you'll get great outcomes as a result.
1:05:09Alex Heath:Well, next time if you walk out with the shades on in the pre-game walkout we'll know that it was a good quarter, right? that's good well i've tried the shades thing actually if you saw my france event um oh yeah i wore shades now there was a debate about this and you know the the folks that i was working were like don't do the shades if people can't see your eyes it's untrustworthy and they're not gonna like it and the funny thing was after that event if you see the twitter photos the ones where i'm wearing shades people are like oh he looks like a scammer and then you know the ones without the shades were were flying so okay that's bad advice i learned that it's actually true yeah shades are no good shades are no good vlad really appreciate this thanks so much yeah always a pleasure thanks to vlad for coming on the show we're new here so please follow like subscribe you know what to do on all your favorite platforms of choice at access pod including youtube where we have full video of the show and time code so you could jump around.
1:06:14Alex Heath:If you like this episode, please leave a five-star review or thumbs up and share it with a friend. It means a lot. You can find me at Hamburger on Twitter and at Meaning.Company. You can find my newsletter at Sources.News. Access is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Our producer is Shiraz Dume. See you next week. Bye. You always got to do the bye, don't you?
1:06:43Kara Swisher:Thanks for listening to this special episode of Access. Happy New Year. We'll be back with a new episode of On on Monday.
From the publisher
Happy 2026 from all of us at On with Kara Swisher! We’re ringing in the new year with an episode of ACCESS, a new tech insider podcast from the Vox Media Podcast Network that’s hosted by two highly connected tech journalists, Alex Heath and Ellis Hamburger. Each week, Alex and Ellis have revealing conversations with Silicon Valley’s most influential leaders, from the tech titans of today to tomorrow’s most interesting entrepreneurs.
On this episode of ACCESS, they speak to Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev to discuss the rise of prediction markets, juggling priorities as a public CEO, and much more.
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