The Cyberattack We’re Not Ready For

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23:43Kara Swisher:Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com.

23:54Kara Swisher:Let's talk about China and its rise in cyber dominance. You mentioned them earlier. For at least the last decade, China has targeted U.S. telecom companies, notably the expansive the salt typhoon attacks. China-backed hackers have also infiltrated critical infrastructure, including water transport and grid networks. You've talked about this being the era of, quote, mutually assured digital destruction. But it sounds like China's gaining advantage in cyber dominance. Talk a little bit about the case. This is the argument, of course, all of Silicon Valley is making. And others say, no, it's not as much.

24:25Kara Swisher:But give me your assessment of where we are and if they have the upper hand. And if so, what are the consequences? When I first started covering Chinese cyber attacks against the New York Times, for instance, a decade ago, it was brazen, but it was phishing. You know, it was loud, but it was successful. You know, some people called them the most polite hackers in cyber because they'd almost announced their presence. As we started outing some of these campaigns, they really went underground. And I think really the up-leveling moment was when they started using their authoritarianism to their advantage.

25:00They basically created a series of new laws that said, hey, if you find a vulnerability, you have to give the state right of first refusal. And all these Chinese hackers that I used to see at the big hacking competitions that would show how to hack into a Tesla or an iPhone or Android stopped showing up on state's orders pretty much. All that knowledge, all that skill started funneling directly to the state. And we started seeing some really significant up-leveling and sophistication in some of these Chinese operations, like Salt Typhoon. Chinese state operations. Exactly. And these are much harder to defend against.

25:43We started seeing them come for security devices. We started seeing them find zero days, vulnerabilities no one knew about, using those in the course of their operations. And we're catching them in not only our back-end telecom infrastructure, but in these critical entities like water and power.

26:03Kara Swisher:But their capabilities, you know, U.S. and China are locked in this global AI arms race that has experts on both sides concerned if the two nations fail to cooperate, right? Obviously, Anthropoc and OpenA are accusing China of copying their AI systems through distillation. And the Trump-Xi summit in May ended without any meaningful agreements on AI. I mean, the biggest argument from Silicon Valley is we must do all these things without any regulations in order to fight the Chinese. Most people that I think are intelligent say we've got to cooperate with them in some way. But is there a realistic chance of cooperation between the U.S.

26:38Kara Swisher:and China on AI? Should it happen? And what do you make of the arguments of people, you know, in Silicon Valley are like, you know, it's the Xi or me argument kind of thing that they try to pull? You know, we are locked in this very dangerous game of chicken. And I wish that we had an entirely new generation of technological diplomats that could sit down with Xi and say, hey, you know, none of us want the world that we're crashing towards. But I am close to people who've had similar conversations with China on hacking for years, on fentanyl, more recently on Volt Typhoon, these hacks of our critical infrastructure.

27:26At one point, one of the people I interviewed last season when we were focused on China said they were tasked by the Biden administration to go to China and propose that we set up red lines just around hacking water treatment facilities, water systems, civilian water systems. And their counterparts in China said no. So I don't know if it has changed now that we are slightly ahead on AI, but for how long are we ahead? I think that the decision to release DeepSeek as an open-weight model was intentional. they really want to be the backbone of AI and AI infrastructure. And there's a really interesting report that came out last week that the New York Times covered from a startup called Aletheia, where they looked at some of the disinformation campaigns coming out of Russia and China right now.

28:22And they are latching onto data centers as an American culture war. I think in part in China's case, China wants to basically play up some of the fights around nimbyism and environmental concerns and all of the legitimate concerns we have around data centers in terms of water use, energy use, contamination. They want to use that as a wedge issue so that we don't have the data center infrastructure in the United States that they own that.

28:49Kara Swisher:Well, it's going into space, Nicole. That's right. That's right. Yeah. I can't wait for that one. I got to say, I'm with Sam Altman on this one. But anyway, at this moment in time, All I'm saying is I wish we were living in a different world where we could actually sit down with them and have these conversations. And I think hopefully we will once the attacks start coming. But right now I am sort of the, you know, ye of little faith on this issue. Every episode we get a question from an outside expert here is yours. Hi, Nicole. Your friend Dimitri Alperovic here, co-founder of CrowdStrike and now chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator.

29:26Kara Swisher:As you know, I spent a good chunk of my career putting names and faces on the hackers behind cyber attacks, because I believe that naming and shaming them would deter them and mobilize collective government actions against them. From where you sit, do you think that public attribution of cyber intrusions is still important, or have we become so accustomed and numb to it that it no longer serves any purpose? Thank you. Love, Dimitri. You know, the naming and shaming, I thought, had a big effect. And in some ways it did. We actually saw China go quiet. The Obama administration reached an unprecedented deal with China for a while that we would cease, well, really, they would cease hacking for intellectual property and trade secrets.

30:11And we saw those drop off for about a period of 18 months. But that was during the Obama administration. In came Trump, kind of tossed the tables over, and we saw that resume. And when it resumed, it resumed in a much more sophisticated, well-organized, stealthy way. And so in retrospect, all of that naming and shaming that made them stop actually, I think, just sent them further underground. So there is, you know, a legitimate question to say, what is the long term benefit really of calling out these operations? I think we have to, you know, I think the fact that China is pre positioning itself in some of our most critical infrastructure is worthy of almost daily national press coverage, and it hasn't gotten that, which is why I'm doing this podcast.

31:01in the first place. I've just decided, okay, I'm going to focus on these issues that I think are super important, but are not getting that kind of mainstream coverage. China's hacking of critical infrastructure being one of them. I mean, I think it would be a bizarre world if we were catching these Chinese nation state hackers inside our civilian water systems. And for whatever reason, saying, oh, it's just not worth attributing it to China. But Dimitri has a great point, which is we are sort of becoming numb to this. And there's been so little action and there is really no deterrence.

31:38Kara Swisher:You mentioned mythos at the beginning. Let's talk about Anthropic and its ongoing tensions with the US government. Talk about how AI has transformed cybersecurity. This is something you had written about. It's for Stuxnet and everything else. So talk about how it's transformed for both offensive and defensive purposes. AI in the beginning, you know, it's a really useful social engineering tool. Find me a useful target, craft a message in perfect English. In some cases, create an audio deepfake of someone's voice that this person legitimately knows, like a CFO of a major enterprise, and ask them to basically ask someone in their accounting department to make a wire transfer.

32:17All of those things are things that we are seeing. And we are seeing video deepfakes too. We're seeing North Koreans use deepfakes in some of these interviews. Now we're entering a new phase, which is AI is giving hackers this tremendous advantage to pull off everything I just mentioned at scale. It's also giving them the skills that they previously didn't have, that previously were just the purview of these tier one nation states like NSA, you know, U.S. is NSA and GCHQ, Israel, China, perhaps, Russia, perhaps. It's throwing those skills in the laps of cyber criminals, of these tier three nation states like North Korea, like Iran.

33:04And I think we are about to enter what is truly the everything, everywhere, all at once cyber scenario, which is anyone who has any interest in hacking you will now have the tools to do so, whether that is me pissing off North Korea because of a podcast or Sony putting out a movie or anyone that just has some dark interest in watching the world burn will now have these capabilities. And all of them will come at us at machine speed. So on offense, I think it's very clear that AI will give the bad guys the advantage, the offensive advantage. The hope is, though, that AI will also help us defensively to do the things that we with our puny human minds were never able to do before, like write secure code, handle configuration, ensure that we have multi-factor authentication turned on at scale, make sure that our vendors at least interrogate our vendors to make sure that they're not our biggest weak points.

34:09These are things where AI could create tremendous up-leveling on defense. I think it's just a question of what is the delta between where we are now.

34:19Kara Swisher:And of course, there's this infighting. To me, a lot of what has been happening with the Trump administration is an inside Silicon Valley beef. But Anthropic initially released its mythos modeled in April to a limited group of companies for cybersecurity testing last month. The Trump administration abruptly banned the foreign use of Anthropic's two most powerful models, mythos and fable five. Just over two weeks ago, the Trump administration and Anthropic reached agreements to restore access. Talk a little bit of what's happening here, what's happening internally, because a little bit is, again, this beefing among Silicon Valley rivals, really.

34:53Kara Swisher:And an example of that is Anthropic suing the Trump administration after the Pentagon declared it a supply chain risk. I think that was Emile Michaels doing. He's the undersecretary for research and engineering. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodi went back and forth for months with Emile over safety guardrails and the Pentagon's use of AI. Emil famously was fired from Uber for a bunch of nefarious actions that he has denied. Talk about what's happening here overall and how does it end with the Pentagon, with the White House and everybody else? Well, I think it's fair to call this a giant shit show. I don't dispute anything you just said that I think it comes down to beefing and who's kissed the ring and who hasn't adequately kissed the ring.

35:36but man, we have real supply chain risks in the United States, many of which I've called out in my reporting. TPLink routers were one, DeepSeek is one. These are the real supply chain risks. So I think it says a lot that this administration went for Anthropic, I think because of these conversations between Pete Hegseth, who I went to college with, and Dario. Oh, wow, how was that? over. I think they both actually spent some time at my alma mater. Anyway, no, Pete Hexeth, he was famous when we were in college for being part of this right wing organization that put out this magazine with an owl on the cover in crosshairs and owl stood for organization of women leaders.

36:26So he's always sort of been like this. He's been a charmer for a long time. Yeah. Yeah. Anywho, I think this is why, and you've covered this brilliantly, this is why we saw Tim Cook show up with the golden statue. We saw everyone and their wives and mothers show up to the White House for the inauguration. This is what they're hoping to avoid. and in this case apparently Dario didn't play the game and they are where they are now you know it's amazing to me to have watched Anthropic do what I think was the responsible action to withhold this model once it saw what its cyber exploitation capabilities were and then to watch David Sachs sort of disparage it on Twitter and I think either in an interview with Politico where he said this is all marketing, essentially.

37:23He was our AI czar. He's no longer our AI czar. But I had the same questions. How much of this is real? How much this is marketing, which is why I went and interviewed Nicholas Carlini, the red teamer at Anthropic. If you listen to that interview, it's clear this guy doesn't have a marketing bone in his body. He's truly just a hacker's hacker who was testing the models to see what they're capable of and came away wide-eyed at what these models can do. And I think Anthropic did the right thing. Now, coming back to the previous question on offense and defense, the best thing we can do defensively in this moment is take Mythos, take Fable, take every model from every major frontier lab, test its exploitation capabilities.

38:07Including the new chat GPT, correct?

38:09Kara Swisher:There's a new one. Exactly. And Gemini. All of these models now have these capabilities, and soon again, the open weight models will too. And our best defense is to take them, aim them at ourselves, and see where we are vulnerable and move very quickly to eliminate those inroads and kill paths. And so when you pull Mythos or when you prevent our closest allies from having access to those models, from being able to essentially pen test themselves with these models, test where they're weakest, it's a big deal because this is our greatest hope right now in terms of cyber defense, that we can use these models to test ourselves.

38:51And my understanding is that, you know, Mythos may still have the best cyber exploitation capabilities, but these other models are not far behind. And I don't know what the long-term play here is.

39:04Kara Swisher:They're not far behind. They're not far behind. Now, just for people to know, David Sachs, when he was repeatedly warned that any sort of AI regulation could cost the U.S. in its lead race against China, he's accused Anthropik of, quote, running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear mongering. And this is what's influencing the Trump administration, this frenzied approach to lack of AI regulation in any way, or cooperation, which is more what you're saying here. Yeah, that's right. And I think Anthropic has sort of done a good job doing some quiet education around some of these issues with the administration.

39:40Maybe that's why they backed off. But I think the big issue here is that, again, we're entering a new era. You know, I wrote a book, it took me seven years, about the humans and what it takes to find these zero-day exploit capabilities, these vulnerabilities that only they could find. And the market that existed from governments to buy these from these hackers and use them in their offensive operations. And these were the best of the best.

40:08Kara Swisher:This book was This Is How They Tell Me The World Ends, correct? Yes, This Is How They Tell Me The World Ends. And in retrospect, what that book was about was about scarcity. It was about the few people who could find these vulnerabilities and then create the code to exploit them in systems like our iOS, iPhone operating system so that they could basically turn these things into ankle bracelets. If you had asked me, hey, write a sequel and you can make it fiction, make it science fiction. What is the nightmare next chapter of this thing? I would have written a book that didn't look that different from the era we are entering right now, where AI can essentially find these vulnerabilities that, again, were just the purview of these advanced hackers and nation states and turn them on anyone they choose.

40:56And that's the era we're walking into. And we can't do this, like, game. Yeah.

41:01Kara Swisher:China just said that it's ZAI already matched mythos and cybersecurity. And then, of course, all the others will match what Mithos can do relatively quickly. Right. These are all sort of like momentary delays towards the inevitable. Yeah, they just were the first to get there to say, oh, dear, where you're all headed. But to your earlier point, like, we don't have time for the beefing. No, we don't have time. But guess who likes to beef? People with self-interest. I'm not saying David Sachs is self-interest, but I think I just said that David Sachs is self-interest. I think it's all a Silicon Valley beef.

41:32Kara Swisher:And I don't think they're interested in national security at all, at all, at all. Like in so many ways, it's something else happening here. But speaking of which, with Carlini, this research scientist in Anthropic, let's listen to what he has to say about whether we're in for stability or chaos. Let's listen to him talk about it. I think the primary thing that determines how this plays out is how good the models get and whether or not they favor defenders or attackers more. And I feel like this is mostly a question of nature. and we can try and balance it one way or the other by making sure that, you know, when we put these models out for the first time, we bias them towards defensive capabilities.

42:11But I don't feel like there's any particular action that this week we can take that will determine what happens here.

42:18Kara Swisher:Are we past the point of policy or an ability to handle these risks that AI poses to cybersecurity? You know, I think that actually what Anthropic did with Mythos, essentially withholding it, they announced this project, Project Glasswing, where they were going to give the model to a certain subset of companies, mostly cybersecurity companies and banks, so that they could test their own systems and basically get ahead of the threat that was going to come. it's not perfect there will be jailbreaks etc but i think it's actually a taste of somewhat good policy that we essentially before we kind of throw these capabilities into everyone's lap we essentially test them against ourselves and that way at least have a chance of defending ourselves you know there are companies coming to market that deploy agents that mimic these adversaries that you can test against your systems.

43:16And not just the usual ways, but with social engineering and that kind of a thing. So there are, I think, ways to essentially uplevel ourselves here. And I think the best way is probably something that looks a lot like Glasswing. And I don't think that it's a bad idea to essentially force the frontier labs to red team these systems and give companies, particularly in critical infrastructure, advanced access to these models so that they can up-level themselves as well. But I have now been in cybersecurity for almost 20 years, and the state of our cybersecurity, particularly at critical infrastructure entities, is terrible.

44:05We'll be back in a minute.

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45:23Kara Swisher:Let's go into cyber threats, the U.S. ahead of the midterms. The Trump administration has weakened CISA, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, CISA, which Trump established actually in 2018 as responsible for election cybersecurity, among other things. He also shut down an FBI task force intended to fight foreign influence in elections. The New York Times has reported these changes are part of a larger effort to affect the outcome of midterm elections. Talk about diminished cybersecurity agencies will impact election officials, voters and potentially the results. And that's that's not with the other stuff that they're doing.

45:56Kara Swisher:They're also getting these bipartisan commissions that help elections and give them good information. They're trying to break them down. Talk a little bit about that state when you're saying it's a shit show, essentially. So I should disclose here that when I left the New York Times, I left in part because I joined the essentially the advisory board at CISA, which is the cybersecurity and infrastructure security agency under Biden. They wanted a journalist on that committee. They asked me. I said yes, but of course that meant stepping out of journalism because you can't be sort of inside the tent and reporting outside the tent at the same time.

46:33And it was incredible because I joined just before Russia invaded Ukraine. And a lot of CISA's efforts during that timeframe went towards getting American companies to get their shields up and also working with Ukraine cyber defense entities and other allies to help Ukraine. And it was an incredible effort. And one day that should be my next book, because it really was a model for how public-private partnerships can come together in a meaningful way. And, you know, I walked into that advisory role with basically zero faith in the federal government doing anything on cybersecurity. And I left truly impressed at what they were able to build in such a short time.

47:14So imagine my dismay when, you know, by the way, I got a letter saying, due to the misuse of resources, you are no longer on this committee. Like, I don't think I ever got paid a single dollar. In fact, I think I like forgot to expense my, you know, economy back at the plane.

47:32Kara Swisher:So Elon's always trying to save us money. Elon's always trying to save us money, mostly so he can take it for himself. But go ahead. So, you know, they eliminated that committee fine, but then they started hollowing out the actual agency, I think, in large part because of Chris Krebs coming out in the 2020 election and calling it the most secure election in history. But yeah, they took out some of the best. Those are people who were recruited during that time that I served on that committee who were probationary, which is just like, that's what happens when you take these jobs. No matter who you are or how good you are, you're just probationary until one day.

48:10Kara Swisher:As long as you're not North Korean, but go ahead. Yes, exactly. Way to bring us full circle. So anyway, they basically fired all those people. And now we have a hollowed out cyber defense agency, and it's kind of free reign. Now, I should give credit to the FBI that I think has really stepped up and the FBI cyber division is incredible. And they are, you know, still doing what needs to be done to sort of out some of these Chinese operations on our critical infrastructure. And they're, you know, getting on top of this North Korean issue as well. And those are really good people. I will say that the people I have met in the FBI cyber division are fantastic.

48:46But they are shouldering a lot. Patel doesn't know about them yet. Yeah, and hopefully he doesn't listen to this because I'd like to keep it that way. But yeah, it doesn't make any sense. You know, if you truly care about national security, well, cybersecurity is national security. This is where our adversaries, especially adversaries that know they can never match us militarily, are investing. and you know it might be the case that you don't care if russia tries to interfere with our elections because maybe you think that they're on your side but they're not the only game in town you know there is china there is iran there are other adversaries there are a lot of good reasons why we should all care about cybersecurity of our critical infrastructure.

49:41And it's getting to the point where we're just sort of waiting for that everything everywhere, all at once attack era to start, but it's coming. I mean, it's coming without human fatigue from machines across all time zones. And it hasn't happened yet, but hopefully once it does, we'll see just how short-sighted these decisions were.

50:02Kara Swisher:The other side of that, of course, is there are real threats from China and Russia. And you talked about exploiting the public debate around data centers is so division through AI-generated images on social media. I do think it's a real grassroots situation and it's not being organized by Russia and China. People on the ground are really upset about these data centers. But there is an element of foreign influence campaigns everywhere in every aspect of America now. How prepared are U.S. cyber officials to combat this level of misinformation ahead of midterms? the stuff that's there already. Although some of the misinformation is from the government itself, by the way.

50:38Kara Swisher:So it's kind of a weird situation we find ourselves in. Yeah, I would say it's the weirdest situation that we've been in since I started studying this stuff. We are in no way prepared, is my understanding, for some of the coordinated misinformation campaigns that will come at us full throttle in this election. You know, it wasn't just CISA, it was the State Department. Their bureau that basically monitored these threats was completely dismantled. And we saw what happened, I think it was last week, where they essentially fired everyone on this election commission that their whole job is ensuring free and fair elections at the state level or helping states offer free and fair elections.

51:19So I'm pretty concerned. This is coming at us, though. It's not just Russia. What could they do?

51:25Kara Swisher:Give me an example. What could any of these sort of nefarious entities do? So my nightmare scenario has always been that we saw in 2016 that Russia got access to the voter rolls. And they didn't do anything, right, was our understanding. But they got access to them. And it was clear that they were sort of mapping our election infrastructure. And the sort of consolation that I would hear at the time was, well, you know, thank God our elections are so decentralized. They could never hack this thing at scale. But I think what we have all learned over the last 12 years is our elections come down to a few purple states and a few counties in those purple states.

52:15And my nightmare scenario is you would pull off a hack where you'd essentially go to those voter rolls and mark the people that might vote for the candidate that you don't want to win as not registered. You would change their registration status. So they would show up to vote on election day and they'd be told, oh, you're not registered. You could think of it like a denial of service attack against sort of key people in these key counties in a US election. And when we're not paying attention to some of these operations, that's really hacking. That's not disinformation. It's more that we've dismantled disinformation, I'm assuming, hoping.

52:57But you could use AI to figure out the 300 key people here. Well, it's, you know, what I just described as a hacking campaign, but you could also imagine a disinformation campaign aimed at those people where you wouldn't have to change their registration status or leave those fingerprints, but would just send them some kind of notice to say, hey, you're not registered. And maybe they wouldn't show up on their own volition. And then how do you go back and track that? And there are all sorts of tools that are being thrown in people and nation states lapsed to do that. So when you don't have people whose specific job is to track these campaigns at the State Department, at CISA, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, that's very troubling.

53:39Kara Swisher:Yeah, it's almost like they want to change elections. It's interesting. Anyway, last question. Last year on this podcast, you said that cybersecurity remains a bipartisan issue, despite all this nonsense from Trump especially. You said it remains a bipartisan issue. Is that still true? Do you feel that or not at this point? Because the Trump administration is trying to put his finger on the scale. It's very obvious through these firings and demotions or, you know, just disintegration of these units that matter. So, you know, clearly at the White House, it's been politicized. It's no longer a bipartisan issue.

54:15every level below that though. I've met with staffers for senators from both sides, same with Congress. There's a lot of collaboration that happens in cybersecurity, thank God, not just among political parties, but among competitive companies. This is one space where the chief information security officers are constantly talking to each other about the threats that they're seeing. And they're even organized by industry where they get together and talk about the threats that they're seeing. And that level of threat intelligence is only increasing now with AI and hopefully will continue to scale.

54:49Unfortunately, some of these things have become politicized, particularly around the misinformation, disinformation tracking. And Elon made it a huge issue. The Twitter files were basically used to validate this conspiracy theory and validate what happened next, which was sort of the destruction of the teams that track these issues. And even worse, we saw the people who worked on these issues at Twitter, et cetera, become targets for death threats, et cetera. So it's like, who wants to raise their hand to take these jobs anymore? You know, we saw what happened with Chris Krebs. So who does? Well, you know, it's depressing.

55:32It's not just cybersecurity. You know, I was calling my friend who I think is infinitely qualified to run for Senate in Maine right now. And if he was to stand up and raise his hand and say, I'm running, I think he could win. But he won't because he's looking at past data that says there's a narrow path. But more than that, it's just like, if you have a nice life, why put yourself through that right now? And it is happening on both sides of the aisle. I also went to college with Mike Gallagher. And when he retired from Congress, he said, I signed up for this, but my family didn't sign up for death threats and swatting.

56:06To me, that's almost like... Very smart guy.

56:08Kara Swisher:Very, too bad he left, right? Another person who was very sharp and bipartisan. But do you have any hopes for bipartisanship, I guess, at this moment? I think someone has to go. And I think until then, it's just going to get worse and worse and worse. Well, we get an attack. Or we get an attack that's devastating. Yeah. Well, on that note, Nicole, I appreciate it. This is a great conversation. I really appreciate it. You bring all this sunshine to our world. Right. Just a ray of sunshine. Ray of cyber sunshine. Thank you so much, Nicole. Oh my gosh. Thank you so much, Cara. Good to see you.

56:53Kara Swisher:Today's show was produced by Michelle Alloy, Catherine Millsop, Madeline LaPlante-Duby, and Kaylin Lynch. Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. special thanks to Julia Sharp Levine Bradley Sylvester and Dave Shaw our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan and our theme music is by Trackademics if you're already following the show you won't be recruited to join a global hacking crime syndicate if not your linen closet would make a great laptop farm go wherever you listen to podcasts search for On With Kara Swisher and hit follow thanks for listening to On With Kara Swisher from Podium Media New York Magazine the Vox Media Podcast Network and us we'll be back on Monday with more

57:37Kara Swisher:Thanks again to Odoo for supporting this show. Odoo wants to be your ultimate all-in-one, fully integrated platform to handle everything. Seriously, everything. Inventory, CRM, accounting, HR, and much more. No more shopping around or settling for expensive services that can only handle a fraction of your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com.