160: Shakedowns, Coups and COP 30

18 Nov 2025 · 46 min · 22 chapters

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In short

Page 94 podcast episode covering (1) UK media law and Donald Trump’s planned libel suit against the BBC over Panorama edits about Jan 6; (2) UK politics: Shabana Mahmood’s tougher migration proposals and Labour infighting/leadership “coup” briefings; (3) COP30 and whether climate summits still work.

Guests/backgrounds

Andrew Hunter-Murray (host, Private Eye); Helen Lewis (journalist); Ian Hislop (Private Eye editor); Adam McQueen (media/law commentator; “Florida legal expert” bit).

Key claims

Trump uses lawsuits as “shakedowns” to intimidate and extract settlements; BBC may fear licence-fee costs and insurance leverage. Florida libel requires “actual malice” for public figures. Mahmood’s asylum changes (e.g., stripping wealth except wedding rings; 20-year wait; reassessment every 2.5 years) may be “grotesque” and administratively unrealistic. COP is increasingly performative, but Paris-era voluntary pledges and tech shifts (solar/electric cars) have bent the curve.

Notable examples

BBC Panorama Jan 6 editing; Prescott memo; Trump suits against WSJ/NYT/Paramount/ABC; Rupert Murdoch named in Windsor banquet-related suit; Russell Brand baptizing in a zoo penguin pool; COP targets: 4°C to 2.6°C; solar share rising; Ethiopia banning petrol car imports; Kenya banning plastic bags.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Keir Starmer and Donald Trump

0:45 to 1:53

Discussion about Keir Starmer's call to Donald Trump regarding the BBC lawsuit.

“And let's start with a phone call that's happening right now, which is going to be Keir Starmer speaking to Donald Trump, begging him not to sue the BBC for five billion dollars or whatever figure he's reached now.”

BBC Editing Controversy

1:53 to 2:55

Analysis of the BBC's editing of Trump's speech and its implications.

“we're going to go down to the Capitol and I will be with you.”

Legal Context of Trump's Claims

2:55 to 4:22

Exploration of the legal framework surrounding Trump's potential lawsuit.

“Legally, the fact that you're all offering common sense views is of no interest.”

Trump's Lawsuit Strategy

4:22 to 5:30

Discussion on Trump's history of lawsuits and tactics in legal battles.

“It was screened in Britain, though no one noticed.”

Comparison of US and UK Libel Laws

5:30 to 6:45

Comparison of libel laws in the US and UK, focusing on jury trials.

“He changed his registration from New York down to Florida.”

Potential Outcomes of Trump's Lawsuit

6:45 to 7:42

Speculation on the possible outcomes if Trump proceeds with his lawsuit.

“I know private eyes come against this in a case in Northern Ireland where you still do get jewellery, don't you, Ian?”

Trump's History with Legal Actions

7:42 to 10:25

Detailed examination of Trump's past legal actions against media organizations.

“They could be huge Gavin and Stacey fans in Florida.”

The BBC's Potential Response

10:25 to 12:20

Discussion on how the BBC might navigate Trump's legal threats and pressures.

“That's the signature and the birthday card in the Epstein birthday book.”

Media Leverage and the BBC

14:00 to 17:50

Explore the dynamics of media leverage and the unique role of the BBC in British society.

“But if you're in tandem with people who have libel insurance, there comes a moment where the people you've been sitting next to are saying, yeah, we're going to fight this.”

Judicial System and Political Pressure

17:50 to 19:27

Discussion on the implications of Donald Trump's legal battles and the political pressure on the BBC.

“They will make, I mean, this is a case of it.”
Show all 22 chapters

New Home Secretary and Immigration Policy

20:40 to 22:40

Analysis of the new Home Secretary's immigration policy and its societal implications.

“who has decided that we're going to really stop the lights this time.”

Challenges in Policy Implementation

22:40 to 24:54

Examine the challenges Labour faces in implementing immigration reforms amidst political dissent.

“And then we essentially managed to stop people getting on the underneath of lorries.”

Economic Policies and Taxation

24:54 to 28:00

Discussion on Labour's economic strategies, taxation, and the broader implications for governance.

“Is this part of a national desire for psychodrama that, I mean, 15 months of the same PM?”

Political Maneuvering Within Labour

28:00 to 29:23

Exploring the internal dynamics and potential leadership challenges within the Labour Party.

“I think it's because they've got seats that are facing in all different ways.”

Coup Rumors and Party Ambitions

29:23 to 31:19

Discussion on coup rumors against Keir Starmer and ambitions of Wes Streeting and Shemana Mahmood.

“So on Tuesday lobby journalists began to get briefings basically saying And there's a plot for a coup against Keir Starmer, but he's well going to fight them in the car park.”

The Rise of Conservatism in Labour Policies

31:19 to 33:46

Analysis of the conservative shift in Labour policies under new leadership.

“He can be leader later when everything isn't a shit show.”

The Evolving COP Climate Summit

33:46 to 36:40

An overview of the 30th COP climate summit, its significance, and criticisms.

“This one is in Brazil, which is quite circular because this is where it all began.”

COP's Impact on Climate Action

36:40 to 39:45

Discussion on the effectiveness of COP meetings in addressing climate issues.

“There's the Powering Past Coal Alliance.”

Global Shifts Towards Renewable Energy

39:45 to 42:04

Examination of global transitions to renewable energy sources and the economic implications.

“Yeah, it's a shame that Elon Musk's brain melted because actually he had a solar energy company, he had battery works, he obviously had Tesla making electric cars until he decided it was all woke nonsense.”

Solar Developments and Climate Change

42:04 to 45:02

Discussion on Saudi Arabia's solar initiatives and global climate challenges.

“even they have announced big new solar developments that I think actually will happen, unlike the 100-mile-long city in the desert, the Neom.”

Political Influence on Climate Policy

45:02 to 45:54

Analysis of how political leadership affects climate initiatives and technology.

“I mean, also the fact that Gavin Newsom, governor of California, was there.”

Baking Analogies and Show Wrap-Up

45:54 to 46:28

Light-hearted banter about baking as the hosts wrap up the episode.

“analogies all the way through the show today what is on your mind?”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Saturday, September 26th, two of combat sports most dangerous strikers collide. Bare Knuckle. Liverpool's own Darren the Gorilla Till goes to war with Cuban powerhouse Yoel Soldier of God Romero. Plus the Bare Knuckle Middleweight Championship of the World is on the line when the reigning champ Dave the Redneck Mundell defends against undefeated British challenger Jack the Meat Cleaver Colon. BKFC 94. Till vs. Romero. Watch it live only on DAZN. Sign up now at DAZN.com. Page 94. The Private Eye Podcast. Hello and welcome to another episode of Page 94. My name is Andrew Hunter-Murray and I'm here in the Private Eye studio with Helen Lewis, Ian Hislop and Adam McQueen.

0:41We're here to discuss everything that's happened since the last issue of the magazine came out a week ago. And let's start with a phone call that's happening right now, which is going to be Keir Starmer speaking to Donald Trump, begging him not to sue the BBC for five billion dollars or whatever figure he's reached now. Helen can you explain? I think and I wrote in this week's magazine that I think this is the one that the BBC are happiest talking about because essentially they'd rather like to have an argument with Donald Trump if anyone else given his broad unpopularity in Britain although actually polling did suggest that most people think that they were wrong to edit that they basically edited two bits of the speech from January the 6th 2021 when he said like let's all go down to the Capitol and then there's a bit where they cut out where he said and just have a lovely peaceful protest and definitely nobody he'd shout hang Mike Pence and bring in a load of zip ties.

1:30And then a bit later in the speech where he says, you know, you go down there and we're going to fight like hell. Yeah, one of our readers said, can you make it absolutely clear that by the time he said fight, fight, fight, his supporters were actually fighting. So what he was doing was placating the crowd, which I think is a good point from a reader. And I'm going to pass it to the BBC's lawyers in case that helps. The bit they cut out was he said, we're going to go down to the Capitol and I will be with you. And then he wasn't. He didn't. No, he wasn't. Actually, in a way, they were making him look better by that cut, weren't they?

2:01And can I check why they were all there in the first place? Was it because Trump had spent weeks denying the legitimacy of the election result? No, you're Trump deranged, Andy. Oh, got it. Okay. And probably worked for the BBC. Sorry, I'm just summarising the rest of the letters that have come in. Yeah, it was a certification of 2020 election results. But what ended up happening is, as you would have seen from the footage at the time, lots of people stormed into the Capitol building in Washington, D.C. a protester was shot trying to climb through a door. And since then, Trump has... He was impeached subsequently, wasn't he?

2:32Yeah. There was enough kind of evidence to make him look bad that the BBC didn't need to do an absolutely idiotic edit. Right. And he pardoned violent protesters in that whilst constantly quacking on about Antifa and how they're the real threat to America, threatening to certify them as a domestic terrorist organisation. But yeah, so you're right. Basically, Donald Trump didn't say exactly what the BBC accused him of saying. There is a larger context to that, which is that we may think he said some things that were nonetheless quite bad. Legally, the fact that you're all offering common sense views is of no interest.

3:05Can we get down to what the law in America will allow him to do? Well, luckily, we've got massive Florida legal expert Adam McQueen. Yeah, I've been on Wikipedia. No, I've been slightly further than Wikipedia. Yeah, no, sort of standard thing that we say in the media in Britain is that American law is much, much better than British law when it comes to libel. because they've got free speech. I suspect in this case, actually, it's one of these cases where Britain comes off rather better because there's a statute of limitations in Britain which says that you can only sue for libel for a year after the broadcast or the publication took place on the very good grounds that if you've been horribly damaged by something and had your reputation reduced, you probably would have noticed before 12 months were out.

3:45In this case, Trump didn't. He had to have it pointed out to him by the Daily Telegraph. Quite an awful thing had been done to him in October 2024. but he is still nevertheless claiming that his reputation was damaged so horribly that he has a case for libel. He's going to sue in Florida. How far could he have gone if he hadn't had his reputation damaged by this? I know. What's the promotion that he thinks he's missed out on here? This you would think is kind of the key problem with this is that you have to prove that harm has been done to your reputation. The fact that he then went on to win the election and be elected as president of the USA does kind of suggest that it didn't have an enormous material effect on things.

4:19I mean it was very unlikely that it was going to. given this was a broadcast of Panorama which was only made in Britain and not on BBC America. Was it screened there? It was never been screened there. It was screened in Britain, though no one noticed. But what if accidentally several million American tourists had come over here, watched it in their hotel rooms, gone home? You're an expert witness for him, aren't you? Yeah, I'm deep cover. That is about the one case you can... I suppose you could also say if people had downloaded VPNs then presumably they would have been able to log in to the BBC iPlayer.

4:50But I think even then you're getting into some quite sort of ropey kind of issues. There was a case where the Barclay brothers, do you remember this, Ian sued John Sweeney over an article that appeared in the Observer, but they sued in the French courts. And it turns out, you know, there are one or two copies of the Observer that are kind of taken over and sold at Gardu Nord on Monday morning or something. So that was ground enough for them to be able to sue there. Yachting magazines used to be a good thing for these sort of oligarchs. And they would say that the story had been picked up in some magazine that they read when they were buying a yacht.

5:21I mean, there are a couple of really spurious cases. But in this one, it looks like he'll end up in Florida? In Florida, yeah, that's where he's going to bring it, which of course he is resident. He's a voter in Florida, isn't he? He changed his registration from New York down to Florida. Yeah, that is a slight problem because in Florida, they have one other thing which we don't have to our advantage in the British system anymore, which is libel cases that are heard by a jury, which has not been the case in this country for a very long time and just to clarify that it is still possible you can apply for a libel case to be heard by a jury here the last case where someone tried to do that that I know is Lawrence Fox famously actor turned lunatic who was sued by three people who on Twitter he had decided to call paedophiles he countersued and said that they'd called him racist and said that was libelous of him he wanted that to be heard by a jury on the grounds and this is the sort of thing I don't need to give you any advice on this and things that don't go down well with judges but he said it on the grounds that the judge was bound to show involuntary bias uh so could he please have a jury trial and said didn't go down well with mr justice nicklin he said no no actually i'm not biased at all i can hear this and and and lawrence fox did i'm afraid lose that case and had to pay damages for calling people pedophiles he is currently appealing the other half of the case which is um the bit about where he was called racist so that part of the case is still ongoing but in this country other than that we do not have jury trials hearing libel cases, certainly in England and Wales.

6:47The case is different. I know private eyes come against this in a case in Northern Ireland where you still do get jewellery, don't you, Ian? You do. And sometimes the make-up of the jury, say on religious or denominational basis, has some bearing on the outcome of the case. I felt, perhaps unfairly, that that was the reason that we lost so spectacularly in some of the cases there. But I don't feel we need to go into that. What I'm interested in is, can Trump find the equivalent process where Elon Musk can happily call someone a pedo man and get off? Is there a reverse where they'll say, yes, Trump was obviously given a very, very bad time by the BBC and we should give him five billion pounds?

7:36Is it possible? Yeah, and I think that's where the jury come in, because the jury of Floridians are as likely to be biased in a particular political direction as, say, your hypothetical jury in Northern Ireland might have one written about a politician on either side there. They could be huge Gavin and Stacey fans in Florida. We don't know. They might be devout Beeb defenders. It's very possible. Can I interject? You know I love Florida after having gone there to report on Governor DeSantis, but do you want to know the thing that's happened in Florida this week that might give you an indication of what the make-up of this jewellery pool might be like?

8:07Yes. Go on. In Florida, very recently, Russell Brand baptised someone to Christianity in a penguin pool at the zoo. With penguins? I don't know. It wasn't a penguin, it was a human. the penguins were just witnesses godparents members of the congregation it's only about a year since he was baptised in the River Thames by Bear Grylls so now he's allowed to baptise people himself, is this how it usually works? it's an apostolic succession surely you've got the hang of this this is celebrity Christianity isn't it, it's a specific sect it was also just quite unsanitary I don't know what diseases penguins have but I wouldn't really testify that you would want to...

8:52You don't know what disease is Russell Brand.

8:57Russell Brand gave a penguin chlamydia. No, that's not true. Would be an example of a libelous comment on which Russell Brand would be justified in Syria. And we were always told that it was much, much better in America because you had to prove, particularly with public figures, that the intent was malicious. And if you couldn't prove malice, which in America traditionally was a high bar, then you'd failed. whereas in Britain you don't have to prove malice. They sort of assume it, particularly when they're suing the eye. They just look at your face and they think, you meant it. I'll have a couple of look at you lot.

9:29You're absolutely right. That is an obligation in Florida, particularly for public officials. They have to prove actual malice in it. I would have thought actually in that point he has something of a case which comes in the Prescott memo which was raising the idea not just of one particular bit of bad editing but an actual bias by the entire newsroom of the BBC against Trump in general, which they have. They've apologised specifically for that particular edit, haven't they? The problem is that Trump does more bad things. I mean, I've had, as you know, many criticisms of Joe Biden and the Democrats.

10:01But if you look at Donald Trump's record of losing lawsuits and having criminal charges, impeachments against him, if you weigh that in the balance against the things that Kamala Harris is supposed to do, this is one of the allegations in the Prescott report, is that there was just a lot more on his rap sheet. The other thing to mention, I think, is the fact that none of these lawsuits that Trump ever raises against the media ever gets a judgment in his favor. I went looking, and I'm sure readers, listeners can write in with one, because I just can't find one. So let's go through a couple of them.

10:31Wall Street Journal, that's ongoing. That's the signature and the birthday card in the Epstein birthday book. Ten billion he wants off them. For what? For saying that he was friends with Jeffrey Epstein. Which he was. Which he obviously was. and there's a whole huge tranche of new emails reminding everyone just how friendly they were at one point. And extraordinary, with that case still ongoing, who was one of the guests of honour at Trump's state banquet at Windsor last month? Rupert Murdoch, who is named in the suit, that has been specifically sued, and they're trying to bring forward his witness statements in case he's not around.

11:02Nice to see that they can put that aside to get together in the state banquet. That's a real lesson to all in the age of cancel culture. So that one's going on. The Wall Street Journal basically said we're not folding, at which point he's, you know, where's it going to go? The New York Times, similarly, he tried to keep them for 15 billion, saying that they'd said very mean things and endorsed Kamala. And they just went, ark or press dram on him, basically. And the ones that he actually has ended up getting a pair with, so Paramount and ABC. Paramount was over the editing of the 60 Minutes documentary on CBS, Kamala Harris's Answers, which was another misleading edit.

11:35And they just basically folded. Some of the team at 60 Minutes resigned. They've now put Barry Weiss of the Free Press in charge of CBS, a more Trump-friendly voice, because essentially they want to navigate the new media environment in which he's the president and source of all kind of access and power. And the same thing with ABC, a parent company, Disney. George Stephanopoulos, the anchor on that, said Trump had been found liable in a court for rape. He had merely, as I've said before, he'd merely been found liable for sexual abuse. They gave him some money to the presidential library, basically, to make him go away and to get their corporate goals back on track.

12:07So this is a clear modus operandi. It's a shake down. It's always a shake down. It's absolutely, and actually extends way before his time as president already. I mean, he was engaged in all his time as a New York kind of real estate mugger. He was engaged in countless lawsuits. I mean, his thing then was to get contractors in to do work and then query the work and say he wasn't going to pay the full bill and tie people up in kind of legal costs. Which, if you're a small building firm in New York going up against the Trump organization, even if you think you're going to win the case, it's tying you up in huge due cases.

12:37The journalists found this was ahead of the 2016 election, 3 ,500 lawsuits which have been brought in cases like that with businesses trying to sue the Trump organization for unpaid fees and things. So he's always been a man who uses the law to his own ends, not necessarily, as we were saying, in cases that get all the way to court, but in cases where just the sheer kind of terror and cost of fighting a case makes people back down. And this is the bit that worries me about the BBC, because the BBC do have quite a lot of form on bricking it and pulling out of these cases. And there is a problem in that he is a very wealthy private individual as well as being the President of the United States.

13:14And the BBC is a state-funded, licence-payer-funded organisation which is supposed to be responsible with money. So they are terrified about being seen to waste licence-payers' money. And there were two stories in the press. One was a warning from various sources, i.e. the usual suspects, that you'd better not be using licence-payers' money for this case. And now I'm thinking that's the only money they have. If they sell a programme or a building or a picture, it's because a licence payer paid for it originally. There is no other source. And the other story said, well, maybe the insurance will pay.

13:48Well, I have to say that during my history of fighting libel actions, occasionally Private Eye fought an action in tandem with someone who had libel insurance. Suffice to say, we never had libel insurance and still don't. But if you're in tandem with people who have libel insurance, there comes a moment where the people you've been sitting next to are saying, yeah, we're going to fight this. We're going to fight this. They suddenly say, Ian, we were thinking of settling. And that's because their insurers have said, you're settling now. And they get the say. So it is. Wouldn't that be something, though, if the BBC ends up basically donating money, sort of giving him a jet like the Qataris or donating to his.

14:29The question then becomes, what leverage does he have over them? Because what he's used in American media organisations is, I'll kick you out of the White House press pool. You won't travel on Air Force One anymore. I'll block your merger with another organisation. You know, I'll set the regulators on you. None of that really applies to the BBC. I mean, he could be beastly to Gary Donoghue. You know, sort of like summoning Sarah Smith to just say sort of mean things about her appearance. But, you know, there's not a lot of, he hasn't got a lot of, what can he do to the BBC? or he can, as you said at the start, he can moan to Keir Starmer and say no one from Britain has ever allowed a visa again until it's happened.

15:04In terms of access, he's already giving first questions at press conferences to GB News and singing the praises of Beverly Turner at all times. So, you know, there's not a lot more that he can take away from them. Have you watched the GB News interview with Beverly Turner and Trump? Because I haven't yet. And I thought you may be the only person I know who would voluntarily do that to themselves. I'm going to rush back to the office and watch it. Would you say you're a great president or the greatest president? It's going to be like that. That is the sort of coverage he likes, isn't it? Well, I'm hoping someone will come up with a statistic about the number of times that Ofcom have ruled already against GB News in a very short history of broadcasting and the number of times against the BBC.

15:44It's in its entire history. I mean, there are a few more pot and petals to go. Very biased, very biased to give you, Ian. Very biased. No, it's genuinely outrageous. And also the spectacle of various British political figures falling over themselves to criticise the BBC and say, well, this is a clear argument. The BBC shouldn't exist anymore. These people have no idea what exists in a country where you don't where even the sort of fragmented version of the BBC we've got, where the people who work in the newsroom have to do endless layers of checks and compliance and referencing things upwards.

16:15Once that's taken away, you will really miss it. You will really miss it. How is your Radio 4 show? Good. Well, that's right. No, I went on various bits of the BBC to say, I think some of the criticisms in the Prescott report are worth reflecting on. I think the BBC made mistakes in both directions on Israel-Gaza. I think on gender, it's really found it difficult to kind of hold the space in for a discussion. But equally well, as somebody who spends a lot of time in America and covering the American media, the BBC is sort of squatting on the centre of British public life that means people from very different political persuasions have to be represented on the same shows.

16:50and what you've got in America is you've got Fox and all the things now beyond Fox and you've got MSNBC now rebranded as MS Now and all the things beyond that and then there's just this cavernous space in the middle and that's the bit that the BBC is holding us together as a society genuinely. You don't get versions of the World Service on Fox where they hire Russian dissident journalists who've had to flee Russia to try and report some of the truth to people inside Russia who are brave enough to listen via or VPN, you just don't get it. Well, the closest equivalents to that were Voice of America and NPR, which he's already withdrawn funding for, hasn't he?

17:25So, you know, that's direct. I mean, and again, for those of us who were brought up on an older generation of American journalists, you know, like Ed Morrow, I mean, talking about impartiality, he said, you have to remember when you're talking about putting both sides of the case, sometimes there isn't another side. And obviously I would try and use that with Trump. What I would just say about the BBC is that you should never, ever underestimate their ability to turn a crisis into a full scale, 100 story flaming clusterfuck. They will make, I mean, this is a case of it. Michael Prescott put that kind of dossier into the BBC board, did he not, in June last year?

18:06And it was ignored or not acted upon, nothing done about it to his satisfaction. Then mysteriously somehow ends up with the Daily Telegraph and causes this kind of enormous crisis. Not very mysteriously, if you read last issue. We've lost a director of news, we've lost a director general. Traditionally, what the BBC tends to do is lurch in the opposite direction to the mistakes it was making last time, overcompensate horribly. I mean, you remember this when they failed to expose Jimmy Savile on Newsnight, then they lurched straight into exposing someone who wasn't a paedophile. And we lost another director general over that one, didn't we?

18:41It tends to be a case of going madly in one direction, then madly in another. And what worries me is that they're urged to prove that they are not biased against Trump. And actually, they don't have this kind of left wing bias is that now they will do everything they can to compensate him. And we'll come up with, because of those other financial pressures that we're mentioning as well, some sort of settlement out of court, which then essentially makes them the loser, doesn't it? My worry is, my understanding of the American judicial system is that he obviously has no case. He brings it. He might get a jury.

19:14They might say, yes, you can have five billion pounds or they might not. Even if he loses, he goes to a higher court. If he loses in there, despite not having the case, he goes to a higher court. We end up in the Supreme Court. Guess what? Donald wins. End of the BBC. Another five billion into the black hole. Britain bankrupt. Well, that's true. And he has got a form for that. I mean, the E. Jean Carroll case where he was found guilty in a civil court in New York of both sexual assault and of defamation of her. the defamation aspect of that is right up there before the Supreme Court now. He's trying to bring that case and that's two years afterwards.

19:45So this could go on forever. And as we were saying, the pressure then from insurers and licence fee payers and the government to just settle and get out of this becomes ever the greater. Can I just tell you the one thing I didn't get in there, which is that Florida still has a criminal libel law, but specifically only if you harm a bank's reputation or accuse a female of being unchaste. So it's lucky the BBC didn't do that. That must be a big problem in Florida.

20:10Saturday, September 26th, two of combat sports' most dangerous strikers collide. Bare Knuckle. Liverpool's own Darren the Gorilla Till goes to war with Cuban powerhouse Yoel Soldier of God Romero. Plus, the Bare Knuckle Middleweight Championship of the World is on the line when the reigning champ Dave the Redneck Mundell defends against undefeated British challenger Jack the Meat Cleaver Colon. BKFC 94. Till vs. Romero. Watch it live only on DAZN. Sign up now at DAZN.com As we are recording this, there is an exciting array of announcements made by Shabana Mahmood, who has decided that we're going to really stop the lights this time.

20:49Is that a fair summary, Helen? It is. As I say, we're recording this as she's actually speaking. I know people only have got the documents, but it was fairly heavily trailed in both The Guardian and The Sun. And she's the new Home Secretary, and she is determined to make our migration regime much tougher. but the reason I wanted to talk about this I think I'm going to confidently predict this is not going to go well I just some of the stuff in there is is relatively sensible and would command when you poll it commands majority support but as a package I think it looks a little bit grotesque so there's a suggestion about whether or not you would take asylum seekers wealth off them and this has kind of been rendered as would you take people's jewelry off them or but at least they get to keep their wedding rings and anything of sentimental value which a point when you say that A lot of people instantly recoil from that.

21:38It just feels very, very mean and cheap and small. But then there's other stuff about whether or not refugees, for example, would now, if they arrive illegally, so through boats, have to wait 20 years before they could get a path to indefinite leave to remain. And that will be reassessed every two and a half years. So the idea being, if you come from somewhere like Syria and there's a change in government, Bashar al-Assad falls, then you say, well, actually, now you were a dissident against that regime. Maybe it's safe for you to go back. So not a completely crazy idea in essence, but it is the idea that we've got enough capacity to interview people every two and a half years is, again, already worrying me.

22:15How big is the backlog already? I mean, that's one of the main problems is the years behind with it. If you're suddenly going to add in all these extra levels of bureaucracy. Yeah, it is shrinking. I mean, the backlog has come down. It's going to go straight up again if they've got to do it again every two and a half years, isn't it? But yeah, so I think it's interesting because it's obviously a very big policy announcement. It is a big challenge to reform and the Conservatives and an attempt to own the issue of immigration and stop the kind of what they call the pull factors that are meaning people are getting on those boats.

22:41Stephen Bush and the FT had a good call this morning saying that the reason that the boats become such an issue is that first of all, we made it harder for people to get visas and come here legally as refugees through orthodox channels. And then we essentially managed to stop people getting on the underneath of lorries. So this is the only method that's left. But people are still willing to make that journey because it's still, you know, the chance of a life in Britain is still the prize that's worth a risk of, I think, a 2 % chance of dying. And is the idea that even though lots of these proposals do command a kind of majority of opinion, that doesn't overlap very neatly with Labour supporters?

23:15Yeah, I thought the most interesting intervention was by Tony Vaughan, who's the MP for Folkestone. So two things, that's the place where obviously most of the small boats land and a very reform-exposed seat, you would say. and he came straight out of the gate and said aren't we trying to make refugees integrate rather than keeping them in this perpetual limbo of whether or not they'll be sent home isn't that what people want from immigration and by the time we're recording this I think nearly two dozen Labour MPs have also come out and criticised the policy and to me that has therefore given it echoes of PIP the personal independence payment this attempt to reform welfare which Labour you'd think have this massive majority but actually they couldn't get their signature welfare reform through because over 100 Labour MPs were ready to rebel on that.

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23:57And this has got this feeling which is, on the surface you think Labour should be able to put through really big changes, but something about it is just not happening. And I think it's possibly because, and we can talk a bit more about this, last week's sense of Keir Starmer is now a sort of temporary leader. Or, the other thing you might say, is a lack of feeling of the direction of travel and the story that Labour are telling. You know, I think that's what MPs felt over Pip, was they were being asked, I think you said this, Adam, being asked essentially to take money away from disabled people, which was not what they'd got into politics to do, and they just didn't want to do it.

24:33And then some of them said they would have signed up for it reluctantly, and then it got pulled anyway, and then they felt really duped and cheated. And this used to happen a lot with Tory MPs under Boris Johnson, where he would just reverse out of policies after everybody had had to go out and defend them. And so it is part of this general roiling sense that 15 months or whatever it is now after the Labour election victory, the wheels are already coming off. Is this part of a national desire for psychodrama that, I mean, 15 months of the same PM? Boring! Why is he still there? Can't we have someone else?

25:07It just seems to be not a very useful thing to have inherited from the Conservatives is a desire to decapitate your own party every year or so. Yeah, I mean, if the decapitation has the effect of changing the underlying structural problems that the country's been wrestling with for years and years and years, then great. But there's a chance it might maybe not achieve everything if you just get Wes in. Well, it comes back to the idea that they didn't really campaign on a manifesto that was truthful in the sense that we spoke about this on the last podcast. The kind of footsie about the budget, about am I going to raise income tax?

25:42am I not? What they could have done is come in, won that argument, made that argument and won that argument and come in on a, actually we're going to have to increase the tax base of the UK, that's going to require some hard sacrifices. But they just wanted to squeak over the line with an anti-Tory vote and sure enough they did. But now there's no, you know, there's no kind of mandate really for the things that they've been thinking about doing. Do you think they could get anything through at all? Well, so the other new proposals come in for this tourist tax which they're going the tag onto the devolution bill.

26:13And something like that, which is essentially charged people who aren't British a couple of quid a night in order to give money to metro mares. But immediately the hospitality industry has said, no, no, this will stop people coming to Britain. Stop. Stop this now. I don't believe that one. I don't either. The number of hotel bills I've had, which have had a few euros added on for a tourist tax, and you just kind of go, what the hell is this for? But it's not. But is that going to raise£94 billion? To fill the black hole, come on. It's going to raise money. That figure is not strictly accurate.

26:40can I just say. So they could get that one through but you don't think they can get any of these other big things through? Well I don't know, the income tax climb down is really interesting. So Rachel Reeves summoned everybody into a press conference in November the 3rd, 4th and sort of went, well things aren't looking good guys, what are we going to do about it? She even submitted that plan to the OBR, the Office for Budget Responsibility. So it was really seriously far down the road. Everyone was prepped. Oh will it be 1p, will it be 2p? yeah and then she went oh no the guilt yields actually look much better we won't we won't do it but then now is is poised to keep the tax thresholds for higher and additional rate where they were so she's essentially putting a huge tax rise on a lot of people if those had gone up in line with inflation they'd be much much higher than they are so she's kind of managing in the same way that putting employers national insurance up she's keeping to the vaguely to this letter of no taxes on working people so it's fiscal drag rather than putting your tax up yeah rather than But people don't look...

27:37Semantics, isn't it? Yeah, it absolutely is. People, you know, they're either paying more money in tax or they're not. And that's the way that people look at it. They go, well, no, it's in this tax. So that's absolutely fine. I do sometimes quite want Labour to be, this is a funny phrase, more unpopular. And I know they can't get much more unpopular. But what I mean is they kept saying before the election, we are going to have to make hard choices. And you keep seeing these choices being swerved. Is that because of press screaming? Is it because of... I think it's because they've got seats that are facing in all different ways.

28:06They're vulnerable to a load of seats to the Lib Dems, a load of seats to Reform, probably now a couple of seats to the Greens, maybe some to the Gaza independents. So they're just trying to face in all directions at once. And in Zach Polanski, the new Green leader, new-ish Green leader, is just going, I'd tax the rich more. That's his answer to everything. And you can get into a dry debate about explaining there aren't that many additional rate taxpayers. So the top 1 % of our income band pay 29 % of the income tax. We have a good progressive tax system already. Like, that's good. I support that.

28:36That's a very good idea. But the idea that you can just find, you know, our seven billionaires to pay for the NHS is unfortunately silly. But they can't articulate, if that's not right, who are the people who should pay more tax? The bit that really, really amuses me is how many of these problems are just of their own unnecessary making. I mean, Rachel Reeves, if you're going to end up not raising income tax, don't go out and do a speech in which you say, well I might have to make a manifesto promise by the way because everyone goes oh she's breaking a manifesto promise and don't do it. The whole stuff over Wes treating and the leadership was literally Keir Starmer's number 10 going oh he's very weak you know he's in a very weak position but he's going to fight on he's going to take on anyone who's going to challenge him and you hear oh he's weak and he's going to be challenged.

29:18Can we explain the context of that how that all flew up? No because it made no sense whatsoever. So on Tuesday lobby journalists began to get briefings basically saying And there's a plot for a coup against Keir Starmer, but he's well going to fight them in the car park. Right. And that came from who can say who. But almost everybody's agreed that it's from sources close to Morgan McSweeney, the number 10 chief of staff, Starmer's key election strategist. And then Wes Streeting, who's the health secretary, then went for a media round the next morning, in which he actually knocked it out of the park, which is a huge problem for Starmer.

29:53He essentially said, you're attacking one of the most loyal faithfuls like they did to Joe on traitors and everyone went, oh, we watch his television, he's just like us. Because people had, all the briefings had included the fact that Streeting was... Streeting was the kind of, you know... I thought you were going to explain what traitors was there, which I thought would have been really helpful. But no, you two just assume everyone knows. A popular BBC One show in which people vote out the traitors. People have briefed that Streeting was behind this. Yeah, Streeting was behind this and he got 50 MPs ready to go.

30:22And he's denied it all, but... He probably has now, hasn't he? Yeah, I don't think anyone would be surprised to hear that Wes Streeting would like to be leader of Labour Party has ambitions in that direction. The other thing that intrigued me in my slightly conspiracy theory mindset was that the other person who was then talked about, if it wasn't going to be Wes, it was going to be Shemana Mahmood. Shemana Mahmood, as we've been discussing, then comes out with this sort of oven-ready policy that looks very kind of conservative reform-facing. Is that a coincidence, do you think? I mean, she's only been in the job about five minutes, hasn't she, as Home Secretary?

30:49So she's come up with that pretty quickly. I'm just wondering whether or not that was pre-baked for Yvette Cooper, her predecessor, and she's just become the face of it. I think the thing that's very true is that she is very happy to be quite hard line. She was all for chemically castrating rapists. I mean, you know, she say things that lots of people in Labour simply wouldn't be OK with saying. So it's interesting that it's under her because I think she does genuinely believe this stuff. If you're looking for people who would like to fight a leadership contest now, I would have thought, Wes Streeting, he's quite young.

31:19He can be leader later when everything isn't a shit show. and he's just winning over the resident doctor strikes. He's on a bit of a roll. I think he might just stay where he is at the moment. Shabana Mahmood, you're introducing something that most Labour backbenchers don't like. I think you need a bit of time to wait until that's played out and then maybe you'll do it. So my guess is that the appetite for either of those two people to be leader at the moment is very, very small. For number 10 to make a fuss is crazy. Yeah, certainly among Labour members. The problem that both of them have is that they are on the centre right of the party.

31:57And what our evidence from leadership elections have passed is this is that it's not the same constituency that selected Jeremy Corbyn. Lots of those people have left to go to your party or the Greens. But Keir Starmer's pitch in 2020 was exactly I'm continuity Corbyn, but I wouldn't have done. I would have been stronger in Europe and I would have been tougher on anti-Semitism. It certainly wasn't bury this man's leadership in a big hole. so I think you're absolutely right on that is that actually both of those could probably benefit from cooking a bit longer to try and convince the members. Where Streeting came out and said I welcome the election of Zoran Mamdani, a democratic socialist a very left wing mayor in New York and I was like oh okay you know after somebody who would have agreed with Morgan McSweeney and Peter Mandelson and street urinator Peter Mandelson that the left should be locked into a sealed tomb.

32:44Please google that if you don't know the context there is a story nothing but as someone with a tiny bladder he done away on George Osborne's house nothing but sympathy for Peter Manson's small bladder there'd be no condemnation here but anyway but he once said the left should be like put into a sealed tomb and that is essentially Morgan McSweeney's view it was Wes Streeting's view but Wes Streeting has clearly reminded himself that the other way you could sort of describe the left is Labour selection contest voters and he should probably start being nice to them yes I think it's one of the very last popular Labour ministers is now Ed Miliband who has, he said the other day in an interview, I've been thoroughly inoculated against wanting the Labour leadership job.

33:21Thank you very much. That would be a hell of a comeback. The only thing that would make that more spectacular would be if his brother stood against him for it.

33:31Right, now we come on to the light-hearted third story. The end of the world. The end of the world is nigh, nigher than ever before. And to do something about it, the world is now having the 30th COP climate summit. This one is in Brazil, which is quite circular because this is where it all began. The Earth Summit in 1992 was in Rio. Are we doomed, Andy? Come on, catch the chase. Are we doomed? Yeah, definitely. But the question people are asking a lot this year is is COP fit for purpose anymore? Is there a point? This is the 30th we've had of these annual conferences now. Emissions are still rising so the problem is getting worse faster.

34:11What is the point of COP? It's really interesting. All leaders assemble for a couple of days at the start. There's a summit, there are photo ops, there are all of that, there are speeches. They leave for a couple of weeks, and then each country's climate teams, negotiators, diplomats, all of that, thrash out this huge number of subjects about things like finance, about things like emissions, there's so much about forests, about whatever it is, about biodiversity. And at the end of it, you have this statement that is meant to be kind of gaveled through. it doesn't have to be exactly unanimous but it does have to be consensus which basically means almost everyone and various things have been gaveled through with a few objections in the past you know when when like the small island nations have nipped out for a cigarette or whatever they say right right that'll do for this year you know so it's not a perfect process by any means but that's what you end up with you end up with this statement of intent and you end up with a load of very very complicated language that any normal person observing this thinks is very baffling and confusing because it is you know there is a very very good play called kyoto which i would recommend everyone go and sees which recreates one of these conferences including representatives from the small islands the failure of the saudis the chinese the americans to agree anything at all yeah and the attempts to use really the powers of persuasion and punctuation yeah to get through clauses that might mean something i only say that because it if you can get hold of it it is a completely brilliant analysis of how the progress works but that was a long time ago and it's all moved on the language is is insane you get these nations debating furiously are we going to phase out fossil fuels or phase down fossil fuels and you know that was a huge sticking point at Glasgow a few years ago all of this can be said to not have a huge amount of impact on the real world but despite all of this despite the fact you're inviting every country and a lot of them are petro-states and want absolutely nothing to do with this process, nonetheless, progress has been made in very, very big and significant ways that have massively bent the curve of future climate change from four degrees, which is a profoundly toasty situation for the world.

36:21This is by 2100. I mean, really disastrous. Down to 2.6, which is still really bad. We're at about 1.3 at the moment. So all the kind of extra droughts and ask any British farmer how their harvest doing, all of that is down to 1.3 we're on course for 2.6 but the curve has been bent and the brazilian hosts of cop this year have said we want this to be the cop of implementation they already have a target it was set at paris 10 years ago they have a framework that was set at glasgow we now need to speed this up and so you're seeing the cop process change from one where everyone agrees something and then we all go away and do it to one where there are lots of little bilateral processes going on.

37:02There's the Powering Past Coal Alliance. There's the International Solar Group. You know, all of these different little mini coalitions of the willing who are forming their own path. So it's not just the case that China or the petro-state just can block things. Has that problem been overcome? No, I wouldn't say so. The Guardian wrote a brilliant piece outlining how Saudi Arabia have behaved over the last 30 years. And their position is very much, look, we know this transition is going to happen eventually, but we're going to sell the last barrel of oil on the planet because if we stop burning oil quickly, they're stuffed.

37:35I was about to say they're toast, but if they keep burning oil, they are toast. Individual countries have been able to stymie, to slow down, to throw sand in the gears of the negotiations, all of that. It still happens a lot. Even the resolutions that are agreed make people pretend to behave. So even Saudi has a sort of green policy now and talks about building green cities, which obviously aren't going to happen. But it becomes performative in a sense that's quite useful. Weirdly, the innovation behind the Paris Agreement, which was in 2015, and which is the most significant of any of these 30 things, was to say these are now going to be voluntary.

38:13Instead of everyone arguing, saying how much are you going to cut your emissions, the basis of Paris is countries come up with an NDC, a nationally determined contribution, basically set a line in the sand of, let's say, 2050 or 2060, whatever. that is your destination point and the way you get there is left up to you now again those are voluntary but there's a lot of evidence that paris in particular hugely changed the course of things like solar power you know in 2015 solar was one percent of the world's electricity was nothing you know the one in 100 cars was electric today i think it's almost nine percent of electricity is solar one in five cars yeah it's fully electric actually that has changed things a lot it's quite hard to perceive in this absolute mess of you know when the populist narrative is drill baby drill uh climate change isn't happening i think that floods the media and underneath that isn't the story one of the main things that i think has slowed down america's path in particular is that people are not asking for this change to happen china has made huge strides partly because they've had big riots over things like air quality and the chinese leadership are quite nervous of further protests and riots so they've acted and they've acted partly through that and partly through the massive economic opportunity you know if you are producing the thing that powers the world in 50 years time and you've secured 80 of the supply chain and you make 90 of the panels and you've got all the critical minerals stitched up you're amazingly green you're you're in a very good position green stuff yeah yeah absolutely whereas in america there simply isn't that demand at enough of a population level.

39:51Yeah, it's a shame that Elon Musk's brain melted because actually he had a solar energy company, he had battery works, he obviously had Tesla making electric cars until he decided it was all woke nonsense. Oh, yeah. That model that you're talking about, which is let's tech our way out of this. He was a great proponent of that. America had a big lead and they absolutely threw it away. Yeah. And there's a terrific line of, I think it's Bill McKibben who writes about this a lot, there's a chance that America will become a kind of colonial Williamsburg of fossil fuels. You know, you go there as a kind of quaint, oh my God, they're still doing this.

40:23When we have something that's four times as efficient. How amazing, you know. They did that with Chex, where they were the last place in the world that was still using Chex 20 years after everyone else. So the process is ongoing at the moment. The COP is happening. And, you know, we will see what's produced at the end. But this idea that there's going to be a single document at the end of it that magically helps, I think is becoming more old-fashioned. And I think lots of voices are starting to say, this isn't working. We need to find other ways forward. Do they have any effect in countering the populist view that you go as far as you can towards saying it's all nonsense without quite making yourself look an idiot?

41:00Well, the argument now is, obviously, I'm not a climate denier, but I don't think we should spend any money whatsoever on it because times are tight. It's that. I mean, the reform line is, well, we're not climate deniers, but there's nothing we can do about it. I think the places where it's proving a persuasive argument to adopt this new stuff, whether it's solar or wind or whatever, is where people are looking at their bills for the next 50 years. So Ethiopia has, a couple of years ago, banned the import of petrol cars. Kenya's banned plastic bags. I mean, some of the African countries have just done quite big, ballsy things.

41:31But you're right, in a way, they don't have to make an argument in the sense that people looked at the prices of electric cars and how much they would cost to run and the fact there was now infrastructure to run them. and they went, well, this isn't making a statement about me or my values. It's just that's a very good value car. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that's why Ethiopia did it. They were spending a lot on importing oil. I mean, most of the countries in the world import rather than export oil. It's part of the reason China's doing all this is they only produce, I think, about a quarter of their own oil.

41:57So they would really like to find a way forward which doesn't involve being incredibly reliant on the world's oil market. And it's weird that because we talked about the Saudis earlier, even they have announced big new solar developments that I think actually will happen, unlike the 100-mile-long city in the desert, the Neom. I know. Yeah, but it's currently 38 degrees and sunny over there in Saudi Arabia. I was going to say, that's the other thing they've got quite a lot of, as well as oil. Oil down there, sun up there. Absolutely, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think they want to get 50 % of their power through solar by 2030, which, again, is extremely rapid.

42:30But presumably then they could then sell all of their oil to other people, right? So you can produce it domestically and export internationally. That works as an economic model. That's pretty good. The Norwegian model, as I believe it's known. Norway does a great deal of that. And they just want to keep selling until they can sell no more. But your point, climate change means increased immigration from countries that are getting too hot. That level of self-interest surely should register with some of the larger blocks at COP. Back to the whole sort of solar nationalism thing. Good old-fashioned British sunshine hitting good old-fashioned British land.

43:04It hasn't quite taken off. You know, the reform attitude is very much, we don't want any large solar developments. They've claimed a lot of their efficiency savings in the councils they run through things like cutting electric car charging schemes. And I don't think there's a bright green bit of the reform movement yet. As a result of watching COP, have you become more or less optimistic? Good COP, bad COP. Yeah, play good COP, bad COP. We have to go for that headline. That's why they call it COP, really. So we do that headline and they could say COP out as well. and people don't agree. It's a sub-editor's title, isn't it?

43:38Up to a point, Lord Copper. It's really hard to say because it's such a huge thing. I mean, it's amazing that you're getting 190-odd countries saying, right, we're going to try and regulate the temperature of the planet. We've been kind of in essay crisis mode for a long time, saying, look, if we're going to keep the rise to 1.5 degrees, we're going to have to cut by, oh, gosh, 40 % of our emissions by 2035, and then we don't do it. And then we say, oh, well, right, now I think we've got to cut 45 % by 2030. And you start to realize in true SA crisis mode, this is not going to happen. No. That is pretty much baked in.

44:10I think we've got about four years of current emissions before 1.5 is pretty well nailed on. But when Paris was passed 10 years ago, there simply wasn't the infrastructure to build 600 or 700 gigawatts of solar energy a year, which is what we have now. One gigawatt is roughly a coal-fired power plant. You know, it's pretty big. and back in 2004 it took a year to install one gigawatt of solar it now takes about a day you know there are now entire days where i think we're installing two gigawatts of power globally so as long as renewable keeps outpacing the rise in energy demand as long as clean energy keeps outpacing the rise you will just see fossils forced off the system it won't be in time for 1.5 this the seems to be the consensus that's emerging but it could probably be in time for two two degrees of warming if you keep things rising.

45:00So I think that's the bit that does provide the optimism. Yeah, I think that's very optimistic. I mean, also the fact that Gavin Newsom, governor of California, was there. Obviously, the Trump administration didn't send anyone, but he is the governor of whatever it is, the fifth largest economy in the world, and the place that is home to lots of this technology, went along and met people. That if there is a non-Trump president in the White House after the 2028 election, again that might be something that begin that that tech our way out of its solution begins to look more plausible again i i think two degrees sounds terrifying and i'm sure we'll involve a lot of human misery but it does also sound less terrifying than four degrees which is broil absolutely royal territory yes let's can we let's try and set it for simmer yeah not broil what what an optimistic message to end on you know can i say helen you've had an amazing number of baking analogies all the way through the show today what is on your mind?

45:57Were these policies baked in by Shabana Mahmood or by Yvette Cooper? You know fine well it's because you made an amazing cake this morning of which I've already had two slices and I'm just thinking can I go back to the office and have a third? Right, the Private Eye Bake Off will be taking place later in the year back your horse now thank you so much for listening, thank you to Ian, Helen and Adam for coming and playing and we'll be back again in a fortnight with another of these. Before then, if you like Private Eye, just go into your nearest newsagent and buy one or if you've already bought one and you think, oh, I'd love to get this delivered to me, get a subscription at private-eye.co.uk.

46:37That's all for now. The only remaining thanks is to Matt Hill of Rethink Audio for producing. Bye for now.

From the publisher
The team discuss Donald Trump’s legal methods, the mayhem in the UK government (part 94) and what’s really going on at the Amazon climate summit. 

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