Will Burnham risk it all on an early election?

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2:41this is political currency with ed balls and george osborne

2:54Ed Balls: so we are remote even though we're both currently in the country because uh it's half term i've been off good morning britain all week half term break and george i think you offered a trip

3:04George Osborne: yes i'm off with uh our kids with beau and with pax and with arthur to paris to go up the eiffel Tower. That is the principal purpose of the trip to Paris. And we're excited about that. But we did do, I tell you, we did a very cool trip a few days ago to HMS Belfast, which I have not been around for many, many decades. You know, that's the warship, the Second World War warship that is anchored off the Tower of London. And I have to say my three little boys absolutely loved it.

3:36Ed Balls: The last time I went was as a Cub Scout in uniform in probably about 1977 or 78.

3:43George Osborne: But I'll tell you something amazing. They have some volunteers on the ship who are kind of showing people around. And, you know, they're all retired Navy people, basically. So my boys ask this guy, what's your name? That's often their first question. He said, my name is Niels. And they go, were you on HMS Belfast? And he said, no, no, I was never on HMS Belfast, but I was on a ship bit like this called HMS Sheffield. And, of course, my boys don't know about HMS Sheffield. But I said, HMS, you mean the one that was sunk in the Falklands? He said, yes, I was on the ship when it was hit. Amazing.

4:22George Osborne: And so he then proceeded to tell in an age-appropriate way, my little boys, the story of being on HMS Sheffield and being hit by the Exocet missile and sinking and what that experience was like. And the two things that struck me about his story, the first was just how unbelievably lucky he was. He was supposed to be in the engine room, and he was just coming up on deck to deliver a message to the bridge, and as a result was much more likely to have survived than the poor people who were stuck in the engine room. And then second, he said, although he was ending in the water for like 10 to 12 minutes, he was almost unconscious with hypothermia by the time he got picked out of the water by the rescue helicopter.

5:00George Osborne: Anyway, it was a remarkable thing to meet him. He was so friendly about it. He wasn't, you know, he didn't wear it heavily on his sleeve or anything like that. But it was an extraordinary experience. And what a brave man and lovely to have his experience. And my boys were absolutely kind of wide-eyed when he was telling the story. Because, you know, all the stuff about boats sinking and jets and missiles and whatever. It was quite striking. So thank you, Niels, for making a great day out for my three little boys.

5:27Ed Balls: And to all of the retired naval and military personnel who work on HMS Belfast, going to spend the next two months being asked, are you Neils by visitors who've listened to our podcast? We apologise, but Neils, I'm sure you'll enjoy it. Thanks for your service.

5:44George Osborne: I wonder what Neils would have made of the budget. We're going to be talking about that because, you know, defence featured in the budget. We're going to be talking about that, aren't we? We did a hot take yesterday. our almost instant reaction to what John Healy announced, but the dust has settled on the budget. And we're going to talk, I think, since there's not that much to talk about in terms of the substance of the budget, what it means for British politics. And is there going to be an early election? And what about the kind of political messaging, not just of the government, but also the Conservative Party, because Kemi Bainok gave a spirited response to that budget.

6:20Ed Balls: Then we've had 100 days of Andy Burnham in Downing Street, very different from Keir Starmer, but also Rishi Sunak in his approach to doing the job. And in particular, in the way in which he's conducting his media communications, much more use of social media. but also when he's doing big TV or broadcast or newspaper interviews, very willing to speak in a quite open, quite unguarded, speculative way. We've seen that in the last week with interviews he's done about rejoining the European Union, opening up the question of free movement, which we've talked about on our podcast over the last week. And so we're going to ask, what is the Andy Burnham media strategy?

7:08Ed Balls: and is it working for him? And is it something that can last?

7:13George Osborne: He's called the TikTok prime minister, isn't he? Well, there was a TikTok president, remember? That's what Donald Trump was initially called. But Donald Trump is facing a big test next week, the midterm elections. That's going to be the third item we talk about. What are the prospects for the Democrats? What are the prospects for the Republicans? Are we about to see a blue wave in America? Of course, the clue is that blue means Democrat and America, red means Republican. So we're going to turn to that last. But let's start with the budget. We did our hot take yesterday, as I say, and there were some important measures there.

7:47George Osborne: If you were worried about your electricity bills, some measures in the budget for entrepreneurs and the like, but I wouldn't say it was the most comprehensive or fullest budget that has ever been delivered. We went into that in detail, but let's just remind ourselves of, I think, what John Healy he was trying to get across, the message he was trying to communicate. And then let's listen to how Kemi Badenok, leader of the opposition, responded to him. We know who we are. We know where we're going. We can see the Britain we want to be. It's a vision burned into every line of this budget statement.

8:24Madam Deputy Speaker, breathing space now, fresh hope for the future, delivered to the British people by this Labour government. scrapping the carbon tax to bring down energy bills, scrapping stamp duty, abolishing inheritance tax on family homes. That's what people want. So let's cut spending, cut the deficit, fund defence, cut people's taxes. That, Madam Deputy Speaker, is the budget the Chancellor should have delivered today. That is the budget Conservatives would have delivered. and that is going to be the choice at the next election.

9:03George Osborne: So just to sort of recap on the kind of central measures of that budget. First of all, there were the overall forecasts. They were pretty disappointing for growth. The OBR didn't deliver for the Chancellor the upgrading growth that the IMF delivered with its forecast. And as a result, the public finances are somewhat worse and the Chancellor took a decision to spend some money up front as well. And so the deficit is higher than previously expected at just over three and a bit percent. And I guess the overall environment is still one in which the cost of living is going to remain the central issue in the kind of domestic political environment because people's living standards are squeezed.

9:47George Osborne: But you certainly could have had a worse set of forecasts, let's be clear. This was not a disastrous set of forecasts for John Healy. And if you look at his response, it was essentially, I think, to put the kind of country into a holding pattern. So there were some important measures up front of support for energy bills. You get£100 if you're going to have a house that's in a council tax band of A to D into your bank account to help you for that. He showed how he was going to pay for the existing measures on things like cutting VAT on fuel bills and capping bus fares. He confirmed what everyone expected him to confirm, which is the fuel duty freeze is going to go ahead.

10:29George Osborne: There were some measures for savers. They're not going ahead with Rachel Reeves' plan to cut the cash ISA limit. There was a bit of a big tax break for entrepreneurs and founders of companies. only 10 % capital gains tax on their businesses. And then some measures on housing as well, with a big package of money to end rough sleeping. So a whole set of things. I don't think any great surprises on the day. And, you know, the outlines of a growth plan, which maybe we'll come on and discuss, but nothing that I think would kind of dramatically change people's perceptions of where Britain is right now.

11:09Ed Balls: That's right. And if you take that John Healy mantra from the end of his speech, breathing space, well, there's been a number of things done by Andy Burnham and John Healy, which will make people better off than they would have been. But is it going to feel like breathing space when in fact, people are going to be absolutely worse off going into 2027, paying more energy bills, but also with inflation eroding the real value of their wages? And then on hope for the future, is the growth plan going to deliver? And I mean, it's not clear that a big boost of defence spending makes you feel hugely hopeful.

11:47Ed Balls: And how is that going to be paid for? Which is really what Kevin Beynock is trying to get at. It's a tradition for chancellors to then go on the Today programme the next morning. And you would have always done that. I would go on the Today programme as well to take you on. Interestingly, this year, John Healy has done something differently. He actually recorded his interviews for the next morning on Budget Day itself. He had the broadcasters go in to, I guess, the Treasury to do those interviews. He's off on a visit with Andy Burnham. It's as though he sort of wants to get it all done on Budget Day and move on.

12:27Ed Balls: Whereas I think in your time, you would have been thinking that you wanted day two momentum from the Budget. So this is John Healy on the Today programme.

12:35George Osborne: we've got a job to do in government for now and particularly when people are feeling the pressures of the cost of living and the cost of business my job as chancellor is to act as i did in the budget to give people a bit of breathing space but also to start to tackle the longer term changes that are needed on housing on energy on defense on devolving taxes and tax revenues to local leaders and that was a step having been in the treasury before that was regarded in the don't touch box so radical changes for the long term that also start to define and give a direction to britain in the future so that's why i brand the budget um breathing space now and fresh hope for the future

13:18Ed Balls: i mean i thought it was crazy i have to say when rachel reeves did sit down interviews on budget day for the evening users because you want the budget to be the television story not another interview you're doing for the evening news but what do you think about the chancellor pre-recording those interviews the day before well as a result they're not very um important interviews because

13:40George Osborne: you know they don't they don't really give enough time for the media the economic community the business community and so on the ngos to kind of crystallize around some views on the budget and maybe that, you know, they therefore regard that as kind of clever media management in the Treasury. And I very much take your view. I didn't understand why Rachel Reeves would basically trump her own budget by giving an interview later. Once you've done the budget, that's it. You want that to just stand. The next morning, I have to say, doing the Today program interviews, they were often the times I had the kind of biggest rows with broadcasters.

14:17George Osborne: You know, I guess I felt a sort of obligation to do them. I'm not sure I actually felt it was about sort of propelling the momentum. It was more, I felt an obligation to be questioned on my budget. And certainly if I didn't do it, I would be rightly criticized by you and many others. So I kind of regarded it as a sort of obligation, but it didn't usually help me because the next day, you know, the row is developing over the thing that, you know, perhaps you didn't spell out as clearly as you should have in the budget. So maybe Healy's trying to get the best of both worlds. He's saying he's doing the interviews, but by doing them on the pre-recording them, he's avoiding, you know, being caught out too much by the kind of growing story.

14:58George Osborne: We'll see. I mean, we'll see how things develop in the light of those interviews. So let's attempt to answer the central political question, which I think has hung over this budget, which is, is it an early election budget? We touched on this in our hot take. And I think the reason why people think it's an early election budget is twofold. The one is the difficult decisions are all put off. We know that pencils in are very tight spending plans. You described this in our Hot Take special, but essentially kind of austerity spending plans, especially outside defence. At around the time you would have a general election in 2028 or 2029.

15:36George Osborne: And the budget didn't do anything to address those challenging spending plans for a Labour government. And then the second kind of clue is not only that there are no kind of big decisions taken, but the small decisions that were taken were very time limited. And so the additional money for homes for energy bills is only for this year. And the extension of the fuel duty freeze is only until July next year, 2027. The cut in VAT on energy bills is only until July 2027 as well. And remember, the budget is supposed to be next autumn. You have an annual budget. Therefore, unless Labour wants fuel duty to go up and energy bills to suddenly have VAT on them again, there has to be some kind of fiscal event, some budget-like event before July or an election.

16:24George Osborne: And so the combination of those two things, the sort of short-term measures taken that are time limited and the delay in taking in the big long-term decisions on defence, welfare, tax, spending, has led to quite a lot of speculation that maybe they're setting up a general election for, if not later this year, potentially December, maybe early spring. What do you think? What's your, is that the mood, do you think, in the Labour Party, that everyone's gearing up now for an election?

16:57Ed Balls: I don't feel that that is the mood. And on the hot take, you referred to Andy Burnham and John Healy kind of looking at each other when Kevin Badenock said there's going to be an early election and a bit mystified. And it didn't feel to me. I mean, I totally understand the point you're making about needing another fiscal event next year and the time-limited nature of things. But it didn't feel to me like this was an election platform budget. And I think for three reasons. First of all, if you take your point, there's big, big challenges, big pressures, hard for them to answer them right now when we're in a difficult public finance situation.

17:37Ed Balls: How are you going to pay for defence? How are you going to pay for social care? How are you going to pay for a big boost to growth for the mayors? simply going into an election when you've not answered those questions is actually a bit of a gift to the opposition parties because they just say, well, we know what Andy Burnham wants to do. He set out in his 10-year plan, he set out ambitions, these big expensive goals. And if you vote Labour, you're voting for a tax rise because he's got no other way to pay for it. He's not going to get it from welfare anytime soon. So does Andy Burnham want to fight a tax rises with Labour election.

18:11Ed Balls: That's point one. Point two, think about the big pre-election budgets by incumbent governments, you know, in our time in politics. Norman Lamont, 1992. Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, 2001. U, 2015. Norman Lamont, 10p tax cut. It was seen as a big deal, plus a big boost for NHS spending, launching the election. 2001, Gordon Brown cut the basic rate of income tax, you know, tax cuts with Labour. You in 2015 did the big increase in the personal allowance in that budget, tax cuts with the Conservatives. But also at the same time, there was this big argument. 1992, Norman Lamont, tax cuts with the Conservatives.

18:56Ed Balls: John Smith and Neil Kinnock will raise your taxes, the tax bombshell. In 2001, it was, we've cut the basic rate, but schools and hospitals first, the Tories would cut spending on the NHS and that would be terrible. And then your argument in 2015, we've got a plan, Labour's got no plan, they'll be forced to put your taxes up. Those were big arguments in the budget. So if you think about yesterday's budget, there were measures. There was an argument about Labour, you know, the breathing space hope. But it didn't set out a big argument about the choice. And I don't think at the moment Andy Burnham and John Healy you've established the big choice yet in British politics.

19:37Ed Balls: If you haven't established a choice, how do you fight an election? If you manage to have both Kemi Badenok and the General Secretary of Unison both saying on Budget Day, is that it? You know, what's the ambition? Where's the radicalism from the right and the left? That says to me, you've not yet got to the point where you've established your big argument. And maybe until you've established your big argument, you're not ready for an election. And if you haven't got a big argument, it ends up by default becoming Labour will just raise your taxes. So it doesn't feel to me strategically they are anywhere near that place.

20:09George Osborne: No, I think you're right about this. I mean, sort of thing we can easily be proved utterly wrong when they call an election. But I think there's a big risk to calling an early election. We've had two recent examples, haven't we, in British politics. We've had Theresa May's early election and Boris Johnson's early election. And Theresa May's early election was a fiasco for her because she couldn't define what the election was about, other than increasing her majority, which the British public are not interested in, even if you are as a prime minister. And so it all became about, well, what are the Tories' real plans?

20:44George Osborne: And then the manifesto unravels because some of them are quite unpopular. Boris Johnson does define the question in 2019. It's like, get Brexit done. And, you know, the country needs a way forward after the impasse in the House of Commons. And people could see that. So I just don't think, you know, Burnham at the moment has established what the burning question is that he needs, you know, a mandate for. And for him, it's highly risky. He's already got a massive majority. So why is he kind of risking it? But it does sort of beg the question, OK, but are you even moving in the direction of being able to define what your government is about?

21:20And I still think there's this quite stark dissonance between the rhetoric of Andy Burnham,

21:26George Osborne: the big high soaring rhetoric of ending neoliberalism, a completely different way to run the country. The economic models has broken and failed for communities like his over decades. Quite a lot of mounting evidence of Burnham in number 10, which is a set of small announcements and small things, which they say, you know, make a difference at the margins or give people breathing space to use their own rhetoric. Now the first budget from a Burnham government, which, you know, is a bit, as I was saying yesterday on the hot take, here to stay and gone tomorrow. And as you say, both Unison and Kimi Bainock are saying, well, is that it?

22:03George Osborne: And it's not as if I think like, oh, give them the benefit of the doubt. They're working on the big plans to tear up neoliberalism. I just think that's not happening. I mean, that was the kind of sort of thing that Andy Burnham used to go around saying as mayor of Manchester and get a kind of round of applause from people. He started saying it to win the Maker Fiat by-election, said it to seal the deal on the Labour leadership. In office, next to no evidence of it. Indeed, quite the reverse. the budget in as much as it had things in it were all like tax breaks for entrepreneurs incentives to build data centers you know a retreat from going green on energy stuff does it matter but maybe it doesn't matter maybe no one cares that you know he's saying something over here about the most radical government of 40 years and we've got a um pretty kind of work a day budget maybe that doesn't who cares it could be there isn't the thing though what andy burnham

22:59Ed Balls: has to do. And, you know, it is true, the polling's improved, although it is still way behind where Gordon Brown was in 2007, when he decided it was too risky to call an election. And it's markedly behind the level of support that Theresa May had in 2017, when she went for it, and then ended up blowing her whole majority. So it's kind of quite a risky moment. But if people were saying, at the moment, I feel better off, you know, things are going in the right direction, I don't want to take a risk, then you might roll the dice. But nobody's going to be feeling like that today or in the next six months.

23:40Ed Balls: This was not a budget which said, you know, better off with labour. It said hope for the future. But in the mean, in the short term, it's breathing space, which actually is, you're not going to drown, but you're still treading water in a kind of rather difficult environment. So it's not clear that people are going to feel better off early enough. And what Andy Burnham wants is for people to feel as they did in 2001, as they did in 2005. Actually, I don't want to take a risk on Michael Howard or Ian Duncan Smith or William Hague, because, you know, I'm feeling better off. And then the second thing is you have to shoot the fox of your opponent.

24:18Ed Balls: Kemi Badenock at the moment has a pretty good argument where she says on the one hand, they say they're doing well, but you're worse off, they screwed it up. And then she then says, they just want to put your taxes up again, but I'll cut welfare. Now, at the moment, until Labour has got a credible way of saying, we've done the right welfare cuts, they're not going to do more welfare cuts. In the end, they'll cut your services or put your taxes up until you've got to that point. In 2005, we had the Gershon Review, you remember, to say, we've done billions of efficiency savings. There's no more.

24:52Ed Balls: The Tories will cut the NHS. At the moment, I don't feel as though John Healy and Andy Burnham have done anywhere near enough on the welfare argument to close off Kemi Bainock. And therefore, she can just say, I'll get 50 billion of welfare savings. And at the moment, there was no attempt by John Healy in the budget yesterday to knock down her central argument.

25:12George Osborne: Well, there was next to nothing on welfare, in fact. I mean, apart from confirming the changes to the triple lock pension, there was a bit. I mean, I think if you were being fair to the Treasury, you'd say, first of all, we're not pinning all of our hopes on cost of living. We're only saying it's a breathing space. And there is an emerging growth story here about devolution to mayors, about an investment in AI, and adoption of AI. There was a big package on AI. And the data centers, you know, direction of travel and the budget is very different from what the Democrats, for example, have been saying in the midterm elections, as we'll come on and discuss.

25:44George Osborne: We're trying to get energy bills down to re-industrialize Britain, and we're investing in the British Business Bank. And they would say there's a lot there. But of course, at the moment, the whole is less than the parts, isn't it? And still the kind of global environment anyway overshadows all of that. The problem is on welfare, they're not attempting to defend the welfare state. You see, I think you and Gordon Brown and whatever, when I would come up with like, we're going to freeze tax credits or cut this particular entitlement of cap welfare, you would say that's unfair. That's hitting these people and we defend those people.

26:24George Osborne: And even by 2010, I think that became a stretch for New Labour because the climate had become one of like, welfare's too generous. And there were shows like Benefit Street that were kind of popular at the time that sort of made that point.

26:36Ed Balls: Although the family's tax credit thing did hit you in the 2010 election campaign. I mean, I think you were hurt by that. Potentially is.

26:43George Osborne: But if you look at today, you know, we know Labour tried to cut welfare. They got defeated by their own party. And now you've got a new lot of, you know, well, I say new lot. I mean, John Ely was part of that cabinet, Andy Burnham, new prime minister. They're not really trying to defend the welfare state. There's a lot resting on this Milburn Review and this Tim's Review. The Tim's Review is Stephen Tim's very genial, smart minister. But remember, that was only invented on the hoof as a way to kind of get Labour out of a hole under the Starmer government. And so at the moment, Kemi Bennoff's got a very free range.

27:19George Osborne: And it's interesting in her budget response, which maybe we should just touch on, it was the second year in a row she's done a strong budget response. She doesn't really attempt to sort of pick apart the figures or claim she's read the Red Book. She just repeats her main message, which is, it's the welfare party. They're failing you. Britain is heading in the wrong direction. Debt's going up. They should cut welfare and cut taxes. And there wasn't much in the budget, as I said, on welfare. So it wasn't really a response to that. But it is a central argument. You can imagine if the general election was called tomorrow, you know what Kemi Beidnok would be saying.

27:53George Osborne: It's exactly what she was saying in the Commons. Now, of course, she's not the only person out there. The reform party are hovering in the wings and don't get a big moment on budget day to state their point. But I guess the question to you is, if you don't have an election in the next year, so you let it run to the four or five year parliament, which is more normal, what is the way out of this conundrum they've got themselves into, which is they want to increase defence spending, they need to avoid austerity in non-defence departments at the time of the election. They can't raise the main rates of the big taxes because their manifesto said they couldn't.

28:31George Osborne: They can't raise taxes on business anymore because Rachel Rees has done that and got it was a big backlash. And they can't borrow more. In fact, their headroom on their own fiscal rules is half what it was or greatly reduced on what it was, not quite half. So what is going to happen in the next year? I mean, Alan Milburn, Stephen Timms, Louise Casey, who's doing the social care review. I mean, these people are not going to come up with some amazing answer. If you're sitting in Downing Street or sitting in the Treasury today, what is the path through these things which you have not found or felt able to articulate at this budget, but you will be able to articulate in a few months time?

29:09George Osborne: I mean, it's not obvious to me that there is any answer out there, although they've got one at least. It is interesting that Andy Burnham should choose in the weekend before the budget to, I mean, we assume he chose this.

29:23Ed Balls: We'll talk about this in a moment. But he makes the whole issue, Britain rejoining the European Union. Now, that isn't first and foremost about dealing with a budget gap. It's actually something where you can be radical and bold and it doesn't have an immediate kind of upfront cost in the way that reforming social care does. And that's what he ended up doing at Prime Minister's Questions as well. I mean, I think if you haven't had the big argument about the choice for Britain, then it looks like you're just going to raise people's taxes in an election. But if you just muddle through in the hope that something will turn up and it doesn't, then you end up in a real mess over what's happening to public services at the end of a parliament.

30:06Ed Balls: So I think if you're not going for an early election, you have to have the big argument. and they chose to push the Milburn Review until after the budget. If it was me, I would have had the Milburn Review the day before the budget and then made the budget the big response to the Milburn Review. Here is how we are radically transforming the welfare state, taking forward his reform. Now, it might be the problem is the Milburn Review has an upfront cost and social care has an upfront cost and the growth agenda may have an upfront cost. But if you're not going to do anything radical because it has an upfront cost, what are you going to do?

30:40Ed Balls: So I think, I mean, the alternative is trying to have the big argument about the choice Britain faces. But I think it's very difficult. The problem is the answer.

30:52George Osborne: If you want the election to solve your problem because it releases you from the mandate of the Keir Starmer manifesto, that is what, and the election, it's like, do you want to release the British government from a promise not to raise income tax? Exactly. National insurance and VAT.

31:08Ed Balls: And John Healy doubled down on those promises yesterday in his budget statement.

31:12George Osborne: Now, we should move on to, I guess we'll be talking about this all through the autumn and next year. What about the way this is all being communicated? Let's have a look after the first 100 days of the Burnham Premiership at Andy Burnham's communication style. We're going to talk about that next.

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33:16George Osborne: Welcome back. So the budget's been delivered. And of course, one of the messages as well from this Labour government over the last few months, including under Keir Starmer, was that social media is not all good for you. You shouldn't spend your time, particularly young doom scrolling and the like. But that has not stopped Andy Burnham taking to social media and in particular to TikTok in a, certainly for British politics, I think a first, which is a relaxed and very regular appearance on social media as a way of kind of updating on small things. These aren't sort of on the fly. I mean, they look like on the fly messages, but they're quite carefully curated.

33:58And at the same time, we'll come on to this, he's also been using newspaper interviews and

34:05George Osborne: network television interviews to raise big issues. So he's done the small things on social media and then the big things on kind of mainstream media, if you like. Should we start? We're going to start with social media. I'm sure many of you have seen this, even if you haven't got TikToks, it pops up on various other forms of social media as well, like Instagram and X and so on. Here's a little medley of Burnham's social media clips. What does the distance from London to Singapore have in common with potholes? On their own, some of the small fixes I've announced might not seem like much, but together they all add a talk about one of the most annoying things on.

34:50Can we talk about one of the most annoying things on public transport? My team have set me a challenge to try and fit everything I've done in my first 100 days as Prime Minister in 100 seconds. Ready? Let's do this. Start the clock.

35:03George Osborne: So they were just, he's talking there about, well, fixing potholes, as you might have gathered. He's also talking about not banning, but a new campaign to stop people playing their music loudly on trains. He did a little kind of reprise of all the things he's done in the first 100 days on TikTok. For people who haven't seen them, these are little videos where he turns up, often quite casually dressed, on a train or sort of out and about and just gives you a little kind of thing. Isn't this thing annoying? It's a kind of running commentary on the everyday annoyances in life, which he is fixing as Prime Minister.

35:39George Osborne: And I don't think he pretends or anyone else pretends that these are the big decisions facing the government. Is it an effective strategy? Is it engaging? Is it charismatic? It's certainly, I would say, pretty well done. But there's, I guess, the risk of parody, which I'll come on to. But what do you think, Ed? What do you think of it as a kind of a novel strategy in British politics?

35:59Ed Balls: I think if you are able to do it well, it's a good strategy. and I would not have advised Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak to go anywhere near this but Andy Burnham is good at it and I think it's actually working to his advantage when you get these sort of um po-faced critiques you know he goes on Gogglebox with um Steve Rotherham for Stand Up for Cancer and watches TV programs and has a go at me on Strictly it's fun and it's engaging and I don't think that that means he's not doing the job properly um or you know people say why has he got time to do these social media videos but actually he's reaching an audience who wouldn't otherwise see this stuff and he's raising issues which people nod and say well to be fair to Andy Burnham he's right on that one and on Good Morning Britain on things like car park charging or noise in carriages on trains people really care about it and they get very wound up and we get tons of comments coming into the program and the fact that Andy Burnham is joining that debate look of course if we were at war, you know, directly, you'd have to be careful of the topics you chose.

37:09Ed Balls: But even in a cost of living crisis, people still care about annoying people on trains, not putting the headphones on. And he's raising that. Where I think the media have a more serious point is in the early weeks of him doing the job as prime minister, it's changed slightly as things have gone on. He wasn't going on national television. He wasn't doing interviews with the lobby. He wasn't actually doing press conferences, taking questions. And instead, the way he was communicating was almost exclusively through these social media videos. And the truth is, at a time when some people only get their media from social, their news from social media, one of our great strengths is we do have a regulated broadcast television world.

37:57Ed Balls: And if Andy Burnham decides he's not going to go on national television and answer questions. Does that mean that Nigel Farage doesn't have to go on national television and answer questions either? And part of doing the job is being open to scrutiny. I think that is changing because I think he's been doing more of that kind of media more recently. So if it was only social media, it's a problem. But is him doing it a problem? No, it's working to his advantage.

38:21George Osborne: Okay, but I'm going to slightly take issue here. I agree with you. It'd be mad not to use social media as a modern politician. I mean, utterly mad. Anyone who thinks that the future of British political communication is to carry on just doing the Today programme and the Times interview and not do so, I mean, that would be a crazy strategy. And it's almost a decade since, or more than a decade since Donald Trump used social media to win the presidency for the first time. So of course, you have to use those alternative means of communication that many, many people are now using as their primary source of information.

39:00George Osborne: I guess the question I've got, though, is you could be a very adept user of social media, as he is, but why is he kind of reserving his videos for pretty small issues? I mean, that's me being polite, that for many people, you'd say are well kind of beneath what a prime minister needs to be dealing with. And isn't there a risk? You say the country is not a war, but there is a war going on in Iran that's having a big impact on us. We've got lots of things going on in the world, lots of things going on in the British economy. That it's kind of at least there's a risk that he's going to, I think he wants to sound like he's in touch.

39:35George Osborne: I understand what it's like to listen to music on a train from your neighbor because I sit on trains and I listen to music. I know what it's like to travel on buses, travel on buses. But it's a risk of like, hold on, Prime Minister. I want to hear from you what you're going to do about my taxes and my, you know, spending on the NHS and da, da, da. And I think I thought it was interesting. I saw this from Reform. They put out a parody video on social media comparing Andy Burnham to David Brent, the Ricky Gervais character in The Office. You know, it pains me to say it because it's from Reform. It's quite good.

40:11George Osborne: Listen to this. I'm not going to apologise, Matt, for trying to lead with a bit of levity. If I make him laugh along the way, sue me. Trying to give the country some hope, and that's always my approach. I'm a motivator of people. I excite their imaginations. I'm trying to give the country a lift. I'm a friend first and a boss second. Probably an entertainer third. I mean, in the end, as a premise, you can't avoid being parodied in some way, right?

40:42Ed Balls: I know. And why is that parody so brilliant? because it's sort of, it just takes, you know, David Brent, Vicky Chauvet, takes it over a line and suddenly it's appalling. But actually, you know, slightly on the side of the line. I mean, we've heard it all so many times before.

40:58George Osborne: Yeah, David Brent's genius as a character is that he's sort of every man. He's, you know, he's like everyone's come across. There isn't, there's, I think the, if I was to say, I think the risk for Burnham is it's a bit blokish. It's a bit kind of, there's a lot about pubs and music venues, but then maybe that, you know, Now, that is clearly authentically him. I mean, he loves to be on a football pitch and in a pub and playing his guitar at a gig. Maybe he should pop up and play with you one day. But, you know, that is that's the I guess is the real him. So that's the authentic stuff. What about the should we move on to the big stories that he's also been kind of wading into using not TikTok or Instagram, but the kind of mainstream media?

41:40George Osborne: You know, let's start with, I mean, you know, he had his budget coming up or not his budget, but his chancellor's budget. And he managed to kind of overshadow the entire budget run up from the Treasury, all carefully planned, with, you know, an interview in the Sunday Times. He says, yeah, I'm relaxed about returning to EU free movement of people. And this causes a kind of huge row, but a row that he's walked into. that he was quizzed on your shop, Good Morning Britain, by the A-Team, by Richard Maidley. You know, if you've got a real problem, if you've got a really tough interview, you bring in Richard.

42:18George Osborne: And this is Richard's interview, Richard Maidley's interview with Andy Burnham. Work better. So there's a UK EU summit. You're flying kites. No, there's a summit ahead of us in November. Come on. I mean, watching and listening to what you were saying over the weekend, it was a classic case of somebody testing the water. You're testing the public mood. You're checking to see, and I'm sure you're looking very closely at the reaction that you've had from the public and from the media this morning and over the weekend. You're looking to see if actually this is on, if actually it's on to suggest maybe in the next manifesto that we should rejoin the EU.

42:52I was asked a question, Richard, so I didn't fly that kite. I was asked and I try to give honest answers. I don't think things have worked out as people said they would at the time, particularly when it comes to immigration.

43:08George Osborne: So what do you think? What's the strategy here? I mean, he's he's, you know, sounding off on the biggest issues of the day. Is he kite flying, as your co-host suggests or not?

43:18Ed Balls: So he this was his first live TV interview and Richard and Susanna were pinning him down. and he does have to, in an interview setting, clarify. And, you know, he had to make it clear that he wasn't talking about this parliament in an answer to Susanna. But I think that, you know, the message from him and more widely in Downing Street is he wants to do politics differently. He doesn't want to kind of just have to follow, you know, the strategy in the script. He just wants to kind of give his views and start debates. And I think in some ways it's quite refreshing and in some ways is quite destabilising.

43:55Ed Balls: And it is also not without risks. I mean, this is the Andy Burnham who a year ago, when he was not the leader of the Labour Party, as Mayor of Manchester said, he wanted to rejoin the European Union. Then in the maker field by-election said that was not what he was talking about at all. That was not the priority. I mean, his answer to why he's pushing away the idea of a general election is because people don't want to go and fight the old battles. But at the same time, he is, Ben Riley-Smith in the Sunday Times doing a long interview where he just raises, Well, you know, free movement, rejoin the European Union, maybe we should have a debate about it.

44:28Ed Balls: And the problem is, people think if you're the Prime Minister, especially a British Prime Minister, where you're in charge, you're in control. It's not like Donald Trump, where you can say, well, this was my musing, but actually Congress and the Supreme Court constrain me. I mean, you are, as a British Prime Minister, you have such ability to set the agenda that musing about what the agenda is without being clear is quite destabilising. Not least because there will be times where people need him in a moment of crisis to say very clearly, this is what I think, this is what I must do. If your reputation is, well, you tend to sound off and muse and fly kites and just see how that one lands.

45:12Ed Balls: At the time when you need people to take you seriously, do they take you seriously enough? So in some ways, I'm slightly more worried about the kite flying strategy than I am social media. I mean, on the Europe stuff, I think to myself, is this really his plan? Does he actually want a second referendum? Does he really want to reopen free movement, which he was impactably against back in 2010 in the Labour leadership election? And people say to me, well, you know, this is just Andy. He just wants to have a debate. I'm not sure if you can do that as a prime minister and retain the ability in key moments then to lead with decisiveness.

45:47George Osborne: You see, I'm less sceptical about this. I think the days of kind of Alistair Campbell drafted soundbites that were delivered by the kind of New Labour apparatchiks in the ministry, you know, those days are gone. I mean, it was all start, you know, I mean, who knows when political communication really started, maybe back in ancient Greece or whatever. But, you know, the modern age, which was Bill Clinton, spin doctors, adopted by New Labour. Certainly, you know, the Cameron operation was very professional. We delivered the message. That has all been completely disrupted by the social media we were talking about earlier.

46:22George Osborne: And there have been very successful, you might not like them, but very successful politicians who kind of freestyle, like as you mentioned Donald Trump, arguably Boris Johnson as well got very far with that approach too. And isn't Andy Burnham trying to be that this is, you know, this is me. It's not solely my decision about whether we rejoin the EU, but I want to have that debate. I guess the EU, if you took the EU out of the equation, it's such a big and kind of explosive issue and has dominated British politics for over a decade. Everything else he's sort of doing, kind of freewheeling about like social care you know wouldn't it be great if we had a national social care system you know we just had a budget nothing happened in the budget to make that actually happen does that matter i mean politically it might matter over a number of years we'll say we've said all these things and nothing's happened but it's still very early days and and people you know i think you know in terms of his kind of trust ratings and i i actually think he's more at risk of being parodied for the small things in the face of big storms than the kind of freewheeling about the bigger things.

47:25George Osborne: And if I were him, I'd combine the two. I'd do more on social media about the bigger issues, which he's got opinions on, and maybe kind of dial down a bit the kind of, the modern Cohn's hotline, you know. For those who don't know, Cohn's hotline was John Major's attempt to show he was in touch.

47:42Ed Balls: So let me replay this to you. This is from the Ben Reilly Smith, very long interview Andy Burnham did. And that's where the free movement line comes from in the Sunday Times. But he says in the interview that authenticity is important for Andy Burnham. Understand that. He says in 2015, he thinks that he suffered from the curse of the frontrunner, the David Miliband thing. And he said that he was too clouded in his judgment and overcautious because of outside voices and his advisors. and that's why he said things which then got him into trouble in 2015 but those days are gone he says because um the hammer blow of defeat taught him not to ignore his hunches i have powerful instincts and i trust them now now i think it's really important in politics to to listen to your instinctive reactions and i think one of the things you have to train yourself to in politics is when you feel uneasy or queasy, it's always important not to ignore that, because often that is you telling yourself, your subconscious saying, be careful that this is not without risks.

48:56Ed Balls: Do you know why this is a problem? And if you're bullish and you don't listen to yourself, you get into trouble. On the other hand, instincts are fine, but you also need to have evidence and a philosophy and an analysis and a plan and to take people with you. And if you are a prime minister who says things because it's just how I instinctively feel, even if it contradicts what you said three months ago, and even if it's not what you told your cabinet the day before, or what you said five years ago, or what you want to say in another realm tomorrow, the danger is people start to think, well, actually, these instincts, I mean, are they coherent?

49:39Ed Balls: And is he really governing the country based upon instinct? Because actually, the Prime Minister's job is too important for that. I'm not saying ignore your instincts, but I'm saying if your instincts drive your communication, then that has dangers as a leader who people have to rely upon. And I'm talking about members of the cabinet or members of his party or members of the country have to rely upon consistency and purpose and can't just be hunches.

50:09George Osborne: Well, you know, I spent last week travelling through Germany, Switzerland, and then to Paris, as we discussed. And the only question anyone wanted to ask me among the various kind of government people I met was, is he serious about rejoining the EU? So it's not just the country who's...

50:25Ed Balls: And what did you say? See, I'm not sure if I know the answer to that question. I'm not sure. I mean, my question is, is Andy Burnham, does Andy Burnham know the answer to that question? Is he actually serious about having a manifesto for rejoin?

50:39George Osborne: I don't think he sees much downside in doing what Richard Madeley describes as kite flying at the moment.

50:44Ed Balls: Good. But George, you were never a kite flyer. David Cameron wasn't a kite flyer. When you did things which are surprising, they'd been heavily thought through and you took people with you and you unfolded a plan. I mean, David Cameron didn't just suddenly say the environment. Well, actually, maybe we should do something about it. You didn't suddenly say, well, actually, public spending, well, maybe we should cut it. It was very carefully and deliberatively strategic. And is instinct consistent with strategy or does it become an underminer of it? That's my only question here, which kind of goes to the question about what people think about Andy Burnham.

51:21Ed Balls: If this is actually his plan and it's going to unfold, well, that's fascinating and really interesting. but if it's not a strategy it's a vibe and an instinct and a muse doesn't have risks in the

51:35George Osborne: way in which you then also try and lead well yes is the short answer but maybe but i'm just saying that you know the media age has changed and and i'm not saying you know those ultra disciplined politicians of the past myself included were necessarily right or certainly it wouldn't necessarily work today i mean talking about that we should tell we we've got we've got to turn to one other topic, haven't we, today, which is talking about the king of vibes, Donald Trump, who says all sorts of things all the time, not least when it's election time and in election rallies across America. He's got the midterms next week, and we're going to touch briefly on those elections and what they might mean for the world after this.

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54:44Ed Balls: So welcome back. And we've talked about this on our podcast a lot over the last few years, but also the last few weeks. The midterms are upon us. And by the time we get to our next main episode, we will know whether Donald Trump has once again defined expectations, got out the Republican vote in a way that nobody expected. And in fact, is going to storm the second half of his term or whether he is, in fact, a lame duck. Because the Democrats are now in a position where if they don't take the House and the Senate, they're going to be disappointed. Even though six months ago, you thought taking the Senate would have been pretty much impossible.

55:23Ed Balls: Republicans are gloomy, moving their money and their campaign to try and shore up their, what would always have been seen as solid red Republican bases. It's a rerun of the 2024 presidential election, except for now, Donald Trump is the one saying inflation, cost of living, isn't such a big deal. And it's the Democrats who are completely storming the cost of living argument. And while all these Republican candidates are all in crisis, Donald Trump is still going to rallies and saying, what's the problem? We don't have inflation and tariffs don't cause inflation. You know what they cause? Wealth.

56:00George Osborne: Yes. I mean, you're right. It's I guess, first of all, it's not unusual for a president to lose the midterms. In fact, that almost always happens. And the only kind of recent examples where there's a kind of real buck of the trend was, well, George W. Bush won the midterms after 9-11, but that was very special. Bill Clinton actually won the midterms in his second term, which is, you know, what we're kind of closest parallel to this, after the Republicans attempted to impeach him over the Monarch Lewinsky scandal and was seen to have sort of overreached and sort of touched on issues that were irrelevant to ordinary Americans.

56:39George Osborne: So normally you would expect to lose. I guess it's the power of the kind of Trump grip on American political, on the American political imagination. People sort of assumed he might win. And I think it was a kind of commentary also on where the Democrats were felt to be, which was sort of hopelessly out of touch, too elitist, hadn't connected working America, you know, despite being the kind of blue collar party. that people thought, oh, well, you know, maybe Trump will defy gravity again. Anyway, gravity has hit or appears to be hitting. And what's gone from, as you say, a race in which he was always probably going to lose the House now looks like a race where he's going to lose the Senate.

57:17George Osborne: And that's key because that opens up, well, first of all, you can't get anything done in Congress. It opens up all sorts of potential investigations into him, his family, his business associates. And if the Senate goes, he also can't get anyone confirmed into positions of authority in the administration. However, all that happens, despite all these characters, and we previewed some of them on an earlier episode of this podcast, that the kind of central media drama this week has not been in the various states, which are closely contested like Maine or Michigan or Texas or now Iowa, very red state.

57:54George Osborne: But actually a clash of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. So Barack Obama, I guess because Joe Biden is beyond campaigning. He's come out. And this is a great exchange, which doesn't really speak to the cost of living crisis facing ordinary Americans, but has proved very entertaining. Have a listen. Does anybody really think this guy is spending that much time thinking deeply on these issues? I don't know if you've noticed, but he is very focused on home renovation. And then there is just gold everywhere. What's up with the gold?

58:37I mean, he's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a cheesecake factory. It's just gold everywhere. Spends a lot of his time fixing up the White House. Isn't that a nice thing to do? He said, this isn't a cheesecake factory. Can you believe it? Which is a very successful company. This isn't, he doesn't like successful companies, but you know, he was very critical about me because I spend time. And if you would have seen the White House, I took over the White House and it was in horrible condition.

59:11Ed Balls: I think this is actually interesting and significant because there's been a few dimensions in which politics has shifted in the last couple of years. And I think Barack Obama is onto something here. I mean, it's shifted, by the way, because, you know, at the 2024 election, Joe Rogan backing Trump, young men on his side. I mean, that has been shifting. Joe Rogan has actually been rather positive about the Democrat candidate down in Texas. Back in 2024, Hispanic voters had gone to Trump from the Democrats. They've come back, people under pressure, financially often, in their lives. But the other thing is, I remember back in, when I did the Trumpland documentaries in 2017-18, people saying about -

1:00:00George Osborne: Did you go to Cheesecake Factory?

1:00:02Ed Balls: No, but I'm going to make a serious point about the Cheesecake Factory. You should explain to me what it is. Well, I've no idea. I'll let you explain that in a second. Let me make this point, and then you tell me why it's important. The people would say about Trump, the great thing about Trump is that he's not in it for the money. He's already rich. He can be on our side because he's not in that Washington swamp. He's not like Obama just after the money, you know, on the make. And that was his big advantage. And the thing which has shifted since actually the 24 election in the last couple of years, all the polls say this.

1:00:39Ed Balls: And there were some Democrats actually got onto this really early, and Barack Obama is now reflecting this more widely, that actually the question of Donald Trump and his family self-aggrandising, using office for their personal benefit, has become a much more powerful political argument for the Democrats than was the case two years ago. And the White House refurb is just one small example, but you could say the Same about Trump bitcoins or whatever they're called. I mean, his standing on this issue has shifted.

1:01:13George Osborne: Yes, and we highlighted the candidate in Georgia, the Democrat candidate in Georgia, John Ossoff, who's been the most effective at linking the cost for ordinary Americans of Trump's policies and the enrichment, the alleged enrichment of people around Trump. No, I think Obama was doing something a little bit different from, Ossoff was trying to make a very serious sort of political point. But what Obama was doing, which Trump hated, was ridiculing him, wasn't he? He was comparing, the Cheesecake Factory is basically a chain of restaurants, which the clues in the title, you can get all sorts of different types of cheesecake for your dessert, but you can get quite fancy salads and the like before you get onto your cheesecake.

1:01:57George Osborne: And he was also deliberately saying, you know, Saddam Hussein, partly because Donald Trump always calls him Barack Hussein Obama. And that's the kind of risk for Trump, isn't it? That he's being kind of ridiculed for these renovations. Whereas I think the odd thing about Trump with the White House and the redesigning of Washington and the gold in the Oval Office is that's as authentic Trump as you can get. I think he really does think the White House is a dump. I remember him saying to someone who then told me, a kind of Wall Street financier, when this was during his first term, the Wall Street financier said to him, Donald, what's it like, Mr.

1:02:32George Osborne: President, what's it like being in the White House? And he says, oh, the place is a dump. My house is way better, way grander. Wait, none of the bathrooms work. There's the leaks in the roof. That's why I want to go home. And that's the one thing he knows about is property development. But he's now being, I know, ridiculed by Obama for it. And I guess the risk, isn't it? I mean, there's a sort of plus and a minus of the potential result. And who knows how Americans will actually vote next week. I think if you were a sort of Democrat, the risk, I mean, the opportunity is obvious. You captured the Senate and the House of Representatives, and you stopped the Trump presidency doing some of its most dangerous things.

1:03:10George Osborne: The risk is you suddenly are responsible. And the Republican candidate in a couple of years time actually finds it easier to run against a Democrat do nothing Congress for two years than to try and be Donald Trump's successor. So that's the kind of risk for Democrats. And they get kind of sidetracked into a whole load of impeachments and kind of investigations, which Americans don't think are relevant to them. And then I guess the risk for the Republicans is, you know, the flip side of that, that those investigations do start to uncover things and they can't get out from underneath the kind of Trump legacy.

1:03:44George Osborne: He's such a big figure that as his presidency comes to an end, there's sort of nothing growing beneath the canopy tree. And so it's kind of fascinating. I'll tell you one thing. If I was running for president as a Republican candidate, I wouldn't be too disappointed if the Democrats took control of the Congress this time. It just gives me something to run against rather than trying to be, you know, the third term of the Trump presidency.

1:04:11Ed Balls: Look, you are definitely right. The thing I was saying about that Obama-Trump exchange is that normally satire and ridicule have a hard edge. And actually what Obama is doing is saying, what does Donald Trump care about? What are his priorities? He cares more about the White House and there being gold everywhere than the cost of living and the prices you're paying. And that is a problem for Trump. So I think Obama is doing both things at the same time. But I'm sure you're right that Trump will hate the ridicule. But what he'll enjoy is going back into opposition, because he's always more comfortable being able to rail against the establishment than actually being in charge.

1:04:53Ed Balls: So I think he'll probably have a better two years, although whether he will be able to launch more broadsides against Iran, if it turns out he doesn't have the Congress supporting him. Of course, it could be. you mentioned Michigan, you mentioned Maine, you know, it could be the Democrats have some disappointments. It could be that they don't do as well. It could be messy. On the other hand, we may also see in some of these governor elections and Senate elections, potential candidates emerging who will be fighting the next presidential election. So always fascinating to watch.

1:05:29George Osborne: I do say there is widely predicted in private and this, of course, speculation makes its way into the public, that there will be a very aggressive military campaign or resumption of the military campaign against Iran the moment polling is over from Trump, that he's sort of held off because the war is so unpopular, the cost of living issues are so painful for him in these midterm elections, but that it'll be kind of all-out attack on Iran afterwards. Not that that worked, whatever it was, six months ago. That is the speculation.

1:06:02Ed Balls: But all that attack from a potentially weakened American president with Congress not on his side in partnership with an Israeli prime minister who has been urging this attack. But on the basis of this Israeli election result, I mean, it's not clear when Israel is going to have an effective functioning government. But so if that's how things transpire, it's certainly going to add to the turbulence and the instability. Let's just say that. Goodness me.

1:06:31George Osborne: And in our EMQs episode, we'll touch on the latest campaign ads from potential Governor of California, Steve Hilton.

1:06:39Ed Balls: No one has done more to back the Hilton campaign than George Osborne. And we'll give him one more showing, although I fear it may not be enough to save him. That is it for this week's episode of Political Currency.

1:06:51George Osborne: Make sure to check out the show notes, see how you can become a kitchen cabinet or a gold subscriber. Get your EMQs early, all sorts of other perks.

1:06:58Ed Balls: join us on Monday for EMQs Ex-Ministers Questions which you can also get early if you're a Gold or Kitchen Cabinet member and we love your questions questions at politicalcurrency.co.uk go on YouTube to the comments you can any social media I mean look like Andy Burnham Balls and Osborne we are the TikTok podcasters and we are very happy to get your comments in any way you want including by more modern means and snail mail email in the meantime we'll see you on Monday for EMQs See you then.

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