#1001 - Is This a Refreshing Market Pause? | With Dale Pinkert

0:08Is this the pause that refreshes? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. With me today is Dale Pinkert, trading coach at TradeGate Hub. Hey, Dale. It's great to see you. Hi, Maggie. Great to be with you as well. So we had stocks pull back from their record levels. Not huge losses, but about a quarter of a percent on the NASDAQ to about a little less than a half on the Dow. We saw the dollar soften a bit. In both cases, we're sort of wondering if this is, it feels like just a pause or there's something more here. So why don't we walk through some of the charts that you're looking at and maybe let's start with the dollar.

0:47What are you seeing there? Okay. Well, last time I was on with Ash, a big number for me was 103.80. So if you see that first dot there, once we took out 103.80, we went directly to 102.30 within three days. and that turned out not to be the breakdown. And I'm really happy that I teach people to take partial profits. And in fact, I was talking to Jack Schwager, the author of the Market Wizard series, and he talks about the fact that if you do not take partial profits, you're counting on the probability that you're 100 % right, which is the exception rather than the rule and you're not going to get paid.

1:35In fact, he's friends with Peter Brandt. And Peter's style is when he gets a signal is to take quick profits and then to move a stop to BE. Does that sound familiar? Yeah. Okay, so, you know, Peter's a great trader. And the key is to take risk out of the trade as soon as possible. And that's how you do it. You know, you get to move your way 100 points, 150. I don't care what the instrument is. You take something off and then from your entry, whatever the reason was, you pull your stop to BE and let it ride. And perhaps you put more on if there's a bounce or you just sit with what you have, which is what I'm doing with alongside the dollar right now.

2:21I did reverse. I sold the British pound last week because that moved to 129 to me was a false breakdown. Got short after the Fed rally. Everything rallied after the Fed. at about 127.80, looking for under 124, about 123.5. So I think there's one more good burst in the dollar. And if we go up over the next week and a half, two weeks, I believe that both the dollar and the sun will eclipse around the same time. I should have known that you had that solar eclipse on your radar. I know all you traders pay attention to stuff like that. Well, you know, I've never seen people so, the general public so excited about it.

3:06I mean, they're promoting this like crazy. People are going to have parties. I mean, listen. They're traveling. I mean, I'm convinced that any good excuse and we're all going to rally up for a party. Let's be real. You know, we're going to go right from March Madness, right into the eclipse of the sun. Bonnie Raider, whatever her name is, is going to get some more royalties, you know, on that. Maybe you'll get even serenade us with it. I mean, we have to. I bought glasses. I don't think I'm anywhere near the total path, the path of totality, as they're calling it. Yeah, right. But, you know, who knows?

3:40Maybe I'll jump in my car. You know, let me just, I know it sounds a little bit kooky, but I have actually witnessed a dollar peak many years ago. I was summering in Carlsbad, and we had a total eclipse, and that was the high of the dollar. So I've never forgotten that. And I've seen many turning points around the eclipses. In fact, if you go back to last October, I'm not sure about the order. I think last time we had the solar eclipse first and then the lunar eclipse, but the low in late October was made on one of those eclipses in the market and went straight up from there. So go back to your charts and look at the, you know, the setup there with the eclipses.

4:25This time it's a little different that we're having, I think, that we had a partial lunar today and then the solar on the nine. So it's very possible that you get some nice turns into this eclipse. Listen, I don't discount anything. I wonder if you're listening, or I don't know if you could put a poll up, but I wonder if any of you have seen a total eclipse of the sun, if you've witnessed one. So you were in Carlsbad, Rowan, summer in Carlsbad. I saw one from the Welsh Sea. I drove from London at the last minute. Actually, I got a lift. Thanks, Matt. Drove all the way across the UK with a million other lunatics to see the Tuller.

5:09But it was wild, I will say. The birds all run from it. It's kind of spooky. It's kind of surreal. I actually prefer the lunar. Do you have that experience? I prefer the lunar eclipses because then I could put some Pink Floyd on the top side of the moon. You strike me as a night owl, as some sort of night dweller. Well, people call me a lunar chick, Maggie. All right? By the way, Christopher is saying lunar eclipse today. So very interesting. Anyway, let us know if you've seen one or you're planning to partake. Maybe we'll have to. Listen, we just had a party for our 1 ,000th anniversary. Maybe we'll have to have a party.

5:46Oh, congratulations. Thank you. 1 ,000th broadcast. Yeah. Episode of the daily briefing of the daily briefing. But we were we were doing an event anyway. So we decided to combine them all. But maybe we'll have to have an eclipse party. Brian, Nick, let's get on it. We got to do something. But very seriously, Dale, I want to go I want to go through your levels and kind of make your way around the markets. But I but I do want to bring up something. We have a little compilation. You talking about taking money off and the strategy around how to trade is so important. and we've heard that from you before.

6:19It's such sage advice, as many of the people in the chat are commenting on. And it also echoes so much of what we heard. So on Friday, we had a day of workshops and they were about all different kinds of things. We did an option one, we did retirement, we did crypto. And the one consistent across them all, one message that, you know, not in any sort of planned way, but came up from all of the people who were hosting the workshops was the need for discipline. Let's have a listen and we'll talk on the other side. Okay. So, you know, it's just finding the balance of what matters to you, where you are in your personal journey.

6:56Have you kind of got the assets that you want to retire with? You might have the assets like a house or a couple of houses, but you may not have the capital. Okay, now, so that's the focus is like, okay, how do I get enough capital to make sure I've got enough money to spend? Because nobody wants to run out of money when they're 80 years old. that is a disaster unless you've done really well and your kids have done better than you if not it's actually it's that's that's the horror for for anybody like if you get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage when you're 35 years old you're going to be 65 by the time you pay it off like that's very far in the future but also like if you get a seven percent mortgage like on on a $400 ,000 loan, you're going to be paying like$900 ,000 in interest.

7:44So I look at this from the standpoint of not just what is the interest rate you're paying, but what is the dollar spent in interest, right? And most of that interest is front loaded, as you know. If you're going to make your first investment into crypto, you've got to think about your security protocol first. Understand wallets, understand hardware, hardware wallets, especially keep very little in your hot wallet. If you own Bitcoin, there are multi-sig solutions out there, which are a great bridge for those that need that extra assurance around their stack. That's really first and foremost. People that lose money in options or in stock lose it for several reasons.

8:30Discipline is, of course, the big reason, but maybe they're very disciplined at cutting their losses, but they don't take their profits. Or conversely, they take their profits really well and they do that layering and all the rest that Pete was discussing, but they let the losers run. You can't eat like a bird and shit like an elephant. So you cannot make money, make money, make money and then lose a huge amount on one that doesn't work. Hey everyone, we're gonna take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

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10:57Invest in something you can hold. Go to noblegoldinvestments.com slash vision to get started. Don't wait. That's noblegoldinvestments.com slash vision. John Najarian had us dying laughing with that phrase. You can see that they were great, great conversations. You can see those workshops in full on our website. If you're plus and above, if you haven't subscribed to real vision and you're only watching on YouTube and, or you are thinking about upgrading, I think that 14 days for a dollar special is still on. I don't think they've taken the link down yet. So get in there and take advantage of it.

11:36Otherwise you'll have to wait to the next one, but don't tell them. we told you that it's still up. Anyway, Dale, so I think this is so interesting that you're talking about this and that a lot of the people who are on Friday were talking about this because we're sitting at, so let's just talk about equities for a moment. We're sitting at these record levels. We've seen the enormous gains in some of these chip stocks and tech stocks. Actually, if you look at crypto also, if you were lucky enough to be in Solana or Bitcoin, You see these enormous gains and a lot of people are grappling. What do I do here?

12:10Right. So stocks today taking a little pause and right away, everyone's like, is it over? Is the rally turning over? Should I cash out? Like what's your do you have a rule of thumb? Generally, I know you were just referencing it with the dollar before where you're sort of always taking a little bit off and keeping your powder dry. How do you how do you maintain that discipline? Through technical action, technical objectives, pattern recognition, and just knowing it's not a profit till you take it. And, you know, as far as, you know, knowing what to do by the time you're 80, it reminds me of the expression, man plans and God laughs.

12:51Yeah. So do the right thing today, do the right things today, and tomorrow takes care of itself. Of course, you can do some long-term planning, but I'd like to know if anyone knows what kind of currency we'll be using in the next 10 years. That's exactly right. That's what Brau was saying. Listen, I can only see out a certain amount, and then the changes are going to be so massive that it's hard to wrap your head around. So that is a fantastic thing. I'm a believer in the fourth turning. So I think we're going to go through a lot of different changes. Because it's never been more difficult in our country, in our world, probably in well over a century or two to plan long term.

13:33Yeah, it's so true. And it causes a lot of stress for everyone, by the way. But at least you can deal with the here and now and try to be smart about that. You don't know if you have faith till you need it. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I feel like a lot of people feel like they need it right now. because a lot of people feel like they're out of crossroads and there's a lot of stress. And we will be bringing Denise and those folks back as well because that's, you know, trying to deal with that side of the equation is sometimes as important. So let's get back to the chart. So you're looking at euro dollar and you think we've got one more.

14:07Now, do you think the dollar strengthens across the board one more time? Or is it depending on the cross you're looking at? Well, certain crosses. I mean, the peso has been so strong, it's hardly weakened. So, you know, the peso may get a little bit of a pop. Maybe it happens with a little bit of risk aversion. But you're right. You know, it's not just broad-based. There are other currencies that the Canadian commodity currencies that are, you know, have held up well during dollar rallies. So, but when you talk about the dollar, you really have, you're really, Dixie, you're talking about the euro because it's 60 % of the contract, I believe.

14:47Yeah. And, you know, most people are pretty negative. There are still a lot of people looking for under parity. And I think we're going to see whether they're right or wrong within the next few weeks or so. I'm a believer that this buy spot that I have around$1.06, if you put up the chart, that's$78.6 back, and I'll be wrong under$1.04 and a half. But it has potential, should we get back above 111, which I think it will, to trade towards 120. So I'm a dollar bull and a dollar bear. Once a euro bull, dollar bear, pound I like, Aussie around 63.50. I think that these are very important turning points that are coming up here in the currency.

15:38We've already had the turn in the metals, and we should get a pullback. That may be the last bus stop. Even the miners have put on a pretty good show in the last five weeks. I said last year the low would come in this year. It happened that Friday. I think it was March 1st. It may have been that day. It was on a Friday, a turn. And gold's at new record highs. I'm looking for a pullback there. Silver lagging. But I have a target of about, if you take the low of COVID, about 12, and we went from 12 to about 30, and we've been moving sideways for a while. We get close, it's over 26. You could tack on 16.

16:26It's going to give you$42 for an initial target in silver. So, and, you know, people feel late if they don't buy bottoms of things. So when I was on last time, I showed the GDX, and my target was 24.60 for months, and it got down to 25 even. I said, put half on. That was a theory then. So we've already had a nice rally. So buying a pullback, even if you miss this first wave, is a better trade than when I was bottom picking it. Because we have a bottom, a frame of reference to be wrong against. It's already performed. It's already shown its hand. Rather than back there in early March, it could have gone to 22 in the GTX.

17:15But now we had the turn, and now you look to buy pullbacks there. That's a great way to look at it because I think people feel like, oh, I missed it. I used to. I used to. But if you're not smart enough to buy the bottom, you're not smart enough to sell the top. If this is embryonic and it's going to be a two, three-year move, which I believe it's going to be, there's going to be a lot of commodity pressure, especially if my forecast on the dollar is correct. So it's embryonic, actually. So you're not late, okay? In fact, you would now have, instead of being right on time, now you have confirmation.

17:57Yeah. So it's better to have something confirmed than have it be a theory before it is confirmed. So do you think both gold and silver rally? Do you prefer one over the other? Yeah, I think that silver is going to eventually outperform the gold-silver ratio. It might make a run towards 90-92 during this correction. but I think 40 is a range I remember from my earlier days in the business. And I know guys that are looking for under 30. So that means immense outperformance of silver over gold.

18:40Now, we have a question. So I was just wondering, we were talking about the dollar before. So you see, just so we've got this right, you see it's a little weak today. you see one more run, but then you, then you're a dollar bear after that. Yeah. I'm going to be attempting shorts right around the one Oh six and it's in the Dixie. Um, and right around, isn't that coincidental? It's going to be one Oh six in the Euro. Uh, I didn't think about that till now. I actually 78%, 78, six is one Oh five 95. Um, Aussie around 63 and a half. And I expect them to be long-term lows. And, you know, you still have to know where you're wrong.

19:24I'm wrong if we take out the 104 and a half low in the euro and take out the 62 low, a generational low, I think, in the Aussie. And then the dollar index that high that we had, I don't know, six, eight months ago, 107.30, we get above that. Then I have to do a rethink. I'm wrong. So those are my points that before I take the trade, any trade, right away, there's three things you have to know. Why am I doing it? What's the technical reason? Where am I wrong? And what am I looking for when I'm right? And you have to answer all those questions before you take the trade. And, you know, I've done a few videos and my best work, like my short for the pound that happened on a Thursday was planned the prior weekend.

20:18Okay, so with levels that I would be short if the Fed was dovish, where I would ideally want to sell it. So my best work really is done on the weekend. And that way, when the market's moving and you're emotional and you see a Fed decision or a big move after a presser, you're not analyzing the market at that point. You're executing because you're prepped. You're ready. So that's what I try and do for people is prepare them so they don't become an impulse trader. That is the worst way to trade is on an impulse. I don't care if it's FOMO, whatever it is. If you don't have a plan, you're planning your destruction.

21:03It sounds very severe, but it is very much true. And that's why the best of you always talk about having that framework to look at. Ralph, that answers your question about the Aussie dollar. John is asking, this is a great question. So Dale, so the dollar is rallying at the same time as stocks, crypto, gold. Expect a mania for all assets. So if long term you expect the dollar to fall, then you do you expect the, I think he's saying equal action on the other side. So if you're a dollar bear, does that mean you think other assets are also going to move lower? No, higher. So a lower dollar, you're long the world.

21:45A higher dollar, and he's right in pointing it out, the market's held up well with a strong dollar. But my preferred sector with a weak dollar are going to be commodity-related stocks. Not Apple, okay? not mega cap tech. It's going to be maybe industrials, but for sure commodity related stocks, fertilizer, miners, energy perhaps. So, you know, the dollar is going to have more impact on commodities than it's definitely not going to be bullish for the bond market because if the currency that your bond is denominated in is declining, buyers are going to want a higher interest rate to take the risk to hold an instrument that is based on the depreciating currency vis-a-vis Turkey.

22:46We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily briefing. You've heard the headlines. Inflation is unchecked. The dollar is collapsing. The government is printing too much money. The fear is real, but there is a solution. Gold. The government can't print more gold. Gold isn't collapsing. And gold's value increases during inflationary times. Noble Gold Investments is here to help you protect your wealth. Noble Gold Investments is the gold IRA company that Americans trust. The founders of Noble Gold have more than 20 years of combined experience in buying gold and silver.

23:26They've secured more than $1 billion in precious metals for their clients. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the game, Noble Gold Investments simplifies and secures your gold investment journey. Choose between a tax-advantaged gold IRA or have physical gold delivered to your door. Noble Gold Investments ensures a seamless and easy transaction. Invest in something you can hold. Go to noblegoldinvestments.com slash vision to get started. Don't wait. That's noblegoldinvestments.com slash vision. You mentioned Apple. I know you were negative. You had been looking for Apple to pull back and you've been right about that.

24:11It's been a pretty ugly chart. Do you think it's going to continue to move in that direction or is there some support here somewhere for Apple? You know, if the market could rally into month-end, you know, if they tack on another couple hundred pips on the S &P, it could rally. But if you look at the chart, last time when I was on with Ash, I talked about Apple, and we hadn't broken down yet. We were holding 180, 180. And since that time, we've traded as low as 168. and last week rallied back to fill a weekly gap at 78. And as long as we're under 180, I've been talking 160 for a while. But on the chart, you could see the potential for 56 to 42.

24:57And I think, you know, eventually that we could even see 120 Apple, 115. Wow. That's a big drop. Yeah, but I'll be going the door between 160 and 156. I do think that wherever the market is, if we're peaking now, I'm talking NASDAQ really struggled to make a new high. It may make another high, but the S &Ps were outperforming NASDAQ for about a week and a half. It took a lot of S &P strength to finally get a new high in NASDAQ. And the divergences have been going on for about five months. And I think that NASDAQ could take a breather, maybe like you said, and back to like 16 ,000 S &Ps, back to five.

25:5148 would be natural, 4 ,800, that's a breakout. And then stage another rally into late summer, fall. Interesting. Interesting. So Mondi is asking, what's your take on natural gas? It's oversold. So Mondi has an opinion. Yeah. You know what? You still have to wait for a signal or wait for a key reversal. I remember talking about it when it was three and two, and I said, wait for a key reversal. And I didn't wait. I probed it. It didn't work. But there still has not been one key reversal all the way down. Okay. So that's when, especially if it does a weekly key reversal where you take out the prior days or weeks low and then take out the prior days or weeks high and close there.

26:50Because, you know, I was talking to Peter Buchvar and he's keeping an eye on the rig counts and they're coming down pretty hard. Rick counts are coming down. You're at historic lows. The widow maker has, you know, so many widows out there looking for someone to go out with on Saturday night that maybe it's time for a turn. And I'm hiding out. So I told you that last time. But, yeah, I think it's smart to be looking for a bottom, but price is king unless you do it with options. and anything you put into an option, you write it off when you buy it and buy time and don't be a hero with your strike price.

27:35I think these are attractive levels. Oliver's saying people torture themselves on that gas. That's why they call it the Widowmaker for a reason. But that's a great tip on the options play, by the way. And you know, all of you, if you need a refresher want to sort of, you know, just take some notes as you prepare that. You can go to Imran's stuff in the Academy, as well as the workshop we just did on Friday. You know, Maggie, options are like relationships. 90 % of them expire worthless. That's why they're so hard, both of them. That's why when you find the right one, it's such a big payoff. I love it.

28:19So what about crypto? We have a question about ETH. Boy, we've seen some big moves here. We got Bitcoin up above 70 ,000 again today. Looks like it wants another new high. I can't buy it here and I won't sell it here. So it's a no trade for me. If we get a risk off play in S &Ps, I don't think if liquidity, financial conditions tighten, which isn't really my forecast if the dollar is going to just have one more run. But if I'm wrong and some of the milkshake guys about the dollar are talking$120 in the dollar,$140 in the dollar, that will affect Bitcoin. But my dream entry would be$40K. Whether it happens or not, I know what I'll do if it gets there.

29:17But, you know, it's a very ambitious call to be talking about 40K Bitcoin. But anything can happen. Yeah, as everyone warns, these can still be volatile asset classes. By the way, I just want to not, this is not in terms of technicals, because Jamie did a great workshop on that. But if you want just a refresher on the state of the market, the state of what's happening from a kind of 30 ,000 level point of view, we had a great, I had a great conversation with Kevin Kelly on Friday, if you missed the daily briefing. And then we went on to have a great one with Kevin and Sergio. But some really good thoughts about, and I think it's a great time because we're kind of focused on the price action because so much is going on.