#1006 - Is Crypto Leading the Market Lower? | with Tony Greer

0:00Kraken Pro is the powerful crypto platform for experienced traders who demand the best. With advanced charts, real-time market analytics, and lightning-fast trade execution, Kraken Pro empowers you to trade your way. Customize your setup and make every pixel count by rearranging and stacking trading modules in a way that makes sense to you. On Kraken Pro, you have the freedom to put your favorite market analytics and execution tools exactly where you need them. And whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, Kraken Pro has everything you need to navigate over 210 plus assets with confidence.

0:38Join the thousands of seasoned traders who trust Kraken Pro. Visit realvision.com slash Kraken Pro.

0:54Is crypto leading the market lower? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. I'm Maggie Lake. With me today is Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator. Hey there, Tony. What's up, Maggie? How are you doing today? I'm okay. It's so rainy. I don't know if anybody is in the Northeast, but it has just been torrential for days, and it's not going to stop. So you need a bigger boat, Tony. Yeah, we do, for sure. So it's kind of like torrential out. It's a little bit volatile in the markets, too. We have everybody really keen to hear your thoughts today, I think, because we're seeing things move.

1:29And I just said to you, I know you love that right when we were coming on air. So we see selling in US stocks, bonds, bond prices lower, yields higher, Bitcoin and ETH are sharply lower, but gold is up and oil is up. What do you make of what you're seeing? What's popping out to you? First of all, Maggie, I love how you put the sort of weather patterns up against the market patterns and call out the storms that are breaking across the bow. Yeah, totally. I mean, you know, there's the markets are gyrating and they're sending messages again, which is, you know, my favorite, my favorite part of watching them.

2:08And so I think the most important thing to route to notice that you, you nailed it, obviously gold, right. That's the centerpiece right here, because what I wanted to come in today and talk about is that first of all, I think it's important to notice that the Bloomberg Commodities Index registered its first positive month in March after a seven-month slide in red territory, right? So there was a turnaround there. There was a 3 % rally in corn, a 4 % rally in copper and aluminum, a 7 % rally in gasoline, 6 % rally in crude oil, 9 % rallies in gold and silver. So it sounds like the natural resources sector sat up in its chair and sent a message in March.

2:51And that's the message that I'm listening to and that I've been telling people to change up their portfolios or adjust their portfolios a bit because of this move. And then you look at the stock market in March, Maggie, all natural resources and housing in lead, 20 % rally in minors, 10 % rally in gold, excuse me, behind the 10 % rally in gold, natural resources in E &P, both up 10%, home construction and home builders, up 7 % and 8 % in March, basic materials and industrial miners up 6%. Message is crystal clear, right? Those are the leaders that were outpacing technology last month. So what happened is, you know, it feels like the market's got a whiff of, you know, the inflation bug is back.

3:38What we also got in March were fairly hot CPI and PPI numbers. That's why you come into the first day in April and you get ISM manufacturing back up above 50 and some stronger data there yesterday. You've got rates ratcheting higher right away, right out of the chutes in April, right? I think in response to that commodity bubbling that we just went over. And so now you've got higher yields. You've got 10s pushing the upper end of the range. You got stocks rotating where, dare I say, technology looks a little bit vulnerable. I've been sitting up in my chair since my man Tom Thornton called out the DMARC 13 in NVIDIA last week.

4:21The price was$9.50, and it dropped like wet socks on a chicken,$50,$60, and it's now under$900. So if that's the beginning of that pullback, leading technology lower, I think all the money that comes out of that is going to potentially go flying into the natural resources markets. Some of these ETFs, like the XLE E &P ETF, are trading to all-time highs. The housing ETFs are trading to all-time highs with large magnitude gains. These are sending a message to me that is pretty clear that the natural resources sector has awoken. If you're off sides here, I think it could be potentially dangerous in the next several months because you probably just got bit for the first time in March, but you might get bit again in the months that follow.

5:11You know why, Maggie? Because if we look at the screens today, it's basically a microcosm of what happened in March. Right. We've got two sigma rallies in XLE to a new all time high in gold and silver, in aluminum, in diesel and throw in zinc for good measure. Zinc. I haven't heard about zinc in a while, so we know things are moving. Which begs the question, Maggie, have you ever seen zinc? No. Unless it's oxide on a nose. Exactly. I think that those things are important, and then that's what you need to be focusing in on right now. And that versus the natural resources markets waking up versus the tech markets, which I'll include Bitcoin in this for a moment, but like the AI and the tech stuff, that's all gone parabolic, right?

6:05And they're kind of due for a pullback. So while it's really hard to buck the trend, and I'm not saying that I've done that yet, I'm not short any tech, I'm not being a wise guy. I'm just going to watch the money flow because I think that if those are due for a reasonable pullback, right, maybe they overextend it on the highs and can pull back to some prices lower than this. Some money comes out of that market while gold is breaking to a new all-time high and energy stocks are breaking out to a new all-time high and oil is now 85 bid trading towards 90, totally backward dated again in a completely bullish scenario.

6:43So, you know, this is what's going on and this is top of mind for me. And I also will going to kick the tires in Bitcoin before we finish this conversation. But I don't want to take the floor. Go ahead. Yeah, definitely. I want to stay with the natural resources commodities for a minute. So we have a very active chat with a lot of people weighing in. And Doug asking, is it the rotation to commodities you've been talking about? Certainly looks like it in March. And I will say that for those of you who are paying attention, this is why it pays to be a member. There were plenty of people like Tony who were kind of talking about, listen, this is you heard Harry talk about it yesterday.

7:21Julian Brigden's probably tackling someplace right now. I'm seeing this action. So so there were people who were who were talking about this, including Tony. But I want to bring up this sentiment that Michael just expressed. And this is, I think, more of a tactical question now about how you think about this when you've seen this kind of breakout, Tony. Michael said, what everyone knows isn't worth knowing or sort of asking that. And I think giving voice to the fact that if you're sitting there and say you haven't made the move preemptively, is it too late now that you're seeing it? Or have you missed it?

7:57Do you chase this? Are you better just sitting there waiting for something else to happen? And I think this is what goes through people's mind at an inflection point like this. How do you think about that? Well, every trade needs to be entered tactically, right, with a sort of good technical reason. And I can just, the first thing that comes to mind is I just got long energy stocks in the newsletter. And I got long them on the first print to a new all time high because it feels to me like we're still in the early phases of the natural resources strength trade. Right. The Fed just pulled a huge hocus pocus on the markets.

8:38We got inflation from nine percent to five percent. We got oil from one thirty five back to sixty five bucks. You know, like, you know, we they just pulled off a massive trick in the commodity space to get inflation headline inflation out of the headlines. Right. We got it down to a level that the markets are always going to come barking back because last sale is what matters. Not not what they, you know, bake into CPI or PPI data, which is now coming in a little bit hot. And that's before any of these commodity rallies registered into the data. So something worth keeping a tab on, let's say. So it's not too late.

9:18What's going on now is we are experiencing different phases of the S &P breakout. The S &P is still brilliantly, in my opinion, doing its job, separating winners from losers. You look at the rotation today, and the biggest, strongest rallies were in oil services and energy, and that's the breakout that we just played. So I think it makes perfect sense that those stocks just continue on at this level. And so, yeah, some of these, it's still early enough, I think. If you look at March, like March sent that message. In the middle of the washing machine in March, you weren't able to discern how it was going to shake out.

9:55And finally, when you get to the end and you start looking at the results, which just came in several days ago, you see, OK, there's big moves going on. But gold just broke out to a new all-time high five minutes ago, right? Energy stocks just broke out to an all-time high. You know, home builders have been breaking out to all-time high. So, you know, these trends are going. You know, you can pick your spot where to get in. But this is where the market is going. This is definitely showing you where the market's going. I think that we're in for a period now where the S &P may go sideways. The NASDAQ may back off a little.

10:27But we're going to see natural resources, you know, kind of dragging technology along. where you're going to see natural resources be up several percent in the course of a week. And technology wants to go lower, but the S &P is still going higher. And so it's kind of causing indices to go sideways, energy and natural resources to go higher, and tech to just stop performing for a little while as money flows into a different space. So that's what I see happening, Maggie. Hey, everyone. We're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision daily briefing.

11:05Kraken Pro is the powerful crypto platform for experienced traders who demand the best. With advanced charts, real-time market analytics, and lightning-fast trade execution, Kraken Pro empowers you to trade your way. Customize your setup and make every pixel count by rearranging and stacking trading modules in a way that makes sense to you. On Kraken Pro, you have the freedom to put your favorite market analytics and execution tools exactly where you need them. And whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, Kraken Pro has everything you need to navigate over 210 plus assets with confidence.

11:43Join the thousands of seasoned traders who trust Kraken Pro. Visit realvision.com slash Kraken Pro. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments.

12:18S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

12:53Yeah, and it's interesting you said you're not, so it is that rotation, but you said you're not shorting tech yet. So you want to see it's, it's, I mean, we, you know, it's been hard to do that. That's been a tough one because you've kind of gotten, not you, but people who've tried to do that have gotten run over before. So are you, are you fine to just to be neutral or how do you think, how do you think about that when, when you start to see that rotation away, does it mean tech has to have a pullback or do we maybe just go sideways? Well, what I think is, I feel like the, you know, the disco ball in the room, NVIDIA, looks like it may have peaked for the short term, right?

13:30You have a big parabolic top on the thing. Tom Thornton picks out a DMARC 13, which it hasn't picked its head up since he called that. And probably, you know, all I'm expecting is a sensible market dynamic pullback for NVIDIA into the moving averages, right? It's going to maintain an uptrend. It's going to maintain, you know, the AI tailwinds, but the price got over its skis, I mean, that's obvious right now. 950 is in the rearview mirror. We're under 900. So price was ahead of its over its skis. And it feels like it still might be that way. So that's kind of the disco ball that I'm talking about that I would take a chance on shorting because at least there, there's a little bit of room on the downside where I can bob and weave, right?

14:14The NASDAQ, I'm not really interested in shorting the whole tech space because I'm naturally, I'm a natural born equity bull, especially given the conditions that we're under right now. So, you know, like I said, the market is going to be, there's going to be timed breakouts, you know, all along the way. And you're just going to have to make sure that you're in the sectors that are performing and not the ones that die for a little while. And I feel like tech is kind of due to be sideways to tough to make money at the highs kind of feel to it. Yeah. Yeah. You're right. There's a kind of complex macro overlay on this that makes it really tricky.

14:48There's a lot of cross currents. Doug is asking, so gold is interesting, right? Because that's been the sort of trade that disappointed. It's been frustrating for people. Does this breakout feel real? And Mark is, oh, not Mark, where'd Doug go? Doug is asking, gold hitting a new high, even with the Dixie going up. Is gold forecasting the Fed being forced to cut rates? Thanks. How are you thinking about gold? Does this breakout feel like a substantial one? I'm thinking about gold breaking out as a single commodity that it makes sense to be breaking out now with fundamental technical and every other kind of tailwind that you can come up with.

15:29If it looks like a breakout and smells like a breakout through the triple top at 2080 and the cup and handle and every other chart that we've been staring at for the last five years, then it is a breakout. I'm still saying, Maggie, I'm still going with my call that don't be shocked when you wake up one morning and gold is up$200 because we're in all time high space now. And all it takes is one asset allocation to send the thing effing flying, right? Because we're in new high territory. So there's no resistance level for anybody that wants to make a sale to find out where to make a sale. The next place to make a sale is going to be where the last ding dong buyer walks in and paints a crazy new high on the tape.

16:13And that'll be the next resistance level. But until then, to me, it looks like a clear pass to at least$2 ,600, maybe$3 ,000 this year. I don't know. This is a real breakout and with totally good reason, if you look around the world. So yeah, this is like the second most bullish security on my radar behind the S &P 500. That's so good. Cast everyone, go back on the platform, people, and search up Rick Rule. In his interviews, he often talks about what the allocation of people's gold is. And I'm not suggesting where gold is going, but for a backdrop, for a fundamental backdrop of what Tony's talking about, he talks about the percentage of gold in people's portfolios, and it's minuscule.

16:54It's like nothing. And so his argument has always been for years. and, you know, I'm not saying the timing of it, this is a very long-term view, is that even if there was an incremental change in that, it would make a huge difference. And that has been his bull argument for a long time. So perhaps worth going back and digging up some of those interviews as I bet that they will be really helpful right now. And we'll see about getting Rick back on when we've got gold moving. I'm sure he's loving talking about it.

17:23So Mark asking, I want to get a couple of these in because it's, And then I want to ask you what you're hearing from your clients too, Tony, because I think that with all of this, are people trying to figure out not only what do I do for the future, but how do I hang on to what I made? Or am I going to get this big washout? Am I going to get blown out? Can I just be, if I have a slightly longer term view, what do I do? Mark's saying, Tony, risks of a big fall that may sink all boats with a 50 % correction on a technical basis. Is there a risk of that? You just said you're bullish the S &P. And the S &P?

17:54No, I think he means stocks. I think he means stocks in general. So he didn't specify, Mark, if you want to pop it in there, whether it's S &P or NASDAQ, but I think he's talking about some giant black swan type event that pulls the market down 50%. My man, if that kind of thing, it doesn't feel to me like the world or the market or the tape or the credit markets or the high yield markets or the option markets or any market or any market I can think of telegraphing anything like that right now. And I feel like with all due respect, I feel like you've got to get like, if that's what you're worried about, you've got to get onto the right playing field here, right?

18:40This is, this is a bull market breakout S and P you know, breaking out technically NASDAQ AI tailwinds, you know, a very clear winner in the lead with NVIDIA and several other offshoot winners, right? This is a new birthing level of technology that is quite clearly taking place. I mean, I find myself reaching for AI tools left and right, whether it's to create silly pictures for my newsletter or to have it summarize an article in bullet points that's 11 pages that I don't have any time to read, right? Like this is happening, right? So I feel like, like, let's focus on what is happening. And, you know, if we get blindsided by something like that, then the whole world is too, you know?

19:27And so like, that's the way I have to play the game basis, like what has gone on in the last 24 hours, two weeks, two months, two years, right? Like I want to be in that reality. And if I'm living in that reality and I've got risk capital that has now been separated from my cash again and is going into the risk bucket, then put it at risk. And if you don't want it at risk, put it, put it in cash, put it in something else. That's a really good distinction, Tony, right? Like that's one way. So by the way, Mark, I asked that question because everyone feels the same way. I think there's a part of everyone that looks out and it just seems like there's reasons to think that things are crazy and it's a very difficult time and there are a lot of sort of risks out there.

20:14And we all feel like that. And so I think it's a very normal feeling, right, to feel like that, which is why Tony puts his sort of investing hat on. And also, I think the idea of separating out money so that you feel secure with what you don't want to, that you really want to preserve, and then you can move forward with what you don't. I love that way of thinking about it, Tony. Yeah. And also because Because I've been in those shoes before in my life where I've witnessed a breakout that I know is a breakout. And I've said to myself, all these people buying into this are going to get all rinsed.

20:48And I've tried fading breakouts like that, like two iterations of Tony Greer, the trader, ago. So it's like when you get tired of losing that money or you get tired of being out of the markets or not in sync and figuring out how to get in sync, But like we said, like we started, the point is, Ma 'in, the number one point is, is that question is not one that needs to be asked with all due respect. It's like if the money's in cash, have it in cash. If you're going to have it at risk, then put it at risk. There's a number of bull markets out there for you to choose from, right? Observable bull markets.

21:24Pick your favorite one, the one you can sleep most with the money in the market, and tackle that one. That's my suggestion versus trying to figure out what to do if tomorrow means a 50 % pullback in stocks, because I don't know how to live through that either. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

21:50Yeah, exactly, exactly. Mark just saying, just looking at the horizon. But that's right, and we all are, and that's very natural to do that, Mark. So that's a fantastic question that's so helpful. So the converse, Maggie, is this is why it's so fun for somebody with experience to be long anything trading into all-time highs. Yeah. Because you know damn well that it's breaking out. You know damn well that nobody knows where it's going. And you also know that there's going to be an entire room full of suckers that are going to get burnt fading it on the first day of the breakout. And so that's why it's really fun to witness that whole thing taking place like we're seeing now across a number of markets.

22:27Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And it's been the case. I mean, people have been fighting it all the way up on tech, too. You know, it's just hard because, as I said, these are kind of crazy times we're living in. So I want to make sure we talk before we get some great questions coming in. I want to talk about the Bitcoin move. So it's interesting that gold is rallying and we see Bitcoin with a sharp drop today. And we're always asking that question. Is it correlated with risk assets or is it another option for people choosing gold or not? For a little while, it looked like that. That was a big move with Bitcoin, which is not unusual when we're talking about crypto, by the way.

23:07But what are you looking at for the Bitcoin chart? What jumped out to you with that price action? The Bitcoin chart speaks volumes to me, Maggie, right now. And it's because as we got to the highs, we heard from all the laser eyes again. and everybody's bullish 70K saying, you don't understand. And every time you talk about shorting it, some wise guy comes up and says, you haven't done the work. I've done the work. I understand that there's no way that this thing goes down, right? And you look back a couple of weeks later, and Bitcoin has a failed auction at the top, which is a false breakout followed by another failed attempt behind it, right?

23:47Both of those attempts land in new high territory above the 2021 high of 70K. Now, we've pulled back below that, and we've pulled back below the first 2021 high of 65K, which is relevant because from 65K, Bitcoin got halved before it made a new high. So that's an important level to me. So here we are in danger of breaking that level with probably the nastiest double top false breakout I've ever seen in my life in the rearview mirror. Right. So I don't have a Bitcoin position. If I was going to put one on, I would ask my boss if I could be limit short this chart right now and stop out above that first, that second high there at 71 K or whatever it is.

24:34But it looks to me like it's ripe for a pullback toward the ETF launch prices of around 45, 50K. And that would make total sense in the world to me for, you know, you watch all the corporate buy money with the buy tickets on their forehead, run into the ring and buy their, you know, whatever amount of inventory that they need of Bitcoin. Watch all of the longs get trapped in futures at the highs. Watch all of the longs get trapped in ETFs at the highs and then have a 40 % pullback from there. I mean, doesn't that sound characteristic of something Bitcoin-y? It does to me. So I'm excited to see what happens.

25:11And I don't have a skin in the game right now, so I'm not going to root too hard. But I am going to give some, you know, some chin music back to all the bulls that said that it wasn't short a bull at 72K. I mean, what a crock of shit that is. Anyway. Do you think that Bitcoin, so you seem like you're using the same kind of things that you look at when you look at other asset classes. You don't, except for the fact that this is a volatile asset class. So maybe in terms of the kinds of moves, it has a characteristic of more of a commodity because it can, you know, they can spike and come back quickly.