#1015 - What Geopolitic Risks Are Not Priced In? | with Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic

23:27In other words, as I discussed this morning, perhaps the most important macro implication of what just happened is that there was a concern. I mean, again, on Friday, the number one reason the market has been coming down over the past two weeks since we reached 5 ,200 on S &P 500, the number one reason is this debate within the macro community on whether or not the Fed is going to have to adjust their expectation of three cuts. And the number one reason for that is the stickiness of inflation. Well, you just handed Jay Powell the excuse for why he can look through any stickiness. He can just simply say it's transitory.

24:03It's a product of exogenous geopolitical factors. we do not control. And we're not about to cause more pain and headwinds to the US economy because the regime in Iran is increasing the geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. I can see him literally saying verbatim those words at the next press conference as he cut rates. So, Jeffrey, yes, but not for the reasons you thought, I think, is the answer. It's not because it would make Biden look strong. It would be because the Fed would have the cover, in Marco's opinion, to be able to cut rates. Jacob, I want to bring up another issue about that, though.

24:39And this is something that you raised in your conversation with Dee Smith in March when we were last talking geopolitics. But it came up again in a conversation I had with Vincent Delawar from Stonex yesterday when it comes to inflation and the election. Let's have a listen to that. We'll talk on the other side. you know, Trump has many, you know, changed his views many times on many topics. But one area that, two areas that I think is really kind of part of core Trumpism, one is protectionism. I mean, if you look at videos of him from the early 80s, he was already talking about like the Japanese stealing our job.

25:18And then, so I think truly, truly he believes, you know, that the trade deficit is something that needs to be cut, that, you know, So that part, I think, is going to be really, like, maybe Trump's action on his approach. You know, he may, you know, pick on certain countries to save some others. But overall, you know, he threatened a 60 % tariff on Chinese export and 10 % across the board. Can you imagine that? I mean, the shock. Like, if we do see that, I mean, it's going to be huge. And then the second part that, you know, Trump is, you know, I think consistent about is, you know, he's a New York State guy.

25:53Like, he's made money with leverage. I mean, he's a dead guy. He wants low rates, more debt and juice it up. So, yeah, I mean, a Trump election victory would be extremely bullish for inflation. I think this is such an important point. And Jacob, when you said it in mid-March, it really struck me because there was not a lot of conversation around that. And when you're looking at polls among American voters, Marco, to your point, foreign policy almost never matters. It's almost always a pocketbook issue for Americans and the economy. And this time around, it's really inflation. There's some polls that show that people thought they were better off four years ago when Trump, forgetting about COVID and all that, then now that inflation issue is so front and center on people's minds.

26:49And Jacob, what Vincent just said about it being super inflationary, a Trump win, it seems like either candidate, there's a risk of that. How do you see that inflation piece of the puzzle? Yeah, well, let's break a couple of things apart. First of all, I disagree with Marco on the rate cuts. And Marco, I have dispatched numerous drones that are going to drop leaflets all over your office explaining this position to you. So you have time to position whatever things you need to appropriately. I also, I just want to quote my, I believe it was my fellow Louisiana and James Carville who said when Clinton was running that it's the economy, stupid.

27:21It's always the economy, stupid. Like that's always where things are going to end up. Bob Rubin had some choice words about bond traders too, to Clinton. But look, look, I was one of the first people talking about this. I've been thinking and worrying about Trump tariff policy for quite some time. Super inflationary. I don't know what that means. So maybe it's 10 % on all imports from other countries, because that's the tariff rate that he's talking about. Maybe it's 60 % from China. I don't know if that's super. I don't know if that qualifies as super. And there's all sorts of things in there.

27:49I think the key point about inflation that people need to have in their minds, and we're not used to thinking about it this way, is that it's going to be volatile. It's going to spike up and down. And I actually did some research on this recently. If you go back to August 1955 and look at the CPI every single month, not year, every single month to March 2009 increases every single month. So there is multiple generations of Americans who are just used to prices going up and to the right. You get a little bit of a seesaw around the 2008, 2009 financial crisis, and still it's up and to the right.

28:20It takes off in 2016. So we've sort of been conditioned to think that inflation is only going in one direction. If you look back to the world 1913 to 1941, CPI increased maybe 18 times during that time period, decreased 10 times. So it's this back and forth sort of topsy-turvy type of world. And that's what I think we're getting to. And the reason I give you that data is because if Trump gets elected, there's a couple different scenarios there. And I'm not going to even try. I don't have the hubris to predict what Trump is going to do. For all I know, these are negotiation tactics and he doesn't mean any of it.

28:51But let's say that he does it. Let's say that he raises these tariffs significantly and you get an inflationary spike. And let's say Jay Powell says, OK, we're going to have to raise rates because we have to contain this inflation. What if by doing so, you get so much demand destruction and so much of a shock to the economy? And this is what happened in the early 1930s, is you go from massive inflation to massive deflation. And suddenly, we're not talking about an inflationary crisis at all. We're talking about the fact that, huh, in 2023, global trade shrunk by 5 % and trade volumes were roughly stagnant.

29:23Maybe that was the beginning of something. Maybe we're going to see trade volumes continue to decline. Maybe we're going, maybe Chinese deflation is finally going to get exported to the rest of the market. And then we're in a whole completely different set of variables than let's say he hikes tariffs, the Fed does nothing. Then you get more inflation, but maybe you get more growth on top of it. Or, as I said before, let's say it's all a negotiating tactic and we're not worrying about inflation at all. So a lot of this comes down to can we figure out what Trump actually means and what he's going to do when he's going to get in office?

29:53I don't know. And so I spend most of my time right now when I'm doing geopolitical risk, when I'm not being distracted by the Iranians and their silly drones and this like catfight in the Middle East. with which of these scenarios is right. Can I get myself in the head of this Trump character and which direction it's going to go? What if it's Biden at the same time? There is so much uncertainty and volatility around that that I really do think that's the center of gravity to be thinking about. And Marco, is there any scenario where it seems like there's fiscal restraint in Washington, regardless of who wins?

30:22Yeah, so first of all, I mean, on the drones carrying leaflets, I mean, what I would say to Jacob, it's like, it doesn't really matter. I think too many people focus on how many cuts are going to happen. Look, the truth is they shouldn't have been talking about cuts anyways. That's what matters. That's why the market is up as much as it is, because the Fed is behind the curve relative to the macro context. I think too many investors focus on the number of cuts. And the fact that the market went down as cuts are being priced out is also silly. You know, like, I mean, they should be probably hiking, quite frankly.

30:54So this is all kind of banal. The point is the Fed is behind a curve and is behind a curve for political reasons. And And that's going to be the case until the election. After the election, we were presented with this scenario of Trump. Is he inflationary? Is he deflationary? I think it kind of doesn't matter. I mean, I'm in the camp that believes that he is not really going to increase tariffs as much as he does. They are negotiating tools, blah, blah, blah. It doesn't really matter. Look, pricing tariffs and their inflationary impact is so difficult because on one hand, yes, you're raising prices, literally.

31:24On the other hand, the dollar strengthens, which offsets those price increases because it's imported goods. So, you know, good luck, like sort of doing the quantitative analysis on that. To me, what really matters is that, you know, James Carville said another thing. And he said that when he dies, he doesn't want to get reincarnated as a ballplayer or an actor. He wants to be reincarnated as the bond market because everyone's afraid of the bond market. And that, of course, refers to the 1994 bond market riots. You know, Bill Clinton actually didn't run as a third-way centrist. He ran as an Arkansas populist.

32:02He wanted to basically give back the war dividend from the Cold War to the people, and the bond market rioted, forcing him to sit down with Newt Gingrich. And I think we're setting up the stage for the same thing. Whether Trump initiates tariffs or not, I think that the bond market will riot if President Trump wins. Why? Well, because he's likely going to win and keep the Senate – sorry, flip the Senate and keep the House. I think that's the highest mathematical probability. I don't want to really get into it because it doesn't matter. It just is. And then you're going to have this kind of a scenario, which we had from 2016 to 2018, where the bond yields basically went from Brexit at 1.5 % to 3 % when President Trump lost the domestic prerogative by losing the midterms.

32:45Now, nobody remembers about this. Nobody remembers this move because we all remember those futures going down on the election day and then going back up. And that's because bonds and equities at the time were negatively correlated, in part because we needed growth. We needed inflation. Donald Trump was God's retribution for austerity. He was the mean reversion fairy, if you will. And this time around, we're not starting at 1.5. As you said this morning, Maggie, quite correctly, by the way, the market heard you and went down. We're starting at 4.6. If we have another one of these moves, there's no chance in hell that the equity market is going to do well when Trump gets elected.

33:29And it's not about tariffs. It's not about protectionism. It's not about foreign policy. It's because he's ultimately an economic populist. He's starting a nominal GDP growth. That's what the world needed in 2016. It's not what the world needs in 2024. And so when bonds sell off this time, it won't be for 175 level. It will be for 460 level. and that will have negative implications for equities. And I think that's what the market should be concerned about, but it can't price it in because the betting markets are evenly split. And so this could be that shock on November 6th that catches a lot of people by surprise.

34:07UBS out today saying there's a risk, Fed hikes, which you can take issue with that, but they could see yields, the 10-year going to 6.5%. Jacob, your thoughts. I think it's so fascinating that populists love tariffs because tariffs are just a tax on the American consumer. So Biden wants to tax rich people and Trump, he won't say it, but all he wants to do is tax all the people who are importing these cheap things from China and everywhere else. I'll just say, I mean, I still work with some companies on a daily basis and thinking about their supply chains. And it's a material thing for them. Because if you look at where a lot of intermediate parts and things come from, it is still China.

34:48There hasn't been any meaningful decoupling. I know a couple months ago the narrative was, oh, look, Mexico has surpassed China as the top U.S. trade partner. It's just because the stuff is coming from China through Mexico, not because there's been actually meaningful change in the global trading system. And the thing about Trump is if it's that 60 % on China, 10 % on everything, and it might not be. But if it is that, you're talking about truly upending the global trading system and a shock for a lot of these companies that are thinking exactly as Marco's thinking. He's not going to do it. There's no way in hell.

35:18And the one thing that I will sort of put in your minds that might be different about this time with Trump is remember, before COVID, we were all talking about the phase one trade deal. It was supposed to be the cherry on top of the Trump Sunday where I cowed China into submission and they had to buy all these American agricultural goods and commodities and things like this. And this is the beginning of America taking back its future. China didn't live up to any of its commitments in the phase one trade deal. And we know that Trump is very vengeful and doesn't like when he's made to look bad. And he sort of looks bad.

35:47If you talk to American farmers or talk to folks who were expecting good things out of the phase one trade deal, they didn't see any of it. And so part of me worries that the place that Trump is coming from is not economic populism. I don't think he's thinking about the median vote or anything like that. I think he thinks that China embarrassed him and he would like a little bit of revenge and he'd like to shove some of that chocolate cake that he had with Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in 2016, 2017 down Xi Jinping's throat. So I agree with Marco that his scenario is probably more likely than mine.

36:16And great. I hope that's the one that comes true. But I think like the actual tariff scenario is a little scarier, Marco, than you're letting on. And it's the one that we have to be most prepared for. Yeah, I'm absolutely disagree with that just for a couple of reasons. First of all, if you look at the chart on the left, like tariffs, you know, you need a magnifying glass to see that. You know, so that's number one. Number two issue is that, I mean, look, Trump has literally said he's OK with TikTok. He doesn't want to help the other ones. He stood in front of a crowd in Ohio saying to them, I'm going to bring Chinese EVs to build factories here.

36:51He's looking at the 1980s Japanese solution. But look, even if that happens, the scenario I'm painting is actually worse. What's happening in the US is that long-term inflation expectations are well anchored because of this credibility that the Fed has. Gold prices relative to real yields are telling you that a lot of investors don't buy those long-term inflation expectations. And if you get a Trump or even a Joe Biden presidency with a unified Congress, but that's not going to really happen. You get Trump with unified Congress, that is really kind of the nightmare scenario for markets. And not because of Trump, but because he will have no constraints domestically.

37:31And we saw - There's a reason US, the market likes gridlock. That used to be the tradition. I don't know. I I don't know that they don't like anything getting done, but they like checks and balances. Well, also, look, we had a preview. You know, when LizTrust submitted a budget full of tax cuts that were not paid for, you literally had a market riot in the United Kingdom that forced the BOE to effectively use yield curve control. And so, you know, that's why I say tariffs from tariffs. Like, yeah, I'm sure that you work with some, you know, companies that deal with this. Like, you can work with some farmers.

38:03You can work with some supply chain. And for sure, it's important. But on a macro level, if we're talking about a 10-year yield going to 6.5%, I mean, who cares about individual companies? Like everything is going down. We're not talking 20, 30. We're talking 40, 50 % in the stock market. Is there a risk under Biden that the bond market riots as well? Is this a singular Trump risk or is it a Biden risk as well? We still have him forgiving loans. And you certainly will hear from people that they don't think that everyone's spending like a drunken sailor. It just depends on where and what your preference is.

38:43But is that a risk, Marco, that that happens as well, even under a Biden win? Well, you asked earlier, Maggie, is there anyone talking about fiscal consolidation? And yes, Republicans in Congress will be talking about fiscal consolidation when Biden wins the reelection. So that's why, no, there isn't a risk of a massive repriced payment. Because you won't have the ability to do it because Congress won't give it to them. There'll be a check on it. That's right. And by the way, Jacob's view is actually the consensus view in that when you go and you talk to hedge funds, very sophisticated hedge funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, they all want to talk to you about the trade policy of Donald Trump.

39:17They, you know, they're not like bar market riots in November 6th. What are you talking about? That's the answer I get. It's mostly like what happens to the dollar because of the tariffs? What happens to inflation? I just think that that's like something we can worry about in January, February, March, you know, April 2025. 25, I think that on November 6, if you get unified Congress and Trump, forget about tariffs. The number one issue will be, does the market really want more tax cuts? Does it want more pro-growth policies? And I think the answer is definitively no, because the 10-year yield is at 4.6.

39:52I just want to jump in and say, Marco, it's refreshing to be called the consensus because I am so often the contrarian that I'm happy to be ascribed to another C word. This is rare for me, and I'm really enjoying it. I agree with you in this one area that tariffs are a symptom, not a cause. And if you go back and look at Smoot-Hawley, or if you go back and look at the tariff of abominations from the 1820s and 1830s, which is fascinating history, I won't like spend the whole time talking about it right now. In the 1820s, 1830s, the tariffs actually lead to growth because the United States is at that sort of industrializing phase in its economic life.

40:23And it's a good thing. When you look to the 1930s, I think the narrative is, oh, that Smoot-Hawley helped cause the Great Depression. Great Depression was already there. Smoot-Hawley and the protectionism and the trade that was coming after it was a symptom of something that was wrong. And that's why I'm saying I don't want to spend too much time necessarily on the tariffs. I think a Trump level of tariffs, I think it would be a shock to the system. And I think it would surprise a lot of the physical economy in meaningful ways. But I think the bigger thing here is that trade maybe is starting to change a little bit.

40:51And that this talk of tariffs and protectionism is a symptom of something else that's going on. I can just go back to what I said before about globalization and China and Mexico. We haven't decoupled or deglobalized at all. There hasn't been a lot of meaningful changing of supply chains. All this lip service that people have paid since 2016, there haven't actually been that many changes. And I take your point that we get, and I took this from you originally, if you start getting higher rates and you get companies that are not going to do the capex to actually do sort of the deglobalization dance that we're talking about, then we're off to the races with inflation.

41:23And then that super inflation that we talked about is absolutely a scenario that's on the card. So I just want to say I agree with you that tariffs are a symptom, not a cause, but I wouldn't dismiss the symptom because I do think it tells us that maybe there is a disease. It's not necessarily going to be there, but there's a disease that is latent there, that the type of shock that is 60 % tariff on every single thing coming into the United States from China, including maybe 60 % on stuff that's coming through Mexico or some of these other places. I think that shock might do a little more damage to a patient that is not maybe as healthy as everybody thinks he is on the surface.

41:55So, yeah, questions that may seem out of left field, but I want to raise it because I think that, you know, we're talking about the entire globe and competitiveness and inflation. George asked this earlier, Marco, we didn't get to it. Any comment on the demolition of the yen and what that means? Japan was just, the prime minister was just at a state dinner at the White House. And we know there's an alliance with China that people are wondering if they're going to join between the UK, US and Australia. Any thoughts on what's happening with Japan and how they plug into this? I'm super bullish Japan for all sorts of reasons.

42:32I think too many institutional investors, professional investors, they focus on the central bank policy of Japan way too much. And so they're surprised that they didn't normalize their monetary policy. And that's part of the weakness of the yen. And I think there's no inflation in Japan. It's purely a product of currency. Demand in Japan has not recovered to pre-COVID levels. It's the only major economy that hasn't actually seen demand go back. So there's no organic inflation in Japan. People keep citing CPI figures, but they don't understand. They're simply looking at inflation that's imported by currency.

43:10And so that's why I agree with the BOJ decision to keep delaying normalization. And when they adjusted their yield curve control, it was very minor. That's what's weighing on the yen. But I think the other thing that's weighing on the yen is the data out of China continues to be very weak. So in March, we actually had complete collapse in total social financing, complete collapse in uptick in banking loans. And that's another thing that's a problem. But overall, Japan definitely fits into this whole rejigging of supply chain story. It's a much more likely place for advanced economies to put some of the manufacturing chains than the US.

43:53I mean, TSMC has already told us they're struggling to get enough labor for the plant in Arizona. Japan is sort of a midway. It's an alternative to the US. And they, of course, have the manufacturing know-how. So I'm bullish in Japan in the long term. And I think a lot of institutional investors are starting to think about raising their allocation to Japan in their strategic asset allocation. I'm bullish maybe for slightly different reasons. And on the long term, I think Marco and I will vigorously agree with each other about Japan as an opportunity. Japan wants a certain type of inflation. And it's been starting to get a little bit of it.

44:29If you look at the wage negotiations for the largest labor unions in Japan for this year, you got meaningful wage hikes that were above the rate of inflation. That's something that Japan wants, has been seeking. Let's see if they can continue it and get into that virtuous cycle. What they absolutely don't want is inflation for all the things that they have to import. So they don't want oil to go to the moon. They don't want to have to pay more for all of these other things. And I also agree with Marco that I think Japan is really badly and poorly understood in Western markets. I actually find China much easier to understand because there's much more data and much more out there about what China is thinking.

45:00And if you go and actually listen to the Bank of Japan and all these other things, they're talking about intervening with the yen. So for me, it's just a question of what level is it going to be at? So, I mean, our money's where our mouth is on this. We think the yen might actually strengthen against the dollar. If you look at all of the short interest on the yen right now, I think that's an interesting risk-reward. I don't know what number they're going to intervene on with the yen, but it will, and they'll move forward and it'll be fine. And I think Marco's point about the exposure to China, that's really the key thing for Japan.

45:26Because, you know, Kushida's doing the state dinner and he's having dinner with Marco's Jr. and talking about, you know, advanced operations in the South China Sea and building ships with the United States. And at the same time, Japan needs to be able to export to China. Its companies are building supply chains that will only service China and then supply chains that will service everywhere else in the world. The last thing I'll just say there is Japan is generally more comfortable with ambiguity in foreign policy. So U.S. foreign policy is very black and white. You're with us. You're against us.

45:54Axis of evil, blah, blah, blah. Japan has much more of sort of a history of, sure, our biggest trading partner and most important economic partner can be our biggest national security threat. What's the problem with that? smile and go like have a drink or something like that. So that's the needle they're trying to thread. We can hold two truths at the same time. So we, um, we covered a lot of ground and we went a little bit longer because I think it was really important to set the stage. And we are going to have these conversations on the regular as we lead up, as we see this brush fires everywhere, Marco, as you put it.

46:23And I think a lot of people like that analogy and we, we get closer to the election. Um, and I love that you both talked about the opportunities you see, because that's what we're all doing, right? We're trying to find those opportunities. We're trying to sort of have it make sense. Let's end on what the greatest risk is. I think we identified that there's concern about the bond market, about a riot. Bond vigilantes, call them what you want, but the bond market, but rates going up regardless of what the desire is, you know, politically, and the Fed and the U.S. administration losing control of the bond market.

46:55What else for both of you weighs on you? And are you watching closely and maybe underappreciated? Marco? No, I mean, I actually think it is the bottom market. I think the biggest risk to this equity rally right now is growth. And like more growth, like more robust US economy is the - Yeah, I mean, if the US consumer doesn't start slowing down a little bit, and if CapEx and some of the fiscal stuff doesn't fall down, I mean, the bottom market will be at 5 % before you can blinking eye. And that's a problem. I don't think any geopolitical issue is really as relevant as that is. I mean, think about today.

47:32I look at the headlines and it's like, oh, bond yields and Middle East violence weighs the stocks. No, no, no, no. That literally makes no sense. If the Middle East violence mattered, bonds would have rallied. So the fact that bonds are selling off and that oil hasn't risen tells you that nobody's paying attention to the Middle East. I mean, kind of incorrectly in some way. And it's really just that everyone's focused on the US economy, which is completely and utterly uncorrelated with like what the Fed is doing, which is whistling in the dark and saying, no, we'll cut. And that's what's causing stocks to go down.

48:15Basically, investors are betting that the Fed is going to have to pivot away from its selfishness. It's going to be tough to do the closer we get to the election, whether you think they're political or not. They just, you know, even if you think they just don't want to be involved in the election, they tend not to want to do stuff as we get, you know, try to get out of the limelight and the spotlight. Jacob, what about you? What is a risk you're worried about? Well, I'll say that, I mean, we've been worried about the bond market since the beginning of last year, and we've avoided duration and continue to avoid duration of all of our investment strategies.

48:45So like from that point of view, I agree with Marco. I'll also warn you that on my podcast a couple of weeks ago, I was actually talking with my business partner, Rob, about what we thought the biggest black swan risks were. And he said, oh, well, you know, a black swan is something you can't even imagine. It would have to be like an earthquake in Manhattan. And lo and behold, the day after we published that podcast, there was an earthquake in Manhattan. So be careful because I'm in New Jersey. Wait, did you guys knock on wood? What are you guys doing? No, I'm sorry. You guys caused it. I know.

49:12So what I'm about to say is I'm here in Louisiana. I'm in the Gulf. we had no storms last year. Not only do we have no storms, there was a drought down here. There were wildfires in the swamps. Just like think about that image in your mind for a second. If you look at Colorado State and you look at sort of the projections for what the hurricane season looks like this year, you sort of take into account what temperatures are like, a fastly fading El Nino. Like I'm worried about a sort of Hurricane Harvey type scenario where maybe for a couple of weeks, if there's a storm, like you knock out some part of the U.S.

49:42Petrochem or energy complex or something like that. So I think Marco's right. Like it's the election and it's the bond market. Like that's the stuff that's obvious. But the stuff that keeps me up at night is, okay, like what if we actually get a reversion to the mean when it comes to storms hitting the United States? What does that mean for U.S. insurance markets because they've already been battered? Or what does it mean for energy prices which have stayed honestly relatively muted even with all of this geopolitical risk around us everywhere? So that's my black swan. And I hope I didn't just speak it into being.

50:09We hope so, too. Perfect storm all around from brush fires to the threat of hurricanes. Guys, amazing conversation. We didn't even get to spend time on China, but by design now, because that just is a whole show in and of itself. But very complicated world we're looking at and certainly with huge impact for markets. So we appreciate both of you coming on and sharing all your wisdom with us. And we'll do it on the regular as we lead up to these really important events coming up. So thank you both. Thank you. Thanks to all of you guys for the great questions. Like I said, we're going to keep it going.

50:44So if you have thoughts, questions, concerns, post them in the comment section. We'll keep a running tab on them and get them in front of as many people as you can. We've got a festival of learning coming up because we all got to keep trying to make money while we deal with all these big thoughts. That is going to be next week, 18th, 19th. You can register. Brian will drop a link. All different things you need to think about in terms of digital assets and how they should fit in and whether they're right for you. They're going to cover it all. So it'll be really great stuff. So check that out. In the meantime, everybody take care and good luck out there.

51:16It's crypto summer, which means it's festival season. At Real Vision, we're getting ready for the next festival of learning in partnership with Kraken. It's taking place April 18 and 19. And the theme is don't F up alts, memes and NFTs. Yep, there's a big world of digital assets beyond Bitcoin and ETH. With lots of opportunity and lots of risk, we'll be bringing a ton of timely and actionable knowledge from speakers, including Raul Pal, Sergio Silva, Kevin Kelly, OSF and more. It's completely free to attend. Just go to realvision.com slash festival of learning to get the details and save your seat.

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