#1020 - Will Earnings Help Stocks Rebound? | With Dale Pinkert

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1:12will earnings help stocks rebound hi everyone welcome to the real vision daily briefing i'm maggie lake with me today is dale pinkert trading coach at trade gate hub hi dale it's great to see you maggie looks like we have our stormy monday blues on today that's right that's right now Oh, you can sing them and then we'll be the complete package. Really great, too. It is great to start the week off with you because we have a lot going on throughout the week. And we did see a nice rebound in stocks today. But I think the real test is going to come later this week. We have a big slate of earnings.

1:47We're really getting into the thick of it, including some big tech names. We have GDP data, inflation data. So there's going to be a lot for investors to chew on. Let's start with the S &P 500. Does it look like this bounce has legs? I'm in the selling rip mode, Maggie, if you put up the first S &P chart. I have a couple of dots. Last time I was here, I said I was looking for a top and pullback to the breakout at$4 ,800. We didn't quite get there on this pullback. So if we stay with this chart, the first dot that you see up there was actually the high. And that high was only two days after the Equinox.

2:29Thank you, WDGAN. And then I put up a second dot, and that was the market trying to recover after a break and putting in a secondary high on the Eclipse. Played around for a few days in that area, but the Eclipse put in a secondary high. Thank you, Chris Carolyn. with. Okay. So my view is now that if we go the four hour chart, that's the next one, that, and it's not updated with this rally. I'm looking for rally back to between 51 and 51.50. And I'm a seller at those levels looking for one more wave. Normally what you get is we had our first wave down, then you get a failing rally, one more break, and hopefully it's just a three-wave structure that holds around 48, and then the bull market could continue.

3:26I was always calling this a correction, not a crash. But if we start closing under 4 ,800 and it begins to negate that breakout, Now, that could be a different story. It could be down to 4 ,600. And I wouldn't get bullish until we reclaimed the 4 ,800 level. So if I'm right, we get a failing rally to 5 ,150, and then one more decline to around 4 ,800. And then we'll see. because, you know, you never know the difference between a top or the top until you only through a rearview mirror. Okay. And that's after lots of miles that pass behind you. So, you know, you play it and you can only find out if it was significant as time passes.

4:20Yeah, it's so true. And you talked about exactly what was on my mind, which is, you know, what is the downside look like? So it's good to keep an open mind. It sounds like you're going to want to see what that action is and what that support holds before you can figure out sort of what the next phase is, it sounds like. So it sounds like that downside is really important. Yeah, that's a real important area. It took a year and a half for it to reach it after we peaked at the end of 22, down almost all of 23 and rocket ship since. So this could just be a garden variety 10 % correction. Which are normal.

5:08When you talk to traders and people who have been in it for a long time, they get nervous when it just goes in one direction. You like to see some kind of consolidation and backing and filling. I saw a great little snippet on the web today, I think it was on CNBC, that we haven't seen seven down days. They're very rare to see it go down seven days in a row without a little bit of stabilization or a pop. I think the last one was 2020 when we were in the grips of COVID. So I guess pretty significant that they were able to rally today. But we've got so much headline risk, it sounds like, with earnings Dow coming up.

5:45I mean, let's talk about Tesla. I asked you to pull up the chart of Tesla because this has been a mess. And news over the weekend that they're cutting prices seems to just have piled on. They're in the middle of a restructuring. They've been cutting jobs. I mean, we've seen a lot of damage here. What's the Tesla chart look like? Because they're one of the big names that are coming out with earnings this week. Well, I bet that some of the viewers in the gallery right now are in chat. Recall I was bearish Tesla from well over$200 looking for$150. So it's even exceeded what seemed like a very aggressive bearish target.

6:24You know, anything could happen with earnings. I would rather keep my powder dry for a pullback in the minors than try and bottom pick Tesla for a bear market rally. Yeah. So we have, it seems like stocks are so dependent on what's happening with rates now, right? This has been the really important change that we've seen, the shift in thinking around the Fed, the backup in yields and interest rates. What are you looking at for TLT? Well, last time, if you see the TLT chart, I have a red dot. And we were trading, you know, like 98. And I was looking for 89 to 90 on the downside, take out that prior low.

7:12And we're at a very important point here in TLT. So if you see, we actually took out the bottom wedge line, the speed line, whatever you want to call it. I call that an overthrow. row. So for the bonds to get going, TLT, I need a close over 89.5 or 90. A close, not intraday. It's been above that line a few times intraday. But a close over 90, I'd go with it as a green light and risk the recent lows under 88. Because if we are getting the bottom here, now that everyone's accepted that we're not going to have six cuts or three or two. This is where the sentiment had to get to for TLT to retrace a little bit more than 61.8 of that October rally.

8:03Otherwise, the alternate view is kind of very destructive to all risk. That's the next chart. I always have an alternate view in mind. And this is a weekly chart of TLT. So if TLT doesn't dig its heels in here pretty soon, we could wash out one more time. A close over 90 is going to really lessen those probabilities a whole lot. But if we can't get that close over 90, we could challenge the October lows for what viewers and followers know is one of my favorite patterns, three drives to a bottom. My look at the weekly looks incomplete. So I'm flat, either going with a 90 close and stops under the recent lows, or we're going to have a pretty nasty move in yields.

9:01And maybe that's going to be tied in with the refunding package coming up. That was a market mover last October. That's what stabilized the market as the funding went more towards the short end than the long end. So if they change a package and it's heavier on the long end, that could set up a little mini panic to take out the October lows. Hey, everyone. We're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing. Today's Real Vision Daily Briefing is brought to you by Chintai, your partner in asset tokenization.

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11:44That's a really, really good observation, Dale, and it's something that's not on a lot of people's radar, at least when you're looking across. Because we have so much going on, like I said, we have earnings, GDP, inflation. Watch out for some of the dynamics around the refunding, though. You're absolutely right. That is going to be really important to the bond market. What does it feel like sentiment is? It sounds like we're at this really pivotal point, and you need to see these levels reached or hold on the upside. But man, it sounds like the downside has a lot more risk in it. It sounds like there's a lot more room for these markets to fall on the downside.

12:21Well, 4 ,800 is taken out. You're talking about, you know, 44, 43. I know some guys looking for 3 ,500. And, you know, I don't think that'll just be sparked by rates. that will be sparked by another escalation between Israel and Iran. So we're all focused on earnings and refunding. And, you know, we're on the verge of something very serious happening over there. I don't see it being diffused just because for a while, and Passover begins tonight and goes till the end of April. And just like Ramadan, they didn't attack during Ramadan. So, you know, maybe we have two, three weeks of calm, but I think we crossed the Rubicon with both countries from their own soil delivering, you know, projectiles.

13:21Yeah. Certainly a lot of countries are trying to, you know, engage and see if they can de-escalate and defuse the situation. It seems like it's in no one's interest to see this thing get out of control. You know what, Maggie? I don't know. Maybe I'll get some heat from this. But they have pressure from the inside, too. You know, women have died for not wearing a hijab. And millions of people took to the streets. So I don't think the population within Iran is that happy with their regime either. So pressure on the outside, pressure on the inside. Yeah. And maybe there could be some regime change.

14:03Maybe it's time to stand up. There's a great article. I cannot remember where I saw it, folks. But someone has a piece out on the generational situation, tensions that you're speaking about. They want to live a Western lifestyle. A majority of the population wants to have the kind of life that Westerners have. One thing we know is nothing is straightforward or simple when it comes to the tangled web. That certainly is politics in that region. But your point about there being a lot of geopolitical risk out there remains. We still have a hot war with Ukraine and Russia. There's a lot going on right now that can easily come up.

14:52And one of the things I think about, and we know from the past, is when you see an event happen, it's rarely one, right? It's usually the confluence of a couple of things that hit the market when they're least expecting it, when you can kind of get these sharp moves. So it's a reason why we keep focusing on this, and we will. As you know, our viewers know we pivoted last week to touch on geopolitics again. But rates, the other thing I want to talk about with you, and we'll talk more about oil and some of the commodities in a moment, but currencies. There's a lot going on in the currency market, some really extreme pressure.

15:31And before we even came on, Ched was commenting that you nailed the dollar call, which you did, talking about some of the levels that you were watching. So walk us through what you're looking at in terms of the dollar. This is putting an enormous pressure on certain countries. But let's start with DXY. What do you see with DXY? I'm assuming some of those levels were breached that you were watching. Yeah, that's right. I was looking for 106 in the Dixie and 106 in Euro. And so far in the Euro, it's been the low. But Dixie's gone up to, I think, 106.50. So I wouldn't rule out one more push. I'm already lightly short the dollar.

16:12Cable got to my target. I was talking in the 123 neighborhood. We came off a trend line. But for people that are conservative about the dollar is I would wait. First of all, you'll have a two-week reversal if by Friday we close under 106.01. 105 was a very important kind of acceleration point. That would be another signal that the dollar is rolling over. So I'm building short positions right now. And I'm going to be wrong over that high. I'll give it some tolerance and have like a 107.70 stop. But if I have a shot to buy Euro at 105.20, I'm going to try it with lows under the stops under the 104 level.

17:00Because if we go there, we're going to 102, maybe parity. I like the setup in Aussie. So I brought a couple of charts. I brought the pound and it shows it coming right off that line. But if you recall, those lines don't always hold. If you remember, TLT hit a similar line and held for a day or so and then traded under it for a throwover. Same thing could happen to cable. But I have a little piece on. I'll buy more at 22. And I think the Canadian dollar maybe has one more high in it. So I'm now ready to fade the dollar again as it enters my objectives. And the sentiment setup is very crowded. Okay, Maggie, when I like the dollar, no one, really, there are a lot of bears out there.

17:56Everyone's bullish. You know why? The reasons are obvious. Interest rate differentials, right? The Eurozone could ease in June. we're going to be tightening five basically. We move from six eases to maybe a tightening. So the advantage is to the dollar. Maybe that's in the market. And that's how you learn to be a contrarian. When it makes sense to everyone, fundamentally it fits their narrative. It's a time that you probably have too much company and that there might be a surprise. So I'm going to attempt this. We get through 108. eight, we're going to one 10. But like I said before, you never know if it's a top or the top until well after that happens.

18:44I will attempt everything I just mentioned with risk management by having stops in so that if I'm wrong, I still have an account to trade the next day. I was just going to point that out when you're saying this, that you've been very clear about saying that you're protecting yourself with all of these calls because you don't know yet, especially when you're early and when you're getting ahead of the turn. You can't be 100 % sure. So you've got to make sure that you're – I hope everyone's paying attention to the – Yeah, and take partials. I sold some Dixie last week and took some partials on Friday.

19:23So I already have a little cushion on this. Maybe I'll take heat on the inflation number or something. but you always have to take partials. And you know, Jack Schwager, who interviewed most of the market wizards for many generations, said if you're not taking partials, you are assuming that you're right with 100 % probability. Okay, so no one has 100 % probability trade. So when you have some money made, you know, bring the register. It's a nice sound. Put a bell on your desk. There's nothing like those sound effects. That's right. Make them for yourself. A cash register and, you know, ring it.

20:12That's right. I love it. You didn't mention dollar yen. You looking at that at all? Because that hit a, what, the highest, dollars at the highest level since the 1990s? That's another crisis. I think it might stretch to 57. 58 and then a big sell-off. And that really does correlate quite well with yields. So from where we're at, that's another, what, 300 points in the end. I'm watching the 10-year around 474. That's 78 % back, so we'll see. They don't always have to move in lockstep day to day, but I think there will be a break in the end, but from higher levels. Yeah, that's. And then that'll only be temporary.

21:06And then the end, I think eventually can trade 164 for a long-term objective. Wow. I want to get some of these questions in and I want to circle back. Doug, you mentioned before you're looking for a pullback in miners to buy. which miners, which metals. Thanks. Okay. Well, I brought a GDX chart and, you know, this gold rally and the miners exceeded my expectations, which, you know, it's really not bad when you make a call and nail the bottom on the day and it's there everywhere on Twitter on March 1st, but I didn't capture it all and it exceeded my expectations and turned into a fifth wave extension.

21:57But now I think there's going to be an opportunity to buy a pullback. I'd look at GDX between 30 and 28 for a buying opportunity. There were some silver shares in Devor doubled. You know, a lot of these silver shares doubled. I buy hard pullbacks looking at silver to hold between 26.5 and 25. It's hard to nail down a level, but I have the breakout in silver was 26, 25.80. So that'd be a natural thing for it to do. If it's really a strong bull market, it shouldn't even retest the breakout. So maybe we're going to have a shakeout and gold could trade 2200. something like that. And then we rally again, GDX is, you know, maybe Newmont at 34.

22:50But I'd be buying this pullback because if I'm right about the dollar, that also should be supportive. And if yields are going to peak and TLT gets back into that wedge, it's going to be a long everything market again, including the S &Ps. I can't see a weak dollar being negative for the market. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

23:24Going to jump back to stocks for a second because this is sort of interesting if it is that risk on again. Christopher asking, what's your view on Apple? Are you looking at Apple? You know, it's putting in a kind of an interesting formation. It may have left an exhaustion gap today, but I'd still sell rallies. You know, if I'm bearish the overall market, I'm still bearish Apple. Maybe I'd like to see where Apple's at when the S &Ps are trading 4 ,800. I suspect that it would have much trouble getting back over, say, 171 on this bear market rally. well, this reflex rally in S &P. So I don't think it's done to the downside.

24:10How are you thinking about Bitcoin and ETH here? Is it, so specifically Ralph was in the chat, chatting about the check, that Bitcoin and ETH are looking up maybe, but it didn't make sense given their correlation. So he's kind of like looking at both sides of it. They look like they could go higher, But then he, I think, worries about the correlation with risk assets, if I'm reading into that correctly. Yeah, you know, it kind of looks like a consolidation pattern we have in Bitcoin, which will allow for one more high to complete this huge move from$35 ,000. And then I think we're going to have a pretty good retrace in Bitcoin.

24:54So, you know, one more rally. Again, ring the register if you see, you know,$75 ,000 or so. 80 ,000, get up there, ring the register? Because maybe they could cut it in half after that. Because this is all going into the halving, right? Did the halving happen? I think it did, yeah. I think it was this weekend. I asked someone if they were being sawed in half. But you know, sometimes these things are priced in beforehand. You know, it's hard to gauge. It's like the ETF craze, you know, that drove it. And then you think it's not happening, and then you have a sort of delayed reaction. I guess I don't have a position.

25:34Anyone who, you know, rolled this, really, congratulations. But don't get caught up in, oh, well, if it pulls back, it's the house's money. Right now, it's your money. So take some off the table and use a trailing stop or something so you don't give most of it back. And if you relate to the party, the stop is even more important. Yeah. I just want to mention when we're on this topic too, first of all, you guys know we had a Festival of Learning and they're all over the stuff on the crypto shows on our platform. Crypto Academy is just dropping and we've got a new batch of things coming out for people who are earlier on the learning journey.

26:24So keep your eye out for all of that. If you're not on the platform, get on it so you can find this stuff. The other thing is check out notes. So wait, I have an announcement, drum roll, speaking of, which I was going to do at the end, but I'll do it now since we're talking about this. We had a notes contest last week during the Festival of Learning, and Hoken Lindstrom won for day one, and he had three crypto ideas that he posted in the public notes, which you can now do. And Nick Morris won for day two, which was your biggest crypto F-up. and there were some serious things about, as you pointed out, Dale, taking money off the table.

27:00Nick hilariously also said a big lesson for him was do not trade while you're drunk. He said pissed, but drunk. Never works out, which was so funny. Both of them get a season three NFT. But importantly on the notes, and I think Brian's pulling up the platform. If you haven't checked it out yet. Don't trade when you're driving either. Yes, not when you're driving too. Sound advice from both of you. At least pull over. Right. Maybe the same thing with trading when you're drunk. So if you go to your homepage, hit Explore All. And then under that at the top, you'll see videos, reports, news, notes, hit Notes.

27:39And now you can post a public note and read everybody else's public notes, sharing their ideas. So if you're on the fence about what to do, if you are trading Bitcoin, for example, which we were just talking about, go check out some of the notes on there because people are swapping ideas and you should feel free to as well. Or post thoughts slash questions, anything controversial that you want to debate, whatever is on your mind, go there and do it. I haven't done it yet, but I'm going to be all over this. You people may be sick of seeing me. I'm so excited about that. Anyway, John has a great, great question.

28:16Dale. Oh yeah, by the way, if you're on YouTube, you can't do that. So get over to the RV platform and get yourself an account so you can post. John said, Dale, how do you decide to take a partial gain or add to the trade? Great question, John. Okay. Based on technical areas, and I have, my first target is, you know, not that far away. In currencies, I'm happy with partials with 40, 50 pips even if i see the potential of it being a 200 bit move um as far as adding positions based on breakouts i'll add you know i'll press the bet but i don't press with the same size i press with less because it's not as you know it's already run so you know you're more vulnerable to counter of trend moves.

29:10So that's how I do it. You know, but it's, it's really your personality. Um, but come up with some number that you're, you're happy with and don't second guess yourself and say, oh, I should have stayed long everything. Because there'll be times you're going to be glad that you took something and moved your stop to be E because you ended up still making money instead of, uh, having the opportunity cost of time. and making nothing. Yeah, it's such good advice. And by the way, John, it's the hardest thing to do. It's a question we get all the time and it is really nuanced. And I know for folks like Dale, it's just that all that experience, I joke with him and Tony, it's like a spidey sense, right?