#949 - Is Big Tech About to Make Another Run? With Tony Greer

0:00Do you know the number one obstacle to financial success? time or lack of it without enough time you can't learn efficiently plan effectively or focus on the right strategies that's why real vision offers you a simple and efficient way to gain expert knowledge use time-saving market tools and leverage the brain power of our community to help you succeed faster get a taste of financial freedom with our free offer at realvision.com forward slash free

0:41is big tech about to make another big run hi everyone welcome to the real vision daily briefing with me today is tony greer editor of the morning navigator newsletter and now a member of the rv marketplace so if you'd like to subscribe to tony's newsletter and get more of his research who would not, all you need to do is head over to the Marketplace tab, which is right at the top on the RV homepage. And you just scroll down and look for Tony's smiling face. So we're super excited about that. Hey there, Tony. Welcome. What's up, Maggie? How are you doing today? Thanks for the intro and for announcing my presence on the Marketplace.

1:16I think that's going to be cool. I'm already getting some feedback for it. So it's a fun project to work on. Yeah, awesome stuff. And listen, you're so helpful in terms of helping frame how you approach this with some discipline as a trader. We talked about that all throughout, especially the last half of the year when you really nailed it on the rally. And we've seen that, right? This is still the thing we're talking about. If you were lucky enough to catch it and you wrote it up, how do you get out? How do you protect yourself? How do you protect your profits? And then here we are at a new year.

1:49How do you position for what's coming? Because all of that uncertainty, all of the things that everyone was so divided about last year still seem like they're in play. So let's walk through a little bit of what at least happened today. And it feels like we're in a little bit of a holding pattern. We had stocks lower across the board. The NASDAQ up for most of the day. It faded into the close, hung on in positive territory, but only just. Bond yields have been in a holding pattern, it seems like, pinned around that 4 % on the 10-year. Ahead of the inflation data that's coming on Thursday, we had oil up, crypto down.

2:26Big news on those fronts as well. So what's top of mind for you this week? Oh, boy. Maggie, there's so much on my mind. It's the beginning of a new year. And for me, dry powder is king until I get an angle on what the flavor of the year is going to be and how the horse race is going to end up to get some vision on that. Right now, I have no vision whatsoever. I come into the year fairly positive stocks with the idea that we're going to be lowering rates. We just went through a significant rate hiking period where the S &P got batted around quite a bit. And I think that we're going to come out of it sort of unscathed into a reasonably strong economy, into a strong market.

3:13So I'm kind of looking for things like that to happen. I am not going to say that I've got evidence that they are going to happen yet. We got a little bit lucky with NVIDIA, the number one chip maker, AI chip maker, coming out with a new graphic chips for AI personal computers, stocks up 10 % in a couple of sessions, kind of setting the tone again potentially for big tech to perform. I mean, and it's not even out of the gate with any gains yet. We saw what was interesting this year was that there was so much positive sentiment going into the end of the year that it squashed the Santa rally. Yeah.

3:49Right. So those days right around Christmas into New Year's that are usually kind of light volume float away days for the S &P that didn't transpire. We had a couple of negative days in a row, which made total sense with how positive and sentiment we were and how bullish we were heading into the end of the year. You know, there was the I don't know if it's the tail end of the move or so far the tail end of the move that we caught, you know, from from buying the dip around forty six hundred, et cetera. So I'm looking to see what way the traffic is going to start flowing, Maggie, right? It hasn't really started yet.

4:22There's only a couple of sectors in positive territory this year. That's cannabis, health care. Uranium is a really interesting story for the year. Utilities are up on the year so far. There's really nothing going on. And on the negative side, we've got a lot of solar stocks and a lot of basic materials, right? Commodity sector has gotten off to a rough start of the year. We already saw Saudis cut prices to their local Asian clients that said oil back pretty good to the bottom of the 70, 75 range. So there's some cross currents going on. There's some adjusting going into the beginning of the year.

4:55We've got CPI coming out at the end of this week. And if the past is any indication of what we could be in for, which sometimes is the case in markets, It feels like the markets decided last November that inflation data was not going to be an issue going forward. And the last two data points we've got on inflation confirmed that, and the markets seem to like it. The inflation data comes out, bonds look over, and since there's going to be no more dislocation, bonds are looking to rally. They're kind of looking to resume that trend that we saw at the end of last year. So with that in mind, I'm really, I've got my eyes wide open, Maggie, and I'm looking to see where we're going to make some money this year because I haven't figured that out just yet nine days into the year.

5:42Yeah, well, you know, which is a good point in and of itself, right? I like your statement, you got to keep your powder dry because, you know, there is, we've talked about this with Denise Schill before, there is an instinct to do something. We have to do something. And sometimes just sort of waiting and waiting until things fit into your framework is the right thing to do. You don't always have to be in action. So let's sort of dig into a couple of these things and talk a little bit about what you would want to see. So the technology thing is super interesting because especially, like you said, we have seen NVIDIA moving up.

6:18And that is the stock that is like the poster child for the overvalued MAG7. We can't see how there's – why would you buy that when there's so many stocks that are cheap? And every time I hear that, though, we sort of see that leadership. We are going into earnings period. We have a little bit of relief on the interest rate front. How are you approaching – how are you thinking about technology? What would you need to see to say, I'm going to put some money to work in technology? Or is that just an area that you think because of valuations, it's something you'd stay away from? How do you think about valuations versus momentum?

6:56Yeah, Maggie, great question. You know, I'm into performance, right? That's what I'm trying to do for my clients is line them up in the sectors that are going to perform the best during the course of the year. So I've got technology. I've actually got semiconductors on the bullish side of my radar screen going into the year with the idea that, you know, this could be not as difficult as it sounds. Where NVIDIA, you know, what happened this year so far? Like, let's be make believe I'm eight years old and we're explaining it, you know, to our eight year old or to our dog or something like that. What's gone on so far?

7:29The leading name in AI has come out with some new technology and the stock took off like a bat out of hell. OK, so now if we're going into a year where rates are going to go lower, right, let's start off with that attitude or that idea. If you're not if you're if you're bullish technology and you're not in semiconductors or NVIDIA now that they've got good news on the tape and that we're staring down the barrel of rate cuts as far as the market is concerned, you're you have got no excuse to miss this trade. None whatsoever. Right. So that's just something to think about to get started. I like it because it fits with my 1994-95 analog that I feel like a little bit like the market resembles, right?

8:11Doesn't exactly repeat itself in markets history, right? But it rhymes. So if we go back to 94-95, 94, we were adjusting interest rates to a hot economy, a little bit of inflation, higher interest rates. 95, the market was flat on that year. Excuse me, the market was, which week was the flat year? Down a percent or something like that. And then the next year, as we adjusted to higher interest rates, which actually wound up flattening out to lower, the stock market took off and it had the tailwind of the technology craze. The dot-com bubble was being birthed, right, into the mid to late 90s. So this analog is kind of cool for me to see that NVIDIA is taking the lead now.

8:53Now, I like the idea that we've got both an AI and cryptocurrency rebirth as the sort of technology tailwinds to a potential tech leadership rally, right? We could see that in 2024. Why not? So, you know, that's how I'm looking at that, Maggie. I don't want to be a dead horse, but let's not make it more complicated than it sounds, right? If we move a little bit of money towards this at the beginning of the year to see how we're doing, that seems like the smart thing to do. Yeah, you're sort of stepping into it, right? You're not sort of diving in. And I think this is something that became very clear at the end of the year about getting married to a narrative.

9:30It doesn't matter if you think you worry about or you missed NVIDIA. There are people who are going to have a longer-term view that are going to talk about the fundamentals of this. And absolutely, that's why we have them on, and you need to cover that and pay attention to that. I know you do that all the time. Some of them are your colleagues that you talk to. There are going to be people who are knee-deep in those earnings reports, unearthing some really important things. But in the meantime, there's also – you can't be anti-things. You need to pay attention to what the price action is telling you is the message that you always deliver to us.

10:01And I think that that proved really powerful at the end of last year. So it's interesting. And I point this out because you know we have camps that hate the technology story. They hate the crypto story. We know because Rao likes them and he gets a lot of pushback for that. But he'll also say he has a very long view. So very interesting how you're going to have to navigate this. But I like you laying out the things that you're looking for in order to fall into line, in order to get behind that. So it sounds like you're not too worried about the inflation number coming out later this week. I'm not, Maggie.

10:37I feel like we've seen a couple of things happen. First, we've seen the market back on November 14th of last year when October CPI came out. That was literally – I mean we saw the tire marks all over the tape. That was the one print that the whole market was keying on saying, this should be the coast is clear print for inflation, as in we're about to throw this threat out the window. That's what we got. That was the day that markets exploded. The dollar imploded. Treasuries took off like a bat out of hell. Rates are getting crushed. The market loved that. 17 sectors of the S &P took off in two sigma breakout status.

11:16That's the breakout that we followed through for the rest of the year. For the next six weeks of the year, it was follow through from that day. So we got another CPI number since then. Same result. The market is like, coast is clear, right? There's no inflation coming at us. Coast is clear. Market goes up. I feel like that's kind of what we got the beginning of yesterday. Obviously, the NVIDIA headline held cheaper oil is now a good thing for markets as a cheaper input price. But it could be the way that we're getting started again. So that's the only thing on my mind. That could be the way that this pans out at the very beginning of the year anyway.

11:52Yeah. Yeah. So on that cheap oil, we're getting a lot of questions in on oil. The macro butler asking, what do you make of the chart of WTI struggling to hold above 70? Chart looks like crap. Absolute crap. Frank Capillary has got a great chart out where he highlighted a huge head and shoulders pattern in crude oil that I kind of had to cover one eye and look a little cross-eyed to see. But it's there. And the sort of neckline is right around$68, $870, right? I'm not going to pick the exact number, but you can make a case that below there, the crude oil chart is a crash pattern, right? And now I'm sitting up in my chair because there's really not that many people around that think crude oil is going to crash.

12:35And it may not, but that's sometimes when the trade is really ripe to happen. So that's something that I'm going to be on my toes and watching very carefully. I don't think that we're set up for that situation, but it wouldn't shock me to catch the market off guard like that, especially right at the beginning of a year. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

13:21is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus.

14:02Yeah, it's funny you say that. Raoul and Julian got together for their first macro insider discussion of the year, and they discussed the outlook for oil. Let's have a listen to that, and we'll talk on the other side. Yeah, I've been relatively negative oil for a while. Well, it's two scenarios. One is it actually could break down even lower. And there's a probability that it actually gets down to 40 bucks if that's a kind of big head and shoulders top that's forming. If not, I kind of err towards what Gillian's saying is it probably is not as bullish as people expect. I mean, don't forget, we got such a big loss of demand from China.

14:38Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, that's the swing factor in oil, is Chinese demand is just not there. and european demand's not strong so i mean the u.s can't be like crazy right so there's no there doesn't seem to be any shortages or anything that would give you reason to think that it really explodes sure unless you get dollar weakness right whenever raul and julian even appear to be agreeing on something it's worth paying attention because as our regular viewers know They don't often, but looking for those points of agreement and then the points of real disagreement are always what make the conversation so valuable.

15:19They do them every month. You can see the full interview. They do an accounting of what they learned and got wrong in 23, which is super interesting, as well as their 24 Outlook, as much as any of us can have one in this very difficult environment that's sort of full of fog and uncertainty. It's available on our website. If you are not a member, go to realvision.com to sign up. So, Tony, we have a question. We've got a lot of questions, as I mentioned, on oil, but I like this one from Boris. Let me read this. Let me scroll down and find it. We've seen a strong U.S. economy, a war in Europe and the Middle East, but the oil price does not react to the upside significantly.

15:57Is there any scenario that a significantly rising oil price would become real, or is rising oil a narrative from the past? That's a great question. And I think that as much as we hate to accept it, put it this way, that last oil rally to 95 sort of preceding the Hamas attacks when it felt like the Middle East was really going to be a heating up geopolitical cauldron type of thing. I mean, I know I thought that and I'm not a political analyst or a biologist. I don't know anything, right? I can follow markets. So it was really interesting to see that rally get snuffed out while we had pretty low inventories.

16:40The spreads were backward aided. The market was kind of set up for success there. And just as Boris pointed out, the market is pricing World War III risk at zero. It's pricing Middle Eastern conflict at a football game, like no rougher than a football game. And so if you look at that, that's what the Treasury market is pricing. That's what the oil market is pricing. So who the hell am I to say, well, you got to be careful of$95 oil again. I don't think that we have to be careful about that at all anymore. Right. I mean, the Saudi Arabia just lowered prices to do their Asian clients a favor. Right.

17:17I don't think they could have hung on anymore, charging them the premiums that they were charging. So if that's the case, then they're and they're adjusting. you know it seems like there's plenty of oil around to sort of at least keep the market supplied at last sale prices for sure you know and like i don't really get bearish down here at the bottom of the range but i don't really have an opinion that it can rally from here either so i'm spectating with no money at risk in the energy department right now yeah super super interesting and you're right i mean a lot of people scratching their head because you would think this would be right but you know as you say you got to follow that price action a lot of people focused on i I think Raoul and Julian mentioned it as well, China's economy.

17:56If they're not in and participating and you don't get demand coming from there, it's kind of hard for a lot of people to see the upside. But we always revisit this because as we know, especially when it comes to geopolitics, things change in a minute. So we've always got to keep it on our radar. Got a question about gold. Doesn't look good yet. Do you think we could see a retest of 1970 or even lower, 1 ,970? Andy? You know, there's another commodity that's testing the bull's metal right here. You know, like gold is one of those things that you're like, oh, great, we're at all time high prices.

18:31This is spectacular. And that was a flash in the pan and that was over really quick. And then we recovered and made another push toward that high and failed at a lower price. Right. And now we're right back into prices that the market is used to. But the market's definitely probably excited that we made that new high, probably complacent, probably still long. And to me, gold looks a little bit vulnerable. And I can't really get there because I would need the dollar to rally sharply for gold to break down in my head. And I don't see that happening right now. So I have got that conflicting conversation in my head.

19:09But gold certainly does feel like a commodity that's like, oh, OK, we pulled back below 2K and that's fine. And then all of a sudden, whoa, we broke 1950, the moving averages, and now there's$150 sell-off. Okay, now we're$1 ,800 gold, and I think that's fine, and there's no bid for it there either. And it just feels like that scenario is totally possible after trading an all-time high, and the market said, no follow-through whatsoever, none. So you have to think that now a downside episode is at least in the cards. It's been so frustrating to people who have been watching that gold chart and really looking for a breakout.

19:47We get questions all the time on it. Doug asking, any idea what caused the huge jump in uranium stocks today? You mentioned they were ripping as we came on. Put it this way, it's really hard to get real-time color, news, and find your liquidity in the uranium market. It is not crude oil, as you can tell. It's like trading this invisible commodity that people don't even know what drives it. Other than right now, we know that we've got a massive inventory deficit and we've got utilities that are inherently short uranium. And if they want to keep the lights on at their baseload power generator run by nuclear, they have to pay the next offer in uranium.

20:32And so while there really isn't much inventory lying around, there are fewer and farther between offers in uranium. And we just saw today, you know, Sprott Physical Trust, which is still trying to take uranium off the markets, just trades to an all-time high. Yeah. So we've got - Tony, I just want to jump in. It looks like the SEC grants approval for Bitcoin ETF listing on all registered national security exchanges. The SEC tweeting this out. We're just confirming it. Our folks think this is the news that we were waiting for. But that is a big deal if that's the case. So just wanted to put a pin on that.

21:14We're going to make sure that that is absolutely and follow it. And you know we've got a lot of stuff coming on that. So sorry, I was like half paying attention to the end of what you said about uranium. But I just want to circle back on that point that uranium is extremely opaque. We've done a lot on this. We have some people who really follow this very closely. I think it's a great time to have them back on. But you do have to be careful because you can't track it in the same way. Does that introduce a lot of risk in it to you? Or do you, once again, follow that price action in the same way?

21:49Well, yeah, sure. It does introduce some risk because anytime I walk onto a trading floor and I don't know what price the commodity is that I'm trading is trading at, I get a little bit worried. On Bloomberg, there's a weekly print that goes up in U308, which is the actual physical price that trades for the real uranium. So that's somewhat comforting. At the same time, we're in this sort of parabolic part of the move where you can have confidence that the price isn't going to implode unless you hear that a whole bunch of utilities decided to shut their nuclear reactors down and say, you know what, we're going to take a pass on this baseload power altogether.

22:26There's almost a 0 % chance of seeing that, right? So the market is in that scenario where you're like, oh, yeah, there are just buyers and there's not a lot of inventory around. At the same time, that goes from something that fixes itself very, very quickly in commodity markets, right? There's no cure for high prices like higher prices. And all of a sudden, you find some supply, and then there's a reversal. And I always have to be careful, Maggie, because you and I don't know a damn thing about uranium. We barely know where to find the price, and we're talking about it on a financial news network.

23:00So we barely have an idea of what's going on, but we're talking about it in a very bullish case. To me, there's the risk right there. There's going to be positioning risk alongside this trade. Once everybody gets in, as we always say, Jared Dillian always says, once all the assholes are in, then we've got something to worry about. So that said, I'm on my toes. When there's not public disclosure and free floating prices on exchanges, you got to proceed with a little bit of caution. But if you have the risk appetite and it's money that you can afford to lose and you're just going for the momentum play, certainly.

23:36But for everyone else who's looking at this as part of their commodity basket, just be careful. So here's a good scenario to go over what just happened in uranium. Into the end of the year, while the Santa rally was fading, it was actually selling off during those several days, there was a bit of a sell-off in uranium, right? URA, the ETF, had been trading up to a new high, and then it backed off into moving averages. And one day, I got all these alerts, and everybody was like, what's going on? What happened in uranium? And I looked around. I didn't see anything. I was like, what happened? Somebody made a sale, right?

24:07There's nothing going on. Somebody sold some, and now it backed off into support. So what you want to see, though, from there is you're keeping an eye on price action saying, I don't want to see this thing collapse now because then I got a problem. Then I know that there's something wrong. So what happened immediately in the wake of that? A new high in spot uranium prices, a reversal in uranium miners, and they're back on the run on the upside again. I'm just saying as a bull, that's what you needed to see just there, and you got it. So that was a good development. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners.

24:39We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.