#962 - Will Tech Earnings Deliver? with Dale Pinkert

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0:36Will tech earnings deliver? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. With me today is Dale Pinkert, trading coach at TradeGate Hub. Hi, Dale. How are you? I'm good, Maggie. Great to be a pinch hitter because when you come in as a pinch hitter, everything's on the line. Oh, my gosh. Well, you thrive in that environment. But Dale's referring to the fact that we originally had Dave Massa, who's going to join us, but he had something come up, unfortunately. So he had to. Fortunately, Dave had something come up. But fortunately for us, yes, unfortunately, it turned out fortunately because Dell is kind enough to step in.

1:13And I'm so glad you did because it is a Monday. We have a very busy week, a lot of big earnings, especially in tech. We have a Fed meeting, a jobs report Friday. We've got a stock market that's rallying again. The S &P 500 looks like it's going to close at another record high. We have the NASDAQ up 1%. Well, I think it's actually going to settle up there. Bond yields edging lower, dollars slightly higher. But very interestingly for keen listeners, regular listeners, which I hope you all are, if you were lucky enough to catch Dale the last time he was on, you basically laid out this scenario for us, Dale.

1:48You told us levels. You kind of made the case why in the short term you felt like there could be this move to the upside. So I want to start with the S &P 500, and then we'll talk about some individual tech names, break out a couple of them. But how are you viewing this? This is kind of the scenario you laid out, isn't it? Yeah, the 4 ,800 breakout. So now people have to be aware of that 4 ,800 number. You don't, if you're a bull, you don't want to see closes back under 48. There's a little change if people pull up their daily S &P charts and NASDAQ charts. Momentum wasn't confirming last week.

2:28It was on intraday, like four hour, two hour confirmed highs. and the new highs that we're making here are not really confirming. So, you know, I think we're in a blow off and the opening line is, will tech earnings deliver? Maybe what's really important, Maggie, is will J-PAL deliver? Yes. In fact, there are some talk that you need it all to come together because, you know, the market's priced such that it seems like it's a little vulnerable to negative news or any kind of negative surprise. So you need to have the earnings line up. You need to have the Fed and J-PAL, I guess, not be bearish, right?

3:10And we've got some economic data coming, too. So it looks like it's all got to line up. Yeah, I mean, it's a great week not to trade. Okay, I mean, there are so many binary events out there that unless you're really nimble and unless you're really quick or unless it's a position that you have leads on, that why be a hero? Yeah. Prudence over valor. And I thought most of it would be over by Wednesday with the Fed. But if there's an NFP, that's another red number on Friday. So what you have to do in this environment is just go with your big levels if you're going to trade and trade smaller. And there are a couple of things going on that the Fed might deliver.

3:57It looks like the market's looking for a dovish J-PAL. I'm not sure, but they're taking the dollar down, the market's rallying, yields are falling. It sure seems like the market's anticipating maybe not a rate cut, but at least during the press conference, dovishness. Now, if they don't get it, I think the market's going to be pretty disappointed. And so, you know, that's a great observation because so much of it is how they're how they're set up, you know, how they're set up going into it. By the way, I love this. Someone said Paul just said coach is more than just a pinch hitter. He's the DH for the RV chat designated hitter.

4:42We agree. I could play every day. Exactly. So, okay. So let's, let's talk a little bit about, I do want to focus because it seems like once again, tech, the Mag 7 are kind of leading this or certainly at least technology. Let's, let's, let's re up again on Apple because, you know, you were, you talked about it last time you were feeling bearish about Apple, but then you were careful. And because you always protect yourself, you didn't get killed by Apple. What are you looking at now? Well, you know, I did lose money on January 180 puts. It went right to the strike right before the upgrade. And then someone asked me, well, Dale, what about Apple?

5:23One more rip and then you sell it. And I wasn't sure. I thought, you know, let's see what this rally once we have a breakout, what it has in it. And I'm not impressed with what it had in it. We didn't make a new high like many other tech stocks did. We have the potential of a failing rally, double top. And even if the S &Ps continue their rally, even towards the 5 ,000 number, the big round number of 5 ,000, I will look to short apple on that rally. Wrong on closes over 200. Okay, you are back. So you froze, I froze, but I could still hear you. Okay. And now I'm not sure. I think we're on Frozen now.

6:12Yeah, we're on Frozen. Okay, great. Okay. Okay, super. So bear with us, everyone. The other thing I'm going to ask Brian to look at, and Super Mario is behind the wheel today too, is whether this is the system or is it me? Because they are doing some work in my area. So, Brian, let me know if it's overall trouble, if it happens again, or if it's just me because I can always rejoin or move. Anyway, real time, folks. We are not AI or recorded. This is real time and this is how you know stuff happens. So, okay. So Apple, you were one more rip. They asked you, and I think you said you were not impressed.

6:46You have not been impressed by what you've seen. I'm not impressed. It didn't make new highs. The markets making new highs were, you know, finishing about unchanged on the day in Apple. And I'm willing to sell strength in the next week or so. and my stop loss would be over the first high at 200. Because if it fails from here, I expect a 180 test and then sharply lower. So it's worth a shot to me since it didn't act well towards the end of the week and it's lagging. So if the S &Ps continue and yet Apple again cannot take out 200, that's a tell to me to get short. Okay. And is there a level that you would look at that you would be interested in buying Apple at?

7:38Like when you're saying a sharp move lower, that's got to be, I guess, significantly below where we are right now. 160. Okay. Wow. Under 180, it's a simple measured move. The range is$20 from$200 to$180. Under 180 takes it back to the October lows. Okay. Now, what about Intel? That's another tech name you have your eye on. Why are you interested in that one? Well, you know, Intel did participate. You know, I was talking to Brian before the show. He actually had doubles in less than a year in Intel. And we had a downgrade on it late last week. And, you know, I talked to a lot of smart people too, Maggie.

8:22Not every thought I have is original. I believe in intelligence gathering. and you probably learn a lot from your guests. But I got a text on X from this guy who was a floor trader, late 70s, all the way through the 80s. He was even on the floor during the 87 crash. And he told me that he just had a flashback that in the year 2000, Intel received this downgrade and it actually was the beginning of the peak for NASDAQ stocks. So, you know, you either have to be a market historian or an older trader to have seen and lived and that that would come back to you. So that was an important signal in 2000 for the dot-com bubble.

9:16So just something to pay attention to. I think Apple's done. You know, that's a pretty, that's like Oracle. really tough to repair this kind of damage in a chart. And so Intel goes, perhaps some attack follows. So there are cracks. You have Intel doing this. You have Apple not making new highs. You're starting to get some divergences. The VIX is not at 12 anymore. We continually make higher lows than VIX. So I think there's at least a correction setting up between here and 5 ,000 in the S &Ps in the next week or so. That's so interesting. Yeah, and to be clear, this is what I love about the conversation we had.

10:05You're giving your short-term perspective, and then there's a sort of, you know, I'm going to call it medium because it's not long-term, but then another regime after that that you're keeping an eye on. So when you talked to us last time, you gave the conditions why you could see this run up, this continuation or this reach higher. But then after that, at certain levels and certain conditions, you're worried about a regime change. I want to get in Tesla before we move on to bonds because I think they're connected. Tesla is – you got a lot of questions on that last time. We get questions on Tesla all the time.

10:37Some of you folks are just hardcore Tesla people out there. We got questions about the Tesla chart. Some people – and I think you said you didn't love it, right? You didn't love the Tesla chart? I said it would take out the October lows and trade under 200. So what are we looking at now? You know, if the market's overbought now and could be in for a correction, why do you want to buy an underperformer? Didn't you learn that lesson last week? Because CESLA's been underperforming for a while. So, you know, I think there's a chance for, you know, there could always be recovery, but I don't think this is a low.

11:13It could see 150. So, you know, I'm not going to try and call a bottom in Tesla because that was a very damaging day as well, closing under 208, 200. So it would have to get back over 200 for me to say a recovery is underway. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo.

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12:45yeah that's so interesting when you're in a when you're a tesla investor very important to separate out if you are just a long-term believer in either some of what they're doing in elon musk himself or and but and if you're a short-term investor very different story those two groups of people have very different ideas you know more than the stock itself uh i think that viewers should learn that the market gives you messages. And when a stock during a bull move in equities is not performing, there's something wrong. If something cannot perform with a tailwind, what happens when the headwinds come?

13:27Or if they can't knock something down with a headwind, just wait till that headwind dissipates and then it will take off like a rocket. So you really have to diagnose the relative strength compared to the rest of the market, compared to different sectors, to have your preferred longs and shorts. You want to buy the strength when it pulls back. And you want to sell the weakness when it rallies in sympathy with the strength. So, and Tesla has been giving that message for quite some time. We haven't made new highs in Tesla in, what, a year and a half or so? and everything else has moved on to new highs.

14:12So there was a message in that. Yeah, that's a great point. Oliver has a really good question, and I want to bring it in here while we're talking about tech. Question for Dale. How relevant do you think Apple and Intel are to the market when they are not the leaders anymore like they were back in 2000? Are you watching NVIDIA and Meta as key stocks to watch for a pullback? Of course, they're like the dot-com stocks in 2000. And perhaps Intel peaked a month or two before the dot-coms begin to cave. So I think they are important because although they're not the superstars and going parabolic, they still have an awful lot of market cap.

14:59And if they sink, it's going to have an impact on the market. Sometimes the generals will retreat before the troops and watch the battle from the mountaintop. Okay. And I think that Apple and Intel are a couple of generals that are retreating from, you know, missiles like NVIDIA. You know, could go to 700. I don't know where the top is. I've learned my lesson in NVIDIA. and it was the relative strength and I tried to short it. I'm going to go with, you know, what I've learned over the years and not try and be a hero. I always got tempted to do that, but trade short the weakness. And if I can't get long things that are becoming parabolic, just let them go.

15:54There's always another trait. Fantastic. I've said it before and I'm going to say it again. you have some great turns of phrases, but I love that because I think we can all really wrap our head around that. And you're not the only one who says that about NVIDIA. There's some people who really closely watch the tech space and they are also kind of have a conversation and then have to carve out NVIDIA because it's kind of taken on a life of its own. And there's so many folks in it that are pushing it higher. It's a little hard to fight that trend, a little hard to fit that into a framework. Related to this, Paul asking, Coach, could earnings miss on if earnings, well, could earnings misses on Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon this week bring a severe market correction.

16:37I'm going to throw my own wording in there, Paul, and say we talked about how there are all these things happening this week. What kind of weighting are you putting on the earnings news maybe versus the Fed and payrolls? Could that in itself spark a big pullback in the market? Do stocks miss? I have another saying that people who buy headlines today sell newspapers tomorrow. So I think that tech has to deliver good earnings because a lot of it's already in the price. I think that the Fed has to be a dove because the market is expecting them to be a dove. And I think that the market would like to see the employment numbers start to mitigate.

17:27and that's going to be an important number too. And that's why I said, you know, it's really a good week to just be a spectator and just wait for your levels instead of trying to predict how the market's going to react to all of these things. No one knows. So let the market react and then react to the reaction is what I'd advise on a week like this. And again, it's okay to sit it out until next week. And you won't have as much volatility to contend with. And you're not going to miss everything. And if you miss something, hey, get used to it. I miss things every day. And you can't beat yourself up about missing things.

18:14The most important thing you could do is try and trade with probability on your side. And you could throw your charts away during the Fed presser, okay, or an NFP number or the BOE or the Treasury mix or the offerings that we have coming, I think, tomorrow. So there's a lot of two-way action, but you could still have a macro view of what you would do. Say the Fed is dovish and the S &P has rallied to 5 ,000, but Apple is not taking out 200 on that rally. I'll do something. But to do something now in front of it is not real prudent. Dangerous, yeah. So we have so many good questions. I just want to, before I get into it, let me ask you your view.

19:09We're going to skip around here a little bit. Let me ask you your view on the dollar, because we talked last time about how important the dollar is and getting that right matters. So what are you looking at for DXY? Well, I've been talking about 105 for a while, and we've kind of inched our way up there since the last time I was on. This chart was interday. So this is how I'm going to trade the dollar. Okay. I have two levels, where I'd be a buyer and where I'd be a seller. So if the dollar rally continues, which I think may not happen the way yields are acting today, I'm a seller at 105. That would be pretty close to the 107 level I forecasted in euro.

19:56We got under 108 today. We still closed lower. And if they sell the dollar off, which is the way it kind of acted today with the metals and the market and everything up, I'm a buyer at$102.50 to$102 looking for$105.00. So I'm either a seller at$105.00 or I'm a buyer at$102.00 looking for$105.00. If we get to$105.00, I'm a seller looking for new lows under park. So those are my two levels to trade this week. And I'm fine with either. If we take the dollar down, there's some pretty positive seasonals in the dollar for the month of February. Commercials aren't as short the dollar. Big specs are real short the dollar.

20:53So I still expect a squeeze up to 105. Awesome. And you're looking at the peso too, the Mexican peso. Is that on your chart, on your list? What are you looking at there? It should be there. So what's the biggest political hot potato that you hear about on the news every day? The border. Yeah, for those living in the U.S., you all know. Yeah, the border, porous border. So here's a weekly chart of the peso. And it really bottomed last fall, last summer. and recently we've had a pullback and put in a higher low. It's amazing how charts can begin to identify what might be a fundamental situation. And this is a pretty constructive chart because you have a couple of places where you can manage risk, which is important.

21:42So you might have some type of dip to buy it around the 17 level and risk maybe 1660 on a closing basis Because if we get back over 1740, that's a 50-week moving average, that could take it all the way up towards 1980, back to the breakdown. And what I'm thinking is what might be the catalyst could be a border closure, because if there is a border closure, the duress and financial liability of handling the refugees is transferred from us to Mexico for a while. And Mexico, people are very bullish. You can tell the peso has been appreciating for quite some time going back to 2020 when it was 25 to the dollar.

22:37And, you know, we got down to about 16. So, you know, it's not a secret anymore that Mexico is benefiting from reshoring manufacturing. Recently, the Mexican government has made it more difficult to become for expats to come there because there's a lot of gentrification taking place where expats, Americans are moving down. They're driving up the cost of housing for the locals. and if we shut the border, that's going to make people a little worried about the pesos. So I think there's a special situation that could be driven by politics and makes the peso vulnerable for a big pullback, which would be a rallying the way it's paired USD-MAX.

23:27We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing. very interesting and we've been talking about how it's an election year and that is a big issue that we're all going to be having when did you ever think president biden would be willing to close the border dale i long ago learned to never try to anticipate what happens in washington literally a job tried to convince me to move there a long time ago and i said no thank you but everybody everybody knows that's how i feel about uh about all things related to washington So we have a question from the macro butler.

24:07Dale, what do you think about a long Dow short NASDAQ pair trade from here? I'm going to make sure I get that right. Long Dow short NASDAQ pair trade from here. Well, that would be fading my belief in relative strength and weakness. So he wants to short the strength because there's more air in it and be long the Dow against it. Uh, the Dow's been weaker, uh, doesn't have the kind of overbought RSI structure. So, um, uh, it wouldn't be my style to do that. If it was, I'd be shorting the Nikkei and buying China. That's what it's like. Okay. You know, I mean, you're buying something, you're shorting the parabolic move in Japan and you're buying the hope of China that it bought.

25:00So, uh, I wish him luck. it could work. It's just not my style. I would short the weakness. So Roger asking as a follow up, and I know Ralph, you're interested probably in those comments on Mexico, since you're always asking international, and I saw your question we'll get to in a moment, but Roger asking, would you Dale also be interested in Mexican equities? You know, it's a lot of equity markets do better when their currency is under pressure. Ask the people in Turkey. So I've talked to people in Turkey and I go, how do you deal with that kind of depreciation of a currency? And he told me I buy stocks because as the currency collapses, stock prices are a pretty good hedge.

25:47We'll see if that happens here in the U.S. if we have a big bear market. It's an interesting observation. Great question. Great question, by the way, Roger. And Ralph liked it too, as I suspected. So Ralph asking, what are your thoughts on the British pound gold in India? That's a lot. But let's start with the British pound. And if you have a comment on the other ones, we'll take it. But how are you feeling about the pound right now? Well, the pound's been really acting stubbornly strong compared to the euro. And that's why the euro pound has been declining. Euro's been the weakness compared to the pound.

26:22I believe there's a BOE meeting here. And the fact that it doesn't go down makes me sense that they may want to take out the stops over 128 first and trade towards 29. Maybe it's going to happen with a dovish Fed and maybe not as dovish BOE. But then after 29, I think the pound could sell off pretty good back down to 23. I just think there might be a short squeeze left in cable before it joins the decline with the dollar marching to$1.05. Hope that helps. I think it does. How about gold? Because you sent a gold chart over. That was another one of Ralph's questions. And I think we have a chart of gold.

27:11What are you thinking about gold? All right. Well, gold's closed better than what we're looking at right here. I just don't think it's ready, Maggie, and I still think that they're going to flush the longs out under 200. 1940 is about 61.8 back. That's 1938. The shares finally came to life a little bit, but they're so underperforming. I think there'll be lows in the metals in February or March. I'm not short, but I'm not long here. I'm being patient to buy the miners in February and March. So not ready yet. I would probably time a gold buy with when the dollar gets to 105. I'll be taking a look at where the metals are.

28:04I wanted to touch on NatGas too, because you sent over NatGas. Yeah, it's a real classic chart. It's called the Widowmaker. There are so many women out there looking for husbands after the trading action we've had in the last few weeks. I'm hiding out, okay? As you should be. As you should be. We've got to protect you, Dale. Anyway, we gapped down. First of all, it's been a grinding decline for people trying to bottom pick this forever. And then we had a capitulation day where we had that gap to the downside. and making that new low and taking out the December low where people bought it, you need closes over three to turn.

28:48But now it's becoming interesting to me because I think we had that capitulation move down at, you know, 203, that low last week. We're taking it out now. And the reason I'm showing a four-hour, oh, it looks like I'm showing the daily. All right, well, as you can see, you see the RSI in the daily. compared to where the RSI was in December. It's a pretty good divergence. And now even on the four-hour and two-hour, we're beginning to diverge. So I am now looking for a low to get long and not be a widow. But you know what? Wait for it to tell you. So this is what you wait for. You haven't seen it all the way down.