In short
Real Vision Podcast Episode Summary
Episode Title
As Crypto Wobbles, Is It Time to Rotate?
Hosts
- Mando: Co-founder of Rekt and author of Mando Minutes newsletter.
- Zeneca: Founder of ZenAcademy and author of Letters from a Zeneca newsletter.
Episode Overview In this episode of the Real Vision Podcast, Mando and Zeneca discuss prevailing themes and narratives in the cryptocurrency market as the sector experiences notable fluctuations. Key topics include Bitcoin and Ethereum's performance, major developments in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like Hyperliquid and Aster, and the broader implications of macroeconomic factors on crypto markets.
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Key Themes and Discussions
Current Market Status
- Crypto Underperformance: Discussion on the current state of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with BTC hovering around $109K and ETH recently breaking below $4K.
- Macro Influences: The hosts explore how gold hitting all-time highs and stock markets experiencing volatility are impacting crypto sentiment. They suggest that correlation with global M2 money supply may be disrupted in the current cycle.
Institutional vs. Retail Trends
- Shift in Investor Base: Zeneca expresses that the current market dynamics seem more institutionally driven than in previous cycles. This has led to different movements and patterns in price behavior.
- Retail Sentiment: The hosts discuss how retail investors may be experiencing panic or uncertainty, particularly with Bitcoin dominance rising back to 60%.
Major Developments in Crypto Projects
- Hyperliquid vs. Aster: Analysis of the competition between decentralized exchanges (DEXs) Hyperliquid and Aster, including an exploration of Aster's recent market performance and implications for Hyperliquid.
- Predictions and Future Outlook: Zeneca shares insights about potential future performance, suggesting that crypto may face some short-term volatility before rebounding as liquidity increases.
Price Predictions
- Short-Term View: The hosts expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to potentially experience further dips, advocating for a cautious approach to trading.
- Long-Term Outlook: Zeneca remains bullish on crypto, expressing confidence that institutional adoption will drive future growth.
Platform Developments
- Plasma Launch: Discussion on the successful launch of Plasma, a platform backed by Tether, which aims to bridge traditional banking and DeFi.
- Acquisition of Upbit: Exploration of Naver's acquisition of Upbit, a significant move that may catalyze further crypto adoption within South Korea.
Prediction Markets
- Emerging Market Trends: Conversation about the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, particularly in light of recent attention from mainstream media.
- Potential for Growth: Predictions on how these markets could evolve and their implications for the overall crypto landscape.
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Key Takeaways
- Market Cycles: Both hosts emphasize the cyclical nature of crypto markets and the importance of being prepared for downturns by taking profits during bullish periods.
- Decision Making: Zeneca highlights the need for patience in trading, suggesting that fewer but more strategic investments may yield better long-term results.
- Stablecoins and DeFi: The potential for stablecoins to revolutionize finance and the importance of DeFi platforms in providing alternatives to traditional banking services is elaborated upon.
- Community Engagement: The need to stay engaged with the evolving landscape of crypto to capitalize on emerging trends and opportunities.
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Conclusion The episode concludes with both hosts affirming a cautious optimism for the future of crypto markets, encouraging listeners to remain informed and ready to pivot as new opportunities arise.
For more insights and to join the discussions, listeners are encouraged to connect with Real Vision and explore additional resources available on their platform.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00For those of us who live in brief crypto, Bitwise is a name you want to know. They've been in the game since 2017 and now manage over 10 billion in crypto assets across 30 different solutions. Index funds, Bitcoin and crypto equity ETFs, on-chain solutions, you name it, Bitwise does it. But here's what I really recommend checking out. Their weekly CIO memo. Every week, CIO Matt Hogan breaks down what's happening in crypto. Like why Bitcoin's up or down, what the big institutions are doing, and the story's flying under the radar. It's sharp, it's free, and honestly, it's one of the best reads in crypto.
0:32Find it at bitwiseinvestments.com forward slash CIO memo. Again, bitwiseinvestments.com forward slash CIO memo. Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto in the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.
1:24Well, hello again. We're back for another episode of Wrecked Vision. Today we have a new co-host, Zeneca, who we've been trying to get on the show for a while, but time zones didn't quite add up. Luckily, this week, I am in Korea. I'm in Asia. So we've managed to get Zeneca on. Most of you know him kind of from the NFT OG days. He has a very, very popular newsletter. Ex-professional poker player, am I right? That's correct. Got into crypto, got into a ton of different things. He's one of the key thought leaders, I think, in the space. We wanted to have him on. Thanks a lot for coming on, Zanika.
2:02Thanks for having me. Yeah, excited for it. So it's been kind of a bit of a wild week in crypto. Traditionally, on a Friday, markets dump. We've seen this pretty much every single week that I've done this show. Today appears to be no exception, although it does feel like the dump's been going on all week. We're back to$109K on Bitcoin. ETH broke through the pretty key level, I would say, of 4K, Solana below 200. It's been not a great week for crypto. And I think a lot of people are scratching their heads as gold hits all-time high. Stocks have been dancing around all-time highs, although have taken a little bit of softness, at least this week.
2:44I think it's been a tough pill to swallow as we've been waiting for a bit of correlation back to Global M2 and people saying, you know, the four-year cycle's over. A lot of key people on the timeline also coming in and saying, you know, we're heading lower. This is it. What's your view, Zeneca? Do you think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves at this stage? I think so. Obviously, it's never fun seeing crypto crash when, you know, stocks and gold and other parts of macro is ripping. But it's not altogether unexpected, this cycle. I think this cycle has just been weird if you compare it to previous cycles.
3:24But if we look at what's happened institutionally, regulatorily, I mean, it's just bullish news after bullish news, basically. And so I'm still generally pretty damn bullish. What you said before about waiting for crypto to sort of catch up to the M2 money supply, I think is something that will probably happen. might just take another few months. Maybe one big difference this time around is the feeling of retail being here is very different to in the past. It really feels like this is the institutional cycle. And that might be why things are just moving a bit differently than we've expected. But yeah, bullishness is not really wavering on my end.
4:05I think that we might have maybe a month or two of CHOP, but rates are being cut. Liquidity is freeing up. money will flow back into crypto i'm pretty positive um sometime in the next day several months yeah i think i kind of said this last week we had g money on last week but my view is that now the fed is in a little bit of a tough position because whatever comes out i feel like they're going to be criticized if the jobs market looks too strong it'll be the idea that he's not going to cut rates and if it's too weak it'll be the idea that he should have cut them um even more aggressively. And this uncertainty around the path, I think, is not really helping.
4:46And you have different people from the Fed coming out each week, giving pretty mixed signals. I just don't think the market is enjoying it. And my personal view is we tend to see that crypto sells off normally just before macro sells off in these sort of moments. So I think we might see now a little bit of a wobble in the stock market, which has just been going gangbusters, hitting all-time high. And crypto has just seen a little bit of a dip. And it's not crazy. Bitcoin is down 3%, 4 % this week. It's not that crazy. But as always, when this happens, altcoins got smashed. You saw big moves in all of the major L1s, which had been having a little bit of an altcoin season.
5:25So we've had Bitcoin dominance now approaching back up to 60%. I don't think it's anything to worry about. I don't think it's anything to worry about, even if we go towards 100K. I think we're just having a slight deviation from this correlation to global M2. I think part of that is probably a bit of technical selling from Bitcoin OGs who just want to follow the four-year cycle. And we're kind of coming towards the end of that. But I do think we're going to see that correlation come back. And I think there'll be a period now where we've underperformed macro and there'll be a period in the next month or so where we outperform macro and suddenly Bitcoin starts to look just like it did back in kind of March when we dumped first, then macro dumped, and then in that macro dump, we outperformed and then we were the strongest bounce.
6:13I think we're going to see something very, very similar here. That's my two cents about it all. Yeah. No, I wouldn't be surprised at all if it plays out like that. I think what you said about Bitcoin OGs maybe selling off is definitely interesting. You see this four-year cycle narrative. There's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy there as well, where people are just convinced in their minds that, oh my God, the top is in November. It's like, look at the last cycle and the cycle before. It's half the sale before then. And people start front running it. And then one thing leads to another. And it doesn't take much uncertainty for the market to continue to dip.
6:47But yeah, I don't fully buy that things are going to play out the same as they did last time or the time before.
7:10Yeah, me too. I think the market structure has changed. I'm sticking to my guns there that this isn't going to be a four-year cycle. Yeah. What about the L1s here? I know, Tristan, you've been more of an ETH guy. Have you moved around bags at all there, like Solana, BNB, Hyperliquid? Like which of these have been kind of your favorite trades here? Or like what are you looking at the most? Yeah, BNB is one I kind of have never really touched over the years, which is obviously something I kind of missed. But Hyperliquid, ETH and SOL, I've always had positions in for the last few years. At the moment, I don't really have much, if any, SOL.
7:48I'm pretty much ETH and HYPE as my two big alt L1 plays. I'm still pretty comfy in that. Obviously, Hype is taking a bit more of a hit now because of Aster and the whole sort of perp-dex war that we're seeing going on. And, you know, everyone seems to be launching one and that's taking a bit of a hit towards Hype's volume. And, you know, Hype has this flywheel where because they have, you know, a whole bunch of tokens allocated for future airdrops, that when their token price is high, a lot of people are using the chain, speculating on getting a bigger and bigger, bigger airdrop. But then as their token price drops, that potential airdrop amount also drops and, you know, attention goes elsewhere.
8:24volume drops and it just, you know, it's one of those cyclical things. So I'm still sitting comfy in hype and ETH. I think ETH has obviously generally underperformed this whole cycle. You know, there's been pockets of months where it's done really, really well, especially around the asset treasury companies last few months, but it hasn't really broken out. Like we've just barely broken all-time highs and I'm still maybe naively, but holding on to hope that we'll smash through at some point and it'll sort of hit some sort of price discovery and maybe hit six, seven, eight, nine K at some point.
9:00Um, yeah. Yeah. Well, maybe we'll break down both of those. Cause there was some news out this week that the sec might be looking at that that headline broke over the last 24 hours that they'd, they'd approached, I think something like 200 different, uh, that's around potential insider trading before them. And some people have, have linked the sell-off in some of these L1s to those DATs being formed and that you could see increased scrutiny about these vehicles and perhaps fines or maybe something worse come to them. And you saw ETH now dip below 4K. I was actually in Korea. I met Tom Lee the other night.
9:43I saw that photo. Yeah, that's pretty cool. Stay in the same hotel, which is pretty cool. But I do think that there is not all DATs were created equal it's very clear that some of these that there is going to be some investigations into them and and there was kind of a little bit of this being like publicly promoted on the time like a lot of people who got into these dat said hey i heard about this early and it was it kind of felt a little bit like this was going to this was going to catch up but um yeah maybe that that is part of the reason why we've seen some of these these this dat trade looks like it might not be as as nice as it as it was yeah that makes sense and then hyperliquid you kind of touched upon so bmb we spoke about it last week that that we might be seeing a bit of a cz season here that we might be getting a pardon that you know binance us might be coming out and then after was kind of breaking last week like we were starting to speak about how some of these stuff was was really doing incredibly well.
10:42And after it hit something like, I think 10 billion or just shy of that, maybe like 8 billion this time last week, it went all the way up to 25 billion, FTV, after that. And a lot of talk about how this is, the Chinese hyperliquid, that they did actually flip hyperliquid, seemingly in a number of metrics, although you never know the validity of some of these metrics, because it's being farmed very, very highly. And, you know, there could be some crime going on. But it did seemingly flip it in revenue, in volume. Although open interest, it still seems like it's with hyperliquid. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try?
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12:25What do you think of this as a vampire attack? It's always slightly surprised me that Hyperliquid kind of had this unassailable lead in perpdexes. Whereas my whole time in crypto, this was like a constant trend of, right, we're going to move to this perpdex and this perpdex. It was GMX to... Do ideas. Yeah. And then there'll be another one on another chain. And then suddenly hyperliquid just, oh, we're only doing hyperliquid now for last year. And then now AST has come through seemingly like multi-chain deposits, very similar in a lot of stuff they say they're going to do. Do you think this is a credible attack here on Hyperliquid?
13:09Yeah, I mean, I think it's, you're right. It's strange that there wasn't, there weren't like any sort of successful vampire attacks before because it's not the most, I mean, it's obviously difficult, but it's not the craziest business model to emulate. And, you know, people could have built something similar. You just implement a token buyback flywheel and put users first and, you know, airdrop a whole bunch of tokens and people will generally love you for it. We've seen that playbook played out so many times in crypto. Obviously, with CZ and Binance backing it, you have one of the biggest titans in the industry sort of saying, hey, guys, this is my thing now, and it's a big deal.
13:45And that's probably why, it's definitely why Asta has done so well. I think it will continue to do well. I think there is certainly, you know, there's no reason why both can't exist successfully is sort of my position. I think we see multiple L1s exist successfully. You see multiple centralized exchanges exist successfully. it will probably take away from some of Hype's potential future growth. Like if we look at one alternate universe timeline where it was literally just Hyperliquid and nothing really else, obviously Hype would have done better in that universe. But I think there is also this universe where is the more realistic one, where there are a few competitors that have moderate to significant market share each.
14:24And as the overall market continues to grow, Maybe Aster is more marketed towards people based in China or Asian countries for one reason or another. And then Hyperliquid is perhaps more global. And yeah, I think they'll both do well. I think obviously attention is everything. And Aster has had the lion's share of attention over the last week. It probably will for the next, I think, 10 days or so. They have their airdrop early October or the next airdrop, which last I checked was like half a billion dollars to a billion dollars, depending on the price, which is a hell of a lot of money. TBD, what happens after that?
15:03I think then we'll start to sort of see a more realistic vision of what the non-farming volume is like and perhaps a little more of the non-potential crime volume. And then we'll know. But yeah, I think both will probably continue to do decently well as long as the market holds up. I agree. I do think that this is a product which, if we're talking about a revenue meta, Herbdexers make a lot of money. But I do think that Hyperliquid, although I'm a massive fan of that team, and I think it kind of sucks because they were probably the most, you know, when we talk about Web3 aligned teams, to put all of their revenue back into buying the token and doing a lot of things via consensus, you know, like voting on different things for the protocol.
15:45They really did feel like they were building it the right way to see a vampire attack or something like that seems, it kind of sucks. But that being said, I do think they kind of left themselves slightly open because like you said, it's not, we've seen perp decks form fairly regularly in crypto before. And this is a very popular vampire attack. And I think that what they had there was, right, maybe they had the chain and they're going to build up various things in the chain. And that hasn't happened as quickly as I think some of the community expected from the hyper EVM and maybe not just doing a perp deck, but maybe doing something to do with lending or a fun competitor, like doing different things on the chain, which could be credible alternatives to other big DeFi protocols.
16:28And that hasn't happened, which meant that it was kind of liable for something like this to happen. And it's happened now. And I agree that maybe, I don't think it, I think Hyperliquid kind of has a flaw because it's always going to be this great product and it still has doing 5 million of buybacks a day or whatever. But I think it has slightly taken away from the upside. That's kind of my view on it. You know what I mean? It doesn't make sense. Now it looks like something that's going to go to 200. And that's maybe a shift for a lot of people who were like, I'm full porting hyperliquid. This is something I'm going to own forever.
17:05Now it feels like, right, I've got to kind of got to be cognizant that it could be a competitive landscape. and it's it's still difficult to work out how involved CZ is but um he was in again an event in Korea today and he mentioned Asta again and you kind of think he might be he definitely invested in it I don't know how how much he is in this thing because it's kind of competing there's there's different narratives on this some of it is like oh he's on blend he's not really involved. He's just an investor through his private fund. And the other side of this is he actually is the one driving this.
17:43And this is going to be the DEX version of Binance, of which he has a significant share. That's going to be the key question. Because if it is CZ continuing to bull post Aster in two months, I think this thing can go a lot higher. I really do. Yeah. Especially as you mentioned before about the potential Trump pardon, which if that comes through than so many doors unlocked for him and his ability to sort of you know uh the u.s market basically uh i checked yesterday it was like 30 35 percent um but yeah which was higher than i was ever expecting um so yeah there's still a good chance this is the thing that i mentioned last week that i picked up on that i thought it might happen and that's what made me more bullish on bnb but i think he he could have a wild next 12 months in my opinion where he could get a pardon And he's obviously like slightly partnering with the World Liberty 5 guys on USD1.
18:38I don't know if you know, but BNB is like the main chain for that. So I think it might be slightly like most of the TVL for USD1 is on BNB. And that it's integrated into things like Asta. So I think that may be the angle for like the eventual pardon to then the... Boy, this really is the crime cycle, huh? Finance coming back in the US. And then he's been very vocal about how Dex, perp Dexes have taken away from centralized exchanges in terms of volumes. And this feels like his attempt at it. And I've said it before, but B &B meme seasons never really worked out. Whenever there was an attempt by B &B to take culture, it just didn't really work.
19:22And it always went back to Solana or even ETH before that. But BNB DeFi, I think they've got a shot because they've just got so much capital. And because they have Binance, they can do pretty credible launches as well of these on Binance. And I just think they've got it for DeFi. They can't really go after DeFi here. And this cycle has been kind of DeFi cycle. So I think they've got a shot. So I'm not failing this. I do think this could be, it was at 25 billion. It's now down to about 18 billion. I agree with you that the next week or two is going to be, I don't think it breaks out because of the airdrop and people will be very, very cognizant of that.
20:09But I'm putting Aster in my holds for the next six months. I think my gut is he's closer to this than he's letting on, that they will challenge hyperliquid, at least at some multiple. Maybe they're going to be 50 % of them, but maybe they could be 2x of them on certain metrics like revenue and volume. It's very clear you can push volume that way. And this is going to be the thing on BNB that they can be like, this is our star. And I think this is something that they can continue to grow. So I'm going to be a long term, buying all dips on Asta, it feels like for me. nice and similarly on bmb i i'm a i hadn't bought bmb for a long time but i bought it on the back of all these headlines because i i think it's going to be crime cycle on there i think he's i think he's really got a shot of pushing a lot of things yeah it makes sense i think um you know it's almost a bit naive for the hyper liquid sort of uh community or team even to not have expected something like this at some point like uh you know they were taking so much market share away or chipping away at market share from these centralized exchanges.
21:20And they've been like the biggest, most successful companies or some of in crypto, as long as I can remember. It makes sense that they wouldn't just sit back and be like, oh yeah, there's a massive on-chain competitor coming along. We're going to do nothing about it. They're fighting fire with fire and they're coming into play. And Aster is a very clear example of that succeeding. Yeah, look, you're making$5 million a day. Somebody's going to come in and be like, hey, I want some of that. and for better or for worse the way that that and we've spoken about this before but like they are using 100 of their revenue to buy back the token and that could be an argument that that may not be the best thing for hyperliquid you know hyperliquid may you know they they may want to build out the chain here and spend a lot of funds in doing that and like you said like maybe it was slightly short-sighted to just be, to not think that this could happen.
22:15And then now they've, if I'm sitting there, I've got to think, right, I've got to, I've got to start building out the chain. I've got to build out this L1 to really be different. I saw that Jeff changed his, his bio the other day from being building, I think it's like building the best perp decks to now building the best L1. I thought that was pretty interesting. Like he must be thinking exactly the same thing. And Jeff is the founder of HyperLiqid. That I've got to now to build this out before ASTIC can do it. And I think they've got a shot at it. I'm sure they can build a lot of really cool stuff.
22:52Yeah. I hope they succeed. I mean, as the crypto native, the whole ethos behind HyperLiqid is really something I resonate with. And you want to see stuff like this succeed long term right exactly they've they've been the most aligned project i think this cycle and yeah but but they they have slightly let themselves exposed so as the market has gone lower there has been this sort of hyper rotation it was right you didn't move everything to bmb uh sucks bmb's gone higher and then on the protocol level it was oh you didn't move everything to after after went from trading up below one billion dollars and now trading at just saw 20 billion so that was you know 10x 20 maker trade yeah been a great trade for a lot of people and then this week we also had plasma which which was the latest oh you didn't rotate everything to to this plasma is the is the l1 they've kind of pitched themselves as a neobank which is, yeah, well, I think there's a lot of talk about here about the idea of being debanked and that we're building a different layer of doing finance at multiple layers with credit cards, almost like checking savings sort of apps, which is kind of separate to the banking system.
24:12This is obviously backed by Tether, which is easily the biggest stablecoin out there. and you were able to get in the pre-sale for this, but I think you also, it was, you had to put funds on the chain and everyone who did that has seemingly done like a 15X, haven't they? It's been a crazy trade. Were you involved in this at all? Yeah, I got in on the, so I didn't get on the head, I can echo raise ages ago. So I missed that one, but I did the pre-sale where you basically, I think you locked up some USDT for a few months on there, to seed their liquidity once they finally launched. And depending on how many stables you bridged over, a small percentage of that you could invest at, I think it was$500 million or something, which is obviously incredibly good given where it's at right now.
25:03So yeah, it's done really well. $12 billion now. So that's a 20x. Yeah, there you go. And because stablecoins are, I think, one of the most successful things to come out of crypto, And there's not been a really good way to invest in them before. Circle, private company, Tether had been a private company. And finally, you have Plasma coming along, which is Tether's child, basically, or Tether is very heavily involved in. And anyone could really get exposure to this. It was kind of a pretty fair way, I would say. There were caps on how much, I think it was half a billion, and they increased it to a billion in deposits.
25:42But, you know, there was a period of, you know, enough time for basically anyone who was paying attention to get involved, which is cool. You like to see stuff like that. And, yeah, I think it's likely to continue to do well, I think. Whenever I sort of explain crypto to someone who's not really into crypto at all and they're like, well, what can you do with crypto? I always find myself reverting to stablecoins and talking about how you can just, you know, anyone in the world can send money to anyone in the world. people in third world countries, people who can't get access to traditional banking systems can now access stable currencies and earn income in ways that was just not possible before.
26:20And I think that we're going to see this continue to just, you know, boom over the next decade, stable coins in general. Yeah. I think that's been the main thing that even the current US government have been really trying to push as well. Like this is going to be the lasting impact I think, which is going to be stable coins being accepted in multiple different places. And the idea of you holding these as almost like a bank account feels like it's the next move. It's very clear that this is kind of what the World Liberty Fire guys are doing with USD1. And then Tether just launched their own kind of US stable coin in USAT, I think it is, USDAT.
27:02And Plasma now feels like how they're going to make this all work. So you basically would log on to an app like Plasma. You'd have a savings account, which gives you DeFi-style yields. So let's say double digits on certain things. And a checking account, I guess, for regular payments. A card of some sort, like a debit or credit card. And kind of this idea that you don't need to go to JPMorgan Chase or a Barclays or a major European or US bank to do anything. I can see this world happening I think people in crypto and I'm sure you're one of them there's constantly this worry about whenever you interact with your fiat crypto system from your fiat banking system, from your crypto banking system you're about to get debanked they're certainly going to go we're shutting you down we don't want to have to deal with this in the US I think it's gotten slightly better but this idea of being debanked in Europe, there's plenty of banks who are just like, we just don't have to deal with this, particularly with some of the new regulation that's come in.
28:10So the idea of this building is a separate layer where they actually maybe have a more friendly relationship with maybe one bank in the fiat world, as well as everything you would possibly need to on crypto rails. I do think that this can work. It feels kind of like when Revolut came out as one of the major neobanks 10 years ago. Now we've got asthma potentially being one and a few other competitors, but that's the route that they're going to go. Yeah, it's incredibly appealing in Australia as well. People, crypto and the banks have had this very antagonistic relationship and it's probably gotten slightly better as well in the last year, but it's still not a place where most people I know are comfortable having that relationship between crypto and their banking.
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28:59And this exists outside of crypto as well. People just hate banks in general. And, you know, for a very long time, banks have had all this power and sort of tried to squeeze every sort of ounce of water out of, you know, the human rocks that exist. And finally, we've got crypto and ways to sort of get some of that power back into the hands of individuals to sort of get better yields on our money, to have more access to our money. So I think that, yeah, this is basically the future. It will obviously take time as different countries have different regulations. And at least in Australia, the banks here have a lot of power.
29:33There's like four major banks that basically have a monopoly. And so they're very entrenched in the government and policy and everything. So they're going to fight back. But over time, I think it's hard not to see this plasma neobank. There'll be other ones sort of winning. And it'll be good for, I think, most people in the world and then most of the financial system. well it seemed seemingly the u.s has been the leader leader in this at the moment the idea that you can use your crypto to apply for mortgages to use this collateral for various different things and like the integrations on payments even the other start i think part of that is the trumps they were probably debanked during this whole period too and they kind of know that this is this is probably a way to sustain themselves even even post uh post the next election.
30:25But it feels as though I think that crypto's kind of gotten a bit tired of just being seen as you can't interact between the two of them. These are going to be the main apps which make those changes. And they're normally backed by people in power or close to people who are in power who can make those sort of partnerships easier on a corporate level. So they're going to get the partnerships on a corporate level with a major European or US bank. And then that kind of makes everything a lot easier. So I think this is going to be a very popular move. It's at 12 billion now. So this has been the new one.
31:07I guess we'll see. The app hasn't really launched yet. So I think we'll see how it does. But for now, it really just feels like Tether's attempt at this neobank we also heard that heather is looking to raise this week at a pretty high-watering valuation of 500 billion dollars which i think within crypto yeah isn't that crazy like they make low low single digits of billions of profit a quarter so this is a this is a company making so So on a bottom line metric, it's not even that crazy. But yeah, it's a lot of money, but they're one of the most profitable companies on earth. It's insane how much money they make.
31:53So I could definitely see them pulling it off. And then that's just, you know, the relationship between Tether and Plasma is very close. And so that's probably more fuel that's just going to make Plasma more likely to succeed. Yeah, I'm going to be buying dips on Plasma for sure. and sort of rotating a bit more money into that. I think as one of the sort of longer holds over the rest of this cycle, I think it's got a lot of the right ingredients to do well. And I think that a lot of people haven't quite caught on yet. Like, you know, you can see it on sort of the timeline a bit where people are going, whoa, what's this plasma thing came out of nowhere?
32:27How do I, you know, I missed the presale. How do I get in on the next one? And people sort of just treating it as like some hot new fancy token without necessarily understanding on a deeper level, like why it's been so successful and where it can go from here. And I think also because it kind of launched, obviously it did very, very well despite the rest of the market. But I think if it had launched a couple of weeks earlier when the market was kind of a bit more frothy, it would have done much better. Makes me believe that it's probably a decent buy, again, on any dips that you want to hold for the next sort of a few months or even a few years really.
33:05Yeah, I kind of agree. It's up 30 % again today, But I agree. If you believe in this idea that these apps can increasingly take more of the TVL in crypto and bridge that gap so that retail can kind of be onboarded slightly easier, which I do agree with, I think these are very interesting plays. I think obviously World Liberty Fly is kind of the other one. I think it always depends on how easy they are to get those sort of licenses, how easy they are to make those sort of deals to enable a lot of the stuff that we've just spoken about. What I'd love to see from something like Plasma is, hey, we've got a partnership with X bank in Europe so that you can seamlessly move money in and out and apply for loans with them or maybe a partnership on regulation with certain countries so that your plasma balance could be used for various different things.
34:03I think these are the things that are going to really mean it so that you actually maybe hold a lot of your funds on these sort of apps rather than in your bank account. Because I might prefer holding money in crypto, just from a UI UX standpoint, like the ability to send money that easily, to track stuff to just overall security. I prefer it. So if these things can start to do the things that my bank could do, I think the sky could be the limit for some of those. No, I'm 100 % with you. I obviously prefer it as well. But I think that we're in the minority on a global level. We're crypto native.
34:42We know how the blockchain works. We feel comfortable self-custodying or mostly self-custodying and all that. I think most people don't have that level of comfort. And that's where something like an app on your phone that has the relationship with an existing bank and has maybe the government sort of recognizing it as an acceptable thing really comes a long way. Because I think the future is that most people who do end up interacting with DeFi and crypto in the world won't be doing it how we do. They won't have a browser extension on their computer. They'll just have an app on their phone that looks like the current banking app.
35:15And they have, like you said, a savings account there. They're earning 10 % yield, which is, whoa, how do you get 10 %? That's crazy. But in crypto, there are mechanisms involved where you can fairly sustainably earn around that amount, at least at the moment. And then you have your card and your other accounts. And it's all just, all the crypto stuff is just abstracted away. It's in the background. People don't, they probably will know that it's crypto related, but they'll feel comfortable because it looks like they're normal banking apps and even more comfortable when, like you say, they have that relationship with an existing bank that they perhaps already use or know of at least.
35:47And yeah, just has that security and safety backing them. Yeah. Well, one, I mean, I'm in Korea now and Korea, I think has been one of these ones where we saw massive crypto adoption, but it didn't quite get the corporate adoption or the political adoption. And we're starting to see that a little bit more now. One thing that I've really taken away with having been here is, and which was a huge headline here but you might not know it is is nav buying update this week um now when when i landed in korea the first thing i downloaded was nav maps and then it was their translate app and you realize that they they are kind of a bit of a tech giant here i wouldn't say this the size of google but like these are big this is a big big i think they call them chai bowls out here like the main conglomerates and this is the first time we've seen one of those move pretty aggressively to to buy up it's kind of i mean the infamous exchange in yes where if you get an up-bit listing everything gets goes full send but they this this now maybe sets the scene for korea really going uh and and and seeing a corporate and political adoption because these major conglomerates kind of run the show here.
37:07So we could see Bitterm, we could see other major crypto companies get bought. Obviously, NAVA, I think, mentioned that they're looking to do a stablecoin on the back of this too. And it feels as though this could be a big wave of adoption as well. Because South Korea, by percentage adoption and even by total value of crypto users, is up there in the top three. It's an absolutely huge country for crypto. So that's been one of the main takeaways that I've seen here. Did you know about this at all? No, it wasn't on my radar until you told me. I think it's great, though. It's really, it sort of just continues to sort of, I think the last 12 months has been a lot about crypto being legitimized in a way that, you know, for a lot of us, it was already obviously very legitimate beforehand.
37:57And it was making these, you know, baby steps towards greater and greater adoption. But we've really seen like giant leaps in this last 12 month period where, you know, banks that you never would have thought accepting crypto now talk about it, you know, BlackRock coming out and launching ETFs, you know, traditional tech companies that probably go back a few years and they wanted nothing to do with crypto. It was almost like this plague that they didn't want to touch because it was regulatory risky and the public hated it and it was just too risky to touch. And now they're acquiring Upbit or acquiring crypto giant companies because they see the potential and they see the future and they don't want to get left behind and they want to get involved, I think is, it's just another one of those really bullish signs for crypto as a whole.
38:40So this is the kind of stuff that, you know, on a day-to-day level, markets are choppy and who knows what's going to happen. But if we just zoom out and look at what's happened over the last year, and it's seemingly every week or two, there's giant news like this coming out, which just goes, yeah, crypto is not going anywhere. It's only going to get bigger. The next few years are almost certainly going to be good for it. It's just it's really good news in my view. Yeah, I think a lot of countries have been pretty slow on the stablecoin route. The US has been very quick and really has helped them out.
39:12But I think you'll start to see this now. There's no doubt in my mind that other countries will realize that this is the future of, I mean, probably their own treasuries as well. You know, US stablecoins are in such a huge amount of government debt at this stage. But just the future of these currencies is going to be heavily linked to this new payment system. And I think we'll see others catch up. The EU is still very, very slow. But, yeah, I think Korea, Japan, the UAE has been a little bit quicker, it looks like. So I think we're going to see a lot of this. So that was definitely the biggest story this week, alongside a lot of the BNB stuff, which has been going on.
39:53The other big story that we saw this week was prediction markets again. Back in the news. South Park episode. South Park episode, which is kind of infamous in crypto. I think we've got one around for NFTs as well. And then we've got one for prediction markets. Kind of making a mark of these sort of perverse incentives often with these prediction markets to kind of affect real world outcomes of events. Calci and Polymarket mentioned Calci is hitting massive volumes here, particularly around sports. What's your view on prediction markets? We've kind of gone back and forth a bit on this show. I still think that the business model itself isn't quite affected, or we've probably got another six to 12 months to work out how to look at the liquidity of these correctly.
40:41But in terms of market share and mind share, they're doing incredibly well. And it feels as though this could be crypto's killer app this cycle. You've been involved, I think, in a few grassroots prediction markets. And I know this is kind of where you're taking your newsletter as well. What's your view on prediction markets here? Yeah, I've been bullish on them for a while. I think that they're great. I think that both from the level of being able to just bet on basically anything. I was a poker player and did sports betting and stuff in the past. And having these global markets where you can bet on live sports and bet on any outcome, it's really cool to have that liquidity.
41:21But then also seeing prediction markets as a news site because as information comes to light, then if there's a financial incentive involved, prediction markets will tend to show the result before anything else. We saw this pretty famously with the 2024 election. And we're going to continue to see that with just every area it kind of plays out. Interestingly, I think around that time of the 2024 election, everyone was like, oh, this is great. Prediction markets, yeah, yeah, yeah. But after the election, they're going to die. Like, that's it. You know, no one's going to care about them afterwards.
41:53And obviously, there was a drop off in attention and in volumes and stuff. But I think just in the last couple of days, largely probably thanks to the South Park episode, but you've now seen prediction market volumes overtake what they were during the that 2024 election, which was kind of a big peak back then. And now it's kind of every day we're seeing those levels of volume. Because there are multiple ways you can, you have the whole, it's basically just another way to do sports betting, but it's peer-to-peer instead of with a sports book taking a giant VIG or a moderate VIG. You did mention the sort of the revenue streams and that will be the interesting thing.
42:27I think both Calci and Polymarket are working off these 0 % fee structures right now, which makes it very appealing as a user, but But it does make you wonder how and when they're going to start making money as a business and then how that will work for them. But I think they'll figure it out. And I think that prediction markets are here to stay. And they're definitely a place to watch, especially because there are no tokens out for any of these platforms yet. So I think there's probably value in tinkering around, placing some predictions on the major ones. And yeah, there's multiple ways you can find edges.
43:01It's the potential edge drop, but then there's arbitrage opportunities or there's just using your brain a bit and trying to find things that areas that you know about a bit and maybe the rest of the world knows less on and you can just find an edge. Yeah, I think they're really cool. Yeah, there's definitely edges. I'm in chats with just people who are looking at the arbitrage one is kind of the most obvious one and they're huge. You know, we're talking about double digit differences versus traditional sports books on a ton of different things. and you can pick up quite easy alpha that way. They're also sometimes a little bit slower things than I would say traditional sports books as well.
43:38So you can kind of put on bets relatively quickly if you're focused. And yeah, it feels as though, like you said, you can have an edge on a lot of different things if you're kind of paying attention. They don't seem like they're being priced correctly. So I see a lot of people making money on this stuff. Not insane amounts of money, but they're making money. And if you're coming in before just to gamble on the daily runner, this feels like the next thing which people are doing and enjoying and making money doing. Like, you know, they're owning Bitcoin and they're doing this on the side and they're having fun doing it and enjoying being part of the crypto community.
44:19It's true that it sounds like Polymarket is going to have its own token. And they've mentioned that. Kalshi is like a little less crypto native, but they're kind of building it out. But there's another one. I think Limitless did a token sale week. And of course, yeah. Yeah. Myriad looks like they're going to be doing a token. And, you know, there's going to be a lot of Web3 kind of firms that come and do this and do these sort of flywheels, which seems to be the bit of the meta at the moment. So I'm interested. I still go back and forth about whether we've hit the perfect model yet, or if they're just going to continue to be like this, and perhaps that this can be less attractive from an operator standpoint.
45:07point it's very clear that like polymarket isn't making a ton of money even with the huge amount of volume that they're seeing they have barely any fees and maybe the fee bit comes later with like the the token and they have like a some sort of a flywheel with it but for now it does feel as though we're still in this early mind early stage where i think we'll see various different attempts to how to perfect the model or maybe partnerships with bigger companies like Like I'm surprised we haven't seen a Binance chain, for example. Yeah. Or we haven't seen something like this even out of like Coinbase, like bigger, more predictable revenue companies which have this on the side.
45:50I feel like it works quite well. We've seen Robinhood integrate Calci and it's gone very well. And perhaps they can handle the variability in revenue over that period or see this as a marketing exercise as well to get people on their... So I think this is here to stay. It's kind of this and DeFi feels like the main things this cycle. DeFi having this second kind of like, right, we're going to do the models correctly and everything's going to work has gone relatively well. And then prediction markets. For Mindshare, you're not going to beat it. I see all the NFT influencers from two... Well, I don't even know that's two cycles ago, but one cycle ago are now looking at, they were meme coins and now it's prediction markets.
46:38And a lot of their content is around that. And you can tell that that's where the market's going. So, which I think is smart. And you're doing it as well. You're doing it as well. Like, it's what people want to see, right? You have to go to where the attention is. And like, you know, I love NFTs just as much as almost anyone, but it's, NFTs have had a lot of attention lately because of the, you know, punk strategy and all the strategy tokens and stuff like that. But it's still nowhere near where it was in 21 or even 22. And you just kind of have to, you know, if you want to be in crypto, if you want to do it full time, you can't just, it's very tough to just stick to one thing and then just only stick to that one thing forever.
47:15You miss out on so many opportunities by not keeping your eyes open and looking at stable coins or prediction markets or meme coins when they were the big thing. And yeah, I think that the next sort of six months, we'll see, I think we see the revenue meta continue because it's actually a sustainable meta. It's actually a good meta. It makes sense to people that are at sort of all levels of the crypto spectrum. Meme coins, obviously, a lot of people didn't get them or jive with them. They thought they were just purely scammy and extractive. And, you know, there's a lot of truth to that. But with revenue, it's sort of something that you can speculate on.
47:53You can treat them like meme coins or meme coins where it's like, all right, I'm going to gamble on where the attention is going to be and the token that sort of builds the greatest community and the biggest cult and what people seem to like. But you could also analyze from a business perspective and be like, well, all right, look at how much money they're making. Look at how much percentage of buybacks they've sort of allocated towards. What markets have they not entered yet? How much could that increase their revenue? All the traditional metrics and ways that people analyze businesses can be applied to crypto companies that have actual revenue and are using that revenue to sort of build out their ecosystem.
48:27So hopefully this meta sort of stays for forever because it makes a ton of sense. And yeah, I think prediction markets, when they figure out that revenue lever, it will be a big deal. obviously it's a little uncertain but i think you know they if they keep increasing their volumes just a small percentage of that um would go a very long way for them um and that might be enough yeah i agree maybe we'll touch upon for the last 10 minutes just kind of what you're involved in at the moment because people probably know you the most from that nft cycle and crushing it by different trades then you built a pretty big community on the back of that and then obviously you have this newsletter as well, which has been incredibly successful.
49:10For something like prediction markets, how are you thinking about building out your content? Is it looking at arbitrage? Is it looking at alpha sort of trades? Have you got like research analysts? How are you thinking about building even content now around that? Yeah. So my content always starts with sort of like a beginner's guide. Like I think that a lot of people come to my content where they maybe look, they don't know a lot about a topic. And so I always like to sort of explain what are prediction markets? How can you get involved? What are the big ones? What are volumes like? What does the future look like?
49:40And then touch on all the different ways you can make money without first going deep into one of them. So arbitrage obviously being one, finding edges being another, potential edge or farming being another. And so I'm working on a newsletter on that right now. And I think that that will go out either next week or the week after. And then depending on sort of how I'm feeling, the reception to it, what the market is looking like, I might go deeper on one of those sort of verticals and sort of create a bit more content around whether it's arbitrage or whether it's finding sort of niche bets that just you can have significant edges on or even just finding new prediction markets that people aren't paying attention to yet.
50:16Because sometimes where volume is lower, the edges can be even higher. That's kind of how I sort of approach any sort of topic like this. And I'll probably do it the same with prediction markets and then sort of just sort of get some feedback from the community and see what people are most interested in and then do a bit of a deeper dive myself and share some content around that yeah i think it's going to be incredibly popular i i also and and even our producer has mentioned that he loves your your your more down-to-earth stuff around like how to protect your portfolio like how to trade through a cycle this cycle for example i think some people have probably wrote it up pretty well they're sitting there wondering maybe i should be a bit more defensive at this stage, it feels towards the end of the cycle, not towards the beginning.
51:00Maybe this tops out sometimes next year or at least in the next 12 months. How are you thinking about stuff from portfolio level at the moment? And what are the main pieces of advice you'd give for somebody in terms of portfolio management? Yeah, one of the basic ones is that as your portfolio gets larger, you just generally want to switch to be more conservative with it. And that's just general life logic, I think. If your portfolio is$1 ,000 and if you lose it, it's not the end of your life. You can redeposit$1 ,000 in another month or so. You can afford to be very high risk with that. And you can try and look for 10Xs or 50Xs or 100Xs.
51:40If your portfolio is$1 ,000 and you have no job and you're 18 years old and you can't really re-up that amount, then it's a different story. But once your portfolio hits six figures, seven figures, certainly eight figures, that's when the marginal utility of an extra 2x really drops, whereas the loss of an 80 % loss is enormous. And so you want to just switch from accumulation and growth to just preservation. And I think that's something that a lot of people, myself included, fail to do your first cycle around. And if you don't have that history in financial markets or managing money, it's very easy to get caught up in the, oh, I did so well for so long.
52:22You know, I, even if I do half as well going forward, that's still going to be great, but you don't necessarily account for the black swan events and the times that things can go really, really, really bad. So yeah, I think being pretty risk on early on and then conservative later on is, is a pretty good approach. And the other approach I've taken, and all of this is like learned by making these mistakes myself is just now I I take a much more quality over quantity approach. I used to own so many different tokens and trade in and out of so many things, make a lot more trades. And now I sit back and do far fewer things.
52:56And I think that being patient and just waiting for the occasional trade, even if it's once a month or twice a month, is usually going to serve most people a lot better than trying to catch the runner of the day, the next big thing. There is a small percentage of people that can do stuff like that. They can sit in Telegram chats all day long. if you have all the time in the world, you can make good money being deep in the trenches and finding things and trading well and having discipline. But it's my experience that over 99 % of people will fail if they attempt that. And you're better off just dollar cost averaging in a Bitcoin and maybe a couple others, and then having another maybe trading bucket, and then just paying attention to what's happening in the space, looking for narratives that make sense to you, and maybe going heavy into something like Aster or Plasma or whatever stuff like this that comes along every now and then in the market that maybe you can make a 3x, a 5x, a 10x on with size and sort of take that quality over quantity approach.
53:51I completely agree with that last point. I think I moved to being, at least over the last couple of weeks, was moved to being more defensive after the Fed came out and I felt like it was going to be a bit more delicate and I made myself move mainly into Bitcoin and then I even put in some shorts on a few things. But it's very clear to me that each month there's a trade where you go, I wish I had the liquidity to just go all in on this thing. And last month, I felt like that for a while with ETH. When ETH was trading at 2 ,500, I was like, that consolidated for a while. I thought that was a really good risk reward trade.
54:31And then Sol was the other one, which I kind of missed that going, being the next rotation from like 170, 180 to 250. Then it was pump. And I felt like, right, get in pump, get in early. This is going to be a runner. This week we had we had Aster and then already it seems like people have moved on to plasma. But you can afford to not be in the market and just wait for those moments where you feel like, right, this has got a really good shot of being a 2x here and going in larger. or actually not just going in with enough that it will be meaningful for you and really trading those quite well. You always get a shot with that in the rest of the market rather than almost feeling kind of stuck mentally in certain trades and not feeling like you're able to realize a loss or even realize a profit as well, some of this sort of stuff.
55:27Yeah. Yeah, you string together a bunch of like 2Xs or 3Xs and it really compounds quickly. People always want the 10X or the 100X or they see screenshots on Twitter and aim for stuff like that. But the reality is that it's one in a thousand people are doing stuff like that. And those are the ones that you see. You don't see everyone that gets chopped up and doesn't take profit at the right time or holds too long or round trips or there's so many ways it goes wrong. Yeah, so my general thesis right now is, I mean, I'm still mainly in Bitcoin. I still have some shorts and kind of some alts. But my view is that I think the Bitcoin could go a little bit lower.
56:04Like I do think that we're going to see a bit of a, I think we're going to see a flush on the macro side, mainly probably around things like NFPs and other data stuff. And that will mean that crypto sells off with macro and then you can really buy some great stories. The stories that I'm looking to buy are things like Hyperliquid, Aster, PumpFun from a revenue meta, maybe a couple of the brand culture coin sort of moves. And then things like Plasma, like some of these more DeFi protocols that look like they're going to get stuff right. You're going to get really good opportunities that you don't even have to promo, I think.
56:47And you can really buy some of the stories as we see these sort of flushes. so I'm still in this sort of defensive mindset for the audience that have been following me along I kind of said that from a couple of weeks ago and I think that we're not yet at the point where you need to buy because I think we're going to see macro flush a little bit that's my gut if not, I just own Bitcoin Bitcoin is going to do fine it'll probably be one of the things that performs the best over the next two weeks and you'll never feel like you're out of the market or JLP, which I love which is the Jupyter liquidity protocol coin.
57:26Anything else you devised here right now? Like how far, do you have a view on where we are kind of for the next month or quarter? Are you on a scale of like one to 10, how aggressively are you positioned? I kind of agree with you. I think that we've got a little more pain coming first. ETH will probably drop into the low to mid$3 ,000s. Bitcoin will drop. Everything will tank a bit. Bitcoin will have the most strength. Bitcoin dominance will probably go up for a while. And then at some point, maybe in the next two to three months, I think we'll see this rotation back into crypto and everything will sort of have this resurgence.
58:06And like you said, there'll be a lot of good dips to buy. To me, the thing that always comes to mind in times like this is just the reality and knowledge that most people will find themselves in this situation and have no capital to buy the dips. And I've been in that situation so many times before, because you just get stuck to holding your bags and you don't take enough profits when things pump. And I think that it's just a really good reminder that stuff is cyclical in cryptos. It goes up, it goes down. there's always swings. And I'm not saying just try and time the markets perfectly and sell all of your bag at X, Y, and Z time, but take profits when things are going really good.
58:49And when there's been a prolonged period of just number go up and then just sit on either stables or rotate it into Bitcoin so that when there is inevitably a dip or a significant correction, you actually have the dry powder to deploy back into some of these fantastic opportunities. because I just know that most people listening probably will get to a point where they see these opportunities, but they just didn't take enough profit and they don't have anything to buy it with. And it just sucks so much to be in that position. So just remind us, just take profits when the times are good and have that bank of dry powder for days like what we're in now and we'll probably likely be in for the next couple of weeks.
59:28Yeah, I think we have a very strong Q4 as well. I think we're going to see that return to the correlation. So if you're just like, you know, I can't be bothered to deal with this going in and out of the market, I still think that you're going to see maybe a little bit of pain. But I do think we have a very strong key for, I think, gold continuing to hit all-time highs every single week is just a very good sign for what's about to happen to Bitcoin and probably the broader market. And I just think we always see these sort of wobbles around these sort of times, and particularly around Fed changing policy.
1:00:01I think this is bullish what they're doing, but you're going to see a lot of people like second guessing what they're doing. And I think that's, what's going to be the main changes. Yeah. Like you're shaking out of your bags, basically your conviction plays at least. Exactly. All right. Well, Zeneca, it's been a pleasure having you on. I love having a new perspective. Obviously people can go check you out. I think you're just at Zeneca on, on. At Zeneca on Twitter. Yeah. I was lucky enough to get that handle a couple of years back. Awesome. And obviously as an incredible newsletter, that are going to be pitching always first to a lot of new things.
1:00:31And particularly, like you said, very good beginner sort of content. So if you feel like I'd never really get these metas and I never really get how to get into them. Very good content. I wrote all of those. I've sponsored, we've sponsored it for you, actually, because I love some of the content you guys produce. So go check out that newsletter. Go check out the Discord as well. I think it's one of the best out there. And we'll hopefully get you on the next time I'm in Asia. Sounds good. It's not that long, but really, really great having you. Awesome. Thanks for having me. It was a lot of fun.
1:01:01All right, guys. No questions this week because this is a pre-recorded show, but we will be back again at the usual time. Again, next week, 11.30 a.m. Eastern, 4.30 p.m. British summertime. We'll see you again then. Thanks all for tuning in. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join.
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From the publisher
This week on REKT Vision, Mando, Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter, is joined by Zeneca, founder of ZenAcademy and author of the Letters from a Zeneca newsletter. They discuss the biggest narratives and themes driving cryptocurrencies right now, including the crypto's underperformance, Aster's battle with Hyperliquid, CZ's bets, the launch of Plasma mainnet and XPL, Naver's acquisition of South Korea exchange Upbit, Polymarket and Kalshi's future as the predictions platform feature on "South Park," and much more. Recorded in the early morning ET on September 26, 2025.
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