Ask Me Anything: Beer w/ Tony Greer

27:54So I think that that's kind of the way I look at it. And it may be completely not the right way of looking at it. I have no idea.

28:04Let's see what else we've got here. does anybody have any general interest questions is anybody doing anything fun does anybody want to talk about music i think we covered a lot of questions oh boy here's a good one keto rx do i keep my life savings and self-employed 401k with the dollar dying or cash in for gold silver bitcoin wow i mean that's a heavy question right there I mean, I'm not your wealth manager, KetoRx, so I apologize, guys. I really do about that. I think that you should diversify, if anything, so that you can sleep at night. You know, I mean, I've sort of only diversified a little bit to, you know, a physical metal portfolio that, you know, hopefully I can hand off from my deathbed to my kids one day without needing it.

28:57But that's kind of just in case that that but to me, that's a monetary hedge. more than a trading position. And while we do have the trading position on now on the Navigator, simply drawn there by performance, I think that if you're talking about your life savings that if you have a little bit across the board and percentages that you are comfortable with, jot it down on a legal pad, what you'd be comfortable with given prices, volatility, et cetera, et cetera. But I know that seemingly over time, a larger allocation of gold always would have benefited me more. So I kind of like to look for, you know, steep dips and buy.

29:39And I mean, just like everybody else, but meaning buy physical and add that to the to the portfolio. So that's how I look at gold right now. And sort of as it relates to my sort of longer term life savings and things. So I think that a 401k is important because you have to have, you know, some allocation of bonds and equities. Jared Dillian is probably a great resource for that as he is a master of personal investments and has helped me with a lot of things that I would have never had any clue about. So that's just a plug for him there because he's really useful in that arena. And I think he's writing a book on...

30:23something like that i don't know okay how many beers will you drink neil moi great question let's try to work on one

30:35if you're going to do the beer theme you've got to drink the beer for the love of god um let's see if there are any new questions on here coming in ah your favorite band from each decade of the 70s 80s and 90s now we're talking about shit um let's go really quickly though can you play oh first great question like can you play eruption i'm rusty at it but if you give me some time i could probably get three quarters of it down and fool everybody um your favorite band from each decade of the 70s 80s and 90s wow you know i lose track i have to say well mike i'll tell you right now my favorite band from the 70s is gonna have to be the who because that's who i paid the most attention to as a single digit kid.

31:19I was, I had my older cousins that would play the Tommy album for me and tell me the story about the deaf, dumb and blind kid that was a pinball wizard. And man, did that freak me out, twist me around and, you know, have me wake up in the middle of the night thinking about, you know, some of the scenes in that, in that movie. So yeah, definitely the Who was a huge influence on me in the 70s. In the 80s, definitely that was Van Halen time. You know, I mean, I was full ass over tea kettle in love with Eddie Van Halen as a, you know, young teen and just absolutely floored by his guitar. I got to see him at a young age that my dad got me tickets to at Nassau Coliseum and at Madison Square Garden.

32:09And I was never so blown away by anything. I've still never been blown away by anything like the original Van Halen shows that I got to see, of which there were five with David Lee Roth that I got to see as a kid. So my favorite band of the 90s, by that time, it became The Grateful Dead, without question. In college, I always got to know The Grateful Dead. When I went to college, I graduated in 90, and it was after I got out of college and I guess spent some more time going to shows and registering more and more shows with what I really liked. And I got taken to the 10th row at Madison Square Garden in front of Jerry Garcia by a currency broker that was still a friend of mine named Bobby Nowicki.

32:57And he stuffed my face full of mushrooms and we watched the entire Dead Show from there. And I have never seen anything like it to this day. And so that is why, you know, you continue to go back and see, I got a lot of shows in with Jerry in the early 90s before he died. So that was my band. So that would be The Who and then Van Halen and then Grateful Dead. So really typical stuff, I guess. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

33:32All right, let's get into some other questions, although that was the best part any chance we can trade out elizabeth warren it's amazing the who is great yep horrible who i understand moon the loon keith moon man he i was sad as hell the day he died that hit me like a kick in the nuts uh austin tacker top best five i believe it i'm dying to get there austin oh top best place to see a concert oh me top five uh you know it's got to be uh i mean red rocks is really mind-blowing. I've never seen anything like that physically structure-wise. That's a work of art. I just got to see three widespread panic shows there in the late 90s, and that stands out like anything else, but you got to throw down.

34:21I saw Fish at Hollywood Bowl, and I thought that was incredible, like a really, really special spot. The Garden is like my favorite place to go see anybody i get like more excited to see people at the garden because i see a lot of musicians show up at the garden like they never showed up anywhere before um so that's definitely up there for me the beacon theater is a special place for me super small super boutiquey and beautiful and what a vibe in there man you know for panic shows and and uh tedeschi trucks band and stuff like that or the almonds um and i'm sure there are many many more david lee roth d gardner definitely was Was the best front man of all time.

35:03Have you heard of Greta Van Fleet? Excellent band. Excellent band. Absolutely. Dig them. Saw the Dead a few times. Pueblo Beefcom. I like that. Hey, Tony bought the Marley turntable at the Senior Beer Cast. Love it. The Bluetooth. But yeah, man, they're pretty good. It's a good setup. I like this setup myself. I play it quite a bit. IPA or lager Manas Agarwal. Strictly lager guy. Post-COVID, I can't drink IPA. It all tastes like soap. And I literally, it's like COVID. Before COVID, I would literally have problems battling my weight because if I went out for beers, I'd drink like three or four IPAs, and that's like seven days' worth of calories.

35:41And so I'm now on this side of COVID. Since having had it, it tastes like soap to me. So I'm back to old non-Anheuser-Busch lager. I think as dollar starts its descent down – wait, let me just make sure I didn't miss any. Yeah, I think the dollar starts to descend down even if just, oh, yeah, I do. I don't think it's just on brick sentiment. I think it's on U.S. rates going lower. You know, the dollar has that phenomenon where as rates are going up, everybody is piling in to, you know, enjoy that risk-free treasury bond rate of, you know, we saw it up as 4 % change. On the way out is unfortunately going to be the reverse of that operation.

36:26So, you know, yields lower, people want out, and that comes out of the dollar. So it's selling dollars as well. I think that that trend is sturdy. The reason I have the most confidence in it being sturdy is because there are two central banks at the top that kind of threw their mark down in the sand. And then we had sentiment and technicals crash down behind it. Really, really convincing stuff, though. Like not the kind of stuff that looks like it can turn around anytime soon. I know that it can, and I'm not a terminal dollar bear. I'm not a non-reserve guy. I've heard that argument a thousand times.

37:04I agree with Brent Donnelly, who made some great arguments. I didn't even realize how often the de-dollarization thing comes up. And when you hear it after being in the business for this long, you're like, all right, I'll think about it. You know, it seems like it's something, right? And what's different this time? And, you know, when you look at the, you know, reserves that trade around the world, I mean, it's like 60 % plus or dollars and you can't even make a dent in that wave. You know, I don't care how many commodity markets you start. If you're trading in small amount of currencies, you know, without the massive flows, then you're never going to be a, you know, reserve currency yourself.

37:44So we'll see how that plays out. But I'm just bearish. Technically, I think the price can go down. You know, I don't think that it's going away or anything like that.

37:57So, cheers, Manas Agarwal. Iron Impossible, I think I see Tools of Titans in the background. Yeah, Iron Impossible. Man, put it this way. I skimmed through a lot of that book, Tim Ferriss, and I got frustrated with him on, like, I just felt like if you want to help people, help them by not flogging yourself with a 4 ,000 page book that, you know, is way too much for anybody to go through. Now, not to say that it's not valuable, but I was, I didn't go through the whole thing. I, you know, treated it like kind of a textbook and pigeonhole, excuse me, wrong, wrong, wrong metaphor, cherry picked things that I wanted to read about and really found them insightful and enjoyable, but the same thing, that is a four-hour movie that could have been two.

38:54Let's see. I like that you can see that. What's in my background there? I hope there's nothing incriminating. No, I'm just kidding. Van Halen Rocks, SS, they do still. Thoughts on the future of the Petrodollary Act? We just kind of went through that retrospect. I don't think it's may not go anywhere. It probably, you know, it may lend a weakish tone for quite a while. It It may cause people to sell it. It may cause the amount of transactions that take place in dollars go down a little bit. But I don't think that you're going to see these smaller currencies, in the immediate term anyway, break in to have an effect in anything that's going to affect my day-to-day trading, if that's fair to say.

39:35That's really an important discriminating line for me. How will the EIA adjustments be on the inventories tomorrow? The EIA adjustments, I don't know, man. And, you know, you take the numbers on face value and then you look at the reaction more importantly and you see how people are positioned and you throw that into the pile with everything else. You can't live and die by those numbers. Scotch is strictly bearded by Caleb Reese. Great question. Do enjoy a couple of different Scotches. I like Johnny. I'm not a fancy Scotch guy, but I do like Johnny Walker Black on the rocks as a holiday drink.

40:10um that stuff makes me fat so I try not to drink too much of it it also makes me pretty wasted so I don't drink it that often and um that's it though I I do like to go out and that's kind of a festive thing with me when I'm dressed up and drinking out of a glass like an adult I don't mind a nice scotch or Doug Morley what does Tony do to blow off stress um man I I keep moving. I walk my dog a lot around on the beach. So it's not just like, you know, kind of soft walk. I mean, you know, go two miles or so in the sand with your dog, chase him around a little bit. And you've got a good workout there.

40:48I spend a lot of time in the summer on my bike and in the water and playing hoops out on the court on the side of my house here. And man, there's a lot of stuff going on. So it's usually just staying in motion. Playing my guitar also is something that I really love doing usually that's at night and uh one of my favorite analog things to do um and that's it daryl then the first concert first concert daryl densmore real vision finance um proud to say that that was barry manilow that my mom took me to and it was definitely in the she's definitely in the 70s probably by the time i was 11 or 12 because we were with my cousin so yeah that had to be like 78 79 and barry manilow's heyday at nassau coliseum and i'll say that at that age like i loved it i was like amazed at like for totally taken by by even that type of music and just seeing the first person live and getting some scale um i got addicted to that feeling pretty quick and continued to go track down everybody else that i like to see favorite concert you know I was just thinking about it and I'm, I'm all right.

41:59So I'm on a little bit. I was going back over how much I liked fare thee well at soldier field in Chicago. Um, just in terms of how like meaningful that was to be there for it. Um, cause obviously this came out in a conversation. And when I think about things that I'm really glad I got to, it turns out that it's things like that. And so I'm trying to keep that in mind and make sure that I get to, you know, of some of the historic stuff and paying closer attention to kind of things like I like traveling to shows. Those are usually usually when you have your best experience because you're like it's like a destination wedding, right?

42:40It takes people out of their atmosphere and makes them focus on the music, the party, you know, the meal, the recovery and getting home, you know, and so it's got a beginning and an end to it. And those are the best storylines for me. Jonathan Ventura question. What do you think of Martin Armstrong, economic Socrates prediction of international war? Wow. Sounds highly probable more and more every day goes by, doesn't it? Manilow, pure gold, Pueblo beef con, right? Yeah, I was 11 in the 70s. Absolutely.

43:16Yeah, freakish youth. I've been I've gotten that comment before. One of the guys I worked with, a younger guy said, you have absolutely freakish youth qualities and you should use that to your advantage one day so if i ever come up with a good reason how i will can you play guitar for this one time or show us a tape of you playing oh yeah i can come up with something like that no i'm not going to go grab my guitar now i don't feel like it um i'm still a chord banger and a total for fun hacker player and i clam up in front of any kind of crowd camera or anything like i have to be playing alone so I can take a video of myself and I eventually will do that and just post it up somewhere.

43:58Um, cause I can play some stuff that sounds really like the original, you know, and, and, uh, I have fun with that. Um, but literally if I have to, I had to do like, for example, like I played a song with my cousin for my sister-in-law's wedding years ago at their wedding party and the, you know, whether wedding party parties and I practiced it, it's like five or six chords is a van morrison song couldn't have been easier into the mystic i mean literally like a third grade level guitar song and got to the thing and literally totally blanked on how to play it and had to like go back to my source and look up each chord as to how i was going to play this into that and like how to refresh myself because i got so nervous about playing in front of and it was a room full of family it was like 50 family members and friends that i knew So that's how not fit for stage I am on the guitar, but I am comfortable and will put something together at one point.

44:57I usually, my favorite to pick up is my Double D, is definitely my Gibson, my Gibson Les Paul Custom 2001, total hot rod of a guitar. I have my Marshall amp is actually on the fritz right now, but it sounds amazing through anything and even better through headphones, through a PV blazer that I played that you plug your headphones right into. And that's cool because you can just hear it yourself and you don't have to blast it around the house. But I did absolutely love when I was last time I was in Nashville, I played an unbelievable like 1950s.

45:39What is it? Throwback, you know, carbon copy of those Gibson guitars, Gibson Les Paul. And it was literally like, you know, you shake picking the thing up because it's like a fifteen thousand dollar item. It's got, you know, the Murphy lab scratches on it so that it looks real and everything like that. and you plug that sum bitch into a Marshall stack and man, you are instantly slash. Like it is unbelievable how good it sounds and how powerful that is. So we're going to be more guitar stuff. I love that you guys are interested. Back to commodities. Do you follow any Royal outfits? No. What advice would you give to young people who might feel like they missed a chance to catapult?

46:17Not having assets going in 21. Well, that's totally fair. And man, that's a tough one. You know, you can train yourself how to take risk and be good at risk. And over time, you know, you'll see how trades look bigger in front of you. And then you can, you know, put some money behind and risk some money on things. Right. There's ways to lever that and there's ways to look at that. But I think that that's going to be the way to go for the next generation. Right. I mean, you had a chance to get on that. you me everybody that that that trades anything had a chance to jump on that bitcoin rally you know from 10k to 80k and and that went on for a year and a half and could have jumped in at any time in size and made money and you know that was a great uh example of like the trading game taking place in real life we're like here here's a ticker symbol everybody go ahead go after it let's see what happens and and obviously for the for whatever reasons right or wrong everybody came after it and and had its bubble moment.

47:21But that was really cool to at least see that, you know, I saw guys that, you know, had just gotten out of college become millionaires on that move. And I got a feeling that that is kind of a way, the sign of things to come is that, you know, you're going to have to figure out how to be sitting in a chair paying close attention when AMC goes berserk, you know, and be able to trade something like that to figure it out. Or you can keep stacking your chips in a much slower fashion. you know, and do the Felix Zuloff type of trades and invest in salmon eateries and things like that.

48:01Ozglic, go for coffee instead. I like Steve Foote, Real Vision. Do you maintain regular trading hours? That's a good question because no, you know, I do have a regular schedule. And I don't really... I mean, there are times, you know, going into weekends when I have a bigger position that needs to be managed and needs more attention. But I'm usually, as long as I'm around on opens and closes, most of the time, like pretty much every day opens and closes. And then, you know, sitting in front of the screens, you know, a third or half of the week, you know, understanding price action is good. but I feel like stepping away from them has been beneficial for me in terms of just letting things breathe and think things out and think about things where things should be in your own head.

49:01You know, when you come back to the screens or when you look at the screens, you know, the next Monday morning and have things jump out at you that are different than your view, you know, and a lot, you can only get to a point like that when you spend time away from the screens and not looking at them and away from the markets. It's got to be something that, you know, happens kind of a conversation you have with yourself organically. And then you can weed out what really what your gut is really wrestling with in trading conversations. I took a break, a break from Joe Rogan to listen to Tony rant live.

49:35That is amazing. There is quite a rant going on here isn't there books on how to learn technical analysis lasse sakara um man books on technical analysis murphy's technical analysis is the only one i ever looked at so you can get anything out of there really simple great book um d gardner i like that idea make a video and put it in that area i have to do that i should do that i'm really i'm so i'm so camera shy when it comes to the guitar and like crowd shy and paranoid and it's terrible but I will put something together because I have you know what I'm going to do I'm going to sneak a recording on myself because if I don't know that I'm recording myself it'll go fine but as soon as I hit the record button I will start hacking notes up left and right I know it um do I ever go against your gut man that's a great trading question Mark Wells oh man do you ever go against your gut let me think about that.

50:36No, I don't think I go against my gut. I think that it's important for you to not play mental tricks on yourself, right? That's like a double negative going against your gut, right? Your gut is the thing that you got to rely on that tells you, no, no, no, this is, you got to get into this, right? Like the point of sale moment is your gut or no, no, no, you better get out of this before it gets worse, right? The ejector seat moment happens from your gut. Like, no, I got to be out, right? Because if it's happening from your nervous system, then it's too late already. Then you already lost, right?

51:18If it's your nervous system forcing you out of something, then you're, then you're cooked already. And I can't help you there. your gut is what gets you out of something before you fry. And your gut is what takes something from a pile of money to a position in a security. That's a reasonable size position. So the gut is not something that you want to fade and have a mechanism where you say, oh, my gut says buy this. And then I just say, nah, right. Then I'll never know what to do. You know, you've developed, you spend your whole life trying to develop a set of clear There are signals and mechanisms and things that take the emotion out of trading and make it really binary and simplify it as much as you can.

52:02And so using your gut to your advantage is something you have to have on your side. So, no, don't play tricks on your gut. That's a really great question, though, Mark Wells. Outstanding. Manas Agarwal from India. How do you manage to keep emotions out when the trade isn't exactly going your way? Count the money is gone. write the check write it mentally whatever you got to do write the number down on a piece of paper how much money you lost on that trade um that that's the way to make it happen right that's the way to say that the emotion can't be there right it's got to be this risk reward on this trade i'm risking one to make four i'm risking two to make five you know and i can do that within the limits of my account and when the limits of leverage and within the limits of sanity and risk management principles and that's what we're trying to do so if you do that and allow emotions to constantly get involved you're going to fry yourself before you know that's like i said your nervous system taking over and when the nervous system takes over it's you it's you're already done so managing the emotions is sort of you know learning actually to anticipate markets and make decisions based on, you know, the stars lining up in your brain and having, you know, the all important conversation with yourself, right?

53:28Like kind of how am I going to feel if I stay in this slash or get out of this? You know, like how am I going to feel? How am I going to feel if I miss this? Right? That's a good way to get yourself into a trade is ask yourself how you're going to feel if you miss it. Will you live with yourself if you miss that one? So let's see what we got here. Commercial real estate, I have no idea. I stay in my lanes, Travis Haynes. You see what I did there? There's a serious systemic problem there, and it is most likely to be the catalyst for the Fed to pivot. Travis, let me tell you something. If you and I, unless you're a commercial real estate expert, if you and I have heard all about the commercial real estate problem that the world is sucking wind on, I'm going to guess that in three, but it's six months from now, we probably won't be hearing about it so much again.

54:15And it'll probably crawl back under the rock that it came from. And it probably won't cause any systemic damage to the markets until it does one day, I understand. But my point is that we have been hearing about this for years and these waves in and out. And so I heard, I'm sure that the financing is dire. And I'm sure that it looks terrible. And I'm sure that the Fed will point their bazooka at that at one day, too, and sop up whatever mess it blows out onto the street, and we'll figure it out from there.

54:47CMT technician, does it have respect in the industry? Jay, Michael, good question. I respect people with CMT. You know, you had to put your study cap on and get through a set of standardized tests to get one. so I do credit those people even with you know more knowledge of technicals than I have you know without a doubt do I trust their system more than I trust my system no what I listen to them over my decision no but I do think that they're trained very well to do that kind of job technically so I do respect that and I think it's probably worth getting maybe if it's you know especially for guys that don't have the years and years of experience on a trading desk or aren't going to get that, you know, seeing institutional flows go by, you know, your whole career and understanding what makes those, what drives those and what makes them sort of land on the desk and things like that.

55:44So I guess there's a lot to think about there, but I'm saying, you know, if you can't get that type of experience than you know getting a cmt or some other license like standardized license that sets you apart from your peers a little bit at a higher edu at a higher you know educational level i think it's great absolutely yes summer spike coming jordan de juice i'm feeling you man i'm feeling you well i think we're getting toward the end here unless anybody has any more questions there is a um oh here we go there's another couple questions yeah i do think there's a summer gas spike coming you know jordan that depends on if we get if mother nature cooperates with hotter than normal weather um because other than that there's plenty of supply around here i'm sure europe is well stocked after that fiasco last winter.

56:40So I think so. Will commodities follow the two-year note down? Could do. Could do. That's the way the trend is going. You know, deflationary, deflationary, weaker commodity prices. The one thing that's different this time is that there is a vicious attack on supply, right? You know, Joe Biden is going to Saudi Arabia to ask for more production. He's not allowing the U.S. to pump any more barrels. You know, the whole thing about canceling the leases and then opening a lease in Alaska. You know, the U.S. energy policy is a shit show right now. So we'll see what happens. What is the best market wizards book?

57:15The first one by Jack Schrager is, I read both of them. The first one was better and awesome, I think. You can't miss that. Yeah, smash the like button, gang. Smash the like button. Nikos! Nikos is my man, always in my corner. I respect that, Nikos. That's absolutely awesome. Yeah, but we're going to close it up here. I'm going to go have some dinner and finish off the rest of the six-pack, which I have on ice right here, ready to go. And if there are no one, Travis Haynes, cheers, mate. Jay Michael, cheers. Tyler Jackson, how do you decide? All right, last question. Tyler Jackson, how do you decide if you should average down old positions or just open new ones?

58:03average down all positions is trading the same security opening new ones is trading a different security right so one is a different trade and one is they're totally different trades i mean one you're already in a trade doing badly looking to play offense not a particularly great move and opening a new one is it got a brand new world right the first dollar into a security There's a lot to talk about there. You would like the navigator, my man, Tyler Jackson. Thank you, Manas, from India for tuning in. God bless, my friend. You guys are absolutely awesome. Steve Ligari, great show. I appreciate you for tuning in and everybody else that tuned in.

58:39Cheers. We're going to wrap up. My dog just came in. Beckham knows that that's the end of Real Vision Happy Hour and that it's time for him to eat. So we're going to go right now. Cheers, everyone. Thank you for the great questions. You can find me at TGMacro on Twitter. You can find me at TGMacro.com online. And you can DM me on Twitter and I'll try to respond accordingly. But thank you very much for tuning in. Thank you, Real Vision, for hosting a great happy hour. That was delicious. And let me know what else I can do to help people figure out these utterly complex and technically difficult markets.

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