Bitcoin Blasts Through ATH, Alts Surge | REKT Vision

29:01Yeah, that's fair. I think I agree with you. I think just even though we've had this great big run, to me, it feels like it's less of a, oh, wow, this happened to more of like a, finally, we're moving now. That's the sentiment. And I think there are catalysts still out there. I think there are people who still want to get involved, both from a traditional and a retail standpoint. and i think at the beginning of the year trump almost looked a bit silly because we you know we had this crash and everyone's like oh this is just a scam again but we've now obviously reversed that and beyond and i think even not even just on like an investment or trading level but um on you know like for us and all the work that we're doing you probably have the same thing like when we mentioned crypto six months ago like you know for the rect ring stuff people would just wouldn't even pick up the phone to you or they would immediately assume you were some sort of scam whereas now you mentioned you know you're a crypto native project everyone feels like they almost they're not doing their jobs properly unless they're listening to you because they're seeing you know left right sense of what's happening and what's changing there so i think that's these are just like very structurally bullish things for the industry as a whole things that we've been like praying for in previous years and previous cycles that we now have and i I think people lost sight of that a little bit earlier in the year with the other crash.

30:29When it's like, look, everything is now, there's no Gensler, there's no SEC security stuff, you know, there's no Biden, all that stuff's gone. Like, this is like now a clean path for crypto structurally. And not only is it a clean path, but, you know, US is out there with their strategic Bitcoin reserve talking about potentially acquiring Bitcoin. Other states, sovereign nations acquiring Bitcoin. This is just like a next level thing. So I think these are things that are not to be faded and that I think could actually potentially put Bitcoin a lot higher than where it is now. So I'm still very bullish here.

31:05I don't feel like this is a point to sell or reduce risk. I think it's worth looking at alts. I'm still looking at a few alts out there, maybe even a few meme coins and that kind of stuff. And it's like stuff is down still 50, 60, 70, 80 % from the highs. And I'm not saying all of it is going to rally back. But what I am saying is, with Bitcoin approaching 120K, do you want to take a chance on something that's down 80 %? Or maybe some of the better stuff that's down. I'm not talking about scam stuff, obviously. It may not work out, but you may have this crazy move in some of this stuff. And I think that's generally what my view is.

31:47I was curious, in terms of your portfolio construction now, what do you own? how is it split percentage-wise are you mainly just bitcoin and eith um or are you starting to look at other stuff would you ever consider getting back into like the meme coin stuff or how you know what's your expression of trade for high beta if you're trying to outperform bitcoin how are you thinking about all that stuff in terms of portfolio construction well i just discovered another wall yesterday i forgot about that has 10 more me bits so i have 58 minutes um that i imagine your personal exposure to Rekt is also probably your highest exposure to anything.

32:26So for me, it's, yeah, obviously, Meabits, I love Meabits, and I love NFTs. So NFTs for me have been a good way to express Etherlungs. So punks, some cool art. I don't do meme coins myself. It's never been something that I'm good at. I play to my strengths, I think, where I can, or the little ones that I half and things that I can have an effect on. So for now, yeah, it's a core Bitcoin position that's been sitting there for a while. Actually, it's like a whole different wallet, never gets touch. It's just like sitting there, no temptation to do anything with it. And then at the beginning of the year, I was just looking actually, I continued to accumulate Ether at levels around here.

33:15It was a painful April, very, very painful April. But yeah, it just stuck it out. I think the long-term view is that Ether continues this rally and actually gets to even just a catch-up trade with Bitcoin will be great. But I think the narrative is so much stronger today than it was six months ago, let alone a year ago. And then the rest of the stuff, honestly, like I said, for me, NFTs kind of play that left part of the curve, of like tail risk part. I think, you know, there's only so many in a collection. And so those are like quite limited ones to become in demand. Uh, they're hard assets and there's an ability to like layer things on top, which is kind of like what you did with, with Rekt.

33:56Um, don't really have anything other than, you know, the required, uh, I call it the Ralph Powell friendship portfolio. So Solana sold a lot of that into SWE. And then just random things that I've picked up along the way through like airdrops or just, yeah, mostly like airdrops, like from farming DeFi on Solana and so on. And so I haven't sold them. We're doing a lot better in December than they're doing today. But I do think that liquidity wave that you described earlier is coming at some point. and I'll be looking to take profits at certain levels or at the end of the year. And a lot of those things that I've kind of just, I had like MATLABS, I got a bunch of tokens for those, that kind of thing.

34:41So it's mostly Bitcoin, Ether, and then a lot of entities. Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. What do you think on, or two questions actually. First is SWE, something we've spoken about a lot. Not really something that I think Manda and I i've ever really owned meaningful amounts of um i think at times we favored it but generally have preferred other stuff really um do you have any thoughts on that and it does really the question always seems to be like sweet versus soul and i almost kind of do prefer sweet versus soul here just because of all this you know soul unlocks and stuff that are coming and you know everyone knows about that big galaxy digital sale a few months ago and i think some of that stuff is unlocking soon as well.

35:26So Solana does feel like it has a lot of sell pressure. And actually, if you look at the price of it, it's still way down from all-time high. But if you look at the circulating market cap of it, it's very close to all-time highs. It's breached it a few times. So you really have to factor in the unlocks there, which I think people don't often do, and they're so focused on price. But do you have a view on SWE versus Sol? I know you just said that you sold a lot of soul for Suite. Is that something that you would maybe consider growing as part of your portfolio, bigger position? Or is it just the, hey, Raul, I actually own some Suite.

36:09I know that Raul's going to be a billionaire. I don't want to be left behind. No, for me, it's more for Suite specifically. I think the ecosystem's, I don't want to say maturing. It's just growing. They did a good job bringing over Klanosource, for example, to get kind of like the NFTs going on SWE. Definitely seeing them pop up a little bit more when it comes to conversations about what the next generation of blockchains is. We think of, okay, well, retail or normies or adjacent people are coming in. The whole low unit bias, I think, is very, very apparent. and so yeah if people compare it to it happens to Ripple right people compare a$160 Solana token to a$4 sweet token which one are they going to buy it's just a behavioral thing or a psychological thing they'll tend to go for the sweet so I'm keeping it don't have a ton of liquidity these days to be honest to be like buying stuff obviously rotating things involves calculating taxes and so on.

37:18And now that things are materially higher than they were a few months ago, obviously that's part of the calculus that you have to do. But yeah, no, I think I prefer it in the sense of if people are going to come in, it's going to ask like, what's the next something? And it has the right characteristics to be part of that story, kind of like be that next generation, you know, blockchain. And while most people don't care about performance and what's being built, hey, they look at something that's worth three bucks and they compare it to something that's worth $116 ,000 or$3 ,000 or$150 ,000 and they're like, yeah, I'd rather get a lot more of the$3 one.

37:59Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, I agree with that. That makes sense. I still feel like I'd rather own ETH over SWE. I think. Same. It's a tough one. It's a tough one because, you know, if the whole old season theory works out, SWE will massively outperform ETH. Sure. But I feel like I can own ETH in more size and be comfy with it, I guess is what I'm trying to say. I've slept comfy with ETH for four and a half years. So I'm not comfy then. No, because it's a long-term view. Yeah. No, I hear you. Yeah. Right? Like if you bought Amazon at the top in like 99 or I don't even know if it's public yet or not, but like any of those companies, like the Googles of the world, it just had to wait a little bit and they worked out.

38:46And so the thesis has always been long-term. And narratives are great short-term, but I think the long-term thesis, for me, it's always been E. Granted, yeah, if you look at financial performance versus almost anything else in this space, that's not done well. But the other side of that token is that, okay, now that we got the narrative back, and now we're actually seeing meaningful progress. And now, to your point, right, when I was at Fireblocks, I was there for three years, and a lot of the conversations were stables and tokenization. They're pushing in that direction back in 21 and 22, but no meaningful institutions in the U.S., which is still the capital world when it comes to finance, would there take the risk, the legal risk, the compliance risk, or just the headline risk to go beyond a small test case or something like that.

39:38But now that that's been removed, then they are taking that. And so when I chat with my old colleagues from Fireblocks, they're busy and they're excited. And they're not dealing with the little people. They're dealing with the largest traditional institutions in the world. And so for me, that's a sign that that thesis that we had three or four years ago is actually playing out. And it's amazing. I mean, we had back then got to meet the Robin Hood team and they were already working on the stuff that you saw today. This was four years ago. So things like that, for me, I'm a little bit more longer term.

40:17And I think that favors ETH because it's a known known at the end of the day. You know what can do and what it can't do. And yeah, and it's just, I don't know, it feels like home. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. okay and then the other question I had actually was what do you think of NFTs here I don't know obviously you're going to be more constructive on it but I guess the some NFTs have been moving and have been doing very well X copy stuff has been doing very well high quality stuff has been doing very well even some PFP collections have been doing very well as well but we're nowhere near the dizzy heights of 2021 the one of the theories for nfts the main theories really is like once people have made their money in a crazy bull market they will buy their flex items which is like hey okay i just crushed it here's my x copy 101 that i'm gonna i'm now gonna buy here's my crazy rare punk that i'm not gonna buy um and maybe we're not quite there yet in terms of money having been made um do

41:27do you think we see a run towards the end of this move when people have made money and captured games? Or do you think we will never see the levels of 2021 and we'll never see that much focus, but we can start to perform on high quality stuff in a decent way? I think the levels of 2021, obviously they had a lot more things behind them. first of all you know there was just less supply nfts there was a lot more liquidity from stimulus and all that stuff i mean you're seeing it with real estate you're seeing with watches sneakers like overall those kinds of like extremely discretionary assets have really come off now when it comes specifically to nfts today and going forward i do think that we're gonna continue to see new buyers come in they're trickling in right now Now there's not a lot of new people.

42:21There hasn't been new people in three years. But to the point about like, oh, crypto is okay now or crypto is cool again. Well, you know, nobody really like bonds to like, oh, I am a ether guy or I mean, except for like the Bitcoin maxes. But like these new people, like, right. If you're going to come into SWE, for example, let's use that. What are you going to like buy a bunch of SWE and put it on your Twitter profile, like the logo? How are you really going to become kind of like a tribe member or a team member of that ecosystem? But if you buy one of those little Klanosaur thingies that they drop there, like, okay, that represents to the world and to yourself that you're part of TeamSuite.

43:01Same thing for Ether. I think that if you, depending on the level of wealth that you want to flex, either buy a punk for$125 ,000. I mean, I do think punks go to a million. I think punks are like Bitcoin, whole different story from like the rest of the market. But if you want to flex, for example, like a wrecked guy, like, hey, I love what they're doing. I love they have a brand coin. I love the art. I vibe with this style of like, just like, let's just go. Like we've gotten wrecked in the past. Let's just. And so that's where NFTs are not just like a flex of wealth, but also an ability to identify yourself with a larger online community, which is what this whole world population humanity is going.

43:42And that's really what the value lies. And now if you look at NFTs that have intrinsic value, where they come from a particular artist or group of artists or duo of artists like Larva Labs, for example, where like, okay, they recognize in the art world, there's the actual demand for them. And you see like a trajectory that could be really positive. The long-term that, yeah, you not only get that exposure today to the community and the community is not just being on Discord and like messing around. It's to like wear like a Spurs jersey, for example, right? Like I wear my San Antonio Spurs shirts all the time and now they have Ledger as a sponsor.

44:17I'm going to wear it even more and walk around and have other people like high five me when they like see me in New York with a Spurs jersey. That's what NFTs are to me. And I think over the longterm, that's where the value comes from. But yeah, I agree with you. Like, are we going to get just any random collection, mint out,$10 million, pump 100X? No. I mean, I hope so because I have a lot of NFTs, but I wouldn't bet on that specific part of 21. I would just bet on teams that I've been building or art pieces that have kind of become ingrained with the cannon to really continue to accrue that type of value for the long term.

44:53And people wanting to say, hey, I'm not flexing that I'm rich. I'm flexing that I'm part of this group. I'm flexing that I'm cheering for the Yankees and they just swept the Braves or whatever that might be. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. I see that. That makes sense. I'm still kind of like modestly bullish, like low-key bullish on it. So we'll see what happens. There's not a lot of them. Yeah, there's not a lot of good stuff, I think. Yeah, I was like, there's good stuff. There's 8 ,000 Penguins. There's probably like 3 ,000 Penguins. punks i mean how many punks are actually out there for sale not that many right so a thousand punks are for sale like yeah it's not a lot um there's small numbers which i think can get those things can escalate very quickly and i think they will do again at some point questions whether it happens this time or not but um yeah one to look out for i just i still find it very hard to allocate a meaningful amount of capital to it It should not be the majority of your portfolio.

46:02It should not. Just because of the risk or whatever. The liquidity is fragmented and it's bad. The bid offer spread. Even if you wanted to dump 10 bucks today, you would take a meaningful hit versus just selling a million dollars of Bitcoin, which would be the equivalent, if you wanted to get out. I think that's where the risk management framework that you have really comes into play yeah okay fair enough um okay cool um so uh let's move on to you know towards the end of the show let's bring on the arch public guys um we have uh ceo and co-founder ceo tim let me start again ceo tilman and co-founder andrew parish also known as ap abacus uh on twitter welcome back to the show guys um i know you have an announcement to to make about sui actually which we're just talking about but um i want to comment on the good performance again of the gut of your algo in what was until yesterday a very long period of a 100 to 110k chop which um it captured very well curious to hear you know how the how things are looking with this big move higher and how i guess it'd be maybe useful for viewers to know like how would like the typical recipe operate and this kind of move when you have this you know massive wick on on a candle high on bitcoin and it holds and then yeah you know please let us know about the the sweet stuff you have going on as well yeah the the point of the algorithm is to be disciplined and to to not get ahead of yourself so it's not looking at this move any different than any other move that is a qualified event.

47:49So if it moves up by the percentage that you have it programmed in to move up within the timeframe that you have it programmed, it's gonna execute that trade and it's gonna execute it with the capital allocation that you've told it to execute it with. So one of the great parts is, you don't have to try to time the tops. If you look at any blow off top to any market, you should have been 60 % exited before the top. You should have been exiting systematically on the big green candles all the way up. And that is a difficult thing to do when greed is in play and human emotion is in play. And conversely, it's very difficult to sell when you're deep in a loss because you keep convincing yourself that the position is going to come back.

48:37So This is a very strategic money management tool as much as it is a trading tool that allows you to dollar cost average, but in a very intelligent manner. It's timing the dips and being available to take advantage of those dips. So, you know, one of the things that we talk to our clients about is all of these, you know, thought leaders in our space, like Michael Saylor, who say things like, you know, the volatility of Bitcoin is a feature. It's not a liability. Well, you know, that doesn't mean anything to the normal person because they're not taking advantage of the volatility. They're not scalping that volatility.

49:17They're not able to leverage against share price into larger purchases with that volatility. There's not an upside for them. If you're sitting 100 % in Bitcoin with no cash on the side to buy the dips, the dips are a negative to you, right? And so psychologically, we need to change that. And software, like we've built, helps somebody train themselves in a way where they look at dips as a positive thing. because dips are, if you're looking at accumulating a position over time, that's where you should be accumulating. That is where you should be executing those trades. So it's been an exceptional run.

49:58We would anticipate if the price continues to pump, you know, price discovery often does lead to large increases in price. We would see multiple executed exits on those tops, and you would be cashing out of half of your position. If you have a two-to-one bull bias, for example, you'd be cashing out a half of those profits based upon where they entered and what that criteria is. So exciting times. It's always nice to have accumulated a lot of a position at a low price and then get to exit that position for profit. That's what you can do. And Tillman is very humble about what we're doing and the way that we're doing it.

50:42But just to give you an idea, in the April lows associated with tariffs, just our stock, both 24-hour and 6-hour ARB strategy on Bitcoin, bought Bitcoin at 76, 77, and 78. Right? So you grab significant stacks of a position at those lows. bought again at 83 and 88 and 91. And then just two weeks ago, when the United States bombed Iran, and in the middle of the night, essentially, you had a flush down under 100, bought again at 99, right? So algorithms are set up to remove emotion and just simply execute based on the rules that they've been given. So they don't know Iran exists. They just don't.

51:39They just see the price action and they act on that price action. I think last night there were several exits on the six hour associated with above 116. Right. So, again, there's there's no emotion. There's just math and whatever version of that math of that equation that you're either either using one of our stock setups or you've made the own adjustments yourself, as everybody can do with our tools. you're going to get those executions based on math. And, you know, we've got a couple of charts that can be pulled up now that take a look at over a 90 day period. And if I'm not mistaken, that looks like our Bitcoin chart.

52:26And you can see the little blue arrows are all of the entries. And we try to point this out on every show that we come on with you guys. those entries always come on big red to the downside candles and the exits always happen on green to the upside candles and Tillman if you can explain what that what that means for folks yeah well in a perfect world you want to be buying when everyone's selling and you want to be selling when everyone's buying and that's harder to do in practice because we're reactionary as people we wait until the price moves and then we react to it. Well, algos have a lot of advantage in the fact that they can do math very, very quickly and they can do it on a multitude of fronts.

53:15So as you start to see markets get exhausted on whatever timeframe you're measuring them on, you're able to exit on that exhaustion before the volume dries up. And so it's just an advantage that is inherent in trading automation versus trading manually that comes with every trade. And it seems like magic, but if you really think about it, when a candle starts to pump, if you're looking at a one-day candle like we're looking at right now, look at those large green candles. You can see the wick above the body. You can see exactly a correlated volume attached to it. So if you're sitting there looking at, OK, I'm in profit on positions that I took.

54:01If you look at all the blue candles, for example, at the beginning of April, you know, those are great times to harvest a little bit of cash yield based upon the volatility of Bitcoin and the volatility of any of the assets like SUI, which we're excited to announce today based upon popular demand, might I add, we've talked to several hundred of the listeners of this show that have requested we want to use the algos to harvest the volatility of SUI. Well, now you can. It's supported on Kraken. We've launched that integration as of last week. So reach out to one of our team members. We'll help you get set up on the free version and you can try it to your heart's content and see what we're talking about.

54:43But seeing is believing. And the best way to look at it is, is the market does not wait for you. It doesn't care who you are. It doesn't care what time you wake up. It doesn't care anything about you. The market just responds to the buy and sell the market order book that is currently being traded against. And if something happens in the middle of the night or when you're picking up your kids from school or when you're at your normal day job that presents an opportunity for you to buy a dip and you're not sitting at your computer, you cannot take advantage of that. Automation can, and it can do it according to what your preferences and what your desires are.

55:21So it's completely user driven. So to Andrew's point, even if you use this tool just to exit at better fill rates because you're exiting on green candles, which have a lot of buying volume attached to them, you would have a benefit to using it.

55:43Makes sense. it's um it feels like what you want to do and what i do is you want to have your like big long spot position on you know whatever it is bitcoin e-salt and then you want to have this and in addition to that to kind of get you through that chop period and stuff and basically i guess i'd view it as like a yield on you know you have that's kind of how i view it Yeah, it is. It's especially we've we've started to launch partnerships like, for example, with Directed IRA. They're plugged into Gemini and Kraken. You can trade your IRA account tax free. What's better than trading automation or day trading automation, might I add, and having a tax advantage to doing that?

56:31So the future of crypto and the 24 nature aspect of the markets and the fact that now automation is being integrated natively into these platforms, it just gives the consumer such an advantage. And like you said, it allows you to produce yield. We did a case study against the last 12 months if you had put$100 ,000 of Bitcoin to work and you had just let it sit with its stock settings. And the stock settings against$100 ,000 essentially look very similar to this. Every time the market drops by 2.1%, you're going to buy about$500 of Bitcoin. Every time the market goes up by 2.6%, you're going to sell about$250 of Bitcoin.

57:19So there's a two to one bull bias in the cash being deployed on the buys versus the sells. And what that does is, though, it allows over time, if the market's choppy, for you to get a lot of those sell tickets through the order books. And those sell tickets have half of your profit attached to that entry point, you know, being sold off into cash. And that produces cash if the market trends sideways and is volatile. And so what I try to explain to people is you're not really betting on the software working as much as you're betting on Bitcoin or SUI or XRP or whatever you're trading remaining volatile.

57:58If it remains volatile and it's moving the price back and forth, back and forth, up and down, you're going to be executing trades against that volatility. Yeah. Yeah, the people that, again, we talked to hundreds and hundreds of folks that wanted us to give them a SWI product. And we did. And just look at the chart, man. It's just gobbling up on the way down. They've read candles on the way down and then it's not going to exit, you know, almost on a head fake. It waits till it absolutely pops. And then again, it grabs near the top. Right. So if you're somebody that's using this software and you love SWE, if you were doing it on your own, And, you know, at some point in that cascade down, you're thinking, should I continue buying this or am I getting my face ripped off?

58:52What am I doing here? Right. And then on the on the way to the upside, again, it's human nature. I'm not selling anything, man. This thing's going to five dollars in the next 24 hours. And again, that's not true. Right. So neither of those things are true. and because, and both of you guys know this because you worked on trade desks. Across Wall Street, automation and the ability to use tools like that is ubiquitous. It's everywhere, right? It's literally everywhere. But in crypto, it's not. And this gives people the opportunity to not be basically tricked by their emotions at any given point, to the upside or to the downside.

59:38allows them to harvest volatility. We often get asked because we have versions of our algorithms that are considered yield versions of our algorithms. And people will ask, well, where does the yield come from? And that's a question that harkens back to the scams of the past. The yield comes from volatility, pure and simple. It's just volatility that gives you the opportunity to not only accumulate a position, but also to generate yield from that same position. Yeah, that makes sense. I see that. And then Tosui is through Kraken, is that correct? It is, yeah. Do you guys have plans to get some more exchanges on and that kind of stuff as well?

1:00:22We are currently about halfway through the integration with Coinbase, and we have some folks over there that have been using the software and they're really excited about it. Kraken's exceptionally excited. We're going to be doing a Canada-specific launch with them here shortly. So, yeah, we've got some great stuff in the works as it pertains to integration. I think that's the fun part of being in this space right now is the fact that we've got such regulatory clarity, if you will, that the integrations and the network connectivity and the network effect of the people in the business and the developers, it's going to be a bright future.

1:01:02It's going to be a lot of connective tissue. And what about perps? Have you guys thoughts about trying to get perps onto the offering as well? Because that would be pretty, I mean, there's tons of perps traders out there, like active day traders, and they could just all be made, you know, redundant. So that will be launched on Coinbase. And we're hoping to launch that at a very similar timing to it being offered in the US. So that we're waiting for that. to happen amazing sounds good well yeah so i'll rather do this than trade stocks on chain

1:01:38really great show by the way i i love listening to you you have a great perspective and a lot of insight i'm a big nft guy as well i think they have a lot of intrinsic value as as a network um and as a unique identifier of value intellectual property and uh i really enjoyed y 'all segment about that. I don't think most people aren't talking about it. Most people have kind of given up on it as an art project that failed. And they don't, they're throwing the baby out with the bathwater. I honestly, I told somebody the other day, I think it's the future of mascots for brands. I think if you go into like these thrift stores that are selling old Coca-Cola signs, I think NFTs and collectibles will be, you know, have a digital aspect to them in the future but same type of marketplace.

1:02:29I definitely see that. Cool. Well, that brings us to time. Remember, you guys can register for Arch Public's algorithmic trading platform for free. If you go over to realvision.com forward slash Arch, you'll see the information and the details there. Please, please, please do check it out because I think it's a very interesting product. Before we go, a quick question for you guys. Please let us know in the comments. What's your next price target on Bitcoin? answers only above 120k are allowed anything else you will get blocked um half joking on that um make sure you're following us on x um osf underscore ret sergito sergito and try arch public we'll be back next friday at the usual time 11 30 a.m eastern time 4 30 p.m british summertime i hope everyone has a great weekend it's a nice end to the week for us all um have Have a good one.

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