Bitcoin Gets Rekt in an Epic Selloff | REKT Vision ft. Mando & punk9059 aka Stats

0:00Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world of that nexus of understanding of macro crypto in the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.

0:25Well, hello. I think last show, Bitcoin was hitting around 83k and it was heading lower this show we're at 69k but we're heading higher so uh there was a 25 drop at one point yesterday maybe even more maybe close to 30 actually in the price of bitcoin between shows and i did i did text the producer of the rect vision show and say this is not going to be a pretty one but luckily we're up a little bit um we have stats on in a great pink outfit, actually. Big fan, big fan. I've been speaking to you quite a bit, actually, over the last week because of the whole Ace Trader thing. So I think I know your thoughts, but it'd be great to hear what you think about the market.

1:09And it has just been an absolutely insane week. I feel like I just need to just, like, take a breath. Did not see this one coming. What's been... Did you feel like this one was brewing, like a 25 % drop in a week? I did not. No, I think, I mean, crypto is just so hard to predict, you know, because there's no, like, unless you're a chartist, it's just so hard. And I think this week was one of those reminders that when it rains, it can really like, this was just the dip that kept on dipping. Every time you tried to buy the bottom, you lost money. And, you know, I did not see it coming. But then when it's happening, you feel like you can explain it, you know, and I think that's kind of why this space can be frustrating sometimes.

1:56yeah this one i felt like we were going to have some support around the previous you know at least that level that we were around in um in april of last year where we kind of hit 65 sorry 75 to 70 78 i think it was and we kind of hit there and we we hung up there for like a day or two bounced this i think 79k and then just the dump continued it was it was pretty horrific it's yeah i mean a lot of people are attributing it to a lot of different things at this stage there was a lot of talk about the fact that the huge amount of volume was going through ibit and that uh and that it may be linked to to some some sort of fund who was also maybe involved in the silver trade because silver got dumped or maybe the um the software trade and it was like Bitcoin is selling off really as contagion to those two trades unwinding.

2:52But yesterday, it just felt like there were big sellers trying to get out, or we were driving down to try and get some liquidations. There were some very public liquidation levels on ETH between the 1 ,600 to 1 ,800 level. So those were more obvious. But for Bitcoin, it just felt like peak, peak fear. um yeah what's been your what's what's your best explanation you think for what's been going on i don't have as good a sense of flows as other people do i feel like they're you know uh cobyesce or whatever put out a big piece kind of dating everything back to to 10 10 and that's been kind of a common refrain i've heard i think you know i've i've said this we talked about about this earlier this week i think there was a very long trade that i personally believed in which was that the donald trump presidency was going to lead to the u.s government buying bitcoin on balance sheet um the proliferation of crypto kind of across platforms and just i just think there was this view that bitcoin has become a lot more prevalent and there and and once the u.s government bought then states had to buy and then countries had to buy and it was really a situation where there's so many buyers, you had to hide your Bitcoin.

4:08And I think that that just hasn't played out at all. Besson said the other day that the government's not going to be bailing out Bitcoin, just made it very clear, don't expect anything from us. I don't think being super pro-Bitcoin is actually all that popular of a view. And so I think from a government perspective, I think a lot of that rally was really the Trump pump. And right now, there's kind of this realization that that's not happening. I think, you know, of the issues that Trump has to deal with, if he goes up and says, hey, I love Bitcoin, and it's going to sell off, no one cares anymore.

4:42Like, he just doesn't have, like, the global pull, I think, that he did 12 months ago, or even the national pull for people to care as much or to believe in it. I think that's one piece. I think the second piece is, in the pump, we had a huge transfer to the ETFs. You know, you had old school people, like, kind of the diamond hands selling, and you had ETF buyers buying. You had a huge transfer to the DATs. I think all the DATs have gone underwater now. So all the digital asset treasury companies, whatever, have gone underwater. And I imagine if you're holding one of those, you'd rather just get your cash back than stay in a DAT.

5:16That's trading at a discount on AV. So I think you just kind of had a supply transfer to people who are from the diamonds to the papers. And that, you know, so then when it starts raining, like, who are you going to turn to? And on top of that, you know, the quantum story got a little bit of traction. in the traditional finance world, which historically doesn't matter. But we had such a supply transfer to the ETFs that suddenly what a Wall Street analyst says actually does matter. And it matters a lot. And you don't have Arthur Hayes going on stage with him at a Bitcoin conference to debate him and dunk on him like you used to if someone complained about quantum risk.

5:50Now it's actually in the hands of Wall Street, which is an audience that we don't really have access to. So I think you just had a lot there, a lot of natural. And then you had no, I don't know, who's the buyer going to be? who's going to say, you know, I mean, sailors cashed out. Yeah, look, I think that's a pretty good summary. There was a really good one by Alex Kruger, who's a Argentinian-based trader. And he actually gave 15 reasons, 15 reasons. 10-10, the DAT hangover, like you've said, crime syndicates, remember there was all this, they arrested all these Cambodian groups for the pig slaughtering crime gangs Quantum AI as just taking capital and talent away from crypto perception of Bitcoin is American that suddenly now with Trump it's suddenly become a bit more of a political thing institutions taking over being a bit less OG trump just general associations and political risks what happens when the democrats come back in not a lot of innovation the the casino massacre for pump fun and meme coins the oversupply of coins there's now 30 million coins um overvalued l1s that don't make sense i guess that's a bigger point uh never-ending uh supply which i guess you've mentioned dead digital gold narrative which i don't necessarily agree with and then several categories of equities imploding at the same time ed software i thought that was a pretty good list of 15 like if you're going to pick anything it's going to be on that sort of list at the moment it did feel my personal view is that it has just been um the ones that stood out for me just in kinds of conversations was the quantum risk was seemingly being worried about particularly by ogs and there was a there was a The interview with Mike Novogratz, or at least the Galaxy team, for their results this week, who mentioned that some of the biggest sellers had quantum fears on their mind.

8:01They feel really overblown to me. But if that's the thing causing long-term holders to sell, then that's the thing causing long-term holders to sell. I do think this final move, this gap from 78 down to 59, essentially, that felt like somebody blowing up. Like the style of selling that we saw in the last 48 hours just felt like somebody had to get Bitcoin off their balance sheet. And some people have pointed to kind of the like silver dropped horrifically as well in these last two days. And that affects a lot of Asian funds who are big into precious metals. And you had software as well getting absolutely hammered yesterday.

8:43Amazon was down 10 % after hours in the mag seven. And I think there was an idea that maybe we had funds getting carted out. I have been buying Bitcoin. I had a big ETH trade on when we were at 93K and then we went up to 98, but then broke back down, got out of that. Today at 64.9, it was when I woke up, I started buying Bitcoin. I think what this looks to me now, and the reason why I don't think we're going to go that much lower here, is we were in this range for a while. Like for eight months in 2024, we basically traded between 58K and 73, 74K. We actually touched like 71, 11 times, I think it was.

9:31I think that we're probably going to be in that range now. Like whether you think we break down or up from that range, we were in that range for a long time. It was very well defined. We've just hit the bottom end of that range. I think we're about to go back up and hit just touch the top end and then I think you're going to form probably a very similar sort of channel to what we saw in 2024 where that was a very defined ceiling which took a long time to break through um and also was a very defined like point of resistance too like we never really got below uh 58 so I think you can just take it maybe you a bit of a breath it if you were in altcoins though it was horrific solana touched 69 solana hit 69 overnight oh it looks like it may even went even lower like 68 maybe eath i think went down to 1700 i think in altcoins there are a few more liquidations you had carl samani who is multi-coin capitals maybe principal um gp he he stepped down this week as well he was the one behind the large Solana dat when prices are at$240.

10:49What do you think about the altcoin trade here? I know you've never really been a big fan other than ETH, but are they just dead in the water here? Do you think anyone's going to reach for them? It just feels like those are horrific moves. I mean, I don't feel like altcoins are a weird category, right? because bunches of altcoins make big rallies. And then I almost feel like once your day is done, there's an 80 % chance you're done forever. And then something new makes a rally and something new becomes the new casino. But should we be going back into like, I don't know, into Mog, Bonk, like the meme coin stuff of...

11:28No, I feel like that attention cycle is over. RIP. Do we want to go back into like L2s and their coins? Like that feels like a terrible trade. like so when you when you know but does it when people say alts are dead does that mean you can't get a new wave soon i think right now the pain that people feel from losing money and all this is way too high to get a total animal spirits rally again you know i just don't feel like that's coming right now you know maybe some of these coins that you know the ai coins whatever that all got up to billions you know the virtual stuff like they just go in bunches and i think it's very hard to talk about that entire group as a whole uh it doesn't mean that there aren't going to be new trends i don't know this does not feel like an environment though that's ripe for animal spirits you know where people are more worried about not participating in a rally than they are worried about losing their money i don't know it just does not feel like that's the moment we're in yeah i think there's a separation between maybe the l1s and the um and just like the the generic altcoins and when you say l1s what's that basket i would say that doesn't include hype so because i think that's more like an app so i would say solana eth let's say sui bmb is slightly different because it's so linked to the company itself um what else would there be i think those those are like the top ones right like maybe there's a backs there's there's there's a couple of others in around that sort of level but those coins are just got absolutely destroyed in this move they haven't really even bounced like solana's sitting there at 86 right now that's a year i mean sue is getting absolutely basically at all-time lows more or less um yeah i mean i kind of i kind of think like soul eth and bitcoin have kind of graduated to just being the ones that people focus on as kind of you know they're just kind of the more global plays i wouldn't even put sui in that basket i because i think all this stuff is like reputation trading and outside of our space i don't feel like sui has that much kind of name recognition um um xrp i guess would be one that has yeah i agree like sui sui perhaps didn't get through its adoption cycle uh fast enough like it did feel like it had a shot there but um now you know things move very quickly and then they can move very slowly this this gap down from 93 to 59 or wherever it was was was pretty quick um if we look back on the on the bitcoin charts we're talking about three weeks yeah three weeks this is the third week to see 40 drop basically i think we could start to be a bit slower here i did think that was the beginning of the end of the sell-off and i don't know if that's the like sorry beginning of the end is probably not the word i think that this is a period now we go sideways for a bit that's my guess i thought we would have that period at 78k but now i think you can be in a channel and hopefully we form some sort of consolidation it does feel like macro looks a little bit weaker now like i look look across the board every single major tech stock kind of broke down on some of the trend indicators that i'm following and there's been a lot of worry about firstly it was worry about software of which things are down 40 they're kind of like meme coin charts some of these like down 40 50 percent maybe even more for some of them and then there was the mag 7 of which google has held up okay but everything else has looked pretty uh pretty horrific amazon like i said was down 10 percent And it's all based on this AI spend.

15:37People are suddenly getting very, very worried about the AI capex. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. Do you have a take on this? Do you think AI is going to have a second wind here? I really did feel like that after Claude Code came out. I was like, wow, this is such an amazing piece of tech. And actually, Claude Code came out and everyone realized that all these SaaS companies are worthless.

16:12And they are somewhat scaring people that AI could actually be at a value erosion trade for some stocks. Well, yeah, I mean, I think there are a few things going on, right? Like one is like IGV is a software ETF. And that's, you know, that's Adobe, Microsoft, you know, Oracle, DocuSign, all these software platforms that have kind of taken over the world. And I think that there is a view that cloud cloud code and is just going to make it so a lot of maybe enterprise doesn't need to spend all that much money on these external solutions. And you're like IGV has gotten absolutely demolished. demolished.

16:56We're back to, you know, this has been a huge bull market and, you know, that ETF is back to 2024 levels. So I think like that, but yeah, so it's Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Intuit, Adobe, you know, ServiceNow, stuff like that. That stuff's just gotten absolutely destroyed. And I think it's on that view that, you know, I think corporates are the big spenders here and that corporates are going to be able to do a lot more software building themselves and not need this on the AI play. Yeah. So the interesting thing is Amazon's getting absolutely annihilated today down like seven or 8 % because they're spending too much.

17:28But TSM and NVIDIA are, you know, TSM's at an all time high. NVIDIA is trading very, very well. So when you actually, and I think that that trade is basically the market saying, shit, Amazon said they're spending way too much on AI. Well, who's getting that money? And it's, it's still like these semiconductor and these fab companies. So TSM and NVIDIA both hitting all time high, NVIDIA is not hitting all-time highs but nvidia has been very solid google has outperformed uh relative to like the amazons of the world and it's like the guys who are getting that spend are the ones who are doing well uh and the guys who are spending it are starting to show some weakness although i mean these have still been very strong stocks i still feel like amazon is set to benefit from the robots taking over the world they hire a lot of people who do a lot of manual right yeah i would think I thought they were making their own chips too, but it does just feel like the stock market has suddenly got a little bit of jitters just around the value destruction.

18:24I think we had a little whiff of this. If you remember in the first move of the AI race where it was like, oh my God, search is dead. Search is dead. Google's business is broken. And then Google didn't trade that well and then suddenly started trading amazing. and we've had a little bit this with SaaS where it's like oh my god every SaaS company is dead and I don't even know if I agree with that yeah I still think it requires organization and products like maybe it meets the barriers to entry low but it doesn't necessarily mean that all SaaS companies are dead that was kind of my well that is a strong statement yeah people were worried about this for Salesforce for a while right there was like i think reed hoffman not reed hoffman who's who leads salesforce benioff yeah benioff sorry yeah he was like defending it and saying oh you know we're going to be amazing with ai and and everyone was slightly questioning it and then now it's been like really big questions about it uh i i'm sorry i mean these are very resilient businesses historically.

19:38These guys have made a ton of money, and they continue to make a ton of money, and people are very wedded to these platforms. I think with stocks, the question is, is the 10-year trend feeling different than it used to? Like with Uber right now, I talk about Waymo. I was in San Francisco, and I used Waymo instead of Uber, which is basically robot taxis that don't have a driver, and I used it to get around. It's just a better experience than Uber, I think pretty non-negotiably. I use Tesla's RoboTaxi in Austin, and it's an awesome experience. And I was telling my friend, who's always been at Uber Bowl, he's like, dude, these are in three cities.

20:20Who cares? And it's not about what they're in now. It's about how do you look at the 10-year trajectory and is the growth? Did we lose him? Lost him. Lost him. Yeah. maybe i'll just take up his mantle but yeah i i genuinely think that now it's about oh you're back i know sorry i didn't even know i was lost yeah yeah but i'm saying about the yeah like the four projections of of waymer yeah i was just saying like yeah so does it just do these technologies yeah they don't it's not gonna be like tomorrow i'm gonna clog code something that's gonna compete with photoshop of course not but like are these you know so why is adobe selling off but the question is like is the forward-looking trajectory in a world where the big barrier to entry that these companies had feels more more vulnerable are those stocks you want to own because you know these things aren't trading these things don't have like seven percent dividends they are trading like stocks that are going to grow their dividends over time because they're going to grow and the question is is that something that people are starting to question more uh and i i don't know the answer it's i mean ai is starting to replace jobs i think like we like The job numbers of 2025, at least in the US, were not good.

21:38AI is starting to have impact on stuff. And I guess, what stocks do you want to be a shareholder of to get that benefit? I don't know. Yeah, I do think that we're starting to see a bottom in that. And I do think that might even be a bottom in, coincide with a bottom in Bitcoin. the silver moves and the gold moves were even even more volatile it felt like this week silver dropped from 110 down to 65 at one point yesterday and that that caught a bunch of people um a lot of asian funds were apparently involved in that trade which which may have been the cause of the weakness in bitcoin it's it's really difficult after move because you kind of like you look through all these different things you think it could be kind of anything and then you kind of read a tweet and you're like oh yeah it was just maybe we oversimplified to assume it's one different thing i just felt it in the market yesterday that everyone was freaking out every like everything that could go wrong in the market yesterday seemed to be going wrong you know what i mean amazon just like dropped 10 after after the market closed after a horrific day for bitcoin eth and it just felt like oh my god i think it was it was sailor on an earnings call yesterday which maybe didn't go that well.

22:52And then it just felt like everything was kind of coming together at the same time to take us down. I mean, Amazon was basically the market bottom. So the market did not sell off on the Amazon news. We were at 63 ,000 Amazon reported earnings and it was kind of up only. So it had already troughed. But I also think like basically anything that felt speculative, basically like assets that don't generate cashflow or that have been piled onto because of momentum all took a beating so silver gold copper like uranium stocks nuclear stocks on the nuclear narrative like there's an etf ufo that looks at like stocks that are focused on space like these have been narratives that have been huge over the past three months they all took anything that doesn't generate cashflow just took a beating and then bitcoin did too but i'm sitting there thinking, guys, we didn't participate in the rally.

23:46So why are you hitting us? Like, it was kind of like, let's take the air out of the balloon, like out of a silver that had already been up like 70 % year to date, you know, as of a week ago, copper, where, you know, that was just trading stupidly, nuclear fission stocks were on fire. And all that stuff was what got crushed. But then they took Bitcoin with it. Because I don't know, I'm like that maybe there's like this bunching of maybe it is a thing where guys who want to own these speculative assets that don't generate cash flows kind of own a lot of this stuff together and maybe there wasn't unwind there but as a holder i was kind of like fuck this we weren't part of the rally why are you taking us down you know isn't this where we're supposed to do the opposite and we just we know there was no no love spared for bitcoin there it's been like that for a while and to be honest it's felt kind of fatalistic with the four-year cycle stuff i know you have benjamin cowan who's who's nailed the cycle really by just saying we're gonna have a four-year cycle saying you know we're going down to the 200 week moving average and i think we touched it yesterday or at least we came within one percent of it it it just kind of felt like we were going there no matter what and it's we've spoken about this before it just seems so reductive and simplistic particularly because bitcoins had like obvious correlations to other things at times and it felt so after the um you know after the etf and then after after you know trump came in as well that we were suddenly going to move away from this sort of world and that bitcoin was going to continue to correlate with like gold and global liquidity and and we've ended up basically just having a classic four-year cycle now it kind of just feels a bit like well what are we doing do we just buy this thing i mean if we are there this is the time to stop buying it feels like but you know i i think also though i think you got to be careful with some of this i mean maybe there's a fundamental story around the having or something like that or the u.s presidential election cycle like these are four-year cycles and maybe there is something fundamental instead of just being like voodoo but you know a year ago someone would have showed you the global m2 chart and said this is exactly when you buy Bitcoin, it's always worked.

25:59And then I'm too ripped. And Bitcoin's been an absolute piece of shit. So like, I don't know, I get a little hesitant to get too engaged and too wedded to a chart because, you know, charts can tell you to go fuck yourself if they want. Sorry, but charts can try charts. Like if you get too connected to them, I think that can end in a lot of tears because you're sitting there saying, wait, I'm tooing up Bitcoin, like do something knock knock and then it's been six months of people who had that trade on basically getting carted out on a wheelchair yeah i think that's that's something that i i was a firm believer in and then when we continued to drop there was a point i think where bitcoin was trading 120k and i remember seeing a chart being like if if we follow gold and global m2 we should be at 160 and so i thought i'll look at trade you know like we're gonna we're gonna keep on ripping here and then we went down to 110 and we hung out there for a little bit and then we went down to 100 and i was just like the trader in me took over at that stage it's like it's time to get out it doesn't matter if you think you could either be like wedded through a view and be be right at the end or you can just protect yourself.

27:13So from that 100K move, because I think it crossed the 50-week moving average at that stage, and I was like, that's a very key level for the Benjamin Caron thesis that we're going to do a four-year cycle. And that's really going to have been out. I got back in when we just started this year when we broke back up again and got in around 93K and was riding it back up to 100. We got to 98 and then dumped back down. and it's got my stop loss basically out of that one. But luckily I have not necessarily been caught. I've been able to catch some of these smaller moves. I do think it's an incredible, like if you've lost money during this period, which I'm sure some of the viewers have, or you haven't done as well as you wanted to.

27:58I said this on a show this week. I do think this is just an incredible trading period. Like I have had, despite getting that wrong view on the overall trend, you can still get smaller views right and make a ton. Like breakouts of different altcoins. We had Zcash. We had Monero. We had Hype. Hype, we spoke about a few times on this show. It was a really good long. It had a great week. Hype was up to 34 this week. One of the few things up. You can catch really good trades because volatility is so high right now. And there's so much opportunity. And particularly if Bitcoin does just start to stabilize here, you'll see altcoins, some random altcoins do crazy moves.

28:40So this really is the time to lock in. And if you've got the market direction wrong, you can make it all back in one trade here and more. No doubt. I also have the view just like, I think people forget that it's a marathon, not a sprint. that's that's the number one thing i see i see a lot of and this maybe is a big thing of the new generation as well i think ai is just going to replace everyone and i need to make it as quickly as possible but i'm generally of the view i thought about this the other day like i could live potentially till i'm 100 here you know like who knows what's happening with health now that ai has come through just seems like everything is accelerating there unbelievably quickly with things like protein folding it feels like a lot of diseases we're going to have very good cures for by the maybe the life the hope answer vaccines are apparently working really vaccines for cancer are actually working right like you're gonna see crazy stuff like you can already tell um you're gonna see crazy stuff if if the google deep mind guys are winning a noble prize for protein folding like and then next week they're bringing out a a world building model like how many noble prizes for chemistry have brought our world building model uh a year later like it's you're gonna see incredible stuff here and the idea that you just have to make it straight away is i just there's so you should be so happy that stuff has come down because these are the really great trades you know like if bitcoin does become this asset again which i really do believe it's it's a better form of gold that and it goes and it's still here in 10 years it's going to be worth so much more than 69 gay it's gonna be worth so i think there are there are two things like one i was waiting i mean along with all the charts that you can point to and say hey we should be bouncing one the ratio the the relative relationship with gold to the relative relationship with nasdaq like gold is like an inflation proxy a chaos proxy uh what the fuck's going on proxy like bitcoin we always thought traded well in those environments and it didn't.

30:45And gold was telling us that this is a time for it. NASDAQ, like Bitcoin as a risk proxy, NASDAQ basically going towards all-time highs. Partially, yes, there's AI, but I think there's also just people are saying that this is a very extremely high spending administration right now and the Democrats are high spending as well. So there's no reprieve. And anyone who thought that Trump was going to spend less clearly was wrong. He's a big spender. And in that world, you just want to own stuff like gold and Bitcoin and stocks. And then we just never got those bids. Now, I think, Amanda, what you were just saying, though, is why I think this quantum story is so important, is because if the idea is that Bitcoin is a better version of gold than gold, like I know if I take my gold and put it in my basement and lock it in a safe and put a fireproof house around that safe, that gold isn't going anywhere.

31:35And in 30 years, if I go back and find it, it's still going to be gold. And I think that this quantum narrative puts question marks around that. The whole point of a gold alternative is one that you can literally lock up for 30 years, never, ever think about ever in your life. And then in 30 years, you die, your grandkids go get it, or hopefully 60 years in your case, given your health situation. But like you go back and you get in six years. And right now we're saying, well, maybe eight or 10 years, you might have to actually bridge it. And if you don't, it might be gone. And so to me, that whole narrative actually is kaput at that point.

32:07It's like, why am I owning this? Now you're scaring me. Now you're scaring me. But I do think... I think I've fought this for a while, you know? And every time I talk to a Bitcoin Maxie, they say, well, it's down the road. Like, you get the most hand-wavy responses. I think crypto thrives off hand-wavy responses because a lot of people are like, well, it's worth trillions of dollars. And I don't understand what they're saying, but they seem pretty smart and something about tech. and every now and then if i'm i'm like increasingly the view like if i don't understand something then i should assume that there's a problem i i've said this a few times on the show they did need to come up with something we on the strategy call or the microstrategy call yesterday they did say look we're gonna we're setting up a quantum style fund similar to like a quantum exploration style research fund essentially to look into this for bitcoin and it felt like maybe that could be something that people get behind a little bit for bitcoin i think after this sort of move people have to take it that more seriously and and i kind of feel like they they have or they're going to just because bitcoin literally just dropped what 60k from from all-time highs feels like uh feels like time to maybe make sure you don't have any blind spots uh when it comes to quantum it does feel like there are in some ways that there will always be some coins that are going to be exposed to quantum like if it's really just about how few how like how they upgrade it to protect some coins rather than all coins like satoshi's coins may be gone in every scenario with the wrong actor with with uh with by her quantum computer it's one of the things also i think the more decentralized the harder it is to fight this because at the end of the day getting group consensus over existential threats is quite hard uh especially around something like crypto where kind of like the native code is so holy in some ways and i think that people say oh well the entire world's going to blow up like the banking system it's like well i'd rather just trust a seat like chase to go high chase bank to go hire a chief technology officer who is an expert in quantum security and can be like okay i'm making every single key 500 characters instead of 50 characters i don't even know if that sentence makes sense but this feels like something that i would have much more faith in a centralized actor you know if simply the goal is to fight off this threat i think when the goal is fighting off what is a generally agreed upon threat i think centralized solutions work better and i think that you know something where you need group consensus and you have a lot of holders who aren't even there and you have original maxis and stuff like that like i I think it actually works against the space.

34:52That's such a good point. We've tended to find even the more centralized chains have been much easier to upgrade. Like Solana has been much easier. Hyperliquid, they basically rolled it back at times. Whereas Bitcoin, the decentralization will make it more difficult to do this. And I think it's not every Bitcoiner has the head in the sand. It does feel like there is a vocal group here saying that you need to take it seriously. We need to bring this up. years before it happens because it will be such a long process and i'm starting to hope that they they're gonna gonna win out look my honest to god view is that bitcoin probably won't be the thing in in 40 to 50 years like i or at least i've discounted that quite a hard way but but do i think it will be a thing in like five to ten years i think it will be like i have no idea what the world will be like in 50 to 60 years like it i think you have to discount most things to a really low level um particularly new technologies right bitcoin is not that old so in my mind it's like i guess i'm not that worried about the 50 to 60 thing right now because i could look at every company in the stock i mean how many stocks have been around for 50 to 60 years let's say the top stocks in like was an nvidia no apple no oh maybe i think but i think it's kind of general consensus that you should just on the s &p 500 because it automatically rebalances into profitable companies that that have high market you own the s &p yeah and bitcoin feels like only a stock so like it's very difficult to know what world we're in in in like 50 to 60 My issue with what you're saying is that Facebook makes so much money.

36:45And in the next five to 10 years, they can pay shareholders so many dividends to make it worth it to own the stock. They actually have that. Bitcoin's only purpose is to be around in many years. That's the only purpose. The whole purpose of this whole thing is this gold alternative. One thing that's been around for 100 years, gold. And that's what we are trying to compare ourselves to. Like if Bitcoin were out there generating cash flows for people or doing something other than just existing. But I think like when you start to question the longevity of it, that's when its whole purpose is longevity.

37:16I think it's very different. And you can tell my voice cracks. I mean it. Like it's very different from a Google or a Facebook where you're basically just betting these guys have a monopoly. They're taking out every competitor in the world. They're buying everything they can't beat. and they just grow because of the monopolistic pricing power and a bunch of administrations that don't know what to do about them. And they're just going to keep making money and paying those out to shareholders. And that's kind of 50 to 60 years agnostic, right? Whereas with Bitcoin, its only purpose is to exist for decades.

37:49Yeah, it's true. It's true. I mean, there's obviously other cryptocurrencies that were meant to be Bitcoin killers as well, like ETH and that narrative is less aggressive, it feels like. I think to your point, though, like to your point, like, yes, like, you know, we could get into another. Cryptomania again in the next five to 10 years, that's you know, we we've had many, many a mania without even with this quantum risk on the horizon. It's not like this is a new concern, you know, and we've been able to go from 20 ,000 to 120 ,000 despite it. So maybe your point is just more like we could still get very fertile grounds for a massive pump.

38:30Yeah. So I think we have enough. Basically, that's exactly what my view is. We have enough time. Do I think Bitcoin is really digital gold and will be in 100 years? Like in my mind, that's always been the weakest bit of it. Like who the hell knows what happens? You know, maybe there's some sort of not nuclear winter, but maybe there's like a solar flare. You just never know what happens to the world in 100 years, whereas gold would always survive in that environment. I think it's very difficult, something this intricate, to necessarily survive for a really, really long time. Quantum is the new threat.

39:06I do think it will be a legitimate threat, but I don't think it will affect all of Bitcoin. I think it will just affect a subset of it. But for now, I think we still have this sort of environment where Japan continues to blow up. You continue to see, like you said, I think we're about to see actually quite a big deflationary shock come to some bits of the US with the idea that prices for software are going to have to come down, prices for various different things that have to come down we're gonna have job losses in that sort of in that world and the fight against that i think will be money printing again uh all over all over the world so i think bitcoin to me sort of self like it has the shot here even now i look at it i'm looking on a screen right now and it's at 70k and i'm thinking this is a great trade it's going to go up to 100k like something about like the fact that it's not at six digits and it's and it's still got like a 40 % move now to get back to 100k like I like that I feel like it's there's a good thing about it being down here it's basically I think I think suddenly now it looks attractive I was speaking to somebody else the other day who um actually today who was like it's so weird I had three different people say to me hey should I buy bitcoin one guy at the gym a friend of his and today my trainer at the gym was like oh i bought some bitcoin and i was like this is what it needs this is actually what it needs it needs the i think i can 2x my money and i think at 125k maybe there was a little bit of like the view around that had to be so extreme that people weren't buying into it and the faintest whiff of quantum which may be even really a threat right now was enough to like scare people a bit right now i almost feel like if you're in bitcoin you're kind of on the front foot a bit again like at 60 in the 60s i know it's just gone above 70k so well done everyone but there is there's a decent bounce slash 2x trade here in my opinion i mean yeah and look i'll i'll turn myself in i'm very good at explaining why yesterday's move happened as you know no one ever no one ever made money off yesterday's move though so uh yeah maybe what we're seeing here to your point like if there was just a pure force liquidation yesterday that happened like it has been a pretty violent bounce back for sure and we need that that's what you need from a bottom that's like from that i mean look at these other bottoms they're just like little they're like balls bouncing down the stairs this this looks like it could be a 20 percenter here so if we hit 72k that's 20 off the bottom in a day that's that's great that's what you want to see that that tells you that we're not gonna fall through the uh the floor that quickly anymore it's it's it's the best sign i've seen i do think i do like my gut tells me it's 71 72 just given that very defined range that we had before but this this is good enough uh people can hopefully take a breath if you're in bitcoin so mando i got i got a question i tweeted i tweeted this is the time to lock in you can make it all back in one trade wrecked mando at wreck mando i quoted you from our podcast but is that something you want to be on the record saying i don't know i can delete the tweet 100 % I believe that full like so wholeheartedly all right let's go often people say when you lose money or like when there's a really violent move I'll touch grass like take some time away from the market no no this is an incredible I woke up this morning the first thing I want to do is buy a ton of bitcoin which is what I did um and I haven't really been involved in bitcoin but I just felt the risk reward of that trade was suddenly just so good that I could easily see a 10 % move.

43:06It's done a 10 % move. That's been a great trade for me. Probably the second best trade for me in three or four months, like I did today.

43:20Luckily, I had liquidity to get involved, and I hadn't owned it all the way down. But if you have any liquidity, look for trades right now. You're going to see violent, violent moves. There's no doubt in my mind. Maybe we'll see like a retracement here and it'll be violent you can catch a short but there's going to be great trades here i think so yeah i do think you have to be locked in yeah yeah no um that uh look i i guess the the thing is is is the signal to you just something that feels like a forced liquidation as opposed to just and you know this this has been the dip that keeps on dipping right and every time you would have gotten on a call and said, you know, I woke up and bought a ton of Bitcoin, you would have lost a lot of money.

44:04But what was different this morning? I read a tweet by an account who pointed to the idea that this could be linked to