Bitcoin Pushes For $100K Despite Macro Uncertainty | Mando & Wizard of SoHo | REKT VISION

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1:35Hello. We're back for another episode of WreckVision. We have another special guest because OSF couldn't make it this week. He's in Dubai, shilling Wreck drinks all over UAE. This week, we are going to be joined by Wizard of Soho, pseudonymous. I'll keep you as Wiz for the rest of the show, but ex-Wall Street, ex-macro trader, bond trader, I think to be specific, moved into crypto, I think just before we got in, but obviously I've been dancing around prop trading and crypto before that. And I guess we got kind of close when I got in in 2021. And I think I've only really gone closer just by being one of the more professional heads who stuck around.

2:17Great to have you on, Wiz. How are you doing? Good, good. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it. No worries. I think it'll be good. we'll be able to get through a ton of different topics today. I know you have a ton of different macro views as well as views on meme coins, NFTs, all that sort of stuff. Later, we are going to be joined by the Archpublic guys, which will go through the Bitcoin setup. But how are you feeling about the market in general here? Obviously, today we've had a bit of a macro day. You had payrolls, which kind of came in slightly better. Middle of the week, you had that very weak GDP figure and you had the higher inflation figure, which everyone was screaming stagflation.

2:54but the market just has kind of shrugged it off and we've just kind of gone higher in stocks um i think part of that is positioning part of that is maybe an expectation that we're going to see some more like a more dovish reaction um to a weaker economic picture how do you think about the market right now uh you know honestly it's um i was talking to my community this morning i think it's not that simple anymore like if you ask me you know a week ago or at least when um you know Bitcoin was around like under 80K or 75K, when NASDAQ was lower, I could give you a much stronger view. But now you're in a situation where gold's still sitting at 3 ,200 plus.

3:36Rates are moving higher. 30 years at like 4.75 something. Stocks are moving higher. Volatility is going lower. So there's a lot of contradictory moves. At the same time, you have, you know, the nine, it's been nine consecutive days of stocks going up. And that's the first time that's happened since like November 2004 or like some point in 2004. So almost like, you know, 30 years, we haven't seen a move like this, like a consecutive run. Now, you could say that, you know, we really shouldn't have gotten lower that much, you know, on the back of tariffs and so on. And that's a good argument. And we're just kind of repricing that.

4:20And a lot of stuff's nowhere close to where it should be, right? Like, obviously, Bitcoin is nowhere close. I mean, it is getting close to all the high, but it's still a ways to go. Even if you look at stocks, you know, look at Meta, look at Tesla, there's still a long ways to go. But it makes it seem like it's, you know, we had great earnings. Meta put up great earnings. Apple put up great earnings. Stocks are still doing well. So we're back to the Max 7 thing. It's not like everyone's doing well, but then you have this contradictory market thing. Like today, when payrolls are coming up, people ask me, like, what do you think if the number is good, you're long or short?

4:58And I was like, you know what? I don't know because good news can be bad news and good news. It just depends how the market takes it. Like you could have a strong beat on payroll. So you could have a higher, you know, employment number, say, say unemployment number rates they stay in, but you have a headline number that's higher, which we did have. We had under 27K. You could be like, OK, so strong economy. So maybe inflation worries. Powell's not going to want to cut. He'll still stay hawkish. By the same time, you're like, OK, we were worried about a recession, which what the market was kind of pricing in.

5:34so maybe we should reprice that because the economy is doing good because GDP was so bad but it was kind of like a fake GDP number but still it's not great so it's like wait so are we going in recession or not so we need to reprice that but then gold didn't go down so it's like wait we still worried about recession so you know we're at this point where it's like I think you could literally flip a coin and like that's how it is there's nobody can convince me with a strong conviction other than some kind of bad bias that the market should go a certain way like i if you gun to head i think market should pull back a bit i mean we're seeing like it doesn't seem like people are like as euphoric though because i think like most of the people are not in the positions where that have moved a lot so you should not feel like it feels like it's positioning it feels like it's position yeah that's what it is but it's but the numbers are like so crazy right like you're the whole this whole cycle has been positioning because there's only certain things that are moving.

6:35You know, like premium cycles, you could just buy anything with like, say 5X leverage and you were going to print. Like it was a, it didn't, it did not matter. You did not have to have any coin selection, stock selection, anything like the 2021 cycle, like everything moved up. Now, if you're not in the right stocks, if you're not in the right coins, it's night and day. So I don't know. I think it's a very tough market, especially right now after this little rally. You want to take profits if you've been long, but then it's like, look at Bitcoin chart. It could just go straight to 100K plus. And then it's like, I think I need to talk about 95K with all the confirmation traders gone in because that was the reversal on Bitcoin after it hit like 74.

7:23Like 95K is what a lot of people were looking for. So those guys are not going to sell until it hits like at least 105K plus. So I don't know. I think it's tough right now at least.

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8:49I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. so just click on the link below and start your journey now look just to dissect some of the things you said that like i think for me this kind of might be a little bit of covid um and obviously the i guess the drawdown was not that dissimilar it was quite a deep drawdown but when it started rallying and it felt like oh you know this is just like a relief rally and we're going to continue down lower and then it's kept going and now it's whatever it is like the the longest winning streak for stocks in 20 years and that points to me that like nothing's really gotten that much better over this period like the trade situation doesn't feel like it's going to be resolved anytime soon or at least it doesn't feel that much closer to being resolved you have some pretty weak economic prints and economic prints would point to stagflation so it's not like you can just be like oh he's going to immediately print money and you know we're going to be fine um i think the feds still got to make a decision there if inflation kind of heads higher maybe they'll do qe by another name um and i kind of think like even even big tech obviously at the start of the year you kind of had some of the china worries around ai and and various big um catching up on various big tech stuff i don't think that's necessarily in the rearview mirror either so i think a lot of those like more secular shifts i just feel like are still with us but it's rallied and it's continues to rally and then people people make a narrative after it's gone up and go like well that's what that's what happened it for me it just feels like it was chasing and we can kind of see that because every single dip that you saw it's got immediately bought it got immediately bought um and the fact that retail was buying and institutions were selling hedge funds where they're like the most short stocks they'd ever been.

10:48It just feels like one of those squeezy rallies where the narrative will make sense at the end and then we'll all realize what actually happened. That's why it reminded me of COVID. I remember when we first started rallying at the bottom of COVID and it was like, oh, don't buy this rally. This one's going to be bad. And then it just kept going and going and going and going. And that has a little bit of a feeling like that to me. So macro, I agree with you. it hasn't made a lot of sense for me for a little bit here because on yields going back up to 5 % I think I really it's really that's really quite scary gold going higher you would normally assume is not that great an environment but now stocks are rallying um and you know taking back a lot of their their losses um it's but yeah it's still mag seven like it's earnings based right like we had earnings this week and you saw you did see good earnings which is great, but it's on the back of tech again.

11:42So look at that. Apple and Amazon beat expectations, but it's not rosy underneath. That's a great point. We're rallying because we just saw these good numbers on these big tech stocks, but the underlying is still... I mean, yeah. We probably never should have dumped that much. We had 12 % moves, 15 % moves in stocks, which you saw during COVID there was no reason we should have seen moves that big so yeah we're seeing some volatility correction like you know look at VIX it's come from like 50 plus it's still elevated at 23 23 is still elevated VIX maybe around like 15 you can say that we're back and like up only move but I don't know but it's so 58 58 is like oh god stuff's about to get really bad but that's the thing right like so is see gold saying recession rates are now saying we're good like like rates going higher just saying that yo we're like back like full in that the market can sustain five percent uh bond yields means like you think growth is going to be amazing or maybe it's just you know you have foreign nationals or something like selling bonds or like long end of the curve or like you think that, you know, Fed's not going to be as dovish as you think.

13:11Look, two-year notes move 10 basis points a day, right? How does that make sense that stocks are up? Take Nasdaq's up one and a half percent. Yeah, there's like two free stocks that are up. It's just pushing it up. Why is Bitcoin at 97K when interest rates are like moving up? It's up 12 basis points. Like, someone's wrong, right? Clearly, someone's wrong. Somebody's wrong, yeah. Let's actually get into crypto. Obviously, this is not just a macro show. It's more of a crypto show. I think in this show, we've really been kind of Bitcoin focused, at least for the last couple of months. It's really been a mixture of Bitcoin plus what are the left curve plays that you want to do.

13:52Obi's been more on the AI stuff. I've been more Bitcoin heavy, but got into Fartcoin and Tau, kind of my two um what what are you looking at are you are you also just have the view that bitcoin dominance is going to go to the moon here and watch it yeah i mean it is ridiculous it's like you see i mean i think i still don't understand why people keep pushing this altcoin narrative i mean the there is altcoin rally happening i mean look at like things like virtuals you know it's up like crazy you look go look at um go even look at like certain meme coins right like look at the popcat obviously part coin look at even uh like chill guy chill guy is up to like 50 million like from you know like 10 some million like i mean it's not the best you know comparison but yeah there are things happening look at sui sui is a great example sui is hit like what four something yeah look at the virtual shot like how insane is that you're telling me a 2-3x that's almost going to be a 4x from the lows on like you know medium to large cap like uh ai coins meme coins like that's a that's the alt rally that's the all coin season happening it looks like it's like getting close to topping out at least i would think so if uh like you know it's bitcoin dominance has been so tricky to play because you see like when Bitcoin runs, everything else kind of tries to run with it.

15:19But then at every red candle, it dumps. So like net-net, you end up lower everything else as Bitcoin dominance goes up. But then when Bitcoin starts dropping, you would think like Bitcoin dominance would go down, but it increases even more. And then you have everything double-dumped. You know what I mean? It's like if you kind of figured that part out early this cycle, like you've done really well trading-wise, you know? And it's still tough. I don't see a scenario where Bitcoin dominance is just all of a sudden going to go to 40%, 50 % or whatever, even 55%. I don't see it. Bitcoin has become such a strong macro piece.

16:04And the liquidity in it is so insane. Nobody wants to buy dog shit coins at the large scale. right like if you're a fund large fund and you want crypto exposure you're like oh i dig at etf that's very liquid i'm gonna go buy that i'm not gonna buy some you know uh random evm layer 5 uh vc coin right like that that world is done um i mean look at all these even look at like bear and stuff or bear or whatever that's called but any of the new launches like tell me any new launchers that have like you know maybe hype it's back up it pipes the one hype seems to be the one but i think the l1 trade we we've spoken about a bit on this show that i think the l1 trade is being really affected by it's just just stable coins i i i think the need for the l1 is actually a currency is massively diminishing and they're really becoming gas tokens and even as gas tokens they're kind of being replaced like metamask is allowing you to do transit act on any sort any token uh including stable coins and a lot of apps are going like either going gas free or they're making um it so you can basically do it in in dollars so it feels as though for me that's like a shift that i don't see the one chart alongside bitcoin which i'm super bullish on in crypto is stable coin tvl it's just going to keep on going right and then you just kind of have to wonder how do you need other currencies?

17:37That's a great point. So can you pull up the chart of stable coins over the last, like this rally we have had, how much of stable coins have been deployed? Like, are you seeing that chart go down? No, no, no, it's up only. Exactly. It just keeps going up. It just keeps going up. So the way, exactly, good point. So where no one's deploying, where market's going up, funds are not deploying. Look at Warren. They're doing the whole Omaha thing right now, right? Like his annual thing. He hasn't deployed anything. No funds are deploying, but market keeps going up. Why is Sui up so much? Why is virtuals up so much?

18:19I think with altcoins, it's a zero-sum game right now. In fact, in many ways, it can be a shrinking game. I don't know what the altcoin market cap has done over this period, but it's definitely obviously not as much as the Bitcoin market cap so it feels as though Sui is probably winning versus ETH do you know what I mean yeah well that's the thing it's pushing the sand aside that's exactly what's happening this whole cycle right if you consider right now from 2023 the move like 2023 December to sorry 2023 January to now to like Trump coming in. That's what I consider one cycle. I mean, we went into like Bitcoin 16K to like 110K or whatever, right?

19:08You saw a lot of like, you saw Solana go from$8, whatever, to like 250 plus. So that's what I, that cycle was all pushing the sand aside, which it still is right now. The only time it's not that is when you have a stimulus, right? Because it's like, that's when meme coins and like NFTs and stuff really run, right? because it's like, think about like a cap with like buckets and then you have like money flowing into like say Bitcoin, which is what people always, this is how it historically worked and people thought it was going to work again because they were like, oh, once Bitcoin pumps, then that money where people are going to take profits and then they're going to invest that into EAT and SOUL and the people in that pumps, that's going to go into altcoins and then that pumps, that's going to go into meme coins and then that pumps, that goes to NFTs.

19:54But it's not like that because that first bucket, there's no connection to the second bucket anymore because all that first bucket volume sits on ETFs and like tradfib books, not on centralized exchanges as much. Central exchanges are just playing around mostly with leverage, right? Like it's not just the fact that stable coins have gone up so much, like TVL of stable coins kind of proves that, that you're not seeing stable coins being deployed in like spot Bitcoin as much on centralized exchanges as you did, or decentralized exchanges as you did historically. That's why there is no trickle-down effect that doesn't exist.

20:35But for something like that to come back, you would mean... The whole M2 supply that makes Bitcoin go up, that's not really working out as it should. You know what I mean? Because that money is just staying. It's not getting deployed. And whatever is getting deployed, it's going in tech. And that's kind of it. Maybe in dollar, yeah it's difficult to it's difficult to work with where where it's kind of going um do you have a strong view on that like also from the natural international perspective here do you think do you think the reason why bitcoin's maybe going up is this questioning of dollar hedge in money or do you think it's more just um no i don't think that's uh so my my view was when I saw this rally, especially when...

21:22So you know when there was this rumor that came out maybe two, three weeks ago that China's dumping treasuries that saves selling? It was when the trade war should escalate. I think when the second set of cards went in. So my view was that because gold started rallying like crazy, it was being like 3-4 % candles every day, which is insane, right? It shouldn't do that. My view is that they were... Because if they're selling treasuries, which they probably were, seems like it was from whatever color I got off the street, where's that money going to go? It's got to get deployed somewhere. You can't just sell and be like, what are you going to keep it in yen?

22:01Or euros maybe? But there's not enough of that for how much they sell. So you're going to keep it in dollars. But then what's the difference between you keeping in treasuries or keeping in dollars anyway? What was the purpose of that? Just making rates go up and weakening your own existing position? So I think what they were doing is that whatever they sold, I think they deployed it in gold and they deployed like a small chunk in Bitcoin. But because Bitcoin is such a small liquidity pool out there relative to all the other assets, that's one of the reasons it's been pumping so much, that initial pump they had.

22:35I think it was just whoever was selling, maybe somebody, I think it was just China just selling the treasuries and buying a small component. but I don't think it has anything to do with their view on the dollar or anything else. Cause they still owe the shit kind of dollars and treasuries. But I think they were just deploying it because you have to deploy it into something. You can't just keep it like, you know, dollar cash. So I think that's, at least that's my view. I don't know if that's, you know, it's true or not. The price action kind of shows that like, you know, who has the money out there all of a sudden got liquidity during the trade war.

23:12to start buying gold and Bitcoin like that. Forget Bitcoin, just start buying gold. And then you think it trickled down to Bitcoin as well. The channel always has been kind of bullish on Bitcoin, right? So changing gears slightly, because we've seen a slightly more macro, and then we just talked about an overview top-down for Bitcoin. I think you're basically saying similar things to me. Is it Bitcoin, and then it's maybe you've got to pick your spots. It's kind of similar to what it was last year where Bitcoin dominance went higher, and meme coins tradable. Kind of feels like having a little bit of that this time, except it's memes and it's maybe AI and a couple of other smaller coins.

23:50What do you like? What AI coins do you like? I wasn't like all the, I wasn't that stuff like A16Z and... Oh, you're in Farcoin. You're in Farcoin. Yeah, I'm a big, I mean, yeah, it is a AI coin. I mean, I am very bullish on Farcoin, but I do think we should see, I mean, do you not think we should pull back to like one at least or zero point? like i'm really trying to bid again at 0.9 it's very consensus as a trade right now i think that's the one risk of art coin is that everyone thinks it's the coin and generally that's not a great time right point like it needs to the hope needs to die a little bit again and then it catches everyone off guard so and that's what that's why i think it's weirdly the rally and things like virtuals has been stronger because that feels like it's just caught people out you know it's it's these sort of narratives that have caught people out and ovi was actually pretty good at that stuff to be like that narrative will come back and everyone's suddenly under invested to it he probably was buying way too high uh to begin with um but he was right and that actually the stuff that bounced the hardest off the bottom was in the ai in his ai coins and uh i've owned tau which i quite like but it's really just tam far quantum only uh ai coins but i was good yeah What do you think of the L1s between Solana and ETH?

25:18No, Will, do you own any of those? It's just Bitcoin? No, no. I do like L1s. So I'm excited for that Tari coming out. That should be good. I think you can still mine it. I know a lot of people mining it. I've been mining it. I think that's an easy play right now where you invest like no money, just need a laptop and start mining. I think it's going to get tougher as more people are going to, especially after mainnet launch this week or next week. I think it's going to get a little bit challenging to just mine from just a regular laptop. Maybe I could be wrong, but I think if you're just looking to farm something, I think that's going to be an easy play with almost close to no base level investment.

26:00and you can print. Hyperliquid airdrop was, you had to trade a lot. You know what I mean? So there was a legitimate risk. But Tari airdrop, there's no real risk involved. Just go and mine and hope for the best. I think it's going to do really well because I think privacy layer narrative is definitely going to come back. And I think you should see Monero as well start moving up. I think that's kind of being pushed in America as well. You're kind of seeing those coins, like they were kind of on the ban list uh like any privacy layer stuff like you know like tornado and stuff and i think with the trump administration they have kind of um eased up on it so i think tari narrative would you know like maybe that's you know it's not the best way to say it but it seems like there's a lot of uh people in power who want to like you know not showcase their money on the public ledger are going to push for, you know, maybe privacy is a good thing, even though, you know, it's kind of antithesis of what crypto is supposed to be.

27:05But there was a lot of demand from Monero before, you know, people started banning it. So I think now that it's getting unbanned, we should see push. There's a mix, isn't there? Like I saw it today, actually, that Europe said it plans to ban these privacy points by 2027. But at the same time, the U.S. has basically just allowed tornado cash. Yeah. And that's a court ruling. So it feels like that's going to be a difficult one to suddenly come in and overturn. So I'm interested to see how they develop. There is definitely a need for privacy changes. I don't think people love the idea that when you want to do anything on the blockchain, everyone can see it at times.

27:44No, I think that's definitely going to be... I think that's why I think privacy layers are going to have a big comeback. and all that stuff is extremely undervalued. And I think if Tari does well, especially, it'll bring that narrative massively. Because then if that does, people are going to chase betas and then you'll see more investments in that sector as well. And obviously, like Monero used to be like, the cult of Monero was like an XRP cult, like in its heyday. So I think, especially now that America is like a pro privacy layers and they're, you know, completely okay with all these things.

28:20I think you're going to see a big comeback on that side. I think that narrative will see a lot of flow of money, which is going to be cake, which is, again, it's going to be a lot of sand being pushed aside again. So you'll see that money go from the Eats, the Solanas, the Suis, stuff like that, into Atari or Monero. One of the other big stories this week was Sailor came out today or yesterday and said, I think in October he'd announced a$42 billion that he plans over the next three years to raise$42 billion to buy Bitcoin. Today or yesterday, he said he wants to double that and he wants to split it between $42 billion of equity and$42 billion of fixed income, which I assume would be dead.

29:12What do you make of all this situation? Because when I saw$42 billion of fixed income, And then he's a B credit, I think, maybe B plus, but like, yeah, it's 42 billion things to get spicy. What do you think? I mean, maybe that's a consensus thing, too, that everybody thinks he's going to result in the next big, you know, crash of Bitcoin. And we don't really make the real big, big move like that 200, 250K move on Bitcoin. until you redistribute a sailor's position. But at the same time, Manishet just keeps going up and he keeps printing. And the demand is there. The demand is so much that you got guys like Cantor and other funds that are like, we're going to do this too.

30:03It's just free money. And you're going to see more. You're going to see more people. The fact that Cantor is doing it and Cantor stock, what, it went up like 2, 3X or some shit like that. It pumped like crazy when they said they're going to do the same thing. I think you're going to see more and more people do it and you're just going to have this massive centralized risk. But he's got how many percent? Like 1%, 2 % now? Maybe more? He's got 2%, I think, right now. So he's going to aim for what, 5 %? I think he's got just less than 2%. I think his original aim was to get to 2%. Yeah, he's not got 2 % now, but when he's going to have, with the new funds, it's going to be like 5 % almost, no?

30:47Yeah, it's going to be high, right? 80 %? Yeah, that's insane. A 5 % concentration risk. I mean, you tell me. Would you ever invest in a meme coin? Levered. Yeah, levered concentration risk. So you don't even have to be a big-time investor. Say you're buying a meme coin. You just look at a meme coin and you see on a bundle there's a 5%. What would you do? would you buy it i always give a different example which is like if your friend if your friend told you i'm gonna buy 42 billion dollars of bitcoin and take a loan out to do it you'd probably be like that's madness it's worked though it's worked for him that's the thing right that's the thing it's worked so well that as i'm not thinking it's not but like it worked Still, I won't.

31:39I mean, history always will repeat itself. And there's been these kind of things in every market. And you need to have that cleanse at some point. And it'll just be a history lesson eventually. But look at it this way. If 5 % of Bitcoin was dumped, I mean, it's not going to be like that. But even if it was, the liquidity that exists in Bitcoin now is significant. like probably 100x what it was even like three years ago with the ETFs, right? So I don't think we're going to see a scenario where you went from like 67k to 16k. Like maybe you go to 50k. Maybe. Maybe you go all the way up to 150k and then you go back down to 90k or 80k.

32:27Like, okay. So that's best case scenario. So let's hope that that's what happens or that he just you know, he says he's never going to sell, so whatever that means. You maybe need a Black Swan event? Like, I don't even know. What's a Black Swan event that could cause a 50 % dump in Bitcoin? Like, what kind of move? You're never going to have COVID scenario again. No one's going to go for that. People would rather just die than, like, shut down again. So what, like, asteroid hitting us? Does that master, I think, is the question. Like, if he has up kind of maturities, which he has to roll, right if he's refinanced it what do you mean but will he be able to refinance it people are giving him infinite like just money bro for whatever well let's say he has 84 let's say he has 40 billion of debt he has to refi um i think there's a chance where he may not issue more debt to to just do that of course yeah you would have been america has been doing this for like hundreds of years you might have to just sell the asset though like there's two options there if he doesn't get those three options he either gets liquidated he can just sell so say could sell right at a big profit he's up a lot who knows in two years right he's only been doing but that's what he's doing right so i think you have to think about it this way like what would be a scenario that would send bitcoin to 40k like you had this massive trade war shit where stocks dump that like They haven't dumped since COVID, which was the last big real black swan event.