BTC Reserve, White House Summit— Is Trump Delivering? REKT Vision ft. OSF, Mando & Andrew Parish

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2:35Well, hello, everyone. It feels like we've gone back to our usual scheduled programming here, which is the market dumping on a Friday, and you have to listen to me and OSF speak. for an hour um we are back again with real vision we said last week we were bullish and you should be buying um it feels like an age ago uh we've been up down up down about five times uh in in that space of time um just want to mention just before we get into everything with osf we are we'll be joined later by andrew parish better known as ab ap abacus um we're going to be working alongside arch public um which is our new affiliate partner uh it's an algorithmic trading platform um and he's gonna be coming on the show slightly later to talk about it you can go check it out already at realvision.com forward slash arch all right osf how are you feeling um it's been a whirlwind of emotions over the last week i just remember that last friday we were really pounding the table on this is the time to buy risk you know you should increase your positioning up the risk curve get more aggressive you know instead of chasing bitcoin when it's up at 110k you know buy down here at 82k whatever it was 81k on that day and then on monday when we went all the way to 95k or whatever it was i think you and i like we really called that like oh we should we Start flipping it.

4:09There were some text exchange being like, yeah, we really nailed that one. Oh, yeah, we nailed it. We're geniuses. And within 12 hours, there were no more texts. Literally, like, complete retrace. We are up. We are up from that point. Well, we're up on Bitcoin from that point. I don't know how... Solana's up. Solana is barely up yeah it is up actually but it's barely up 180 180 on sunday night or monday whatever it was ether's down ether's lower since last friday and every single other coin that i watch and own is is down to be fair we were talking about bitcoin um so over a long time horizon right And this week, I feel like I've aged.

5:03And I've been way more defensive this week. But I feel like everyone's felt that as well. It's not just been crypto. It's been macro. I think there's been... I saw a stat today, which is like over the last two weeks, the stock market has moved on average$500 billion a day. Similarly, crypto volatility has been wild. You don't need to be trading meme coins. Bitcoin goes up and down 5 % a day at the moment, sometimes like 10 or more. It's back. Crypto volatility is back. It's a very strange time in that the macro sell-off has really accelerated over the last week. We're now at an actual correction in the NASDAQ.

5:49A lot of major tech stocks are down big, big. Things like Tesla are down like 250 again. um you've had big moves in uh in a number of the ai companies nvidia is probably the most obvious um it's it's and that has kept us very volatile in a time where we've seen you know still some decent headlines for crypto we like we've got a accelerated strategic bitcoin reserve this week and the market just kind of shrugged it off what do you think? Do you think this is the sort of period where we can continue to outperform macro? We were just looking at tech stocks before we went live because it feels like we're in for a classic Friday, everyone freak out because I don't want to own anything over the weekend I don't know if you have that feeling I looked at tech stocks this morning and they they try to do a little bit of a bounce on the open and then they're down one percent again uh and you just you just know those fridays in the office where it's like i don't want to own a single thing on uh by monday um i reckon there's a bit of that going on hi raul here listen i think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives now it might not be the exact date but it's around then so we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future i've put together a report to help you called prepare for 2030 it's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030 so just click on the link below and start your journey now yeah i think fridays seem to not really be your friend because people don't want to own risk over the weekends because it's just Trump headline risk.

7:45You know what's funny? All the Trump headline tennis now, it really reminds me of 2018 and some parts of 2019 as well, I think. Just sitting on the trading desk and just being like, man, I just did this trade because Trump said this and one day later he said something else and now it's just moved the other way and it was just completely unpredictable um and actually the best time the only way i found to make money in that period the best way i found to make money was like whenever he said something markets would really move and then just to fade that move or take the other side of um yeah take the other side of that position and eventually he would say something to revoke the negative thing and it would like value all the way back and then you'd like sell it at a profit like i was kind of like started to do that a little bit on crypto um where he would say something everything would nuke or so everything would nuke and then he'd say something else and just be like oh yeah but we're gonna do this this and this and everything would like get back up again but it just seems it's very the market feels very similar to 2018 2019 where it was just like this basically on all the tariff stuff but it was it was that but it all it all went higher right you had that panic at the end of 2018, which I think was more to do with rates.

9:08But that all got resolved. And then, yeah, 2019 was just...

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11:10Then you faded the, yeah, each headline, even the sell-off right now, it feels as though Bitcoin, I know crypto is obviously broadly has not done as well, but Bitcoin kind of has outperformed decently here versus stocks. If I was all in on tech stocks, I might look at something like Bitcoin right now and be like, right, well, they've clearly pro-Bitcoin. It seems to be a very stated aim of Trump and the administration right now that they do not care about the stock market, or at least they're not paying attention to it. They want to fix the budget. They want to focus on the 10-year yield. They want to focus on government efficiency rather than the stock market.

11:55And I don't know if that's actually going to hurt his popularity. I know like classically, you know, presidents live and die by where the stock market goes. But I feel as though there is a case to be said here whereby if he does manage to balance the budget in the first year or have one of the best budget deficits for many, many years. And brings down inflation and potentially even brings down asset prices, particularly like real estate. I don't know if those things are necessarily unpopular. You know what I mean? They might be, particularly not with young people. These are things where a lot of young people feel like they are paying for the excesses of previous generations.

12:44And I think this may be, you know, he could hurt the stock market for a little bit here and now. I don't think many people, it wouldn't be fatal. It definitely wouldn't be fatal, particularly because the way he's trying to do it is more austerity and we're going to see how all this tariff stuff works. But yeah, I do think that we could see the stock market continue to perform. And I don't know if Bitcoin's the worst trade in that either. I think it could be, it still has this gold-like aspect to it. And I think people might still like the upside of it as being kind of promoted by Trump and I guess semi-new tech, do you know what I mean?

13:28Or at least tech which is going to be more promoted under this administration. So I feel like this could be a medium-term trend. I'm not saying if the stock market doesn't go down another 20 % or something like that, we won't see Bitcoin volatility go crazy. And you could see it wick all the way down. But I think it would be one of the best things to buy on really bad days. yeah i do agree i mean you have you have this etf slash institutional bid you have this thoughts of a potential sovereign bid to it obviously we had the bitcoin reserve announcement yesterday um so i think it's starting to become in its own league and i think um unlike large parts of the market i think i wouldn't underestimate this idea of like fixed supply and when you first start looking at bitcoin just see all these bitcoin max he's talking about oh i was going to say 21 million bitcoins and when they're all down they're all gone like um but because it's a bit now you're one of them now you're one and and thus my transformation is complete um but it is like you kind of see it you know you get you get everyone onto the same idea and there's a fixed supply or something the price can go a lot higher it's just basic math so i think um that that i think is probably the explanation to bitcoin having some sorts of bid i know we had this big puke down to like 78k of whatever it was the other day but i think it was like since then a lot of the leverage has been cleaned out we had like billions of dollars of liquidations over a period of a few days and it's quite clear to me positioning that is now clearer and that's just like not only outperforming versus stocks if you want to look that way but also bitcoin dominance continues to rise higher while all the other alts nuke so it's just in its own league and it has its own story and that story continues to develop and i suppose we should talk about the sbr stuff and the reaction we're going to do it in a bit more detail so look i i don't know what um tiktok was projecting for this but this is kind of what i thought this would be and we'd spoken about this pretty openly as well that executive orders, you can't spend Congress's money, or at least it has to go through Congress and the Senate for it to then be approved.

15:55And their ability to do anything like sell gold to buy Bitcoin or their ability to print money to buy Bitcoin or their ability to use other fiscal methods to buy Bitcoin was going to be very, very difficult, or even to do tax cuts. so it was most likely to be something like this in the end we got we're going to have a digital asset stockpile Bitcoin is going to be something that we actively look to try and increase our holdings of and then they're going to have a broader crypto stockpile of other altcoins of which ADA, Solana, XRP were all mentioned and ETH

16:41and it feels as though So we're still a little bit light on detail about how that is going to happen. They're talking about fiscal neutral ways to kind of increase the Bitcoin holdings. At the moment, they said they're just going to keep the Bitcoin that they've confiscated so far, which is in the teens, billions, I think it's around 15 billion. but they there is some like anticipation they could potentially bring in sort of tax revenue against crypto companies maybe miners were paying bitcoin maybe they would they would start mining bitcoin alongside some of these miners there's been some talk about like yeah like maybe energy subsidies and they'll get some bitcoin on the back end of it as well but it feels as though the government is at least aligning itself towards bitcoin even if it can't go out there and outright buy it.

17:33That would always be very, very difficult. Now, at the same time, we've had a number of states come much closer to buying Bitcoin. It does feel as though we're probably going to get 15 to 20 states moved towards some form of Bitcoin reserve policy. Texas, notably, looks like it's pretty close already, which would be one of the bigger ones. So it feels like we could get a lot of buying at the state level. And that's not even starting on the company's level. the legitimacy will allow other companies to get involved, other countries might look at it. So what was your take here, Rosef? Do you think we did sell off after those headlines and everyone was like, well, this is kind of still very, very bullish.

18:12But do you think it was just people just didn't understand what could happen? Or do you think this is actually a disappointment? I think just to forget about the actual fundamental content of what happened i think the way in which we found out it was done was just done in a way where it didn't really it kind of like we had that like announcement over the weekend from trump's truth social which everyone's like is this real is a scam then you had like mentioned the other top five coins and then you had the whole like um who is it that posted it like arthur hayes was like well they all this was like the original eo anyway so it's not new news and then if you Oh no, actually it is now an EO.

18:58It was just not communicated in a way which I think allowed markets to feel confident about it. If we didn't have all that kerfuffle with the other random coins and then saying this and saying that, if it was just like Trump signs executive order to officially have strategic Bitcoin reserve, and David Sacks was like, yeah, we spent the last two months doing our research into this, looking at it, and we thought it's going to be a good idea. That's what we're going to do. and when the next stage is to look at, look to see how we can increase our holdings. If that was the only communication, I think we would be at 95K or higher and I think we would have held that level.

19:35But it was just like these back and forth headlines and misinterpretation and reinterpretations of what they're saying and people going levered long and getting wiped out and then wiped out on the shorts and wiped out both ways. It was just a complete mess and the communication wasn't clear. and I still think there's some dodgy stuff going on where like someone's on Trump's, whoever's managing Trump's truth socials posting some random thing and then people are trading off of that and that kind of stuff. So because of that, I just think it wasn't communicated in a way and now the market feels a little bit like, well, okay, so it is real, but now we've had all the excitement and by the way, I already got liquidated or I'm already down and it's just, you know, it's just fallen through the cracks a little bit.

20:16So I think what's happened is really, really positive fundamentally. You can't really deny it. Like, Now, compared to this time last year, there was a complete U-turn on the whole country on pushing Bitcoin and crypto structurally to the point where the US has a strategic Bitcoin reserve. That's a massive, massive thing. And some of these things have to go through Congress, et cetera, to be officialized. And it's a process, but it's a huge, huge U-turn. And you could argue and say, well, it's a huge U-turn, but this time last year, Bitcoin was what, like 50K? And now it's like 87K? So it already has moved up 70, 60, 70%.

20:53But all the other coins are probably down in the last 12 months. Ether's definitely lower. I think Sol is probably unchanged or lower. And all the other oil comes down. So there's an argument to say, yeah, maybe Bitcoin is starting to get priced in, but it's not priced in the other stuff. And so I just think there's been a lot of crime stuff, a lot of messing around with communication, and everyone's just trading themselves into spaghetti. spaghetti and we just need a bit of time for these headlines to be processed and people to realize they are positive and things are moving in the right direction and i think you know as i said we've always said like this is going to be like some sort of like six month chop start the year off and even with some of these headlines coming to fruition earlier than i would have expected the chop thesis seems to be the right one still i think yeah i think i think um this did slightly disappoint just because like you said some of it is priced in and i think whether whether we were more realistic or not like some people had wild predictions about what could happen maybe misguided um so it it feels as though part of that had to be priced priced out let's say um i think there's something to be said also about crypto is a catalyst driven market in my opinion do you know what i mean like um often as with a lot of markets you know everyone's focused on this one thing gonna happen and i we've kind of brought forward that that strategic bitcoin reserve and it's not it's you know it's not like they're they're they're selling gold to buy bitcoin it's probably um just a more measured uh strategic bitcoin reserve and i do kind of think to a certain extent like where is where's the thing for the next few months um you know like we've had etf and then we've had um and then we have the strategic bitcoin reserve kind of take over from that the only other thing i saw this week that i think could drive demand and why we've maybe seen a start underperformance even in the sell-off of kind of l1s and um and DeFi is this tokenization move.

23:05So this week we saw Coinbase say they're going to look to list coin stock on their platform, obviously starting the RWA trend, which has kind of been spoken about, fabled in crypto for many, many, many years. And now it feels like we could be getting relatively close and we could get some regulation around that. soon um and that would kind of maybe be a movement away from trading altcoins on chain to trading but having tons of stable coins on chain and it really kind of replicating the financial markets um in that you could trade stocks bonds various other things um and on on various if these are ones maybe maybe massively increase the the amount that goes through them is there any other catalyst you see apart from that which is like a huge one like i saw something this week from a prominent VC in the space, he says, he said they think stablecoins on chain could get to 1 trillion by the end of this year, and that tokenized stocks could get to 200 billion.

24:15That to me is quite a big statement. 1 trillion, I mean, the whole market cap of crypto is under 3 trillion right now. So it's a huge amount of money to come on chain. That's like the main one I see. Is there anything else that you've looked at and been like, okay, this is going to be a thing now? Because you were talking about the strategic Bitcoin reserve. It's like your thing for June to get us out of it, out of a chop. Is there anything else you're looking at and going like, well, this is going to be the thing?

24:48Not really. If you want to switch, you're just a bit scary now, isn't it? It's a bit scary, yeah. I was thinking the same thing. I was trying to think this morning of different things. I don't think Bitcoin Reserve is done because I think another part of the reason why it's not priced in, I think Batsupium did a good tweet about this, which was like, a lot of these things still have to go through Congress. And even though there's an executive order out there, these things aren't done until they're done. And obviously, I think people are more focused on, you know, it's great that we don't have the sell pressure now from the US selling its Silk Road seizing, but it's not the same as creating incremental buy pressure.

25:33and I guess that's still a big thing I think to look forward to because the US finds a way to create a way that's mutual for taxpayers to buy crypto then I think that is interesting it can't add it already owns Bitcoin but it doesn't own XRP it doesn't own Cardano doesn't own ETH. They feel like they're post-credits. You know what I mean? They feel like, okay, so we'll finally see it being enacted in some sort of way. I don't know. You need to see that. Crypto suddenly just needs something, I think. Maybe the state's buying. We could see billions. My counterpoint to what you just said is

26:25for Bitcoin ETF, we had the announcement that it was approved and then we kind of sold off on that if you remember and then in the months to come actually bitcoin basically doubled because there was real buying pressure that was created as a result retail who previously wasn't involved in crypto were now buying bitcoin through etf so my counterpoint to what you just said is like it's potentially it's an you know it's an afterthought but it does mean it will actually actually create real buyers and buying pressure that will have an impact you would think to a much bigger scale than just the cts would especially if come if sovereign nations start being competitive about how much they want to own and again that's where the whole like fixed supplier scarcity thing comes in because it is you know it's not just like oh hey let's all buy the us dollar but it just depends on like what price we're buying at to have our holdings or let's just all like or treasury bills whatever it's not it's nothing like that it's like let's hope but it's all hot by this thing which by the way like if any one of us start buying it to fucking just fucking moons at like 20 right so it's like it it's a very different i agree i agree with that so that's that's why i would say like yeah i think the having stuff on chain is great and you know tokenized coinbase is great and all that stuff is good i think but i don't think it's going to move the needle that much i just think it's like where is the buying pressure going to come from who's going to buy this and we have some institutional funds by investing in ets but as soon as like sovereign nations actually start buying it other people will join into that trade like you and i will join on that trade but also other larger institutions um and then you know middle east already declared holdings so it's just like that for me is a really big thing that you just can't really fade but it doesn't happen overnight it takes time have to be patient um yeah i agree with that i think i think the US, as we've just spoken about, because there's the three branches of governmental power, the executive office, Congress, Senate, it's difficult for them to just immediately start buying Bitcoin, although on the state level it's seemingly being done easier.

28:29But I think the three biggest names in terms of who could buy Bitcoin here are Russia, UAE, and China. Those are the three that kind of jump out to me. Who will have a, could have some form of a sovereign purchase program or maybe via their sovereign wealth funds. UAE's already started doing it through one of its sovereign wealth funds. It's a few hundred million so far, but that could easily go into the billions. China is kind of the one unknown here. Russia's embracing it hand over foot at the moment so that it can basically get around sanctions so it's really embracing crypto and there's a lot of even commentary this week about the fact that they're they're directly embracing it because of that um but china china may be unbanning crypto because is that the next is that the catalyst for 2025 that like gets everyone super bullish again maybe they have a because they're like so many of the miners are based in china right or so many of the huge bitcoin whales are based out there could they go down a policy a bit be a real reversal but that that would be um that could be a bullish trend i think and then um then it's like more on the company level so yeah maybe we get one of the big bigger tech companies buying it although if their stock prices keep on going lower i don't know if announcing it i think bitcoin policy might be seen as too risky i actually just don't even know but but it's definitely with every single day i see a new headline about hey this person's gonna start a a crypto reserve for their assets.

30:11In fact, this week we had the first ETH one, BioNexus, which is a listed company, said they were going to have an ETH reserve. And I think everyone kind of double took there and said, have you seen the price of ETH? Their stock price actually went down 50 % on that. No. It does feel as, yeah, it legitimizes it. And we probably don't know what we're going to hear about. But I guess the ones, the unknown ones would be something like China doing it. And then I would say if we get really concrete RWA policy, we might get something. Senator Loomis, actually, who's leading one of the Senate crypto committees, she has been the one behind talking about selling gold for Bitcoin.

30:56And she's meant to make some form of an announcement on Tuesday, I think. So we could see something at least be brought to one of the, maybe the Senate about a policy around that. And that would be interesting, I think, to see. Even if it got rejected, it would be interesting to see it get voted on. Somebody else mentioned that the U.S. does have other brand matters it could sell. There was commentary today on X, I don't know if you saw it, but the U.S. apparently has$2 to$4 billion of Swiss cheese. Have you heard about this? Yeah, I did see this. I just see. So apparently it's been going down and someone was like, who's eating all the cheese?

31:39It's clearly an Iron Mountain, you know? It's like sitting there in the bottom of the vault. Wait, does cheese have like a shelf life? I don't understand. Am I missing something there? You know, obviously certain cheeses do, but I think a lot of them can stay good. I don't know, for a while. I don't know if I'm eating like 10-year-old Swiss cheese. Feels like something we should use itself for Bitcoin, if I'm honest. I don't think anyone's going to complain about that. But yeah, we could see like random headlines about what the US could sell to buy Bitcoin in this like fiscally neutral way of doing it, which it can maybe push through.

32:21I think we should maybe linger a little bit on macro here as well. I'll just talk about what's been going on because there has been a pretty drastic payroll today as well. Yeah, it's just been kind of weak job figures, tariffs, and kind of a focus on austerity, which has just been, and kind of maybe a breakdown of the global world orders to a certain extent. Europe is rearming. The US is basically saying, you know, particularly after I have him recently with Zelensky, it's whether you agree with it or not, it's taking a step back from the world. It's saying that we don't really care about all of the smaller, we're not going to get involved in like smaller regional conflicts unless there's some interest in it for us.

33:13And that's really freaked out Europe because there's a lot of thousands of year old regional conflicts there, which NATO is basically semi-protected from flaring up at various different times. And now it feels like it's all could kick off again. That caused a little bit of a bond sell-off as well, particularly in the UK and in Germany and in Japan. And there's a sudden worry that, you know, a lot of these other countries can't afford to even spend this amount on more defense. there's a lot suddenly feeling like it's going wrong on macro how do you think this plays out do you think Trump is just like sandbagging the first year causing this huge sell off and then who knows like maybe in the year's time we get there's a lot of room for monetary policy to ease right from where it is 4.5 % and QT and maybe that is the put that comes in and everything gets saved yeah i don't know it does feel like a does feel like there's a bit of sandbagging your kitchen sinking as you may want to call it where it's like hey let's just get let's just get everything out on the table and gutter it and then we can work our way back from that um it doesn't really again it doesn't feel that too dissimilar to his last term you know he's just he's just start he's just hitting the accelerator so much earlier than he did last time it's like it's like a continuation we like you could forget the last four years happened and you could probably like marry end of 2020 with excluding cover the end of 2020 with the beginning of this year and it's all his policies and everything like sort of like in line with what he was doing so i don't know you know he said today doesn't or the other day he doesn't look at the stock market that much and um i don't really know what like the overarching goal here is whether it's to take actions that will create cause the stock market to rally in the short term or like on a daily basis every time you say something or if there's a longer a longer play here or there's more focus on interest rates like that's the other thing as well like he's always calling for interest rates we've been in a strong environment for to see that happen to any like meaningful magnitude and maybe that's an angle too I'm not really sure like you could say that's another theory, right?

35:40Kitchen sink it with everything you want to do, stuff pukes, and then say, okay, we need lower rates. That's another angle for it as well. But I don't know. It's too difficult to predict. I don't really know what his aims are or what he's trying to do. And it's difficult to trade because things are at crazy valuations. Now they're starting to get volatile because people are worried about the downside, given where we are. and we're not seeing meaningful steps being taken

36:12by Jerome Powell and those guys to get aggressive there because quite frankly, there's no need to with current inflation levels and still current activity levels. Inflation is getting hammered though, right? Inflation is getting hammered, yeah. But even payrolls today, yeah, it was a little bit below expectations, but it's not like the 150s is not like terrible range to be in if you're there consistently it's if you start to draw when you start to go sub 100 people really start to panic and think oh shit now we need rate cuts but we've been in this sort of like 150 and don't forget there's massive beats we've had as well in the past 12 months we've been in this like 150 to like 250 range for a while now maybe there's an argument to say like it's trending lower I think if you pull up the charts of payrolls it's trending lower but it's not enough yet Doge is going to have an impact as well right?

37:00there's definitely like some specific things there it's not just like a slowdown it feels like you know if they're going to fire tens of thousands of employees it's going to have an impact yeah so yeah i'm like i'm not that worried about macro i think it's natural to have a sell-off at some point given the insane and we've had crazy moves in nasdaq for two years in a row like up 40 % whatever it was in 2023 I think and then up 25 % or something or 30 % last year like these are the same moves but can't deny AI creating massive efficient technological efficiency you can't like moving NVIDIA is perhaps somewhat warranted like those numbers are real numbers that they're reporting.

37:46So I think it's just a correction. I'm not worried about, not worried. The situation we're in right now is we have inflation at what, like three odd percent. The base rate is what, four and a quarter, four and a half.

38:11And economy is still growing and job data generally has been relatively strong. Like that's a pretty, that's not a bad position to be in. Yes, people are worried things could get worse, but compare that to 2022 when inflation was, you know, what, eight, seven, 8 % to start the year, it went as high as 9 % almost. And the base rate was what, quarter to a half, something like that. But that's like a horrifically worse position to be in because you have low interest rates and you have super high inflation and then you have to go through this whole process of raising it and it's going to hurt the economy.

38:43And we sort of got bailed out by the AI boom. So I think where we're at now compared to then, and I say that because people still seem to have 2022, end of 21, 22 PTSD, because it wasn't that long ago. And especially for crypto, we got mega nuked as well. So people still have that PTSD and they often make that comparison. but I don't think the market is in as nearly as bad place now as it was then. And that's a really important thing to remember, just to get your head out of like this microcosm of the last two months of price action and zoom out to what's actually happened in the last few years.